Finance News · Saturday, 3 October 2026
US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Bets on an October rate rise faded, but ten-year borrowing costs rose again
Shares rose on Friday because slow hiring makes a US rate rise this month unlikely, yet the rate on ten-year US loans rose for a fifth week. Also today: France's borrowing gap over Germany hits a 2011 high, euro-area prices rise 3.8%, Tesla beats forecasts, Volvo Cars scraps its outlook and Vietnam grows almost 10%.
29,000
jobs US employers added in September
July and August together were also cut by 60,000 jobs.
4.2%
of people who want work in the US could not find it in September
A broader measure that also counts people stuck in part-time work fell to 7.6%, its lowest since January 2025.
3.0%
how much average US pay rose in a year
It is the slowest rise since May 2021.
17%
chance traders give a US rate rise in October
A week earlier it was close to 36%.
The lead story — what happened
-
US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, the US Labor Department said on Friday, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
[1] [2] -
Economists had expected far more: about 84,000 in a Dow Jones survey and 90,000 in a Reuters poll.
[1] [3] -
Earlier months were revised down by 60,000 in total. August is now 133,000 jobs, not 162,000, and July became a loss of 10,000.
[1] [4] -
Health care added about 17,000 jobs, more than half the total. Government lost 17,000, and information, finance and professional services also lost jobs.
[5] [4] -
Construction added 11,000 jobs, led by electricians and other trades building data centres, the huge buildings full of computers that AI runs on. Home-building trades lost nearly 8,000.
[6] [5] -
Unemployment rose partly because 485,000 more people joined the workforce, meaning they were working or looking for work. The share of adults doing so rose to 61.8%, the highest since May.
[1] [2] -
Average pay rose 3.0% over the year, the slowest since May 2021. Prices have risen faster than pay for months.
[1] [7] -
Unemployment among Black Americans rose a full point to 7%, double the rate for white Americans.
[4] -
Fewer jobs are needed than before, because baby boomers are retiring and the Trump administration has cut immigration. Economists say the hiring needed to keep unemployment steady could be as low as zero a month, down from perhaps 150,000 a year ago.
[8] -
Traders put the chance of a rate rise at the US central bank's meeting on 27-28 October at 17%, down from about 36% a week earlier. They still see a rise in December as likely.
[9] [1] -
Shares rose. The Nasdaq, an index full of tech companies, gained 1.2% after an all-time high during the day, and Nvidia, which makes the chips AI runs on, hit a record.
[10] [3] -
But the yearly interest on ten-year US government loans closed up at 5.281%, after falling to 5.157% just after the report. It rose about 0.10 points over the week, its fifth weekly rise, while the two-year rate fell 0.03 points and the thirty-year rose 0.13.
[11] [12] US home-loan rates follow the ten-year rate.[4]
Who is involved
-
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics
the US government office that counts jobs every month; it reported 29,000 new jobs and 4.2% unemployment
-
The Federal Reserve
the US central bank, led by Kevin Warsh; it raised its rate in September for the first time in three years and meets again on 27-28 October
-
Traders in rate futures
people who bet on where US interest rates go; they cut the odds of an October rate rise to 17%
[9] -
Lenders to the US government
the pension funds, banks and others who buy US government bonds; they pushed the ten-year rate up again on Friday
How it unfolded
-
September The US central bank raises its rate for the first time in three years
[2] [4] -
Wed 30 Sep A US price measure the US central bank watches comes in cooler than forecast
[9] -
This week The ten-year US rate reaches its highest since 2002
[12] -
Fri 2 Oct The jobs count shows 29,000 new jobs and 4.2% unemployment
[1] -
14 Oct The next US inflation count is due
[6] -
27-28 Oct The US central bank meets on rates
[1]
Where this points
Watch the US inflation count on 14 October: if prices keep rising faster than pay, a December rate rise stays likely even with hiring this slow.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
The rate on ten-year US government loans rose for a fifth week in a row.
US pay rose 3.0% in a year, which is less than prices rose.
Volvo Cars sold 10.7% fewer cars from July to September than a year before.
Data-centre building added thousands of US construction jobs in September.
France's government spends about 5.4% of its economy more than it collects.
The rest of the day
30 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
France pays its biggest premium since 2011
Lenders charged France about 1.4 to 1.6 percentage points a year more than Germany to borrow for ten years on Friday, depending on the source and the hour.
[22] [13] [23] That is the widest gap since the euro area's debt crisis of 2011 and 2012.[13] [23] France's ten-year rate touched 4.989%, its highest since 2002, while Germany's fell as investors bought its bonds as the safest in Europe.[13] [22] Germany's two-year rate fell nearly a quarter point over the week.[3] France's government has just proposed a 2027 budget with large cuts, and investors doubt parliament will pass it.[24] Why it matters — France spends about 5.4% of its economy more than it collects.
[13] Its debt is expected to reach 122% of a year's output next year, so each rise in its rate adds to a growing bill.[13] Europe's main share index was heading for its worst week since April.[25] -
03
Euro-area prices rise 3.8%
Prices in the countries that use the euro rose 3.8% in the year to September, Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, said in its first estimate.
[15] That was up from 3.2% in August and above the 3.6% economists expected.[15] Energy prices were 18.8% higher than a year before.[15] Spain's prices rose 5.0%, Italy's 4.1%, France's 3.4% and Germany's 3.3%.[15] Spain5%Italy4.1%Euro area3.8%France3.4%Germany3.3%How much prices rose in the year to September. The European Central Bank aims for 2%. Why it matters — The European Central Bank raised its rate in September, and traders now give a December rise a near 70% chance, but October only 11.7%.
[15] Christine Lagarde, its president, said higher bond rates would slow growth on their own and limit how far dearer energy spreads into other prices.[15] -
04
Tesla sells more cars than forecast
Tesla delivered 486,532 cars from July to September, well above the roughly 457,000 to 462,000 that analysts expected.
[26] [19] That was about 2% fewer than a year earlier, which was Tesla's record quarter, just before a US tax credit of up to $7,500 for electric cars ended.[19] [26] Sales in Europe recovered after last year's slump.[26] Its shares rose more than 5% in early trading.[26] Why it matters — Tesla is now on course to end two straight years of falling sales, and analysts expect 1.82 million deliveries this year, up from 1.65 million in June.
[26] Rivian, a smaller US maker of electric cars, also beat forecasts, while older carmakers sold less.[26] [18] -
05
Volvo Cars scraps its forecast
Volvo Cars, the Swedish carmaker, sold 141,609 cars from July to September, 10.7% fewer than a year before.
[17] Its sales in China fell 40.6% as Chinese carmakers cut prices, and its sales in North and South America fell 14%.[17] It scrapped its forecast for the whole year.[27] [28] Its shares fell as much as 6.8% on Friday.[17] China−40.6%The Americas−14%Europe and others2%How Volvo Cars' sales changed from a year earlier, July to September. Why it matters — Europe was the one bright spot: Volvo's sales there rose 2%, and sales of its fully electric cars in Europe jumped 51%.
[17] In China, local carmakers are competing harder and cutting prices in a weak economy.[17] -
06
Ford keeps third place by 1,195 cars
Ford sold 507,395 cars and light trucks in the US from July to September, 6.6% fewer than a year before.
[18] The South Korean group that owns Hyundai, Kia and Genesis sold 506,200, up 5.4%.[18] Cox Automotive, a forecaster, had expected Hyundai's group to pass Ford for the first time.[18] Ford is still about 89,700 vehicles ahead for the year so far.[18] 507,395Ford, July-Sept506,200Hyundai group, July-SeptThe two were almost level. Ford's sales fell 6.6% while the Hyundai group's rose 5.4%. Why it matters — Ford's big F-Series pickups recovered after supplier fires last year, and their sales fell only 1.9%.
[18] Its electric car sales fell about 80% in the quarter, against a record a year earlier, when buyers rushed before a US tax credit ended.[18] -
07
The dollar slips, but stays near a high
The US dollar fell against the euro and the yen on Friday after the jobs report, as traders cut their bets on a US rate rise.
[3] Late in the day the euro was up 0.16% at $1.1259, and the dollar was down 0.18% at 157.79 yen.[3] On Thursday the euro had dropped to $1.1215, its lowest since May 2025, as money left French bonds.[29] [24] The Swiss franc, another place nervous money goes, also rose.[24] Why it matters — Earlier in the week the dollar reached a 17-month high as money fled the bond troubles in Europe, even while the odds of a US rate rise fell, an Investing.com analysis said.
[24] Futures still price a 39% chance that US rates rise a full point within a year.[24] -
08
Oil eases after reserves are promised
Brent crude closed 6 cents lower at $102.25 a barrel on Friday, and WTI, the main US oil price, fell $1.76 to $91.11.
[30] The Group of Seven rich democracies agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency stores over four months, with diesel first.[30] Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said prices had fallen about $5 since the release was announced.[31] Saudi Arabia is planning an attack on Houthi fighters in Yemen, officials told Reuters.[30] Why it matters — The US supplied about half of the diesel the EU bought abroad in August, so Europe is exposed to the US export ban Trump has threatened.
[30] Brent turning higher again during the day was one reason lenders kept worrying about inflation.[23] -
09
Vietnam grows almost 10%
Vietnam's economy grew 9.95% from July to September compared with a year earlier, its statistics office said on Saturday.
[32] That is the fastest pace in four years, up from 8.81% from April to June.[32] Industry and construction led the growth.[33] Imports have grown faster than exports, leaving a trade deficit of $19.4 billion over the first nine months of the year.[33] Why it matters — Vietnam's factories also grew in September, a survey of factory buyers showed.
[16] Foreign firms keep adding plants there: the Danish jeweller Pandora has just opened one in Ho Chi Minh City.[34] -
10
Pandora opens a $150m plant in Vietnam
Pandora, the Danish jewellery company, has opened a $150 million factory in Ho Chi Minh City, its first outside Thailand.
[34] It can make up to 60 million pieces a year and will employ about 7,000 people when fully running.[34] It raises Pandora's production capacity by about half.[34] Its boss, Berta de Pablos-Barbier, said sales in Asia grew 10% in the second quarter.[34] Why it matters — Pandora is moving part of its production beyond Thailand, its longtime base.
[34] Its sales in Japan have about doubled in three years, while China has seen three years of declines.[34] -
11
Asian factories grow on AI orders
Factories in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan grew in September on strong orders for chips and AI equipment, surveys of factory buyers showed on Thursday.
[16] In these surveys a reading above 50 means business is growing.[16] South Korea's reading rose to 53.9, its highest since May, and its export orders grew at the fastest pace in 15 and a half years.[16] Taiwan's rose to 56.7.[16] Taiwan56.7Japan54.1South Korea53.9Factory survey readings for September. Anything above 50 means factories are growing. Why it matters — Japan's reading slipped to 54.1, and its factories kept raising prices at one of the sharpest rates since late 2022.
[16] Factories in the Philippines and Malaysia shrank.[16] -
12
G20 ministers split over a US trade push
A 'handful' of trade ministers from the G20, a club of 20 big economies, rejected a US call to curb 'excess industrial capacity', the US trade office said on Friday.
[35] The US means factories backed by governments, such as China's, that make more than markets want and export the rest.[35] Only Mexico and Argentina signed a separate US statement on removing goods made with forced labour from supply chains.[35] The US is also investigating 16 trading partners for excess capacity.[35] Why it matters — That investigation is widely expected to bring new US tariffs in the coming months.
[35] China rejects the charge and says the West uses it as an excuse to protect its own industries.[35] -
13
No new US case against Powell
The US Justice Department will not reopen its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, former head of the US central bank, over the overspending on its headquarters, Attorney General Todd Blanche said on Friday.
[36] The US central bank's own watchdog found no grounds for a criminal referral, though it found major failures of oversight.[36] Blanche said an independent audit could still lead to action.[36] Why it matters — Powell stepped down as chair in May but stays on the bank's board until January 2028.
[36] President Trump says he should be 'forced to resign' from the board at a minimum.[36] -
14
US closes an ETF tax route for the rich
The US Treasury and the IRS, the US tax agency, warned this week that some wealthy investors are misusing a tax rule to avoid tax on gains from shares.
[37] The rule, called Section 351, lets an investor swap shares into a new fund for the fund's own shares without paying tax at the time.[37] The IRS said deals where the fund soon hands back a different set of shares 'don't work under existing law'.[37] Why it matters — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US government is serious about cracking down on deals designed to dodge tax.
[37] Ordinary swaps still work if no single holding is more than 25% of the portfolio and the top five are no more than 50%.[37] -
15
Lyft pays $272.5m to settle a wage case
Lyft, the ride-hailing company, agreed to pay California $272.5 million to settle claims that it took drivers' wages by treating them as independent contractors instead of employees.
[38] California's attorney general, Rob Bonta, called it the largest wage-theft settlement in the state's history.[38] More than $237 million will go to thousands of drivers once a court approves it.[38] Lyft says its drivers were always classed correctly.[38] Why it matters — Independent contractors in the US get no sick pay, no overtime and no minimum wage under federal and state rules, which is why the label matters.
[38] The case covers 2016 to 2020.[38] -
16
Paramount and Warner will be called Skydance
David Ellison said the company formed when Paramount completes its purchase of Warner Bros Discovery next week will be called Skydance, and its shares will trade as SKYD.
[39] The deal is worth about $111 billion, and a US judge cleared its last legal obstacle on 30 September.[40] Mattel's chief executive, Ynon Kreiz, joins as co-chief executive on 5 October.[40] Why it matters — The Paramount and Warner Bros film studios will keep their own names, and plan 35 films between them next year.
[39] The actor Mark Ruffalo said the merger will cost jobs and weaken free speech, and vowed to keep fighting it.[40] -
17
Cerebras shares hit a low
Shares in Cerebras, which makes large AI chips and rents out their computing power, fell nearly 20% this week to their lowest since it listed in May.
[41] SemiAnalysis, a research firm, said OpenAI would use Nvidia chips instead of Cerebras for a fast mode of its newest model.[41] Insiders were also allowed to start selling shares this week.[41] The stock closed at $166.43 on Friday.[41] Why it matters — Cerebras was worth $95 billion at the end of its first day of trading, and its shares are now down more than half from that first jump.
[41] Sam Altman, OpenAI's boss, called Cerebras 'a close partner', and the shares rose almost 3% after hours.[41] -
18
Anthropic warns about the US government
Anthropic, the AI company that makes Claude, warned in its share-sale papers that how the US government sees it could hurt its ties with business customers, Reuters reported.
[42] It said the US president ordered federal agencies in February to stop using its models, and the Defense Department called it a supply-chain risk.[42] In June the Commerce Department put worldwide export limits on two of its models, which Anthropic switched off for all customers until the limits were lifted.[42] Why it matters — Government contracts bring in less than 1% of Anthropic's revenue, but the papers say losing official favour can harm its name with everyone else.
[42] The share sale could value Anthropic at $2 trillion, Reuters reported.[42] -
19
Lenders grow choosier on AI buildings
Investors are demanding more to lend for AI data centres, The Information reported, with wider gaps on tech giants' bonds and bigger price cuts on riskier data-centre bonds.
[14] At least 20 high-interest bond deals paid for data-centre projects in the past year.[14] Many lead back to the biggest AI firms, such as buildings leased to CoreWeave, whose customers include Microsoft, Meta and OpenAI.[14] Why it matters — Some of these bonds are already among the top holdings of high-interest bond funds run by State Street and Charles Schwab, though each is under 1% of those funds.
[14] Nvidia has also signed $45 billion of future data-centre leases, $20 billion of which it plans to pass to other firms.[14] -
20
Argentina offers citizenship for $350,000
Argentina will offer citizenship to wealthy foreigners who give $350,000 to its treasury or put $800,000 into a new government bond for seven years, its economy minister, Luis Caputo, said on Friday in Paris.
[20] A family of four would pay about $500,000.[20] Applications should open before the end of the year.[20] Advisers to Argentina's government estimate it could raise up to $2.5 billion.[20] Why it matters — Argentina must pay nearly $25 billion of debt in foreign currency in 2027.
[20] President Javier Milei has not yet returned to borrowing on international bond markets, so his government is looking for dollars elsewhere.[20] -
21
Brazil votes on Sunday
Brazil chooses a president on Sunday, and polls show President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, neck and neck.
[43] A runoff on 25 October is likely.[43] Investors' main worry is government spending, and only a small part of the budget can be cut easily.[43] Capital Economics, a research firm, says a Flavio win could lift Brazilian shares by 10% to 20%.[43] Why it matters — The same firm says a Lula win could leave Brazilian shares lagging.
[43] It is one of about 40 national elections this year that can move markets, with Israel voting on 27 October and the US on 3 November.[43] -
22
Japan changes how it explains its plans
Japan's finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, said on Saturday that Japan's government has begun changing how it explains its policies, to reassure markets that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is not trying to push prices up.
[44] She said Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, had questioned whether Japan was explaining itself clearly enough to investors.[44] Prices in Tokyo rose 2.7% in the year to September, up from 1.8%.[24] Why it matters — The Bank of Japan has raised its rate twice this year, in June and September, and the Tokyo figure makes an October rise more likely, an Investing.com analysis said.
[24] Japan's government owes well over twice its yearly economic output, more than France or the US.[13] -
23
Britain will change its pension rule
Britain's government, led by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, will pass a law in this parliament to change the 'triple lock' on the state pension.
[21] The lock raises the pension each year by whichever is highest of 2.5%, inflation or pay growth.[21] In future the pay part will be adjusted, so the pension does not jump in years when pay spikes.[21] The lock stays as it is until 2030.[21] Why it matters — Britain's government says the change would cut pension spending by £15 billion a year by the late 2030s and £50 billion a year by 2050, and use savings for a free care service in England.
[21] The Resolution Foundation, a think tank, says the saving could be anything from nothing to about £24 billion a year.[21] -
24
Britain weighs a higher slot-machine tax
John Healey, Britain's chancellor, who runs its public finances, is considering raising the tax on betting-shop slot machines in his first budget, according to reports.
[45] The Social Market Foundation, a think tank, wants the tax doubled from 20% to 40%.[45] It says that would raise £275 million to £460 million a year on top of about £610 million now.[45] A report for the betting industry by EY, an accounting firm, says up to 1,470 of 5,617 betting shops could close.[45] Why it matters — Fred Done, Betfred's billionaire owner, says the tax would fail, and Paddy Power's co-founder, Stewart Kenny, calls that scaremongering.
[45] The budget comes after Britain's 30-year borrowing rate reached 6% this week, the first time a G7 country has paid that much since 2012.[46] -
25
Train-leasing firms paid out almost £400m
The bosses of three companies that rent trains to Britain's railways were paid £3.5 million between them last year, while the firms paid almost £400 million to their shareholders.
[47] Eversholt Rail paid £200 million, Angel Trains £111 million and Porterbrook £80 million.[47] Britain's government is considering owning trains directly through Great British Railways, a new public body.[47] Why it matters — Their bosses earn far more than the heads of Network Rail and HS2, the state-owned rail bodies.
[47] The RMT rail union called for a special tax on the three firms.[47] -
26
Africa's biggest phone seller plans a share sale
Transsion Holdings, the biggest seller of phones in Africa, plans to raise about $500 million by selling shares in Hong Kong, to develop phones with AI features.
[48] Its brands Tecno, Infinix and itel held 53% of Africa's phone market by revenue in 2025, according to Frost & Sullivan, a research firm.[48] The company is based in Shenzhen, China, and its shares in Shanghai are down nearly 20% this year.[48] Why it matters — Its revenue rose 30% in the first months of the year and its profit rose 13% to $194 million.
[48] Chinese regulators have approved the issue of up to 132 million shares.[48] -
27
Zambia tells Gulf investors to buy local
Zambia's president, Hakainde Hichilema, told investors from the Gulf to follow Zambia's rules on buying goods and services locally, on his first trip abroad since being re-elected last month.
[49] Zambia is Africa's second-biggest copper producer.[49] He urged the Abu Dhabi-based owner of Mopani, one of Zambia's oldest copper mines, to raise output.[49] Zambia signed six agreements worth $2.14 billion with investors from the United Arab Emirates, none of them binding.[49] Why it matters — Zambia wants to more than triple its copper output to 3 million tonnes by 2030.
[49] Critics say buy-local rules raise costs when local suppliers cannot deliver, and let middlemen resell imports.[49] -
28
Africa's development bank looks for $4 trillion at home
The African Development Bank, which lends to African governments for roads, power and other projects, says the continent is short of about $400 billion a year for its development.
[50] Its president, Sidi Ould Tah, said it is talking to lenders about putting to work about $4 trillion held inside Africa, by pension funds and banks among others.[50] He spoke at an S&P conference in London.[50] Why it matters — Tah said unclear data makes some African countries look riskier than they are, which raises what they pay to borrow.
[50] The bank will help governments prepare for credit ratings.[50] -
29
Nigeria's president says the emergency is over
Nigeria's president, Bola Tinubu, said on Thursday that the 'emergency treatment' of the economy is over, in his Independence Day speech.
[51] His three-year overhaul ended a fuel subsidy, and petrol now costs more than five times what it did in 2023.[51] Nigeria's debt has risen 20% to $54.5 billion under him.[51] He faces Atiku Abubakar, who promises to bring the fuel subsidy back, and Peter Obi in elections in January.[51] Why it matters — Nigeria's economy has grown steadily in recent quarters.
[51] Tinubu also extended the deadline for carrying out last year's budget this week, a sign of loose spending that could make the debt harder to pay.[51] -
30
Saudi share-sale rules worry bankers
Saudi Arabia's stock market regulator, now led by Mazen Al-Sudairi, is rewriting its rules for companies that want to list, in one of its biggest overhauls since foreign investors were let in in 2015.
[52] Bankers and lawyers in Riyadh worry the changes could slow new share sales instead of reviving them.[52] One proposal would make banks carry more of the risk when a share sale goes badly.[52] Why it matters — Saudi shares are down 3% since the Iran war began on 28 February, while a broad index of emerging-market shares rose 6%.
[52] Saudi Arabia's government needs a busy market so it can sell shares it owns and put the money into new projects.[52] -
31
A $4.1bn plan between Abu Dhabi and Dubai
Aldar, Abu Dhabi's biggest property developer, and Arada, from neighbouring Sharjah, formed a 15 billion dirham ($4.1 billion) partnership.
[53] Its centrepiece is a community of villas and townhouses at Seih Sdeirah, on the border between Abu Dhabi and Dubai.[53] The 80km stretch between the two cities is now mostly farms, factories and warehouses.[53] Naguib Sawiris, an Egyptian billionaire, is planning a $10 billion project along the same border.[53] Why it matters — The projects along the strip may one day join the two cities into one urban area.
[53] Arada is also buying three plots on Yas Island, its first move into Abu Dhabi.[53]
Why a weak jobs report did not make long loans cheaper
A central bank steers short loans, but lenders set the ten-year rate, and they still fear dear oil and big government debts.
The twist
The US central bank decides what money costs for the next few months. Lenders decide what it costs for the next ten years, and on Friday they were still worried about oil and government debts, which a jobs report cannot change.
The picture
How it works
- The US central bank sets the rate on loans for a few months at a time
- A two-year loan mostly follows where traders think that rate goes next
- A ten-year loan also carries lenders' fears about ten years of prices and government debts
- Slow hiring made a rate rise this month less likely, so the two-year rate fell over the week
- Dear oil and heavy government borrowing kept lenders worried, so the ten-year rate rose
- Home loans follow the ten-year rate, so they stayed dear
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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France's premium over Germany
Germany's two-year rate fell nearly a quarter point this week as traders expected fewer European rate rises, while France's ten-year rate hit its highest since 2002 on fears about its debts.
-
Euro-area prices at 3.8%
Christine Lagarde said higher bond rates would slow the economy on their own, so long-term lenders are doing part of the European Central Bank's work before it moves.
-
Lenders choosier on AI buildings
Data-centre bonds run for years, so lenders asked for more to cover the risk of the projects themselves, whatever the US central bank does next month.
Where you've seen this
Renting a flat
A one-year lease follows this year's rents; a ten-year lease also prices what the landlord fears about the area.
Energy deals
A one-year fixed energy deal follows what gas costs today; a five-year deal adds a charge for not knowing what wars or winters bring.
Supply contracts
A farmer selling next month's grain takes today's price; selling five years ahead, both sides argue about weather and costs.
The catch
When lenders trust that prices and government debts will stay calm, the ten-year rate follows a country's central bank more closely. The gap opens most when prices are rising fast and governments are borrowing heavily, as they are now.
And the whole of it
A family in the US signing a home loan this month pays a rate set by lenders who worry about oil, war and how much the US and French governments borrow. Nobody in this story sets that rate alone: not the family, not the workers in the jobs count, and not the US central bank.
What is really going on
US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September and pay rose more slowly than prices, yet share traders cheered, because slow hiring makes a US rate rise this month unlikely.
Why it works on us — One headline number, 29,000, reads like a verdict on the whole economy, though the same report's count of households found 406,000 more people in work.
Who gains
-
Shareholders in chip makers
— Lower odds of a rate rise lifted tech shares, and Nvidia reached a record during the day.
[10] -
The German government
— Investors leaving French bonds bought German ones, cutting Germany's borrowing rates for four sessions in a row.
[22] -
Hyundai, Kia and Genesis
— Their group's US sales rose 5.4% while Ford's fell 6.6%, closing to within 1,195 cars of Ford.
[18] -
Lyft drivers in California
— More than $237 million of the settlement goes to them once a court approves it.
[38] -
The US Treasury
— Its new ruling stops wealthy investors deferring tax on share gains through some ETF swaps.
[37]
Who pays
-
US workers
— Pay rose 3.0% in a year, less than prices, and July and August jobs were cut by 60,000.
[1] [7] -
Black Americans looking for work
— Their unemployment rose a full point to 7%, double the rate for white Americans.
[4] -
French taxpayers
— Every rise in France's borrowing rate adds to interest on a debt heading for 122% of a year's output.
[13] -
Households in the euro area
— Energy prices were 18.8% higher than a year before.
[15] -
Volvo Cars' shareholders
— Sales in China fell 40.6% and the company scrapped its yearly forecast.
[17] [27] -
Late buyers of Cerebras shares
— The stock is down more than half from its first-day jump, after OpenAI chose Nvidia chips for a new feature.
[41]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
-
01
How many jobs the US really added in September.
The count of employers found 29,000 and the count of households found 406,000.
[1] Forecasts ranged from under 70,000 to 90,000, and one strategist blamed a late Labor Day holiday and late school starts.[4] [3] [11] -
02
Whether the US central bank raises its rate in December.
The odds moved all day: CME's tool showed a 17% chance of an October rise by the close, Reuters cited about 21%, and odds were higher in the morning.
[9] [3] [6] For December, CME showed above 75% and the betting site Kalshi 65%.[9] -
03
How wide France's gap with Germany really got.
Reuters put it past 1.40 points, Macquarie's figures 1.52 and LSEG data 1.59, each at a different hour.
[22] [13] [23] -
04
Whether France's parliament passes the 2027 budget.
One report puts the cuts at 54 billion euros and another at 43 billion, and investors doubt either will pass.
[24] [28] -
05
Whether the emergency oil release has lowered prices.
Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency said prices fell about $5 after the plan was announced, but Brent closed Friday only 6 cents lower.
[31] [30] -
06
How much Britain saves by changing the pension triple lock.
Britain's government says £15 billion a year by the late 2030s, while the Resolution Foundation says anything from nothing to about £24 billion, depending on which past decade is used.
[21] -
07
Whether a higher slot-machine tax would close betting shops.
An industry report by EY says up to 1,470 shops could close, while the Social Market Foundation expects the tax to raise up to £460 million more a year.
[45] -
08
Who stands behind the riskier AI data-centre bonds.
Some projects are leased to tenants the filings do not name, reported as Nvidia in two Nevada deals.
[14] -
09
Whether Tesla's sales are really growing again.
Deliveries beat forecasts but were about 2% lower than a year earlier, and Tesla needs 311,448 more deliveries in the last quarter to match last year.
[19] [26]
Vietnam's economy grew 9.95% from July to September, its fastest pace in four years.
Also true today
- Lyft agreed to pay California $272.5 million over drivers' wages, and more than $237 million of it will go to thousands of drivers once a court approves the deal.
- In September 485,000 more Americans joined the US workforce, and a broad measure of unemployment that counts people stuck in part-time work fell to 7.6%, its lowest since January 2025.
- Pandora's new jewellery factory in Ho Chi Minh City will employ about 7,000 people when it is fully running.
- South Korea's factories saw export orders grow at the fastest pace in 15 and a half years in September.
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