Picture two readers with the same study in front of them: people who play video games every day do worse at school. One reader loves games. The other has been saying for years that games are a waste. Same page, same numbers. Two different readings have already begun.
Can I believe it?one reason will do
vsvs
Must I believe it?one flaw will do
When a person wants a claim to be true, the mind asks: can I believe this? One good reason is enough, and it stops looking. When a person wants a claim to be false, the mind asks: must I believe this? Now it hunts for a flaw, and one flaw is enough.
Loves games
↓→
Which question?
The reader who loves games opens the study. Which question is their mind asking?
Can I believe this? A gamer would want to know the truth about games.
Not yet. Wanting to know the truth is what everybody thinks they are doing. The question the mind actually asks is set by which answer would hurt, and this one would.
Must I believe this? They want it false, so they hunt for a flaw.
Right. The study says something they do not want to be true. The mind goes looking for the one reason it can be set aside, and a study always has one.
Both, fairly. A reader can hold both questions at once.
Not yet. Nobody has found a reader who does. One question gets asked first, and it is the one that protects what the reader already wanted.
A skin creamgood with numbers: right
vsvs
The same numbers as a gun lawgood with numbers: wrong, when it hurt
A 2013 study put a puzzle to about a thousand US adults. Does a skin cream work? The numbers needed working out. People good with numbers mostly got it right. Then the same numbers were relabelled as the result of a gun law. Now the people good with numbers got it wrong, whenever the right answer went against their politics.
In that study, as people got better with numbers, what happened to the gap between the two sides' answers on the gun-law version?
Pick one. Nothing is scored.
Poor with numberssmall gap
vsvs
Good with numbersbig gap
It grew.The better a person was with numbers, the further apart the two sides sat. Most guesses land on closed, because skill with numbers sounds like a cure. In the study it was a better tool for finding the flaw the reader was already hunting for.
Set how much a reader wants the claim to be true, and how strong the evidence is. The bars are made up and round: the evidence must clear a bar, and the wish sets where the bar is.
The evidence1 out of 5
The bar it must clear5 out of 5
The reader: Wants it false · The evidence: Weak
Weak evidence, and this reader wants it false. Their bar is 5 out of 5, the evidence is 1. They find a flaw and do not believe it.
The evidence2 out of 5
The bar it must clear5 out of 5
The reader: Wants it false · The evidence: Fair
Fair evidence, and this reader wants it false. Their bar is 5 out of 5, the evidence is 2. They find a flaw and do not believe it.
The evidence3 out of 5
The bar it must clear5 out of 5
The reader: Wants it false · The evidence: Good
Good evidence, and this reader wants it false. Their bar is 5 out of 5, the evidence is 3. They find a flaw and do not believe it.
The evidence4 out of 5
The bar it must clear5 out of 5
The reader: Wants it false · The evidence: Strong
Strong evidence, and this reader wants it false. Their bar is 5 out of 5, the evidence is 4. They find a flaw and do not believe it.
The evidence5 out of 5
The bar it must clear5 out of 5
The reader: Wants it false · The evidence: Very strong
Very strong evidence, and this reader wants it false. Their bar is 5 out of 5, the evidence is 5. They believe it.
The evidence1 out of 5
The bar it must clear3 out of 5
The reader: Does not mind · The evidence: Weak
Weak evidence, and this reader does not mind. Their bar is 3 out of 5, the evidence is 1. They find a flaw and do not believe it.
The evidence2 out of 5
The bar it must clear3 out of 5
The reader: Does not mind · The evidence: Fair
Fair evidence, and this reader does not mind. Their bar is 3 out of 5, the evidence is 2. They find a flaw and do not believe it.
The evidence3 out of 5
The bar it must clear3 out of 5
The reader: Does not mind · The evidence: Good
Good evidence, and this reader does not mind. Their bar is 3 out of 5, the evidence is 3. They believe it.
The evidence4 out of 5
The bar it must clear3 out of 5
The reader: Does not mind · The evidence: Strong
Strong evidence, and this reader does not mind. Their bar is 3 out of 5, the evidence is 4. They believe it.
The evidence5 out of 5
The bar it must clear3 out of 5
The reader: Does not mind · The evidence: Very strong
Very strong evidence, and this reader does not mind. Their bar is 3 out of 5, the evidence is 5. They believe it.
The evidence1 out of 5
The bar it must clear2 out of 5
The reader: Wants it true · The evidence: Weak
Weak evidence, and this reader wants it true. Their bar is 2 out of 5, the evidence is 1. They find a flaw and do not believe it.
The evidence2 out of 5
The bar it must clear2 out of 5
The reader: Wants it true · The evidence: Fair
Fair evidence, and this reader wants it true. Their bar is 2 out of 5, the evidence is 2. They believe it.
The evidence3 out of 5
The bar it must clear2 out of 5
The reader: Wants it true · The evidence: Good
Good evidence, and this reader wants it true. Their bar is 2 out of 5, the evidence is 3. They believe it.
The evidence4 out of 5
The bar it must clear2 out of 5
The reader: Wants it true · The evidence: Strong
Strong evidence, and this reader wants it true. Their bar is 2 out of 5, the evidence is 4. They believe it.
The evidence5 out of 5
The bar it must clear2 out of 5
The reader: Wants it true · The evidence: Very strong
Very strong evidence, and this reader wants it true. Their bar is 2 out of 5, the evidence is 5. They believe it.
The evidence is good, three out of five. Which reader believes it?
Only the one who wants it true.
Not yet. The reader who does not mind has a bar of 3, and good evidence is 3. They believe it too. Only the reader who wants it false is left out.
All three. Good evidence is good evidence.
Not yet. Good evidence is the same for all three; the bar is not. The reader who wants it false holds the bar at 5, and three does not reach it.
The one who wants it true, and the one who does not mind. Not the one who wants it false.
Right. Good evidence clears a bar of 2 and a bar of 3. The reader who wants it false has a bar of 5, and good is not enough; they find the flaw.
Move both controls.
Poor with numbers: the gap1 illustrative
Good with numbers: the gap3 illustrative
The gap between the sides, made up in size, shaped on the 2013 finding.
Neither side was dumber. The study found the same move on both sides of the argument, and the people best with numbers made the biggest move. Skill does not stop the wish. It gives the wish better tools.
Each is something a reader says about a study. Which question is their mind asking?
One card at a time. Tap the pile it belongs to.
Card 1 of 5
It is only one study. Said about a result they dislike.
My cousin says it worked for her. Said about a cure they hope for.
Who paid for this research? Said about a finding against their team.
Finally, proof. Said about a result they predicted years ago.
Only fifty people were tested. Said about a result they dislike.
It is only one study. Said about a result they dislike. → Must I believe it?
Not yet. Must I. One study is a true thing to say about almost any result, and it is reached for when the result hurts.
My cousin says it worked for her. Said about a cure they hope for. → Can I believe it?
Not yet. Can I. One cousin is one reason, and for a reader who wants the cure to work, one reason is enough.
Who paid for this research? Said about a finding against their team. → Must I believe it?
Not yet. Must I. Asking who paid is a fair question; it is asked here because the answer gives a way out.
Finally, proof. Said about a result they predicted years ago. → Can I believe it?
Not yet. Can I. Proof is a big word for one result, and it is used when the result is the one the reader wanted.
Only fifty people were tested. Said about a result they dislike. → Must I believe it?
Not yet. Must I. The count is real and may matter; the reader did not count the people in the studies they liked.
2Can I?
vsvs
3Must I?
Right. The same reader can say all five in one week. The flaws are real flaws and the reasons are real reasons; what the wish decides is which ones get looked for.
Only one studythe one you dislike
vsvs
Only one studythe one you like
There is a tell, and it works on yourself. Take the reason you just used and point it the other way. It is only one study: would you say that about a study you liked? If not, the reason was not doing the work. The wish was.
Hopes it works
↓→
One person lost ten kilos
Someone hoping a diet works reads a post by a person who lost ten kilos on it. By this lesson, what happens next in their mind?
The mind weighs it fairly, because weight is a matter of fact.
Not yet. Nobody weighs a claim they hope is true the way they weigh one they fear. The 2013 study found the wish at work in everyone it tested, and most of all in the skilled.
The mind asks must I believe this, and one story is not proof.
Not yet. That is the question a reader asks when the post says the diet failed. Here the post says what they hoped, and the hoping reader's mind asks the other question.
The mind asks can I believe this, and one story is enough. They believe it.
Right. The wish sets the bar at one good reason, and a person who lost ten kilos is one. The hunt for a flaw never starts, because the reader was never hunting.
Lesson complete
Wanting a claim true lowers the bar it must clear. Wanting it false raises it, and nobody feels the move.