You tap the chest. It shakes. It glows. A drum rolls for five seconds. Then the item appears. The game chose the item the instant you tapped. The five seconds were added afterwards, on purpose.
The rare colour flashes
↓→
A common item lands
A near miss, written into the animation.
The show is borrowed from slot machines. Lights, sound, and a near miss: the rare colour flashes on the box, and then a common item drops out. Studies of slot machines found that a near miss makes people play on more than a plain loss does. Games use it too.
At the tap
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During the shake
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When the item shows
When does the game decide what is in the chest?
When the item appears, at the very end.
Not yet. The end is when you are told. The choosing happened five seconds earlier, at the tap.
At the tap, before anything moves.
Right. The draw is a line of code that runs in an instant. The shaking box is a film of a decision already made.
During the shake. The box is still deciding.
Not yet. The box is not deciding anything. It is playing an animation that was chosen to match a result the game already holds.
Belgium, 2018gambling
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Most countriesno ruling yet
Paying money for a chance at something is what most countries call gambling, and gambling has an age limit. In 2018 Belgium ruled that paid chests in three big games were gambling under its law, and those games switched the chests off there. Most countries have not ruled, and the argument goes on.
Slide the marker to how many young people in Britain aged 11 to 16 who play games had paid to open a chest, in every 100, in a 2019 survey.
Slide the marker to your guess, then lock it. Nothing is scored.
123
you said · 0 in every 100
actually · 23 in every 100
0 in every 10050 in every 100100 in every 100
1One in four25 in every 100
2Half50 in every 100
3Three in four75 in every 100
Young players who had paid to open a chest, of every 100: —
Nearly one in four had paid money for a chance, at an age where a casino would not let them in the door. Most had not, but the chest is not a rare thing in a young player's life.
The chanceodds, result
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The showshake, glow, sound
So a chest has two parts. The chance: the odds, and which item you got. The show: the shake, the glow, the sound, the near miss. The chance is fixed by the odds. The show is designed, and it is tested and tuned like every other part of the game.
Each of these is part of opening a chest. Is it chance, or show?
One card at a time. Tap the pile it belongs to.
Card 1 of 6
The printed line: top item, 1 in 100.
The drum roll while the box shakes.
The rare colour flashing just before a common item lands.
Which item is actually in the box.
Confetti across the screen when a friend gets a rare item.
The promise of a top item by the 90th pull.
The printed line: top item, 1 in 100. → Chance
Not yet. Chance. The odds are the rule the draw follows, and they decide how often the top item appears.
The drum roll while the box shakes. → Show
Not yet. Show. The sound changes nothing about what is inside; it is there to make the five seconds feel like something.
The rare colour flashing just before a common item lands. → Show
Not yet. Show. A near miss is drawn into the animation after the result is known. The draw did not come close to anything.
Which item is actually in the box. → Chance
Not yet. Chance. The item is the outcome of the draw, picked at random the instant you tapped.
Confetti across the screen when a friend gets a rare item. → Show
Not yet. Show. A friend's win is broadcast to you so that you see rare items landing, and the confetti is the broadcast.
The promise of a top item by the 90th pull. → Chance
Not yet. Chance. The promise is a rule of the draw itself, changing what the odds do at pull 90, and no animation is involved.
Chancewhat you get
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Showhow it feels
Right. If it changes what you get or how often, it is chance, and the odds fix it. If it changes how the opening feels, it is show, and the makers tune it. The near miss is the one that looks like chance and is show.
Put in order what happens when you open a chest.
Tap them in order, first to last.
Tap→Drawn→Shaken→Shown→Offered again
Right. The draw comes second, not fourth. Everything after it is staging, and the last step is the reason for the staging: the next chest is offered while the feeling is still there.
Beforefive seconds of show
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Afterinstant
A game removes the animation. You tap, and the item appears at once. The odds are unchanged. What changes?
Players get rare items faster.
Not yet. Rare items arrive at the same rate, 1 in 100. They arrive five seconds sooner each, and that is all.
The pull to open another chest gets weaker, while the price of a sure thing stays exactly the same.
Right. The odds set the cost and the show sets the feeling. Take away the show and the chest is just a 200-dollar hat sold in 2-dollar pieces, which is harder to keep buying.
The odds get worse, because the show was part of the draw.
Not yet. The show was never part of the draw. The result was fixed at the tap in both versions, and the odds are the same line of code.
Lesson complete
The roll is decided the instant you pay; the slow, shining opening is a show.