Food & Farming · Tuesday, 1 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Robusta was called the coffee that could take a hotter world. The studies had counted farms that were being watered.

Food & Farming 1 min 44 sources

A new paper says robusta coffee's reputation for surviving climate change rests on research that treated irrigated plantations as good natural growing land. The same summer shows the pattern everywhere: British berries under drip lines came in 6% up, while Hungarian fish ponds dried out and killed 280 tonnes of fish.

more British berries picked so far this year than last, through five record heatwaves

two thirds of the crop is in, and blackcurrants are still expected down 10% [2]

280 tonnes

of fish killed as Hungary's ponds dried out

1,588 hectares of pond went dry at 20 farms, a loss Hungary's agriculture ministry puts at about $4.2m [3]

13%

rise in a Bloomberg index of ten farm products during August

sugar and cocoa are up about 20% too, as El Nino strengthens [7]

27%

of Arizona's Colorado River water, cut every year through 2028

the cut starts on 1 January, after seven states failed to agree a plan themselves [5]

The lead story — what happened

Robusta coffee's reputation as the bean that can survive climate change rests on studies that treated farms with irrigation as good natural growing land. [1]
Aaron Davis of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, in Britain, who led the new paper, calls the belief an "internet myth" that took hold about a decade ago. [1]
Robusta does handle heat better than arabica, the other main coffee. It does not handle drought. [1]
Most of the world's robusta comes from Vietnam and Brazil. The paper says those two, and India, lack the climate to grow it without irrigation. [1]
The paper was published last Thursday in the journal Sustainable Development, and says earlier assessments of robusta should be treated as provisional at best. [1]
Growers in some robusta regions already struggle to get the water the irrigation needs, the paper says. [1]
Britain shows the same swap. With two thirds of the harvest in, berry growers have picked 6% more than last year through five record heatwaves. Their trade body says the plastic tunnels and drip lines held the heat off the fruit. [2]
Where nobody was buying water, the same weather did the opposite. Hungary's agriculture ministry says 1,588 hectares of fish pond dried out, killing about 280 tonnes of fish at 20 farms. [3]
Hungarian operators drained one pond into another to keep some stock alive. About 99% of the country's land is under severe or extreme drought. [3]
Crop losses from Europe's heatwaves are projected to cost close to 2 billion euros, with almost no major crop untouched. [4]
Arizona's Colorado River water is cut 27% a year from 1 January. Its cities say taps will keep running, on wells, another river system and expensive treatment plants, and that the cost goes onto water bills. [5] The river serves 40 million people, and one town outside Phoenix has already capped growth and revived old wells. [6]
Prices moved underneath all of it. A Bloomberg index of ten farm products rose more than 13% in August, its steepest month since July 2012. [7][8]

Who is involved

Aaron Davis

a crop scientist at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, in Britain; he led the paper and called robusta's climate reputation an internet myth
Vietnam and Brazil

the two countries that supply most of the world's robusta; the paper says their growing areas depend on irrigation to stay profitable
British Berry Growers

the trade body for Britain's berry farms; it reported a crop 6% up on last year, grown under tunnels on drip irrigation
Hungary's Agriculture and Food Economy Ministry

the Hungarian department that counts the country's farm losses; it reported the pond deaths and the cost
The Central Arizona Project

the 336-mile canal that pumps Colorado River water to Phoenix and Tucson; its users take the new cuts

What is pushing on this

Heat and drought High↑

almost no major European crop was left untouched this summer [4]

Water you can buy Easing↓

growers in some robusta regions already struggle to get irrigation water [1]

Faith in the tough crop Easing↓

earlier assessments of robusta are now called provisional at best [1]

Farm prices Building↑

the ten-product index rose more than 13% in August [7]

How it unfolded

About a decade ago the belief that robusta is the climate-resilient coffee takes hold, on research the new paper says was flawed [1]
This summer Britain records five heatwaves and drought; berry growers under tunnels pick 6% more than last year [2]
Early August Hungarian fish farms drain one pond into another as 1,588 hectares of water go dry [3]
Last Thursday the robusta paper is published in the journal Sustainable Development [1]
Through August a ten-product farm price index rises more than 13%, its steepest month since July 2012 [7]
1 January Arizona's 27% annual cut to Colorado River water begins [5]

Where this points

Watch whether robusta planting keeps expanding in Brazil and Vietnam now that the resilience case is contested, and whether the irrigation water holds in the regions where growers already report shortages. [1]

The rest of the day

34 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Farm prices post their biggest month since 2012

A Bloomberg index tracking ten major farm products rose more than 13% in August, the steepest monthly gain since July 2012. Wheat drove much of it after attacks on Black Sea ports cut shipments, while sugar and cocoa each rose about 20%. [7]

Why it matters — It is the price side of the same weather and war the lead describes, arriving at the till a season later.
03
US famine alerts drop three countries, then return

The US government's Famine Early Warning Systems Network stopped publishing updates on Somalia after July, and dropped Somalia, Afghanistan and Yemen from a food-needs brief issued on 14 August. The US State Department told NPR on Monday that reporting resumes in September. [9]

Why it matters — The UN counts 6.5 million Somalis, 5 million Yemenis and 14 million Afghans facing acute hunger, and aid groups time shipments off those forecasts.
04
Australia lifts its wheat forecast 12%

Australia's agriculture department now expects a 2026/27 wheat crop of 29.9 million tonnes, about 12% above its June forecast and the eighth-biggest on record, after strong winter rains. [10]

Why it matters — It arrives just as attacks on Black Sea ports create extra demand for Australian grain.
05
South Africa's smallest wheat crop since 2019

South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee put this year's wheat harvest at 1.76 million tonnes in its first forecast, down 7.5% from 1.91 million last year. [11]

Why it matters — It is the committee's first forecast of the season, and it lands in the month wheat reached a three-year high. [7]
06
Kenya's corn forecast cut by half

The US agriculture department's Nairobi office cut its forecast for Kenya's 2026/27 corn crop by 51%, to 2.2 million tonnes, after a severe dry period in the middle of the year. [12]

Why it matters — Corn is Kenya's staple food, so the gap has to be filled by imports at this year's prices.
07
US corn condition stuck at a season low

The US agriculture department's crop report for the week to 30 August left corn condition flat at a season low. A week earlier 57% was good or excellent, against 69% at the same point last year. [13]

Why it matters — It is the last condition reading before harvest sets the size of the crop.
08
Traders ask whether corn reaches $6

A market adviser writing for the US trade title Successful Farming argued that this year's damage could push corn to $6 in September. It cited drought across the western Corn Belt, storm after storm in the east, and heat indexes above 100F in July. [14]

Why it matters — It is a forecast, not a fact, but it shows what the trade thinks the crop report will say.
09
India will import sugar after over-counting its crop

India now expects 30.6 million tonnes of sugar this season, 11% below the Indian government's earlier estimate of 34.3 million. It had already approved 2 million tonnes of exports, of which nearly 800,000 shipped before exports were halted in May. [15]

Why it matters — A kilo that cost 40 to 45 rupees in May and June was selling above 58 rupees in August, going into the festival and wedding season.
10
US declines to buy sugar off its own market

The US agriculture department's Commodity Credit Corporation said on 25 August it does not expect to buy and sell any sugar under the Feedstock Flexibility Program for crop year 2026. [16]

Why it matters — The programme exists to stop sugar processors handing their crop to the US government instead of repaying loans, so no action means no glut is expected.
11
Heat and floods hit China's corn and cotton

High temperatures and heavy rain have battered China's main corn, soybean and cotton regions since mid-July. Xinjiang, which grows more than 90% of China's cotton, faces lower yields from prolonged heat and little rain. [17]

Why it matters — The US government says China pledged $17bn a year of farm goods through 2028 excluding soybeans; the large non-soybean purchases have not come, and damaged crops at home could force them.
12
Canada's counter-tariffs land on 8 September

Canada will apply tariffs of 15% to 50% on about $20bn of US goods from 8 September, matching 50% US tariffs imposed after talks collapsed in mid-August. Its list covers dairy and farm equipment. [18]

Why it matters — Canada bought about $28bn of US farm products in 2025, and farm machinery is built from parts that cross the border.
13
Sulfur is pulling phosphate fertilizer up

Making a tonne of the common phosphate fertilizer DAP takes about 0.4 tonnes of sulfur, and sulfur prices have risen sharply. Sulfur comes mostly as a by-product of oil and gas production, and China makes nearly 23% of the world's supply. [19]

Why it matters — Farmers' 2027 fertilizer bills are already tracking the conflict in Iran. [19] Friday marked six months since the US and Israeli bombing that started it. [42]
14
First US phosphate plant in over 40 years proposed

The farm cooperative CHS and the fertilizer producer OCP North America are proposing a $450m phosphate plant at Waggaman, Louisiana, making more than a million tonnes a year. It would be the first of its kind built in the US in more than four decades. [20]

Why it matters — It answers a supply problem that is already here with capacity that takes years to arrive.
15
US farm machinery in its 36th weak month

The Creighton University farm equipment index fell to 22.2 in August from 27.8 in July, its 36th straight month below the level that marks growth. US tractor sales were 15,985 in July, down 10.9% on a year earlier. [21]

Why it matters — Machinery is the first thing a farm stops buying, so it reads the farm economy before the farm income figures do.
16
USDA offices running on skeleton staff

New York Times reporting says the US agriculture department's conservation service has lost more than 2,700 workers, close to a quarter of its staff. Some of the department's local offices now have nobody at all, and a Nebraska corn and soybean farmer described 50% staffing cuts at his. [22]

Why it matters — The loans, grants and technical help those offices hand out are what a farm in a bad year runs on.
17
US announces a package to rebuild the beef herd

US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a Ranchers First Initiative on Monday. It includes a new insurance endorsement that would pay a rancher the difference if a heifer kept back for breeding turns out to be worth more sold for meat. [23]

Why it matters — Rollins says the US cattle herd is at a 75-year low, and the only way to rebuild it is to not sell the animals that would rebuild it.
18
EPA weighs 34 refinery exemptions

The US Environmental Protection Agency is reviewing 34 requests from small refineries to be excused from blending ethanol into their fuel, and biofuel and farm groups objected this week. [24]

Why it matters — An exempted refinery blends less ethanol, which is corn demand removed. Corn futures fell overnight partly on the prospect. [25]
19
Bluetongue survived a British winter

Bluetongue, a midge-borne virus that cuts milk in cattle and lames sheep, has been confirmed on 684 farms in England, Wales and Scotland since July, with Devon and Cornwall holding almost two thirds. The Pirbright Institute says the strain likely carried over from one season to the next rather than blowing in again from France. [26]

Why it matters — A disease that had to be re-imported every year is now a resident one, which changes the control problem completely.
20
Bird flu kills a dolphin in South Australia

A dolphin that died in South Australia tested positive for H5 bird flu, the second native mammal species known to have caught it there. About 100 dead little penguins were found on King Island but were too decayed to test. [27]

Why it matters — The virus reached Australia only this year, and it is already moving out of birds into mammals.
21
US cyclospora cases pass 17,000

More than 17,000 confirmed cases of the parasite cyclospora were recorded in the US this summer, against 1,180 last summer, linked to lettuce from Taylor Farms. Heidi Overton, nominated to lead the US Food and Drug Administration, has no Senate hearing date set. [28]

Why it matters — The agency that would answer for it is being handed over in the middle of the outbreak.
22
A food-safety adviser says recalls are getting bigger

Darin Detwiler now advises governments and companies on food safety. His 16-month-old son died in the 1993 Jack in the Box E. coli outbreak in the US. He says his research shows the scale and severity of recalls increasing, and blames consolidation in food production. [29]

Why it matters — He also says there are now few reliable measures of US food safety, so the count of recalls is what people are left arguing over.
23
Salmonella outbreaks are not actually more frequent

It has felt like a bad year, but US Centers for Disease Control reporting shows the number of Salmonella outbreaks has stayed similar across the past five years, so far. Salmonella infects about 1.35 million people in the US each year. [30]

Why it matters — Both readings can be true at once: the same number of outbreaks a year, each one reaching further than it used to.
24
24,900 pounds of chicken recalled over missed inspection

Shanghai Ravioli Corporation of Boston recalled about 24,900 pounds of frozen buffalo chicken made between July 2025 and June 2026. The US food safety service says it carried a false inspection mark, for a plant with no federal grant of inspection, and went to catering kitchens in five states. [31]

Why it matters — No illness has been reported. The recall is because the stamp saying somebody had checked was not real.
25
Britain's snacks were rebuilt to a score that may change

A Ritz cracker now carries 80% less saturated fat than a few years ago. BelVita soft bakes cut sodium by 56% to fall outside Britain's less-healthy category, which decides where a food may be advertised. Mondelez has spent 40m pounds on reformulation work since 2020. [32]

Why it matters — Britain's government is now reviewing the scoring model itself, and the Food and Drink Federation estimates 80% of already-reformulated products could fail the new one.
26
Doctors' group sues over US dietary guidelines

The Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine is suing the US agriculture and health departments, alleging that a nine-member panel rewrote the guidance issued in January. It says eight of the nine had ties to industry bodies including the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and the National Dairy Council. [33]

Why it matters — The same group sued the same two departments in 2016, over cholesterol limits it says were dropped on egg-industry-funded research.
27
Sweeteners left marks two generations on in mice

Researchers in Chile split 47 mice into three groups, given plain water, water with sucralose, or water with stevia. Two further generations were bred that drank only plain water, and raised fasting blood sugar still turned up in some of the grandchildren. [34]

Why it matters — It is a mouse study at doses meant to resemble ordinary human intake, so it is a question raised rather than a finding about people.
28
Heat is making vegetables the wrong shape to sell

A potato grower near Yeovil in England says he faces 200,000 pounds of losses because this summer's heat left his crop bruised or stunted, and retailers will not buy produce that looks wrong. [35]

Why it matters — The appearance rules were written when supply was uniform, and they now destroy supply in the years it is not.
29
Bhutan hosts a first conscious food summit

Bhutan opened what it calls the first conscious food summit, with prime minister Tshering Tobgay arguing that changing food systems needs a change in values as well as in technology. [36]

Why it matters — It meets as the World Food Programme warns that 50 million people could be pushed close to starvation as a strong El Nino builds.
30
The Sundarbans is running out of fresh water

Researchers visiting the world's largest mangrove forest, in the delta where the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna meet, found a pond that had held fish for local families now cracked and empty. Salt is pushing into fields that used to give two rice harvests a year. [37]

Why it matters — Four million people live off that forest, and a pond that turns salty does not come back.
31
Indonesia's fuel and rice targets need up to 8.55m hectares

Meeting Indonesia's target of a 50% biodiesel blend by 2030 would need 4.85 to 8.55 million hectares of land converted, with up to 2.3 million more for rice self-sufficiency, and the two zones overlap. [38]

Why it matters — Two national food and energy goals are competing for the same ground, and the forest is what is between them.
32
Hormel cuts its sales forecast

Hormel Foods, the US packaged-meat company behind Spam and Jennie-O, cut its annual sales forecast on 27 August, blaming weak retail sales and poor demand for own-brand snack nuts. Its shares fell about 1% before the market opened. [39][43]

Why it matters — Farm prices are rising and shopper spending is not, and the squeeze lands on the companies in between.
33
A method to estimate crop yields months before harvest

Researchers publishing in Nature Food combined yield statistics with satellite and other geographic data to estimate major crop yields in every producing country. They tested the method against the pandemic, the Australian wildfires and the war in Ukraine. [40]

Why it matters — The paper says expectations of yields in the big producing countries shape export policy, and this method can sometimes work months before harvest.
34
A book traces food health claims to a 1980s cereal petition

Marion Nestle and Lisa Sutherland argue in a new book that health claims on food packets began when Kellogg petitioned the US Food and Drug Administration in the mid-1980s. An FDA analysis found All-Bran's market share rose 47% in the campaign's first six months. [41]

Why it matters — It is the origin of the claim printed on almost every box in the aisle.
35
Three US states forecast the worst corn yields

The US agriculture department's August estimates put Oklahoma, South Carolina and Colorado at the lowest corn yields in the country this year, with Oklahoma at 95 bushels an acre. [44]

Why it matters — National averages hide where the crop actually failed, and those are the farms that will not average out.

02 Lesson why it matters

The toughness was in the water, not the plant

Robusta was measured on farms that were being irrigated, so the drought it cannot survive never showed up in its score.

The twist

Measured with the hose running, a plant scores as drought-hardy, so the number that reassured the whole coffee trade was really a number about who could afford to buy water.

How it works

Robusta takes heat better than arabica
So growers plant it where water can be pumped
Studies score those farms as good natural land
The plant's drought weakness never gets tested
The score becomes the plan for a drier world

Where you've seen this

Medicine

a treatment trialled in hospitals with the best nursing looks stronger than it is on an ordinary ward

Schools

a teaching method tested where classes also got smaller takes the credit for both changes

Car fuel figures

mileage measured on a smooth track at a steady speed is not the mileage you get

Flood walls

a wall that has never met a big flood counts as proven, because nothing has happened yet

The catch

Irrigation is not a trick and it often keeps working, so the finding is not that robusta is weak. It is that nobody has yet measured it without the water.

And the whole of it

Everyone in this chain read the same number honestly: the scientist who published it, the trader who planned around it, the farmer choosing what to plant. Most of what any of us calls a proven thing was tested somewhere, under conditions we never saw and could not have asked about.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

A claim everybody in the coffee trade wanted to be true was carried for a decade on studies that could not have shown it, because the farms they measured were having water pumped onto them.

Why it works on us — It offered a fix that required nothing to change - one bean swapped for another, no growers moved, no water problem to solve.

Who gains

Australian wheat growers — Their crop forecast rose 12% to 29.9 million tonnes in the same month attacks on Black Sea ports cut a rival supply and lifted grain prices. [10][7]
British berry growers — Tunnels and drip lines held the heat off a crop that came in 6% up, in a summer that made open-field vegetables the wrong shape to sell. [2][35]
CHS and OCP North America — Their proposed $450m Louisiana phosphate plant is announced while conflict has thinned the flow of foreign crop nutrients and sulfur is pushing phosphate prices up. [20][19]
Well drillers and water treatment suppliers around Phoenix — Arizona cities are covering a 27% river cut with groundwater, another river system and expensive plants, and the cost goes onto water bills. [5]
US ranchers holding heifers back — A new federal insurance endorsement would pay them the difference if the animal they kept for breeding is worth more sold for meat. [23]

Who pays

Robusta growers in dry regions — The paper says some already face serious problems getting irrigation water, and that irrigation is what their profitability rests on. [1]
Hungarian fish farmers — 1,588 hectares of pond dried out, killing about 280 tonnes of fish at 20 farms, a loss Hungary's agriculture ministry puts at about $4.2m. [3]
People facing hunger in Somalia, Afghanistan and Yemen — Aid groups position food using the US famine forecasts, which went dark for those three countries through August. [9]
Indian sugar buyers — A kilo that cost 40 to 45 rupees in early summer sold above 58 rupees in August, going into the busiest sweets season of the year. [15]
English vegetable growers — One potato grower near Yeovil says heat left him facing 200,000 pounds of losses on a crop retailers will not take. [35]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

How much of the world's robusta would fail without irrigation.

The paper says earlier suitability maps counted irrigated farms as naturally suitable, but it does not publish a figure for how much land that is. [1]
02

How many people in Somalia, Afghanistan and Yemen went uncounted while the US famine reports were paused.

Updates on Somalia stopped after July, and all three countries were dropped from a brief issued on 14 August. The US State Department says reporting resumes in September and has published nothing covering the gap. [9]
03

What India's sugar crop really is.

India's government first put it at 34.3 million tonnes and now at 30.6 million, and it approved 2 million tonnes of exports on the higher figure before halting them in May. [15]
04

Whether US food-safety risk is actually rising.

A food-safety adviser says the scale and severity of recalls is increasing, while US disease-control counts show the number of Salmonella outbreaks similar across five years. Both readings come from the same year. [29][30]
05

Whether Britain's tougher food-scoring model will be adopted.

Britain's government is still consulting on it, and the Food and Drink Federation estimates 80% of already-reformulated products would fail it, particularly on sugar. [32]
06

How much of Europe's fish-farm loss is permanent.

Hungarian producers say replacing lost stock could take years, and no country in the region has published a total. [3]
07

Whether China will buy the US farm goods it promised.

It pledged $17bn a year through 2028 excluding soybeans and has not made the large non-soybean purchases; traders say weather damage at home could change that. [17]
08

What the sweetener result means for people.

The work was done in 47 mice at doses meant to resemble ordinary human intake, and effects in later generations of mice have not been shown in humans. [34]

04 Hope carry this

A Somali family driven off their farm by drought reached a camp in June carrying an 11-month-old girl close to death. Six weeks of treatment brought her back.