The truce both sides say they want, and neither can lock in

The deal that keeps slipping

Iran and the United States are not discussing an extension of their ceasefire, a senior Iranian official said Tuesday [2]. Tehran also says there has been no progress on reviving the interim peace deal meant to end the war [1]. Both sides say they would rather have the deal than the fighting. A month into what Al Jazeera calls the war’s second phase, they still cannot reach it [3].

The demands harden as the talks stall. Iran vows to keep fighting until the US meets its terms. Its Revolutionary Guard advisers claim Iran has replaced more missiles and drones than it has fired, and point to falling US munition stocks [3]. President Trump says the US will keep its blockade of Iranian ports and claims “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz [4]. That channel carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. Iran rejects the claim and declares the strait closed until the US changes its behaviour [5].

Why can’t two sides who both want out simply agree to stop? Each fears the other will use the pause. If Iran freezes its program, it loses the leverage that keeps the US from squeezing harder later. If the US lifts the blockade, it hands Iran room to rebuild - which the Guard is openly boasting it is already doing [3]. A shake-up of Iran’s own Security Council has exposed divisions over whether to deal at all [6]. Tehran is meanwhile lining up alternatives, saying it will soon join the BRICS bloc’s development bank [7].

The cost is already leaving the region. The International Energy Agency this week made its deepest cut to its 2026 oil supply forecast, blaming the war’s disruption to Gulf flows [8]. Higher energy prices travel from Hormuz to petrol pumps and power bills far from the fighting.

Ukraine reaches Russia’s last safe harbour

Ukraine struck Novorossiysk overnight, putting Russia’s last major Black Sea sanctuary within reach of its drones [9]. The port handles much of Russia’s oil exports. Three people were killed in overlapping attacks on Russian and Ukrainian port cities [11]. Putin answered by warning of tit-for-tat seizures of European vessels, widening the fight to the ships that carry Europe’s trade [10]. Each strike answers the last; neither side can offer a stop the other believes.

Washington eyes Colombia’s guerrillas

The US floated joint strikes on armed groups inside Colombia after the country’s new government signalled a counter-drug alliance [12]. It is a sharp turn for a country whose long “total peace” talks with guerrilla and drug factions keep hitting the same wall [12]. Fighters will not give up arms they cannot trust the state won’t later punish them for surrendering. A powerful earthquake this week also exposed two Colombias: a modern core and a neglected edge where the state barely reaches [13].

Europe bakes, and reaches for its own footing

Half of Europe’s population was exposed to temperatures above 30C this week as an extreme heatwave stretched across the continent [14]. It strained power grids and health services. In Brussels, politics wobbled too: the centrist coalition that has run the European Parliament is projected to fall short of a majority for the first time [15]. And the EU pushed ahead with plans for a digital euro and a home-grown payments network, to cut its reliance on US card giants [16]. A continent that outsourced its security and its payments is quietly trying to insure itself.

Africa’s quieter wars grind on

Suspected drones from Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces struck Khartoum and El Obeid, extending a civil war that has displaced millions [17]. Further east, rebel forces in Ethiopia’s Tigray region condemned army drone strikes - a warning sign for the 2022 peace deal that ended their war [18]. That deal asked the Tigrayans to disarm. A side that gives up its weapons has no way to stop the other from turning on it later. The same distrust that stalls Iran’s talks runs through both.

Eritrea, the Horn’s quiet lever

While the world watches the Gulf, Eritrea has become an outsized player in the Horn of Africa’s power game [19]. It is a small, closed state on the Red Sea. It backs factions in Ethiopia and Sudan, sits astride a shipping lane the world depends on, and answers to almost no one. Its choices could tip two wars at once, yet it draws a fraction of the coverage - worth watching precisely because so few are.