Food & Farming · Sunday, 4 October 2026
Brazil votes on Sunday in a near-tie between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro. The winner sets the rules on clearing the Amazon for cattle and soy
Brazil picks a president on 4 October, with Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro both near 40%. Amazon clearing fell 45% under Lula; his rival promises fewer rules for farmers. Also today: China's 55% tax on Brazilian beef begins, wet cane holds back Brazil's sugar, US farm costs outrun farm prices, and England lets farmers refill reservoirs in a drought.
about 40%
of voters back each of Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in the polls
about 9% were undecided or planned not to cast a valid vote at the end of September
-45%
change in Amazon clearing since Lula took office in 2023
it is at its lowest level in more than a decade
80%
of their native plants is what Amazon landowners must keep
a 2019 bill to scrap the rule was dropped after farm exporters objected
The lead story — what happened
-
Brazil chooses its president on Sunday 4 October, and almost 159 million people can vote.
[2] -
The front-runners are President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, on the left, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, on the right.
[2] -
Flavio is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president now serving a 27-year sentence for a failed coup plot.
[4] -
Polls put both men at about 40%, with Lula slightly ahead, so a run-off on 25 October is likely.
[3] -
Brazil holds about 60% of the Amazon, the world's largest rainforest.
[1] -
Clearing of the Amazon rose about 60% under Jair Bolsonaro, from 2019 to 2022, and more than 45,000 square kilometres were cut.
[1] -
Under Lula it has fallen 45%, to its lowest level in more than a decade.
[1] -
Flavio Bolsonaro promises to end illegal clearing by 2029.
[1] Lula aims for zero net clearing by 2030, so any forest cut would have to be grown back elsewhere.[1] -
Experts warn he could keep that promise while making more clearing legal.
[1] At a rally in June he promised easier licences for farming, cattle ranching and mining.[1] -
He has courted farmers and says he will cut rules to get the state off farmers' backs.
[3] -
In 2019 Flavio Bolsonaro co-sponsored a bill to end the rule that Amazon landowners keep 80% of their native plants.
[1] Farm business leaders opposed it, fearing buyers abroad would turn away from Brazilian soy and beef, and it was dropped.[1] -
Brazil also elects all 513 members of its lower house and 54 of its 81 senators.
[2] Farm business holds much sway in that Congress.[1]
Who is involved
-
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
Brazil's president, 80, on the left; seeking a fourth term, and his government cut Amazon clearing
-
Flavio Bolsonaro
a senator, 45, on the right and son of Jair Bolsonaro; promises fewer rules for farmers
-
Tereza Cristina
a senator and a leading voice of Brazil's farm business; her party stopped her becoming Bolsonaro's running mate
-
Brazil's farm caucus
the farm-business group in Brazil's Congress; it backs a bill to weaken fines for clearing seen by satellite
How it unfolded
-
2019-22 Amazon clearing rises about 60% under Jair Bolsonaro
[1] -
2022 Lula beats Jair Bolsonaro by just under 2 points
[2] -
2023 Lula restores fines for clearing seen only by satellite
[1] -
4 Oct First round of voting
[2] -
25 Oct Run-off, if nobody wins more than 50% of the valid votes
[5]
Where this points
Brazil counts its electronic votes within hours, so Sunday night shows whether there is a run-off.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
Parts of Brazil's sugar-growing region had their wettest winter in more than 100 years, so the cane holds less sugar.
Diesel in four US Midwest states cost more than $3 a gallon above a year ago in September, as the harvest began.
Brazil's big soy and beef exporters defend the rule that Amazon landowners keep 80% of their forest, because buyers abroad avoid cleared land.
China began charging an extra 55% on Brazilian beef above Brazil's yearly allowance on 1 October.
The rest of the day
11 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
-
02
China's 55% beef tax hits Brazil
From 1 October, China charges an extra 55% tariff on Brazilian beef, on top of its usual rate, its commerce ministry said.
[7] In January China gave each big supplier a yearly allowance and set the 55% charge on beef above it.[7] Brazil's allowance was 1.1 million tonnes, and China is the biggest buyer of its beef.[7] Brazil asked to use Uruguay's unused allowance, but industry insiders say China has not agreed.[7] Why it matters — Abiec, the group for Brazil's beef exporters, expects Brazil's beef exports to fall 10% this year.
[7] Whoever wins Sunday's vote inherits the wait to see whether China renews the allowances for 2027.[7] -
03
Wet cane holds back Brazil's sugar
Brazil's sugar mills will let the weather, not the price, decide how much sugar they make until the harvest ends in December, analysts told Reuters.
[8] Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer, and its mills can turn cane into sugar or into ethanol, a fuel.[8] Sugar prices rose more than 21% in August, and sugar now pays about 20% more than ethanol.[8] But parts of the sugar belt had the wettest winter in more than 100 years, and wet cane holds less sugar.[8] Why it matters — Each extra percentage point of cane sent to sugar adds about 750,000 tonnes to world supply, so buyers everywhere watch the choice.
[8] StoneX, a broker, now expects Brazil's main region to make no more than 38 million tonnes, below the 40 million first expected.[8] -
04
US corn stores 35% fuller than last year
The US held 2.10 billion bushels of last year's corn on 1 September, 35% more than a year earlier, the US agriculture department's statistics service said on 30 September.
[9] Corn stored off farms rose 44%.[9] Stored soybeans were down 3%.[9] All wheat in store fell 14%, and wheat held on farms fell 21%.[9] Corn35%Soybeans−3%All wheat−14%Change in US grain held in store on 1 September, against a year earlier. Why it matters — The count lands as US Midwest farmers start harvesting an estimated 20 billion bushels of corn and soybeans by the end of November.
[11] So the new corn arrives on top of a bigger pile of old corn, while wheat is the crop in shorter supply.[9] -
05
US farm costs rise as farm prices fall
In August, US farmers were paid 2.0% less for what they sold than a year earlier, the statistics service said on 29 September.
[10] What they paid for supplies, interest, taxes and wages was 5.3% higher.[10] From July to August, diesel, hay and animal feed got dearer, while nitrogen fertiliser and young cattle got cheaper.[10] The ratio between the two measures fell to 85, from 91 a year before.[10] -2.0%Prices farmers got+5.3%Prices farmers paidChange from August 2025 to August 2026. What farmers earned fell while what they spent rose, so the gap between the two widened. Why it matters — Livestock prices were 8.5% lower than a year ago, while crop prices were 6.2% higher.
[10] So the fall in income lands on cattle, pig and dairy farms more than on grain farms.[10] -
06
Midwest diesel jumps as the harvest starts
In September, four of the five US states where diesel rose most were in the Midwest: Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana.
[11] There it cost more than $3 a gallon above a year ago.[11] A flood and a power cut shut ExxonMobil's refinery at Joliet, Illinois, for over a week.[11] A six-month union dispute also continues at BP's Whiting refinery in Indiana.[11] The Midwest has few refineries and cannot easily bring in fuel by tanker, so it struggles to replace what is lost.[11] Why it matters — Estimates say the dearer fuel adds about $12,500 to the cost of harvesting every 1,000 acres.
[11] Joe Hamilton, who farms 2,500 acres in Indiana, expects to burn about 9,000 gallons of diesel in this harvest.[11] -
07
England lets farmers refill reservoirs in October
England's Environment Agency, which licenses who may take water from rivers, will let farmers with winter licences refill their reservoirs from 1 to 31 October.
[12] Reservoirs in England are usually about 74% full now, but Ardingly in West Sussex is at 23% and Wimbleball in Somerset at 21%.[12] September brought 65% of the usual rain.[12] The window does not cover the main salmon rivers or places where spray irrigation is already restricted.[12] Why it matters — Anglian Water, which supplies about seven million people in the East of England, warned on 2 October that the drought could last into 2027.
[13] Its Grafham Water reservoir is 60% full, and some rivers it pumps from are too low to use.[13] -
08
MPs survey farmers after a fund shut in hours
A committee of British MPs has opened a survey of farmers about the Sustainable Farming Incentive, England's scheme that pays farmers for work such as caring for hedges and soil.
[14] Its second round of applications closed in less than six hours, on a first come, first served basis.[14] About 12,200 applications went in, worth about 20,700 pounds each on average, from a pot of 253 million pounds.[14] The survey closes on 16 October.[14] Why it matters — About 21,300 farm businesses have nature agreements ending by February 2027, but only about 8,800 of them applied, the consultancy GSC Grays says.
[14] It warns that land now kept for wildlife and soil could go back to more intensive farming.[14] -
09
A flat fee threatens farmers' clean-water credits
England's first Environmental Delivery Plan, proposed for Norfolk, would let house builders pay a flat fee instead of offsetting the water pollution new homes add.
[15] Natural England, the English government's nature agency, would charge about 2,675 pounds a home and spend the money on conservation.[15] Today builders mostly buy credits from farmers, who change how they use land so less nitrate and phosphate reach rivers.[15] 2,675 poundsNatural England's fee3,500-9,000 poundsFarmers' creditsThe cost per new home of meeting the water pollution rule, two ways. Natural England's flat fee is below the lowest price farmers' credits sell for. Why it matters — The Environmental Farmers Group, which has more than 650 farmers, says private credits cost 3,500 to 9,000 pounds a home, so the fee could undercut them.
[15] The head of the ecologists' professional body says only about a third of the plan's measures directly cut pollution.[15] -
10
US ocean monitors go back into the sea
A 238-foot ship set sail on Saturday to put back the first of a network of deep-sea monitors that the US government had begun removing.
[16] The 368 million dollar network of about 900 instruments sat off Oregon, Washington, Alaska and North Carolina, and between Greenland and Iceland.[16] Its data serves weather forecasters, climate scientists and the fishing industry.[16] The National Science Foundation began taking it out in late 2025, though it was built to run 15 more years.[16] Why it matters — Scientists, fishermen and Congress all pushed back, and Congress forced the restoration.
[16] The data matters more as a powerful El Nino, a warming of the Pacific that shifts weather, builds and affects fisheries.[16] -
11
The FAO asks for money for dryland forests
The FAO, the UN's food and farming agency, launched a call to action on dryland forests during World Forest Week in Rome.
[17] Forests and trees in dry regions support the food and income of more than two billion people, it says.[17] Drylands cover about 41% of Earth's land and hold 27% of its forests.[17] About a quarter of dryland forest is already damaged, mostly as land is turned into farms and towns or over-used.[17] Why it matters — These trees feed herders' animals and give the poorest families fuel, wild food and income when crops fail.
[17] The FAO proposes a new support scheme to help countries find long-term money and plan for these forests.[17] -
12
Atmonia plans fertiliser made on the farm
Atmonia, an Icelandic company, is scaling up a way to make ammonia, which farms use as nitrogen fertiliser, from nitrogen and water in one step.
[18] The usual method first makes hydrogen and runs in huge plants that give off a lot of carbon.[18] Atmonia aims for a unit the size of a shipping container that makes about 150 tonnes of ammonia a year.[18] Its catalysts are made of common materials, its chief executive says.[18] Why it matters — The company wants to sell to a small-scale market that brings fertiliser making to the farmer.
[18] Its process has not yet been run at this size, and the next step is a cell 40 times larger.[18]
Why a higher price does not always bring more sugar
A higher price brings more sugar, water or diesel only when the missing thing is for sale, and dry fields, full rivers and a sea port are not.
The twist
A higher price brings more of something only if what is missing can be bought, and the weather cannot be bought.
The picture
How it works
- Something runs short, and its price goes up
- Usually a higher price brings more: mills switch, traders ship more in
- But sometimes the missing piece cannot be bought: sugar in wet cane, water in a low river, a way to ship fuel in
- Then the supply stays low and the price stays high
- It eases only when the weather turns or something new is built
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
-
Wet cane holds back Brazil's sugar
Sugar pays about 20% more than ethanol, but wet cane holds too little sugar, so the mills keep making ethanol.
-
Midwest diesel jumps as the harvest starts
Diesel costs $3 a gallon more, but the Midwest cannot easily bring fuel in by tanker, so extra fuel cannot be shipped in quickly.
-
England lets farmers refill reservoirs in October
Farmers may now fill reservoirs in October, but only where rivers still run, and Anglian Water cannot take water from some of its low rivers.
Where you've seen this
A sold-out concert
a higher ticket price cannot add seats to the hall
Fishing
a higher fish price sends more boats after the same fish, but it cannot put more fish in the sea
Ski resorts
snow machines only work on nights cold enough to freeze the water
The catch
Over years, a high price can pay for the missing piece, such as the two new reservoirs Anglian Water plans.
And the whole of it
A sugar buyer waits for Brazil's cane fields to dry out. A farmer in Indiana waits on two refineries in Illinois and Indiana, and a family under a hosepipe ban in eastern England waits on a wet winter. Each of them sees only their own bill.
What is really going on
Brazil's vote on Sunday decides who enforces the rules on clearing the Amazon. Brazil's big soy and beef exporters have defended those rules, because buyers abroad are wary of food from cleared land.
Why it works on us — A promise to end illegal clearing sounds strict. But a Brazilian president who makes it also helps write the law that decides which clearing is illegal.
Who gains
-
Brazil's big soy and beef exporters
— Strict rules on clearing protect their standing with buyers abroad, which is why they helped stop a 2019 bill to scrap the 80% rule.
[1] -
House builders in Norfolk
— The proposed flat fee is about 2,675 pounds a home.
[15] Farmers' pollution credits sell for 3,500 to 9,000 pounds a home.[15] -
Ethanol buyers in Brazil
— Wet cane is better suited to ethanol, so mills keep sending more cane to the fuel even though sugar pays more.
[8] -
Fishing fleets and weather forecasters
— The deep-sea monitors that feed them data on currents and the coming El Nino are going back into the Pacific.
[16] -
Farmers in England with winter water licences
— They may refill their reservoirs throughout October, outside their usual season.
[12]
Who pays
-
Brazil's beef exporters
— Beef sent to China above Brazil's allowance now pays an extra 55%, and Brazil's beef exports are expected to fall 10% this year.
[7] -
US livestock farmers
— Livestock prices were 8.5% lower in August than a year earlier, while the costs of running a farm were 5.3% higher.
[10] -
Corn and soybean farmers in the US Midwest
— Dearer diesel adds about 12,500 dollars to the cost of harvesting every 1,000 acres, as two refineries in the region are disrupted.
[11] -
Farmers who sell clean-water credits in England
— A flat government fee could undercut the private credits they built, the Environmental Farmers Group says.
[15] -
English farms whose nature agreements are ending
— About 12,500 of them did not apply before the scheme shut, so their payments for wildlife and soil work end when those agreements run out.
[14] -
Sugar buyers
— Sugar rose more than 21% in August.
[8] Brazil's mills cannot send more cane to sugar while it is this wet, so no extra sugar arrives to bring it down.[8]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
-
01
Who wins, and whether there is a run-off.
Polls put both men near 40%, and about 9% of voters were undecided or not planning a valid vote at the end of September.
[3] Polls survey a few thousand people out of almost 160 million voters.[3] -
02
Whether Flavio Bolsonaro would keep fines for clearing seen only by satellite.
Lula restored the fines in 2023, and the farm caucus backs a bill to weaken them.
[1] Bolsonaro did not say whether he would keep them.[1] -
03
Whether China renews its beef allowances for 2027.
Industry insiders say China has not agreed to let Brazil use Uruguay's unused share, and China's commerce ministry has not commented on Brazil's requests.
[7] -
04
How much sugar Brazil's main region will make this season.
StoneX now sees no more than 38 million tonnes, below the 40 million expected at the start, and more rain is forecast.
[8] -
05
How long England's drought lasts.
Anglian Water says it is hard to tell, and that it may run into next year.
[13] Its Grafham Water reservoir is 60% full.[13] -
06
What replaces first come, first served in England's farm nature scheme.
Defra, England's farm ministry, says it is exploring other ways to run the scheme in 2027, but has not said which.
[14] -
07
Whether the flat fee in Norfolk pays for enough to stop the pollution.
A planning lawyer says Natural England must budget accurately or the plan could run short of money.
[15] Ecologists say only about a third of its measures directly cut pollution.[15] -
08
How long US diesel stays this dear.
The US emergency oil store is at its lowest in 43 years, and a lecturer quoted by the Guardian says refilling it will slow any fall in prices.
[11]
Satellite data show that the area of the Amazon cleared in the first half of 2026 was the smallest in ten years.
Also true today
- A ship set sail on Saturday to put back deep-sea monitors off the US Pacific coast, after scientists, fishermen and Congress fought the US government's plan to remove them.
- Farmers in England with winter water licences may refill their reservoirs throughout October, and applying for a longer licence no longer needs long environmental and economic reports.
More from Food & Farming
Across the beats