Daylila

Gaming · Monday, 20 July 2026

01 · Briefing · what happened

An indie developer posted a clip of her game idea. The AI clones beat her to the store.

Gaming 6 min 80 sources

Copying a game used to take months, and that delay was the only thing protecting a small studio's idea. AI coding tools cut it to about a day — plus the biggest pre-order week anyone has measured, and an offline mode that needed the internet.

Key takeaways

  • Game mechanics were never protected by copyright — what protected them was the months it took to copy one, and AI tools have cut that to about a day.
  • GTA 6's headline $260 million pre-order figure is an analyst's model scaled from regional data, not a reported sales number.
  • An Assassin's Creed offline mode failed during a one-hour server outage, because it needed the server's permission to run offline.

The clone arrives before the game does

Earlier this year the developer Freya Holmér posted a 50-second clip of a prototype: Tetris, but the board rotates as you stack blocks. It went round social media. Within days, someone had built a version of it using AI coding tools, and more clones followed into app stores [11].

One of them, called Rotris, came from Charlie Greenman, who told 404 Media it took a few prompts and about a day of work. He was blunt about it: “I really can care less about the game” [11].

The mechanism here is worth being precise about, because it is not really about theft. Game mechanics — the rules of how a game works — have never been protected by copyright. Only the specific expression is: the art, the code someone actually wrote, the music. Rotating Tetris was legally free to copy on the day it was posted, and on every day before that.

What protected it was time. Turning a clever idea into a shipped, playable game used to take a single developer weeks or months. That gap was the window in which the original could finish and launch first. AI tools compress the gap to roughly a day, and the window closes.

The effect on the people making games is immediate. One developer told 404 Media she now feels “this anxiety anytime you post anything” [11] — which is a change in behaviour, not just a change in mood. Showing work early is how small studios build an audience before launch. If showing work is what gets you cloned, the cheapest marketing available to a one-person studio stops being safe to use.

This sits inside a broader shift. GDC’s 2025 State of the Game Industry survey found more than half of surveyed developers work at companies using AI tools [12]. In the same week, Netflix told shareholders it used generative AI in roughly 300 shows and films so far in 2026, mostly in post-production [19]. The tools deliver output “more quickly and at a lower cost than traditional methods,” the company said [19].

The biggest number in games this week is an estimate

Grand Theft Auto 6 opened pre-orders on 25 June. The analytics firm Newzoo puts the first week at roughly $260 million in global digital spending — the largest opening it has observed [13].

Read the construction of that figure carefully, because it is a model, not a receipt. Newzoo measured about $180 million across the US and the five biggest European markets. It then scaled that up, on the basis that roughly 69% of GTA 5’s lifetime console players sat in those six markets [14]. From there it projects $3.25 billion to $5.2 billion in launch-week revenue when the game ships in November. That is up to 51 million copies at an assumed $88 average price [14][17].

Newzoo’s Ronan Patrick was unusually direct about what the number is not. Social media claims that the game had done a billion dollars in pre-orders, he said, are “absurd” — nothing has ever done that 21 weeks out [17]. For scale, GTA 5 took three days to reach $1 billion in 2013 [14].

The projection matters to studios that have nothing to do with Rockstar, because a release that large bends other people’s schedules. The lead on Modern Warfare 4 was asked about launching near what PC Gamer called “the GTA 6 black hole.” He shrugged it off: “It’s a little head-to-head, that’s great” [74]. Not everyone can afford that posture.

An offline mode that needed the internet

On Saturday 11 July, Ubisoft Connect went down for about an hour. Players found they could not launch Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced — including in its offline mode [25][56].

Ubisoft games require a one-time internet check to authenticate a copy, after which you should be able to play without a connection. The offline mode existed. It was advertised. It had simply never been tested against the one situation it is for. When that situation arrived, it turned out the offline mode needed the server’s permission to go offline [25].

The commercial picture around the game is otherwise strong. It sold 2 million copies on launch day and posted the best Steam launch of any Assassin’s Creed game. Alinea Analytics counted 701,000 copies on Steam as of 13 July [21]. The much-criticised day-one add-on content accounted for less than 3% of initial Steam sales — about $1 million [30]. Ubisoft laid off developers who worked on the game regardless, and staff at Ubisoft Barcelona went on strike this month [21].

The ownership question sits next to this one. Sony plans to retire PlayStation discs from the start of 2028. The UK’s Entertainment Retailers Association hit back. Its chief executive, Kim Bayley, called the move “a triumph of corporate convenience over consumer choice,” noting that millions still buy games physically each year [66].

Ubisoft stops betting on launches

Ubisoft’s 2025/26 annual report describes a pivot to a “more selective model” [27]. It will lean on its back catalogue and live-service games rather than depend on individual launches to carry a year. A live-service game keeps selling things to the same players for years, instead of once.

The report is candid about why. Releasing a game early, or into a crowded window against a major competitor, “can significantly limit its commercial impact” [27]. There is also a small piece of language worth noticing. Last year’s report listed “overpricing” as a business risk; this year it reads “a pricing strategy that may or may not devalue the content” [27].

Elsewhere in the technology stack, a report contradicted Microsoft’s statements that id Software has not been moved off its in-house id Tech engine onto Unreal [44]. One source suggested the engine is “most likely going to end up in the trash can” [44]. An id producer, speaking after the Xbox layoffs, was gloomier still about what the current industry can support: “you’ll never get another WoW or Morrowind in the current climate” [68].

Quietly, in the background

Three smaller things worth carrying. Scopely confirmed Looney Tunes: World of Mayhem goes offline in October, another mobile live-service game reaching the point where it no longer covers its own costs [32]. Riot is running League of Legends Classic from 29 July, rewinding the game to its season-three era — a publisher treating its own past as a product [51]. And GOG’s preservation programme shipped a small remaster of Thief, ahead of the full Nightdive version [26]. It is one of the few structured efforts keeping old PC games running at all.

The money is still moving, too. Games mergers and acquisitions hit $2.3 billion across 54 transactions in the second quarter — the highest since 2022, per Aream & Co [4]. Netflix said part of its games business is up 600%, while adding “we’re just getting started here,” which is the kind of percentage that usually means a small base [37]. And in Istanbul, the mobile studio Grand Games raised $30 million after its debut titles took more than $4 million in gross in-app revenue in under three months [9].

02 · Lesson · why it matters

What was actually holding the door

The rule everyone trusted was never doing the work — a difficulty was doing it quietly, and the difficulty just got cheap.

A day’s work

Freya Holmér posted fifty seconds of a prototype. Tetris, but the board turns as you stack. Within days there was a copy, then more of them. One took a few prompts and about a day.

Most people watching read this as theft. That reaction is worth slowing down on, because nothing illegal happened.

The rule everyone assumed was working

Copyright does not cover game mechanics. It covers expression — the art someone drew, the code someone typed, the music someone wrote. The rules of how a game works have always been free to copy.

Every developer knows this. It is not a loophole. It is the foundation the whole medium is built on. Platformers, deckbuilders, battle royales — the form moves forward by people taking a mechanic and doing something else with it.

So Holmér’s idea was unprotected the moment she posted it. It had been unprotected every year before that, too. Nothing about the law changed this year.

What changed was how long a copy takes.

The thing that was actually doing the work

For thirty years, the distance between an idea and a game someone can play was labour. Weeks at minimum, usually months. Somebody had to design it, build it, fix it, ship it.

That distance was the protection. It was not written down. Nobody voted for it. It simply meant that when you showed people your idea, you had a head start measured in months, and you could use it to finish first.

Cut copying to a day and the head start is gone. The rule sits exactly where it always sat. The protection does not.

This is the part that travels. A rule that has never been tested looks identical to a rule that works. You find out which one you were holding on the day something removes the difficulty that had been standing in for it.

Nobody chose this

It is tempting to look for whoever decided small developers should be exposed. There isn’t one.

The line between an unprotected idea and protected expression was drawn when turning an idea into a product was the expensive part. That was true for a very long time, and the arrangement built on it did real good. It is why games can borrow from each other at all, why a genre can exist.

It also always suited the largest companies. A big publisher could copy a small studio’s mechanic and outspend it on marketing. That was legal, and it happened. The arrangement served the people who benefited most from it and genuinely helped everyone underneath it. Both are true, and neither cancels the other.

What has happened now is that the same arrangement, unchanged, produces a different result — because one of its unstated assumptions stopped holding.

The offline mode that needed permission

The same shape turned up this week in a much smaller story.

Ubisoft’s servers went down for about an hour on a Saturday. People who owned Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced could not play it, including in the offline mode the game advertises.

The offline mode was real. It was built, documented, sold. It had simply never been used on a day when the servers were down — which is the only day it is for. When that day came, it turned out the offline mode had to ask a server for permission to work offline.

Nobody lied. Nobody had tested it either. It looked like a working protection for exactly as long as nothing pushed on it.

Where you are standing

This is not a story about developers.

A shelf of game discs is protected by the plastic, not by a right to keep what you bought. That is why a platform can retire discs and there is nothing to appeal to. A live-service game you have spent years and money inside runs for as long as it covers its server bill. The money you put in was never a claim on it existing tomorrow. The engineers who spent careers on an in-house engine were protected by being the only people who could run it, until a decision upstream standardised on someone else’s.

And the flood of clones is not something happening at a distance. It lands in the store you browse, between you and the game you were looking for.

What no seat can see

The hard part is that none of this can be audited from the inside. A protection that holds and a protection that has never been pushed give off the same signal, right up until the moment they don’t.

Holmér, the players locked out on a Saturday, the engine team, the person with a shelf of discs — none of them were careless. They were relying on things that had worked for as long as anyone had been watching, and had no way to tell the difference.

Somewhere in what each of us counts as safe, there is a difficulty doing work we have credited to a rule. We find out which, the same way they did, at whatever hour it stops being difficult.

03 · Lab · your turn

Name the Guard

Rehearse telling a rule that protects you from a difficulty that was quietly doing the job instead.

04 · Hope · carry this

The openness that let a clone appear in a day is the same one that built games in the first place. A protection you have just found was never holding is one you can finally build for real.

Across the beats