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Briefing · Friday, 29 May 2026

A 60-day Iran truce takes shape — but nothing is settled yet

World News 10 min 105 sources

US and Iranian negotiators agreed Thursday on a framework to extend their ceasefire for 60 days and open nuclear talks, but Trump has not signed off and fresh strikes continued around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile Netanyahu announced plans to seize 70% of Gaza in breach of a US-brokered deal, the Iran war's oil shock drove US inflation to a three-year high, Ukraine locked in a €90 billion EU loan, and an Ebola outbreak in Congo widened enough to shut Uganda's border.

A 60-day Iran truce takes shape — but nothing is settled yet

The Iran deal that almost is

US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreement Thursday on a 60-day extension of their ceasefire and a framework to restart talks on Iran’s nuclear programme. The deal has not been signed. Trump was briefed and “wants a couple of days to think about it,” according to a US official cited by Axios and confirmed by BBC sources [68,60]. Iranian state media said nothing had been finalised [92].

The context: the US and Israel launched a war on Iran on 28 February 2026. A ceasefire took effect on 8 April. Since then both sides have continued trading strikes, and the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage between Iran and Oman through which about a fifth of all oil and gas normally flows — has remained effectively closed [17,14]. The Hormuz blockade is now the single biggest driver of energy prices worldwide.

Thursday illustrated how fragile the ceasefire already was. The US struck a military site in Bandar Abbas, the strategic Iranian port city. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it retaliated by targeting an American air base; a ballistic missile was intercepted over Kuwait [17,51,65]. Both sides accused the other of violations. Brent crude jumped 3.75% to $97.83 a barrel on the news before easing as deal reports circulated [17,21].

The contours of the reported deal include unrestricted passage through Hormuz, Iran having 30 days to remove mines from the strait, lifting of the US naval blockade, and sanctions waivers allowing Iran to resume oil sales [68]. Trump also threatened, in a cabinet meeting this week, to “blow up” Oman — a Gulf state of 5.3 million people that has mediated in the conflict — if it did not “behave” over shipping arrangements [62,72]. Iran called the threat “dangerous and bullying” [65].

Trump faces a genuine bind. The economic cost of a closed Hormuz is landing directly on American voters: US inflation, measured by the PCE index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of price pressures — rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, the fastest pace in three years, driven by a 12.3% monthly spike in gasoline prices [73]. Real household income fell for a third straight month. Republican hawks in the Senate are calling the rumoured 60-day deal a “disaster” [71]. The November midterm elections are five months away.

What is not yet known: whether Trump will approve the deal, whether Iran’s leadership will confirm it, and whether Israel — which has separately escalated in Gaza and Lebanon — will accept the conditions reportedly attached. A halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon is said to be one term; Netanyahu has shown no sign of accepting that [71].

Netanyahu’s Gaza announcement breaks the framework

On Thursday, speaking at a conference in an occupied West Bank settlement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered his military to seize 70% of the Gaza Strip. Israel currently controls an estimated 60% — already well beyond the 53% permitted under the US-brokered ceasefire signed in October 2025 [3,4,6,7].

“We were at fifty, we moved to sixty. My directive is to move to seventy. Let’s start with that,” Netanyahu said [3,7]. When an audience member called for 100%, he responded: “First 70%.”

The October 2025 ceasefire — brokered by the Trump administration and endorsed by the UN Security Council — was meant to freeze territorial positions, release hostages, and eventually lead to Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal. None of those subsequent steps have happened. Hamas refused to disarm. Israel kept striking and kept moving the “yellow line,” the boundary marked on maps separating Israeli-controlled from Hamas-controlled territory [4,6].

The human cost since the ceasefire: at least 738 Palestinians killed according to the Hamas-run health ministry — a figure the UN considers reliable — with 16 killed in just the past two days [7,22]. That brings total deaths in Gaza since October 2023 to over 72,700 [7]. Israel’s defence minister this week also said the government intends to implement a plan for large-scale Palestinian emigration from Gaza, which human rights organisations describe as forced displacement [4,7].

At the same time, the promised international stabilisation force for Gaza — announced with fanfare at a Trump “Board of Peace” summit in February — has collapsed before it started. Indonesia, which had pledged 8,000 of the planned 20,000 troops, put its commitment on indefinite hold after the US-Iran war began. The war is deeply unpopular across the Muslim world, and countries willing to cooperate openly with the US and Israel have narrowed sharply [36,55]. No country has made a significant troop contribution.

Israel is simultaneously escalating in Lebanon. The IDF declared all of southern Lebanon a combat zone this week, struck a Hezbollah target in Beirut, and carried out more than 135 strikes in southern Lebanon in 24 hours [61,67]. At least 14 people were killed Thursday. Over a million Lebanese have been displaced since fighting resumed in March [62]. The US has been pressing Israel to halt strikes on the Qaraoun Dam — which provides 15% of Lebanon’s electricity — ahead of any truce talks [66].

The UN separately added Israel to its annual blacklist of parties credibly accused of committing sexual violence in conflict zones, citing verified cases against Palestinian detainees. Israel froze relations with the UN Secretary-General’s office in response [75,85].

Hormuz is reshaping everything downstream

The closed strait is not a Middle Eastern problem. It is rewiring global supply chains.

Jet fuel, which normally moved efficiently through Hormuz, is now being shipped on record voyages. One tanker, the Nord Ventura, sailed from Louisiana to Melbourne — a journey of more than a month — to deliver 300,000 barrels, the first such US-to-Australia shipment since at least 2017 [28]. European jet fuel prices hit $200 a barrel in April, a record. Analysts warn that if disruption continues through August, real supply tightages will emerge [28].

Ukraine is among the less-obvious casualties. US Democrats in Congress told Zelenskyy this week that weapons needed in the Persian Gulf cannot simultaneously go to Ukraine. Representative Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House intelligence committee, said the Iran conflict “needs to be brought to a close yesterday” partly because “the material being used in the Persian Gulf right now needs to be provided to Ukraine” [12]. A new analysis found the US will need years to replenish stockpiles of advanced weapons consumed by the Iran war [1].

Ukraine ratified a €90 billion EU loan on Thursday — 298 votes in favour, well above the required 226 — allowing it to fund a record defence budget of around $100 billion this year, up from a previously planned $64 billion [38]. First disbursements of €3.2 billion are expected in June. The money is conditional on anti-corruption reforms. Brussels also plans to open formal EU membership negotiations with Ukraine in June [40].

Separately, Sweden announced it will donate 16 existing Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, with delivery in early 2027, and that Ukraine could purchase up to 150 of the more advanced Gripen E model with deliveries starting in 2030. The Gripen can carry European-made Meteor air-to-air missiles, an important capability [12,77].

Russian drones struck a residential building in Galati, Romania — a city close to the Ukrainian border — injuring two people and forcing the evacuation of about 70 residents [53]. Russia has also threatened foreign diplomats in Kyiv with missile strikes; the US embassy said it is staying open [42].

The price of the war, in numbers

US PCE inflation — PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures, the measure used by the Federal Reserve to track price pressures against its 2% target — rose 3.8% in April year-on-year, the biggest jump in three years [73]. Gasoline prices are up more than 50% since the war started in late February. US GDP growth in the first quarter was revised down to 1.6%. Real household incomes fell for a third consecutive month.

The global pressure is feeding into decisions far removed from the battlefield. China’s central bank — the PBOC, the People’s Bank of China — privately instructed commercial banks to push more loans out in May, because credit demand is weakening as the energy crisis saps growth [33]. The EU’s six largest economies struck a deal Thursday to integrate European capital markets more tightly, partly driven by the need to fund defence and reduce exposure to energy shocks [44]. The EU also fined Chinese online retailer Temu €200 million for allowing dangerous products — baby toys with choking hazards, faulty chargers — on its platform [88].

Taiwan secured an important trade cushion this week. Its vice premier confirmed that a January deal with the US means Taiwan will receive preferential treatment under any future American semiconductor tariffs imposed under Section 232, a US national-security trade investigation. TSMC, Taiwan’s dominant chipmaker and the world’s largest contract manufacturer, is already investing $165 billion in Arizona factories [5].

Ebola widens in Congo

Uganda closed its border with the Democratic Republic of Congo on Thursday as a rare and incurable strain of Ebola — the Bundibugyo variety, for which no vaccine yet exists — continues to spread through Congo’s Ituri province, a mineral-rich region in the northeast wracked by armed conflict [41,74]. The WHO, the World Health Organization, has recorded 10 confirmed and 223 suspected deaths since the outbreak was declared on 15 May, out of more than 1,000 confirmed and suspected cases [74].

The WHO’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, arrived in Congo’s capital Kinshasa on Thursday and was due to travel to Ituri on Friday. “That thing can be stopped,” he said, but called on armed groups in the region to declare a ceasefire because fighting is blocking medical relief [74]. Four medical staff at a single hospital died of the disease in four days; three Red Cross volunteers died while moving bodies [80].

The outbreak is already a global health emergency. The armed conflict in Ituri makes containment structurally harder than in any previous outbreak: health workers cannot safely reach patients, patients cannot safely reach facilities, and bodies go unmoved. Track this — the combination of no vaccine, active conflict zone, and a border closure that will affect trade between Uganda and Congo is one to watch as the rainy season approaches.

The story nobody’s covering

Japan’s shift from arms importer to arms exporter is accelerating faster than it has been reported. Just a month after Tokyo lifted post-World War II restrictions on weapons exports — a pacifist constitutional commitment held for eight decades — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited Tokyo on Thursday for a summit focused on accelerating weapons sales [29,76]. The two countries discussed potential transfers of up to six Abukuma-class destroyers, TC-90 training aircraft, and Type-88 surface-to-ship missiles [29]. This is the first Philippine state visit to Japan in over a decade.

The significance goes beyond one deal. Japan is now positioned to become a major defence exporter alongside South Korea, with Southeast Asian nations actively seeking alternatives to US dependence and Chinese pressure in the South China Sea. The energy crisis and Iran war have reinforced Tokyo’s interest in tightening security ties with countries that share its vulnerability to supply disruptions. The Shangri-La Dialogue — Asia’s premier security summit — opens in Singapore on Friday, with a Chinese military university delegation attending for the first time in years [5]. Watch who talks to whom in Singapore this weekend.

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