The IEA expects almost 4,800 gigawatts of new renewable power by 2031, as the Iran war makes buying less fuel from abroad the main reason countries build it

The stories

32 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   The IEA expects almost 4,800 gigawatts of new renewable power by 2031, as the Iran war makes buying less fuel from abroad the main reason countries build it

   4,800 GW

   of new renewable power the IEA expects from 2026 to 2031

   57% more than in the six years before [2]

   61% to 53%

   China's share of the world's new renewable power, from 2025 to the forecast years

   China still adds almost 2,520 GW, the most of any country [2]

   70 million

   households with better electricity from rooftop solar since 2022

   Pakistan's official count shows 10 GW, against nearly 50 GW of panels imported [2]

   3,000 GW

   of projects waiting to join grids, up 60% in a year

   four times the wind and solar connected last year [1]

   What happened

   • The IEA expects the world to add almost 4,800 gigawatts of renewable power from 2026 to 2031. [1] That is 57% more than in the six years before. [2]
   • The IEA, the International Energy Agency, is based in Paris. [3] It studies energy and argues for policies that keep it reliable and affordable. [2]
   • Energy security is now the main reason countries build renewables, says Fatih Birol, the IEA's head. [1]
   • He means countries want to rely less on fuel bought from abroad, whose price can swing. [1]
   • The Iran war began at the end of February. [1] It disrupted fuel shipped through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed oil and gas prices up. [2]
   • Sun and wind are spread around the world, so every country has some it can build at home. [2]
   • For the first time, poorer and middle-income countries outside China will add as much renewable power as rich ones. [1]
   • From 2020 to 2025 they grew at only half the rich countries' pace. [2]
   • The IEA raised its forecast for poorer and middle-income economies by almost 20% from a year ago. [2]
   • India becomes the world's second-biggest market for new renewables, after China. [1] Its renewable power is set to more than double by 2031. [1]
   • Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa will almost triple what they add, the IEA says. [2]
   • Saudi Arabia builds renewables to burn less oil at home and sell 1 million more barrels a day abroad. [2]
   • China still adds the most, almost 2,520 gigawatts by 2031. [2] That is almost 50% more than it added from 2020 to 2025. [2]
   • But China's share of the world's new renewable power falls from 61% in 2025 to about 53%. [2]
   • In the first 9 months of 2026, China built almost 55% less new solar than a year before. [2]
   • It had swapped fixed payments for solar power for auctions, where the lowest bid wins the right to build. [2]
   • Rooftop solar has improved electricity for at least 70 million households since 2022, the IEA estimates. [2]
   • Pakistan's official count shows about 10 gigawatts of solar. [2] Yet it imported nearly 50 gigawatts of panels from 2020 to 2025. [2]
   • Panels on homes that never join the grid are hard for governments to track. [2]
   • Divided by people, the UAE will make the most solar power in the world by 2031. [3]
   • Each person's share there passes 4,000 kilowatt hours, against a world average of about 800. [3]
   • Projects waiting to connect to grids rose 60% in a year, to 3,000 gigawatts. [1] That is four times the wind and solar connected last year. [1]
   • Grids switched off almost 200 terawatt hours of wind and solar in 2025, power they could not use. [2] That could pass 800 by 2031. [2]

   202533%

   203145%

   Who is involved

   • Fatih Birol head of the IEA; he says energy security now drives renewables
   • The IEA the International Energy Agency, which advises governments on energy; it wrote Renewables 2026
   • China the biggest builder of renewable power; its share of new building falls to about 53%
   • India set to be the second-biggest growth market for renewables, after China
   • The UAE a Gulf oil state set to make the most solar power per person by 2031

   How it unfolded

   1. 2020-2025 poorer countries outside China add renewables at half the rich countries' pace [2]
   2. End of Feb the Iran war begins and disrupts fuel through Hormuz [1]
   3. 6 Nov the IEA publishes Renewables 2026 [1]
   4. 9 Nov COP31 opens in Antalya [4]
   5. 2031 renewables near 45% of the world's electricity, the IEA expects [2]

   Why it matters

   Renewables made 33% of the world's electricity in 2025, and the IEA expects almost 45% in 2031. [2]

   Without renewables built since 2010, the world would have burned about 8% more fossil fuel in 2025. [2] That is as much energy as India uses. [2]

   How it works

   In statistics, a share is one amount divided by a total, and here the world's total grows fastest. [2]

   Over six years, China's building is set to grow by almost 50%. [2] The world's grows faster, so China's share falls to 53%. [2]

   Seen it before

   Your vote counts for less in a bigger class, even though you still have exactly one vote.

   The truth

   • What is really going on The IEA says countries now build solar and wind mainly so they need less fuel from abroad, after the Iran war disrupted world energy markets. [1]
   • Why it works on people A big forecast like 4,800 gigawatts sounds like a count of what exists, but it is the IEA's main case, resting on today's policies holding until 2031. [2]
   • These are forecasts, the IEA's main case, not a count of what is built. [2] The IEA cut China's forecast by 116 gigawatts in a year. [2]
   • The National, a UAE newspaper, headlined the UAE as the world's biggest solar generator. [3] The IEA's ranking is per person, not in total. [2]
   • Who gains Solar factories in India — By 2031, India is expected to be the only country besides China able to make every main part of a solar panel at scale. [2]
   • Who pays Chinese solar makers — More than 90% of the big ones reported losses this year, and over 70 firms have gone bankrupt since 2024. [2]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the 4,800 gigawatts will actually be built.

     It is the IEA's main case, built on today's policies, and the IEA cut its China forecast by 116 gigawatts in one year. [2]

   Good news

   • Rooftop solar panels have brought better electricity to at least 70 million households since 2022, the IEA estimates.

   What comes next

   COP31, the UN climate summit, opens in Antalya, Turkey, on 9 November. [4] Its hosts want electricity to meet 35% of energy demand by 2035, from about 20%. [4]

1. 02

   A sailor dies as a tanker is hit near Bahrain

   What happened

   • A blast believed to be a missile hit the oil tanker Velos Sapphire in the Gulf, killing 1 sailor. [5]
   • The ship was sailing to Bahrain, and its crew put out the fire the blast started. [5]
   • Velos Tankers, its Greek manager, said the sailor was first reported missing, then found dead on board. [5]
   • Bahrain's Khalifa Bin Salman Port took in the ship, and an inquiry into the damage will follow. [5]
   • On Friday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said 2 more tankers had struck mines and caught fire. [19]

   Who is involved

   • Velos Tankers Greek ship manager

   Why it matters

   The strait normally carries about one-fifth of the oil the world uses. [19] The US says it helped Gulf states ship 1.5 billion barrels through it since summer. [19]

   The truth

   • No maritime officials have confirmed Iran's claims about the tankers it says hit mines. [19]
   • Who pays Sailors on Gulf tankers — They work in waters where October brought more than 35 incidents, the most of the war. [5]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Who hit the Velos Sapphire.

     Its manager says the blast is believed to be a missile, and the inquiry at Bahrain's port is still to come. [5]

2. 03

   Russian diesel bound for the US turns away

   What happened

   • Tankers taking Russian diesel to the US east coast have reportedly changed course, says Kpler, a shipping data firm. [20]
   • One turned toward Brazil and another into the Mediterranean, DW reports. [20]
   • A third changed its destination from New York to 'for orders', naming no port. [20]
   • New Jersey's governor, Mikie Sherrill, warned ports to turn the fuel away or face 'harsh penalties'. [20]

   Who is involved

   • One tanker toward Brazil
   • Another into the Mediterranean
   • Mikie Sherrill governor of New Jersey

   How it unfolded

   Last month, Trump eased sanctions on Russian oil in a deal with Putin, as US diesel prices soared. [20]

   1. Last month Trump eases sanctions on Russian oil
   2. This week tankers change course

   Why it matters

   Reports at the time said the diesel was a fraction of what the US uses each day. [20]

   The truth

   • Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian envoy, called the tracking reports fake and said the tankers were still on course. [20]
3. 04

   Siemens Energy armours Gulf power plants

   What happened

   • Siemens Energy, a German maker of power plant machines, is redesigning Gulf power plants to survive drone and missile attacks. [6]
   • It is adding shelters and barriers, and may put parts of new plants underground. [6]
   • "Energy security now is national security," said Hussein Shoukry, its head for the region. [6]

   Who is involved

   Siemens Energy has about 100 gigawatts of power plants installed across the Middle East and Africa. [6]

   How it unfolded

   It is using lessons from Ukraine, where repeated attacks on power plants forced operators to protect them. [6]

   Why it matters

   The changes could add to the cost of plants. [6] The region needs 50% more power within 5 to 6 years. [6]

   How it works

   Shoukry says they now protect power plants the way a military base is protected. [6]

   Shoukry says everybody knows where Gulf power plants are. [6] So customers want their equipment shielded instead. [6]

   Seen it before

   A house on a busy street cannot hide, so its owner fits a stronger door.

   The truth

   • Who gains Siemens Energy — Gulf customers now want shelters, barriers and buried equipment for their plants, which it designs and supplies. [6]
4. 05

   The UAE says its oil never stopped flowing

   What happened

   • The UAE's oil exports kept going through the whole crisis, its energy official Sharif Al Olama told Euronews. [21]
   • He spoke at ADIPEC, an energy meeting in Abu Dhabi. [21]
   • "The first few months were very difficult," Al Olama said. [21]
   • The UAE has about 8.2 gigawatts of solar and plans to reach 20 gigawatts and more. [21]
   • He said the UAE would stay a reliable energy supplier to Europe and the world. [21]

   Who is involved

   • Sharif Al Olama UAE energy official

   Why it matters

   Officials at ADIPEC mostly talked about the threat of new strikes in the region, Euronews reports. [21]

   How it works

   Al Olama calls it diversifying: spreading energy across several kinds of source. [21] The UAE runs on nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels together. [21]

   Al Olama says that mix kept the UAE's power running without a break through the crisis. [21]

   Seen it before

   A shop with two bread suppliers can still sell bread when one van breaks down.

   The truth

   • He gave no figure for how much oil the UAE shipped during the crisis. [21]
5. 06

   Adnoc sells India gas for 10 years

   What happened

   • Adnoc, the UAE's state oil company, will sell liquefied natural gas to India's Gujarat Energy. [10] It covers up to 4 million tonnes over 10 years. [10]
   • Deliveries begin in 2028, and the gas comes from XRG, Adnoc's arm that invests abroad. [10]

   Who is involved

   Gujarat Energy is a government-owned company working in 44 districts across 6 Indian states. [10]

   • Gujarat Energy government-owned, 44 districts

   How it unfolded

   It is Adnoc's fifth deal to supply India with this gas. [10]

   1. Now deal signed
   2. 2028 gas starts to flow

   Why it matters

   Adnoc says the deal gives India reliable, long-term supply. [10]

   A column in The National says the world is widely seen as well supplied with gas later this decade. [22]

   It points to new gas plants on the US Gulf Coast and Qatar's North Field expansion. [22]

   The truth

   • What is really going on The same week, a sailor died when a tanker was hit near Bahrain, and Adnoc signed a 10-year deal to sell gas to India. [5][10]
   • Who gains Adnoc — Its contract ties Gujarat Energy to its gas from 2028, before the extra US and Qatari gas that a column in The National expects later this decade. [10][22]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What Adnoc's gas will cost India.

     Neither company published a price for the 10-year deal. [10]

6. 07

   Turkey shrugs at a rival Iraqi oil pipeline

   What happened

   • Turkey's energy minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, says Turkey is 'not afraid' of a rebuilt oil pipeline from Iraq to Syria. [11]
   • It opened in 1952 and could carry 300,000 barrels of oil a day. [11]
   • Iraq now trucks tens of thousands of extra barrels a day north to Turkey's pipelines. [11]
   • Bayraktar wants Turkey's own route to grow from 1.5 million to 2.5 million barrels a day. [11]

   Who is involved

   • Alparslan Bayraktar Turkey's energy minister

   How it unfolded

   Iraq and Syria agreed in July to repair the 800-kilometre Kirkuk to Baniyas line, unused since 2003. [11]

   1. 1952 the line opens
   2. 2003 it falls out of use
   3. July Iraq and Syria agree to repair it

   Why it matters

   A working line would give Iraq a way to sell oil that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. [11]

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the Kirkuk to Baniyas pipeline will ever carry oil again.

     Kpler, an energy data firm, rates a quick repair as 'low', and the line crosses desert where Islamic State has attacked oil sites. [11]

7. 08

   Iran and Russia talk about a gas pipeline

   What happened

   • Iran's top security official, Rezaei, met Putin in Moscow on Thursday. [12] They discussed building gas pipelines from Russia to Iran. [12]
   • Rezaei said the pipes would ease Iran's gas shortages and help Russia sell gas to Iran's neighbours. [12]

   Who is involved

   • Rezaei Iran's top security official
   • Putin Russia's president

   How it unfolded

   Iran produces a lot of gas but has long run short. [12] It says strikes hit its gas processing plants. [12]

   The meeting came a week after Putin met Iran's president at a summit of gas-exporting countries. [12]

   1. Last week Putin meets Iran's president at a gas summit
   2. Thursday Rezaei meets Putin in Moscow

   Why it matters

   Gas shortages in Iran have grown worse since the war began in late February, Euronews reports. [12]

   The truth

   • Neither side gave a route, a cost or a date for the pipelines. [12]
8. 09

   Azerbaijan sends transformers to Ukraine's grid

   What happened

   • Azerbaijan delivered 9 transformers, 186 kilometres of high-voltage cable and generators to Ukraine. [7]
   • The shipment is worth $1.47 million. [7] It brings Azerbaijan's aid to Ukraine since the war began to $52 million. [7]
   • They inspected protection systems built to defend a power site from Russian attacks. [7]

   Who is involved

   Energy ministers Parviz Shahbazov of Azerbaijan and Denys Shmyhal of Ukraine met in Uzhhorod, in western Ukraine. [7]

   • Parviz Shahbazov Azerbaijan's energy minister
   • Denys Shmyhal Ukraine's energy minister

   How it unfolded

   It was the first time their joint commission met inside Ukraine since Russia's full invasion. [7]

   Why it matters

   Shmyhal thanked Azerbaijan above all for transformers and generators, needed to repair grids after Russian strikes. [7]

   Good news

   • Azerbaijan delivered nine transformers and 186 kilometres of cable to repair Ukraine's power grid before winter.

1. 10

   Majorca shuts its coal plant four years early

   What happened

   • Majorca, a Spanish island, has been allowed to close its last 2 coal units, at the Es Murterar power station. [8]
   • The closure comes 4 years ahead of schedule. [8] Endesa, Spain's largest power company, will keep 2 gas turbines running there. [8]
   • In 2025, solar made 21.9% of Spain's electricity and wind 20.4%, the think tank Ember counts. [8] Gas made 21.5% and coal just 0.9%. [8]

   How it unfolded

   Spain's renewable power more than doubled in a decade, to 119 gigawatts. [8]

   Why it matters

   Electricity is only 25% of all the energy Spain uses, short of its 35% aim for 2030. [8]

   How it works

   Moving cars and heating from fuel onto the grid is called electrification. [8]

   In Spain, taxes and network charges keep electricity dear while fuels pay less. [8] So fewer people switch. [8]

   Seen it before

   If the bus costs more than petrol, people keep driving, even when the bus is cleaner.

   Why China builds the most clean power while its share of the world's falls

   Statisticians say a share is one amount divided by a total, so it can fall while the amount grows, if the total grows faster.

   The twist

   A falling share does not mean a falling amount. China is set to build almost half again as much as in its last six years, while the rest of the world speeds up even more.

   The picture

   China's share, 202561%

   China's share, 2026 to 203153%

   Step by step

   1. 1 A share is one amount divided by a total
   2. 2 China adds almost 2,520 GW by 2031, about half again its last six years
   3. 3 The world's total grows faster still, to almost 4,800 GW
   4. 4 So China's share falls, from 61% to about 53%
   5. 5 Divide by people instead, and the UAE comes first

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Majorca quits coal

     Sun and wind make over 40% of Spain's electricity, but electricity is only 25% of the energy Spain uses, so the same clean power is a smaller share of the bigger total.

   • Ecuador's biggest solar plant

     82 megawatts is tiny next to China's gigawatts, but Ecuador had only about 131 megawatts of solar at the end of 2025, so one plant is a big share of its own total.

   • US solar factories

     The US can make more finished panels than it installs, but count the cells inside instead and the home-made share falls well short.

   • Old wind blades get a second life

     85% to 90% of a turbine can be recycled when counted by weight, and the hardest part, the blades, sits in the small share left over.

   Where you've seen this

   School results

   a school can get more passes while its pass rate falls, if more pupils sit the exam

   A football team

   a striker can score more goals than last season and still a smaller share of the team's, if teammates score more

   A growing town

   a town can grow and still become a smaller part of its country, if the cities grow faster

   The catch

   A share alone never tells you the size. You need the amount and the total behind it, or a falling share can hide a rising count.

   And the whole of it

   Every country in the IEA's report is building, and each one's share depends on all the others. A family adding panels in Pakistan, a planner in Riyadh and a factory owner in China each move the same total, and each sees only their own part of it.

   Good news

   • Majorca won approval to close its last coal units four years early, and Endesa says the island's power supply stays secure.

1. 11

   Ecuador switches on its biggest private solar plant

   What happened

   • Lighthouse, part of Ecuador's Difare Group, opened the 82-megawatt Faro de San Marcos solar plant on 5 November. [9]
   • It is Ecuador's largest operating privately owned solar plant, with more than 105,000 panels. [9]
   • Building it took 8 months, about 400 workers and $50 million. [9]
   • It should make about 106 gigawatt hours a year, enough for about 15,000 households, the company says. [9]
   • It began selling power early: the schedule had called for the first quarter of 2027. [9]

   How it unfolded

   1. Plan first quarter of 2027
   2. Done 5 November

   Why it matters

   Ecuador has sought more private power since the blackouts of 2024. [9]

   Ecuador had only about 131 megawatts of solar at the end of 2025, IRENA counted. [9] So this one plant is a big addition. [9]

   How it works

   Power markets can let a plant sell to named buyers through the shared grid. [9] Ecuador's state utility CNEL carries this plant's power. [9]

   So firms like the Tia shop chain buy solar power without fitting panels themselves. [9]

   Seen it before

   A family can get fresh milk from one farm through the local shop, without keeping a cow.

   82 megawatts is tiny next to China's gigawatts, but Ecuador had only about 131 megawatts of solar at the end of 2025, so one plant is a big share of its own total.

   The idea, in story 10: Why China builds the most clean power while its share of the world's falls →

   Good news

   • Ecuador's biggest private solar plant opened months ahead of schedule, and should make enough power for about 15,000 homes.
2. 12

   Sodium batteries close the cost gap with lithium

   What happened

   • Sodium-ion batteries will match the cell cost of today's common lithium batteries by late 2026, Wood Mackenzie expects. [23]
   • Wood Mackenzie's analysis covers China, the US, Germany and India. [23] It counts more than 70 gigawatt hours of sodium battery supply deals already signed. [23]
   • They cost about $229 a kilowatt hour, against about $200 for lithium iron phosphate, the common type. [23]
   • BYD, the Chinese carmaker, plans 30 gigawatt hours of sodium battery factories. [23]
   • Whole battery systems are not expected to match lithium's cost until after 2030. [23]

   Why it matters

   China exempted sodium batteries from a tax it brought back on lithium ones in July. [23]

   How it works

   Buyers compare the total cost of owning a battery over its life, not only its price. [23]

   Sodium costs more to buy but could cost 21% less to own over 20 years, Wood Mackenzie estimates. [23]

   Seen it before

   A cheap printer can cost more than a dear one once you keep buying its ink.

   The truth

   • Planned sodium factories already outstrip demand for the batteries, Wood Mackenzie finds. [23]
3. 13

   US solar factories make panels, not their parts

   What happened

   • US factories can now make more finished solar panels than the 47.9 gigawatts the US installed last year. [24]
   • They make fewer of the parts inside: cell factories can make up to 19.5 gigawatts a year. [24]
   • Polysilicon and wafers, the earliest steps, are not on track to match. [24]

   How it unfolded

   Developers grew their stock of solar equipment by 126% in the second quarter to beat trade deadlines. [25]

   1. Summer earlier trade deadlines
   2. 4 December new import price floors

   Why it matters

   Sabah Bayatli of OCI Energy, a Texas developer, says panels are hard to price without more US government guidance. [25]

   How it works

   A solar panel is the last of 4 steps: polysilicon, then wafers, then cells, then the panel. [24]

   US panel makers can import their cells, pv magazine reports. [25] So 'made at home' depends on which step is counted. [24]

   Seen it before

   A cake baked at home is not homemade all the way down if the flour came from a shop.

   The US can make more finished panels than it installs, but count the cells inside instead and the home-made share falls well short.

   The idea, in story 10: Why China builds the most clean power while its share of the world's falls →

   The truth

   • Who pays Buyers of power from new US solar farms — Tariff costs developers did not plan for flow into the price of the power, says OCI Energy's boss. [25]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much solar the US will build after 2030.

     The Rhodium Group's scenarios run from 8 to 52 gigawatts a year, so nobody knows how many wafer and polysilicon factories are needed. [24]

   What comes next

   On 4 December, new US import rules start for polysilicon, wafers, cells and panels. [25] They set minimum prices of $0.22 a watt for cells and $0.38 for panels. [25]

4. 14

   A blast of heat turns old wind blades into new ones

   What happened

   • Researchers heated old wind turbine blades to about 2,000C in seconds and turned them into useful materials. [26]
   • The method, flash joule heating, made silicon carbide and graphene from the blades' glass fibre and resin. [26]

   Who is involved

   Bing Deng, a chemical and environmental engineer at China's Tsinghua University, was the senior author. [26]

   • Bing Deng engineer, Tsinghua University

   How it unfolded

   Europe's old blade waste is expected to grow from 20,000 tonnes in 2025 to 55,000 tonnes by 2030. [26]

   Why it matters

   Many blades end up in landfill or are burned after about 20 years of work. [26]

   How it works

   Deng calls it 'upcycling': turning waste into something worth more than it was. [26]

   At such heat, carbon from the resin reacts with silica from the glass to form silicon carbide, a hard material. [26]

   Seen it before

   Stale bread turned into croutons is worth more than the old loaf was.

   85% to 90% of a turbine can be recycled when counted by weight, and the hardest part, the blades, sits in the small share left over.

   The idea, in story 10: Why China builds the most clean power while its share of the world's falls →

   The truth

   • The report gives no cost for doing this at the scale of Europe's blade waste. [26]

   Good news

   • Adding just 0.3% of the recovered powder made new blade resin 27% more resistant to stretching. [26]
5. 15

   40% of planned US data centres face a pause

   What happened

   • About 40% of planned US data centre capacity is in states whose new governors promised to stop or pause them. [13]
   • Bloomberg's figure comes from Cleanview, a market data firm. [13]
   • At least 17 local ballot measures passed or on track are outright bans on big data centres. [13]

   Who is involved

   Governors-elect in Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico and Texas campaigned on a pause. [13]

   Why it matters

   Bloomberg Intelligence says up to 10 gigawatts of data centres may miss next year's planned start. [13]

   The Data Center Coalition, an industry group, says towns that ban them will lose jobs and taxes to other towns. [13]

   The truth

   • Who gains Towns that keep allowing data centres — The Data Center Coalition says investment, jobs and taxes will move to places that have not banned them. [13]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How many US data centres will really be paused.

     The pauses were campaign promises, and the 10 gigawatts that may start late is one analyst's estimate. [13]

6. 16

   US power firms keep their growth plans after the vote

   What happened

   • Duke Energy, a big US power company, says its plans for data centres have not changed after the election. [15]
   • Duke's list of big new users waiting for power stays at 15.4 gigawatts. [15] It backs a $103 billion plan that leans on gas. [15]
   • Oncor, with more than 14 million customers in Texas, expects to raise its $47.5 billion five-year plan by 20%. [27]
   • Oncor's peak demand hit a record 33 gigawatts, 6% above last year's record. [27]
   • DTE, in Michigan, will sell its non-utility arm for $3 billion to pay for a larger investment plan. [28]

   Why it matters

   DTE's boss, Joi Harris, called data centres 'once-in-a-generation opportunities'. [28]

   The truth

   • Many voters backed candidates who promised to rein in data centres, Utility Dive notes. [15] Duke, Oncor and DTE all kept or grew their plans. [15][27][28]
7. 17

   A Scottish AI data centre drops its own green power plan

   What happened

   • DataVita, building a big AI data centre near Glasgow, now says it will run entirely on national grid power. [29]
   • The project still holds £202 million in guarantees from Britain's National Wealth Fund. [29]
   • DataVita says its grid power will come through a deal to buy renewable power. [29]

   How it unfolded

   It had promised more than 1 gigawatt of wind, solar and batteries wired straight to the site. [29]

   Why it matters

   New UK data centres wait years to connect to the grid, the Guardian reports. [29]

   The truth

   • Kat Jones, of Action to Protect Rural Scotland, says big AI data centres cannot run on renewables alone. [29] DataVita says it did not misrepresent its renewable plans. [29]
8. 18

   Protesters storm a data centre site in Amsterdam

   What happened

   • About 100 protesters climbed into a data centre building site in Amsterdam's Sloterdijk district. [14]
   • Police surrounded them, riot officers moved in and several arrests were reported. [14]
   • In Switzerland, Greenpeace spread a 676-square-metre banner beside a planned STACK Infrastructure data centre. [30]

   Who is involved

   Pure Data Centres is building the site for Microsoft. [14] It has 3 towers about 85 metres high and costs over $1 billion. [14]

   Why it matters

   Greenpeace says 2 planned centres in Beringen could use 1.5 times the power of the whole Schaffhausen region. [30]

   The Amsterdam protesters object to the site's power use and its effect on housing plans. [14]

   The truth

   • The protesters say the site could use as much power as all Amsterdam homes. [14] That claim has not been independently checked. [14]

   What comes next

   Greenpeace wants a national pause on new big data centres until binding rules exist. [30]

9. 19

   Amazon orders 3,000 electric trucks for India

   What happened

   • Tata Motors, an Indian carmaker, will supply Amazon with 3,000 electric trucks for its network in India. [31]
   • Electrek says it will be the largest electric truck rollout in India. [31]
   • The trucks are 7.5-tonne Tata Ultra E.7s, with a loaded range of up to 130 kilometres, Tata says. [31]

   Who is involved

   India's heavy industries minister, Kumaraswamy, said a government scheme, PM E-DRIVE, will keep backing the switch. [31]

   • Kumaraswamy India's heavy industries minister

   How it unfolded

   Amazon already runs more than 15,000 electric vehicles in over 500 Indian cities. [31]

   Why it matters

   The trucks will move goods between warehouses, beyond the last leg to people's doors. [31]

10. 20

    EVgo opens its first Tesla Superchargers

    What happened

    • EVgo, a US charging company, opened its first Tesla Supercharger site, in a Chicago grocery store car park. [32]
    • It has 12 fast-charging stalls with both of the main US plug types. [32]
    • It is the first of hundreds of Supercharger stalls EVgo plans across the US. [32]
    • EVgo owns the stations, and Tesla runs and maintains them. [32]

    Who is involved

    • EVgo owns them
    • Tesla runs them

    Why it matters

    Drivers of other makes with the right plug can start a charge through the Tesla app. [32]

11. 21

    Liebherr builds a 250-tonne electric digger

    What happened

    • Liebherr, a German machine maker, launched a 250-tonne all-electric mining excavator, the R 9300 G8-E. [33]
    • It has an 850-kilowatt electric drive, about 1,140 horsepower. [33]
    • It plugs into a mine's power supply of 6 to 6.6 kilovolts. [33] Liebherr says it runs quietly and gives off no exhaust. [33]

    How it unfolded

    Liebherr began converting diesel diggers to electric in small numbers in 2024. [33]

    Why it matters

    Liebherr says the electric drive has thousands fewer moving parts, which can cut upkeep. [33]

    Electrek reports the earlier electric diggers saved millions of dollars in fuel and upkeep. [33]

12. 22

    The super El Nino should peak in December

    What happened

    • Most of 14 climate models expect this year's El Nino to peak in December, a Carbon Brief analysis finds. [16]
    • Zeke Hausfather studied more than 600 forecasts from 14 models for Carbon Brief. [16]
    • They expect a peak near 4C above normal, more than a degree above the 2015 to 2016 record. [16]

    Who is involved

    El Nino is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific that releases ocean heat into the air. [16]

    Why it matters

    Carbon Brief gives 2027 a 96% chance of being the warmest year on record, at about 1.74C above pre-industrial. [16]

    How it works

    Carbon Brief says world temperatures usually lag the tropical Pacific by about 3 months. [16]

    So an El Nino that peaks in December warms the world most in 2027. [16]

    Seen it before

    A radiator turned off still warms the room for a while afterwards.

    The truth

    • Hausfather said it may be the strongest El Nino in 1,000 years. [16] Sea temperature records only go back to the mid-1800s. [16]
    • Nobody knows yet

      How hot 2027 will be.

      Carbon Brief's 96% chance rests on how past El Ninos behaved, and Hausfather says nothing like this one is in the record. [16]

13. 23

    Dry soil makes the worst heatwaves 10% hotter

    What happened

    • A new study finds dry soil, high air pressure and heat feed each other in the worst heatwaves. [17] That makes them 10% hotter. [17]

    Who is involved

    Kai Kornhuber, of IIASA, a research institute in Austria, led the work. [17]

    • Kai Kornhuber IIASA, Austria

    How it unfolded

    In 2022 the UK passed 40C for the first time, years before models expected it. [17]

    The 2021 heatwave in the US and Canada's Pacific Northwest also went far past what climate models projected. [17]

    Why it matters

    Europe, Russia, North America, parts of South America and Australia will hit the trigger more often as the world warms. [17]

    How it works

    Climate scientists call this a feedback loop: each part makes the others stronger. [17]

    Dry soil stops cooling the land by evaporation. [17] The hot, dry land then helps hold the high pressure in place. [17]

    Seen it before

    A crowd gets louder because each person shouts over the noise the others make.

    The truth

    • Dim Coumou, of the Free University of Amsterdam, says climate models do not reproduce this loop well. [17]
14. 24

    UK horse chestnuts flower six months early

    What happened

    • UK horse chestnut trees are flowering more than 6 months early after a mild autumn, the Woodland Trust says. [18]

    Who is involved

    Chris Nichols leads conservation work at the Woodland Trust, a UK woodland charity. [18]

    • Chris Nichols Woodland Trust

    How it unfolded

    October was the UK's 9th month in a row warmer than average. [18]

    In the summer heat, many trees lost their leaves early, and England's ancient oaks are dying. [18]

    Why it matters

    Flowers out of season can miss the insects that pollinate them, Nichols warns. [18]

    How it works

    Nichols calls it an ecological mismatch: a plant and the insect it needs fall out of step. [18]

    Trees need to flower at a certain time of year so they are in step with the insects. [18]

    Seen it before

    A party is no fun if you turn up on the wrong day.

15. 25

    A winter storm floods Gaza's tents

    What happened

    • The first winter storm flooded thousands of tents in Gaza on Saturday, Al Jazeera reports. [34]
    • Gaza's civil defence agency got about 1,500 calls for help in 10 hours. [34]
    • Water rose 30 to 40 centimetres in several shelter sites. [34]
    • A building in central Nuseirat partly collapsed in the wind and rain, and its residents were evacuated. [34]

    Who is involved

    More than 900,000 displaced people shelter in al-Mawasi, on Gaza's southern coast. [34]

    Why it matters

    Gaza's emergency committee says more than 1 million displaced people face winter and need about 200,000 tents. [34]

    The truth

    • Mohammed Salha of the Palestinian NGO Network says 180 to 200 trucks enter daily, against the 600 agreed. [34] About 40 carry aid. [34]
    • Who pays Families in Gaza's tents — An Al Jazeera reporter says open plastic sheeting cannot hold up against such rain, and Gaza's civil defence has not a single tent to give. [34]
16. 26

    Restoration starts after the New Forest fire

    What happened

    • Forestry England has begun restoring part of the New Forest burned in an August wildfire. [35]
    • The fire, which spread from a burning van on 9 August, destroyed more than 1 square kilometre. [35]
    • It burned rare heathland and ancient woodland, and a layer of peat that stores carbon. [35]
    • It cost the fire service an estimated £600,000. [35]

    How it unfolded

    It closed the A31, a main road between Hampshire and Dorset, for nearly 2 weeks. [35]

    Why it matters

    Burnt peat holds less carbon, so the fire cut the area's ability to store it. [35]

    Good news

    • Teams are reseeding heather and protecting the most fragile areas before winter. [35]
17. 27

    Japan's emptying villages lose their wildlife

    What happened

    • Wildlife is vanishing from Japan's emptying countryside, where farms have been abandoned, Yale Environment 360 reports. [36]
    • A 2025 study found wildlife held steady only where the human population did. [36]
    • Where people left, butterflies, fireflies, frogs, birds and native plants fell. [36]

    How it unfolded

    Around Lake Constance in the Alps, plant variety peaked in medieval times, when small farms made a patchwork of fields. [36]

    1. Medieval times small farms, most plant variety
    2. Now fewer farms, fewer kinds of plant

    Why it matters

    The same is happening from Spain to China as rural people move to cities. [36]

    How it works

    Ecologists say many farm species evolved alongside people, in a patchwork of rice paddies, pasture and woods. [36]

    When farming stops, nature takes the land back, and species that needed people's care lose out. [36]

    Seen it before

    A garden left alone fills with weeds, and the flowers that needed weeding vanish.

18. 28

    Wales ends its tree planting in Uganda

    What happened

    • The Welsh government will stop funding a tree-planting scheme in Uganda after March 2027. [37]
    • Size of Wales, a climate charity, has planted more than 25 million trees around Mbale, in eastern Uganda. [37]
    • Ministers cited budget pressures. [37] Reform UK had called the scheme woke spending. [37]

    Who is involved

    • Welsh ministers budget pressures
    • Reform UK called it woke

    How it unfolded

    Wales has given the charity more than £4 million since 2015. [37]

    Why it matters

    The previous government said the trees protect people near Mount Elgon from deadly landslides. [37]

    The truth

    • Earlier ministers said the scheme cost about £270,000 a year, 0.001% of the Welsh budget in 2025. [37]
19. 29

    COP31 opens Monday, ten years after Paris

    What happened

    • COP31, the UN's yearly climate summit, runs in Antalya, Turkey, from 9 to 20 November. [38]
    • The UN's most hopeful estimate now points to about 1.7 to 1.8C of heating. [40]

    Who is involved

    Turkey hosts it, and Australia, a big coal exporter, leads the negotiations. [39]

    • Turkey host
    • Australia leads the talks

    How it unfolded

    World temperatures have been above 1.5C of heating for 2 years, the Guardian notes. [40]

    1. 9 November COP31 opens
    2. 20 November it is due to close

    Why it matters

    Warming now runs at 0.4C a decade, against 0.2C when the Paris deal was signed in 2015. [40] The Paris timetable was set for that slower pace. [40]

    How it works

    Diplomats call it consensus: a decision passes only if no country objects. [40]

    So Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil states often veto measures, the Guardian reports. [40]

    Seen it before

    A family choosing a film where anyone can say no often ends up watching nothing.

    The truth

    • Turkey, a co-host, plans to raise its emissions. [40] Australia has set no end to its fossil fuel exports. [40]
20. 30

    The UN climate science panel runs short of money

    What happened

    • The IPCC, the UN panel that sums up climate science, goes into COP31 short of money, Inside Climate News reports. [41]
    • Its yearly budget is $9.7 million, which governments pay as they choose. [41]
    • More than 100 IPCC scientists wrote to leaders on 19 October asking for enough money. [41]

    How it unfolded

    Its October meeting broke up without a budget for next year or a timetable for its reports. [41]

    Why it matters

    Without a timetable, scientists cannot plan the reports that track whether countries keep their Paris promises. [41]

    How it works

    The IPCC has no fixed fees: each government decides each year what to give. [41]

    The US once paid up to a third of the budget. [41] When the Trump administration withdrew, that money went too. [41]

    Seen it before

    A class fund that relies on gifts shrinks fast when its biggest giver stops.

    The truth

    • Nobody knows yet

      Whether the IPCC will have money for next year.

      Governments choose each year what to give to its $9.7 million budget, and next year's is still uncertain. [41]

    What comes next

    The IPCC resumes its meeting online in December, after COP31. [41]

21. 31

    An IEA plan to make buildings 25% less wasteful

    What happened

    • An IEA report for COP31's hosts says buildings can use energy 25% more efficiently by 2035. [42]
    • Meeting that target means more than doubling today's pace of improvement. [42]
    • Better equipment gives 40% of the gain and clean cooking 25%. [42] Better walls and windows give 20%, and switching to electric up to 15%. [42]

    Who is involved

    Turkey and Australia asked for the report, as the hosts of COP31. [42]

    • Turkey COP31 host
    • Australia COP31 host

    Why it matters

    Buildings use about 30% of the world's final energy and half of its electricity. [42]

    How it works

    Energy engineers measure energy intensity: the energy used for each unit of service. [42]

    So intensity can fall 25% while more people and higher incomes raise demand. [42]

    Seen it before

    A thriftier car can drive more miles in a week and still burn less fuel per mile.

22. 32

    Most Europeans in a poll want climate action soon

    What happened

    • Most people in 6 European countries want action on climate change soon, a YouGov poll finds. [43]
    • Between 69% in Germany and 80% in France said the climate is changing. [43]
    • Between 65% and 83% in each country said they were worried about it. [43]
    • Between 79% and 89% said countries tackle it better by working together. [43]

    How it unfolded

    In France, worry rose from 74% in April to 83% by mid-August, after summer heatwaves. [43]

    1. April 74% worried in France
    2. Mid-August 83% worried

    Why it matters

    But most did not want to sacrifice too much to get there, the Guardian reports. [43]