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The World, Explained

22 May 2026 8 min 99 sources

World News — The World, Explained (22 May 2026)

Ukraine’s drone campaign reaches deeper, and Moscow vows to hit back

Russia is having a bad week for oil infrastructure. Ukrainian drones struck the Syzran refinery — owned by Rosneft, Russia’s state oil company, and located more than 800 kilometres inside Russian territory — setting it on fire overnight Thursday [1]. A separate strike hit a refinery near Yaroslavl the previous day, Zelenskyy confirmed [7]. Both attacks are part of what Kyiv describes as a deliberate May campaign. “The key targets are Russian oil refineries, storage facilities and other infrastructure tied to these oil revenues,” Zelenskyy said [1].

The logic is economic and military at once. Russian oil revenue funds the war. And with some strikes now reaching 1,500 kilometres into Russian territory, the campaign is eroding the sense of safety inside Russia itself — a pressure that, Ukrainian officials argue, bears on Putin’s calculations [1,3].

On the ground, Ukraine’s position is improving. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank that tracks daily front-line movements, said Ukraine has made its most significant battlefield gains since 2024 [1]. Ukraine’s defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov attributed part of this to Russia being cut off from Starlink satellite navigation for its drones, forcing Russian forces to use inferior alternatives [1]. Ukraine also received backing from Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz, who proposed an “associate membership” status for Ukraine in the EU — participation in meetings, but without voting rights — as a diplomatic signal while peace talks are pursued [1].

Putin responded Friday by vowing retaliation for a strike on a student dormitory. He said Ukrainian drones hit a residential building in Starobilsk, in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, killing six people and injuring 39 [5]. Ukraine’s military confirmed the strike but said the building housed the headquarters of Russia’s elite Rubicon drone unit, not civilian infrastructure [5]. The BBC could not independently verify the building’s use. The dispute matters: it goes to whether Ukraine deliberately targeted civilians or a legitimate military target, and will shape Putin’s stated justification for whatever he orders next [5].

Russia also conducted nuclear exercises Thursday, launching a Yars ballistic missile and a Zircon hypersonic missile in tests, while nuclear submarines sortied from Arctic and Pacific ports [1]. These were pre-announced exercises, not a response to the refinery strikes, but the timing keeps nuclear signalling visible.

The thing to track: how much refinery capacity Russia has now lost, and when that translates into reduced fuel supply for its military. Barclays is forecasting Brent crude at $100 a barrel for 2026 with risks skewing higher [62] — a direct consequence of the war’s disruption to global energy markets.

The US-Iran ceasefire: inching forward, stuck on two things

A draft interim ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is circulating, Saudi news channel Al Arabiya reported Friday [19]. According to that report, the draft covers an immediate, comprehensive halt to hostilities — but deliberately excludes Iran’s nuclear programme. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed “slight progress” had been made [19,56].

Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been the primary go-between for Washington and Tehran, travelled to the Iranian capital on Friday after a delay caused by the slow pace of talks [45,56]. Pakistan’s prime minister is also due in Beijing on Saturday, and Pakistan is reportedly considering bringing China in as a co-mediator [45].

Two issues are blocking a deal. First, Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile — the US wants Tehran to export it; Iran wants to set that question aside. Second, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel through which roughly 20% of global oil passes. Iran has proposed a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority that would charge tolls and direct shipping routes inside Iranian territorial waters. Five Gulf states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — wrote to the International Maritime Organization, a global shipping regulator, this week urging ships to ignore the Iranian scheme [45]. Secretary Rubio at a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden said flatly: “Iran is trying to create a tolling system” in an international waterway [45].

The UAE’s diplomatic adviser put the odds of a deal at “50-50” [67]. Markets are treating that assessment seriously: US stocks climbed and the dollar reached a six-week high on optimism about the talks [2,4], while oil prices reflect investors’ uncertainty about whether Iranian supply returns [9].

What this means for anyone watching energy: a ceasefire that excludes the nuclear question is designed to stop the fighting, not resolve the underlying standoff. Iran’s nuclear programme would remain intact, which means sanctions relief — and the oil supply increase that would follow — is not guaranteed even if guns go quiet.

Gaza: flotilla aftermath, a frozen peace plan

The fallout from Israel’s interception of the Global Sumud Flotilla — 430 activists from more than 40 countries aboard 50 ships — continued to accumulate Friday. Activists who returned to Italy, Ireland, Germany and France described beatings, Tasering, and at least 15 alleged sexual assaults, including rape [50,51]. An Italian legal source said prosecutors in Rome were investigating possible crimes of kidnapping, torture and sexual assault [50]. Germany said some of its nationals had injuries and called the allegations “serious” [50].

Israel’s prison service denied all abuse allegations, saying detainees were held “in accordance with the law” [50]. Reuters was unable to independently verify the activists’ accounts [51]. The Israeli foreign ministry referred all queries to the prison service [50]. An Irish activist, Catriona Graham, said she was placed in isolation after shouting “free Palestine” as far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir walked past detainees kneeling with their hands bound [16]. Even Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu distanced himself from Ben-Gvir’s conduct, calling it “not in line with Israel’s values” [16].

Italy is reportedly discussing EU sanctions on Ben-Gvir [50]. The Israel Prison Service, meanwhile, stood by its guards, saying all actions were “carried out in accordance with procedures” [26].

On the broader Gaza question, the US Board of Peace — a Trump-created body overseeing the post-war reconstruction plan — told the UN Security Council Thursday that Hamas’s refusal to disarm remains the “principal obstacle” to implementation [12,29]. Envoy Nickolay Mladenov warned that Gaza’s current partition, with Hamas controlling roughly 40% of the territory, risks becoming permanent [12]. Hamas rejected the assessment as cover for Israeli escalation [12]. Meanwhile the ceasefire continues to be violated: Hamas-run health officials said an Israeli drone strike killed a 13-year-old boy in northern Gaza; the IDF said it struck an armed suspect approaching its forces and that the minor was alongside him [12].

Turkey’s opposition, judicially decapitated

An Ankara court Thursday annulled the 2023 leadership election of Turkey’s CHP — the Republican People’s Party, the country’s main opposition and oldest political party — and reinstated former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu in place of current leader Ozgur Ozel [60,66]. The CHP called the ruling “an attempted coup through the judiciary” [60]. Ozel said he would appeal and urged courts to “save Turkey from a disaster” [66].

Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul, the country’s main stock exchange, dropped 6 percent on the ruling, triggering an automatic circuit breaker that halts trading. The central bank sold billions of dollars in foreign currency reserves to slow the slide [60].

This matters because the CHP had been running roughly even with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP in polls, partly on the strength of Istanbul’s popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who has been imprisoned for over a year on corruption charges the party denies [60]. The court’s move comes as presidential elections loom — possibly as early as next year — and it throws the opposition into a leadership crisis at the worst possible moment. The pattern is now consistent enough that investors are pricing in political risk alongside currency risk when looking at Turkish assets.

Ebola in the DRC: the outbreak is accelerating

The WHO, the World Health Organization, upgraded its risk assessment for the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo — Africa’s second-largest country — from “high” to “very high” on Friday [86,91,92]. Suspected cases have nearly tripled in one week: from 246 cases and 65 deaths when the outbreak was first reported, to roughly 750 suspected cases and 177 suspected deaths now [86]. This is the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, a rare species for which there is no approved vaccine; it kills around a third of those infected [92].

The response is being undermined by the conflict in Ituri province, where most cases are concentrated. On Thursday, angry residents set fire to a treatment centre in Rwampara, outside the city of Bunia, after health workers refused to release a patient’s body for burial — a necessary infection control measure [86,91]. The WHO warned that “significant distrust of outside authorities” is hampering containment [91].

Oxford University scientists are developing a Bundibugyo-specific vaccine using the ChAdOx1 technology — the same platform used for their Covid vaccine — and say it could be ready for clinical trials in two to three months [90]. The WHO also plans to test an existing antiviral drug, Obeldesivir, made by US biopharmaceutical company Gilead, against the virus [91].

The outbreak has already forced postponement

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