Climate & Energy · Wednesday, 21 October 2026
UN report says the world can no longer hold warming to 1.5C without first going past it, and today's policies lead to about 2.8C
The UN Environment Programme's yearly count says emissions held flat in 2025, the US rose most, and countries' promises cut far less than the 18% by 2030 the best path left needs.
2.8C
of warming by 2100 under the policies countries have in force today
with a 10% chance of passing 3.4C
18% vs 5-8%
cut in world emissions needed by 2030, against the cut countries' promises deliver
both measured from 2025 levels
58.4bn tonnes
of greenhouse gases released by the world in 2025, counted as carbon dioxide
about 0.16bn tonnes below 2024, a figure with high uncertainty
0.1C
more warming locked in for every five years cuts are put off
the report's own estimate
The lead story — what happened
-
The UN Environment Programme, the UN's environment agency, says the world can no longer keep warming to 1.5C without first going past it.
[1] [2] -
Its yearly Emissions Gap report, published on Wednesday, says the policies countries have in force now lead to about 2.8C of warming by 2100.
[1] [2] -
1.5C above the temperature before the industrial age is the safer of the two limits countries set in the Paris Agreement, the 2015 climate deal.
[2] [4] [5] -
The best path left lets warming peak at about 1.7C to 1.8C, then brings it back to 1.5C by 2100 by pulling carbon dioxide out of the air.
[1] [2] -
That path needs world emissions cut 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, compared with 2025.
[1] [2] Countries' current promises would cut them by only 5-8% and 11-15%.[1] [2] -
The world released 58.4 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2025, counted as carbon dioxide, about the same as in 2024.
[1] The report calls these figures provisional.[1] -
Of the six biggest emitters, only the US rose clearly in 2025, by 133 million tonnes, as electricity use grew and coal power came back.
[1] -
If every country kept every promise and reached its net-zero goal, warming would be about 2.1C.
[1] [2] Last year that figure was 1.9C.[2] The report blames mostly the US leaving the Paris deal, and partly higher counts of past emissions.[1] [2] -
For every five years that cuts are put off, about another 0.1C of warming is locked in, the report says.
[1] -
One thing ran ahead of plan: renewable power grew three times faster than forecasts made in 2015 expected, so emissions from energy rose 40% less than predicted.
[1] -
Under the Paris deal countries set their own targets, and a check every five years, the 'global stocktake', is meant to push them to do more.
[4] The next one ends in 2028.[4] [6] -
The IPCC's meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, was suspended on 16 October without a deal, after Saudi Arabia, Russia, India and others pushed for more time.
[3] [5]
- 1Paris limit1.5 C
- 2Peak on the best path left1.8 C
- 3Every promise and net-zero goal kept2.1 C
- 4Every 2035 promise kept, no more2.6 C
- 5Policies in force today2.8 C
Who is involved
-
The UN Environment Programme
the UN's environment agency; its yearly report counts the gap between what countries promise and what is needed
-
Antonio Guterres
the UN's secretary-general; he said going past 1.5C is not surrender, and the overshoot can be kept small and short
[2] -
The IPCC
the UN's panel of climate scientists; governments could not agree when its next big report comes out
[3] -
Saudi Arabia, Russia and India
among the countries that pushed to publish the IPCC report later; they say poorer countries need more time to take part
[3] [5] -
The United States
the one big emitter whose emissions rose clearly in 2025; it has left the Paris deal
[1]
How it unfolded
-
2015 The Paris Agreement sets the 1.5C limit
[5] -
2023 The first 'global stocktake', a check of every country's progress, ends at the COP28 talks in Dubai
[4] -
16 Oct The IPCC meeting in Addis Ababa is suspended without a date for its report
[3] -
21 Oct The UN report says 1.5C without going past it first is lost
[1] -
November The Cop31 climate talks meet in Turkey
[5] -
Late 2028 The second global stocktake ends at the COP33 talks
[6]
Where this points
The next test is the Cop31 talks in Turkey next month.
Signals on this beat
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.
ABB, a big maker of grid equipment, said orders from data centres more than doubled in a year.
US emissions rose by 133 million tonnes in 2025 as coal power came back.
Sales of battery cars in Europe rose 70% in September from a year earlier.
British firefighters told MPs that low rivers and weak mains left them short of water for wildfires.
The rest of the day
31 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
-
02
Britain approves the Jackdaw gas field
Britain's government approved the Jackdaw gas field on Wednesday, as the Guardian and the BBC had reported it would.
[7] [8] [41] Jackdaw lies about 150 miles east of Aberdeen, in the North Sea, and is run by Shell and Equinor, a Norwegian company.[7] [8] A court ruled last year that its earlier approval was unlawful, because it ignored the carbon from burning the gas.[7] [8] The Labour government promised no new licences, and says Jackdaw's licence is not new.[7] [8] Why it matters — When fully running, Jackdaw would make 6% of the North Sea's gas, and Uplift, a campaign group, says it would meet about 2% of Britain's demand for about 10 years.
[7] A decision on Rosebank, a bigger oil field, is expected later this year.[7] -
03
US promises its own methane rules
Lee Zeldin, who runs the US Environmental Protection Agency, says it will propose new rules on methane from oil and gas this month, Inside Climate News reported.
[9] Methane is the main part of natural gas.[9] Over 20 years it traps more than 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide.[9] The Biden administration's stricter rules, including a fee on excess methane, were blocked.[9] The agency has also proposed ending all duties on companies to report greenhouse gases.[9] Why it matters — In the Permian Basin of Texas, the largest US oilfield, most releases are never reported to state regulators, a study by RMI found.
[9] A researcher at Fieldnotes, an oil and gas watchdog, says many firms want rules that look strict and have big gaps.[9] -
04
Data centres move US election votes
In Sunbury, Ohio, a town of about 9,000, voters will decide in November whether to ban data centres that use 25 megawatts or more.
[13] Amazon wants to build one there, and the vote shares a ballot with a US Senate race between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown.[13] Groups set up to fight data centres more than doubled to 833 early this year, a research firm counted.[15] Pennsylvania already has 70 data centres, and 93 more are proposed.[14] Why it matters — Pennsylvania lawmakers link rising power bills to data centres, and one family in four there struggles to pay energy bills.
[14] Husted has softened his support for data centres, and Texas's governor, Greg Abbott, has backtracked on them.[15] -
05
Virginia's governor sets terms for a power merger
Abigail Spanberger, Virginia's governor, asked the state's utility regulator to approve the $67 billion merger of Dominion Energy and NextEra Energy only on strict terms.
[10] Dominion is Virginia's main power company, and the merger would make the world's largest regulated power company.[10] She wants home power rates frozen for six years.[10] The companies offered $10 a month off bills for four years, and her office asked for $29 a month.[10] $10 a monthCredit the firms offered$29 a monthCredit the governor asksMonthly bill credits for Virginia households, for four years, in the merger talks. Why it matters — The companies say the merger would help build power for data centres more cheaply.
[10] Her terms would also lower the profit Dominion is allowed to earn, by counting more of its money as borrowed.[10] -
06
US backs duties on solar cells from three countries
The US International Trade Commission, which rules on trade complaints, found last week that solar cell imports from India, Indonesia and Laos hurt US makers.
[39] The US Commerce Department is now expected to set final duties on 2 November.[39] The makers who brought the case say India faces dumping duties of 123% and subsidy duties of 126%.[39] They are led by First Solar and Qcells, two big panel makers in the US.[39] Why it matters — The same makers say imports from Ethiopia rose more than 3,000% in a year, and they suspect Chinese firms are moving production again to avoid duties.
[39] Their lawyer called the duty rates 'prohibitive', meaning high enough to stop the imports.[39] -
07
Europe's battery car sales up 70%
Sales of battery electric cars in Europe rose 70% in September from a year earlier, Reuters reported, according to Carbon Brief's daily summary.
[37] Nearly a third of new cars sold across 17 big European markets last month ran only on batteries.[37] Sales so far this year are 38% higher than in the same months of 2025.[37] High oil prices, subsidies and cheaper models drove the rise.[37] Why it matters — It came as France and Germany agreed to soften planned EU limits on car emissions.
[37] EU rules on car emissions are also why Subaru will sell only electric cars in Europe.[28] -
08
China gets over a third of its power from clean sources
Clean sources, meaning water, nuclear, wind and sun, made 36.8% of China's electricity in the first nine months of 2026, an official at its statistics bureau said.
[37] China's power output in September was 1.2% lower than a year earlier, Chinese industry news reported.[37] Power from coal and gas plants fell 1.4%.[37] Wind power rose 10.6% and solar power 19.5%.[37] Why it matters — The UN report found China's emissions flat in 2025.
[1] A fall in coal and gas power in September points the same way, though one month is not a trend.[37] -
09
States take Trump's energy emergency to court
On his first day back in office, President Donald Trump declared a 'national energy emergency' in the US.
[16] His energy department used it to order old coal plants to stay open.[16] Keeping the J.H. Campbell plant in Michigan running has cost Midwest power customers almost $300 million, Grist reported.[16] A court blocked that order in September, and about a dozen states challenge the emergency itself, with a hearing set for 20 October.[16] Why it matters — Petrol costs over $4 a gallon in the US and diesel a record of over $6, mainly because the war with Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
[16] The emergency powers have not brought those prices down.[16] -
10
Grid gear maker ABB sets an order record
ABB, a Swiss maker of switches, breakers and transformers for power grids, took a record $12 billion of orders in July to September.
[11] That was 40% more than a year earlier, and US orders rose 82%.[11] Its finance chief said orders from data centres more than doubled.[11] Profit fell 2% to $1.9 billion, partly because of costs tied to buying Rotork, another equipment maker.[11] Why it matters — ABB said power companies are also replacing old equipment to avoid blackouts and meet rising demand.
[11] Its unit selling equipment for buildings, data centres and grids booked a record $7.67 billion of orders, up 70%.[11] -
11
EU plans more ships and cables in the Arctic
The European Union set out a new plan for the Arctic on Tuesday, the AP reported.
[36] The Arctic is warming about four times faster than the world average, opening new shipping routes.[36] The EU wants more icebreakers, a centre to guard undersea cables, and a cable to Greenland.[36] It will still refuse to buy oil and gas drilled in the Arctic, but will stop pushing for a world ban on drilling there, the Financial Times reported.[36] [37] Why it matters — Europe has about 10 icebreakers against Russia's 40, and Trump has threatened to take Greenland, which belongs to Denmark.
[36] Dropping the drilling-ban push split officials in the European Commission, the EU's executive.[37] -
12
Storm Austen heads for southern Britain
Storm Austen, the first named storm of this autumn, will bring gales and heavy rain to southern Britain from Thursday night, the BBC reported.
[17] The Met Office, Britain's weather service, issued a yellow warning for wind from midnight Friday until midday.[17] Gusts of up to 70mph are expected in south Wales, south-west England and along the south coast.[17] Damage to buildings, travel delays and power cuts are likely.[17] Why it matters — Scotland and Northern Ireland will mostly miss it, but another deep low will bring more wind and rain on Saturday.
[17] -
13
British firefighters short of water
Britain's fire chiefs told MPs that crews struggled to get water to fight wildfires during this year's record-hot summer.
[18] Refilling one water carrier at a fire in Stourbridge took almost 40 minutes because of low pressure.[18] In a survey by their council, 81% of fire services said they had changed plans where water was short.[18] MPs want a law setting out what water companies must supply in a big fire.[18] Why it matters — Rivers and lakes were too low to draw from, and crews were asked to save mains water for paying customers.
[18] England's Environment Agency estimates public supply could be 5 billion litres a day short by 2055.[18] -
14
Amazon peoples take crime fight to the UN
Indigenous leaders from Peru, Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador are at a UN conference on organised crime in Vienna this week, the AP reported.
[38] They say illegal gold mining, logging and drug gangs are destroying their forests and poisoning rivers with mercury.[38] Six leaders of Peru's Kakataibo people have been killed since 2020.[38] Governments may agree to start talks on a new treaty against crimes that harm nature.[38] Why it matters — Global Witness, a campaign group, counted 105 land and environment defenders killed in Latin America in 2025, 85% of the world total.
[38] Cutting down forest is the biggest source of carbon from land use, the UN report says.[1] -
15
Georgia co-op to put batteries in homes
Central Georgia Electric Membership Corp., a power co-operative owned by its customers, will install up to 50 megawatts of home batteries from 2027.
[12] Base Power, a Texas company, will put batteries in members' homes at little or no cost and charge them when power is cheap.[12] The batteries give power back at the busiest hours, and up to 36 hours of backup in a blackout.[12] Why it matters — Data centres want to connect to the co-op's grid, including a 240-megawatt site near Hampton.
[12] In Georgia the batteries' main value is cutting what the co-op pays for power lines and spare supply, Base Power said.[12] -
16
Peru asks Chile to link their grids
Peru's energy minister, Guillermo Shinno, proposed restarting talks with Chile on joining the two countries' power grids, pv magazine reported.
[21] One plan is a 1,000-megawatt line from southern Peru to northern Chile, which a 2025 study priced at $550 million.[21] Chile threw away 2,680 gigawatt-hours of solar and wind power from January to July, because its own lines were full.[21] Peru's solar plants made 1,442 gigawatt-hours from January to June, 87% more than a year before.[21] Solar and wind Chile threw away, Jan-Jul2,680 GWhPeru's solar output, Jan-Jun1,442 GWhChile wasted more solar and wind power in seven months than Peru made from the sun in six. Why it matters — Chile's sun and wind could reach Peru by day, and Peru's dams and gas plants could help Chile when the sun is down.
[21] The two ministers may discuss it at a meeting on 29 November.[21] -
17
A 3.6bn pound tunnel plan for Windermere
A plan for a tunnel of up to 12 miles to carry sewage away from Windermere, England's largest lake, was unveiled this week, the BBC reported.
[19] It would cost 3.6 billion pounds.[19] United Utilities, the local water company, and campaigners who blame sewage for green algae on the lake both back it.[19] The UK government must now decide whether to go ahead.[19] Why it matters — Bills for United Utilities' customers could rise by up to 3.17 pounds a month, or by up to 35p across England if the cost is shared.
[19] The UK government promised in March 2025 to stop all sewage going into the lake.[19] -
18
Satellites show people draining groundwater
A NASA study used more than 20 years of data from the GRACE satellites, which weigh water by measuring tiny changes in Earth's gravity.
[27] It found 40 regions where water stored on land changed with human activity, not only with the climate.[27] Pumping for farms drained groundwater in California's Central Valley and northern India.[27] In northern India, shrinking Himalayan glaciers explained only 15% of the loss.[27] Why it matters — In four regions, human activity explained the changes better than any climate cause.
[27] In parts of Africa, new rain-fed millet fields raised the water table.[27] -
19
British homes crack as dry ground shifts
South-east England got only 61% of its normal September rain, so its soil is still about twice as dry as usual, the Environment Agency says.
[20] Clay shrinks in drought and swells again when wet, which can crack the walls of houses.[20] Insurers paid 307 million pounds for such damage to homes in 2025, 10% more than in 2024.[20] The average paid claim from April to June 2026 reached 20,000 pounds.[20] Why it matters — The damage keeps growing after the heat ends, because the ground moves again when the rain returns.
[20] -
20
Start-ups try to store carbon in the sea
Planetary Technologies, a Canadian company, adds a mineral slurry to the water flowing out of a power station in Halifax, Canada, Scientific American reported.
[40] The slurry should help the sea absorb more carbon dioxide from the air.[40] But scientists measuring the harbour say the signal is too small to separate from natural changes.[40] Machines on land that pull carbon from the air have removed only a few thousand tonnes so far.[40] Why it matters — The UN says the world will probably need to remove billions of tonnes a year by 2050.
[40] These companies sell carbon credits, and when the removal cannot be measured, each credit rests on a computer model.[40] -
21
Subaru drops petrol cars in Europe
Subaru, a Japanese carmaker, will stop selling petrol cars in Europe by the end of 2027 and sell only electric ones, Electrek reported.
[28] Subaru Germany said EU rules on emissions and driver-assistance systems forced the change.[28] The Outback goes at the end of this year, and three more models in 2027.[28] From 2028 it will sell three electric SUVs built with Toyota.[28] Why it matters — In the US, Subaru still sells hybrid models alongside its electric ones.
[28] -
22
BYD's smallest electric car drops below $10,000
BYD, a Chinese carmaker, put a new version of its Seagull on sale in China from 65,900 yuan, about $9,900.
[29] That is less than the old model, which cost 69,900 yuan.[29] It can charge in about five minutes on BYD's fastest chargers, and is bigger than before.[29] In Europe the car sells as the Dolphin Surf.[29] Why it matters — The Seagull is already among the world's best-selling electric cars, and the new one costs less than the car it replaces.
[29] -
23
US electric car sales fall, Rivian rises to second
Almost every carmaker sold fewer electric cars in the US from July to September than a year earlier, Cox Automotive's figures show.
[30] Sales a year ago had jumped before a $7,500 US tax credit ended.[30] Rivian, a US electric carmaker, rose from tenth to second, helped by its cheaper R2.[30] Tesla stayed first despite a fall of nearly 20%.[30] Why it matters — Mercedes, Lexus, Toyota and Subaru also sold more, each with new models, while makers that cancelled models sold fewer.
[30] -
24
GM closes a Detroit battery plant
General Motors is closing its Brownstown battery plant south of Detroit, a spokesperson told TechCrunch.
[31] The plant built battery packs for the Cadillac Celestiq, an electric car, and the hybrid Corvette E-Ray.[31] GM says the lease was ending and the work will move elsewhere.[31] US help for making and buying electric cars was repealed in a law signed last year.[31] Why it matters — GM still sells electric cars and is opening a $900 million centre to bring new battery types to market faster.
[31] -
25
More US chargers, for travellers and flats
Electrify America, a big US charging company, opened its largest station in Orlando, Florida, with 24 fast chargers of up to 350 kilowatts each.
[32] Florida had about 450,400 battery cars in 2025, second only to California.[32] Separately, LAZ Parking, which runs 5,700 car parks, launched charging for blocks of flats that shares one power supply across many cars.[33] Why it matters — People in flats often cannot charge at home, because adding power to the building costs too much.
[33] Sharing the power lets up to five times as many chargers run on the same supply.[33] -
26
School buses power 1,000 homes in Oakland
Oakland's school district in California runs 74 electric school buses that send power back to the grid, Electrek reported.
[34] After school, the buses plug in and give power back at the evening peak.[34] Together they can supply about 2 megawatts, enough for about 1,000 homes.[34] In two years they returned 1.7 gigawatt-hours to the grid.[34] Why it matters — Zum, the company that runs them, buys power when it is cheap and sells it when it is dear.
[34] The buses were available 99.5% of the time, so the fleet works like a small, reliable power plant for the busiest hours.[34] -
27
Eugene votes on a tax for clean energy
Voters in Eugene, Oregon, will decide in November on a 2% fee on profits made in the city by companies earning at least $1 billion nationally.
[35] It could raise $15 million to $37 million a year for clean energy, efficiency and job training.[35] Groceries, medicines and healthcare are exempt.[35] Portland, Oregon, has run a similar fee since 2018.[35] Why it matters — Portland's fund was expected to raise $30 million to $90 million a year and now raises nearly $200 million.
[35] The vote comes after the Trump administration took back billions in US climate grants.[35] -
28
Romania nears its 2030 solar goal early
Romania had more than 8.5 gigawatts of solar power by the middle of 2026, after adding about 2.2 gigawatts last year, pv magazine reported.
[22] At that pace it should pass its 2030 goal of 10 gigawatts before the end of 2027.[22] It also passed 1 gigawatt of large batteries this year.[22] Its permits for solar farms are among the fastest in the EU.[22] - 1Solar by mid-20268.5 GW
- 2Goal for 203010 GW
Romania's solar power, in gigawatts. pv magazine expects the 2030 goal to be passed before the end of 2027. Why it matters — Romania now has hours when power prices fall below zero.
[22] Bulgaria, next door, built 5.7 gigawatts of storage and has had no such hours since June.[22] -
29
Australia's rooftop solar has a record pace
Australians installed about 181,000 rooftop solar systems in the first half of 2026, 35% more than a year earlier, pv magazine reported.
[26] That is the most for any six months since 2021.[26] About 4 million homes and small businesses now have panels, more than 28 gigawatts in all.[26] A maintenance firm warns that many are never checked after they go up.[26] Why it matters — Australia has more rooftop solar per person than any other country.
[26] Panels that are not looked after may not last as long, or make as much power, as they were designed to.[26] -
30
Taiwan's solar makers form an alliance
Taiwan's Industrial Technology Research Institute, a state-backed research body, set up an alliance of seven solar companies, pv magazine reported.
[23] They will build a home supply chain for a newer cell design with its metal contacts on the back.[23] Local media reported cells about 25.5% efficient, a figure not yet checked by anyone outside.[23] Why it matters — The institute also has a way to use copper coated in silver, instead of pure silver, which could cut cell costs by 8%.
[23] -
31
GCL moves into battery materials
GCL Technology, a big Chinese maker of solar materials, plans to buy about 82% of a battery materials maker owned by its chairman's family, pv magazine reported.
[24] The price is about 2.5 billion yuan, mostly paid in new GCL shares.[24] The seller has promised profits of at least 620 million yuan over 2027 and 2028.[24] Why it matters — Because the seller is controlled by GCL's chairman, Zhu Gongshan, the deal needs approval from GCL's other shareholders.
[24] -
32
A spinning-wheel battery starts tests
Qnetic, a company based in Sacramento, California, began testing a flywheel that stores power as a fast-spinning wheel, pv magazine reported.
[25] Its unit holds 200 kilowatt-hours and could later hold 500, enough to supply 125 kilowatts for four hours.[25] It finished 100 charge cycles without losing capacity.[25] Sacramento's public power company plans a trial in early 2027.[25] Why it matters — Lithium batteries slowly lose capacity as they are used, and Qnetic says a flywheel does not.
[25] It still has to show it can be built cheaply at a large size.[25]
Why a climate deal with no fines depends on being counted
The Paris deal fines no country for missing its target, so the main push on a government is a public count of how far short it falls.
The twist
Under the Paris deal nobody pays a fine for missing a target. So a public count of who is falling short is most of the pressure there is, and the fight moves to when and how the counting is done.
The picture
How it works
- Countries set their own climate targets under the Paris deal
- Missing a target brings no fine and no court case
- So the push comes from public counts, like the UN's yearly report
- Each count sets a country's promise beside what it actually does
- A government that wants less push works on the count, not the target
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
-
The US methane rules
Most methane leaks in Texas's biggest oilfield never reach the official count, and the US government has proposed ending the duty to report greenhouse gases at all.
-
Storing carbon in the sea
A start-up earns a carbon credit only for carbon it can show it removed, and scientists in Halifax could not yet tell its slurry's effect apart from plankton and river water.
Where you've seen this
School exam tables
A school is not fined for weak results, but a published ranking pushes it to improve.
Food hygiene ratings
A low score on a restaurant's door loses it customers, even without a fine.
Pay-gap reports
Big UK firms must publish the gap between men's and women's pay, and the published number brings the pressure.
The catch
A count only pushes if somebody reads it and cares. A government whose voters do not mind being behind can ignore it.
And the whole of it
The count adds up every car, boiler, factory and farm, so most readers are somewhere inside it. No one country, company or person can see more than a small part of the total.
What is really going on
The UN's environment agency now says the world will go past 1.5C of warming, and that the policies in force lead to about 2.8C.
Why it works on us — The word 'overshoot' makes going past 1.5C sound like a short trip there and back, but the way back depends on pulling carbon from the air at a scale nobody has reached; machines on land have removed only a few thousand tonnes so far.
Who gains
-
Shell and Equinor
— Approval would let them develop Jackdaw, one of the biggest North Sea gas fields not yet producing.
[7] -
ABB and other makers of grid equipment
— Data centres and power companies buying switches and transformers gave ABB a record $12 billion of orders in three months.
[11] -
Oil and gas firms in the Permian Basin
— The US fee on excess methane has been delayed for 10 years, so gas they vent instead of selling carries no charge.
[9] -
First Solar, Qcells and other US panel makers
— Duties of more than 100% on cells from India would shut out cheaper rivals.
[39] -
Countries pushing to delay the IPCC report
— A report that misses the 2028 stocktake puts less public pressure on their plans, scientists and climate experts told New Scientist.
[4]
Who pays
-
Power customers in the US Midwest
— They have paid almost $300 million to keep Michigan's J.H. Campbell coal plant open under an emergency order.
[16] -
Homeowners on clay soil in England
— Ground damage after drought cost insurers 307 million pounds in 2025, and the average claim reached 20,000 pounds.
[20] -
Indigenous people in the Amazon
— Gangs mining and logging their land have killed six Kakataibo leaders in Peru since 2020.
[38] -
Small island countries
— Their envoys say a late IPCC report delays the science they need to protect lives, and the Marshall Islands' envoy called the delay a play for time.
[3] [6] -
United Utilities' customers
— If the Windermere tunnel goes ahead and they alone pay, their bills could rise by up to 3.17 pounds a month.
[19]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
-
01
Whether carbon can ever be pulled from the air on the scale the best path needs.
The path assumes large removals after 2050.
[1] Bob Watson, a former IPCC chair, says nobody knows whether those technologies are real, and land machines have removed only a few thousand tonnes.[2] [40] -
02
When the IPCC's next report will come out.
The Addis Ababa meeting ended with no timeline and no budget, and the IPCC has not said when it will meet again.
[3] [6] New Scientist reports a likely split: the science part in May 2028, the rest in 2029.[4] -
03
Whether world emissions actually fell in 2025.
The report puts them about 0.16 billion tonnes below 2024, but calls its figures provisional and says the direction cannot be told yet.
[1] -
04
What the US government's new methane rules will say.
They have been promised for this month but not published.
[9] Most Texas oilfield releases never reach official records, so even a strict rule would be hard to check.[9] -
05
Whether Jackdaw lowers British gas bills.
Uplift, a campaign group, says it would meet about 2% of demand for about 10 years, and no official estimate of its effect on bills was in our sources.
[7] The bigger Rosebank decision is still to come.[7] -
06
Whether Virginia's regulator accepts the governor's terms for the Dominion and NextEra merger.
The state's attorney general and the regulator's own staff also oppose the deal unless their terms are met, and the companies say they are still reviewing the filings.
[10] -
07
Whether US courts uphold Trump's energy emergency.
About a dozen states challenge it, and an appeals court has already blocked one coal plant order made under it.
[16] No ruling on the states' case was in our sources.[16] -
08
Whether the sea is actually taking up the carbon the start-ups say it is.
Scientists in Halifax could not separate the effect of the slurry from plankton and river water, so the credits rest on computer models.
[40]
Renewable power grew three times faster than forecasts made in 2015 expected. Because of it, emissions from energy rose 40% less than predicted.
Also true today
- In Oakland, California, 74 electric school buses have sent 1.7 gigawatt-hours back to the grid in two years. Together they can supply about 1,000 homes at the evening peak.
- Australians put solar panels on about 181,000 roofs in the first half of 2026, 35% more than a year before.
- Sales of battery electric cars in Europe rose 70% in September from a year earlier, to nearly a third of new cars.
- Romania had more than 8.5 gigawatts of solar power by mid-2026 and is on course to pass its 2030 goal of 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027.
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