A booking app says US Thanksgiving flights average $402, up 31% on last year, and a 15% sale on a Christmas hotel would only match last year's rate

The stories

15 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   A booking app says US Thanksgiving flights average $402, up 31% on last year, and a 15% sale on a Christmas hotel would only match last year's rate

   $402, up 31%

   average US Thanksgiving round trip, against last year

   from Hopper, a booking app; Sunday after Thanksgiving can top $600 [1]

   $452, up 23%

   average US Christmas round trip, against last year

   another report of the same index gives 22% [3]

   $197, up 18%

   average US Christmas hotel room, a night

   Thanksgiving rooms are about $170, comparable to last year [1]

   22.4%

   rise in US air fares in the year to September

   the official US price count for air tickets [1]

   What happened

   • Hopper, a booking app, says domestic US round trips at Thanksgiving average $402 this year. [1][3]
   • That is 31% more than the same holiday last year. [4]
   • Christmas round trips average $452, up 23% on last year, Fortune reports. [1]
   • Hopper projects this will be the most expensive holiday travel season in a decade. [1]
   • Jet fuel is the main reason given. [2]
   • In late October US jet fuel topped $4.75 a gallon, almost twice its price a year before. [2]
   • Delta, one of the biggest US airlines, says its fuel bill rose 60% in the third quarter. [5]
   • That was $1.6 billion more than a year earlier. [1]
   • Delta's boss, Ed Bastian, said in July he expected to pass close to 100% of the rise on to customers. [1]
   • Delta's income for each seat flown one mile rose 15%. [5]
   • Airlines also fly fewer seats. [1]
   • American, United and Southwest have cut less profitable routes, Fortune reports. [1]
   • United's finance chief said in September that some planned December flights would not fly. [6]
   • US air fares in September were 22.4% above a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found. [1]
   • Christmas hotel rooms in the US average $197 a night, up 18%, Hopper says. [1]
   • Thanksgiving rooms are about $170 a night, comparable to last year. [1]
   • Fortune did the sum on an average room: 15% off $197 is about $167. [1]
   • That is roughly what the average Christmas room cost a year ago, Fortune says. [1]
   • No hotel has offered that discount in this report: the 15% is an example. [1]
   • Black Friday is 27 November, Cyber Monday 30 November and Travel Tuesday 1 December. [1]
   • DaShawna Carpenter owns Skyy Travel Mavens, a travel agency. [1]
   • She says sale prices are 'sometimes inflated to appear cheaper during the sale periods'. [1] She names no airline or hotel. [1]
   • She says some airlines cut the fare but leave fuel charges, taxes and fees the same. [1]

   Who is involved

   • Ed Bastian runs Delta
   • DaShawna Carpenter owner of the agency Skyy Travel Mavens; says sale prices are sometimes inflated, and names no firm
   • Hopper a booking app that tracks air fares; its index is the source of the fare figures here
   • Delta one of the biggest US airlines; says its fuel bill rose 60% and it expected to pass nearly all of it on
   • Airlines for America the trade group of the big US airlines; its head says airlines are eating most of the fuel bill

   How it unfolded

   1. September United warns
   2. December some flights dropped
   3. 27 Nov Black Friday [1]
   4. 30 Nov Cyber Monday
   5. 1 Dec Travel Tuesday [1]
   6. Today fares at a ten-year high
   7. 27 Nov the first big sale day
   8. Sept United says some December flights will not fly [6]
   9. Late Oct US jet fuel tops $4.75 a gallon [2]

   Why it matters

   Holiday families pay this, because a trip home is hard to skip. [2]

   Rachel Stern of Maryland told NPR she will drive with her children instead of flying. [2]

   How it works

   Economists call how much buyers cut back when a price rises the price elasticity of demand.

   Hopper's Hayley Berg says holiday travellers are unlikely to change their trips. [2] Delta says fares rose and buyers kept paying. [5]

   Seen it before

   A school play sells out even at a dearer ticket, because parents want to see their own child.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Hopper, a booking app, says US holiday fares are at a ten-year high, and jet fuel at almost twice last year's price is the main reason given. [2]A 15% Black Friday cut on a Christmas hotel room, Fortune worked out, would bring it back only to last year's average. [1]
   • Chris Sununu, head of the big US airlines' trade group, says they are 'eating most' of the fuel cost. [2]
   • Delta's boss said in July it expected to pass close to 100% on. [1]
   • Hopper is a booking app, and it told people to book before Halloween. [1][3]
   • Who pays US families who fly home at the holidays — Higher fares pass part of the fuel bill to them, and some, like Rachel Stern, drive instead. [2]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the ten-year high in US holiday fares allows for inflation.

     Fortune and NPR report Hopper's fares and rises, and neither says whether the high is in plain dollars or after rising prices. [1][2]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the Christmas rise is 22% or 23%.

     Fortune reports Hopper's Christmas fare as up 23%, and the New York Times reports the same $452 fare as up 22%. [1][3]

   • Nobody knows yet

     How much of the fuel bill US airlines are really absorbing.

     The airlines' trade group says they are eating most of it, while Delta's boss said in July he expected to pass close to 100% on. [2][1]

   • Nobody knows yet

     What airlines will actually take off fares on Black Friday.

     No fare sale is named in these reports yet, and the 15% sum in them is worked out on the average hotel room. [1]

   What comes next

   The first test is Black Friday, 27 November, when airlines and hotels are expected to compete for bookings. [1]

1. 02

   Black Friday stretches across November

   What happened

   • In Australia, sales now begin weeks earlier, so November is 'almost a whole sale season'. [7]
   • Sara Quach Thaichon, a marketing academic at Griffith University, says so. [7]
   • She says adverts promise up to 70% off, while most discounts are closer to 20% or 30%. [7]
   • The ABC reports that a product 50% off its recommended price may normally be 40% off. [7]
   • Last year Which?, a UK consumer group, found 8 in 10 deals cheaper or equal at other times. [8]
   • An Apple iPad cost £309 on 19 October, £391.99 by 10 November, and £309 again when last year's sale began. [8]
   • WalletHub, a US finance site, found 36% of last year's Black Friday items cost no less than weeks earlier. [9]

   Who is involved

   • Sara Quach Thaichon marketing, Griffith University

   Why it matters

   A percentage off 'doesn't actually tell us whether the final price is good', Thaichon says. [7]

   How it works

   Why 15% off can still cost more than last year

   Marketing researchers call it the reference price: a sale is measured from a starting number, so it cannot show whether that number rose first.

   The twist

   A 15% sale tells a buyer how far a price fell from today's tag. It does not say how far that tag rose since last year.

   The picture

   Last year$100

   Up 31%$131

   Then 15% off$111

   Step by step

   1. 1 A buyer cannot judge a price alone, so they compare it with a number held in mind
   2. 2 Marketing researchers call it a reference price, the buyer's starting number
   3. 3 It comes from memory, or from the 'was' price the seller prints
   4. 4 A percentage off only measures the distance from that starting number
   5. 5 If the starting number rose first, the same percentage lands higher

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Black Friday stretches across November

     A product advertised at 50% off its recommended price may normally be 40% off, so the starting number is one it rarely sells at.

   • Seven Australian homes show their food bills

     Udita's starting number is her own memory: she compares her trolley with what the same money bought a few years ago.

   • US estate agents' group sees waiting buyers

     Lawrence Yun measures this year's 4 million sales from 5.2 million in 2000, so the year he starts from sets how large the gap looks.

   Where you've seen this

   Sale rails

   A 'was' price printed on a tag is a starting number the shop chose.

   Pay rises

   A 3% rise is measured from last year's pay, and says nothing about what the money buys now.

   Rent talks

   A landlord's asking rent is the number the tenant then haggles down from.

   School reports

   A pupil named 'most improved' is measured from a low first mark.

   The catch

   A real sale exists too: 15% off a price an item truly sold at is money saved, and a tag alone cannot show which kind it is.

   And the whole of it

   The airline's fuel buyer, the booking app tracking fares, the shop printing the tag and the family remembering last Christmas each start from a different number. None of them can see all the others' numbers, and most buyers see only the tag.

   The truth

   • Why it works on people A percentage off can make a buyer feel they have found a bargain, says marketing researcher Sara Quach Thaichon, even when it says nothing about whether the final price is good. [7]
   • Those counts cover last year, so they say nothing yet about this November's prices. [8][9]

1. 03

   David Jones stops refunds and gift cards

   What happened

   • David Jones, an Australian department store chain now run by receivers, stopped accepting refunds on Saturday. [10]
   • It also stopped selling gift cards the same day. [10]
   • Gift cards already sold can still be used in store and online, the Sydney Morning Herald reports. [10]
   • Items bought before 7 November can be exchanged within 30 days. [10] Later purchases get 14 days. [10]
   • Australian consumer law still applies to what people buy there, the Herald reports. [10]

   Why it matters

   An unspent gift card is only useful while the shops that take it stay open. [10]

2. 04

   A free grand piano that never comes

   What happened

   • Emails in the UK are offering free grand pianos from a woman whose husband has died. [11]
   • She wants it to go to someone 'who will truly appreciate and care for it'. [11]
   • The piano is in storage, the email says, so the reader only pays for delivery. [11]
   • Sykes & Sons, a piano workshop in Stockport, says the fee is usually between £100 and £500. [11]
   • Churches, places of education and individual musicians have been caught, the workshop says. [11]
   • Forsyth, a British music shop, says there is no piano behind the offer. [11]

   Why it matters

   Unlike most scam emails, this one usually carries no link and no attachment. [11]

   How it works

   It is what the Guardian calls an advance fee fraud: money paid upfront for goods that never arrive. [11]

   The piano costs nothing, so the small delivery fee is the only money asked for. [11] After that payment, the emails stop. [11]

   Seen it before

   A stranger says you have won a prize, and only the postage needs paying first.

   The truth

   • Neither firm gives a count of people who have paid. [11]

   Good news

   • Forsyth, a British music shop, stopped people from paying a delivery fee for a free grand piano that did not exist, after they asked it for advice before sending the money.
3. 05

   Wales may end free school milk

   What happened

   • Free school milk for young children in Wales could end next year. [12]
   • The School Milk Subsidy Scheme has run there since 1977. [12]
   • The Rural Payments Agency, the UK body that runs it, will stop doing so from next April. [12]
   • So the Welsh government is weighing a new grant-funded scheme against ending it. [12]
   • Under the current rules, reception to year two get free milk, and years three to six get it cheaper. [12]

   How it unfolded

   Margaret Thatcher was called 'milk snatcher' in 1971 after she cut free milk for over-sevens. [12]

   1. 1977 the scheme begins
   2. Next April the agency that runs it stops
   3. 26 Oct consultation opens
   4. 10 weeks on consultation closes

   Why it matters

   Nicole Williams, a Cardiff parent, says struggling families sometimes rely on school milk for calcium. [12]

   The Welsh government accepts that dairy businesses could lose out, but says the scale is uncertain. [12]

   How it works

   Public finance calls this aid in kind: help given as a thing, and not as money.

   If the scheme ends, milk reaches only children who use school breakfasts or lunches, the Welsh government says. [12]

   Seen it before

   A free snack at a club only reaches the children who turn up at the club.

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Welsh children keep free school milk.

     The consultation runs for 10 weeks from 26 October, and the Welsh government has not chosen between its two options. [12]

   What comes next

   The Welsh consultation opened on 26 October and runs for 10 weeks. [12]

4. 06

   Liverpool traders priced out of Christmas

   What happened

   • Traders say they have been priced out of Liverpool's Christmas market on St George's Plateau. [13]
   • Anthony Grice says he was quoted £12,000 for a stall. [13]
   • Jeweller Alex Healy says her smallest hut would cost about £14,000 to £15,000. [13]
   • Healy has traded at the market since 2021, and will not return this year. [13]
   • Underbelly, a new operator, took over the market this year. [13]
   • Council leader Liam Robinson says Liverpool City Council knew the prices when Underbelly won the contract. [13]

   Who is involved

   • Underbelly new market operator
   • Liam Robinson Liverpool council leader

   How it unfolded

   1. 2021 Healy starts trading
   2. This year she stays away

   Why it matters

   Healy says she does not want to raise prices while her customers feel the cost-of-living squeeze. [13]

   How it works

   Local government calls this a concession: a private firm is paid to run a public event.

   The operator sets stall prices, and the council takes a share of some of the income. [13]

   Seen it before

   A school fair lets one parent run the cake stall, set its prices and hand the school a cut.

   The truth

   • The BBC says it asked Underbelly for comment, and its report carries no reply. [13]
   • Who gains Liverpool City Council — It takes a share of some of the income from the market the new operator runs. [13]
   • Who pays Small traders in Liverpool — Local sellers who cannot risk five-figure stall fees lose a Christmas selling season. [13]
5. 07

   England's rough sleeping rises before Christmas

   What happened

   • England had 8,748 people sleeping rough in June, the highest since November 2025, official figures show. [14]
   • The number rose by nearly 1,000 between January and June. [14]
   • Only 15% of them had been found somewhere to stay by the end of June. [14]
   • Andy Burnham, the UK prime minister, set up a 'national drive to get everyone in for Christmas' in August. [14]
   • Burnham's government added £442m, then a further £432m from March 2027. [14]
   • Minister Florence Eshalomi now says a 'route off the street' may not always be a home. [14]

   Who is involved

   • Andy Burnham UK prime minister

   Why it matters

   A record 135,600 English households lived in temporary housing such as B&Bs at the end of March. [14]

   How it works

   Housing policy sets a ceiling on rent help, called the local housing allowance.

   That allowance has been frozen for years, so rents 'far outstrip' what low earners can claim, councils say. [14]

   Seen it before

   Pocket money that never changes buys less each year as the shop's prices rise.

   The truth

   • Eshalomi calls the freeze a 'big sticking point', and says she raises it with the UK Treasury 'constantly'. [14]
   • Who pays Low earners renting in England — Their rent help is frozen while rents rise, so the gap between the help and the rent keeps widening. [14]
6. 08

   Unions press before UK youth jobs report

   What happened

   • Alan Milburn's report on young people and work is expected next week, the Guardian says. [15]
   • Alan Milburn is a former UK health secretary who was asked to look at young people out of work. [15]
   • About 981,000 young people in the UK are not in work, education or training. [16]
   • Paul Nowak, head of the Trades Union Congress, wants far more money for job support. [15]
   • Ministers expect the report to call for welfare cuts to pay for that support. [15]
   • The UK government says it has already pledged £2.5bn for youth job support. [15]

   Who is involved

   • Alan Milburn former UK health secretary
   • Paul Nowak head of the UK's union body

   How it unfolded

   1. Next week the Guardian's date
   2. Autumn the UK government's date

   Why it matters

   Callum Atkinson, 23, sent '600 or 700' job applications and mostly got AI rejection emails. [16]

   How it works

   Economists call this active labour market policy: spending to move people into work, not just paying benefits.

   Nowak says money for job support would cut the benefits bill by getting young people into work. [15]

   Seen it before

   Paying for extra maths lessons now can cost less than paying for years of retakes.

   The truth

   • Roman Dibden of the charity Breakout fears big firms will win the work behind 'a grassroots badge'. [16]
   • Nobody knows yet

     When the UK youth jobs report comes out.

     The Guardian says next week, while the UK government says only in the autumn. [15]

   Good news

   • Callum Atkinson, 23, from Rochdale, sent 600 or 700 job applications while on universal credit, then a Manchester charity called Breakout arranged mentoring and work placements. He is now studying computer science and artificial intelligence at the University of Salford.

   What comes next

   The Guardian says next week, and the UK government says only 'in the autumn'. [15]

7. 09

   US estate agents' group sees waiting buyers

   What happened

   • US home sales are tracking near 4 million this year, against 5.2 million in 2000. [17]
   • Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, gave that comparison on Friday. [17]
   • He says 'significant' demand is waiting for lower loan rates and better confidence. [17]
   • Months' supply, how long today's listings would last at this sales rate, is the highest since 2015. [17]
   • First-time buyers were 22% of all buyers, near the lowest on record. [17]
   • The typical first-time buyer's age stayed at a record 40. [17]
   • Sellers had stayed a typical 12 years before selling, the longest on record. [17]

   Who is involved

   • Lawrence Yun economist for US estate agents

   Why it matters

   Jessica Lautz, the group's deputy chief economist, says low old loan rates act as 'golden handcuffs'. [17]

   How it works

   Lawrence Yun measures this year's 4 million sales from 5.2 million in 2000, so the year he starts from sets how large the gap looks.

   The idea, in story 02: Why 15% off can still cost more than last year →

   The truth

   • Yun chose 2000 as his yardstick, and the people his group represents earn fees when homes sell. [17]
   • HousingWire says this report was generated by its automation and reviewed by an editor. [17]
8. 10

   Seven Australian homes show their food bills

   What happened

   • Seven Australian households showed the ABC their weekly shop after another interest rate rise. [18]
   • Daniel, father of a toddler and a baby, spends about A$250 a week, his biggest cost after the mortgage. [18]
   • Robyn, a single parent of two boys, keeps to A$150, including a A$15 Foodbank parcel. [18]
   • Kirsty spends almost a quarter of her disability pension on groceries. [18]
   • Udita compares her trolley with what the money once bought, and says 'we would've eaten like kings'. [18]
   • Choice, a consumer group, says its basket of basics keeps rising at all the big supermarkets. [18]

   Why it matters

   The share of income going on essentials grew almost 6% in three years, a national survey found. [18]

   Single parents with children saw a 6.1% rise, the survey found. [18]

   How it works

   Monetary economists call the path from a central bank's rate to a family's spending the transmission mechanism.

   Australia's central bank raises rates so borrowers have less to spend. [18] Daniel, who has a mortgage, has cut out steak. [18]

   Seen it before

   When the bus fare goes up, the sweets money is the first to go.

   Udita's starting number is her own memory: she compares her trolley with what the same money bought a few years ago.

   The idea, in story 02: Why 15% off can still cost more than last year →
9. 11

   Young Australian borrowers stuck in dear loans

   What happened

   • Some Australian home owners cannot switch to a cheaper loan, a trap called 'mortgage prison'. [19]
   • Credit bureau Equifax says switching to another lender fell 8.8% in the year to September. [19]
   • Among borrowers aged 26 to 35, demand to switch fell 14.2%. [19]
   • Among people over 56 it edged up, the bureau says. [19]
   • Canstar, a consumer research firm, says 5.8% of new loans in the quarter skipped the normal test, a record. [19]

   Who is involved

   • Older borrowers switching a little more

   How it unfolded

   Australia's central bank has raised rates 5 times this year, to 18-year highs. [19]

   Why it matters

   Young buyers who borrowed the most are hit hardest, because falling house values add a second barrier. [19]

   How it works

   Banks must use what is called a serviceability buffer: a test rate 3 points above today's. [19]

   That test can now mean proving a borrower could pay about 9.5%. [19] Someone paying today's rate can still fail it. [19]

   Seen it before

   A team trial asks players to run further than a real match needs, and good players can still be cut.

   The truth

   • These figures show falling demand to switch, and do not count people refused. [19]
   • Who gains Older Australian home owners — With more paid off and smaller loans, they can still pass the test to switch to a cheaper lender. [19]
   • Who pays Young Australian borrowers — Falling house values and a higher test rate stop them moving their loan to a cheaper bank. [19]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How many Australian borrowers are stuck in dear loans.

     Equifax counts a fall in people applying to switch, and does not count how many were turned down. [19]

10. 12

    Western Australian towns lose childcare

    What happened

    • Three towns in south-west Western Australia will lose childcare centres. [20]
    • Uplyft, the provider, says Mount Barker and Katanning will close by December because of lease conditions. [20]
    • It says Kojonup will close in the first half of 2027. [20]
    • Across Australia, 152 services closed between 2024 and mid-2026, and 276 more are at risk by July 2027. [20]

    How it unfolded

    1. December two centres close
    2. Early 2027 Kojonup closes

    Why it matters

    Kojonup mechanic Ryan Colman says the alternative is driving 80 kilometres return, twice a day. [20]

    Teacher Julienne Slade says she or her husband will have to work less. [20]

    How it works

    Economists call a place with too few customers to support a provider a thin market.

    Uplyft says losing the other two centres makes a lone service in Kojonup unfeasible. [20]

    Seen it before

    A village bus stops running when too few people ride it.

    The truth

    • The Australian Childcare Alliance blames inflation and running costs, while Uplyft names lease conditions for these closures. [20]
    • Who pays Parents in Kojonup and nearby towns — Losing the only local centre means long drives or one parent working less. [20]
11. 13

    Unpaid Bathla staff wait on a safety net

    What happened

    • Former staff of Bathla, a collapsed Sydney property developer, are still waiting for unpaid wages. [21]
    • Stormwater engineer Jagdeep Singh estimates he is owed A$80,000. [21]
    • Teneo, the firm handling the collapse, says the group lacks funds to pay for at least 6 to 12 months. [21]
    • The Fair Entitlements Guarantee, a government scheme, normally pays only once a company is liquidated. [21]
    • Teneo hopes early access will be approved by the beginning of December. [21]

    How it unfolded

    1. Now staff wait
    2. Early December early access hoped for

    Why it matters

    Workers on temporary visas cannot use that scheme at all. [21]

    How it works

    Insolvency law ranks who is paid first when a company fails.

    Bathla's staff rank above ordinary unsecured creditors, but they can only share the money that exists. [21]

    Seen it before

    Being first in the tuck shop queue does not help once the shelves are empty.

    The truth

    • Teneo blames paper contracts and an 'outdated' payroll system. [21] Insolvency expert Jason Harris suspects missing money or information. [21]
    • Who pays Temporary visa workers at Bathla — They are shut out of the Australian government's safety net, so what they recover depends only on the company's leftover money. [21]
    • Nobody knows yet

      When former Bathla staff will be paid.

      The administrators hope for early access to the safety net by the beginning of December, but approval has not been given. [21]

12. 14

    Pakistan raises its youth loan limit

    What happened

    • Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, raised the personal loan limit under the youth loan schemes on Sunday. [22]
    • The limit goes from Rs7.5 million to Rs25 million. [22]
    • The minimum age falls from 21 to 18. [22]
    • Since January 2023, 581,341 young people have borrowed about Rs313.9 billion. [22]
    • Pakistan's government expects to lend Rs292 billion to 266,700 people this financial year. [22]

    Why it matters

    The change lets 18-year-olds starting firms or farms apply, three years earlier than before. [22]

    How it works

    Development economists call this directed credit: a state steering loans towards chosen groups.

    Sharif ordered that 30% of the loans go to women. [22]

    Seen it before

    A school can spend its sports money on the netball team first, to get more girls playing.

    The truth

    • The figures come from the prime minister's office, and the report gives no repayment rate. [22]
    • Who gains Pakistanis aged 18 to 20 — They can now apply for the state youth loans, which were closed to them under the old age limit. [22]
13. 15

    Democrats plan student-loan hearings in the US

    What happened

    • Democrats, who won both houses of the US Congress, plan hearings on student loans. [23]
    • Senator Ed Markey said Education Secretary Linda McMahon would answer questions 'under oath'. [23]
    • A new repayment system took effect in July, and borrowers report wrong bills and stalled debt relief. [23]
    • The US Education Department has cut staff and reduced its checks on loan companies. [23]
    • The Government Accountability Office, a US watchdog, found it had stopped checking those firms' call quality and accuracy. [23]

    How it unfolded

    1. July new repayment system starts
    2. Since wrong bills reported

    Why it matters

    Student Defense, a borrowers' legal group, says millions were moved to plans with higher bills. [23]

    Forced collection of defaulted loans has also restarted, the group says. [23]

    How it works

    Political scientists call this oversight: an elected body questioning the officials who run a programme.

    Lawmakers can hold hearings, and can order the department to hand over documents. [23]

    Seen it before

    A head teacher can call in a class teacher and ask to see the marking.

    The truth

    • The department says it has 'unlocked new, affordable higher education pathways', while borrowers report errors. [23]