US heating oil averages $5.91 a gallon, up 59% in a year, and Maine's bigger heating grants buy fewer gallons

The stories

7 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   US heating oil averages $5.91 a gallon, up 59% in a year, and Maine's bigger heating grants buy fewer gallons

   $5.91

   the average US price of a gallon of heating oil on 9 November

   up 59%, or $2.19, in a year [1]

   $750

   AVEC's average heating grant in Maine this winter

   up from about $550, yet it buys less oil [1]

   4.1 million

   US households that heat mainly with oil

   3.4 million of them in the Northeast [1]

   $4 billion

   LIHEAP's money for heating help this year

   it helps nearly 6 million US households [4]

   What happened

   • Heating oil in the US averaged $5.91 a gallon on 9 November. [1] That is $2.19, or 59%, more than a year earlier. [1]
   • About 50% of homes in Maine heat with oil. [1] A gallon there costs about 75% more than a year ago. [1]
   • About 4.1 million US households heat mainly with oil, and 3.4 million of them are in the Northeast. [1]
   • Heating oil and diesel are generally the same product, an oil consultant told CNBC. [2]
   • Wars in Iran and Ukraine have squeezed supply. [1] Low stocks and too few refineries add to it, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found. [1]
   • New England held 2.46 million barrels of this fuel in mid-October, 34% less than a year before. [7]
   • In October the EIA forecast that a home heated by oil will spend $2,115 this winter, about 21% more. [1]
   • A home on gas is forecast to spend $640, down 9%, and one on electricity $1,196, up 4%. [1]
   • For Maine, the aid directors' group put this winter's average heating bill at nearly $3,000, NPR reported. [8]
   • LIHEAP, a US government programme run by the health department, helps low-income homes pay heating bills. [1]
   • Maine and tribal groups there got about $38 million from it in October. [1] AVEC, a nonprofit agency in Presque Isle, Maine, hands out about $4 million of that. [1]
   • AVEC's average grant is about $750 a household this winter, up from about $550 a year ago. [1]
   • Jason Parent, AVEC's chief, says: "That $750 is going less far than the $550 did last season." [1]
   • AVEC's emergency fuel line opened on 2 November. [1] In its first hour it got 150 voicemails, Parent says. [1]
   • Catherine Lafleche, 65, cares for two grandchildren and lives mostly on about $1,100 a month. [1]
   • She ran out of heating oil in early October and burned cardboard boxes in a small wood stove. [1]
   • In Maine, ordering at least 100 gallons avoids a surcharge. [1] At today's prices, 100 gallons cost about $600. [1]
   • The US government released about $3.63 billion of LIHEAP money on 9 October. [1] That is 90% of the roughly $4 billion the current stopgap budget provides. [1]
   • The rest waits until the US Congress passes a full-year budget or another stopgap. [1] If it does neither by 11 December, a federal shutdown begins. [1]
   • On 4 November the US Energy Department said it would release 300,000 barrels from its Northeast heating oil reserve. [1]
   • In October it had offered to lend up to 315,000 barrels, which firms must give back before next winter. [3]
   • That loan is about 13.2 million gallons. [7] Connecticut alone burns 400 million to 500 million gallons a year, a fuel trade group head says. [7]

   $ this winter

   Oil2,115

   Electricity1,196

   Gas640

   Who is involved

   • LIHEAP the US government programme that helps low-income homes pay heating bills; about $4 billion this year
   • Catherine Lafleche, 65 lives on about $1,100 a month
   • AVEC Community Action a nonprofit agency in Presque Isle, Maine, that hands out heating aid; its chief is Jason Parent
   • The US Congress the US parliament; only it can add money to LIHEAP, and its budget deadline is 11 December
   • The US Energy Department the US government department for energy; it runs the Northeast's emergency heating oil store and is releasing 300,000 barrels

   How it unfolded

   1. 9 Oct 90% of the money sent
   2. 11 Dec the US budget deadline [1]
   3. 11 Dec the US budget deadline
   4. Jan to Feb crisis time again, Parent says
   5. 9 Oct $3.63 billion of heating aid sent to the states [1]
   6. 14 Oct House members ask for $3 billion more [1]
   7. 2 Nov AVEC's emergency line opens: 150 voicemails in an hour [1]
   8. 4 Nov the Energy Department says it will release 300,000 barrels [1]
   9. 9 Nov heating oil averages $5.91 a gallon, up 59% [1]

   Why it matters

   More than 1 million low-income US households heat with oil, says Mark Wolfe of the state heating-aid directors' group. [5]

   Many working families earn too much to qualify for help but still struggle with energy bills, Wolfe writes. [9]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why can't families just use less oil?

      Unlike petrol, heating oil keeps a home warm, so families cannot simply stop filling the tank, Wolfe writes. [9]

      The price rises→The house still needs heat→The tank still gets filled
   2. 2

      Then who gets help to pay?

      In Maine, a family of four earning under $73,213 a year can qualify. [6] The programme there helps 35,000 to 40,000 households a year. [6]

      $73,213the most a Maine family of four can earn and qualify

   3. 3

      Why doesn't the help grow when oil costs more?

      LIHEAP has roughly $4 billion this year, and adding to it needs the US Congress's approval, Grist reports. [5]

   4. 4

      How far does the money go?

      About $4 billion helps nearly 6 million US households, the New York Times reported. [4] Lawmakers have asked for $3 billion more this year. [1]

      This year's sum$4 billion

      Extra asked for$3 billion
   5. 5

      Is all US help paid this way?

      No: food aid has let eligible families who apply get it, a policy analyst told NPR. [10] Heating aid can run out even for families who qualify, CNBC reports. [1]

   6. 6

      So what is really going on?

      Only the US Congress can add aid money, and its next deadline is 11 December. [1][5] Until then, each price rise shrinks the heat a grant buys. [6]

   How it works

   Economists call it purchasing power: how much a sum of money buys at today's prices.

   Heating aid is paid in dollars, not gallons, a Massachusetts oil dealer says. [6] So when Maine's gallon rose about 75%, the bigger grant bought fewer gallons. [1]

   Seen it before

   A gift card buys fewer snacks once the shop puts its prices up.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Heating oil in the US costs 59% more than a year ago, and LIHEAP, the main US help with heating bills, is a set sum of about $4 billion that only the US Congress can raise. [1][5]Until it votes, each grant buys less oil, so families in Maine get less heat from bigger grants. [1][6]
   • Why it works on people A bigger grant, $750 instead of $550, sounds like more help, even though it buys less oil. [1]
   • The EIA expects oil-heated homes to pay about 21% more this winter. [2] The heating-aid directors' group expected about 50% more, or $2,627. [2]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US Congress adds the $3 billion lawmakers asked for.

     House members asked in October, and CNBC reports it is uncertain whether any budget bill will take it up. [1]

   • Nobody knows yet

     How much the reserve oil will lower prices.

     An economist at the University of Maine says nobody knows, because it depends on whether dealers sell it in one month or over the whole winter. [1]

   Good news

   • A charity donation then paid for 100 gallons of oil for Lafleche. [1] She said: "When the oil man came, I cried." [1]

   What comes next

   Parent says it will be "crisis time again in January or February". [1]

1. 02

   Australian childcare centres fail at a record rate

   What happened

   • Data from Australia's company regulator shows 58 childcare centres collapsed between 1 July and 11 October. [11]
   • That is more than the 35 that failed in the whole of the year before. [11]
   • Of the 210 childcare companies that failed since 2021, only 4 were not privately owned. [11]
   • G8 Education, Australia's largest listed childcare provider, has suspended 40 weak centres that are not expected to reopen. [11]

   The whole year before35 centres

   Since 1 July58 centres

   How it unfolded

   Majority Capital Partners, a new firm, has offered 26 cents a share for G8. [11] Its shares fell from 70 cents early this year to a low of 10 cents. [11]

   Why it matters

   Some towns now have no childcare and others too much, says The Front Project, a childcare think tank. [11]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why build centres where they are not needed?

      Its chief, Caroline Croser-Barlow, says a centre's size and place come down to what it costs to build. [11]

      Building cost decides→Size and place→Children's needs barely count
   2. 2

      So who carries the risk when one fails?

      Not the people who built it: the risk ends up with providers, families and governments, Croser-Barlow says. [11]

   3. 3

      Who wants that changed?

      The Parenthood, a parents' campaign group, wants childcare planned by what each community needs, as schools are. [11]

   How it works

   Economists call this a split incentive: the one who makes a choice is not the one who pays for it.

   Developers gain from building and leasing a centre, says Michael Traill, a social investment fund's chair. [11] The operator signs the lease and carries the loss if too few children come. [11]

   Seen it before

   A friend picks the restaurant and you pay, so the friend has little reason to pick a cheap one.

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Majority Capital's 26-cent offer for G8 Education becomes a firm bid.

     The offer is subject to further checks of G8's books. [11]

1. 03

   Lambie wants childcare help tested on income

   What happened

   • Jacqui Lambie, an independent senator from Tasmania, says Australia should means-test childcare and electric car subsidies. [12] That means paying them by income. [12]
   • She gave the example of a couple earning A$500,000 between them. [12] She asked why they are not means-tested. [12]
   • The pressure on him includes stubborn price rises and a 5th interest rate rise this year. [12]
   • Lambie also wants a 20% tax on gas sold abroad. [12] Australia's government has rejected such a tax, citing trade ties with Asian buyers. [12]

   Who is involved

   • Jacqui Lambie wants help paid by income

   How it unfolded

   Australia's treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is looking for savings before the budget update due in December. [12]

   1. Now savings sought
   2. December the budget update

   Why it matters

   If adopted, families on high incomes would get less childcare help than now. [12]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why aim at childcare help?

      Lambie said: "We've got to target better in this country." [12]

   2. 2

      Is she worried about people who are struggling?

      Yes: she says her voters are under the worst strain since the pandemic. [12] Some steal meat to feed their children, she says. [12]

   How it works

   Public finance calls this means testing: help is set by income, instead of being the same for everyone.

   Under her plan, a couple on A$500,000 would get a smaller rebate. [12] That leaves more of the money for those who need it most, she argues. [12]

   Seen it before

   A cinema charges children and pensioners less than other adults for the same seat.

   Why qualifying for help does not mean getting it

   Public finance splits help in two: an entitlement pays everyone who qualifies, while a fixed yearly sum pays only until the money runs out.

   The twist

   When the sum is fixed, a rise in prices shrinks each family's help, and nothing changes until lawmakers vote again.

   The picture

   Food aid (SNAP)all who qualify

   vsvs

   Heating aid (LIHEAP)until it runs out

   Step by step

   1. 1 Lawmakers set one sum for the year
   2. 2 States share it out as dollar grants
   3. 3 Prices or need rise, the sum stays put
   4. 4 Each family gets less, or some get none
   5. 5 Only a new vote adds money

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Grounded flyers count the cost of hotels

     The refund is a rule owed to every passenger on a cancelled flight, so all of them get it. A hotel is owed only for the airline's own faults, so the Richardsons pay $300 a night.

   • Lambie wants childcare help tested on income

     Lambie would cut what childcare help costs by changing who gets the full amount, through an income test, not by setting a smaller sum.

   Where you've seen this

   School places

   a school with a set number of seats admits pupils until it is full, however many apply

   State pensions

   a pension paid to everyone who meets the rules costs more each year as more people retire

   Food banks

   a food bank gives out what was donated, and shuts the doors when the shelves are empty

   The catch

   An entitlement can still be cut, by changing who qualifies or how much each person gets.

   And the whole of it

   The grandmother in Maine, the agency answering 150 calls in an hour and the lawmakers who set the sum each see one part of this. Anyone who relies on help, from an employer or a government, sits inside an arrangement like it, usually without seeing the size of the sum.

   What comes next

   Parliament now sits for the final two weeks of the year. [12]

1. 04

   Grounded flyers count the cost of hotels

   What happened

   • About 1.5 million travellers had their flights upended on Friday 13 November, flight data firm Cirium estimates. [13]
   • Nearly 9,500 flights were cancelled or did not take off on Friday and Saturday, nearly 20% of those scheduled. [15]
   • The Federal Aviation Administration, which runs US air traffic control, stopped all departures for about 5 hours. [16]
   • US rules give a full refund to any passenger whose flight is cancelled and who chooses not to travel. [13]
   • But airlines need not pay for hotels or meals when the cause is outside their control, as here. [15]
   • Morgane Richardson's family of five waited at Orlando's airport until 3am. [14] Getting home to Albany, New York, will take 3 extra days. [14]
   • Their hotel costs $300 a night, and Richardson's wife is missing paid work. [14]

   Who is involved

   • The Richardsons 3 extra days from home

   Why it matters

   Nearly 29 million people are expected to fly on US airlines from 20 to 30 November, over Thanksgiving. [16]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      So who pays for the extra nights?

      The traveller, unless travel insurance or a credit card's trip cover pays some of it, NerdWallet reports. [13]

      Flight cancelled→Airline returns the fare→Hotel falls to the traveller or insurer
   2. 2

      Will it be sorted before the holiday rush?

      Officials expect normal service before then. [16] US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said: "It is going to take us some time to unwind what has happened." [16]

   How it works

   US rules call an air traffic failure an "uncontrollable" disruption, which decides what an airline owes. [15]

   A crew or repair delay is the airline's own doing, so its published promises of meals and hotels apply. [15] An air traffic failure is not. [15]

   Seen it before

   A shop must refund a broken toaster, but not the bread you could not toast.

   The refund is a rule owed to every passenger on a cancelled flight, so all of them get it. A hotel is owed only for the airline's own faults, so the Richardsons pay $300 a night.

   The idea, in story 03: Why qualifying for help does not mean getting it →
2. 05

   DraftKings closes a reporter's betting account

   What happened

   • DraftKings, a big US sports betting app, closed the account of ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson in late October. [17]
   • DraftKings made him a VIP with a personal host after about $6,000 of losses in 3 weeks. [17]
   • On 27 October he sent the company questions. [17] That evening it closed his account "at DraftKings' discretion". [17]
   • It then mailed him a cheque for 94 cents, his remaining balance. [17]

   Who is involved

   • DraftKings closed the account
   • Jake Pearson, ProPublica reported on its methods

   How it unfolded

   ProPublica is a US investigative newsroom. [17] In September Pearson published a story for which he bet like a problem gambler for 10 weeks. [17]

   1. September the investigation
   2. 27 Oct the account is closed

   Why it matters

   Regulators across the US now cite his work as they look at how betting apps keep users betting. [17]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Did DraftKings think it had handled him badly?

      No: its chief, Jason Robins, said on 22 October he was "pretty proud of how we handled it". [17]

   2. 2

      So what changed?

      A video of the investigation passed 6 million views in 3 weeks, and officials began demanding answers, Pearson writes. [17]

      6 millionviews of the investigation's video

   How it works

   The betting industry calls its limits and warnings "responsible gaming". [17]

   DraftKings sent Pearson about 30 such messages in 10 weeks. [17] It also made him a VIP. [17]

   Seen it before

   A sweet shop puts a sugar warning by the till, then hands its best customers free sweets.

   The truth

   • DraftKings denies that it improperly targets losing gamblers. [17]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Why DraftKings closed Jake Pearson's account.

     DraftKings did not respond when he asked. [17]

   Good news

   • In Ohio, regulators have proposed a rule to limit how sports betting apps market themselves, after ProPublica's investigation of DraftKings.
3. 06

   US sellers cut prices on 1 in 5 homes

   What happened

   • In October, 20.5% of US home listings had a price cut, the most for an October since 2022, Realtor.com says. [18]
   • Salt Lake City led at 31.8%, then Indianapolis at 31.7% and Denver at 30.9%. [18]
   • Cuts were rarest in New York City, at 12.6%. [18]
   • Pending sales fell 10.5% from a year earlier in October, and contract signings fell 17%. [18]
   • Mortgage rates rose last week from 7.17% to 7.50% on HousingWire's tracker. [19]
   • Homes for sale fell to 895,988 in the week to 13 November, the usual winter dip, HousingWire says. [19]

   % of listings cut

   Salt Lake City31.8

   Indianapolis31.7

   Denver30.9

   New York City12.6

   Why it matters

   Sellers in 12 of the 50 biggest US metro areas cut a quarter or more of their listings. [18]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why do Salt Lake City buyers wait for a cut?

      A local agent, Joel Carson, says buyers there avoid low offers, so they wait for the seller to cut first. [18]

      Buyers won't offer low→Sellers cut the price→Then the offers come
   2. 2

      Does a big cut work?

      Carson cut one house from $345,000 to $320,000 last week and got 2 offers. [18]

      $345,000Asking price

      ↓→

      $320,000After the cut

   How it works

   Economists call this a buyer's market: more homes for sale than ready buyers, so sellers compete by asking less.

   With rates at 7.50%, fewer buyers sign. [19] So more sellers cut, and contract signings were down 17% in October. [18]

   Seen it before

   On the last hour of a market day, stallholders cut prices because few shoppers are left.

4. 07

   A $75,000 AI school misses its own goal

   What happened

   • Alpha School, a chain of US private schools that teach with AI apps, charges parents up to $75,000 a year. [20]
   • It promises children will learn twice as much as their peers in 2 hours of lessons a day. [20]
   • Only 42% of its students met its goal of learning twice as fast in both maths and reading. [20]
   • The figures come from Alpha's own data, first reported by the New York Times. [20]
   • About half of its pupils up to eighth grade missed the maths goal. [20] About 1 in 5 missed the reading goal. [20]
   • Alpha has about 1,500 pupils on roughly 50 campuses, the Times counted. [20]

   Why it matters

   Its software is now moving into public schools, where districts hope to fit more learning into less time. [20]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Who is backing it?

      Backers include tech investors and US Education Secretary Linda McMahon, who praised it in September 2025. [20]

   2. 2

      What do other studies say about AI and learning?

      A study of 26,811 pupils in China found homework scores rose 18% with AI tools. [20] Closed-book exam scores fell 20%. [20]

      up 18%Homework

      vsvs

      down 20%Closed-book exams

   How it works

   Economists call this a credence good: something whose quality a buyer cannot easily judge, even after paying.

   Parents cannot easily see whether a child learns twice as fast. [20] So they rely on Alpha's promise until its own data come out. [20]

   Seen it before

   You cannot tell whether a mechanic really had to replace a part, so you go on what they say.

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Alpha's results hold up in public schools.

     Districts are adopting its software, but the data reported cover its private campuses. [20]