Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread as Pakistan mediates, Hormuz stays shut

The Hormuz standoff — where everything connects

The US-Iran war — which began when the US and Israel struck Iran in late February and paused under a ceasefire in early April — is now in its most delicate phase. Eighty-five days in, the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally flows, remains mostly closed. [5]

Both governments said this weekend they are “getting closer” to a deal. Trump told CBS News he had seen a draft agreement and that negotiators were “getting a lot closer.” [16,17] Iran’s foreign ministry said positions had been “converging” over the past week and described a 14-point framework being finalised, with follow-on talks expected within 30 to 60 days. [17] Mediators told the Financial Times that the two sides are close to extending the ceasefire by 60 days. [43]

But the gaps are real and they are large. Iran’s top negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, told Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir — who flew to Tehran on Saturday as the leading outside mediator — that the US is “not an honest party” in the talks and that Tehran “will not compromise on its national rights.” [29,41] Iran’s foreign ministry said nuclear issues are not on the table in the current round; Tehran wants the shooting stopped first, sanctions lifted, and the Strait freed before it will discuss enriched uranium. [16] The US position, as Rubio stated it, is the opposite: Iran must hand over its highly enriched uranium and Hormuz must reopen without Iranian tolls. [17]

Israel is watching these talks with alarm. Israeli security officials told Haaretz they believe Iran is misleading the US negotiating team, and they fear Trump may accept a limited interim deal — reopening the Strait in exchange for partial sanction relief — while leaving the nuclear question unresolved. Their concern: once a ceasefire locks in, it becomes very hard to resume fighting under an incomplete agreement. [10]

What’s actually moving: US Central Command says its blockade of Iranian ports has allowed “zero trade into and out of Iranian ports” since April 13. [17] Iran’s parliament speaker said the military has “rebuilt itself” during the ceasefire and that any resumed US strikes would face a “more crushing and bitter” response. [12] Pakistan’s Munir, whom Trump has called his “favourite field marshal,” also met Iran’s president and foreign minister on Saturday before leaving Tehran. Qatar’s emir spoke with Trump about stabilising the ceasefire. [41] The next few days are what both sides are watching.

The energy cost of all this is landing on ordinary people far from the Gulf. US pump prices sit at $4.55 per gallon nationally — up roughly $1.50 from before the war. Energy analysts say even a peace deal announced tomorrow would not bring that number back to $3 this year: Gulf oil infrastructure takes weeks to restart, ships need repositioning, and refineries need time to heat up. [3] India, which imports more than 80% of its energy needs, is among the hardest hit. US Secretary of State Rubio arrived in Kolkata on Saturday for a four-day visit, with energy sales high on the agenda — though analysts note that American supply is a longer and more expensive route for India than the Gulf supplies it has lost. [6,18]

The dispute over who controls the Strait has also reached the UN. France has drafted a Security Council resolution proposing an international shipping mission; a competing US-Bahraini proposal faces likely vetoes from Russia and China. [5]

Ukraine keeps hitting Russia’s energy lifeline

While diplomacy dominates the Gulf, Ukraine is running a parallel strategy against Russia’s war economy — and this week it went deep.

Ukrainian drones struck the Metafrax Chemical plant in Russia’s Perm region, 1,700km from the Ukrainian border, halting production at a facility that supplies components for Russian aircraft, drone engines, missile engines, and explosives. Zelenskyy announced the strike himself, saying production had now stopped. [1] Separately, drones hit an oil refinery in Yaroslavl, about 700km from the border, and caused a fire at an oil terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia’s major Black Sea port, injuring two people. [4,7,60] Ukraine’s defence ministry said 11 Russian oil facilities had been hit in May alone. [7]

Russia’s response to a separate incident was sharper. Putin ordered retaliation after blaming Ukraine for a strike on a student dormitory in Starobilsk, in the Russian-controlled Luhansk region. Russia’s emergency ministry said 48 casualties were recorded, including 12 dead. [1] Ukraine denied targeting civilians, saying it struck an elite drone command unit in the area. At a UN Security Council emergency meeting, Ukraine’s ambassador called Russia’s accusations “a pure propaganda show.” [7] The BBC could not independently verify the building’s use — and that dispute matters, because it is Russia’s stated justification for whatever it orders next.

On the battlefield and in Brussels: Zelenskyy wrote to EU leaders this week arguing that “the time is right” to begin Ukraine’s formal accession process. He called the alternative — associate membership without voting rights — “unfair” and said it would leave Ukraine “voiceless.” [1] The push is newly possible because Hungary’s former prime minister Viktor Orbán, who had used Budapest’s EU veto to repeatedly block Ukraine’s bid and stall aid, was ousted in elections earlier this month. With that veto gone, €90bn in European economic support has been unblocked, expected to cover Ukraine’s budget through the end of 2027. [2] Zelenskyy also reported that Ukraine has retaken 590 square kilometres of territory since the start of the year. [1]

A Russian drone killed one person and wounded nine at a funeral near Ukraine’s Sumy overnight — mourners gathered to bury someone else. [74]

Gaza ceasefire fraying, flotilla scandal deepens

The Gaza ceasefire — declared last October — is holding in name more than in practice. Israel’s air force struck a police post in northern Gaza, killing five officers. [21,25] Lebanon’s health ministry said 12 people were killed by Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours; Hezbollah fired at least four explosive drones into northern Israel, though no one was hurt. [69]

The US-backed “Board of Peace” — an oversight body launched by Trump in January to manage Gaza reconstruction — came under criticism this week after its envoy Nickolay Mladenov told the UN Security Council that Hamas was the “principal obstacle” to the ceasefire. Critics say Israel has been the main violator: it has moved forward from the agreed ceasefire line, expanding its direct control from 53% to at least 60% of Gaza, regularly shooting at Palestinians who approach the shifting boundary. More than 850 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire was declared. Israel has also fallen far short of the agreed 600 trucks of humanitarian supplies per day. [22]

The Gaza flotilla affair is generating its own diplomatic fallout. Activists on the Global Sumud Flotilla — intercepted in international waters last Monday — began returning home. At least 15 detainees reported sexual assault, including rape, while in Israeli custody. [5,12] France banned far-right Israeli national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from its territory after he posted a video taunting handcuffed activists kneeling on the ground. Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the video had “shocked the world” and “accelerated” EU-level mood for action against Israel. [23,44] Even Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly criticised Ben-Gvir’s conduct, calling it “not in line with Israel’s values.” [44]

Senegal loses its prime minister — and its IMF deal may follow

Senegal, a West African nation of 17 million people, woke on Friday to find its government dissolved. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye sacked Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and dismissed the entire cabinet in a decree read out on state television. [35,52,64]

The split matters far beyond Senegalese politics. The country’s debt reached 132% of GDP at the end of 2024 after a previous government hid misreported borrowing — a discovery that caused the IMF, the world’s lender of last resort, to freeze a $1.8bn lending programme. Without that money, Senegal cannot stabilise its finances. Faye’s finance minister had just told parliament that talks with the IMF were set to resume the week of June 8. Sacking the prime minister the same day injects fresh uncertainty into those negotiations. [35]

Sonko is a complicated figure: enormously popular with Senegal’s youth, he was barred from the 2024 election by a defamation conviction, backed Faye instead, and served as prime minister after they both won — they had been in prison until ten days before the election. His party, Pastef, dominates the National Assembly, meaning Faye may now face a parliament controlled by his former ally turned rival. Sonko’s next move is unknown. [35,64]

China: 90 dead in a coal mine, tech stocks sliding

A gas explosion at a coal mine in Shanxi province, in central China, killed at least 90 people — the deadliest mine accident in China in more than a decade. State media reported executives from the mining company have been detained. [34,50]

China’s bigger economic story is slower-burning. The country’s largest tech companies — including Tencent, Alibaba, and electric vehicle maker BYD — have seen their share prices slide as deflationary pressure from weak domestic demand cancels out the gains from last year’s artificial intelligence boom driven by Chinese AI firm DeepSeek. [37] BYD’s first-quarter profit fell 55% year on year. Tencent and Alibaba’s sales figures disappointed investors. The AI hype is still real; the domestic spending to sustain it is not. [37]

Ebola is spreading faster than Congo can contain it

The Democratic Republic of Congo, a country the size of Western Europe with a healthcare system wrecked by decades of conflict, is fighting its 17th Ebola outbreak. This one involves the Bundibugyo strain — a rare variant with no approved vaccine that kills roughly a third of those infected. [86]

Nearly 750 suspected cases and more than 170 suspected deaths have been recorded since the first known victim died in April in the city of Bunia, in Ituri province. The virus spread at a funeral when mourners touched the body. It has since reached North Kivu and South Kivu, parts of which are controlled by the M23 rebel group, complicating any response. [61,86]

Three Red Cross volunteers died after handling bodies before the outbreak was even identified. Hospitals are full. An MSF treatment tent was burned by an angry crowd in Mongbwalu — the outbreak’s epicentre — on Friday. The day before, a crowd set part of a hospital on fire after being told they could not take a body for burial. [86] The WHO raised the risk assessment from “high” to “very high” nationally, and from “moderate” to “high” regionally. It declared an emergency of international concern. Uganda has confirmed five cases. The Africa CDC says ten other countries are at risk. [70,86,87]

The US has now banned green-card holders who have visited the DRC, Uganda, or South Sudan in the past 21 days from entering the country. Enhanced Ebola screening has been expanded to Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson airport. [70]

The story nobody’s covering

The NPT review conference — the five-yearly gathering where the nearly 200 nations that have signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the main international agreement preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, are supposed to reaffirm shared goals — ended in failure on Friday. Vietnam’s conference president said the meeting “is not in a position to achieve agreement on its substantive work.” It is the third consecutive review conference to collapse without a final document, following 2015 and 2022. [15,26]

The timing could not be worse. The US is at war with Iran partly over its nuclear programme. North Korea has been sharing weapons technology with Russia. The Hormuz crisis has driven up oil prices and demonstrated how vulnerable the global economy is to conflict near nuclear states. And yet the international forum designed to prevent exactly this kind of proliferation spiral can no longer agree on a statement. One arms control analyst quoted in reporting on the failure said the treaty “keeps on becoming less and less anchored in reality.” [26] This is the scaffolding of nuclear order quietly falling apart — and it barely made the news.