Course
How a team is built
Work out how much of a result is skill, how much is luck, and what a club is actually buying.
The shape of it
7 lessons
About 22 minutes in total. Your progress is kept on this device — no account, nothing sent anywhere.
Course complete
Put your name on it and print it, or save it as a PDF. Nothing is sent anywhere.
The lessons
Winning is not the same as being better
Estimate how often the weaker side wins a single match.
6 steps · about 3 min
How long a season has to be
Say how many games it takes before a table means something.
6 steps · about 3 min
Everyone is bidding for the same thing
Explain why a great player can be a bad signing.
6 steps · about 3 min
The weakest link decides the chain
Predict where adding quality changes a result and where it does not.
6 steps · about 3 min
Fatigue is a fixture list
Trace a schedule through to a drop in performance.
7 steps · about 4 min
What home advantage is made of
Separate the parts of an effect everyone accepts and few examine.
6 steps · about 3 min
Reading a table honestly
Tell apart a team that is good and one that has been fortunate.
7 steps · about 4 min