Mind & Body · Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Flu is rising about a month early in the US West, with a changed strain, and experts disagree on whether the season is unusual
Flu tests and emergency visits have climbed since early September in California, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska, and Seattle doctors see a mutated strain. Others call it a normal start, and the US disease agency has said little.
1 month
earlier than usual, flu began rising in the US West
positive tests have climbed since early September
27%
fewer confirmed flu cases with the new mRNA shot than a standard one, in adults aged 50 to 64
side effects were more common with it, but most were mild and lasted a day or two
about 30%
lower risk of a flu hospital stay for vaccinated US adults last winter
the strain had changed after the shot was chosen
up to 650,000
people die of flu-related lung illness each year worldwide
the WHO estimates 290,000 to 650,000, out of about a billion cases a year
The lead story — what happened
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Flu began rising about a month early this autumn in the US West, in California, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska, rather than in the South, where US seasons usually start.
[1] -
The share of people testing positive has climbed since early September, and flu visits to emergency rooms have crept up for weeks, says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.
[1] -
At the University of Washington in Seattle, doctors are seeing as much flu now as they usually see around Christmas, says Alex Greninger, who runs infection testing there.
[1] -
Much of that flu is a new variant with a mutation that seems to help it slip past the body's defences, Greninger says.
[1] -
Not every expert calls this unusual. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota calls it a pretty normal flu year so far, and national CDC data still show little flu across most of the country.
[2] -
Flu changes a little all the time, and the body's antibodies, built from earlier infections and shots, fit each changed version less well.
[4] [5] -
Last winter a changed H3N2 strain called subclade K, first seen in August 2025, started seasons early in Japan, Hong Kong and the UK.
[3] [4] Europe's season began about four weeks early, and adults aged 65 and over were most of those sick enough for hospital.[5] -
That strain arrived after the year's vaccine had been chosen. In the US the shot still cut the risk of a flu hospital stay by 41% in children and about 30% in adults.
[4] [6] -
For this winter the WHO updated the shots in February to newer strains, including a new H3N2.
[3] [10] US vaccines follow a choice an FDA panel made in March.[11] -
In August the FDA, the US medicines regulator, approved Moderna's mFLUSIVA, the first flu vaccine made with mRNA, for people aged 50 and over.
[7] [8] In adults aged 50 to 64 it cut confirmed flu by 27% against a standard shot.[7] -
An mRNA shot can be made faster than vaccines grown in eggs, so its strains could be picked closer to the season, after a surprise variant has shown itself.
[7] [8] In an April 2025 poll, most Americans over 50 said they did not know if mRNA vaccines are safe.[9] -
The CDC, the US national disease agency, has not been promoting flu shots as it usually does, under health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time vaccine critic.
[1] The CDC says it is preparing messages on the benefits and risks of a shot.[1]
Who is involved
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Caitlin Rivers
an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University who tracks how diseases spread; she says flu has come early
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Alex Greninger
head of infection testing at the University of Washington in Seattle; his labs see Christmas levels of flu now
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Michael Osterholm
head of an infectious disease centre at the University of Minnesota; he calls it a normal start so far
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The CDC
the US national disease agency, run under health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; it has not been promoting flu shots
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Moderna
a US drug company; it makes mFLUSIVA, the first approved mRNA flu vaccine
How it unfolded
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Aug 2025 A changed H3N2 flu strain, subclade K, appears and spreads around the world
[3] -
Dec 2025 Europe's flu season starts about four weeks early
[5] -
Feb 2026 The WHO picks the strains for this winter's flu shots
[3] -
5 Aug 2026 The FDA approves Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine for people 50 and over
[7] -
Sept 2026 Positive flu tests start climbing in the US West
[1] -
6 Oct Experts disagree on whether the early start is unusual
[1] [2]
Where this points
Watch whether flu starts rising outside the West in the CDC's weekly counts; that would turn an early start in a few states into an early season for the whole country.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
Russia has said little about why a worker at a plague laboratory in Siberia died, and the WHO's chief asked it for complete information.
A Kenyan man with Ebola travelled from Congo by road and plane to Nairobi, Kenya's capital, and died there.
Clips that read blood oxygen through a finger drifted from reading too high to too low over five years at one US hospital.
US hospitals are selling longevity check-ups, to people who want to age more slowly, for $5,500 to $45,000.
The rest of the day
20 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
Kenya records its first Ebola death
Kenya's health minister, Aden Duale, said on 6 October that a Kenyan man had died of Ebola in a Nairobi hospital, the country's first such death.
[12] [13] He had lived in the Democratic Republic of the Congo for seven years and fell ill there about a month ago.[12] He then travelled by road to Kampala, Uganda's capital, and flew to Nairobi on 3 October.[12] Officials listed 28 of his contacts and are looking for 23 passengers and four crew from his flight.[12] [13] End of August24%Early October40%North Kivu's share of Congo's new Ebola cases, according to Medecins Sans Frontieres. Why it matters — This outbreak is Ebola of the Bundibugyo type, which has no vaccine or specific medicine, and it has killed 4,082 of 8,463 confirmed patients in Congo since May.
[12] [13] The charity Medecins Sans Frontieres says Congo's North Kivu province now has 40% of new cases, up from 24% at the end of August.[12] -
03
Russia says little about a plague-lab death
Darya Shipilova, 28, worked at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute in Siberia and died on 2 October, two days after falling ill.
[16] Russia's health watchdog calls it pneumonia of unknown cause, and told the WHO that no plague case was recorded in Irkutsk.[14] [16] On 6 October the WHO rated the risk low for Russia and very low for Europe, and said none of her contacts had shown symptoms.[14] Its chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, still asked Russia for complete information.[14] Why it matters — Plague in the lungs, called pneumonic plague, can pass between people in coughed droplets, but antibiotics cure it if they start early.
[19] Tests on a few contacts found only Covid and a common cold virus, and the WHO is asking whether a second worker is ill.[17] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asked Russia to share more, and the CDC says it sees no wider threat to the US.[15] [18] -
04
A million Britons vape who never smoked
Figures from the Office for National Statistics, the UK's official counter, published on 6 October, show 1.1 million people in Great Britain who never smoked now use e-cigarettes.
[21] [22] That is 2.9% of never-smokers, up from 1.5% in 2021.[21] People aged 25 to 34 now vape most, at 16.4%.[21] [22] Fewer than one UK adult in ten now smokes, 4.9 million people, the lowest share on record.[21] [22] 3 of 100
never-smokers in Great Britain who now vape
About 3 in every 100 people who never smoked now vape; in 2021 it was about 1 or 2 in 100. Why it matters — Vapes are less harmful than cigarettes and help smokers stop, but their long-term effects are not known, so the NHS says non-smokers should never vape.
[22] From the new year, selling tobacco to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009 will be banned for life in the UK.[22] -
05
Doctors argue over a blood test for many cancers
On 23 September a panel advising the FDA backed Galleri, a $949 blood test from the company Grail that looks for signs of many cancers at once.
[24] [23] It voted 6 to 4 that the test works and 7 to 2 that its benefits outweigh its risks.[23] In a study of 35,000 people the test flagged 287, and about 60% of them turned out to have cancer.[23] On 6 October H. Gilbert Welch, a cancer screening researcher in Boston, urged the FDA not to approve it.[25] Why it matters — He points out that a 140,000-person trial in England found no fall in late-stage cancers, and a US law passed this year makes Medicare pay for such tests once approved.
[25] Colin Pritchard of the University of Washington says the test may help people at high risk, while false alarms could harm people at low risk.[23] -
06
Oxygen clips drifted from too high to too low
A pulse oximeter is a clip that shines light through a finger to estimate how much oxygen the blood carries.
[26] A study of five years of intensive care data at Johns Hopkins Hospital found the same make slowly went from reading too high to reading too low, at higher oxygen levels.[26] The errors were worse in patients of colour.[26] An FDA-funded study published as a preprint had also, unexpectedly, found the clips reading too low.[27] [26] Why it matters — A clip that is always wrong by the same amount can be corrected for, but one whose error changes cannot, says Thomas Valley of the University of Colorado.
[26] Masimo, which makes the clips used, says it knows of no change that would explain the drift, and the FDA's draft rules on oximeter bias were still not final in January.[26] [27] -
07
A US health survey may drop disability questions
The National Health Interview Survey has tracked Americans' health since 1957 and is run by the CDC's statistics centre.
[28] A redesign proposed in August would cut the adult questions from 482 to 150.[28] It drops questions on hearing aids, tiredness, thinking and wheelchairs, though more than a quarter of Americans have a disability.[28] The redesign is for the 2028 survey, and public comments close on 20 October.[29] Why it matters — Researchers say the survey may already miss 75% of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities, who have much higher rates of heart disease, diabetes and obesity.
[28] The US health department said the changes are meant to lower the cost of collecting data.[28] -
08
The WHO sets out care for children with obesity
On 7 October the WHO launches two guidelines on how health systems should care for children and teenagers living with obesity.
[30] Until now its treatment advice covered adults, including a guideline on weight-loss drugs issued in December 2025.[30] [31] In 2024 about 400 million people aged 5 to 19 were overweight, 170 million of them with obesity.[30] Obesity in that age group has quadrupled since 1990.[30] Why it matters — Children with obesity are very likely to stay that way as adults and to get type 2 diabetes and heart disease earlier, the WHO says.
[31] The recommendations themselves are presented at an online launch the same day.[30] -
09
Hospitals sell longevity check-ups
Some of the most prestigious US hospital systems now run cash-pay longevity clinics, which promise to track how a person is ageing.
[32] A STAT reporter tested one at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York, with blood tests, fitness tests and a mask that measures how much oxygen the body can use.[32] The programmes cost $5,500 to $45,000.[2] One test checks the sense of smell, because losing it is a sign of fast ageing.[2] Why it matters — These hospitals pay less tax because they are meant to serve the public, and a Carnegie Mellon University professor said the clinics make them look like businesses.
[2] Others question whether some tests, such as full-body MRI scans, are sound science.[2] -
10
Why a hangover can bring a morning of dread
Alcohol strengthens GABA, a brain chemical that slows nerve cells down, and weakens glutamate, which keeps the brain alert.
[33] As the alcohol wears off, the brain swings the other way, towards alertness and anxiety.[33] A 2023 study of over 5,000 UK and Dutch students found 18.3% felt anxious when hungover.[33] In a 2019 University of Exeter study of 97 drinkers, shy people felt calmer while drinking and much more anxious the next day.[33] Why it matters — Alcohol also breaks up REM sleep, the dreaming sleep that helps steady emotions, so a hungover brain meets its worries tired.
[33] Studies find that how anxious people feel does not neatly follow how much they drank.[33] -
11
Ten mental health trusts reported over bedroom cameras
NHS England told the Lampard Inquiry it had reported ten mental health trusts to the Care Quality Commission, England's health regulator, on 2 October.
[34] A review found they were not asking patients' consent properly before using camera systems such as Oxevision.[34] These infrared cameras sit in bedrooms and check breathing and pulse without staff going in.[34] The inquiry is examining the deaths of more than 2,000 people who were in Essex mental health units from 2000 to 2023.[34] Why it matters — NHS England first heard safety concerns about Oxevision in 2021, and lawyers for bereaved families asked why it took years to act.
[34] The trusts have not been named, and the regulator gives evidence to the inquiry on 7 October.[34] -
12
Calls for an inquiry into Northern Ireland's smear tests
Campaigners called the Ladies with Letters renewed calls at Stormont, Northern Ireland's parliament, for a public inquiry into cervical screening.
[35] A scandal at the Southern Health Trust led to 17,500 women being asked to have smear tests rechecked, going back to 2008.[35] The family of Louise Corbett Gibbons joined them; she died of cervical cancer at 24 in 2008, after a smear said to have been misread.[35] Her care was in the Belfast trust, outside the scandal.[35] Why it matters — The campaigners say other trusts may have had the same problems, and they meet Health Minister Robbie Butler next month.
[35] A former health minister ruled out a public inquiry earlier this year.[35] -
13
Health costs tie with petrol as US voters' worry
A poll by KFF, a US health research group, of 1,328 adults from 16 to 21 September found health costs and petrol tied as voters' top money worry.
[36] A quarter were very worried about paying for each, and another third somewhat worried.[36] Voters trusted Democrats over Republicans on health costs by 42% to 22%.[36] Support for a single national health plan, called Medicare for All, reached 66%, the highest since KFF began asking in 2016.[36] Why it matters — That support fell to 24% when people were told the plan might delay tests and treatment, so the number moves with how the question is put.
[36] The US midterm elections are about a month away.[36] -
14
Guides kept new mothers in care
A Northwestern Medicine study of 405 low-income pregnant patients in Chicago gave some a trained guide, called a patient navigator, from late pregnancy to a year after birth.
[37] The guides booked appointments, arranged transport and childcare, and explained medical information.[37] With a guide, 96% came to their check-up after the birth, against 80% with usual care.[37] A year later 57% had seen a family doctor, against 30%.[37] With a guide96%Usual care80%Share of new mothers who came to their check-up after the birth, in the Chicago study. Why it matters — Problems that start in pregnancy, such as diabetes and high blood pressure, can affect a mother's health for years, so staying in care matters.
[37] The study appeared in JAMA Health Forum on 2 October.[37] -
15
Knee shape and torn ligaments
The anterior cruciate ligament, or ACL, is a band inside the knee that keeps it stable, and tearing it is a common sports injury.
[38] Young active women tear it more than twice as often as men.[38] Researchers built computer models of the knees of 168 young active people, half with a torn ACL, and put the same twisting load on each.[38] The shape of the knee put more force through the ligament in injured people and in women.[38] Why it matters — It points to part of the risk being built into the shape of a person's knee, not only into how they move.
[38] The authors hope models like these can one day spot knees at risk before an injury.[38] -
16
Overfed baby mice lost muscle faster in old age
Researchers in Shanghai overfed mice just after birth and followed them into old age.
[39] The overfed mice lived shorter lives and lost more muscle as they aged.[39] Their guts kept a weaker layer of protective mucus and fewer of a bacterium called Akkermansia, which makes acetate, a substance that helps muscle cells make energy.[39] Giving old mice the bacterium or acetate restored their muscle strength.[39] Why it matters — Moving gut bacteria from overfed mice into other mice passed on the muscle loss, which points at the gut as the link between early feeding and muscle in old age.
[39] The work was done only in mice.[39] -
17
Cardiac arrest survival lagged in Fukushima
Researchers studied 188,783 cases in eastern Japan, from 2007 to 2023, of a heart stopping outside hospital in front of family, friends or colleagues.
[40] In the years after rebuilding from the 2011 earthquake and tsunami ended, 3.1% of these people in Fukushima survived a month with a healthy brain.[40] In other areas the tsunami hit, it was 6.4%.[40] During the pandemic Fukushima's rate was still lowest, at 2.35%.[40] Fukushima3.1%Other tsunami areas6.4%Share surviving a month with a healthy brain after the heart stopped, in the years after rebuilding ended. Why it matters — Survival depends on people nearby starting chest compressions and using a defibrillator, and earlier Japanese studies found both dropped after disasters.
[40] The authors could not tell from their data why Fukushima's gap lasted so long.[40] -
18
A cold rinse eased pain after root canals
A root canal cleans out the infected inside of a tooth, and pain afterwards is common.
[41] A review pooled 11 randomised trials of rinsing the canal with cold liquid during treatment, called cryotherapy.[41] Patients given the cold rinse had less pain 6, 24, 48 and 72 hours later, though not at 12 hours.[41] Only one of the 11 trials was judged at low risk of bias.[41] Why it matters — The cold is meant to calm swelling around the tip of the tooth's root.
[41] The authors call the benefit short-term and ask for larger, better trials before dentists are told to use it.[41] -
19
Planted documents steered AI health answers
Many medical AI tools answer by first searching a library of documents and then writing from what they find.
[42] Researchers in Hong Kong showed that planting five documents per question in that library could change how answers were framed, without changing the facts.[42] In one test the answers were steered towards a named product.[42] Often one or two planted documents among those the AI found were enough.[42] Why it matters — The attack works on the library of documents rather than on the AI itself, so any tool that reads from a shared collection could be open to it.
[42] It worked on all five AI models and three medical libraries tested.[42] -
20
Smokers needed more surgery for golfer's elbow
Golfer's elbow is pain where the forearm's tendons join the inner side of the elbow.
[43] Researchers searched US insurance records of about 8 million patients from 2007 to 2015 and found 23,573 with it.[43] People recorded with a tobacco problem had about 60% higher odds of having surgery for it than matched non-users.[43] Their odds of getting the diagnosis at all were only 5% higher.[43] Why it matters — The authors say insurance records can show a link but not a cause, so smoking itself may not be what drives the surgery.
[43] Tobacco use was recorded in 30% of those who had surgery, against 24% of all patients with the condition.[43] -
21
AI home exercise for Parkinson's showed no clear gain
Researchers in China gave 120 people with early Parkinson's disease, a brain illness that slows movement, an AI-guided exercise programme at home for one, two or three months.
[44] Only 71 finished.[44] Movement scores at three months did not differ between the groups.[44] No falls or side effects were recorded, and there was no group without the programme to compare with.[44] Why it matters — A hint that the longest course helped thinking came from a check done after the trial ended, which the authors say proves nothing yet.
[44] They call for bigger trials planned in advance.[44]
What a treatment is worth depends on the risk it takes away
A vape helps a smoker and only adds danger for someone who never smoked, and a cancer test or a flu shot does most good where the risk is highest.
The twist
A vape, a cancer blood test or a flu shot does not have one value: each is worth most to the people with the most danger for it to take away.
The picture
How it works
- Every shot, test or product has costs and side effects for everyone who uses it
- What it gives back is the harm it prevents
- Someone at high risk has a lot of harm for it to prevent
- Someone at low risk has little, but pays the same costs
- So the same thing can help one person on balance and harm another
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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A million Britons vape who never smoked
A vape helps a smoker because it replaces cigarettes, but a person who never smoked has no cigarette risk for it to remove, only the vape's own.
-
Doctors argue over a blood test for many cancers
A researcher says the test may help people at high cancer risk, while people at low risk mostly face false alarms and the scans and biopsies that follow.
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The early flu season
The new mRNA flu shot was approved for people over 50, and older adults were most of those in hospital with flu in Europe last winter, so a shot prevents the most harm in them.
Where you've seen this
Flood insurance
a policy is worth a lot on a riverbank and little on a hilltop, though the price is paid in both places
Speed bumps
outside a school they prevent crashes; on an empty country road they only slow everyone down
Bank guards
a guard at a bank vault prevents real theft; the same guard at an empty field prevents nothing
The catch
A person's own risk is often hard to know in advance, and it can be higher or lower than their group's, so the line between who gains and who loses is blurry.
And the whole of it
The regulator approving a test, the doctor offering it and the person taking it each see a different part of the same sum. Each of us stands somewhere on that scale of risk, usually without knowing exactly where.
What is really going on
Russia has told the world little about why a worker at a Siberian plague laboratory died, and the head of the WHO has asked it for complete information.
Why it works on us — When officials say little, people assume the worst, and a biosecurity expert said Russia could calm fears simply by releasing basic facts such as the germ's genetic code.
Who gains
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Grail, maker of the Galleri test
— If the FDA approves the test, a law passed this year means Medicare must pay for it, at up to $949 a test.
[25] [24] -
Moderna
— Its mFLUSIVA is the first mRNA flu shot on the US market, approved for everyone aged 50 and over.
[7] -
Hospitals running longevity clinics
— They charge $5,500 to $45,000 in cash while keeping the tax breaks they get for serving the public.
[2] -
Vape sellers in Great Britain
— About 1.1 million of their users never smoked, so that part of their trade does not come from helping smokers stop.
[21] -
The US health department's budget
— Cutting the survey's adult questions from 482 to 150 lowers the cost of collecting data, it says.
[28]
Who pays
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Americans with intellectual and developmental disabilities
— A survey that may already miss 75% of them would ask even less about how they live.
[28] -
People who pay for US health insurance and Medicare
— Welch estimates that testing every American over 50 each year would cost $60 billion to $100 billion a year.
[25] -
Patients of colour in intensive care
— Oxygen clips have read too high on darker skin, which can make a patient look healthier than they are.
[26] -
Families and health workers around the man who died in Nairobi
— Twenty-eight of his contacts are being followed, and quarantine has been arranged for passengers from his flight found to be at risk.
[12] [13] -
Patients in ten English mental health trusts
— A review found their consent to bedroom camera monitoring was not sought in line with NHS England's rules.
[34]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
What killed Darya Shipilova.
Russia's watchdog says pneumonia of unknown cause and that tests found no germ linked to her work, while a regional leader first wrote that she died of plague and then edited it to possibly.
[16] [17] The WHO has asked for more, including whether a second worker is ill.[17] -
02
Whether this US flu season is unusual.
Johns Hopkins and University of Washington experts call the start early and odd, while Michael Osterholm calls it a normal year so far and national CDC data show little flu outside the West.
[1] [2] -
03
How well this winter's shots match the new variant seen in Seattle.
The strains were picked in February, the variant has not been named in what we could read, and last winter's mismatched shot still cut adults' hospital risk by about 30%.
[3] [1] [6] -
04
Whether the Galleri cancer test saves lives.
The FDA panel backed it, but the 140,000-person NHS trial found no fall in late-stage cancers, and the FDA has not yet decided.
[23] [25] -
05
Why pulse oximeters at Johns Hopkins drifted from too high to too low.
One of the study's authors says he has no idea, and Masimo, the maker, says it knows of no change in its sensors or software.
[26] -
06
Whether Ebola spread on the flight to Nairobi.
Only the man who died has tested positive so far, and officials were still looking for 23 passengers and four crew.
[12] -
07
What vaping does to people who never smoked, over many years.
The NHS says the long-term effects of vaping are not yet clear, while 1.1 million people in Great Britain who never smoked now vape.
[22] [21] -
08
Which ten trusts filmed patients without proper consent.
NHS England has not named them, and the regulator has not yet said what it will do.
[34]
Fewer than one adult in ten in the UK now smokes, the lowest share on record. Among 18 to 24 year olds, smoking fell from 25.7% in 2011 to 7.2% in 2025.
Also true today
- In a Chicago study, 96 of every 100 new mothers given a trained guide came to their check-up after the birth, against 80 with usual care.
- None of the people who had contact with the plague-lab worker who died in Siberia has shown any symptoms, the WHO said on 6 October.
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