Personal Money · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Andy Burnham plans to stop the state pension rising with pay from 2030, to help fund free care in England. It would still rise with prices, or by 2.5%.

Personal Money 27 sources

Britain's prime minister wants to end the pension triple lock after the next election and spend the savings on a national care service. The IFS, a research group, and the UK government's own forecaster say the savings come late and fall short of the care bill.

2.5%

the smallest rise the state pension would get in any year from 2030

when prices rise faster it would follow prices, and it would only broadly follow pay over several years [2]

GBP 9bn

a year less spent on pensions today, if the new rule had been used since 2011

the IFS's estimate; the triple lock has added about 16bn pounds a year against a link to pay alone [2]

GBP 18.5bn

a year, the Health Foundation's estimate for fully state-funded care in England

Andrew Dilnot, who led an earlier commission on care, says an NHS-style system could cost well over 18bn pounds [7]

The lead story — what happened

Andy Burnham, Britain's prime minister, told the Labour Party conference on Tuesday that the state pension triple lock will end from 2030. [1][7]
Today the state pension rises every April by whichever is highest: the rise in prices, the rise in average pay, or 2.5%. [1]
From April 2030 it would rise by prices or 2.5%, whichever is higher, and would no longer jump with pay each year. [2]
Burnham says the pension would still keep its value against pay over time. [1] The UK government has not yet published the full details of how. [2]
The money saved would help pay for a national care service in England that is free when people use it. [1]
Today an English council gives no help with care costs to anyone whose assets are worth more than 23,250 pounds, including their home. [7]
The UK government says the new service would pay for care itself, but not for a person's accommodation in a care home. [2]
Nothing changes before the next general election, which is due by August 2029. [7] Labour will put the plan in its manifesto for that election. [1]
Downing Street says the change will save 15bn pounds a year by the end of the 2030s, without showing how. [2] The OBR, the UK government's official forecaster, put a similar change at about 6bn pounds a year by 2040. [2]
The IFS, a research group on taxes and public spending, says the savings will be small in the first few years and grow over time. [1]
Burnham also promised that pensioners on low incomes will not start paying income tax before the end of the decade. [3]
The attacks came at once. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, called it an offensive against the elderly. [1] John Swinney, Scotland's first minister, called it a bad idea. [3]

£15bn a yearDowning Street

£6bn a yearOBR forecast

Two estimates of the yearly saving by about 2040. Downing Street's number is more than twice its own forecaster's, and the forecaster costed a similar change, not this exact one.

Who is involved

Andy Burnham

Britain's prime minister since July; he wants to end the triple lock from 2030 to help pay for free care
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)

a research group on taxes and public spending; it says the change saves little at first and will not pay for universal care
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

the UK government's official forecaster; it found no big saving from a similar change until 2034
Sir Andrew Dilnot

an economist who led a commission on paying for care 15 years ago; he says an NHS-style system could take decades
John Swinney

Scotland's first minister; Scotland already gives free personal care, and he called Burnham's plan a bad idea

How it unfolded

2010 Britain's coalition government brings in the triple lock [1]
By 10 Sep the British Chambers of Commerce, a business group, calls for the triple lock to be scrapped [8]
27 Sep Burnham proposes an NHS-style care system and does not rule out tax rises [6]
29 Sep he tells Labour's conference the triple lock ends from 2030 [1]
By Aug 2029 the next general election is due [7]
April 2030 the new pension rule would start [2]

Where this points

Watch the detail: how the pension would keep pace with pay over time, and whether the care service pays for a room in a care home. [2]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Frauds using real accounts High↑

British banks and other firms closed the accounts of 238,396 suspected money mules in 2025, against 184,935 in 2023. [14] Four men in Massachusetts were charged over 12.2m dollars of stolen US government checks paid into banks around Boston. [16] The SEC says two investment schemes run partly through WhatsApp chats took at least 15m dollars from investors. [11]

Household bills climbing Building↑

A typical British energy bill is forecast to reach 1,999 pounds a year in January. [9] In Florida, where homeowners are squeezed by insurance costs, voters decide in November on cutting property tax. [18] A 5% deposit on an average UK home now costs about 16,850 pounds with fees. [25]

Help promised years from now Steady→

The new state pension rule would start in April 2030. [2] GB Grid, a new public body, aims to bring British energy costs in line with Europe's within ten years. [5] England's first 70,000 new social and affordable homes are to be built over ten years. [22]

The rest of the day

12 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
January energy bills forecast up 16%

Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy, forecasts that a typical British household's energy bill will reach 1,999 pounds a year in January. [9] That is 276 pounds, or 16%, more, and the biggest rise in four years. [9] In August the same firm expected 9%. [10] First, on Thursday, bills rise about 4% to 1,723 pounds under the price cap set by Ofgem, the energy regulator. [9] That rise would be bigger without a cut in VAT on household electricity, from 5% to nothing, which starts the same day and is worth about 45 pounds a year. [9][27]

From 1 October£1,723
January forecast£1,999
A typical yearly energy bill under the October cap, and Cornwall Insight's forecast for January.

Why it matters — About 20 million homes on variable tariffs would pay the January rise in the coldest month, and Ofgem only sets it in late November. [9] Households already owe their suppliers more than 5bn pounds in unpaid bills. [9]
03
SEC charges two WhatsApp investment scams

The SEC, the US regulator for shares and investments, charged four companies on 29 September over two schemes that took at least 15m dollars. [11] In one, Cryptoaiml ran WhatsApp chats where people posed as investment professionals and posted supposed AI trading tips. [11] In the other, TSAI rented out AI trading robots that did not exist. [11] Both pointed to a false form they had filed with the SEC, to look regulated. [11] Cryptoaiml told people who tried to withdraw to pay fees first. [11]

Why it matters — In December 2025 the SEC charged four WhatsApp investment clubs and three fake trading platforms over 14m dollars taken in a similar way. [13] The SEC warns that such groups may use fake videos of well-known experts. [12]
04
Banks close more money-mule accounts

A money mule is a person whose bank account is used to move stolen money for criminals. [14] British banks and other firms closed the accounts of 238,396 suspected mules in 2025, up from 184,935 in 2023, the FCA, Britain's financial regulator, said. [14] The number barely grew after 2024, when it was 233,269. [14][15] Criminals usually took the money out, as cash or purchases, between the second and fifth account. [15]

Why it matters — The sharpest rise was among people aged 40 to 49, from 25,760 to 37,274 in a year. [14] People who lend their account can lose it and face prosecution, and the FCA wants firms to share more of what they know about mules. [14][15]
05
Florida votes on cutting homeowners' tax

Florida's lawmakers approved a ballot question in June asking voters to cut property tax on the home people live in. [19] The part of a home's value that is not taxed would rise from 50,000 dollars to 150,000 in 2027 and 250,000 in 2028. [18] The vote is in November, and 60% of voters must say yes. [18] School taxes are not cut. [19] In August a judge ruled the ballot wording misleading and gave the state until 14 August to rewrite it. [21]

Now$50,000
2027$150,000
2028$250,000
How much of a Florida home's value would be free of property tax if voters say yes in November.

Why it matters — Renters get no cut. [18] One economist expects landlords and businesses to pay more tax to fill the gap. [18] People who move to Florida after 2026 would wait five years for the full exemption. [20]
06
Bus fares in England capped at 2 pounds

From 1 January 2027, bus fares in England outside London are capped at 2 pounds a trip, down from 3 pounds. [26] Burnham promised it in his first week as prime minister, in July. [27] The cap had risen to 3 pounds in January 2025, though Liverpool and Manchester kept their fares at 2 pounds. [27] The UK government expects the cut to cost more than 500m pounds. [26]

Why it matters — It plans to pay for most of it by lending, instead of giving, money for climate projects abroad, and the IFS says it is unclear how much will come back. [26] Most rail season tickets in England are frozen until March 2027, the first freeze in 30 years. [27]
07
70,000 social homes for England

In August the UK government named where the first 70,000 social and affordable homes will be built in England, over ten years. [22][24] It shared out almost 10bn pounds, with money for six areas led by mayors, on top of 6bn pounds already promised for London. [22] About 60% will be for social rent, which costs about half of a market rent. [22] The whole programme is worth 39bn pounds. [24]
- Social rent60%
- Other affordable homes40%
How the first 70,000 homes are split. Social rent costs about half of a market rent.
Why it matters — Almost 180,000 children in England are growing up without a permanent home, the UK government says. [23] Even if all 70,000 are built, that is under 5% of the UK government's goal of 1.5 million homes. [24]
08
A public body to cut grid costs

Burnham announced GB Grid, a new public body that will invest in Britain's electricity grid. [5][3] It will use 4bn pounds already set aside for Great British Energy, the state-owned energy company. [5] Its aim is to bring British energy costs in line with other European countries within ten years. [5] Surveys show strong support across parties for public ownership of energy. [5]

Why it matters — An expert writing in The Conversation says energy costs soared and investment fell after energy was sold off in the 1980s and 1990s. [5] The new body's own target is ten years away. [5]
09
Councils may buy neglected rented homes

Burnham said councils in England will find it easier to buy private rented homes in poor condition when landlords ignore warnings to fix them. [1] He said the law will be changed if needed. [1] He also plans to end the legal ban on the public owning water companies, starting what he called a ten-year journey. [1] Other plans put legal limits on the charges leaseholders pay. [5]

Why it matters — Tenants whose landlords will not repair their homes could end up with the council as landlord. [1] One economist warns that capping leasehold charges puts a cost on private firms and may cut their investment in housing. [5]
10
Four charged over stolen US government checks

Four men in Massachusetts were charged on 24 September over at least 12.2m dollars of stolen US Treasury checks, the IRS says. [16] The checks were real and made out to real people, then changed so the money went to shell companies the men controlled. [16] One of the men and others are also accused of sending texts that looked like they came from victims' banks. [16] They then posed as fraud investigators to get the codes that let them move money out. [16]

Why it matters — Prosecutors say some of the money went on 310,000 dollars of luxury watches and a 425,000-dollar loan against a property in Nantucket. [16] Eight other people were charged over the same checks in June 2025. [16]
11
InterestMe advisers go into administration

InterestMe Financial Planning, a British firm that advised on pensions and mortgages, went into administration on 24 September, along with InterestMe Advisers, which worked under it, the FCA says. [17] Kroll, a firm of advisers, is now running both. [17] In July InterestMe had agreed to limits on the work it could do. [17] It did not hold its clients' money or investments; another regulated firm does. [17]

Why it matters — Clients with complaints may not be paid in full, because the firm is insolvent. [17] The FCA warns that callers may pretend to be from InterestMe or Kroll. [17]
12
The Lifetime ISA's frozen price limit

A Lifetime ISA is a British savings account that adds a 25% government bonus, up to 1,000 pounds a year, to money saved for a first home. [25] It can only be used on a home costing up to 450,000 pounds, a limit that has not changed since 2017. [25] Taking the money out for anything else before 60 brings a penalty, so savers can get back less than they put in. [25] Ministers plan to replace it with a First Time Buyer ISA. [25]

Why it matters — The BBC reports that the unchanged limit has left some savers out of pocket. [25] No clear details of the new account have been published. [25]
13
US states vote on older owners' tax

The average US property tax bill on a family home is 4,427 dollars a year, up more than 3%, Kiplinger reports. [21] On 3 November Louisiana votes on letting local governments give some older homeowners an extra exemption. [21] Oklahoma votes on cutting the yearly limit on how fast a home's taxed value can grow, from 3% to 1.75%. [21] Oklahoma's measure also changes a freeze on values for owners aged 65 and over. [21]

Why it matters — Supporters say older owners on fixed incomes need help as their homes' taxed values rise. [21] Opponents say less property tax means less money for local schools and services. [21]

02 Lesson why it matters

A fraud looks normal because it runs through real accounts and papers

Banks and regulators look for things that are fake, so criminals move stolen money through real people's accounts, real checks and real filings.

The twist

Checks are built to catch fake things. Today's frauds ran through real accounts, real checks and real filings, so each step looked normal to the bank that handled it.

The picture

2023184,935

2024233,269

2025238,396

People whose accounts British banks and other firms closed as suspected money mules, each year. Every one held a real account.

How it works

Banks and regulators check for things that look fake
So criminals use real ones: a real person's account, a real check, a real filing
Each step looks like an ordinary payment or an ordinary firm
Criminals usually take the money out between the second and fifth account
By the time anyone traces the whole route, the money is cash or spent

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

Banks close more money-mule accounts

Stolen money moved through real people's accounts, and was usually taken out between the second and fifth account.
Four charged over stolen US government checks

The checks were real US Treasury checks, changed so a real bank would pay a shell company.
SEC charges two WhatsApp investment scams

The schemes filed a form with the SEC, full of false claims, and showed it to investors as proof they were regulated.
InterestMe advisers go into administration

The regulator warns that callers may use the real names of InterestMe and Kroll to reach worried clients.

Where you've seen this

a message sent from a friend's real, hacked account passes filters built to catch fake senders

Sport

an athlete given back their own stored blood passes a test built to find foreign drugs

Online reviews

real accounts paid to post praise get past checks built to spot robot accounts

The catch

A real account also has a real owner who can be found. British banks closed the accounts of 238,396 suspected mules in 2025.

And the whole of it

Most people meet this only at one point: a text that looks like it is from their bank, or a stranger asking to borrow their account. Each bank sees only the payments that pass through it. The FCA wants banks to share more of what they see, so the whole route can be traced.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Andy Burnham wants the state pension to rise more slowly in years when pay jumps, starting in 2030, and to spend the money saved on free care in England. [1] The IFS and the UK government's own forecaster say the saving stays small for years, while the Health Foundation puts fully free care at about 18.5bn pounds a year. [2][7]

Why it works on us — A loss is easier to accept when it arrives with a gain for the same people: Burnham told pensioners who pay care charges out of a small pension that under his plan they would stop. [1]

Who gains

People in England who will need care and own a home or savings — Today anyone with assets over 23,250 pounds pays for their own care. [7] Burnham's service would pay for the care itself. [2]
Pensioners on low incomes — Burnham promised they will not start paying income tax before the end of the decade. [3]
Florida homeowners who already live in their homes — The untaxed part of their home's value would rise to 250,000 dollars by 2028 if voters agree. [18]
Families waiting for social housing in England — About 60% of the first 70,000 funded homes will be let at about half of a market rent. [22]
Households paying for electricity in Britain — The VAT cut that starts on Thursday is worth about 45 pounds a year on a typical bill. [9]

Who pays

Pensioners after 2030, in years when pay rises faster than prices — Their pension would rise by prices or 2.5% that year instead of following pay. [2]
British households on variable energy tariffs — Cornwall Insight forecasts a typical bill 276 pounds a year higher in January. [9]
Florida renters, landlords and businesses — Renters get no cut, and one economist expects landlords and businesses to pay more tax to fill the gap. [18]
People who move to Florida after 2026 — They would wait five years for the full exemption. [20]
Banks, credit unions and their customers around Boston — Prosecutors say the stolen-check frauds left them with million-dollar losses. [16]
InterestMe clients with complaints — The firm is insolvent and will likely not have enough to pay compensation in full. [17]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

How much the pension change will really save.

Downing Street says 15bn pounds a year by the end of the 2030s and has not shown how. The OBR put a similar change at about 6bn pounds a year by 2040. [2]
02

What the triple lock costs today.

One BBC report says 15.5bn pounds a year, three times what was first expected for 2030. [4] The IFS says 16bn pounds a year, counted against a pension that had followed pay alone since 2011. [2] The BBC report does not say what it measured against, so the two cannot be lined up.
03

Whether free care will pay for a room in a care home.

Andrew Dilnot read Burnham's plan as entirely free, rooms included. [7] The UK government has since said accommodation in a care home would not be covered. [2]
04

Whether any of it happens.

It depends on Labour winning an election due by August 2029, and the full details have not been published. [7][2]
05

What January's energy bill will actually be.

1,999 pounds is Cornwall Insight's forecast, and Ofgem does not set the cap until late November. [9]
06

How the VAT cut on electricity will be paid for.

BBC Verify says its 850m-pound cost was meant to come from scrapping a digital ID scheme that was never funded either. [26] So the money must be found in the next Budget, through tax rises or cuts elsewhere. [26]
07

How much Florida's tax cut would take from local budgets.

The Conversation cites the state's Revenue Estimating Conference at 11.8bn dollars a year. [18] Kiplinger cites a legislative analysis of up to 8.4bn dollars a year by 2028. [20] Neither says why the two differ.
08

What wording Florida voters will see in November.

A judge ruled the ballot summary misleading in August and gave the state until 14 August to rewrite it. None of today's sources reports the new wording. [21]
09

How many people lost money to the WhatsApp schemes, and whether any will be repaid.

The SEC gives totals of more than 12.5m and 2.8m dollars and says hundreds of investors, but no exact count and no repayment plan. [11]
10

What InterestMe's clients with complaints will get back.

The firm is insolvent, and the administrators and the FSCS, Britain's compensation scheme for failed financial firms, have not yet said what is covered. [17]

04 Hope carry this

A cut in VAT on household electricity starts on Thursday in Britain, worth about 45 pounds a year on a typical bill.

Also true today

British banks and other firms closed the accounts of 238,396 suspected money mules in 2025, up from 184,935 in 2023.
InterestMe's clients' money and investments are held by a separate regulated firm, not by the adviser that failed.