Climate & Energy · Monday, 12 October 2026
El Nino pushes the Pacific's El Nino patch to a record 29.70C in September, and the world's seas to their warmest September on record
Copernicus, the EU's climate service, says the El Nino patch of the Pacific hit an all-time high in September and the world's seas set a September record, but it cannot yet call this the strongest El Nino ever.
29.70C
average sea temperature in the Pacific's main El Nino patch in September
the highest on record there, above the 1997-98 and 2015-16 peaks
21.05C
average temperature of the world's seas in September
a record for the month, beating 20.92C in 2023
1.63C
warmer air in September than the 1850-1900 average
the world's second-hottest September on Copernicus's record
4C
above normal in the El Nino patch, by Japan's count
Japan's weather agency called it the strongest El Nino on record on Friday
The lead story — what happened
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Copernicus, the EU's climate monitoring service, said on Monday that the sea in the Pacific's main El Nino patch averaged 29.70C in September.
[1] [2] That beat the peaks of the three biggest El Ninos on record, in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.[1] -
El Nino is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific that comes every two to seven years and shifts winds and rain around the world.
[1] -
An El Nino is declared when the sea in one patch on the equator runs 0.5C above its normal.
[3] New Scientist reported it 3.4C above normal in early October.[3] -
Japan's national weather agency said on Friday that El Nino had reached its strongest intensity on record, about 4C above normal.
[1] [2] -
Copernicus was more careful. It told AFP, the French news agency, that it cannot yet say this is the strongest El Nino ever.
[1] -
Its reason: the whole tropical ocean has warmed, and that makes recent El Ninos look bigger than old ones.
[1] Copernicus's new index takes that warming out first, and on it this El Nino is not yet the strongest.[1] -
The world's seas averaged a record 21.05C in September, above the 20.92C set in September 2023.
[1] [2] -
The air over the whole planet had its second-hottest September, 1.63C warmer than the average for 1850-1900, before coal and oil were burned on a large scale.
[1] [2] -
Copernicus's director, Carlo Buontempo, said the world is in a new run of months above 1.5C of warming, and the El Nino will probably keep it going into 2027.
[1] -
El Nino's high winds kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes until Isaias formed this month, the latest first Atlantic hurricane since 1914.
[33] In the eastern Pacific it weakens those winds, which has helped storms such as Hurricane Simon grow.[6] -
Australia has just had its second-hottest September on record as El Nino strengthened.
[5] -
Forecasters expect heavy rain and floods in southern Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia this autumn and winter, and the lowest rainfall in 75 years in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
[4] The UN has raised only about a third of the money for its El Nino plans in Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan.[4]
Who is involved
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Copernicus Climate Change Service
the EU's climate monitoring service; it reported the record and said it cannot yet call this the strongest El Nino
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Carlo Buontempo
director of Copernicus; he said the El Nino will probably keep the world above 1.5C into 2027
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Japan Meteorological Agency
Japan's national weather service; on Friday it called this El Nino the strongest on record
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Michael McPhaden
a scientist at NOAA, the US ocean and weather agency; he says nobody can yet tell how this El Nino will end
How it unfolded
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1982-2016 Three big El Ninos set the old peaks in the Pacific patch
[1] -
Sep 2023 The world's seas set the old September record, 20.92C
[1] -
Fri 9 Oct Japan's weather agency calls El Nino the strongest on record
[1] -
Mon 12 Oct Copernicus reports 29.70C in the patch and 21.05C for the world's seas
[1] [2] -
Nov-Dec El Nino is expected to peak
[3] -
By June 2027 Most computer models expect it to be over
[3]
Where this points
Watch Copernicus's next monthly reports, since the El Nino has not peaked: if its warming-adjusted index also passes the old peaks, the strongest-ever claim will hold on both measures.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
Sydney was under a total fire ban on Monday, with 37C forecast after Australia's second-hottest September.
British farmers say the cheap red diesel their tractors burn has almost doubled in price since the Iran war began in February.
The biggest group in the European Parliament backs a plan to shrink factories' carbon permits more slowly.
Lithium mines planned in California's Imperial Valley will need water in a place already short of it.
The rest of the day
21 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
Hurricane Simon crawls along Mexico's coast
Hurricane Simon reached 155 mph winds early on Sunday, just below the top category, Category 5.
[8] It then shifted track and was forecast to pass about 15 km off the coast of Jalisco state instead of coming ashore.[6] It barely moved, at about 10 kph, so it can drop rain on the same places for longer.[6] Up to 76 cm of rain was possible in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, and 28 municipalities were under the highest alert.[9] The US hurricane centre expected it to stay close to the coast on Monday.[37] Why it matters — Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, told coastal residents to stay sheltered until officials say the danger is over.
[37] Steep hillsides face floods and mudslides even if the eye never comes ashore, because the storm's rain bands still reach land.[8] [6] -
03
Europe's Parliament splits over carbon permits
Three big groups in the European Parliament, the centre-left Socialists, the centrist Renew group and the Greens, filed changes last week to keep the EU's carbon market strict.
[10] That market caps the carbon that power plants, steelworks and chemical factories may emit, through permits whose number shrinks each year.[10] On today's path the permits run out around 2039 or 2040.[10] The lawmaker leading the work, Germany's Peter Liese of the centre-right EPP, backs pushing that date into the 2040s.[10] Why it matters — If the three groups hold firm, the EPP could pass its plan with far-right votes, as it did on an environmental reporting law in 2025.
[10] The outcome sets how fast Europe's power plants and heavy industry must cut their carbon.[10] -
04
Tens of thousands march in Brussels
Police counted 45,000 people marching through Brussels, Belgium's capital, on Sunday to demand stronger climate action from EU leaders; the organisers said about 60,000.
[11] Belgium saw a sharp rise in deaths during this summer's heatwaves, and wildfires burned in the High Fens, one of its most important nature reserves.[11] The Climate Coalition, which organised the march, wants fossil fuel subsidies phased out and the fossil fuel industry taxed.[11] Why it matters — The march came a month before COP31, the UN climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, where hopes for a breakthrough are low.
[11] Inside the European Parliament, the biggest group already backs slowing the EU's carbon market.[10] -
05
NSW met only the gas lobby before opening exploration
Documents suggest New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, met only one outside group before it reopened gas exploration in April: Australian Energy Producers, the oil and gas industry's lobby.
[12] The meeting was in February, and the records came out under freedom of information law.[12] The decision opened two areas in the far west, the Bancannia and Pondie Range troughs, to exploration for the first time since a 2014 freeze.[12] Why it matters — Lock the Gate, the campaign group that asked for the records, says the decision blindsided communities, including the Barkandji people, who won native title over 128,000 square km there in 2015.
[12] Farmers want answers on how groundwater will be protected.[12] -
06
Sydney bans fires as it heads for 37C
A total fire ban covered greater Sydney and the Hunter region on Monday, with 37C forecast in the city's west.
[5] That would be 10 or 11 degrees above the October average, the weather bureau said, and the city's hottest day since February.[5] Thunderstorms were expected to bring little rain, so dry lightning could start fires.[5] Outdoor fires, barbecues that burn wood or coal, and welding outdoors were banned.[5] Why it matters — The heat came after Australia's second-hottest September on record, and a bureau forecaster expects El Nino to bring many hot days ahead.
[5] The state's fire service says it did more planned burning of dry undergrowth this year than in earlier years.[5] -
07
Eight orangutans go back to Borneo's forest
Eight orangutans, three mothers, their three daughters and two adult males, were released into a reserve in western Borneo on Friday.
[7] They were among 46 that Indonesian authorities and International Animal Rescue, a charity, rescued from wildfires in August and September.[7] [14] The fires, made worse this year by El Nino, came within a few hundred metres of the charity's rescue centre.[14] More than 270 wild animals in Kalimantan, Indonesia's part of Borneo, have been rescued or moved.[13] Why it matters — Orangutans are critically endangered: about 104,000 remain on Borneo and Sumatra, down from over 230,000 a century ago.
[7] The reserve was chosen because it has food and water and links to other forest.[7] -
08
Borneo residents take the fires to court
Residents of West Kalimantan, a province on Borneo, accuse Indonesia's government of negligence over forest fires that have burned for more than three months.
[15] Hearings in their case began last week.[15] It names 27 people and agencies, including Indonesia's president and vice president.[15] Their lawyer says children in the smoke-hit areas have not been able to go to school for two months.[15] Water shortages have slowed firefighting, and Japan has sent help.[15] Why it matters — The haze has made people ill in neighbouring countries too.
[15] A local Indigenous leader says the aim is to make the state stop the fires coming back each year, not to blame it.[15] -
09
Wales told to get ready for floods
Natural Resources Wales, the Welsh government's environment body, told people this weekend to prepare for flooding this autumn, as long-range forecasts point to wetter, windier weather than usual.
[16] One in seven properties in Wales is at risk of flooding, more than 274,500 homes and businesses.[16] Only 27% of those who can get flood warnings by phone or email have signed up.[16] Why it matters — Towns such as Monmouth, flooded in November 2025, are still recovering.
[16] Friends of the Earth, an environmental group, says El Nino is expected to bring Britain a wetter, stormier winter.[32] -
10
British farmers squeezed by fuel and drought
The red diesel that runs British farm machines has almost doubled in price since the Iran war began in late February, and most fertiliser and animal feed costs about 20% more.
[17] England had its worst recorded cereals harvest after the UK's hottest summer on record.[17] Britain grows about 60% of the food it eats.[17] Parliament's public accounts committee, which checks government spending, starts hearings on Monday on how safe the food supply is.[17] Why it matters — Jamie Burrows, who chairs the crops board at the National Farmers' Union, says some farms will not make it.
[17] Arable farmers are ploughing now for next year's crop, so they pay for the dearer fuel and fertiliser before any harvest comes in.[17] -
11
The lithium rush meets the water shortage
Inside Climate News and Columbia Journalism Investigations counted about 540 proposed lithium mines worldwide, with most new US ones in the dry Southwest.
[18] In California's Imperial County, officials have approved two mines that would take lithium from the brine under the Salton Sea, a lake.[18] A recent study found most lithium mining areas will not have enough water for the industry by mid-century.[18] In Chile's Atacama, brine holding nearly a quarter of the world's lithium sits under a salt flat.[19] Why it matters — Lithium goes into the batteries of electric cars.
[18] In Imperial County, landowners with century-old water rights stand to profit, while many neighbours struggle to pay for clean drinking water.[18] -
12
Oil theft rises in the Permian
Nearly half the oil firms working mostly in the Permian Basin, the heart of US shale oil across West Texas and New Mexico, say theft has hit them, a Dallas Fed survey found.
[20] The Dallas Fed is the US central bank's branch in Dallas.[20] US crude is up 60% this year, and 47% of executives said the most common theft was organised.[20] One Texas sheriff said in May that 1,000 to 1,500 barrels are reported stolen in his county each month.[20] Why it matters — The jump in oil prices since the Iran war began has drawn in more thieves, and more of them are professionals.
[20] Most firms still said the losses were small.[20] -
13
An oilfield crowds New Mexico's Pecos River
Some 380 oil and gas wells and 11 wastewater disposal wells sit within half a mile of the Pecos River in New Mexico, Grist reported.
[21] In New Mexico more than three barrels of salty, toxic wastewater come up for every barrel of oil.[21] State rules ban using that water outside the oilfield, and an oilfield watchdog says the industry wants to treat it and put it in the river.[21] The state expects 25% to 30% less river water by 2070.[21] Why it matters — Farms, ranches and endangered animals such as the Texas hornshell mussel all depend on the same shrinking river.
[21] In July the US Interior Department stopped counting habitat destruction as harm to endangered species.[21] -
14
Penguin droppings give off methane
Scientists from Spain's national research council measured methane coming off the guano, or droppings, in two chinstrap penguin colonies on Deception Island in Antarctica.
[22] Methane is a greenhouse gas that traps more heat than carbon dioxide.[22] Their study puts the penguins' guano at about 490,000 tonnes of methane a year.[22] Counting all Antarctic land the birds use, it could be around 7 million tonnes, the same scale as estimates for termites.[22] Why it matters — The authors say this natural source should be added to the world's methane counts.
[22] The larger figure is scaled up from measurements at two colonies, not measured directly.[22] -
15
An Alpine summit could break away
Scientists from the Technical University of Munich warn that 250,000 to 400,000 cubic metres of rock could fall from the Hochvogel, a 2,592 m peak on the German-Austrian border.
[23] About 2,000 cubic metres broke away in June.[23] A crack in the summit, once shoulder-width, is now several metres wide, and sensors measured movement of up to 5 mm a week this spring.[23] Why it matters — The team links faster movement to heavy rain, thunderstorms and snowmelt, and says climate change is making thunderstorms more frequent and intense.
[23] More than 30 sensors now watch the summit, and at similar sites the warning signs come only days or hours ahead.[23] -
16
Somaliland warns of flash floods
The government of Somaliland, a self-declared state in northern Somalia, warned on Sunday of unusually heavy rain and possible flash floods in towns including Berbera, Borama and Saylac.
[28] Its information minister told people to keep away from seasonal rivers and drainage channels.[28] He told electricity companies to put staff on alert to prevent deaths from electrical accidents.[28] Why it matters — Forecasters expect El Nino to bring heavy rain and flash floods to Somalia, Kenya and southern Ethiopia this autumn.
[4] Floods in eastern Africa killed about 700 people in the 2023 El Nino.[4] -
17
A Nepal flood hits hydropower projects
The Budhi Gandaki river in Nepal's Gorkha district flooded on Sunday and swept away houses and bridges.
[31] [35] AFP reported 45 houses lost and three hydropower projects damaged.[35] The water rose from 2 m to nearly 8.5 m in a couple of hours at one point, and five people are missing.[31] It came two months after floods near the border with Tibet killed more than 1,400 people.[31] [36] Why it matters — The disaster agency's chief says a landslide blocked the river and then burst, but the BBC reports some locals saw an ice avalanche upstream.
[35] [31] Nepal's official river gauge there was swept away, so its data stopped.[31] -
18
Lagos aims to triple its electricity
Lagos, Nigeria's biggest city, plans to raise its power supply from under 1,000 megawatts to over 3,000 by March 2027, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu said.
[24] The extra power would come from the national grid, private power plants and floating power barges.[24] Since late 2024 Lagos has regulated its own electricity market.[24] About 42,000 of 50,000 planned solar streetlights are up.[24] Why it matters — The governor said the target depends on steady gas for power plants and more electricity meters.
[24] The state also plans to upgrade its substations and local wires.[24] -
19
Europe's carmakers ask for a home advantage
Volkswagen's chief, Oliver Blume, backed EU 'Made in Europe' rules that would steer subsidies and public purchases to products made mostly in the EU.
[30] President Emmanuel Macron makes his last visit to the Paris Motor Show as France's president on Monday.[29] France registered 331,000 new electric cars in 2025 but built 216,000, and only 26% of those sold were made there.[29] Citroen showed an electric 2CV it says will sell for 15,000 euros in 2028.[34] Why it matters — Volkswagen, among the carmakers hit hardest by cheaper Chinese rivals, plans to cut as many as 100,000 jobs.
[30] Blume named high energy costs among the pressures on Europe's carmakers.[30] -
20
Battery diggers cut a quarry's fuel bill
Groupe Bellemare, a Canadian minerals firm, says it spent under $54,000 on electricity for about 15,000 hours of work by battery-powered heavy machines.
[25] The diesel machines they replaced would have burned an estimated $423,000 of fuel in the same time, an 87% saving.[25] The firm ran the three-year test with a Quebec vehicle research institute, using power from Hydro-Quebec, the province's utility.[25] Why it matters — Electric machines cost more to buy, and the fuel saving is what pays that back.
[25] The figures come from three years on a working site, not a lab test.[25] -
21
A new charging yard for electric lorries
EV Realty, a company that builds charging sites for lorries, bought land in California's Inland Empire for its next charging hub.
[26] The company calls the area the West Coast's largest warehouse district, and it serves the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.[26] BYD, Volvo and Tesla are bringing new electric lorries to market.[26] Why it matters — Record diesel prices are pushing more freight firms toward electric lorries, Electrek reports.
[26] Those lorries need charging yards built for big rigs, with wide turning space and bays they can drive straight through.[26] -
22
Surrey passes 885,000 new trees
Surrey County Council in England planted about 885,000 trees between 2021 and 2026, beating its target of 600,000.
[27] It planted 116,359 in the last year alone and aims for 1.2 million by 2030.[27] It also says it has cut its own carbon emissions by about 60%, and 1,438 low-income homes got insulation, solar or low-carbon heating.[27] Why it matters — A neighbouring council, Elmbridge, says many new trees die within a year without care, and wants survival counted, not just planting.
[27]
Why an El Nino record depends on what normal you measure it against
El Nino is measured as a gap from a past normal, and the whole ocean has warmed since then, so part of today's record is the warming, not El Nino.
The twist
The Pacific patch really is the hottest ever measured. Part of that heat comes from the whole ocean being warmer than it was, not from El Nino alone.
The picture
- 1The line where an El Nino starts0.5 C
- 2New Scientist's reading, early October3.4 C
- 3Japan's weather agency, Friday4 C
How it works
- An El Nino is measured as how much warmer one patch of the Pacific is than its normal
- That normal is an average of past years
- Since those years, the whole tropical ocean has warmed
- So the patch reads hotter partly because the water all around it is hotter
- Copernicus's new index takes the general warming out first
- On that measure this El Nino is very strong, but not yet the strongest
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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Sydney's fire ban
The forecast 37C was called 10 or 11 degrees above the October average, a gap measured from Octobers in the past.
-
The battery diggers
The 87% saving is measured against the diesel the old machines would have burned, so a dearer diesel makes the same saving look bigger.
-
British farmers' red diesel
Almost doubled is counted from late February, when the Iran war began, so the size of the rise depends on that starting date.
-
Surrey's trees
The 885,000 beats a target counted in trees planted. A neighbouring council wants to count the trees still alive a year later instead.
Where you've seen this
A child's growth chart
a height is called tall or short against other children the same age, and the chart changes as children grow taller over generations
Prices in a shop
bread at its dearest ever may only be keeping up with wages and everything else getting dearer around it
Sports records
a record set with new shoes or a faster track mixes the athlete's speed with the kit's
The catch
Both readings are true at once: the water is the hottest measured there, and that total heat is what drives the floods and droughts, whatever El Nino's own share of it.
And the whole of it
A farmer in Zambia waiting for rain and a family in western Sydney under a fire ban both live with the total heat. Only scientists can split it into El Nino's share and the warmer ocean's share.
What is really going on
Copernicus, the EU's climate service, says the Pacific's El Nino patch hit a record 29.70C in September, and Japan's weather agency calls this El Nino the strongest on record.
Why it works on us — A record is easy to repeat and hard to question, so 'strongest El Nino ever' travels faster than the note about how it was measured.
Who gains
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Australian Energy Producers, the oil and gas lobby
— Documents suggest it was the only outside group the New South Wales government met before reopening gas exploration in the far west.
[12] -
Chemical and metal makers in the EU
— The plan backed by the Parliament's biggest group would let their carbon permits run out in the 2040s instead of around 2040.
[10] -
Landowners with old water rights in Imperial County, California
— Water rights dating back a century are set to profit as lithium firms need water in a dry valley.
[18] -
Builders of electric lorry charging yards, such as EV Realty
— Record diesel prices are pushing freight firms to electric lorries, which need charging yards near the warehouses.
[26] -
Organised oil thieves in the Permian Basin
— Crude up 60% this year makes each barrel taken from a remote well worth more.
[20]
Who pays
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Farmers in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe
— Forecasters expect their lowest rainfall in 75 years this season, as the El Nino peaks.
[4] -
British arable farmers
— Their red diesel has almost doubled and fertiliser is up about 20%, after England's worst recorded cereal harvest.
[17] -
Children in West Kalimantan, Borneo
— Smoke from the fires has kept them out of school for two months, their lawyer says.
[15] -
Residents of Imperial County, California
— Many struggle to pay for clean drinking water while dust from land held for lithium drifts into school yards.
[18] -
The Barkandji people of far western New South Wales
— Gas exploration was opened on land under their native title, and Lock the Gate says they were blindsided.
[12]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
Whether this is the strongest El Nino ever measured.
Japan's weather agency says yes, and New Scientist and the BBC call it the strongest on record. Copernicus says it cannot yet say so, because its warming-adjusted index does not put it first.
[1] [3] [7] -
02
How and when this El Nino ends.
Most computer models say by June 2027, but some keep it into the northern summer, and a NOAA scientist says nobody can predict the ending with any certainty.
[3] -
03
Where Hurricane Simon's centre went, and what it destroyed.
On Sunday forecasters still could not say whether the centre would cross the coast or stay just offshore, and the reports we read had no damage count yet.
[37] [6] -
04
What set off the flood on Nepal's Budhi Gandaki river.
Nepal's disaster agency chief says a landslide dammed the river and burst, while others told the BBC they saw an ice avalanche upstream. The river gauge that would show it was swept away.
[35] [31] -
05
How many houses Nepal's flood destroyed.
The BBC reported about a dozen houses swept away, and AFP reported 45. Both counts were taken on the day.
[31] [35] -
06
Whether the EU's centre-right will pass its carbon market plan with far-right votes.
The amendments are filed but no vote has been held, and far-right groups disagree among themselves over whether to slow the market or scrap it.
[10] -
07
Whether New South Wales met anyone besides the gas lobby before reopening exploration.
The freedom of information records show only the gas lobby, and the New South Wales government did not answer the Guardian's question about other meetings.
[12] -
08
How much methane Antarctic penguins really give off.
The 7 million tonne figure scales up measurements from two colonies on one island to the whole continent.
[22] -
09
How many of Surrey's new trees are alive.
The council counts trees planted, and Elmbridge council says many die within a year, but no survival figure has been published.
[27]
Eight orangutans, three mothers, their three daughters and two adult males, went back into a forest reserve in western Borneo on Friday. They were among 46 rescued from this summer's fires.
Also true today
- Surrey County Council planted about 885,000 trees in five years, beating its target of 600,000. In the same years 1,438 low-income homes in the county got insulation, solar panels or low-carbon heating.
- A Canadian quarry firm ran battery-powered heavy machines for about 15,000 hours on under $54,000 of electricity. The diesel machines they replaced would have burned an estimated $423,000 of fuel.
- New South Wales firefighters did more planned burning of dry undergrowth this year than in earlier years, ahead of Monday's total fire ban across greater Sydney.
- About 42,000 of the 50,000 streetlights Lagos planned to switch to solar power are now running on it.
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