Climate & Energy · Wednesday, 23 September 2026
El Nino's heat could cause about 450,000 extra deaths by February, most of them in hot, poor places, a University of Chicago lab estimates
The Climate Impact Lab says this year's record El Nino could cause up to 451,000 extra heat deaths between June and February, with the Sahel hit hardest. Also today: US states sue to stop paid-off wind farms, North Carolina refuses Duke a gas turbine, California makes data centres pay their own way, India wastes clean power for lack of wires, and traffic through Hormuz falls to two ships.
451,000
extra heat deaths the lab expects from El Nino, June to February
about 240,000 of them are still to come, from September onwards
66,800
extra deaths projected for the Sahel, the hardest-hit region
Nigeria alone may see more than 30,000 in the next six months
+1.2C
extra heat on land during this El Nino
which means 44% more extremely hot days than a typical year
The lead story — what happened
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The Climate Impact Lab, a research group at the University of Chicago, estimates this year's El Nino heat could cause up to 451,000 extra deaths between June and the end of February.
[1] -
El Nino is a natural warming of the Pacific Ocean that shifts weather around the world, and New Scientist calls this one record-breaking.
[2] -
About 240,000 of those deaths are forecast for September to February.
[2] The rest are estimated to have already happened since El Nino began in June.[2] -
The lab combined the European weather centre's seasonal forecast with how heat has raised deaths in the past, region by region, across more than 24,000 regions.
[1] [2] -
Land temperatures during this El Nino could run about 1.2C higher than usual, with 44% more extremely hot days than a typical year.
[1] -
The Sahel, the dry belt of countries along the southern edge of the Sahara, is projected to be hit hardest, with about 66,800 extra deaths.
[1] -
The lab also projects about 19,300 extra deaths in Indonesia, 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
[1] New Scientist reports more than 30,000 in Nigeria alone in the next six months.[2] -
Heat is most dangerous where it is already hot and people are poor, said co-author Michael Greenstone.
[1] Richer places have more air conditioning, reliable water and working hospitals.[1] -
Most deaths in the next six months will be in the southern half of the world, where spring and summer are starting.
[2] A second wave is expected in the north after February.[2] -
The oldest people are most at risk, then babies and children aged four or under.
[2] -
Christopher Callahan, a scientist at Indiana University, called the results plausible.
[2] He said the total depends on the forecast being right, and leaves out El Nino's floods, fires and disease.[2] -
The report asks governments for heat warnings, cooling centres, water stations, protection for outdoor workers, and money released before the hottest weeks arrive.
[1]
- Estimated already, since June210,000 deaths · 47%
- Forecast, September to February240,000 deaths · 53%
Who is involved
-
Climate Impact Lab
a research group at the University of Chicago; it made the estimate
-
Michael Greenstone
an economist, the lab's co-founder and a co-author; he says heat is deadliest where it is already hot and poor
-
Emily Grover-Kopec
a researcher at the Rhodium Group, a research firm; she co-wrote the study and expects the numbers to grow
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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
the European weather centre whose six-month forecast the study used
How it unfolded
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June 2026 El Nino begins, and the lab's count of extra heat deaths starts
[2] -
23 Sep The Climate Impact Lab publishes its estimate of up to 451,000 deaths
[1] -
Sep to Feb About 240,000 more deaths forecast, mostly in the southern half of the world
[2] -
After Feb El Nino lasts into the northern spring, and a second wave of deaths is expected there
[2]
Where this points
Watch whether the countries named in the report, from Nigeria to India and Brazil, open cooling centres and release money before their hottest weeks, as the authors ask.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
El Nino's heat could cause up to 451,000 extra deaths by February.
North Carolina's regulator refused Duke Energy a $584 million gas turbine meant partly for data centres.
India switched off clean power early this year because its power lines were full.
Chinese solar cell prices fell for a third week as factories make more than buyers want.
Only two cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
The rest of the day
30 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
States sue to stop paid-off wind farms
New York's attorney general, Letitia James, filed a suit joined by Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont.
[5] It seeks to block two Trump administration deals that pay companies to cancel offshore wind farms.[5] California's attorney general, Rob Bonta, sued separately over a project off California's coast.[5] The two deals would give Invenergy, a Chicago energy developer, and Bluepoint Wind $1.4 billion of taxpayer money.[5] Why it matters — Across the country the Trump administration has promised nearly $4 billion to companies to walk away from projects.
[5] James says the lost wind power will push up electricity bills in the states that planned on it.[5] -
03
North Carolina refuses Duke a gas turbine
North Carolina's utility regulator refused on 18 September to let Duke Energy build a 255-megawatt gas turbine at its Smith power site.
[6] Duke has the biggest spending plan of any regulated US utility, $103 billion.[6] The regulator called the $584 million price 'staggering' and said the extra demand Duke expects comes mostly from data centres that may never arrive.[6] It also said Duke had not shown how it would keep its promise not to shift data-centre costs onto other customers.[6] Why it matters — The regulator's own staff had warned that Duke is heading for too little spare power by 2031 and has no quicker option ready.
[6] Duke says it is disappointed and is weighing its next steps.[6] -
04
California makes data centres pay their own way
California's governor, Gavin Newsom, signed seven laws on Monday aimed at data centres, the huge buildings of computers that run AI.
[7] They require data centres to pay for the grid upgrades and power plants they need, and to carry more of the cost of preventing wildfires.[7] Data centres must also report their power use every month and tell local governments how much water they use.[7] [8] An industry group, the Data Center Coalition, warned the laws will push projects to other states.[8] Why it matters — California has 296 data centres, the third most of any US state, and its household power bills are among the highest in the country.
[7] The laws decide in advance who pays when a giant new customer asks for power.[7] -
05
Google pays to get more from Georgia's reactors
Georgia Power, part of the US utility Southern Company, signed a deal with Google on Monday to pay for upgrades at its Vogtle and Hatch nuclear plants.
[9] New turbines, pumps and cooling equipment would let the reactors make about 96 megawatts more electricity from the same plants.[9] Georgia Power says customers who are not part of the deal will not pay for the upgrades.[9] Georgia's Public Service Commission, the state utility regulator, still has to approve it.[9] Why it matters — Demand from data centres is pushing US utilities to get more out of reactors they already have, which make power day and night without carbon.
[9] Georgia Power projects about $900 million in benefits to its customers over the plants' lives.[9] -
06
Biofuel rules could need land the size of Germany
World biofuel output could rise nearly 70% by 2030 from 2025, a study published on Tuesday found, because governments want home-grown fuel since the Iran war.
[10] Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the US and the EU have proposed or adopted rules to mix more crop-based fuel into petrol and diesel.[10] If every proposal happens, the land needed for those crops could more than double from 2023.[10] That is an extra 36 million hectares, roughly the size of Germany.[10] Why it matters — Most biofuels are made from food crops, and sugar and corn prices have already risen about 20% since the war began.
[10] The authors warn that one more shock, such as bad weather, could push food prices up sharply.[10] -
07
India throws away clean power for lack of wires
India's renewable power has grown from about 4 gigawatts a decade ago to 300 gigawatts, 54% of all its power capacity, the BBC reports.
[11] Its power lines have not kept up.[11] Full lines caused nearly two-thirds of the clean power India had to switch off in the first three months of 2026, about 300 gigawatt-hours, says Ember, an energy research group.[11] One in four big lines between states is more than a year late.[11] Why it matters — India now adds about 51 gigawatts of clean power a year, against 10 to 15 when the grid could keep up.
[11] Ember calls the gap between plants and wires the biggest risk to India's 2030 target of 500 gigawatts.[11] -
08
Seven of nine planetary limits crossed
A report released on Monday by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany found the world has broken seven of nine planetary boundaries.
[12] These are limits that scientists have set for the conditions that keep the planet healthy.[12] The institute's director, Johan Rockstrom, told New York Climate Week the world is very close to crossing thresholds that cannot be undone.[12] Edward Miliband, a British cabinet minister, called clean energy a matter of national security at the same event.[12] Why it matters — The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, told the same gathering that power-hungry AI is raising pollution from coal, oil and gas.
[12] The head of the group that organises Climate Week said AI's effect on the environment is one of its main topics.[12] -
09
The world is short of its 30% nature goal
Governments will fall well short of protecting 30% of the world's land and seas by 2030, research led by the US group Campaign for Nature found on Wednesday.
[13] Nearly 200 countries agreed that goal, called 30 by 30, in 2022.[13] Protection now covers 20% of land and 10% of the sea.[13] Of the ocean under protection plans, only 3.5% is counted as protected in practice, and spending on the sea is $1.8 billion against $16 billion needed.[13] Why it matters — An official UN progress report is due at next month's nature talks in Yerevan, Armenia.
[13] A draft in July said none of the deal's 23 goals will be met without much faster action.[13] -
10
Hurricane Polo strengthens off Mexico
Hurricane Polo grew into a Category 4 storm in the Pacific off Mexico on Monday, with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), and could reach Category 5.
[4] It is forecast to run along the coast for days without landing.[4] It brings heavy rain and a risk of floods and landslides to the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.[4] In the Atlantic, no hurricane has formed yet this year, the latest start on record.[4] Why it matters — AP reports that this year's El Nino is breaking up Atlantic storms before they grow.
[4] The same El Nino is behind the heat deaths in the lead story.[1] -
11
Typhoon Dujuan kills five in Japan
Typhoon Dujuan killed five people in Japan and left six missing, Japan's disaster agency said on Tuesday.
[3] Oshima, an island south of Tokyo, got 27 inches (about 69cm) of rain in 24 hours, a September record.[3] More than 74,000 people were still told to leave their homes, mostly in Chiba, east of Tokyo.[3] Nearly 400 flights were cancelled at Haneda, Tokyo's busiest airport, on Monday.[3] Why it matters — The storm delayed Japan's prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, on her way to the UN in New York.
[3] The New York Times reports that El Nino has helped make this year's storms stronger.[3] -
12
Hormuz traffic falls to two ships
Only two cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane out of the Gulf, on Monday, down from ten the day before, shipping data showed.
[14] Before the Iran war began on 28 February, about 125 large ships a day used it.[14] A crude oil tanker and a gas tanker were hit by projectiles in separate attacks on Sunday and Monday, a shipping security firm said.[14] Nobody has said who fired.[14] Why it matters — Before the war the strait carried about a fifth of the world's daily oil and liquefied gas.
[14] Its near-closure is behind the fuel prices that run through several of today's stories.[10] [14] -
13
Saudi Arabia's pipeline pumps again
Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West oil pipeline on Tuesday and could resume exports from Yanbu, its Red Sea port, three sources told Reuters.
[15] Drone attacks had forced it to shut the pipeline on 13 September, halting oil loadings at Yanbu.[15] Two of the sources said it was pumping at a low rate for now.[15] Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, did not reply to Reuters.[15] Why it matters — Oil loaded at Yanbu goes out through the Red Sea, so it does not need the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has almost stopped.
[14] [15] -
14
Judge throws out Michigan's case against oil majors
Jane Beckering, a US federal judge in Grand Rapids, dismissed Michigan's lawsuit against BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell and the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.
[16] Michigan's attorney general, Dana Nessel, had accused them of working together to hold back electric cars and renewable energy.[16] The judge said the link between the claimed plot and the prices Michigan residents paid was too distant.[16] Judges in six other states and Puerto Rico have thrown out similar cases.[16] Why it matters — The oil companies still face many other lawsuits from US states and cities that want them to pay for climate damage.
[16] -
15
Volkswagen warns of an $11.5 billion hit
Volkswagen, Europe's biggest carmaker, flagged 10 billion euros ($11.5 billion) of one-off costs on 18 September, mostly at its sports-car brand Porsche.
[17] It now expects a profit margin of 1% at most this year, down from 4% to 5.5%.[17] It blamed a shrinking market in China and buyers moving faster to battery cars, which earn it less.[17] VW's top executive in China said on Tuesday that China's car market will shrink about 20% this year.[18] Why it matters — VW has already agreed another 50,000 job cuts and possible factory closures.
[17] Its shares fell 5.6% on the warning.[17] -
16
Seat may be the first brand lost to Chinese rivals
Volkswagen is weighing whether to keep Seat, its Spanish car brand, beyond its current models, Reuters reported.
[19] Seat has launched no new model since 2020 and has no electric car planned, while its sister brand Cupra sells three.[19] Seat would be the first long-standing car brand to disappear since the early 2010s.[19] Meanwhile GAC, a Chinese carmaker, launched in France on Monday and plans 12 electric and hybrid models there by 2030.[20] Why it matters — European, US, Japanese and Korean carmakers sold 12.6 million fewer cars a year in 2025 than in 2019, and Chinese rivals took much of that share.
[19] Seat's union leader fears for jobs if the brand goes.[19] -
17
Chinese solar cells get cheaper again
Prices for Chinese solar cells fell for a third week and are about 12% below their late-August peak, the price agency OPIS reported.
[21] Buyers abroad had stocked up before new US import rules start on 4 December, and that buying is fading.[21] China made 506 gigawatts of cells from January to August, 14.6% less than a year earlier.[21] Ten big makers of polysilicon, the raw material, reportedly agreed to run at 35% of capacity, but nobody has confirmed it.[21] Why it matters — Cheaper cells lower the cost of building solar farms everywhere.
[21] The reported factory cut shows Chinese makers trying to stop prices falling further.[21] -
18
A 15-gigawatt order for Chinese solar panels
China Energy Engineering Corp, a state-owned builder, opened a tender to buy 15 gigawatts of solar panels, one of the largest by a Chinese state company this year.
[22] It has separate lots for three designs, which will show how much of big projects newer designs can win from the most common type, called TOPCon.[22] In another state tender, back-contact panels, a newer design, cost about 8% more than TOPCon ones.[22] Why it matters — A buyer this big tells factories which panel designs will sell, at a time when China has more solar factories than buyers.
[21] [22] -
19
Canada drops its duties on Chinese solar panels
Canada's trade tribunal ended its review of extra import duties on Chinese solar panels and cancelled the 2021 order behind them, pv magazine reported.
[23] Canada's border agency has stopped collecting the duties.[23] The tribunal gave no reasons, but under Canadian law it can end a review when local manufacturers do not take part.[23] In January Canada also agreed to let in 49,000 Chinese electric cars a year at a 6.1% tariff instead of 100%.[23] Why it matters — The US is going the other way, keeping its duties on Chinese solar and extending them this year to cells, wafers and polysilicon.
[23] The two neighbours now treat Chinese solar very differently.[23] -
20
US solar factory spending reaches $12.2 billion
Spending on US solar factories since the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, a law that paid for clean energy, will reach $12.2 billion by the end of 2026, Terawatt PV Research estimates.
[24] That is more than half of all US solar factory spending since 2001.[24] A record $4.14 billion was spent in 2024, over 60% of it by two companies, First Solar and Qcells.[24] Why it matters — The report expects new US import rules, which start in December, to bring more factory building.
[21] [24] Much of the spending so far went to First Solar's factories in Alabama and Louisiana and Qcells' in Georgia.[24] -
21
Two forecasts for US batteries, far apart
RMI, a US clean-energy research group, said big grid batteries will keep growing about 30% a year because they cut costs and pay local taxes.
[25] Its report found batteries supplied 13% to 19% of California's power in the tightest hours of 2024, saving more than $29 million.[25] But the 30% comes from a 2024 forecast by Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy that now expects big battery building to stall in 2026.[25] Why it matters — Wood Mackenzie now expects only 8% growth a year to 2031.
[25] Analysts blame new US limits on foreign-made grid equipment and tariffs on parts tied to China.[25] -
22
How to buy clean power when supplies are shaky
IRENA, the international agency for renewable energy, published advice on how governments' power auctions can cope with supply shocks.
[26] Supply problems have raised equipment, shipping and borrowing costs for renewable projects.[26] It suggests adjusting contract prices when costs rise, allowing realistic build times, and requiring local parts only in large, steady markets such as China, India and Turkey.[27] It warns strict local-parts rules in small markets can cause the delays they aim to prevent.[27] Why it matters — Most new wind and solar is bought through auctions like these.
[27] How they share rising costs decides who pays: the builders, the buyers of the power, or taxpayers.[27] -
23
Spain will pay power plants to stand ready
Spain's energy ministry announced a capacity market on 16 September.
[28] It pays power plants, batteries and big users for being ready to supply power, or cut their use, when the grid operator asks.[28] New contracts will go only to renewables, storage and demand projects, not to fossil plants.[28] Spain also raised planned spending on its high-voltage grid to 2030 by more than 30%, to over 17 billion euros.[28] Why it matters — Electricity customers will pay for it.
[28] Use at the grid's busiest times, at most 10% of the year, will pay more, to push use into quieter hours.[28] -
24
New England backs Maine against a utility bonus
The group representing New England's governors backed Maine's complaint to FERC, the US federal energy regulator, against a bonus paid to power-line owners.
[29] FERC lets these utilities earn an extra 0.5 percentage points of profit for joining a regional grid organisation.[29] Maine now requires them to join by law, so it says the bonus pays for nothing.[29] Maine customers paid about $700,000 of it in 2024.[29] Why it matters — Connecticut, Maryland and New Jersey passed similar laws this year, as states look for parts of power bills they can remove.
[29] The utilities call Maine's law unlawful.[29] -
25
Tesla to run truck chargers in California
Tesla will run public Megacharging sites for heavy electric trucks at three new Forum Mobility truck depots in California, adding 30 megawatts of charging.
[30] Forum's Rancho Dominguez depot already has fleet orders for more than 330 Tesla Semi trucks.[30] Forum also added two Megachargers at its depot in the Port of Long Beach, open since December 2024.[30] Tesla plans to launch the Semi in Europe next year.[30] Why it matters — Fleet operators have already committed more than 330 trucks to one depot, and that site will also be open to other trucking firms.
[30] -
26
Hitachi builds a $528 million transformer factory
Hitachi Energy will build a $528 million factory in Gallman, Mississippi, more than doubling its US output of small and medium power transformers, the equipment that changes the voltage of electricity on the grid.
[31] Production starts in 2029, and it will be Hitachi Energy's biggest single US investment.[31] Waiting lists for transformers are slowing grid building as data centres, factories and electric heating raise demand.[31] Why it matters — Even a new factory takes until 2029 to help, so the shortage of grid equipment runs through most of this decade.
[31] -
27
Wind and sun dropping out together, for longer
Sudden, long lulls in wind and solar power, called flash energy droughts, will last longer as the climate warms, a study in Nature Climate Change found on 21 September.
[32] Under a low-emissions path, their length rises about 26% for wind and 30% for solar.[32] When both fall at once, it rises 156%.[32] About 71% of the world's wind and solar capacity faces more of them.[32] Why it matters — The authors link these lulls to unmet demand and higher power costs.
[32] They say choosing where to build new farms can cut the risk.[32] -
28
Where warming has sped up
A study in Nature Communications, published on 22 September, mapped where the pace of warming has increased since 1970.
[33] It found the speed-ups mostly in the middle latitudes of the northern half of the world.[33] They started at different times, from the 1980s to the 2010s.[33] The study joins a debate over whether global warming is speeding up after record heat in 2023 and 2024.[33] Why it matters — One explanation the paper discusses is cleaner shipping fuel since a 2020 rule, which cut pollution that had been cooling the planet.
[33] -
29
A call for US states to plan their power again
The Clean Air Task Force, a US environmental group, said states with open power markets should bring back long-term planning.
[34] Market prices only look a few years ahead, it says, so nuclear, geothermal, offshore wind and long-lasting storage struggle to get built.[34] It points to Illinois's new law, in force since June, as a model.[34] Why it matters — The report says New York is behind on its clean-energy goals largely because offshore wind projects were cancelled or delayed.
[34] Those are the same kind of projects in today's lawsuit story.[5] [34] -
30
Ghana's solar falls short of its target
Ghana had 276.7 megawatts of solar panels at the end of 2025, its energy ministry said in a new renewable energy plan to 2030.
[35] That is below its targets, including 347.5 megawatts of large solar farms.[35] The plan now aims for another 852 megawatts of solar farms and 214 megawatts on rooftops and businesses.[35] It also wants mini-grids to grow from about 4 to 444 megawatts, and 1,970 megawatt-hours of batteries.[35] Why it matters — The plan expects private companies to pay for 41% to 70% of the building, depending on the type.
[35] Poorer countries outside China get only about 15% of the world's clean-energy investment.[11] -
31
A data-centre equipment maker lists for $5.4 billion
Accelevation, a US company that makes power, cooling and building kits for data centres, is seeking a value of up to $5.37 billion in a stock market listing.
[36] It aims to raise up to $720 million, mostly to pay off debt.[36] Goldman Sachs, the US bank, expects data centres' power demand worldwide to rise 170% between 2025 and 2030.[36] Why it matters — Investors are paying up for the equipment inside data centres in the same week California and North Carolina pushed back on who pays for their power.
[6] [7]
Why the same extra heat kills more where it is already hot
A couple of extra degrees is a nuisance in a cool, rich city and deadly in a hot, poor one, because deaths climb faster the hotter it already is.
The twist
A couple of extra degrees is a nuisance in a cool, rich city. In a hot, poor one the same couple of degrees kills, because deaths climb faster the hotter it already is.
The picture
How it works
- Every place has a temperature at which the fewest people die
- Move away from it and deaths rise, slowly at first, then fast
- A hot place with little cooling already sits far up the steep part
- El Nino adds a couple of degrees to many places at once
- Up there, those same extra degrees add many more deaths
- Air conditioning, water and clinics make the climb gentler
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
-
India throws away clean power for lack of wires
India's lines coped while it added 10 to 15 gigawatts a year. At 51 gigawatts a year they no longer can, and clean power gets switched off.
-
Biofuel rules could need land the size of Germany
Sugar and corn prices are already up about 20%. The authors warn that one more shock, like bad weather, would now push food prices up sharply.
-
Wind and sun dropping out together, for longer
A lull in wind alone gets about 26% longer, and a lull in sun alone about 30%. When both hit together, the lull gets 156% longer.
Where you've seen this
Driving speed
Going 10 km/h faster matters little in a car park and a great deal on a motorway, because crash damage climbs steeply with speed.
A fever
One degree takes a person from 37C to 38C and they feel unwell. The same degree from 40C to 41C is an emergency.
A river in flood
The first 10cm of water stays in the channel. The same 10cm at the top of the bank goes into the houses.
The catch
The shape of the curve is different in every place, and it can be changed: cooling, water and warnings make it flatter, so the same forecast heat can kill far fewer people than the estimate.
And the whole of it
A farmer in Nigeria, a pensioner in India and an office worker in air-conditioned Europe live under the same El Nino. Whether each of them gets through the hottest week depends mostly on fans, water and clinics that were built, or not built, long before it.
What is really going on
A University of Chicago lab expects this year's El Nino heat to cause up to 451,000 extra deaths by February, and most of them will be in hot, poor places such as the Sahel, where people have little cooling, water or medical care.
Why it works on us — A single worldwide total of 450,000 is easy to repeat and hard to picture, while the lab's own numbers show the deaths piling up in a handful of places, which is where anything can actually be done.
Who gains
-
Invenergy and Bluepoint Wind, two wind developers
— The Trump administration's deals would pay them $1.4 billion of taxpayer money to cancel their offshore wind projects.
[5] -
Google
— It gets about 96 megawatts of extra nuclear power from Georgia Power's existing reactors, which Georgia Power says other customers will not pay for.
[9] -
Growers of corn, sugar cane and other biofuel crops
— New blending rules in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the US and the EU could push biofuel output up nearly 70% by 2030.
[10] -
Chinese carmakers such as GAC
— They are taking market share from European, US, Japanese and Korean brands, and GAC plans 12 models in France by 2030.
[19] [20] -
Chinese solar panel makers selling to Canada
— Canada has stopped collecting its extra duties on their panels.
[23]
Who pays
-
People in the Sahel and in Nigeria
— The lab projects about 66,800 extra heat deaths in the Sahel, and New Scientist reports more than 30,000 in Nigeria alone in the next six months.
[1] [2] -
The oldest people and babies in hot countries
— They are the groups most likely to die from the extra heat, the study finds.
[2] -
Families who buy food
— Crop land for biofuel could grow by 36 million hectares, and the study's authors warn one more shock could push food prices up sharply.
[10] -
Clean power producers in India
— Nearly two-thirds of the clean power India switched off early this year was lost because the lines were full.
[11] -
Workers at Seat in Spain
— Volkswagen may drop the brand, and its union leader fears for jobs.
[19] -
Power customers in Maine
— They paid about $700,000 in 2024 towards a bonus the state says rewards power-line owners for something the law already requires.
[29]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
-
01
How many of the El Nino deaths fall in each country, and over what period.
AP gives 19,300 for Indonesia, 15,800 for India and 13,300 for Brazil and says the figures cover June to February.
[1] New Scientist gives 19,000, 16,000 and 13,000 and says they cover the next six months.[2] We used AP's figures and cannot tell which period is right. -
02
Whether the forecast behind the 451,000 figure will come true.
The count of about 240,000 future deaths depends on one European six-month weather forecast, and it counts only deaths from heat, not El Nino's floods, fires or disease.
[2] -
03
Whether courts will stop the Trump administration's payments to cancel wind farms.
New York, California and seven other states have only just filed their suits, and no judge has ruled on them.
[5] -
04
How North Carolina will meet the shortfall its regulator's own staff warned about.
The regulator refused Duke's turbine, but its staff said Duke is heading towards a shortage of spare power by 2031 and has no quicker option ready. Duke has not said what it will do next.
[6] -
05
Whether China's polysilicon makers really agreed to cut output to 35%.
The agreement has only been reported, not confirmed, and one wafer maker said its effect still has to be checked.
[21] -
06
Why Canada's trade tribunal dropped its duties on Chinese solar panels.
The tribunal has not published its reasons, and no Canadian panel maker has said whether it asked to keep them.
[23] -
07
Who fired on the two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The shipping security firm that reported the attacks says responsibility is unconfirmed.
[14] -
08
How fast US grid batteries will really grow.
RMI says about 30% a year, but that figure comes from a 2024 forecast; Wood Mackenzie, which made it, now expects 8% a year to 2031.
[25] -
09
Whether Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline can stay open.
It restarted on Tuesday at a low rate after drone attacks shut it on 13 September, and Saudi Aramco has said nothing about it.
[15]
On a hot afternoon in July, clean power briefly met more than half of India's peak electricity demand. India's renewable capacity has grown from about 4 gigawatts a decade ago to 300 gigawatts, reaching its target five years early.
Also true today
- In the tightest hours on California's grid in 2024, big batteries supplied 13% to 19% of the power and saved more than $29 million. In a record heat wave in 2022, 3.4 gigawatts of batteries met 6% of the state's needs, two years after a milder heat wave had brought rolling blackouts.
- Since the world's nature deal was agreed in 2022, governments have put another 1.3 million square kilometres of land and 6 million square kilometres of sea under formal protection.
- No hurricane has formed in the Atlantic yet this year, the latest start to a season on record.
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