Lesson 02 · 3 min · 5 things to do
How long a season has to be
Say how many games it takes before a table means something.
After six games, one team is top and another is bottom. How much should that change your view of them?
- Yes.Early tables are dominated by fixture difficulty and one-goal margins. The information is real and it is thin, which is exactly the sort of evidence a table's confident layout hides.
- Not quite.It does not lie about results. It says nothing yet about which team is better.
- Not quite.Six results are some evidence. Treating them as none is the opposite mistake.
How many games it takes for a table to mean something depends on how much of each result is decided by chance — and that differs enormously between sports.
Slide the number of games played and watch how closely the table matches true quality.
61938How much of the table is real difference25%How much is chance75%6The table is mostly noise. Half the top six will not be there at the end.
How much of the table is real difference55%How much is chance45%19Half a season. The shape is emerging and the middle is still a lottery.
How much of the table is real difference75%How much is chance25%38A full season. The top and bottom are trustworthy; two places in mid-table still are not.
Even after a full season a quarter of the table is chance. What does that mean for finishing 8th rather than 11th?
- Yes.The gap between mid-table places is usually within the noise of a season. Bonuses, sackings and transfer budgets nonetheless turn on it.
- Not quite.Three places can be one deflection in November and a red card in March.
- Not quite.The extremes are informative. It is the middle where the noise swamps the difference.
Move the control to see what changes.
In which of these sports does a single game tell you more about who is better?
Basketball, with a hundred-odd scoring events.
Football, decided by two or three goals.
Tennis, best of five sets.
A one-off cup tie decided on penalties.
A test match over five days.
Yes.More scoring events means more samples inside one contest, so the better side's edge has more chances to show. Low-scoring sports are more exciting for exactly the reason they are less informative.A season is 38 games. A team's true win rate is 50%, but it wins 23. How many wins above expectation is that?
winsYes.19 expected, 23 achieved. Four wins is roughly the gap between fourth and seventh — and it can be produced by nothing but chance across a season.Why do leagues play so many games?
- Yes.The length of a season is not tradition. It is roughly the number of samples needed for the better teams to rise, which is why leagues are considered the fairer test and cups the more exciting one.
- Not quite.A real commercial motive, and the same arithmetic held long before the money did.
- Not quite.Fatigue is a consequence, and it is dealt with in a later lesson.
Lesson complete
A table needs a whole season before its middle means anything.
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