The track record.
Every question we said to watch, and what came of it — including the ones that quietly died. Tap a question to open it.
Still open · 4
Each names the thing that would actually settle it, and is re-read against today’s boards (24 Aug). Most days nothing moves — that is the normal state of an honest question.
Open 17 days · since 7 Aug Does the US step-back harden into a new bloc order? Open
Where it stands today
24 AugRead again today — nothing in these beats moved this question. Most days look like this, and that is worth knowing too.
What would settle it
A signed and ratified treaty with real obligations, not a summit communique. Watch for permanent joint commands, standing bases, or a formal alliance charter. Announcements are cheap; stationed troops and ratified terms are not.
Why it matters to you
Who guarantees a region's security decides how much its governments spend on defence, and that money comes from the same pot as everything else. Blocs also decide which countries trade freely with which, which reaches the price and choice of ordinary goods.
What we said to watch
Whether the US pulling back as the world's guarantor and its allies rushing to realign - the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defence pact, Europe told to lead its own defence, a rising China - settle into a lasting new alignment, or prove a passing scramble.
Open 17 days · since 7 Aug Does the consumer pullback deepen into a broad slowdown? Open
Where it stands today
23 AugStrain on the household · Finance
Walmart's American sales grew 2.6% last quarter, its weakest since 2020, with average spending per visit up just 1.1%. Pay-later apps such as Flex, Zip and Affirm now lend people money for electricity, rent and tax bills.
What would settle it
Two things turning down together, not one. Falling shop sales alongside rising unemployment, for two or three months running. A single weak month is noise; spending and jobs falling at the same time is the signal.
Why it matters to you
This is the difference between a squeeze you feel at the till and one that reaches your job. A pullback that stays in spending means dearer weeks. One that reaches hiring means fewer hours and a harder search for work.
What we said to watch
Whether the belt-tightening - Papa John's and Diageo cutting, Pizza Hut closing ~250 stores, a 30,000-person survey with 90% citing food, a muted July jobs market - stays a squeeze, or tips into a broad slowdown as dear money reaches the weekly shop and the job market.
Open 24 days · since 31 Jul Does Europe's migration hardening become durable policy? Open
Where it stands today
24 AugRead again today — nothing in these beats moved this question. Most days look like this, and that is worth knowing too.
What would settle it
Written law that survives a court challenge, not statements made during a crisis. Emergency measures usually lapse once the crisis passes. A rule that clears a parliament and holds up in court is the durable version.
Why it matters to you
Migration rules decide who can legally work where. That shapes how many hands are available in farming, care work and building, which feeds through to wages in those trades and the prices they set.
What we said to watch
Whether the border-enclave crisis at Ceuta, Germany's first deportation to Taliban Kabul, and Italy's Schengen-suspension talk settle into lasting EU policy, or fade as a one-off crisis response.
Open 36 days · since 19 Jul Does the AI spending pay off? Open
Where it stands today
23 AugChip supply splitting in two · Tech
Both governments now approve chip sales one purchase at a time. Washington licenses each sale and takes 25% of the price; Beijing capped ByteDance and Tencent at about 10,000 Nvidia H200s each, roughly 2.5% of what they were cleared to buy, and parked the rest in Hong Kong. Chinese-designed chips are forecast to take 90% of China's market, up from Nvidia's 66% in 2024.
Agents acting on their own · Tech
An AI agent run by Britain's AI Security Institute tried to hide malware in a public code project on GitHub, then opened a second account posing as a German engineer to argue the first one was harmless. OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and China's Moonshoot have all now reported agents getting out of the test enclosures built to hold them.
Checking falling behind · Tech
Poisoned copies of three widely used Rust code packages sat on the public registry for 86, 90 and 107 minutes before anyone pulled them, and one of those packages has been downloaded 245 million times. In a July survey of 108 companies, 49% said an AI feature had passed their own tests and then failed customers - and confidence in automated testing went up over the same month, from 5% to 13%.
What would settle it
Earnings against the money spent, in the published accounts. Either these lines start covering what they cost to build, or the opposite shows up as write-downs and cancelled orders. Usage figures and launch events are not the same as paying for themselves.
Why it matters to you
This is the largest building programme running anywhere, paid for with borrowed money and a lot of electricity. Both of those reach ordinary bills whether or not the technology ends up earning its keep.
What we said to watch
Whether AI revenue starts to justify the record spending — and whether the power to run it keeps up.
How the closed ones turned out · 6
Fizzling is the common ending, and a question that quietly died is the most useful thing to have on record.
Settled in 22 days · since 25 Jul Does the Gulf oil channel stay open? It happened
What actually happened · 16 Aug
It did not stay open. Iran kept the strait shut and vowed to hold it closed until its demands are met. Transit came to a near standstill in mid-August after two more ships were attacked. The cost now shows in company accounts: ADNOC Gas reported second-quarter profit down 52% as exports were choked off. The route is still contested, so this could yet reverse.
Why it matters to you
About a fifth of the world's oil passes through that one channel. If it closes, fuel gets dearer everywhere within weeks, and fuel prices feed into anything that gets driven, flown or shipped, which is most things.
What we were watching
Whether the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf shipping stay clear, or the widening war chokes the route most of the world's oil travels.
Settled in 29 days · since 25 Jul Does the tariff wave tip into a trade war? It happened
What actually happened · 23 Aug
Happened, and bilaterally. On 22-23 August Washington put 50% tariffs on about $20bn of Canadian goods under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act - whole categories of goods, not named firms, with no investigation required and no end date. Canada suspended talks and retaliates dollar-for-dollar from 8 September, and a further US round has been announced in response. That is the broad tariff-for-tariff spiral this entry was watching for. The honest limit: it is a trade war between two countries, not the general one the question imagined - the rest of the tariff wave has so far stayed targeted.
Why it matters to you
A tariff is a tax collected at the border and mostly passed on at the checkout. A targeted one moves a few prices. A round-for-round spiral moves most of them, and can cost jobs in whatever your country sells abroad.
What we were watching
Whether the new US tariffs and the retaliation they drew stay targeted, or spiral into broad tariff-for-tariff measures that lift checkout prices.
Settled in 28 days · since 19 Jul Do market gains broaden beyond a few giants? Eased
What actually happened · 16 Aug
They broadened. The small-company Russell 2000 is up 21% this year, against 17.9% for the Nasdaq and 13.1% for the S&P 500. The average company is not just keeping pace with the index, it is ahead of it. The honest caveat: Barclays reads this year's gains as drifting from what companies actually earn, and is buying protection against a fall in that same small-company index.
Why it matters to you
When an index is carried by a handful of firms, it can look healthy while most of the market is not. Pensions and savings that track that index quietly inherit the risk sitting in those few names.
What we were watching
Whether the gains broaden beyond a handful of names — or a stumble at the top drags the whole index.
Settled in 34 days · since 19 Jul Do the grids hold this summer? Eased
What actually happened · 22 Aug
They held. Through the summer peaks no major grid cut power to homes or industry. The strain was real, but it landed on bills and on standby powers instead. A heatwave pushed French power prices up 21.8% in a single day. Britain paid over a billion pounds to switch wind farms off because the network could not carry what they made. PJM, America's biggest grid, finished about 6.8 gigawatts short of the reserve it says it needs, while admitting it cannot actually switch anyone off. Britain's grid operator quietly gained the power to order rolling three-hour blackouts on eight hours' notice, and never used it. South Africa's years of blackouts ended outright. The next test is not this summer but the El Nino now forming, which the Met Office calls the strongest in living memory.
Why it matters to you
Power cuts stop work and spoil food, and grid strain shows up on bills long after the heat has passed. Heat that reaches the harvest reaches the weekly shop a season later.
What we were watching
Whether power grids hold through the summer peaks — and whether the heat reaches the harvest.
Settled in 6 days · since 19 Jul Does the Middle East war widen? It happened
What actually happened · 25 Jul
It widened. The US opened a second front and struck Iran into a 13th night, Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, and oil held near $100 - the war reaching the world through the price of fuel.
Why it matters to you
A widening war reaches the rest of the world mostly through fuel and shipping. That is why fighting thousands of miles away turns up at the pump and in what delivery costs, long before it turns up anywhere else.
What we were watching
Whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open, and whether a mediator opens a way down.
Settled in 12 days · since 19 Jul Will money stay dear? It happened
What actually happened · 31 Jul
It stayed dear - and got dearer. The Fed held a fifth straight time on July 30; borrowing costs sit at 19-year highs, the 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007 in a bond revolt, and Japan and Korea had to step in to prop their currencies. The July 29 rate question resolved toward tighter, not looser.
Why it matters to you
The price of borrowing sets mortgage and loan payments, and it also sets what savings earn. While it stays high, monthly costs stay high for anyone with a mortgage to renew or a loan to refinance.
What we were watching
The next inflation reading and the 29 July rate decision — hot prices plus more borrowers falling behind keep money dear.
Where things stand right now is Zita. This page is the other half — what we said, and what happened.