NASA's Swift telescope is due to fall to Earth today, and NASA puts the chance its pieces hurt anyone at 1 in 2,100

The stories

9 stories on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   NASA's Swift telescope is due to fall to Earth today, and NASA puts the chance its pieces hurt anyone at 1 in 2,100

   1 in 2,100

   chance that Swift's falling pieces hurt anyone, NASA says

   most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up [1]

   22 years

   of work from a telescope built to last 2

   launched on a Delta II rocket in 2004 [1][2]

   7,000

   scientific papers that cite Swift's readings

   its archive holds 12 terabytes of data [1]

   What happened

   • NASA's Swift telescope was due to fall back into Earth's air early on Wednesday 4 November. [1]
   • The US Space Force predicted about 08:30 UTC. [1] NASA gave the time as give or take 11 hours. [3]
   • NASA says the chance that its falling pieces hurt anyone is about 1 in 2,100. [1]
   • Swift is a NASA space telescope, launched in 2004 to study gamma-ray bursts. [2] These are the most powerful explosions in the universe. [2]
   • It was built to work for 2 years and kept going for almost 22. [1]
   • Swift could turn its telescopes onto a new burst in about 1 minute. [1] Hubble takes at least 1 or 2 days. [1]
   • Its 12 terabytes of readings are cited in about 7,000 scientific papers. [1]
   • Swift has no engine, so it cannot climb back up. [1]
   • Thin air at its height still slows it. [1] Each slower lap drops it into thicker air, which slows it faster. [1]
   • The Sun swells the upper air when it is active, and this cycle caused more drag than expected, NASA said. [1]
   • Swift made its last observation on 20 October, 171 miles up, and its mission was ended. [1]
   • Any surviving pieces must land between 20.6 degrees north and 20.6 degrees south of the equator. [2][3]
   • That band is mostly ocean. [1] It also crosses parts of Mexico, South America, Africa and India. [4]
   • Most of the 1,450 kg spacecraft will burn up, but some parts are expected to survive. [1][4]
   • It will hit the air at about 17,000 mph. [1]
   • The Aerospace Corporation, a non-profit that tracks objects in orbit, later predicted 10:19 UTC, give or take 2 hours. [4]

   Who is involved

   • Swift a NASA telescope for gamma-ray bursts
   • NASA the US space agency; it ran Swift and put the chance of harm at about 1 in 2,100
   • US Space Force the US military's space branch; it predicted when Swift would fall
   • The Aerospace Corporation a non-profit that tracks objects in orbit; its later forecast narrowed the time to 2 hours either way
   • Katalyst Space Technologies an Arizona company NASA paid $30 million to rescue Swift; its craft lost control

   How it unfolded

   NASA paid Katalyst $30 million to grab Swift and push it higher, but the rescue craft lost control. [1]

   1. 2004 Swift is launched
   2. 4 Nov Swift is due to fall into the air [1]
   3. Nov 2004 Swift launches on a two-year mission [4]
   4. 3 Jul 2026 Katalyst's rescue craft launches [1]
   5. 19 Aug NASA calls off the rescue [1]
   6. 20 Oct Swift makes its last observation [1]

   Why it matters

   Astronomers lose the telescope that reacted first to sudden flashes in the sky. [1] NASA has named no replacement. [1]

   NASA says only that its current missions will fill the gap. [1]

   How it works

   Safety engineers judge a falling satellite by its casualty risk: the chance its pieces hurt anyone at all. [1]

   Two things keep Swift's risk small: most of it burns up, and most of the band below it is ocean. [1]

   Seen it before

   A ball kicked blind over a hedge rarely hits anyone, because most of the field beyond is empty grass.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Swift is falling because it has no engine and its one rescue craft failed, so NASA can only watch it come down and give the chance of harm. [1]
   • Live Science compared 1 in 2,100 with the 1 in 15,300 lifetime chance of a person being struck by lightning. [4]
   • Those are not alike: NASA's 1 in 2,100 is the chance that anyone at all is hurt. [1]
   • Who pays Astronomers who chase sudden flashes — They lose a telescope that turned to a burst in about 1 minute, where Hubble needs 1 or 2 days. [1]
   • Who pays People living under Swift's path — Any surviving pieces land somewhere in the band between 20.6 degrees north and south, which takes in land where people live. [2][4]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Exactly when and where Swift came down.

     NASA's window was 11 hours either side of its time, and the Aerospace Corporation's later one 2 hours; neither named a place. [3][4]

   • Nobody knows yet

     What takes over Swift's job of reacting first to sudden flashes.

     NASA has named no successor and says only that current missions will fill the gap. [1]

   Good news

   • Swift was built to work for 2 years and kept working for almost 22. Its readings are cited in about 7,000 scientific papers.

   What comes next

   NASA and the Space Force said they would keep updating the prediction until Swift comes down. [1]

1. 02

   Isaacman says Hubble must not fall uncontrolled

   What happened

   • NASA's chief, Jared Isaacman, told the news site NASASpaceflight: 'Hubble, you can't let it have an uncontrolled re-entry.' [6]
   • Hubble is a space telescope launched in 1990. [5] Shuttle astronauts repaired it 5 times, last in 2009. [5]
   • Hubble now runs on 1 gyroscope, a spinning part it uses to turn and hold steady. [6] That cut its observing time by about 12%. [6]
   • Without a push, the air will bring Hubble down in 2033 or 2034. [5] Any visit would have to fly in 2032. [5]
   • If money is spent on a visit, it should lift Hubble for more science, Isaacman said. [6]

   How it unfolded

   On 29 October NASA asked companies how they could lift, repair or safely bring down Hubble. [5]

   1. 1990 Hubble launches
   2. 2009 the last repair visit
   3. 2032 last chance for a visit
   4. 2033 or 2034 Hubble falls

   Why it matters

   Astronomers still ask for about 7 times more Hubble time than there is each year, NASA said. [5]

   How it works

   Engineers call the safe ending a controlled re-entry, and NASA's request asks for it as one choice. [6]

   Hubble has no engine, but a 2009 shuttle crew fitted a ring a visiting craft could grab to steer it. [6]

   Seen it before

   A tug boat steers a ship with no engine of its own into the right spot in the harbour.

   Why a dead satellite's landing spot stays unknown until its last hours

   Nobody knows the exact hour a satellite with no engine will fall, and in one hour it crosses a huge stretch of the Earth.

   The twist

   Nobody can name the spot because nobody knows the hour, and at 17,000 mph a single hour carries Swift across a huge stretch of the Earth.

   The picture

   11 hoursNASA's window

   vsvs

   2 hoursAerospace's later window

   Step by step

   1. 1 In astrodynamics, the study of how craft move in orbit, a satellite with no engine is slowed by thin air on every lap
   2. 2 How thick that air is depends on the Sun, so the hour it drops is only roughly known
   3. 3 At 17,000 mph, every hour of doubt is a long stretch of the planet
   4. 4 Only the band under its path is sure, set by the tilt of its orbit
   5. 5 Trackers call their forecast a re-entry prediction, and its time window shrinks as the fall nears, so the spot is known only near the end
   6. 6 An engine changes this: a last push picks the time, and so the place

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Isaacman says Hubble must not fall uncontrolled

     Hubble is slowed by the same thin air, and with no engine its end would be just as hard to place, so NASA wants a visiting craft to lift it or steer it down.

   • Tumbleweed raises money for a return capsule

     Oasis Beta is built to come back through the air on purpose, the opposite of Swift, whose fall is set by drag and the Sun.

   Where you've seen this

   Hurricane forecasts

   the cone of possible paths narrows only as the storm nears land

   A parcel delivery window

   a two-hour slot means the van could be on any of many streets

   Asteroid warnings

   a rock's path known only roughly gives a long strip where it might hit

   The catch

   The band is known from the start, because the tilt of the orbit does not change; only the spot along the band waits for the last hours.

   And the whole of it

   People across the band under Swift's path, from Mexico and the Caribbean to India and Africa, carry its small risk, and none of them were asked. Whether a satellite carries an engine to steer its own end was decided years earlier, by builders and budget-setters far from that band.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Isaacman says Hubble must not end the same way, but so far NASA has only asked companies for ideas, with replies due at the end of November. [6]
   • Who gains Companies that build craft to repair or move satellites — NASA's request asks them for ways to lift, repair or steer down Hubble. [5]
   • Who pays Astronomers using Hubble — Running on 1 gyroscope has cut its observing time by about 12%. [6]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether any company offers a way to save Hubble before 2032, and who would pay.

     NASA's request only asks for ideas, and replies are not due until the end of November. [6][5]

   What comes next

   Replies to NASA's request are due by the end of November. [6]

1. 03

   Democrats win the US Congress, and NASA's budget

   What happened

   • Democrats won control of both houses of the US Congress in the 3 November midterm elections. [8]
   • The US Congress, the country's law-making body, sets the yearly budget of NASA, the US space agency. [7]
   • Payload, a space news site, wrote before the vote that Democratic control would not change NASA's total much. [7]
   • Less clear is Golden Dome, a US military space plan paid for outside the normal budget. [7] Democrats are unlikely to keep that up, Payload said. [7]
   • In Texas, Democrat James Talarico won the Senate seat, beating Republican Ken Paxton. [9]
   • Texas is home to NASA's Johnson Space Center and SpaceX's Starbase rocket site. [7]
   • Elon Musk, who runs SpaceX, spent at least $212 million backing Paxton, Al Jazeera reported. [9]

   Who is involved

   • House of Representatives won by Democrats
   • Senate won by Democrats
   • James Talarico Democrat, won
   • Ken Paxton Republican, lost

   Why it matters

   The new US Congress will likely be in office when NASA aims to land astronauts on the Moon, around 2028. [7]

   How it works

   Both US parties have used the power of the purse to give NASA more than the Trump administration asked. [7]

   That is why Payload expected little change to NASA's total under Democrats. [7]

   Seen it before

   At home, the parent who pays decides what gets bought, however loudly anyone else asks.

   The truth

   • Who gains Democrats in the US Congress — Control of both houses gives them the power to block the president's plans and to open investigations. [8]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What a Democratic US Congress does with the money for Golden Dome.

     It has been paid for outside the normal budget, and Payload calls its future under Democrats unclear. [7]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Democrats investigate Elon Musk's time running the government's cost-cutting office.

     Al Jazeera reported that Democrats were expected to if they won the US Congress, and they have won it. [9][8]

2. 04

   A start-up bets on water as rocket fuel

   What happened

   • Argo Space, a Californian start-up, is building spacecraft that run on water instead of normal rocket fuel. [11]
   • 3 brothers who worked at SpaceX founded it in 2022. [11] It has raised $20 million and has fewer than 30 staff. [11]
   • Its first craft, Navigator, flew in July, but 1 of its 2 solar panels failed to open. [11]
   • With too little power its battery drained, so the engine was never tested. [11]
   • Its next craft, Chiron, weighs about 200 kg and flies twice in 2027 for an unnamed national security customer. [11]
   • Neither flight will ride on SpaceX's Falcon 9. [11] For the first, no shared ride was free in time. [11]
   • 'There's not launches available for sale,' said Robert Carlisle, one of the founders. [11]

   Why it matters

   Water is found on the Moon, so Argo hopes one day to refuel craft from there, not from Earth. [11]

   How it works

   Chemists call it electrolysis: Chiron uses solar power to split its water into hydrogen and oxygen. [11]

   It burns the 2 gases in a small engine, so the water can wait in a simple tank. [11]

   Seen it before

   In a school lab, electricity passed through water makes bubbles of gas rise from two wires.

   The truth

   • Argo says Chiron can change its speed by more than 2 km a second. [11] Its engine has not yet run in space. [11]
   • Who gains New rocket companies with seats to sell — Argo booked an unnamed new rocket because no Falcon 9 shared ride was free within its schedule. [11]
   • Who pays Small space companies waiting for a ride — Argo's founder said a shared Falcon 9 ride means a wait of a year and a half to two years. [11]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Which rocket carries Argo Space's first Chiron craft.

     Argo says only that it is a new commercial rocket, and has not named it. [11]

3. 05

   SoftBank signs for airships as phone masts

   What happened

   • Sceye, a company that builds and flies high-altitude airships, signed a 5-year deal with SoftBank, a Japanese phone company. [13]
   • The airships float about 20 km up, in the stratosphere, and work as phone masts in the sky. [13]
   • The deal builds to a fleet of at least 40 over Japan. [13] Sceye will own and fly them, and sell SoftBank the service. [13]
   • In September a test craft flew for 30 days, from New Mexico to Japan and back. [13]
   • It carried texts, calls and video straight to ordinary phones. [13]

   Who is involved

   • Sceye builds and flies the airships
   • SoftBank buys the service

   How it unfolded

   SoftBank put $15 million into Sceye in 2025. [13]

   Why it matters

   Sceye's airships climb to their height in under 30 minutes with lifting gas, so they need no rocket. [13]

   How it works

   Economists call this a substitute: Sceye pitches its airships as a way round scarce rocket rides. [13]

   Seen it before

   When the cinema is sold out, people stream the same film at home instead.

   The truth

   • Sceye wants single airships to stay up 6 months or more. [13] Its longest flight so far is 30 days. [13]
   • Who gains Sceye — It will own the airships and sell SoftBank the service, so it is paid for a service over 5 years rather than for craft sold once. [13]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Sceye's airships can stay up long enough for a real phone network.

     Its longest flight so far is 30 days, and it wants single craft to stay up 6 months or more. [13]

4. 06

   Tumbleweed raises money for a return capsule

   What happened

   • Tumbleweed, a start-up in Vienna, raised 6.9 million euros to build its own small re-entry capsule. [12]
   • A re-entry capsule is a craft built to come back through the air from orbit. [12] Tumbleweed's, Oasis Beta, should fly from 2028. [12]
   • Tumbleweed sells room on its craft for experiments that need near-weightless conditions. [12]
   • Its first craft, Oasis Alpha, flew in July and carried experiments for 4 customers. [12]
   • Pact VC, an investment firm, led the round. [12] Tumbleweed has 3 flights booked in 2027. [12]

   How it unfolded

   1. 2027 3 flights booked
   2. 2028 Oasis Beta flies

   Why it matters

   More customers want weightless conditions without building their own satellite, Tumbleweed says. [12]

   How it works

   Business schools call this vertical integration: Tumbleweed is building Oasis Beta to own more of the chain of work. [12]

   It is still talking to other capsule makers, but says owning one makes the trip easier for customers. [12]

   Seen it before

   A bakery that buys its own van stops waiting for the courier to turn up.

   Oasis Beta is built to come back through the air on purpose, the opposite of Swift, whose fall is set by drag and the Sun.

   The idea, in story 02: Why a dead satellite's landing spot stays unknown until its last hours →
5. 07

   CERN sees the smallest scale yet measured

   What happened

   • Physicists working at CERN, Europe's particle physics lab, picked up signals at the smallest scale ever explored. [14]
   • That scale is a billionth of a trillionth of a metre, about 100 billion times smaller than an atom. [14]
   • The team, led from Cambridge, used the Large Hadron Collider, a machine that smashes particles together. [14]
   • They watched beauty quarks, tiny particles that last 1.5 trillionths of a second before breaking apart. [14]
   • The 28 countries in the project agreed a 150 million pound upgrade to the detector. [14]

   How it unfolded

   UK Research and Innovation, the British government's research funder, pulled its share of that money last year. [14]

   Why it matters

   Dark matter makes up much of the universe but has never been seen. [14] Some theories say it could show up at this scale. [14]

   How it works

   Physicists call this an indirect search: hunting dark matter through its effect on other particles. [14]

   If dark matter is there, it could change how beauty quarks break apart, so the team counts those breakdowns. [14]

   Seen it before

   You can tell a magnet is under the table when the paper clips on top start to move.

   The truth

   • Tim Gershon, who leads the project's team, said the UK's full part in it is now in doubt. [14]
   • The UK funder says it still pays CERN about 175 million pounds a year. [14]
   • Who pays Young physicists in Britain — Mary Richardson-Slipper, on the team that made the find, said she is looking at jobs abroad after the cuts. [14]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the UK stays a full part of CERN's detector upgrade.

     Its research funder pulled its share of the money, and the project's leader says the UK's part is in doubt. [14]

   Good news

   • Physicists at CERN picked up signals at a billionth of a trillionth of a metre, the smallest scale anyone has explored. The 28 countries in the project agreed an upgrade that would let it catch those signals ten times as often.
6. 08

   Three astronauts vote from orbit

   What happened

   • 3 NASA astronauts on the International Space Station voted in the US midterm elections on 3 November. [10]
   • They were Anil Menon, Luke Delaney and Jessica Watkins. [10] They share the station with 4 others, 7 people in all. [10]
   • Texas passed a law allowing votes from space in 1997. [10]
   • Most NASA astronauts register in Harris County, home to the Johnson Space Center in Houston. [10]
   • Each ballot is encrypted, so only the astronaut and the county clerk can open it. [10]

   Why it matters

   Astronauts ask for an absentee ballot, a vote cast away from home, like any other American abroad. [10]

   How it works

   Engineers call this a relay: NASA's relay satellites pass the ballot down from the station to the ground. [10]

   The ballot goes to a relay satellite, down to New Mexico, then Houston, then the county clerk. [10]

   Seen it before

   A note passed along a row of desks reaches the teacher while its writer stays in their seat.

   Good news

   • Three astronauts on the International Space Station voted in the US elections from orbit, 29 years after Texas first made that possible.
7. 09

   A German satellite 3D-prints a beam in orbit

   What happened

   • A satellite built by Orbital Matter, a German start-up, 3D-printed a plastic beam half a metre long in orbit. [15]
   • The satellite, Replicator 2, went up on a SpaceX shared ride this summer with 4 printers on board. [15]
   • Each printer squeezes out coils of resin, a liquid plastic, and hardens them with ultraviolet light. [15]
   • 1 of the 2 printers meant to unfold a solar panel failed. [15] The other's beam did unfold the panel. [15]
   • Its engineers think beams 100 metres long are possible. [15] Starlink's V2 satellites have solar panels 20 metres long. [15]

   How it unfolded

   Until now, 3D printing in weightlessness had only been done inside the International Space Station. [15]

   Why it matters

   Satellites, above all those meant to be data centres in orbit, need bigger panels and heat radiators. [15] Yet each must fit inside its rocket. [15]

   How it works

   Engineers call this in-space manufacturing: building a satellite's parts in orbit instead of folding them up. [15]

   Today big panels are folded to fit the rocket and opened in orbit. [15] A printed beam is limited only by the resin carried. [15]

   Seen it before

   A long ladder will not fit through a letterbox, but the wood to build one does.

   The truth

   • That this is a first for a free-flying spacecraft is the company's own claim. [15]

   What comes next

   A bigger test in 2028 should open a panel making 5 kW of power. [15]