Day Lila

Biotech & Longevity · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Novo Nordisk pays China's Hengrui $300 million up front, and up to $2.6 billion, for a once-a-week weight-loss pill no person has taken yet

Biotech & Longevity 17 sources

The pill copies two gut hormones, like Lilly's injection Zepbound, and is built to be taken once a week instead of every day. It has only been cleared for a first human trial in China, and Novo, which has lost ground to Lilly, gave no dates for its own tests.

$300m of $2.6bn

paid on signing, out of the most Novo could pay Hengrui

the rest depends on the pill passing tests and selling [2][1]

6

licensing deals Hengrui has signed with US or European drugmakers since the start of 2025

the most of any China-based drug company in BioPharma Dive's count [3]

$100bn

a year in weight-loss drug sales that analysts expect within the next decade

Novo and Lilly both think pills can reach people who avoid injections [2]

The lead story — what happened

  • Novo Nordisk, the Danish maker of the weight-loss drug Wegovy, will pay $300 million up front to Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals for an experimental weight-loss drug called HRS-1596. [1][2]
  • Hengrui can earn up to $2.3 billion more if the drug passes later tests and sells. That would take the deal to as much as $2.6 billion. [2][1]
  • Hengrui is China's largest drugmaker by stock-market value. It announced the deal on Tuesday. [2]
  • No person has taken the drug yet. China's regulator has cleared it for a phase 1 trial, the first small test of safety in people. [1][2]
  • It is designed as a pill taken once a week. The weight-loss pills sold now, Novo's Wegovy pill and Eli Lilly's Foundayo, are taken every day. [2][1]
  • Like Lilly's injection Zepbound, it copies two gut hormones, GLP-1 and GIP. They curb appetite and help the body handle sugar. [1][3]
  • Novo gets the rights everywhere except mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. It says it will run trials around the world, but gave no dates. [2]
  • Novo has lost ground to Lilly in weight-loss drugs. It has installed a new chief executive, laid off thousands of workers and bought other companies' experimental drugs. [3]
  • Earlier this month it bought three experimental obesity drugs from the biotech company Kallyope. [3] Last week it agreed a 1.17 billion euro deal for Nanexa's way of making injections last longer. [1]
  • Hengrui has signed six licensing deals with US or European drugmakers since the start of 2025, more than any other Chinese drug company, by BioPharma Dive's count. [3]
  • Hengrui's obesity drugs are also the base of the startup Kailera Therapeutics, whose first sale of shares in April set a record. [1][3]
  • A Leerink Partners analyst said Kailera may have had the right to buy this drug first. He also said there is little data to judge it before tests in people. [3]
  • Paid on signing$300m · 12%
  • Paid only if it passes tests and sells$2,300m · 88%
What Hengrui can earn from Novo, in millions of dollars. Most of it arrives only if the pill works in people and then sells.

Who is involved

  • Novo Nordisk

    the Danish company behind Ozempic and Wegovy; it paid for the pill's rights outside China

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals

    China's largest drugmaker by stock-market value; it designed HRS-1596 and gets $300 million now

  • Eli Lilly

    the US company that sells the injection Zepbound and the daily pill Foundayo; it has taken ground from Novo

  • Kailera Therapeutics

    a startup built on Hengrui's obesity drugs; an analyst says it may have had the right to buy this one first

How it unfolded

  1. Since 2025 Hengrui signs six licensing deals with US or European drugmakers [3]
  2. April Kailera, built on Hengrui's obesity drugs, makes a record first sale of shares [1]
  3. Early Sept Novo buys three experimental obesity drugs from Kallyope [3]
  4. Last week Novo agrees a 1.17 billion euro deal with Nanexa [1]
  5. Tue 29 Sep Novo agrees to pay Hengrui $300 million up front for HRS-1596 [2]
  6. Next a first human trial in China; Novo plans global trials but gives no dates [2][1]

Where this points

Watch the first human trial in China. It is the first test of whether a once-a-week pill of this kind is safe in people, and Novo has given no dates for its own trials. [1][2]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Two firms chasing weight-loss sales High↑

Novo paid $300 million for a once-a-week pill that no person has taken yet. [1] In Milan, Novo said people who raised their Ozempic dose had a lower risk of heart events than people who switched to Lilly's Mounjaro. [6] Lilly said its daily pill beat Novo's, using two older trials. [7]

Drugs compared without a shared trial Building↑

The Dutch company uniQure measured its Huntington's treatment against a database of untreated patients, and over half of its four-year records are missing. [4] A Lilly-funded study set Zepbound against Wegovy using two separate trials. [8] An eye study in Italy switched 30 patients to another drug with no comparison group. [16]

Getting genes into the right cells Building↑

A gene-therapy virus was built to stay switched off until the liver, light or injury chemicals unlock it, in mice. [12] New fat bubbles carried long gene-editing messages up to four times better in mice. [13] Rewriting one short run of letters stopped a misreading caused by a modified letter used in mRNA vaccines. [14]

The rest of the day

13 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Huntington's gene therapy weakens at four years

    The Dutch company uniQure said on Tuesday that its one-time gene therapy AMT-130 slowed Huntington's disease by 44% after four years in 12 high-dose patients. [4][5] Huntington's is an inherited disease that destroys nerve cells. [5] The 44% was measured against a database of untreated patients, and it was not statistically significant, so chance could explain it. [5] At three years uniQure had reported 75%. [4] A second score, for daily tasks such as managing money, held at 61%, against 60% a year earlier. [4]

    Why it matters — The US drug regulator is reviewing uniQure's request for early approval, filed this month on the three-year data. [4] Shares fell about 40% on Tuesday, and uniQure says the database lost its fastest-declining patients, which makes its drug look weaker. [4][5]

  2. 03

    Novo's records favour Ozempic over a switch

    Novo Nordisk said on Tuesday that health records from 636,525 adults with type 2 diabetes showed a 6% lower risk of serious heart and blood-vessel events in people who raised their Ozempic dose. [6] They were compared with people who switched to Mounjaro, the rival drug from Eli Lilly. [6] Within 720 days, 36.9% had raised their Ozempic dose to 2 mg and only 5.7% had switched. [6] The results were shown at the European diabetes meeting in Milan. [6]

    • Stayed on 1 mg57.4%
    • Raised the dose to 2 mg36.9%
    • Switched to Mounjaro5.7%
    What the 636,525 adults on Ozempic 1 mg did within 720 days. The Mounjaro group Novo compared against is the thin slice.

    Why it matters — This was a study of records, not a trial, so nobody decided by chance who switched and who stayed. Novo and Lilly are fighting over a US obesity market that analysts put at $100 billion to $150 billion by 2030. [6]

  3. 04

    Lilly says its pill beats Novo's

    Eli Lilly said on Tuesday that its daily weight-loss pill Foundayo lowered weight and blood sugar more than a higher, 25 mg dose of Novo's Ozempic pill, in adults with type 2 diabetes. [7] The two pills were never tested in one trial. Lilly compared results from two earlier late-stage studies. [7] It put Foundayo ahead by 1.5% to 2.4% more weight lost, and by 0.3% to 0.6% more off HbA1c, a measure of average blood sugar. [7]

    Why it matters — Novo said people with type 2 diabetes lose less weight in studies than people with obesity alone. [7] Its 25 mg pill is not yet approved in the US for diabetes, and it expects a decision by the end of 2026. [7]

  4. 05

    A no-fasting diabetes pill passes a final test

    A phase 3 trial, the large final stage of testing, at 46 sites in China tried safiglipron, a daily pill that copies the gut hormone GLP-1. [9] It can be taken with food, at any time of day. [9] The 284 adults had early type 2 diabetes, managed with diet and exercise alone. [9] After 32 weeks, HbA1c, a measure of average blood sugar, fell 1.20 to 1.45 points more than on a dummy pill. [9] Between 71.4% and 77.8% reached the usual target, against 25% on the dummy. [9]

    Share of people who reached the usual blood-sugar target after 32 weeks.

    Why it matters — The trial's main measure was blood sugar, and weight fell only 0.65% to 3.56% more than on the dummy. [9] Side effects made 6.9% stop on the highest dose, against none on the dummy. [9]

  5. 06

    BioNTech closes three German sites

    BioNTech, the German company that first developed the COVID vaccine it sells with Pfizer, said on Monday it will close its sites in Idar-Oberstein, Marburg and Tuebingen. [10] It had tried since May to sell them, while moving its COVID vaccine production to Pfizer. [10] No buyer was found. [10] The wider plan, which also covered a site in Singapore, affects up to 1,860 jobs. [10]

    Why it matters — BioNTech says it has agreed redundancy terms with its works council, the body that speaks for staff. [10] Its two co-founders said in March that they will leave by the end of this year to start a new company. [10]

  6. 07

    Roche pill tried on repair-fault cancers

    Roche's experimental pill RO7589831 was tested in 88 people with advanced cancers that carry MSI, a fault in how cells fix errors when they copy DNA. [11] The pill blocks WRN, a protein that these cancer cells need to survive. [11] Of 66 patients whose tumours could be judged, seven saw them shrink clearly, and in 74.2% growth stopped for a while. [11] Those responses lasted a median of 10.2 months so far, and some were still going when the results were published in Nature Medicine on 29 September. [11]

    7 of 66

    patients whose tumours shrank clearly

    Seven of the 66 people whose tumours could be judged saw them shrink clearly.

    Why it matters — This first test in people was about safety and dose, and nausea affected 54.5% of patients, mostly mildly. [11] MSI is found in 4% to 7% of advanced bowel cancers and 15% to 25% of advanced womb cancers, and immune drugs do not help all of those patients. [11]

  7. 08

    A Lilly-paid comparison of Zepbound and Wegovy

    A study paid for by Eli Lilly, published on 28 September in the International Journal of Obesity, compared tirzepatide, which Lilly sells as Zepbound, with Novo's semaglutide, sold as Wegovy. [8] The two drugs were never given in one trial. The authors lined up two separate trials, each against its own dummy group. [8] On that basis, the two higher tirzepatide doses took off 5.1 kg and 6.5 kg more than semaglutide, in adults with obesity but no diabetes. [8]

    Why it matters — Six of the ten authors work for Lilly. [8] Lining up two trials cannot rule out that their patients differed, which is what a trial giving both drugs to one group, split by chance, is for.

  8. 09

    Years of drugs after a late transplant

    Doctors at the MD Anderson Cancer Center in Texas gave 13 people with myeloma, a blood cancer that had come back, the antibody daratumumab after a stem-cell transplant late in their illness. [17] For six of them it was a second transplant, and 11 also took the pill pomalidomide. [17] The aim was to keep the cancer from coming back, a job called maintenance. [17] After a median of about four years of follow-up, half of them had gone 45.1 months before the cancer grew again. [17] Four years after the transplant, none had died. [17]

    Why it matters — The study had one group and no comparison, and it was funded by Janssen, part of Johnson & Johnson. [17] Newer immune-cell treatments have challenged the place of late transplants in myeloma care. [17]

  9. 10

    A gene-therapy virus that waits to be unlocked

    Gene therapies often use AAV, a small virus, to carry a new gene into cells, and it can land in the wrong tissue. [12] Researchers reported on 29 September in Nature Materials a coat that stops the virus entering any cell. [12] Different coats come off only in the liver, under near-infrared light, or where chemicals from inflamed tissue build up. [12] In mice with a damaged heart, the virus delivered a repair gene to the heart muscle. [12]

    Why it matters — It has been tested only in mice, and most results in mice are never repeated in people. [12] The aim is to put a gene only where it is needed.

  10. 11

    Fat bubbles built for longer gene messages

    Lipid nanoparticles, tiny fat bubbles, carry mRNA into cells, but they work less well as the message gets longer, a team reported on 28 September in Nature Biotechnology. [13] Gene-editing tools are long messages. [13] The team screened 384 fat-like molecules with a long test message and picked the best, LC-1. [13] In mice it reached editing rates of up to 79% in the liver, 48% in the brain and 27% in the lung, up to four times the standard bubbles. [13]

    The best editing rates the new LC-1 bubbles reached in mice, by organ.

    Why it matters — It also carried a base editor, which changes one DNA letter, to genes including PCSK9, which affects cholesterol, and a cystic fibrosis fault. [13] All of this was in mice. [13]

  11. 12

    Where mRNA vaccine code makes cells slip

    COVID mRNA vaccines use a modified form of one RNA letter, called N1-methylpseudouridine, which stops the body attacking the mRNA itself and makes it last longer. [14] Earlier studies suggested it can make the cell's protein-building machine slip one letter along and make stray protein pieces. [14] A team reported on 28 September in Nature Communications that the slip happens at one short run of letters, UUUC. [14] Rewriting that run as UUCC or UUUU stopped it. [14]

    Why it matters — The slip was measured in cells and test tubes, not in vaccinated people. [14] The authors say careful choice of letters can remove the risk from future mRNA medicines. [14]

  12. 13

    AI helps find a glue that destroys a protein

    Researchers at Baylor College of Medicine used AI and a large protein screen to find molecular glues that destroy VAV1, a signalling protein in immune cells. [15] A molecular glue sticks a target protein to the cell's own disposal system, so the cell breaks it down. [15] Their best compound, NGT-201-18, lowered VAV1 in human T cells and calmed their activity. [15] It also destroyed a second protein, LIMD1, that it was not aimed at. [15]

    Why it matters — VAV1 is linked to blood cancers and to autoimmune diseases, where the immune system attacks the body. [15] The compounds have not yet been tested for safety or in animals with disease. [15]

  13. 14

    Thirty patients switched eye drugs

    Doctors in Varese, Italy, moved 30 patients with wet macular degeneration from faricimab to an 8 mg dose of aflibercept. [16] Wet macular degeneration is leaking blood vessels at the back of the eye, and a leading cause of lost sight in older people. [16] After three monthly injections the retina was less swollen, and eyesight stayed the same. [16] Patients then went longer between injections. [16]

    Why it matters — The study had no comparison group and was partly paid for by Bayer. [16] Longer gaps matter because each dose is a needle into the eye, and frequent injections can make patients give up treatment. [16]

02 Lesson why it matters

A treatment that works at first still has to show it keeps working

A result is measured at one moment, so whether a benefit lasts is a separate question that only years of following the same patients can answer.

The twist

A treatment can show it works within a year or two. Showing that the benefit lasts takes years more with the same patients, and fewer of them stay in the study each year.

The picture

How much uniQure says AMT-130 slowed Huntington's, on two scores. The overall score fell between year three and year four; the daily-life score held.

How it works

  1. A trial checks a benefit at set times, such as one year and three years
  2. The first good number is the one regulators and buyers act on
  3. The disease keeps going, and the body, the cancer or the drug's effect can change
  4. Each year some patients stop coming back, so later numbers rest on fewer people
  5. Only following the same patients for more years shows whether the benefit lasts

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • uniQure's Huntington's gene therapy

    The overall score showed 75% slowing at three years and 44% at four, and more than half the comparison group's four-year records are missing.

  • Years of drugs after a late transplant

    Doctors followed 13 myeloma patients for a median of about four years to learn how long the drugs held the cancer back: 45.1 months for half of them.

  • Roche pill tried on repair-fault cancers

    Tumours that shrank stayed smaller for a median of 10.2 months so far, and some responses were still going, so how long they last is not yet known.

Where you've seen this

Diets

Weight lost in six months is easy to show; weight still off after five years is a separate result.

Phone batteries

A battery's charge on the first day says little about how long it holds after two years of use.

New roads

A fresh road surface looks perfect on opening day, and cracks show only after a few winters.

The catch

A smaller number in a later year does not always mean the treatment faded. If the sickest people drop out of the comparison group, that group looks healthier, and the gap shrinks even when the treatment holds.

And the whole of it

The 12 people in uniQure's high-dose group have been examined for four years so that others with Huntington's can learn whether the treatment lasts. Anyone offered a new medicine relies on strangers like them, who kept coming back to be checked.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Novo Nordisk has lost ground to Eli Lilly, and it is buying drugs that other companies invented: on Tuesday it paid $300 million up front for a Chinese pill no person has taken yet. [3][1] The same day, Novo and Lilly each put out a comparison in which its own drug came out ahead, and neither came from a trial that gave both drugs to one group of patients. [6][7]

Why it works on us — A claim that one drug beats another fits in a headline, while the way it was measured, from old records or from two separate trials, takes a paragraph to explain.

Who gains

  • Jiangsu Hengrui — It collects $300 million now for a drug no one has taken, and keeps the rights in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. [2][1]
  • Novo Nordisk's sales case for Ozempic — Its own records study lets it say that raising the Ozempic dose came with 6% lower heart risk than switching to Mounjaro. [6]
  • Eli Lilly's sales case for Foundayo — A comparison it built from two older trials puts its daily pill ahead of Novo's on weight and blood sugar. [7]
  • Makers of mRNA medicines — They get a design rule: rewriting one run of letters removes a known misreading without dropping the modified letter. [14]

Who pays

  • uniQure's shareholders — The shares fell about 40% at Tuesday's open on the four-year data. [4][5]
  • People with Huntington's waiting for a treatment — The therapy under US review now carries a weaker, disputed four-year result into that review. [4][5]
  • Staff at BioNTech's German sites — Idar-Oberstein, Marburg and Tuebingen will close after no buyer came forward, in a plan affecting up to 1,860 jobs. [10]
  • Novo Nordisk — It pays $300 million before any person has taken the drug, with up to $2.3 billion more to follow if it works. [1][2]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    Whether uniQure's treatment is fading, or its comparison group changed.

    Against the updated database the four-year slowing is 44% and not statistically significant; against the old database, uniQure's after-the-fact analysis gives 54%. [4][5] More than half the four-year comparison records are missing, and Guggenheim analysts say one outlier caused about a third of the drop. [4]

  • 02

    Which three-year number for uniQure is the right one.

    Fierce Biotech reports the 75% slowing uniQure announced a year ago. [4] BioPharma Dive reports a fresh three-year analysis of 15 patients showing 80%. [5] Neither source says how the two analyses relate, and we could not check it.

  • 03

    Whether the US regulator will judge uniQure on the three-year or the four-year data.

    uniQure filed on the three-year data, and its chief medical officer said it is hard to say whether the regulator will rerun the analysis. [4] A decision could come about eight months after filing. [5]

  • 04

    Whether HRS-1596 works, or is safe, in people.

    No one has taken it yet, and a Leerink Partners analyst said there is little data to judge it. [3] Novo gave no dates for its own trials. [2]

  • 05

    Whether Ozempic really carries less heart risk than a switch to Mounjaro.

    Novo's 6% figure comes from health records, not a trial, and only 5.7% of the people switched. [6] The report does not say who chose to switch, or why.

  • 06

    Whether Foundayo beats the Ozempic pill in people with obesity.

    Lilly's comparison lined up two separate diabetes trials, and Novo says people with type 2 diabetes lose less weight. [7] No trial has given both pills to one group.

  • 07

    Whether Roche's WRN pill reaches its target inside tumours.

    The researchers could not show it directly; blood tests and scans only suggested the drug was acting. [11]

  • 08

    Whether the masked virus and the new fat bubbles work in people.

    Both were tested only in mice. [12][13]

04 Hope carry this

In a trial at 46 sites in China, between 71% and 78% of people with early type 2 diabetes who took a daily pill, safiglipron, reached the usual blood-sugar target after 32 weeks. On a dummy pill, 25% did.

Also true today

  • Thirteen people with myeloma, a blood cancer that had come back, had a stem-cell transplant late in their illness and then years of maintenance drugs at MD Anderson in Texas. Four years after the transplant, none of them had died.
  • Scientists found the exact run of letters, UUUC, where a modified letter used in mRNA vaccines makes cells misread the code. Rewriting that run removed the misreading.

Across the beats