The IMF raises its 2026 world growth forecast to 3.1% as AI spending offsets the war, and warns that emergency oil stocks are running down

The rest of the day

31 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

1. 02

   Chip shares fall from New York to Seoul

   Shares in chipmakers fell on Monday in New York and on Tuesday across Asia. [21] South Korea's main share index, the Kospi, fell more than 6% to its lowest since 31 July, and computer-driven trading was paused for five minutes. [9] SK Hynix, which makes memory chips for AI, fell more than 8%, Samsung Electronics 6.7% and Japan's SoftBank 8.8%. [21] Investors were worried by a new memory design from CXMT, a Chinese chipmaker, which it aims to sell by the end of 2026. [22] They also worried about how all the AI building will be paid for. [21]

   SoftBank8.8%

   SK Hynix8%

   Samsung6.7%

   Kospi index6%

   Why it matters — Samsung and SK Hynix make up more than half of the Kospi, so a bad day for memory chips becomes a bad day for South Korea's whole market. [23] The Kospi led the world in the first half of 2026 and has fallen about 24% since. [23]

2. 03

   Chip bosses say money may run short for AI

   Hock Tan, the head of Broadcom, a big US chip designer, said on Monday that money, more than chips or electricity, may become the biggest limit on building AI. [10] He spoke at a conference in Singapore run by DBS, a bank. [10] Lip-Bu Tan, Intel's chief executive, said the rising cost of borrowing is the main challenge, and investors will want to see returns. [10] He said today's shortage of memory chips may be over within a year, and the shortage of silicon wafers, the discs chips are cut from, by 2028 or 2029. [10]

   Why it matters — A data centre can take years to pay for itself, so higher borrowing costs make each one harder to fund. [10] Hock Tan still said demand for computing will outrun supply until 2029 or later. [10]

3. 04

   Rich families bet on AI while expecting a bubble

   Eighty-five percent of North American family offices, firms that manage one rich family's money, rank AI as their top investment theme. [11] Yet 75% expect an AI bubble to burst within five years, a survey by RBC Wealth Management and Campden Wealth found. [11] The survey asked 155 family offices. [11] The risk they feared most was too much government borrowing, chosen by 76%. [11]

   Why it matters — An RBC adviser said even patient investors can be caught up in the fear of missing out. [11] The IMF's own bad case for AI, a pullback in spending and a fall in share prices, is the kind of burst these families say they expect. [7]

4. 05

   IMF head warns AI will hit young workers first

   Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's head, said on Monday in Bangkok that AI is hitting jobs like a slow-moving tsunami. [4] The IMF estimates 40% of jobs worldwide will in time be changed, downgraded or cut. [3] Singapore's president, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, said demand for US graduates has fallen for the first time in a century. [4] He wants governments to keep Covid-era help, such as rewards for firms that hire graduates. [4]

   Why it matters — Routine starter jobs are going first, Georgieva said, and those are where young people used to learn a trade. [4] Lower-paid jobs are growing in building work and data centres. [3]

5. 06

   Office industries make more with fewer staff

   In the US, firms in finance, insurance, information and professional services employ about 2% fewer people than at the end of 2022. [20] Their real output, what they produce after removing price rises, has grown 16% in the same time. [20] Gad Levanon, chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute, a research group, found the gap. [20] He says work once done by contractors and call centres now goes to software firms that add almost no staff. [20]

   Why it matters — That breaks the usual link between a growing economy and better pay for ordinary workers, Levanon warns. [20] How much of the gap is caused by AI is still unclear. [20]

6. 07

   Kroger to cut over a third of its office staff

   Kroger, one of the biggest US grocery chains, will cut about 3,000 corporate jobs over the next three years. [24] That is 37% of its 8,200 office staff. [19] Its new chief executive, Greg Foran, who used to run Walmart's US stores, told staff on Monday. [24] He said the company has too many layers of management and is leaning more on technology, including AI. [19]

   37 of 100

   of every 100 Kroger office jobs, to be cut

   Why it matters — Kroger says the money saved will go into lower prices, better shops and its store workers. [19] It has not yet said which departments lose the jobs. [19]

7. 08

   Airtable's new owner lays off much of its staff

   Bending Spoons, an Italian tech group, is laying off a large part of Airtable's staff. [25] Airtable makes a spreadsheet-and-database app, and Bending Spoons agreed to buy it for $1.28bn in August. [25] Its product chief said the cuts come from a belief that small teams ship more and better work. [25] The company has not said how many people lose their jobs. [25]

   Why it matters — Staff leave by the end of the week with what the company calls substantial payouts. [25] Its plan puts AI features at the centre of the app, run by a smaller team. [25]

8. 09

   Nobel prize for the models central banks use

   Robert Hall of Stanford University and Michael Woodford of Columbia University won the 2026 Nobel prize in economics on Monday. [26] They built the models that central banks and finance ministries now use to steady an economy and avoid long slumps or runaway prices. [26] Their models start from how households and firms plan ahead. [27] Woodford's work also led to forward guidance, when a central bank says where it expects interest rates to go. [26]

   Why it matters — The prize, worth $1.2m in all, lands as central banks in the US, the euro area and Japan have raised rates this year to fight prices. [26][6]

9. 10

   India's prices rise 5.54%, above forecasts

   India's consumer prices rose 5.54% in the year to September, up from 4.82% in August, India's statistics ministry said on Monday. [14] Economists polled by Reuters had expected 5.40%. [14] Food prices rose 7.74%, faster in villages than in cities, and the cost of transporting goods rose 14.73%. [14] India buys nearly 85% of its fuel from abroad. [14]

   Why it matters — The Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, raised rates this month for the first time since 2023 and says cuts are off the table for now. [14] India's lowest monsoon rainfall in more than a decade puts food prices at further risk. [14]

10. 11

    The dollar climbs to an 18-month high

    The US dollar held near its highest level since April last year on Tuesday, measured against six other big currencies. [18] It has risen 4% in a month, a big move for the world's main currency. [28] Traders expect high energy prices to push the US central bank to raise rates while US growth beats other rich countries. [17] Worries about France's debts have also pulled the euro down. [18]

    Why it matters — China's yuan went the other way, trading near its strongest level in four years. [18] Australia's central bank said in minutes out on Tuesday that it raised rates for a fourth time this year and could go again. [18]

11. 12

    Oil climbs back to about $106

    Brent crude, the world's main oil price, rose on Monday and settled near $107 a barrel, its highest since late September. [12][29] Missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia counted for more with traders than President Trump's news of extra Russian diesel and a pause in Russian and Ukrainian strikes on energy sites. [12] Goldman Sachs, a US bank, raised its December forecast for Brent to $90 from $85. [12] Brent is still more than 70% higher this year. [29]

    Why it matters — Goldman puts the extra price that comes from war risk at just over $20 a barrel. [12] Ukraine's president said on Monday that Russia had already broken the energy pause. [12]

12. 13

    Saudi Arabia plans pipelines around Hormuz

    Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said on Monday that a gas pipeline is being converted to carry crude oil too. [30] It could move about 1 million barrels a day within eight weeks, and 3 million with more spending. [30] He said the kingdom may have 10 million barrels a day of pipelines within two to three years. [30] Saudi Arabia's government, not Aramco, the state oil company, is paying. [30]

    Why it matters — Pipelines would let Saudi oil avoid the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers keep being hit. [12] Analysts at CSIS, a US research group, warned that Iran is unlikely to stand by. [30]

13. 14

    Tanker owners' shares hit records

    Shares in the oil-tanker companies Torm, Hafnia and Teekay Tankers reached record highs on Monday. [31] Freight rates, the price of hiring a ship, have soared because tankers avoiding Hormuz take longer routes and pay more for insurance. [31] That leaves fewer ships free at any one time. [31] A fund that holds global shipping shares also hit an all-time high. [31]

    Why it matters — The charge for hiring the ship is paid on top of the oil itself, so a delivered barrel costs buyers more than Brent shows. [31]

14. 15

    A consultancy says oil demand may have peaked

    World demand for crude oil may have peaked in 2025, FGE NexantECA, an energy consultancy, said in a report. [32] More fuel is now made from plants and from gases such as ethane. [32] Electric vehicles are cutting petrol use and starting to cut diesel use. [32] It compares this year's Hormuz crisis with the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, which also came six years apart and cut oil use for good. [32]

    Why it matters — If it is right, refiners, oil drillers and OPEC, the group of big oil-exporting countries, face a harder future. [32]

15. 16

    UK van drivers face GBP2.5bn more for diesel

    Britain's van and pickup owners will spend almost GBP8.5bn at the pump this year, GBP2.5bn more than in 2025, Moneysupermarket, a price-comparison site, estimated. [13] Diesel passed GBP2 a litre this month, up more than 40% since late February. [13] About 95% of vans still run on diesel. [13] Britain's government plans to raise fuel duty, the tax on fuel, by 3p a litre from 1 January. [13]

    Why it matters — The Road Haulage Association, which speaks for lorry firms, says many members earn about 2% on their sales and calls a duty rise a food price rise. [13] It wants a 15p-a-litre rebate like those in Spain, France and Italy. [13]

16. 17

    China's home car sales fall for a 12th month

    Car sales inside China fell 28.1% in September from a year earlier, to 1.63 million, the China Passenger Car Association said on Monday. [33] It was the 12th monthly fall in a row. [33] Exports jumped 73.2% to 923,000 cars. [33] Weak spending and a long slump in property are holding Chinese buyers back. [33]

    -28.1%Sold inside China

    vsvs

    +73.2%Sent abroad

    Why it matters — Exports of electric and plug-in hybrid cars grew 163.5%. [33] Europe is now capping some of those imports, as the story below shows. [34]

17. 18

    Volkswagen's deliveries fall 14%

    Volkswagen, the German carmaker, delivered 1.89 million vehicles from July to September, 14.3% fewer than a year earlier. [35] Its deliveries in China, its largest market, fell 38.5%. [35] They also fell 5.8% in North America and 2.8% in western Europe. [35] Its truck arm, Traton, sold 10% more, led by a 48% jump at its US brand. [35]

    Why it matters — China is Volkswagen's biggest market, and its deliveries there are down 30.2% since January. [35]

18. 19

    EU caps Chinese hybrid cars at 350,000 a year

    The European Union confirmed on Monday that it will limit hybrid cars imported from China to 350,000 a year. [34] At the Paris motor show, the heads of Stellantis, which owns Fiat and Vauxhall, and Renault said Britain should count as European under the EU's planned Made in Europe rules. [34] Those rules would keep EV grants and public orders for cars made in Europe. [34] Renault's boss said Britain should also limit Chinese car imports. [34]

    Why it matters — Stellantis still builds small vans at Ellesmere Port in England, so the rules decide whether those vans count as European. [34] Britain's business secretary said this month that tariffs on Chinese cars are under review. [34]

19. 20

    Singapore's big banks lose $22bn in a week

    Shares in Singapore's three big banks, DBS, OCBC and UOB, lost a combined $22.4bn in value last week. [16] They make up more than half of the Straits Times Index, which is 6.6% below its peak of five weeks ago. [16] Higher bond yields make their dividends look less attractive and cause losses on the bonds they hold. [16] Citigroup, a US bank, told its clients to sell OCBC shares. [16]

    Why it matters — Investors had treated Singapore as a calm place during the Iran war and the swings in AI shares, so the slide tests that reputation. [16] The banks report their results in November. [16]

20. 21

    Singapore's leader refuses a weaker currency

    Singapore's prime minister, Lawrence Wong, said on Monday the country will not push its currency down to make its exports cheaper. [36] Singapore's central bank steers the economy through the exchange rate, not through interest rates. [36] A strong Singapore dollar keeps the price of imported goods down. [36] It also makes Singapore's goods and services dearer for foreign buyers. [36]

    Why it matters — Exporters carry that cost, and Wong said they must count it along with Singapore's other high costs. [36] He said companies choose a country for skills and stability, not only for low prices. [36]

21. 22

    Bumble jumps 50% on talk of a buyout

    Shares in Bumble, a dating app, jumped nearly 50% on Monday. [37] The Wall Street Journal reported that it is in advanced talks to be bought for about $1bn by Ithaca Holdings, a new firm set up by two Silicon Valley executives. [37] Bumble was worth about $335m at Friday's close, so the reported price is almost three times that. [37] Its shares had fallen more than 90% since it listed in 2021. [37]

    $335mBumble's value, Friday

    ↓→

    $1bnReported buyout price

    Why it matters — Its founder, Whitney Wolfe Herd, is expected to keep part of her stake and stay involved. [37] A deal could come this week if the talks hold. [37]

22. 23

    Starbucks says it is not buying Chipotle

    Starbucks said on Monday that it is not buying Chipotle, the burrito chain, after days of rumours. [38] The Financial Times had reported last Thursday that Starbucks was working with advisers on a bid. [38] Chipotle's shares fell nearly 4% after the denial, and Starbucks shares rose 1%. [38] Chipotle's shares are down about 20% over the past year, which had made it a cheaper target. [38]

    Why it matters — It would have been the biggest restaurant takeover ever. [38] Chipotle had already hired advisers to fend off an unwanted bid, Semafor reported earlier this month. [38]

23. 24

    HCL Tech's profit jumps 21%

    HCL Technologies, a big Indian IT services firm, said on Monday that its profit for July to September rose 21% from a year earlier, to Rs 5,132 crore (51.3 billion rupees). [39] Its revenue grew 11%. [39] Its income from AI work rose 78% to $219m. [39] It added 6,450 employees in the quarter and will pay a dividend of Rs 12 a share. [39]

    Why it matters — HCL is one of eight firms the US barred last week from starting green-card applications for foreign workers. [40]

24. 25

    Indian savers set a record for monthly fund plans

    Indians put a record Rs 32,490 crore (325 billion rupees) into monthly mutual-fund plans in September, figures from the industry body AMFI showed. [41] A mutual fund pools many savers' money to buy shares and bonds. Funds that buy small and mid-sized companies took 44% of the new money going into share funds. [41] Big funds now often bid Rs 1,500 crore to Rs 2,000 crore in a single new share sale. [42]

    Why it matters — Fund managers warn that small companies' shares can be hard to sell quickly if many savers want their money back at once. [41] India's index of its 50 biggest companies is about 15% below its peak. [41]

25. 26

    Ecobank joins China's payment system

    Ecobank, a bank based in Togo that works in 34 African countries, agreed to join CIPS, China's system for settling payments in yuan. [43] It will sign the agreement this month. [43] South Africa's Standard Bank and the African Export-Import Bank joined in the past year. [43] Trade between China and Africa rose 18% last year, led by African purchases of Chinese solar equipment. [43]

    Why it matters — African firms will be able to settle deals with China in yuan instead of dollars. [43] China removed tariffs this year on imports from every African country except Eswatini. [43]

26. 27

    OPay files for a $4bn New York listing

    OPay, a payments and lending app based in Lagos, Nigeria, has filed to list its shares in New York, probably next month. [44] Its revenue rose 137% to $467m in the first half of 2026, and its profit more than tripled to $91m. [44] Lending is now its biggest source of income. [44] Earlier reports put the company's value at about $4bn. [44]

    Why it matters — It would be the first US listing of a fintech, a technology firm selling financial services, whose customers are mostly in Nigeria. [44] Standard Bank, Africa's biggest lender, plans to invest up to $200m. [44]

27. 28

    Court cases slow Dangote's Kenya refinery

    A $16bn oil refinery that the Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote plans on Kenya's coast faces a growing pile of court cases. [45] A court has halted building until it hears more than 100 Lamu residents who say the site is their ancestral land. [45] President William Ruto says the refinery could raise Kenya's yearly output by 12%. [45] Opposition leaders want the contract made public, and Kenya votes in ten months. [45]

    Why it matters — Last month a Kenyan court ruled illegal the $1.6bn sale of Kenya's stake in Safaricom, a phone company, to Vodafone. That money was meant to pay for Ruto's building plans too. [45]

28. 29

    1MDB in talks to settle with Deutsche Bank

    1MDB, a Malaysian state fund at the centre of a huge corruption scandal, is in talks to settle its lawsuit against Deutsche Bank, its lawyer told a court on Monday. [46] US prosecutors say at least $4.5bn was stolen from the fund between 2009 and 2014. [46] 1MDB sued Deutsche and other banks in 2021 to win money back. [46] The case is due to be heard on 26 October. [46]

    Why it matters — Malaysia says billions more are still missing. [46] Deutsche said in 2021 that it saw no basis for a claim, and it declined to comment now. [46]

29. 30

    Qatar National Bank beats forecasts but trims its outlook

    Qatar National Bank, a Qatari lender with branches from Egypt to Singapore, said profit for the first nine months rose 4% to 13.3 billion riyals, about $3.7bn. [47] Its earnings for the quarter beat analysts' forecasts. [47] But it cut its full-year outlook for profit, loans and deposits. [47] Its shares fell 3.1% at first, then closed 2.2% higher. [47]

    Why it matters — Lending inside Qatar grew only 3%, while Egypt and the bank's branches abroad grew faster. [47] Bad loans rose, mostly in Turkey. [47]

30. 31

    Saba fights for a UK trust that owns AI stars

    Saba Capital, a New York hedge fund that owns nearly 30% of the Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, wants three of its people on the trust's board. [48] The trust is listed in London and owns stakes in Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX and Stripe. [48] Shareholders vote at next week's annual meeting. [48] Saba says its directors would offer every shareholder a cash exit near the value of the trust's holdings. [48]

    Why it matters — The board says it already offered Saba that exit and Saba turned it down, the Guardian's Nils Pratley writes. [48] Shareholders have voted Saba down twice in 18 months. [48]

31. 32

    Tanzania aims to triple foreign investment

    Tanzania's prime minister, Mwigulu Nchemba, said the country is aiming for $15bn of foreign investment a year, about three times last year's. [49] He spoke at an investment forum in London. [49] The UN estimates that 42% of Tanzanians are 14 or younger. [49] He said Tanzania's government cannot employ all its school leavers, so private firms must create the jobs. [49]

    Why it matters — Tanzania's government has paid for railways, ports and power plants to build up industry. [49] Tanzania holds gas, copper, lithium, cobalt, gold and diamonds. [49]