Biotech & Longevity · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Bristol Myers Squibb's lung-scarring drug passes its final trial, but only the lower of its two doses worked
Bristol Myers Squibb said admilparant slowed the loss of breathing in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis over a year at 60 mg while 120 mg fell short, and its radiation cancer drug RYZ101 also passed a final trial.
60 mg of 2 doses
the only dose of admilparant that clearly slowed lung decline
The 120 mg dose showed some effect, but not enough to rule out chance.
30%
fall in Contineum Therapeutics' shares on Monday morning
Its own drug of the same kind is still in a mid-stage trial.
$4.1bn
what Bristol Myers paid to buy RayzeBio, the maker of RYZ101
RYZ101 passed at a planned early look at the trial's results.
2028
when Eliquis and Opdivo, more than half of Bristol Myers' sales, could face US copies
Fierce Biotech says the two new drugs could help fill that gap.
The lead story — what happened
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Bristol Myers Squibb, one of the biggest US drugmakers, said on Monday that its drug admilparant passed a final-stage trial in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
[1] [2] -
In that disease the lungs slowly scar, and the scarring causes a loss of breathing that cannot be undone.
[5] -
Over a year, the drug slowed the fall in forced vital capacity, the amount of air a person can blow out in one go, compared with a dummy drug.
[1] -
Only the 60 mg dose did this clearly. At 120 mg the effect was too small to rule out chance.
[1] [2] -
Doctors and regulators usually look for a bigger dose to work at least as well, so an analyst at RBC Capital Markets called the result confounding.
[1] -
Bristol Myers has not shown the numbers yet. It says it will talk to regulators about asking for approval.
[2] -
Last month the company changed how the trial watched for liver harm in Europe.
[1] Its statement on Monday said the drug was well tolerated and did not mention the liver.[1] [2] -
Its shares rose more than 6% before trading opened, then fell to a loss of about 4%.
[1] Contineum Therapeutics, which tests another drug of the same kind, fell about 30%.[1] -
Drugs already sold for the disease, such as Ofev and Esbriet, slow the decline, and each has limits.
[1] [4] Endeavor BioMedicines says its experimental drug may reverse the scarring.[4] -
The same day, Bristol Myers said RYZ101, a radioactive cancer drug, kept tumours from growing for longer than standard treatments in a final-stage trial.
[2] [3] -
The trial was in rare tumours of the gut and pancreas that had grown again after radioactive drugs such as Lutathera, from Novartis.
[2] [3] -
RYZ101 carries actinium-225, which gives off alpha particles, a short-range radiation that breaks the DNA of cancer cells.
[3] -
Eliquis and Opdivo bring in more than half of Bristol Myers' sales, and both could lose their US protection from cheaper copies in 2028.
[2]
Who is involved
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Bristol Myers Squibb
one of the biggest US drugmakers; it ran both trials and owns both drugs
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Contineum Therapeutics
a small US drug company testing another drug that blocks the same lung signal; its shares fell about 30%
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Boehringer Ingelheim and Roche
German and Swiss drugmakers that sell Ofev and Esbriet, the main drugs for the disease today, which slow the decline
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Endeavor BioMedicines
a US company whose drug taladegib passed a mid-stage trial last week and is meant to reverse scarring, not only slow it
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Novartis
a Swiss drugmaker that sells Lutathera, the radioactive drug the RYZ101 patients had already had
How it unfolded
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September Bristol Myers changes how the admilparant trial watches for liver harm in Europe
[1] -
8 Oct Endeavor says its rival lung drug passed a mid-stage trial of 213 people
[4] -
12 Oct Admilparant and RYZ101 both pass final-stage trials, with no numbers shown
[1] [2] -
Next Bristol Myers talks to regulators, and analysts wait for the full results
[1] [2]
Where this points
The next test is the full data: how large the 60 mg benefit is, and what the liver results show, will decide how regulators read a win that came from the smaller dose.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
Drug sales worth more than $500 billion could face cheaper copies between 2026 and 2032, says Evaluate, a firm that tracks the drug industry.
Bristol Myers said both of its trials passed but showed no figures.
Aspen Neuroscience, which grows brain cells for Parkinson's disease, filed to sell shares while warning it has less than a year of cash.
In Wales, one woman was told she could wait up to two years for complex endometriosis surgery.
The rest of the day
13 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
Merck's eye drug loses ground in full data
Merck, a large US drugmaker, showed the full results of its eye drug remigromig at a meeting of eye doctors this weekend.
[8] The drug is for diabetic macular edema, a leak of fluid at the back of the eye in people with diabetes, and Merck paid $1.3 billion up front in 2024 for the company that made it.[8] Last month Merck said it worked no worse than Lucentis, an older injection.[8] After a year, patients gained 9.1 and 8.7 letters on an eye chart, against 11.8 on Lucentis.[8] Remigromig 0.5 mg9.1 lettersRemigromig 0.8 mg8.7 lettersLucentis11.8 lettersLetters gained on an eye chart after one year, in the same trial. Lucentis, the older drug, did best. Why it matters — New fragile blood vessels, a diabetes eye complication, appeared in 6.7% and 6.1% of patients on remigromig, against 0.9% on Lucentis.
[7] [8] Analysts at BMO said the drug looks weaker and less safe than Lucentis, while Merck says 30% to 40% of these patients are not helped enough today.[8] -
03
Tezspire puts 7 in 10 into remission
Amgen and AstraZeneca, two large drugmakers, said their drug Tezspire worked in a final-stage trial in eosinophilic esophagitis.
[7] That is an immune disease of the food pipe, the tube that carries food to the stomach.[7] Nearly 70% of patients on the highest dose were in remission after 24 weeks, against 3.5% on a dummy drug.[7] Fuller results are due at a medical meeting on Wednesday.[7] Tezspire, highest dose70%Dummy drug3.5%Share of patients in remission after 24 weeks. The 70% is the company's 'nearly 70%'. Why it matters — The figure is higher than Dupixent, the only other antibody drug approved for the disease, showed in its own trials.
[7] That comparison is across separate trials, which BioPharma Dive notes can mislead, and today's lesson explains why.[7] -
04
First drug for Alexander disease approved
The FDA, the US drug regulator, has approved Zanvastro, the first medicine aimed at the cause of Alexander disease, the University of Wisconsin-Madison announced.
[9] The disease affects fewer than one in a million people and slowly damages the nervous system, harming movement, speech and swallowing.[9] It is caused by faults in the gene for GFAP, a protein in the brain's support cells, which then builds up in harmful clumps.[9] Zanvastro, developed with Ionis Pharmaceuticals, cuts how much GFAP cells make.[9] Why it matters — In a trial of 54 patients, those treated for just over a year walked faster than those who were not.
[9] The drug is injected into the spine every three months, and the approval covers everyone from babies to adults.[9] -
05
A celiac drug protects the gut in an early trial
First Tracks Biotherapeutics, a US company, said its drug ANB033 protected the gut of people with celiac disease in an early trial.
[10] In celiac disease, eating gluten, a protein in wheat, makes the immune system attack the small intestine.[10] 32 people took the drug or a dummy for four weeks, then ate gluten equal to about two slices of bread a day for two weeks.[10] The drug beat the dummy on three measures of gut damage, with no serious side effects.[10] Why it matters — No medicine is approved for celiac disease, so a strict diet is the only treatment.
[10] Argenx and Teva are testing rival drugs of the same family, and First Tracks plans a final-stage trial in 2027.[10] [11] -
06
Kenya finds no new Ebola cases
Kenya's health ministry said on Sunday it has found no new Ebola cases since its first patient died in Nairobi on 5 October.
[12] The 40-year-old man had tested positive in Congo, where an Ebola outbreak was declared in May, and then travelled to Kenya.[12] Tests on 293 samples were all negative.[12] 108 of the 122 people on his contact list are in quarantine and have no symptoms.[12] Why it matters — Congo has recorded 8,978 cases and 4,336 deaths in this outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain, which has no treatment or vaccine.
[12] Africa's public health agency calls Kenya's case imported, not an outbreak.[12] -
07
Roche sets a July 2027 date for an eye drug
Roche, the Swiss drugmaker, said the FDA has accepted its request to approve vamikibart, with a decision due by July 2027.
[13] The drug is injected into the eye to treat uveitic macular edema, a swelling at the back of the eye caused by inflammation.[13] Roche ran two final-stage trials designed to be identical, and last year one met its main goal while the other did not.[13] New one-year data showed lasting gains in sight, and about two-thirds of patients needed no repeat injection after week 16.[13] Why it matters — About 20% of people with this condition go on to lasting blindness within three years.
[13] Today they are treated with steroids and with drugs used outside their approval, and steroids in the eye bring risks such as glaucoma and cataracts.[13] -
08
A schizophrenia drug from China passes a mid-stage test
Tortugas Neuroscience, a US start-up, said its schizophrenia drug obuprazine passed a mid-stage trial run in China by Hansoh Pharma, the Chinese company it licensed the drug from.
[14] The trial gave 363 adults recently in hospital with schizophrenia one of five doses, an older drug called aripiprazole, or a dummy.[14] Every dose cut symptoms more than the dummy after six weeks.[14] The best group improved 16.7 points more than the dummy group on a standard symptom scale.[14] Why it matters — Slightly fewer people stopped taking obuprazine than stopped the dummy, 2.1% against 2.5%.
[14] Tortugas now wants FDA permission to test it in the US.[14] So far every patient in the trial was in China.[14] -
09
$500 billion of drug sales near their patent end
More than $500 billion of drug sales worldwide could face cheaper copies between 2026 and 2032, forecasts from the data firm Evaluate show.
[6] When a drug's patent ends, rivals can sell cheaper copies of it.[6] The worst single year is 2031, with $158 billion at risk.[6] In 2028, $99 billion is at risk as Merck's cancer drug Keytruda loses protection.[6] 202899 bn2031158 bnDrug sales at risk from cheaper copies in two years of the forecast, in billions of dollars. Why it matters — Drugmakers facing these gaps are buying other companies: Merck has spent $30.9 billion on six deals since the start of 2024, and Eli Lilly $27.2 billion on nine.
[6] Bristol Myers' two trial wins today answer the same pressure on its own best sellers.[2] -
10
Parkinson's cell maker files to sell shares
Aspen Neuroscience, a San Diego company, filed on 9 October to list its shares on the Nasdaq stock market.
[15] It turns a patient's own skin cells into stem cells, grows them into nerve cells that make dopamine and implants them in the brain.[15] Parkinson's disease destroys the cells that make dopamine, a chemical the brain needs for smooth movement.[15] Making one patient's treatment takes about four months, and the therapy is entering its final stage of testing.[15] Why it matters — Aspen wrote that its cash will not last another year and that there is substantial doubt it can keep operating.
[15] Bambusa Therapeutics, which is testing an antibody drug for eczema, filed for a listing the same day.[16] -
11
Bausch + Lomb's chief leaves suddenly
Bausch + Lomb, a large eye-care company, said Brent Saunders is leaving as chief executive with immediate effect.
[7] Its board chair, Thomas Appio, who has worked there since 2010, takes over for now.[7] Saunders had run and sold several drug companies before he joined in 2023.[7] On the same day the company raised its profit forecast for 2026.[7] Why it matters — An analyst at Leerink Partners called the exit unexpected but said the business is doing well.
[7] The company said the board and Saunders mutually agreed on his exit.[7] -
12
A third of Boston's lab space stands empty
Lab and factory space for biotech companies in Massachusetts was 31.1% empty by mid-2026, eleven times the rate at the end of 2021, figures from the trade group MassBio show.
[17] Builders around Boston, a centre of the biotech industry, put up labs without tenants after the pandemic, expecting demand to keep rising.[17] Such space grew from 21.5 million square feet in 2015 to more than 60 million by 2023.[17] One 15-storey building in Somerville has stood empty since 2024.[17] 20155.9%20212.7%mid-202631.1%Share of Massachusetts lab and factory space standing empty, from MassBio's figures. Why it matters — Investment fell while new buildings kept opening.
[17] Landlords are now offering the labs to robotics and electronics firms, and one property group calls the slump a reset.[17] -
13
Wales's endometriosis surgery at risk
Surgeons told Welsh politicians that the specialist endometriosis centres in Wales are at risk and that a national service is needed.
[18] Endometriosis is a painful disease that affects about one in ten women.[18] Cardiff and Vale health board put its centre on its risk register, because it may fail new rules from the body that accredits such centres.[18] One patient, Kelly O'Shea, woke from operations to find the surgery had not been done, and paid 20,000 pounds for private treatment.[18] Why it matters — If centres lose accreditation, women with the most complex cases would be sent to England, at a higher cost to the Welsh health service.
[18] Wales's deputy minister for women's health said the current set-up is not sustainable.[18] -
14
Northern Ireland not ready for its older people
Northern Ireland's Commissioner for Older People, Siobhan Casey, said its government is planning for a population from a previous era.
[19] The number of people over 65 is projected to rise by almost 45% in 25 years, while the whole population falls slightly.[19] By mid-2049 there would be 366 pensioners for every 1,000 people of working age, up from 269 in 2024.[19] Northern Ireland's Programme for Government, its main plan, mentions an ageing population only once.[19] 2024269mid-2049366Pensioners for every 1,000 people of working age in Northern Ireland, now and as projected. Why it matters — Fewer workers for each pensioner means less tax to pay for health care and pensions, and those are set by the UK government, not Northern Ireland's.
[19] Casey says housing, transport and workplaces will feel it too, not only hospitals.[19]
Why two drugs tested in separate trials cannot be ranked by their numbers
Each trial measures its drug against its own dummy group in its own patients, so two trials' numbers can differ for reasons that have nothing to do with the drugs.
The twist
Roche ran two eye trials designed to be identical, and one passed while the other failed. If one drug can score differently in twin trials, two drugs in two different trials cannot be ranked by their scores.
The picture
How it works
- A trial gives a drug to one group of patients and a dummy to another
- Its result is the gap between those two groups, in those patients
- Another trial has different patients, a different dummy group and different measures
- Even the same trial run twice lands in different places by chance
- So two trials' numbers side by side mix the drugs up with the trials
- Only a trial that gives both drugs to one set of patients can rank them
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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Tezspire's 70% remission
The figure beats what Dupixent showed, but each number is a gap against its own dummy group, in its own patients, so the step that would rank them, one shared trial, was never taken.
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First Tracks' celiac drug
An analyst says its results compare well with Teva's rival, but the two drugs were tested in different trials on different people, so the ranking rests on the trials as much as the drugs.
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Roche's twin eye trials
The same drug in two trials built alike gave a pass and a fail, which shows how far chance alone can move a result.
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Merck's eye drug against Lucentis
Here both drugs went to patients in one trial, so the gap of 9.1 against 11.8 letters is a fair ranking, and it went against the new drug.
Where you've seen this
School exams
a 70 on a hard paper and an 80 on an easy one cannot rank two pupils
Football scorers
twenty goals in a weak league can be worth less than ten in a strong one
Restaurant ratings
four stars on one website and four and a half on another come from different reviewers
The catch
A separate trial still tells you something: when the patients and measures are close and the gap is large, it is a fair hint. But a head-to-head trial is slow and costly, so often nobody runs one.
And the whole of it
A doctor choosing a drug, a patient reading a headline and an investor buying shares all meet these numbers side by side. None of them was inside those trials, so none of them can see how the patients behind each number differed.
What is really going on
Bristol Myers Squibb needs new drugs because Eliquis and Opdivo, over half its sales, could face US copies in 2028, and on Monday it announced two trial wins without showing a number.
Why it works on us — The words 'met its main goal' sound like a finished answer, so a short statement moves share prices before anyone outside the company has seen how big the effect was.
Who gains
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Bristol Myers Squibb
— Two final-stage wins give it drugs it can ask to sell before Eliquis and Opdivo face copies in 2028.
[2] -
Amgen and AstraZeneca
— A remission figure higher than Dupixent showed in its own trials gives their drug Tezspire a case for a new use, even though the comparison is across trials.
[7] -
People with Alexander disease
— Zanvastro is the first approved drug that targets the cause, where before doctors could only ease symptoms.
[9] -
Hansoh Pharma
— Obuprazine, the drug it licensed to Tortugas, passed its mid-stage trial in China, and Tortugas now wants to test it in the US.
[14] -
Robotics and electronics firms near Boston
— With almost a third of lab space empty, landlords are offering them buildings made for labs.
[17]
Who pays
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Contineum Therapeutics' shareholders
— Its shares fell about 30% on Bristol Myers' result, because its own drug blocks the same lung signal.
[1] -
Merck
— It paid $1.3 billion up front for remigromig, and analysts now see limited use for it after the full data.
[8] -
Women with complex endometriosis in Wales
— They face long waits, cut-short operations, and a risk of being sent to England if centres lose accreditation.
[18] -
Working-age people in Northern Ireland
— Each 1,000 of them is projected to support 366 pensioners by 2049, up from 269 in 2024.
[19] -
Landlords of new Boston labs
— Buildings put up after the pandemic sit empty, including a 15-storey tower in Somerville since 2024.
[17]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
How much admilparant slowed lung decline, and why 120 mg did worse than 60 mg.
Bristol Myers has not released the trial's numbers, and analysts at Leerink and RBC both said they need the detail to judge it.
[1] [2] -
02
Whether admilparant harms the liver.
The trial's safety watch for liver harm was changed last month, and Monday's statement said the drug was well tolerated without mentioning the liver.
[1] [2] -
03
How long RYZ101 held off tumour growth, and whether patients lived longer.
Bristol Myers gave no figures from the early look at the results, and the patients are still being followed for survival.
[2] [3] -
04
Whether remigromig's eye complications come from the drug or from diabetes itself.
Merck says the new blood vessels may be the disease getting worse naturally, and it is still running extra analyses.
[8] -
05
Whether Tezspire really works better than Dupixent for the food-pipe disease.
The two have only been tested in separate trials, which can mislead, and Tezspire's fuller results come out on Wednesday.
[7] -
06
Whether First Tracks' celiac drug holds up in more people.
The first group had 32 people, and results from a second group are due early next year.
[10] -
07
Whether Kenya's Ebola case stays a single case.
108 of the 122 listed contacts are in quarantine with no symptoms, and Kenya's health ministry still asks people to stay alert.
[12] -
08
Whether Aspen Neuroscience can raise enough money to finish its final trial.
It has not set a share price or size for its listing, and it says it needs substantial further money even if the listing works.
[15] [16]
The US approved Zanvastro, the first drug aimed at the cause of Alexander disease. In its trial, patients treated for just over a year walked faster than those who were not.
Also true today
- Kenya has found no new Ebola cases a week after its first patient died, and all 293 samples it tested were negative.
- Nearly 7 in 10 people on the highest dose of Tezspire were in remission from an immune disease of the food pipe after 24 weeks.
- A celiac drug protected the gut of people who ate gluten for two weeks in an early trial, for a disease that still has no approved medicine.
- People whose rare gut and pancreas tumours had grown again after radioactive treatment went longer without growth on RYZ101 than on standard care.
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