What we watched, and what came of it

Watched — Whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open, and whether a mediator opens a way down. · from 19 Jul

What happened — It widened. The US opened a second front and struck Iran into a 13th night, Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, and oil held near $100 - the war reaching the world through the price of fuel. · 25 Jul

Watched — The next inflation reading and the 29 July rate decision — hot prices plus more borrowers falling behind keep money dear. · from 19 Jul

What happened — It stayed dear - and got dearer. The Fed held a fifth straight time on July 30; borrowing costs sit at 19-year highs, the 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007 in a bond revolt, and Japan and Korea had to step in to prop their currencies. The July 29 rate question resolved toward tighter, not looser. · 31 Jul

Watched — Whether the border-enclave crisis at Ceuta, Germany's first deportation to Taliban Kabul, and Italy's Schengen-suspension talk settle into lasting EU policy, or fade as a one-off crisis response. · from 31 Jul

Watched — Whether the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf shipping stay clear, or the widening war chokes the route most of the world's oil travels. · from 25 Jul

Watched — Whether the new US tariffs and the retaliation they drew stay targeted, or spiral into broad tariff-for-tariff measures that lift checkout prices. · from 25 Jul

Watched — Whether the gains broaden beyond a handful of names — or a stumble at the top drags the whole index. · from 19 Jul

Watched — Whether power grids hold through the summer peaks — and whether the heat reaches the harvest. · from 19 Jul

Watched — Whether AI revenue starts to justify the record spending — and whether the power to run it keeps up. · from 19 Jul