Climate & Energy · Thursday, 24 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Arctic sea ice tied its 10th-lowest summer, and all 20 of the lowest have come since 2007

Climate & Energy 27 sources

The Arctic's yearly ice low has been fairly steady in recent years because cloudier summers slowed the melt, but every one of the 20 lowest summers on record came from 2007 on. El Nino set a record, Bolivia ended cheap diesel, and the developer of a $20 billion data centre says $1 met its guarantee.

4.6m sq km

of Arctic sea ice at its lowest point this year, on 12 September

tied with 2008, 2010 and 2025 as the 10th-lowest since satellite records began [1]

20 of 20

of the lowest Arctic summers on record came from 2007 to 2026

steady satellite measurements began in late 1978 [1]

300,000 sq km

of Antarctic sea ice lost in six days in August

winds packed the thin outer ice together; scientists called the size unusual [1]

The lead story — what happened

Arctic sea ice, the frozen seawater that floats on the ocean around the North Pole, shrank to its smallest area of the year on 12 September. [1]
NASA and the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which measure the ice by satellite, said it covered about 4.6 million square kilometres. [1]
That ties 2008, 2010 and 2025 as the 10th-lowest summer low since steady satellite records began in late 1978. [1]
The ice grows through the dark, cold winter and melts back each summer, usually reaching its lowest point in September. [1]
This year it reached its winter peak on 15 March and then melted until 12 September. [2]
The 20 lowest summer lows ever measured all came in the 20 years from 2007 to 2026. [1]
The September low has been fairly steady in recent years. NASA scientist Linette Boisvert says more cloud over the last decade has kept sunshine from speeding up the melt. [1]
"We've plateaued, but we're still low," said Walt Meier of the NSIDC, comparing today with the early years of the record. [1]
At the other end of the planet, Antarctic sea ice lost about 300,000 square kilometres in six days in August, then started growing again. [1]
Meier said winds pushed and packed the thin outer ice together, and called the size of the drop unusual. The scientists will not yet call Antarctica's lower recent peaks a trend. [1]
Shipping is already moving into the Arctic. On 15 August a Chinese container ship set off for Europe on a new regular route around Russia's northern coast. [3][4]
Its operator, Sea Legend, calls the route the Ice Silk Road. Another Chinese firm plans to move more than 1 million tonnes of cargo that way next summer. [3]

Who is involved

NASA and the NSIDC

the US space agency and the University of Colorado's snow and ice data centre; they track the ice by satellite and announced this year's low
Walt Meier

a senior research scientist at the NSIDC; he says the summer melt has levelled off but the ice is still low
Linette Boisvert

a sea ice scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center; she links the flat decade to cloudier summers
Sea Legend

a Chinese shipping company; it runs the first regular container route from China to Europe over the top of Russia

How it unfolded

15 Mar Arctic sea ice reaches its winter peak [2]
August Antarctic sea ice loses about 300,000 sq km in six days [1]
15 Aug a Chinese container ship leaves for Europe by the Arctic route [3]
12 Sep Arctic sea ice reaches its yearly low, tied 10th lowest [1]
Late Sep or Oct Antarctic sea ice expected to reach its winter peak, announced once growth stops [1]

Where this points

Watch the Antarctic winter peak, due in late September or early October: another low peak would add to a run that NASA and NSIDC scientists are still not ready to call a trend. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Hot oceans High↑

A key patch of the Pacific was 3.05C above average on 19 September, beating the 2015 record. [5] That warm water helped Hurricane Polo reach Category 5 off Mexico. [5] Southern Africa, where strong El Ninos often bring drought, starts planting in October. [6]

Diesel costs High→

Bolivia ended cheap diesel for trucks, buses and tractors to get a loan from the IMF, the international lender. [7] In the US, diesel averaged $6.52 a gallon, half a cent below a record. [9]

Data centres needing power Building↑

The developer of a $20 billion data centre planned in Illinois says a $1 payment met its credit guarantee to the local power company. [10] New Jersey fined a data centre $1.07 million for running 62 gas generators without permits. [11]

Land wanted for new uses Building↑

In New Zealand, about 3,300 square kilometres of sheep and beef farms were sold for carbon-credit forests since 2017. [18] Texas solar farms sign land leases with farmers that run 25 to 30 years. [17] A mining company wants to lift metal-rich rocks off the Pacific seabed. [15]

The rest of the day

19 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Hurricane Polo reaches Category 5 as El Nino sets a record

Hurricane Polo grew into a Category 5 storm, the strongest kind, in the Pacific off Mexico this week. [5] Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, said it was not expected to hit the coast directly, but warned Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan to stay alert. [5] Up to 15cm of rain and dangerous surf are forecast. [5] The US weather agency NOAA said very warm ocean water was feeding the storm. [5] On 19 September a key patch of the Pacific was 3.05C above average, beating the 3.02C record from 2015. [5]

Why it matters — El Nino is a natural warming of the Pacific that comes every two to seven years and heats the planet for about a year. [5] This one now holds the daily record, and its peak is not expected until later this year. [5]
03
Southern Africa has weeks to prepare for El Nino

Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the research group Berkeley Earth, wrote in the journal Nature that forecasts give this El Nino a more than 90% chance of beating every one since the 1870s. [6] In early September the central Pacific was about 2.9C above its 30-year average. [6] In the four strongest El Ninos between 1980 and 2016, southern Africa had about an 80% chance of a dry rainy season. [6] Planting there begins in October. [6]

Why it matters — South Africa's maize harvest fell by nearly half in the 2015-16 El Nino. [6] Rain is already falling off in Indonesia, where El Nino fires and haze in 2015 were linked to about 100,000 early deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. [6]
04
Bolivia ends cheap diesel for an IMF loan

Bolivia's Congress approved a $1.9 billion, three-year loan from the International Monetary Fund, the lender countries turn to when they run short of dollars. [7][8] Hours later President Rodrigo Paz ended subsidies on diesel, the fuel for trucks, buses and tractors, which now sells at world prices. [7] Falling gas exports had left Bolivia short of dollars to import fuel, and shortages began in 2023. [7] When Paz's government took over, only $52 million of its $3.17 billion in reserves was cash it could spend. [8]

Why it matters — The main labour federation says the cuts will raise living costs, and road blockades paralysed the country in June and July. [7] Bolivia's government is paying about $79 million in cash help to 2.9 million Bolivians, and the IMF's board still has to approve the loan. [7]
05
US diesel near a record as oil dips

Brent crude, the world's main oil price, traded below $100 a barrel on Wednesday as traders hoped talks at the UN could calm the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. [9] Diesel stayed dear. The US average was $6.52 a gallon, half a cent below Tuesday's record, according to the motoring group AAA. [9] Some Republicans in close races want US diesel exports banned, and President Trump said he was open to it. [9]

Why it matters — Supporters say a ban would bring relief to farmers and truckers. [9] The oil industry and some analysts warn it could backfire and make the global energy crisis worse. [9]
06
A $1 guarantee for a $20 billion data centre

The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), which oversees power lines between states, on Tuesday rejected power company ComEd's attempt to cancel a grid agreement with a data centre planned in Joliet, Illinois. [10] PowerHouse Hillwood's project would draw 1.8 gigawatts and cost $20 billion. [10] The developer says it met the deal's credit rule by posting $1. [10] FERC left that dispute to a federal court. [10]

Why it matters — Commissioner David Rosner said deposits keep a project's risk with the developer, not the public, and Commissioner David LaCerte called the $1 an embarrassing legal fiction. [10] Grid operators must answer FERC's June orders on connecting very large users by mid-November. [10]
07
New Jersey fines a data centre for 62 generators

New Jersey fined DataOne $1.07 million on Tuesday for running 62 gas-powered generators at its data centre in Vineland without the required permits. [11] State officials said it is the largest fine New Jersey has issued to a data centre operator. [11] The campus, due to be finished this year, needs 350 megawatts, enough to power a medium-sized city. [11] Neighbours have filed a federal lawsuit over noise from the site. [11]

Why it matters — Data centres are racing to find power faster than utilities can build grid connections, so some install their own generators. [11] Governor Mikie Sherrill said the build-out has to benefit communities in New Jersey. [11]
08
US narrows what counts as killing a protected animal

A 14 September memo from Brian Nesvik, director of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, says killing an endangered animal breaks the law only when the animal was deliberately targeted. [12][13] For decades the agency held people liable even for accidental harm to species such as grizzly bears, manatees and spotted owls. [12] Experts say timber companies could now log forests even knowing it would kill protected birds. [12]

Why it matters — Dan Ashe, who ran the agency under President Obama, called it a huge loophole. [12] Twenty states and Washington DC sued on 9 September over earlier changes to what the law counts as harm. [13]
09
The Amazon on the ballot in Brazil

Brazilians elect a president on 4 October. [14] Former president Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest and cannot run, but his son Flavio, a 45-year-old senator, is on the ballot. [14] During Jair Bolsonaro's presidency, from 2019 to 2023, clearing of the Amazon rainforest soared and reached a 15-year high in 2021. [14] Claudio Angelo of Brazil's Climate Observatory expects Flavio to govern the same way, or worse. [14]

Why it matters — Flavio Bolsonaro's candidacy has raised fears for the future of the rainforest. [14] Angelo called the vote a do-or-die moment for the Amazon. [14]
10
The case for mining the deep seabed

Gerard Barron, head of the Metals Company, argued at a New York Times event on Wednesday for mining metal-coated rocks from the Pacific seabed. [15] The fist-sized rocks hold nickel and cobalt, which go into batteries and electronics. [15] His company applied for US permits after President Trump called for them in international waters. [15] The US has not ratified the UN treaty on the law of the sea. [15]

Why it matters — The International Seabed Authority, 171 countries plus the EU, has debated mining rules for over a decade and says they should be ready by the end of the year. [15] Scientists still know little about what mining would do to life on the deep sea floor. [15]
11
The world buys China's batteries and grid gear

Buyers paid about $75 billion for Chinese batteries and grid equipment in the first seven months of 2026, around $20 billion more than a year before, according to data from the energy research group Ember. [16] Imports of Chinese solar systems averaged about $2.7 billion a month this year, less than half their March 2023 peak. [16] A Reuters commentary argues the panels were a victim of their own success. [16]

Jan-Jul 2025$55bn
Jan-Jul 2026$75bn
What buyers paid for Chinese batteries and grid equipment in the first seven months of each year, in billions of dollars. The 2025 bar is worked out from the $20 billion rise.

Why it matters — Forty countries have each spent more than $1 billion on Chinese solar systems since 2018. [16] Their power companies now need batteries and grid equipment to store and move all that midday power. [16]
12
Solar spreads across America's oil state

Texas, the biggest oil producer in the US, overtook California earlier this year as the country's largest generator of power from solar farms, the BBC reports. [17] On hot afternoons solar now supplies about a third of the state's electricity, says Mark Stover of the Texas Solar and Storage Association. [17] The developer OCI sells power at $40 a megawatt hour, fixed for 25 years, while new US coal plants cost nearly $90. [17]

Solar farm, fixed for 25 years$40 per MWh
New US coal plant$90 per MWh
The price of electricity from one Texas solar developer against new coal plants, in dollars per megawatt hour. The coal figure is nearly $90.

Why it matters — Farmers lease their land for 25 to 30 years, and one, Cargil, earns $200,000 a year from 600 acres, which kept his farm going through drought. [17] In Franklin County some residents fought new farms over cleared oak trees and fears of battery fires. [17]
13
New Zealand's carbon forests buy up sheep farms

New Zealand has approved nearly 9,000 square kilometres of forest that earns carbon credits, which polluters buy to make up for their emissions. [18] Because credits pay long before the trees are cut, forestry investors can outbid sheep and beef farmers for land. [18] About 3,300 square kilometres of those farms were sold for trees since 2017, and grazing land prices rose 9.7%. [18] In the farming area around Pongaroa the rugby club folded in 2022. [18]

Why it matters — New Zealand's government climate advisers expect these forests to deliver a quarter of the cuts needed for New Zealand's 2026-2030 target. [18] Critics say that lets polluters buy credits instead of cleaning up, and in the latest yearly figures farm sales for forestry slowed to about 160 square kilometres. [18]
14
Heatwave seasons start earlier and end later

A study in the journal Nature Climate Change looked at heatwaves on land from 1979 to 2023. [19] It found the first heatwave of the year now arrives about 3.3 days earlier each decade, and the last ends about 5.4 days later. [19] The heatwave season grew by about 8.7 days a decade, and got longer across 92% of the world's land. [19] Dry regions shifted more than humid ones. [19]

Starts earlier, per decade3.29 days
Ends later, per decade5.41 days
Season longer, per decade8.71 days
How heatwave timing on land changed each decade from 1979 to 2023, in days.

Why it matters — The authors say early warning systems and plans for heat need to account for when heat arrives, not only how hot it gets. [19] The study also found heatwaves have recently tended to arrive more suddenly. [19]
15
A short warning helps people spot a weak climate argument

Researchers tested 4,000 people in four studies on how well they could tell strong climate arguments from weak ones, and published the results in Nature Climate Change. [20] What people already believed shaped their judgement most. [20] Placing an argument in a hostile party-political setting did not make people more biased. [20] A short warning that an argument might contain a common logical mistake helped people separate weak ones from strong ones. [20]

Why it matters — It points to a cheap way to help people judge climate claims, and it worked across beliefs and political parties. [20]
16
Texas police investigate a camp over flood deaths

The Texas Rangers, the state's top police investigators, are running a homicide investigation into the owners of Camp Mystic, court papers released this week show. [21] Twenty-eight people died at the camp in catastrophic flooding last year. [21] Search warrants carried out last week sought the owners' messages as possible evidence of manslaughter, negligent homicide or child abandonment. [21]

Why it matters — The warrants list crimes the Rangers are looking into, not charges anyone faces. [21]
17
A rare September storm heads for the US north-east

Forecasters expect a powerful, slow-moving nor'easter, a storm whose strongest winds blow in from the north-east, to strengthen off North Carolina on Friday. [22][23] A storm like this is rare in September, and this one is tracking close to the coast. [22] It could then spread from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. [23] It will arrive with higher-than-normal tides, raising the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion. [22]

Why it matters — Millions of people could be affected, and how much damage it does depends on how close to the coast it runs. [23]
18
The World Bank turns to private money

The World Bank's president, Ajay Banga, is drawing in private investors, from pension funds to the fund manager BlackRock, to pay for projects in poor countries, the New York Times reported last week. [24] The push was first meant to raise the trillions needed to tackle climate change. [24] With President Trump leading the US, the bank's largest shareholder, Banga has shifted its aim toward roads, infrastructure and jobs. [24]

Why it matters — Private investment through the bank has nearly tripled in three years. [24] Banga says public and charity money alone will never cover what poor countries need for energy, schools and health. [24]
19
South Korea weighs a Texas gas plant

South Korea's government was due to brief lawmakers this week on a $350 billion package of investments in the US, part of a trade deal that cut US tariffs on its goods to 15%. [25] A gas power plant in Texas is the first possible project. [25] Media reports also mention US nuclear reactors, a stake in the reactor maker Westinghouse and a long-delayed Alaska gas export project. [25]

Why it matters — South Korea's President Lee has said the two sides disagree over whether the projects will make money. [25] An opposition lawmaker warned the country could carry an unfair share of the risk in energy projects. [25]
20
Venezuela brings energy talks to the UN

Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela's acting president since a US raid captured Nicolas Maduro in January, came to New York for the UN General Assembly. [26][27] Her team began talks with US counterparts on energy, debt and mining, which are expected to end in signed agreements. [26] The Inter-American Development Bank is drawing up a two-year plan for Venezuela focused partly on electricity. [26]

Why it matters — At the UN, Rodriguez said she wants cooperation in the energy sector, after a deal last month gave the US a stake in Venezuela's oil reserves. [27] She said that deal will modernise the country's oil industry. [27]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a few flat years do not mean the ice is coming back

Cloudier summers have held the Arctic's yearly ice low steady for about ten years, and every one of those years is still among the lowest ever measured.

The twist

The Arctic melt has looked flat for about ten years because cloudier summers blocked some sunshine. The 20 lowest summers ever measured are still the last 20, so the ice has stopped falling fast, not started coming back.

The picture

20 of 48

the 20 lowest Arctic summers out of 48 measured by satellite

One dot for each summer's lowest ice, 1979 to 2026. The 20 filled dots are the lowest summers on record, and every one of them came in 2007 or later.

How it works

Each year's ice low is the long warming plus that summer's weather
Weather can push one year well above or below the trend
In the Arctic, cloudier summers have blocked sunshine and slowed the melt
So the yearly low has looked flat for about ten years
But every one of those flat years sits below the years before 2007
Only many years of readings show which way the ice is going

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

El Nino sets a daily record

The Pacific reading of 3.05C on 19 September is a natural spike that lasts about a year, sitting on top of the long warming underneath it.
Heatwave seasons start earlier and end later

The season grows by about nine days a decade, a change the researchers could only see by comparing 45 summers, not any single one.
New Zealand's carbon forests buy up sheep farms

The latest yearly slowdown, to about 160 square kilometres of farms sold, is one year inside 3,300 sold since 2017, and the figure may still rise.

Where you've seen this

A child's height

a month with no growth means little next to the growth chart over several years

Bathroom scales

water and meals move the number from day to day, so only weeks of weigh-ins show a real change

A shop's takings

one quiet week says little until it is set beside the same week in earlier years

The catch

Sometimes a flat stretch really is the start of a turn, and it can take many more years of readings before anyone can tell the two apart.

And the whole of it

The scientists at NASA and the NSIDC call the Arctic ice flat and still low in the same report, and stay careful about Antarctica. Anyone who reads one year's number, whether a scientist, a reporter or a reader, is looking at one dot that only makes sense beside the other 47.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Arctic sea ice this summer was about as low as in the past ten years, not lower, because cloudier summers blocked some of the sun's heat. [1] That is a pause in the loss, not a recovery: the 20 lowest summers ever measured all came between 2007 and 2026. [1]

Why it works on us — A number that has stayed the same for ten years feels like good news, because people notice the latest change more than the low level the number is stuck at.

Who gains

Chinese shipping firms such as Sea Legend — They now run a regular container route from China to Europe around Russia's north, and warming could open that route further. [3][4]
Timber companies and dam builders in the US — Under the 14 September memo, accidentally killing a protected animal is no longer treated as illegal. [12]
Forestry investors in New Zealand — Carbon credits pay them years before the trees are cut, so they can outbid sheep and beef farmers for land. [18]
Chinese makers of batteries and grid equipment — Buyers paid them about $75 billion in seven months of 2026, around $20 billion more than a year before. [16]
Texas farmers who lease land to solar farms — Leases run 25 to 30 years and rise each year; one farmer is paid $200,000 a year for 600 acres. [17]

Who pays

Truck, bus and tractor drivers in Bolivia — Diesel now sells at world prices after President Paz ended the subsidy. [7]
Farmers and truckers in the US — Diesel averages $6.52 a gallon, half a cent below a record. [9]
Neighbours of the Vineland data centre in New Jersey — They have sued over noise from a site that ran 62 gas generators without permits. [11]
Rural towns such as Pongaroa in New Zealand — As farms turned to pine forest, young families left and the rugby club folded in 2022. [18]
Protected animals in US forests and rivers — Experts say logging and dams can now go ahead even when they are known to kill birds or salmon. [12]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

How long the Arctic's flat decade will last.

NASA links it to cloudier summers in recent years, and nothing in the reports says whether that cloud will continue. [1]
02

Whether Antarctica's lower winter peaks are the start of a trend.

Its ice swings much more from year to year than the Arctic's, and NASA and NSIDC scientists say they remain cautious. [1]
03

How strong this El Nino will get, and where its drought lands.

Its peak is not expected until later this year, and the forecasts give a more than 90% chance of a record, not a certainty. [5][6]
04

Whether Hurricane Polo stays off Mexico's coast.

Mexico's president said it was not expected to make a direct landfall, but hurricane-hunter aircraft data showed it could still strengthen. [5]
05

Whether PowerHouse Hillwood's $1 guarantee will stand.

FERC left the question to a federal court in Illinois, which has not ruled. [10]
06

Whether Bolivia's loan money arrives, and whether protests return over dearer diesel.

The IMF's board still has to approve the loan, and the main labour federation opposes the cuts. [7]
07

Whether the US will ban diesel exports.

President Trump said he was open to it, but no ban has been announced, and the oil industry warns it could backfire. [9]
08

What deep-sea mining would do to life on the ocean floor.

Much is unknown about those ecosystems, and the International Seabed Authority's rules are not finished. [15]
09

How many more New Zealand sheep farms will become forest.

The figure showing sales slowed last year is preliminary, and the farm industry group says it could rise. [18]

04 Hope carry this

In Texas, the biggest oil-producing state in the US, solar farms now supply about a third of the electricity on hot afternoons.

Also true today

Buyers paid about $75 billion for Chinese batteries and grid equipment in the first seven months of 2026, around $20 billion more than a year before.
In tests with 4,000 people, a short warning about common logic mistakes helped them tell weak climate arguments from strong ones, across beliefs and political parties.