Australia's central bank raises its rate to 4.85%, the highest since 2008, in a 6-3 vote

The stories

29 stories on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   Australia's central bank raises its rate to 4.85%, the highest since 2008, in a 6-3 vote

   4.85%

   Australia's main interest rate after Tuesday's rise

   the highest since 2008, after 5 rises this year [1]

   6 to 3

   board vote to raise the rate rather than wait

   the 3 who wanted to wait worried about jobs and housing [3]

   A$107

   more a month on a A$700,000 home loan

   A$532 more over the year's 5 rises, Canstar says [1]

   4.7%

   price rise the bank now expects by the end of 2026

   up from its earlier forecast of 3.6% [4]

   What happened

   • Australia's central bank raised its main interest rate to 4.85% on Tuesday, up from 4.6%. [1] It is the highest rate since 2008. [1]
   • It was the bank's 5th rise this year. [2]
   • The rise lands on more than 3.3 million Australian households with home loans. [1]
   • Prices in Australia rose 4.3% in the year to September, up from 4% in August. [2]
   • The bank aims for prices to rise between 2% and 3% a year. [1]
   • The bank's board split: 6 members voted to raise, and 3 voted to wait. [1]
   • The 3 worried about rising unemployment and a weak housing market, Bullock said. [3]
   • Bullock said they felt 'maybe we should wait a bit longer to get some more data'. [3]
   • The bank now expects prices to rise 4.7% by the end of 2026. [4] Its earlier forecast was 3.6%. [4]
   • It expects price rises to drop below 3% only by the end of next year. [1] That is about 9 months later than it hoped. [1]
   • It sees the economy growing 1.6% this year and 1.3% in 2027. [1] Both are below the about 2% it can grow without pushing up prices. [1]
   • The bank nearly tripled its forecast for business investment growth this year, to 12%, as AI building goes on. [1]
   • On a home loan of A$700,000, the rise adds about A$107 a month, says Canstar, a site that compares loans. [1]
   • Over this year's 5 rises, that loan's monthly payment is up A$532. [1]
   • Macquarie, one of Australia's banks, will raise its variable home-loan rates by 0.25 points from 19 November. [3]
   • Macquarie will also pay 0.25 points more on its variable savings accounts. [3]
   • The Australian dollar fell from 70.21 US cents on Monday to 69.77 after the decision. [3]
   • Economists at UBS, a Swiss bank, called the decision 'clearly dovish'. [3] That is traders' word for a sign that more rises are less likely. [3]
   • The bank's statement left out any clear promise of more rises. [1]
   • Australia's main share index, the ASX 200, still rose 0.3% to 8,886.8. [3]
   • Bullock said: 'Independence is a two-way street.' [3] She does not set Australia's spending, and ministers do not set rates, she said. [3]

   Earlier forecast3.6%

   New forecast4.7%

   Top of the target3%

   Who is involved

   The Reserve Bank of Australia is the country's central bank, which sets its main interest rate. [2]

   Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who runs Australia's budget, said its budgets are not pushing prices up. [3]

   • Jim Chalmers Australia's treasurer, in charge of the budget; says the budget is not the cause
   • Michele Bullock governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the country's central bank; announced the 5th rise
   • Macquarie Bank an Australian bank; first to pass the rise on, to loans and to savings

   How it unfolded

   In September, Governor Michele Bullock blamed dearer oil from the Iran war and strong spending at home. [2]

   On Tuesday she said Australia already had too much demand before oil prices jumped. [3]

   1. Now prices up 4.3% a year
   2. End of next year back below 3%
   3. 3 Nov the central bank raises its rate
   4. 19 Nov Macquarie's higher loan and savings rates start [3]
   5. Earlier in 2026 4 rate rises, as oil and spending push prices up [3]
   6. September prices up 4.3% in a year, from 4% in August [2]
   7. 3 Nov 5th rise, to 4.85%, on a 6-3 vote [1]

   Why it matters

   Bullock said high prices hurt most 'Australians on lower incomes, including people who rent'. [3]

   Mortgage holders pay more each month. [1] Savers at banks such as Macquarie earn more on their deposits. [3]

   How it works

   Economists call this monetary policy: a central bank makes borrowing dearer to bring price rises back to its target. [4]

   Macquarie passes the rise on to its home loans. [3] Borrowers then have less money left each month to spend. [1]

   Bullock warned that when people expect higher prices, firms raise theirs early, and the rise feeds itself. [3]

   Seen it before

   When a family's rent goes up, it eats out less, and the cafe down the road sells fewer meals.

   The truth

   • Asked if rates would be this high without the war, Bullock said: 'I don't know the answer to that.' [3]
   • Who gains Savers at Macquarie — Their variable savings accounts pay 0.25 points more from 19 November. [3]
   • Who pays Australians with home loans — Banks pass the rise on, and Macquarie's higher loan rates start on 19 November. [3]
   • Who pays Australian renters on low incomes — Bullock said high prices hurt them most, as many have little or no savings to fall back on. [3]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Australia's 5th rise this year is its last.

     Capital Economics says the next move will be a cut. [4] Bullock says the 3 votes to wait are no sign that rises are over. [3]

1. 02

   Oil falls 7.6% on hopes of an Iran deal

   What happened

   • Brent, the world's main oil price, fell 7.63% to $104.77 a barrel on Monday. [5]
   • It was the sharpest one-day drop in months. [11] US oil fell 7.4% to $96.46 a barrel in New York. [15]
   • Iran offered to reopen it within 2 days, on terms including the US lifting its blockade of Iran's ports. [16]
   • Oil rose 0.5% early on Tuesday after reports that the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island. [5]

   Who is involved

   • Iran in talks
   • Qatar the go-between

   How it unfolded

   Iran held a 3rd day of talks in Qatar about ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. [16]

   1. Monday Brent down 7.63%
   2. Tuesday up 0.5% after a strike

   Why it matters

   Falling oil eased fears of rising prices and pulled down long-term US borrowing costs. [11]

   How it works

   Commodity traders call the extra paid for the chance of a shortage a risk premium. [5]

   Talks made a blocked strait look less likely, so the premium shrank on Monday. [16] The strike report added some back on Tuesday. [5]

   Seen it before

   Match tickets cost more while fans fear a sell-out, and less once plenty of seats are left.

   The truth

   • No extra oil reached the market on Monday, an Investing.com analysis noted. [16]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Iran and the US agree a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

     The talks in Qatar ended with changed proposals but no breakthrough. [6] The US struck Qeshm Island the same day. [5]

   Good news

   • Brent oil fell 7.63% to $104.77 a barrel on Monday, its sharpest one-day drop in months, as Iran held a third day of talks in Qatar on ending the war.
2. 03

   Marvell agrees to buy Lumentum in shares

   What happened

   • Marvell, a US chip maker, agreed on Monday to buy Lumentum, which makes optical parts for data centres. [17]
   • The deal values Lumentum at $115 billion, counting its debt, and is paid entirely in Marvell shares. [17]
   • Lumentum's owners get 4.5 Marvell shares for 1 Lumentum share. [18] That was worth about $1,132 a share, 23.9% above the price before talk of a deal. [18]
   • Afterwards Marvell's owners will hold about 67% of the joined company, and Lumentum's about 33%. [18]
   • Marvell's shares fell more than 10% on Monday, and Lumentum's more than 15%. [17]

   Who is involved

   Optical parts carry data between AI chips with light, faster than copper wires can. [17]

   • Marvell the buyer, a chip maker
   • Lumentum makes optical parts

   Why it matters

   Some analysts doubt Marvell should take on a deal worth more than half its own market value. [17]

   How it works

   In corporate finance, a set swap like 4.5 shares is called a fixed exchange ratio. [18]

   Lumentum's owners are paid in Marvell shares. [17] So when Marvell's price fell, their payment was worth less too. [17]

   Seen it before

   Swap your bike for a friend's game cards, and your bike is now worth whatever those cards sell for.

   The truth

   • Reuters worked out that the deal values Lumentum at 33 times its expected yearly core profit. [17] Similar firms sell for about 16 times. [17]
   • Who gains Lumentum's owners — They will own part of a bigger company, though their payment now rises and falls with Marvell's shares. [17]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How far Marvell's and Lumentum's shares really fell on Monday.

     Reuters reported falls of more than 10% and 15%. [17] CNBC said about 12% and 18%. [9] Dow Jones said both lost more than 15%. [58]

   What comes next

   The deal needs owners' and regulators' approval and is due to close in the first half of 2028. [18]

3. 04

   Oracle raises $20 billion, half in new shares

   What happened

   • Oracle, a US software and cloud firm, sold $10 billion of new shares and $10 billion of bonds on Monday. [19]
   • It sold 86,206,897 new shares at $116 each. [12]
   • Its bonds pay 7% a year on loans due in 2029, up to 8.65% on loans due in 2046. [12]
   • In between, it pays 7.45% to 2031, 7.85% to 2033 and 8% to 2037. [12]
   • Its shares still fell 8.8% on Monday, and are down 33% this year. [19]
   • Oracle owed $125.34 billion at the end of August. [20]

   How it unfolded

   Last week Oracle pledged to raise no more than $20 billion of new money for AI through 2030. [20]

   Why it matters

   Oracle is building data centres for AI and is heavily exposed to OpenAI, the loss-making maker of ChatGPT. [20]

   How it works

   In credit analysis, a lender charges more interest the more it fears not being repaid. [21]

   Analysts at CreditSights say Oracle's bonds trade like 'junk', the riskier grade of debt. [21] So it pays high interest to borrow. [21]

   Seen it before

   A friend who has been slow to pay back before must promise more to borrow again.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Investors are making AI builders pay more for money: Oracle's new bonds due in 2046 pay 8.65% a year, and lenders want more from QTS than 6 months ago. [12][10]
   • 'This seems to be exactly what they previewed,' said Baird analyst Rob Oliver of Monday's fall. [19]
   • Who gains Buyers of Oracle's new bonds — They are paid a fixed yearly interest until as late as 2046. [12]
   • Who pays Oracle's existing owners — Each owner's slice of Oracle gets smaller as the new shares are added. [12]
4. 05

   Big US tech shares fall into a correction

   What happened

   • The Nasdaq 100, an index of big US tech shares, fell 1.4% to 27,989.82 on Monday. [8]
   • That left it more than 10% below its 6 October peak. [8] Traders call a fall that size a correction. [8]
   • It is the index's 3rd correction this year, though it is still up 11% for 2026. [8]
   • The wider S&P 500 fell 0.51%. [15] The Dow, an index of 30 big US firms, rose 0.41%. [15]
   • Intel, the US chip maker, fell another 8% on Monday. [22] It dropped 45% in October, its worst month on record. [22]

   Why it matters

   Investors fear big tech firms are spending more on AI than it will pay back. [8]

   The truth

   • 'I don't think the AI trade is dead, but it did get ahead of itself,' said fund manager Brian Culpepper. [8]

1. 06

   Apple beats forecasts as memory costs bite

   What happened

   • Apple's sales rose 12% to $114.5 billion in the 3 months to late September. [23]
   • Its profit was $30.7 billion, and both beat analysts' forecasts. [23]
   • Apple expects its profit margin to fall to 45% to 46% this quarter, from 47.9%. [23]
   • Its shares fell as much as 4% after hours, then traded 2.7% down. [23]

   Who is involved

   They were the first results under John Ternus, who took over from Tim Cook as boss on 1 September. [24]

   • John Ternus Apple's new boss

   How it unfolded

   Before the results, options traders priced a move of just under 4%, against 2.5% on average after past results. [25]

   Apple raised prices across its range in June, including $100 more for iPhones. [24]

   Why it matters

   'What we're seeing with memory pricing right now is unprecedented,' Ternus said. [26]

   AI data centres buy the same memory chips, so phone and laptop makers pay more. [27]

   How it works

   Accountants call the share of each sale left after making the product the gross margin. [23]

   Price rises covered only part of dearer memory: without tariff refunds, margins fell about 1 point. [27] And memory costs keep rising this quarter. [23]

   Seen it before

   A lemonade stand that pays more for lemons keeps less from each cup, unless it charges more.

   Why options cost more just before a company's results

   Before results, options cost more because the share could jump either way, and traders call that extra implied volatility.

   The twist

   The price of an option tells you how big a move traders fear. It says nothing about which way the share will go.

   The picture

   Move options priced11.5%

   Average past move10%

   Move after Monday's results3%

   Step by step

   1. 1 An option is a paid right to buy or sell a share at a set price later
   2. 2 Its price rises with how far the share might swing before then
   3. 3 Before results, a big swing is more likely, so options cost more
   4. 4 From that price, traders work out the move the market expects
   5. 5 Once the news is out, options get cheaper again

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Palantir's sales grow 96%

     Options were priced for an 11.5% move before the results. The shares then dipped about 3%, far less than the move buyers had paid for.

   • Apple's first results under Ternus

     Options were priced for a move of just under 4%, against 2.5% on average after past results. The shares fell 2.7% after hours.

   Where you've seen this

   Home insurance before a storm

   insurers charge more, or stop selling cover, when a big storm is on its way

   Concert resale tickets

   prices jump before the line-up is named and settle once it is known

   Fixed-price energy deals

   suppliers charge more to fix a price for a year when bills are swinging wildly

   The catch

   The option price shows only how big a move traders fear. The real move can be much bigger or much smaller, as Palantir's was.

   And the whole of it

   The traders buying protection, the traders selling it and the company reading out its results all wait on the same evening, and none of them knows the number first. Anyone whose pension holds these shares is waiting with them.

   The truth

   • Apple's sales in Greater China, $17.54 billion, missed analysts' $18.75 billion forecast. [28]

1. 07

   Palantir's sales grow 96%, its shares dip

   What happened

   • Palantir, a US maker of data and AI software, said its sales rose 96% from a year before. [29]
   • Sales reached $2.31 billion, its first quarter above $2 billion. [30]
   • Sales to US businesses rose 148% to $984 million. [30] For the first time, that beat sales to the US government, of $953 million. [30]
   • Its profit more than doubled to $1.13 billion. [30]
   • Its shares dipped about 3% in late trading. [30]

   How it unfolded

   Before the results, options traders priced an 11.5% move in its shares, against a 10% average after past results. [25]

   Why it matters

   Investors watch Palantir as a test of whether companies will pay for AI software. [29]

   How it works

   Options were priced for an 11.5% move before the results. The shares then dipped about 3%, far less than the move buyers had paid for.

   The idea, in story 06: Why options cost more just before a company's results →

   The truth

   • What is really going on Strong sales at Apple and Palantir did not lift their shares, which fell after the results. [23][30]
   • Chief executive Alex Karp called the quarter 'extraordinary', yet the shares fell 3.6% after first rising. [29]
2. 08

   Anthropic shows $17 billion of sales before listing

   What happened

   • Anthropic, the AI company that makes Claude, updated its share-sale papers on Monday. [31]
   • Its sales were about $17 billion in July to September, 47% more than in the 3 months before. [32]
   • It lost $23.29 billion in the quarter. [31] Over 9 months, most of its loss came from revaluing loans that can turn into shares. [31]
   • It has signed deals to spend about $895.4 billion, almost all on computing power and buildings. [31]
   • About $447.5 billion of it falls due by the end of 2030, and $447.9 billion from 2031 to 2045. [32]
   • It held $131.8 billion in cash and short-term investments in September. [32] Nearly $70 billion of its signed spending is due within a year. [32]

   Why it matters

   The figures arrive as investors grow wary of how much AI firms spend. [31]

   The truth

   • Why it works on people A huge sales figure draws the eye away from the bills behind it: Anthropic's $17 billion quarter sits beside $895.4 billion of signed spending. [32][31]
   • Growth is slowing from quarter to quarter: 47% now, against 144% in the quarter before. [31]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How Anthropic pays for its signed spending in the years after 2030.

     About half of the $895.4 billion falls due between 2031 and 2045, and it depends on sales that have not happened yet. [32]

   What comes next

   Anthropic plans to list its shares in New York later this month. [33]

3. 09

   China moves to slow the yuan's rise

   What happened

   • China's central bank will make banks keep 6% of their foreign-currency deposits with it, up from 4%. [34]
   • The change starts on 15 November. [34]
   • The yuan fell on Tuesday, heading for its biggest one-day drop in 6 months. [35] One dollar bought 0.3% more yuan, at 6.6705. [36]
   • Reuters estimates the rule takes about $24 billion out of China's banking system. [37]

   How it unfolded

   The yuan has risen more than 5% against the dollar this year. [37] In October it reached its strongest in more than 4 years. [34]

   Why it matters

   A stronger yuan makes Chinese goods dearer abroad, and exports drive China's economy. [34]

   How it works

   Central bankers call this a reserve requirement: a share of deposits banks must park with the central bank. [34]

   Parked dollars cannot be swapped for yuan. [36] So demand for yuan falls, and its rise slows. [36]

   Seen it before

   If a school holds back some of every pupil's pocket money, the tuck shop sells fewer sweets.

   The truth

   • The bank cut this same ratio in September 2023, when it wanted to stop the yuan falling. [37]
4. 10

   China adds more help for its share market

   What happened

   • China's central bank cut the rate on a cheap-loan scheme for share buybacks to 1%, from 1.25%. [38]
   • It also made the scheme permanent, after Monday's meeting with regulators, banks and fund firms. [38]
   • The scheme lends cheap money to banks. [38] They lend it on to firms and big owners buying shares. [38]
   • China's stock regulator approved 31 broker and fund firms for a 3rd round of a swap tool funding share buying. [38]

   How it unfolded

   Both tools began in October 2024 to steady China's share market. [38]

   The CSI 300, China's main share index, fell 8.5% in October, its worst month in more than a decade. [38]

   Why it matters

   China's government wants a 'slow bull' market that draws household savings into shares. [38]

   The truth

   • 'The government wants to be seen as supportive, or investor confidence could decline even further,' Gavekal analysts wrote. [38]
5. 11

   Korea's shares fall 3.57% as chip makers slide

   What happened

   • South Korea's Kospi index fell 3.57% on Tuesday, after tech losses in New York. [9]
   • Samsung Electronics, the heaviest share in the index, fell 4.04%. [9] SK Hynix, another memory-chip maker, was down 3.8% earlier. [39]
   • Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.0%, and Japan's markets were shut for a holiday. [39]
   • Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.52%, and Australia's ASX 200 was up 0.39%. [9]

   Why it matters

   Investors doubt record spending on AI, and chip shares were the biggest losers. [39]

   The truth

   • 'The market hasn't lost faith in AI, but it's losing patience,' said Chris Weston of Pepperstone, a broker. [39]
6. 12

   US long-term borrowing costs fall to two-month lows

   What happened

   • The yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 4.893% on Monday. [15]
   • During the day it touched under 4.87%, its lowest since 10 September. [41]
   • The 30-year yield fell to 5.268%. [15]
   • The dollar index, which measures the dollar against the euro, the yen and others, hit a 1-month low on Monday. [11]

   Who is involved

   Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions, CNBC notes. [40]

   How it unfolded

   US government bonds just had their biggest monthly rise in price in more than 2 years. [41]

   Why it matters

   Cheaper oil eased fears that the US central bank will keep raising rates. [41]

   How it works

   Bond traders watch the inflation outlook, meaning how fast prices are expected to rise. [41]

   Slower expected price rises mean fewer rate rises, so lenders accept less interest on long loans. [41]

   The truth

   • Traders still expect at least 2 more quarter-point US rate rises by the end of next year. [41]
7. 13

   Gold climbs back from a one-year low

   What happened

   • Gold rose more than 2% on Monday to $3,954.41 an ounce. [6]
   • It slipped 0.5% to $3,926.52 early on Tuesday as traders waited for the US vote. [6]
   • Silver futures on India's MCX exchange fell 20% in October, their steepest monthly drop. [42]
   • Traders see a 74% chance that the US central bank raises rates in December, CME's FedWatch tool shows. [6]

   How it unfolded

   It had fallen to its lowest in a year on Friday. [6]

   1. Friday lowest in a year
   2. Monday up more than 2%
   3. Tuesday down 0.5%

   Why it matters

   Cheaper oil eased fears of rising prices, and of higher US rates. [6]

   How it works

   Investors call the interest you give up by holding something the opportunity cost. [6]

   Gold pays no interest. [6] So when higher rates look less likely, holding it costs less, and buyers return. [6]

   Seen it before

   Keeping cash in a drawer costs nothing, until a bank offers a good rate on savings.

   The truth

   • Gold 'continues to be sold' to cover losses elsewhere, not bought as a safe place, said KCM Trade's Tim Waterer. [6]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US central bank raises rates in December.

     Traders put the chance at 74%, but cheaper oil has cut the rises they expect. [6][41]

8. 14

   Shares outside tech rise as oil falls

   What happened

   • London's FTSE 250, an index of mid-sized British firms, rose 1.4% on Monday. [33]
   • The FTSE 100 rose 0.3%, Paris's CAC 40 1.0% and Frankfurt's DAX 0.6%. [33]
   • Canada's main share index rose 0.5% to 35,801.09. [7]
   • In Canada, firms that build and make things rose 2.5%, while energy shares fell 4.8%. [7]
   • Mining shares there rose 2.3% after a 13.1% fall in October. [7]

   Why it matters

   The sharp drop in oil prices lifted investors' mood, Reuters reported. [7]

   The truth

   • Canada's factories shrank in October for the first time this year. [7]
9. 15

   India's shares jump on a tax idea for foreign funds

   What happened

   • India's Nifty 50 and Sensex share indexes both jumped 1.7% on Monday. [43]
   • The Sensex closed at its highest in about 8 weeks, and the Nifty in about 5. [43]
   • Sebi, India's market regulator, has reportedly advised the government to drop a tax on foreign investors' gains. [44]
   • Foreign funds now pay a 12.5% tax on gains from shares held more than 12 months. [44]
   • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said of investors' complaints: 'I recognise the voice.' [45]
   • Foreign funds bought a net 31.15 billion rupees of Indian shares on Monday. [43]

   Who is involved

   • Sebi India's market regulator

   How it unfolded

   They had pulled more than 2.34 trillion rupees out of Indian shares this year. [44]

   Why it matters

   Sitharaman said India needs share investment to keep its economy growing above 7% a year. [45]

   How it works

   Public finance calls this tax competition: countries' tax rates compete for the same investors. [44]

   Mint reports India's gains taxes are less competitive than some other countries', which may push foreign funds away. [44]

   Seen it before

   If two shops sell the same game but one adds a fee at the till, buyers go next door.

   The truth

   • Sitharaman noted India's taxes were much the same in 2023-24, when foreign money poured in. [45]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether India drops its gains tax on foreign investors.

     Sebi's advice was reported by two unnamed people, and Sitharaman would not say more before the budget. [44][45]

   What comes next

   India's next budget, where any tax change would appear, is due in February. [44]

10. 16

    Foreign funds own the least of India's shares since 2011

    What happened

    • Foreign funds held 14.02% of shares in India's listed firms at the end of September. [46]
    • That is the lowest since December 2011, a Mint study of 5,638 firms found. [46]
    • Their share peaked at 20.09% in December 2020. [46]
    • Foreign funds' share of anchor buying fell to 36.16% this year, a 5-year low. [47]
    • Indian funds and insurers are taking their place. [47]

    Who is involved

    Big investors commit to new share sales a day early; these are called anchor investors. [47]

    Why it matters

    A fund manager blamed high US bond yields, a strong dollar and pricey Indian shares. [46]

    The truth

    • Foreign funds still bought a net 13,970 crore rupees of shares in the July-September quarter. [46]
    • Who gains Indian funds and insurers — They take a bigger part of new Indian share sales as foreign funds hold back. [47]
11. 17

    ITC's profit falls 18% on cigarette taxes

    What happened

    • ITC, an Indian firm selling cigarettes, snacks and paper, made 4,229.33 crore rupees in July to September. [48]
    • That was 18.45% less than a year before; a crore is 10 million. [48]
    • Its revenue still rose 43.85%. [48]
    • Profit from cigarettes, most of its earnings, fell more than 27%. [48]

    How it unfolded

    India raised cigarette taxes steeply, Mint reports, and that cut legal sales. [48]

    Why it matters

    ITC's owners carry the fall: its shares are down 34% this year. [48]

    How it works

    Economists call the question of who really pays a tax its incidence. [48]

    Higher taxes made cigarettes dearer, so legal sales fell. [48] Mint says smokers may also switch to illegal, untaxed packs. [48]

    Seen it before

    When a tuck shop puts its prices up, some pupils bring snacks from home instead.

    The truth

    • Who pays Cigarette buyers in India — Steep tax rises have made legal cigarettes dearer, Mint reports. [48]
12. 18

    Coal India files to sell shares in a mining unit

    What happened

    • South Eastern Coalfields, a unit of state-owned Coal India, filed papers on 1 November to sell shares. [14]
    • Coal India will sell up to 66.81 crore of its shares in the unit. [14]
    • The sale could raise as much as $800 million, Bloomberg reported. [14]
    • The unit's profit nearly doubled to 2,174.3 crore rupees in the 6 months to September. [14]

    Who is involved

    Its profit a year before was 1,140.9 crore rupees. [14] It mines nearly 17% of India's coal. [14]

    Why it matters

    It is part of India's plan to list Coal India's mining units on the market. [14]

    How it works

    Public finance calls this disinvestment: the state sells part of a company it owns. [14]

    Here Coal India sells existing shares, so the money goes to Coal India, not to the mining unit. [14]

    Seen it before

    A family selling a share in its corner shop gets the money; the shop itself gets nothing new.

13. 19

    Egypt sells 45% of a state bank

    What happened

    • Egypt raised about $658 million on Monday by selling shares in Banque du Caire, a state-owned bank. [13]
    • Banque Misr, its main owner, sold 45% of the bank at 5.30 Egyptian pounds a share. [13]
    • The sale valued the bank at about $1.46 billion. [13]
    • The EBRD, a European development bank, bought 6.9% for $100 million. [13]

    Who is involved

    • EBRD a European development bank; bought 6.9%

    How it unfolded

    Egypt has promised to sell stakes in more than 30 state firms under its IMF loan programme. [13] The IMF lends to countries in trouble. [13]

    The bank's boss said this listing had been tried on and off for more than 20 years. [13]

    Why it matters

    The sales aim to shrink the state's role in Egypt's economy and bring in private firms. [13]

    How it works

    Economists call it privatisation when a state sells firms it owns to private investors. [13]

    Egypt promised these sales under its IMF deal, so each one meets part of that promise. [13]

14. 20

    Nigeria's OPay calls off its New York listing

    What happened

    • OPay, a payments app used mostly in Nigeria, pulled its $304 million share sale in New York on Friday. [49]
    • It had priced its shares at $19, the bottom of its range, valuing it at just over $4 billion. [49]
    • Trading never began. [49] OPay said an inquiry by an unnamed foreign regulator made it unwise to go ahead. [49]

    Who is involved

    Standard Bank, Africa's biggest lender, had agreed to invest up to $200 million. [49]

    How it unfolded

    OPay had also planned a second listing in Nigeria after New York. [49]

    Why it matters

    It is a setback for African tech firms trying to win over global investors. [49]

    The truth

    • Nobody knows yet

      Which regulator stopped OPay's New York listing, and why.

      OPay named neither the regulator nor what the inquiry is about. [49]

15. 21

    African lenders open a $5 billion energy bank

    What happened

    • African lenders launched the Africa Energy Bank with $5 billion to fund oil and gas projects. [50]
    • Africa needs about $200 billion of energy investment a year, say Afreximbank, a trade bank, and Africa's oil producers' group. [50]

    How it unfolded

    Many Western lenders have stopped lending to oil and gas projects. [50]

    Why it matters

    Surging energy prices this year strained African governments' budgets. [50]

    Several countries now plan new oil and gas fields or their own refineries. [50]

    The truth

    • The $200 billion estimate comes from Africa's oil producers' group and a trade bank, not from an outside body. [50]

    What comes next

    The bank will fund the whole energy chain, from exploration to production. [50]

16. 22

    Aramco buys 49% of Saudi AI firm HUMAIN

    What happened

    • Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, took 49% of HUMAIN, the kingdom's AI company. [51]
    • Aramco paid $2.6 billion in cash plus some of its own AI assets. [51]

    Who is involved

    Saudi Arabia's wealth fund, the PIF, owns the rest of HUMAIN and 16% of Aramco. [51]

    • PIF Saudi Arabia's wealth fund
    • Aramco the state oil company

    How it unfolded

    Aramco is also building a stadium and has borrowed in downturns to keep paying the state. [51]

    Why it matters

    The PIF is cutting back plans as its returns fall, so the state leans on Aramco's cash. [51]

    The truth

    • Nobody knows yet

      What AI assets Aramco handed to HUMAIN.

      Neither company has disclosed them. [51]

17. 23

    Lenders charge AI builders more

    What happened

    • QTS, a data-centre firm backed by the investment giant Blackstone, is offering lenders an $800 million loan. [10]
    • 6 months ago it weighed paying 1.7 points above US government rates. [10] Lenders now want 2.2 to 2.5 points. [10]
    • It is the same company, the same backing and the same security for the loan. [10]
    • SpaceX's $40 billion debt sale was expected to pay 8.75% on its riskier part. [10]
    • Blackstone no longer expects Anthropic to win a top credit grade right after listing, the FT reported. [10]

    Why it matters

    'The AI investment boom is bumping up against a rising cost of capital,' said Fidelity's Tom Stevenson. [33]

    How it works

    Bankers call the extra over government rates a credit spread. [10] It widens when lenders feel less safe. [10]

    Nothing about QTS changed; lenders grew wary of AI debt, so its spread rose. [10]

    Seen it before

    A bike shop charges more to rent out bikes after a run of them came back broken.

    The truth

    • Who gains Lenders to data-centre firms — They can ask more interest for the same company and the same security. [10]
18. 24

    Hedge funds cut their bets fastest in a decade

    What happened

    • Hedge funds that bet on some shares rising and others falling cut their total bets 8% from the peak. [52]
    • It is the biggest cut in at least 10 years, Morgan Stanley's data show. [52]
    • The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, closed Friday at 19.4, though the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%. [52]

    Why it matters

    SpotGamma, an options research firm, said a fall that size should have moved the gauge more. [52]

    How it works

    Options analysts call buying protection against a fall hedging. [52]

    Funds sold shares instead of buying protection. [52] With less to protect, demand for protection stayed low, and the gauge barely moved. [52]

    Seen it before

    Someone who gets off a wobbly bike no longer needs knee pads.

    The truth

    • The analysts offer this as one explanation, not a proven one. [52]
19. 25

    Ryanair may freeze pay as fuel costs rise

    What happened

    • Ryanair, Europe's biggest low-cost airline, said it is considering pay freezes. [53]
    • It expects its fuel bill to rise about 2 billion euros in the year to March 2028. [53]
    • It also wants fewer crew on each flight and more use of AI. [53]
    • Boss Michael O'Leary expects European short-haul fares to rise by up to 20%. [53]

    How it unfolded

    Airlines' deals fixing fuel prices in advance are running out. [53]

    Why it matters

    O'Leary said higher fares are 'unlikely to provide a full offset' for the bigger fuel bill. [53]

    The truth

    • Who pays Ryanair's staff — Ryanair says pay deals that come up for renewal may need temporary pay freezes. [53]
    • Nobody knows yet

      Whether Ryanair can freeze pay under deals already signed.

      Unite, a UK union, says its pay deal covers 2027 and does not depend on company performance. [53]

    What comes next

    Several pay deals come up for renegotiation from March, he said. [53]

20. 26

    Britain's biggest brickmaker cuts output

    What happened

    • Ibstock, Britain's biggest brickmaker, said sales were 22% below its expectations in July to September. [54]
    • It is cutting production by a fifth. [54] It now expects yearly profit 'materially below' its earlier forecast. [54]
    • UK brick sales fell 17% from a year before in July and August. [54]
    • Its shares fell as much as 13% on Monday. [54] Its market value has halved in a year, to 277 million pounds. [54]

    How it unfolded

    Britain's budget watchdog just cut its forecast of new homes by 2031 by 190,000. [54]

    Why it matters

    Fewer new homes means fewer bricks. [54] Housing Secretary Angela Rayner sees a 'slim chance' of 1.5 million new homes this parliament. [54]

    The truth

    • Ibstock blames Britain's government for delaying a scheme to help first-time buyers. [54]
21. 27

    Sweetgreen offers managers over $200,000

    What happened

    • Sweetgreen, a US salad chain, says its restaurant managers could earn over $200,000 a year from 2027. [55]
    • Base pay rises by up to 45% at busier restaurants. [55]
    • Managers also get a share of sales above target, and shares in the company. [55]

    How it unfolded

    Staff costs rose to 29% of revenue in the quarter to June, from 28%. [55]

    Why it matters

    Boss Jonathan Neman called the extra pay 'definitely a bet'. [55]

    How it works

    Labour economists call it an efficiency wage: paying more to keep and motivate better workers. [55]

    Sweetgreen bets better-paid managers stay longer and sell more. [55]

    Seen it before

    A team that pays its best player more hopes she stays and wins more matches.

    What comes next

    Sweetgreen reports its July-September results on 5 November. [55]

22. 28

    Taiwan's share boom makes start-ups a harder sell

    What happened

    • Taiwan's Taiex share index is up more than 50% this year, the best of the world's major indexes. [56]
    • About 7% of Taiwan's listed shares have doubled this year, against 3% in South Korea. [56]
    • The rally gives Taiwan's investors an easy alternative to betting on young start-ups. [56]
    • Operon Solutions raised its $700,000 first round mostly from Silicon Valley investors. [56]

    Why it matters

    'You can get 10X returns from the stock market,' said its founder, Anderson Chen. [56]

    How it works

    Investors call the return a new bet must beat its hurdle rate. [56]

    With chip shares up so much, a start-up must promise more to win the same money. [56]

    Seen it before

    If one stall gives free toppings, the stall next door must try harder to sell ice cream.

23. 29

    Markets wait on the US vote

    What happened

    • Asian shares moved lower early on Tuesday, ahead of the US midterm elections. [39]
    • The S&P 500 was higher a year after each of the 11 midterms from 1982 to 2022, CNBC found. [57]
    • Its average gain a year later was 13.7%. [57]

    Why it matters

    JPMorgan, a big US bank, said a Democratic sweep of Congress could spark a sell-off in AI shares. [9]

    The dollar found some support as a safe place during the vote, an OCBC strategist said. [11]

    The truth

    • Past years are no guide: the S&P 500 fell 22.1% in the year after the 2000 elections. [57]