Trade
International trade, tariffs, supply chains, commodity markets, chokepoints, cartels, and the economics of global commerce.
5 labs in this category
May 2026
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22 May
Persistent Access Over Immediate Damage
Sophisticated attackers prioritize staying inside a target system undetected over causing immediate visible harm—long-term invisible control lets them choose when to disrupt, gather intelligence continuously, and complicate defensive response.
From: Estonian Prime Minister Michal: We are facing increasing cyberattacks from Russia - CNN
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16 May
Coordination Gap Under Damage Asymmetry
When harm from a disruption spreads unevenly and the group absorbing the steepest collective damage cannot coordinate a unified response, decision power remains with parties facing lower individual costs who can negotiate while dispersed victims wait.
From: Long Island Rail Road Strike Shuts Down Busiest U.S. Passenger Rail Service
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13 May
Capacity Binds Flow
When transformation happens at one point between many sources and many destinations, the width of that point—not the number of sources or destinations—sets how much moves through the system.
From: How China Could Wield Its Control of Rare Earths Against Trump
April 2026
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28 Apr
Defection Payoff Crossover
A cartel member defects when the revenue from full production at the resulting lower market price exceeds the revenue from honoring the quota at the cartel's high price.
From: UAE leaves OPEC in major blow to global oil producers' group
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26 Apr
Mixing and Traceability
Homogeneous mixing erases individual input identity; the degree of blending determines whether origin remains detectable.
From: U.S. Mint Buys Drug Cartel Gold and Sells It as 'American'