Daylila

Briefing · Wednesday, 27 May 2026

US strikes Iran during peace talks as Hormuz deal remains days away

World News 9 min 105 sources

The US military hit missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran on Monday — the first strikes since the April ceasefire — killing four Iranian soldiers, as talks in Qatar crept toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Russia simultaneously threatened systematic bombardment of Kyiv and ordered foreign diplomats out, drawing EU and UN rebukes. A record European heatwave killed at least seven in France. And Sudan's war gained a new dimension with allegations that the UAE trained Colombian mercenaries for the RSF.

US strikes Iran during peace talks as Hormuz deal remains days away

The Hormuz gamble — strikes during negotiations

On Monday, the US military hit missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines in southern Iran’s Hormozgan region — the first strikes since a ceasefire took hold on 8 April, about seven weeks ago. [62] Four members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, a branch of the military that controls the Strait of Hormuz, were killed. [64] The Strait is the narrow chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes; Iran has effectively blocked it since the US and Israel began the war in late February.

The timing was jarring. Iran’s top negotiators — foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati — were in Doha, Qatar, for talks with Qatari and Pakistani mediators on a framework to end the conflict. [48] Tehran condemned the strikes as “a gross violation” of the ceasefire and “an act of bad faith,” but crucially did not pull its delegation out of the talks. [95] Iran’s military announced no specific reprisals, suggesting it wants the negotiation to survive. Brent crude climbed 4% on news of the renewed fighting. [96]

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters from his plane in India, said a deal is still possible but will “take a few days.” [48] He described the strikes as purely defensive. The main remaining sticking points are the method of releasing more than $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets held abroad, what constraints Iran accepts on its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the timeline for reopening the strait. [96] A tanker also reported an external explosion off the Oman coast, roughly 60 nautical miles from Muscat, hours after the US strikes — no crew casualties, cause unclear. [59]

The internal politics on both sides are pulling against a deal. Republican hawks in Washington say the emerging terms look too close to the 2015 Obama nuclear deal that Trump previously scrapped. [64] Hardliners in Tehran are demanding Iran keep formal control of the strait as a condition of any agreement. [96] Iran also began partially restoring its internet, which has been under near-total blackout since the war started in late February. [63]

What is now in motion: markets are pricing in a deal within the week — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs on Tuesday partly on that hope [2] — but each new skirmish resets the clock. The number to watch is whether Hormuz shipping resumes within the 30-day window that would reportedly follow any agreement.

Russia threatens Kyiv, diplomats refuse to leave

On Sunday, Russia fired nearly 600 drones and 90 missiles at Kyiv, one of the largest single barrages of the nearly five-year war. Thirty-five missiles hit their targets, including a DW bureau; 87 people were injured. [3] Russia also used at least one Oreshnik hypersonic missile — a weapon fitted with six warheads that current air defences cannot intercept. [5]

Then the Kremlin escalated rhetorically. Moscow announced it would conduct “consistent, systematic strikes” on Kyiv’s defence industrial complex and told all foreign citizens and diplomats to leave “as soon as possible.” [13] The EU summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires in Brussels and Germany summoned Russia’s ambassador in Berlin, both rejecting the demand. [3] EU ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová stated simply: “The EU is not going anywhere.” [13] UN Secretary-General António Guterres told a special General Assembly session — chaired, pointedly, by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi — that he was “deeply concerned” by Russia’s announced plan. [40]

Why now? Russia’s battlefield progress has stalled. Military analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War assess that the war’s character is “shifting in favour of Ukrainian forces — at least for now,” with Russian casualties outpacing monthly recruitment figures for five consecutive months. [5] Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak told the BBC: “When you have problems with the economy and Russian society, then there’s pressure for revenge.” [5] The evacuation demand appears designed to isolate Kyiv diplomatically and pressure European governments rather than signal a genuine new military phase.

Russia’s business lobby is also telling Putin the war is hurting at home. The head of Russia’s Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs asked Putin this week for permission to buy heavier weapons — including laser systems and electronic warfare gear — to defend factories that Ukraine’s long-range drones have been hitting throughout the year. [70]

Gaza, Lebanon, and the spreading geometry of Middle Eastern war

Gaza. Israel struck a residential building in central Gaza City on Tuesday, targeting Mohammed Odeh, the newly appointed commander of Hamas’s armed wing — only 11 days after Israel killed his predecessor in a similar strike. At least three people were killed and dozens injured. Witnesses said five missiles hit the building nearly simultaneously. [26] It is not confirmed whether Odeh died. Hamas’s health ministry reports more than 800 Palestinian deaths during the ceasefire period, which Israel says it has legal authority to continue under the terms of the agreement. [26]

Lebanon. Israel expanded its ground operations in southern Lebanon beyond a self-declared buffer zone known as the “Yellow Line” — a demarcation Israel set up roughly 10 kilometres inside Lebanese territory after an April ceasefire with Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. [47] The Israeli military said the move was needed to address Hezbollah’s drone threat. Hezbollah’s casualties from fibre-optic guided drones — whose wire-guided systems defeat standard jamming — have now surpassed Israeli deaths from ballistic missiles in the current phase of the conflict. [51] Hezbollah has threatened to topple Lebanon’s government if Israel pushes further. [100] Lebanon says 28 people were killed in Israeli strikes over the past 24 hours. [47]

The thread connecting these fronts: a US-Iran agreement would create pressure to end the Israel-Lebanon fighting too, which is why both sides are intensifying now, before any deal is signed.

A May heatwave that is breaking records and killing people

Western Europe is in the grip of an exceptional heat event. On Monday, the UK recorded 34.8°C (94.6°F) at Kew Gardens in southwest London — two degrees above the previous May record. France’s national weather service called Monday “the hottest day recorded for the month of May since measurements began.” [11] Paris hit 34°C on Tuesday. [7] A “heat dome” of air driven north from Africa is holding temperatures 10–15 degrees Celsius above normal for this time of year across France, Spain, Germany, and Italy.

Seven people have died in France from heat-related causes. [15] Two women died during outdoor competitive runs earlier in the week. Spain is forecast to reach 40°C later this week. Italy has already imposed restrictions on outdoor work. [11]

London normally averages around 17°C in late May. The Met Office called this week’s overnight low provisionally “the highest minimum temperature for May ever recorded in the UK” — what meteorologists call a “tropical night.” [11]

Scientists say Europe is warming faster than the global average. This is the practical consequence: infrastructure, hospitals, and housing designed for a different climate are now failing in real time. [11]

Sudan’s war acquires a mercenary trail

A detailed investigation by AP, published Tuesday, accuses the UAE, the wealthy Gulf state, of training Colombian mercenaries to fight alongside the RSF — the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group that has been fighting Sudan’s national army in a civil war that has caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises since it began in April 2023. [6]

Sudan is not getting much coverage, but the accusation matters for two reasons. First, if confirmed, it shows a Gulf state is directly prolonging a conflict that has driven more than 10 million people from their homes. Second, the use of Colombian mercenaries — veterans of that country’s long internal conflict — as a procurement model is a new and poorly documented pattern in African proxy warfare. [6]

The UAE has not commented publicly on the allegations.

What the world’s money is doing

Markets are being pulled in two directions simultaneously. War-driven energy inflation is pushing interest rates up; AI-driven corporate earnings are pushing stock prices up. Tuesday saw both forces at work.

US stocks reached new record highs, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all climbing on hopes of an Iran deal and on strong AI-related earnings — first-quarter earnings growth came in at 29% year-on-year, nearly double what analysts had forecast a month earlier. [9] Semiconductor stocks led gains: Marvell Technology rose 5.7% in premarket trading. [9]

But bond markets are telling a different story. The gap between 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields — a measure of how much extra return investors demand for tying up money for longer — narrowed to its tightest point in a year, a signal that investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates “higher for longer.” [4] Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair last Friday; markets currently price in one rate hike by December rather than the two cuts they expected at the start of the year. [9] Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is running out of tools to push yields back down, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of the situation. [14]

The African Development Bank, meanwhile, cut its 2026 growth forecast for the African continent — 54 nations — to 4.2% from last year’s 4.4%, directly blaming the Middle East crisis for driving up fuel and fertiliser costs. [25]

The story nobody’s covering

Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan is on a rare five-day diplomatic tour that includes North Korea — his first official visit there since 2018, when Singapore hosted the Trump-Kim summit. [76] The visit is not being widely reported, but Singapore is one of the very few countries with open diplomatic channels to Pyongyang. North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile on Tuesday, which South Korea tracked. The combination — a Singapore diplomatic probe and a missile test in the same week — suggests something is in motion on the Korean peninsula that isn’t yet legible in the news cycle. North Korea’s relationship with Russia has deepened significantly since 2024, and any shift in Pyongyang’s posture now carries broader implications. This is worth watching before it becomes obvious.

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