the 20 games on Circana's 2024 US chart: all from names buyers knew
A company can make a new idea or part nine of a known name. Circana counts game sales; its 2024 US chart lists twenty best-sellers. By our count every entry was a sequel, a yearly sports game or a name buyers knew. Companies that keep sales private are left off; the new hit Black Myth: Wukong is missing.
Shoppers who already know a known name70 of 100, made up
Shoppers who already know a new name0 of 100, made up
The reason is simple. Picture 100 shoppers. A game with a known name is already in their heads: they know what it is before the advert. A new name has to be explained to every one of them. So a known name is cheaper to sell and safer to bet on, and companies bet on it.
Shoppers100
++
A known namealready in their heads
++
A new namemust be explained
Why is a known name easier to sell than a new idea?
Buyers already know what it is, so less has to be explained to them.
Right. That is the whole advantage. The name does the explaining the advert would otherwise have to do, and it has done it for years.
It is cheaper to make.
Not yet. A sequel may reuse tools and cost a bit less to build, but that is not the big saving. The big saving is in the selling: buyers already know what it is.
A known name is always the better game.
Not yet. Quality is not what the name sells. A known name can be a worse game than a new one and still sell more, because buyers know what it is.
The last part sold
↓→
A date is set
↓→
Then a story
So the sale comes first and the story second. A sequel is ordered because the last part sold, often before anyone knows what it will be about. A date is set. A budget is set. Then a story has to be found that fits the date, the budget and the name.
Put in order how a sequel usually begins.
Tap them in the order they happen, first to last. Each tap gets a number.
Sold→Dated→Written
Right. Sale, date, story. The story is last because it is the only part that can be bent to fit the others. A date and a budget are promises to the company; the story's promises are to readers.
1987married
↓→
2007the sale wants him single
↓→
The dealit never happened
Here is where a promise breaks. Sometimes the story that would sell is the one an old promise forbids. In 1987 Marvel married Spider-Man to Mary Jane. Twenty years on, Marvel's editor-in-chief said he wanted a single Spider-Man again, so in 2007 a deal with a devil made the marriage never have happened.
Set how much an old promise is worth to readers against how big the sale is that breaking it would bring. See how many of 100 companies keep the promise. Made up to show the shape.
Keep the promise90 of 100 companies, made up
Break it10 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: A little · The sale is: Small
The promise is worth a little to readers and the sale is small: 90 of 100 keep the promise.
Keep the promise70 of 100 companies, made up
Break it30 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: A little · The sale is: Medium
The promise is worth a little to readers and the sale is medium: 70 of 100 keep the promise.
Keep the promise30 of 100 companies, made up
Break it70 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: A little · The sale is: Big
The promise is worth a little to readers and the sale is big: 30 of 100 keep the promise. Most break it. Nobody will miss it, and the money is real.
Keep the promise95 of 100 companies, made up
Break it5 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: A lot · The sale is: Small
The promise is worth a lot to readers and the sale is small: 95 of 100 keep the promise.
Keep the promise85 of 100 companies, made up
Break it15 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: A lot · The sale is: Medium
The promise is worth a lot to readers and the sale is medium: 85 of 100 keep the promise.
Keep the promise55 of 100 companies, made up
Break it45 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: A lot · The sale is: Big
The promise is worth a lot to readers and the sale is big: 55 of 100 keep the promise.
Keep the promise99 of 100 companies, made up
Break it1 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: Everything · The sale is: Small
The promise is worth everything to readers and the sale is small: 99 of 100 keep the promise. Almost all keep it. There is nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Keep the promise95 of 100 companies, made up
Break it5 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: Everything · The sale is: Medium
The promise is worth everything to readers and the sale is medium: 95 of 100 keep the promise.
Keep the promise80 of 100 companies, made up
Break it20 of 100 companies, made up
The promise is worth: Everything · The sale is: Big
The promise is worth everything to readers and the sale is big: 80 of 100 keep the promise. Even now, one in five breaks it. A big enough sale finds a way.
When is a promise most likely to be broken?
Always, if there is any money in breaking it.
Not yet. A promise worth little and a small sale: 90 of 100 keep it. A company does not break a promise for nothing; it breaks one when the sale is big enough to pay for the anger.
Never, if the promise matters to readers.
Not yet. Set the promise to worth everything and the sale to big: 80 of 100 keep it, so 20 break it. A promise readers love is broken less often. It is still broken.
When the sale is big and the promise is worth little. Even a promise worth everything loses one time in five to a big sale.
Right. A promise worth little against a big sale is the lowest setting, and a promise worth everything against a big sale is not safe either. Money moves the number at every worth; the worth only decides how far.
Move both controls.
The date
↓→
Whoever is there
↓→
The story
A story written to a date is written by whoever is in the room on that date. The last part's writers may have left. The next lesson is about them. For now, hold the first cause of a tangle: the sale is ordered first, and the story must fit it.
Part sixthe hero dies
↓→
Part seventhe hero on the poster
A hero died on screen in part six. Part seven is announced with that hero on the poster. What most likely happened?
It is a different hero with the same name.
Not yet. Possible, and readers would feel cheated by it. Far more often the same hero returns, and the writers owe an explanation for the death.
The sale wanted the hero. The story will find a way to bring them back.
Right. The poster was made before the story was. A name that sells does not stay dead; chapter 3 is about the ways back.
The death in part six must have been a trick all along.
Not yet. It may be explained that way now, but that is the fix, not the cause. The cause is that part seven sells better with the hero on it.
Lesson complete
A known name sells more safely than a new idea. The sale comes first; the story is fitted after.