Sure is a feeling
- How long is the Nile?A range you are 98% sure of
Picture a quiz with ten questions like this one: how long is the River Nile? You do not give a number. You give a range, low to high, that you are 98 in 100 sure holds the true answer. Most people give a narrow range. In the studies, about a third of those ranges miss.
- Ask the questionNote how sure they say they areCount how often they were right
Being sure is a feeling. Like any feeling, it can be counted against the world. Ask a thousand people a thousand questions. Note how sure each one says they are. Then count how often they were right. Sure gets a score, and the score is a number anybody can check.
- Said 90 in 100a hundred timesRighthow many?
A person says they are 90 in 100 sure, a hundred times over. If the feeling matches the world, how many of the hundred should they get right?
About 50. Nobody really knows anything.
Not yet. Fifty is what a coin gets. A person who said ninety and scored fifty would have a feeling that tells them nothing at all.About 90.
Right. Ninety in a hundred is a claim about the count. If the feeling is honest, ninety of the hundred come out right and ten come out wrong.All 100. If you are sure, you are sure.
Not yet. Ninety in a hundred leaves ten. A person who is right every time they say ninety was more sure than they said, which is its own kind of miss. - Said 90 in 10090 in 100Were right75 in 100
General-knowledge questions, 1977 and 1982 studies. The count has been done, many times since the 1970s. When people said they were 90 in 100 sure of a general-knowledge answer, they were right about 75 times in 100. When they said they were certain, they were wrong about one time in five. The feeling runs ahead of the score.
Slide the marker to how often people who said they were 100 in 100 sure, certain, turned out to be right.
Slide the marker to where you think the answer is, then press Lock. Nothing is scored.
your guess · 50%the answer · 80%- 1Coin50%
- 2Most75%
- 3All100%
Your guess: —
About four in five. One thing in five that people were certain of was false. Guesses land near the top, because certain sounds like a stronger word than it is. Counted against the world, certain is a feeling that scores about 80.Move the control through how sure people said they were. At 70, 90 and 100 the right-answer bar is the studies' own figure for general-knowledge questions; the other points are rounded between them.
Said50 in 100Were right55 in 100How sure they said they were, in 100: 50
People who said a coin-flip, 50 in 100. They were right about 55 times in 100. Honest, near enough.
Said60 in 100Were right58 in 100How sure they said they were, in 100: 60
Said 60 in 100. Right about 58 times. Still close to honest.
Said70 in 100Were right60 in 100How sure they said they were, in 100: 70
Said 70 in 100. Right about 60 times. The gap has opened.
Said80 in 100Were right67 in 100How sure they said they were, in 100: 80
Said 80 in 100. Right about 67 times. The feeling and the score are now thirteen points apart.
Said90 in 100Were right75 in 100How sure they said they were, in 100: 90
Said 90 in 100. Right about 75 times. One answer in four was wrong, from people who were nearly certain.
Said100 in 100Were right80 in 100How sure they said they were, in 100: 100
Said 100 in 100, certain. Right about 80 times. One in five of the things people were certain of was false.
Where is the gap between the feeling and the score widest?
At the bottom. People who say 50 are just guessing.
Not yet. People who say 50 score about 55, which is the honest end of the curve. A coin-flip feeling is nearly always worth exactly what it says.At the top. The surest people have the biggest gap.
Right. At 50 the feeling and the score nearly match. At 100 they are twenty points apart. The more sure a person feels, the less the feeling can be trusted to match the count.Nowhere. The two bars rise together.
Not yet. They rise together but not at the same speed. The said bar climbs fifty points across the control; the right bar climbs twenty-five, and the gap at the top is the difference.Move the control.
- The answer came fastFeels like 95
Why does the feeling run ahead? Because it is built from the wrong thing. Sureness comes from how easily the answer arrived, which was lesson 2, and not from a count of past hits. An answer that comes smoothly feels like a 95. The smoothness was never a score.
- Certaintwenty timesWronghow many?
A friend says I am a hundred per cent sure about twenty different things this week. By the studies, what is most likely?
All twenty are right. They would not say certain otherwise.
Not yet. They said certain because the answers came easily, which is where the feeling comes from. The studies counted people exactly like this friend, and one in five was wrong.About four of the twenty are wrong.
Right. Certain scores about 80 in 100 when it is counted, so twenty certainties hold about four misses. The friend will not know which four, because they all felt the same.About ten are wrong. Certain people are usually bluffing.
Not yet. Certain is not a bluff, and it is not a coin either. It scores about 80, which is far better than a guess and well short of the word. - Said 70 in 100Rained on about 66 of those 100 days
The feeling can be trained, because it can be scored. US weather forecasters say 70 in 100 chance of rain. A 1977 study of 17,514 forecasts found it rained on about 66 of every 100 such days: close, and a little under. They are scored every day against the sky, and their sureness learned to match the count.
- 1998, certain1997 or 1998, about 70
Two people guess the year a film came out. One says 1998, certain. One says 1997 or 1998, about 70 sure. The answer is 1998. By this lesson, whose sureness is the better guide over a year of guesses?
The 70 one, because a lower number is always more honest.
Not yet. Lower is not more honest; matching the count is. A person who says 70 and is right 70 times in 100 is honest. One who says 70 and is right 95 times is also off.You cannot tell from one guess. Over a year, the certain one will be wrong about one time in five.
Right. One right answer does not score a feeling; a hundred do. The person who says certain is scored by the studies at about 80, and the person who says 70 is near the honest end of the curve.The certain one. They were right, and more confident.
Not yet. Being right once says nothing about the feeling. The studies counted certain across thousands of answers, and certain was wrong one time in five.
Lesson complete
Being sure is a feeling. Counted against the world, people who say certain are wrong about one time in five.