COP31 opens in Antalya on Monday with Australia's Chris Bowen, minister of a top coal and gas exporter, running the negotiations

The stories

13 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   COP31 opens in Antalya on Monday with Australia's Chris Bowen, minister of a top coal and gas exporter, running the negotiations

   35%

   of the world's energy as electricity by 2035, the hosts' goal

   about 20% today, and so far only voluntary [3]

   A$141bn

   Australia's expected coal and gas exports this financial year

   its minister, Chris Bowen, runs the talks [1]

   38

   coal, oil and gas projects Australia has approved since 2022

   a count by Climate Action Network Australia [1]

   2.6C

   the warming the world is heading for, by the UN's count

   it has warmed 1.4C so far [2]

   What happened

   • COP31, the UN's yearly climate summit, opens on Monday in Antalya, a resort city in Turkey. [1][6]
   • Nearly 200 countries will negotiate there for 2 weeks, from 9 to 20 November. [1][5]
   • Chris Bowen, Australia's climate and energy minister, will run the negotiations. [1]
   • His country is one of the world's biggest sellers of coal and gas. [1]
   • The hosts want 35% of the energy the world uses to come as electricity by 2035. [3][4]
   • Today it is about 20%, Bloomberg says. [3] AP puts it at 21%. [2]
   • Electric cars, heat pumps and electric factory machines would replace engines, gas boilers and fuel-burning processes. [4][3]
   • For now the goal is voluntary. [3] Bowen wants it in a decision that every country signs. [3]
   • Bowen told the Guardian his 3 aims: limit warming past 1.5C, money for poorer countries, and the electricity goal. [1]
   • Two months ago the UN changed its 1.5C goal, because the world is passing that line, AP reports. [2]
   • The world has warmed 1.4C so far and is heading for 2.6C, the UN found. [2]
   • Australia is the second biggest exporter of coal for power stations, and the biggest of coal for steel. [1]
   • About 1 in 5 of the world's liquefied natural gas exports also leaves from Australia. [1]
   • Australia's government expects these fuels to earn A$141bn, about US$98bn, this financial year. [1]
   • More than 500 scientists wrote that Australia "cannot credibly lead on climate abroad" while it expands coal and gas. [1]
   • Bowen rejects the charge that a big exporter cannot lead. [1] He says every country is making the change, and Australia's move off coal power is recognised. [1]
   • Last year in Belem, Brazil, the final COP30 text did not mention fossil fuels at all. [6] More than 80 countries had backed plans to leave them. [6]
   • This year, plans to move off fossil fuels are not on COP31's formal agenda. [1][4]
   • Brazil published a voluntary roadmap away from fossil fuels this week. [1][4] Experts said it has no benchmarks or timelines. [1]
   • Bill Hare, who heads the research group Climate Analytics, said Australia could push the roadmap: "Australia could do that." [1]
   • Hare said fossil fuels make about 75% of the world's emissions. [1]

   Who is involved

   Turkey and Australia both wanted to host, so they shared the job. [1]

   Murat Kurum is COP31's president for Turkey, and he announced the hosts' electricity goal. [4]

   The US, the biggest polluter in history, skipped last year's COP and is not expected at this one. [2]

   China's vice-president, Han Zheng, will attend the leaders' summit for President Xi Jinping. [5]

   Frank Jotzo is an economist at the Australian National University. [1] He expects Bowen's team to focus on "an orderly procedure with no surprises". [1]

   • Chris Bowen Australia's climate and energy minister; he runs COP31's negotiations
   • Turkey presides over the conference
   • Australia presides over the negotiations
   • The United States not expected at COP31
   • Han Zheng China's vice-president, sent by Xi Jinping
   • Murat Kurum COP31's president for Turkey, the host; he announced the electricity goal
   • Bill Hare head of Climate Analytics, a research group; he wants Australia to push a fossil fuel roadmap
   • Frank Jotzo an economist at the Australian National University; he expects a careful presidency

   How it unfolded

   Coal still made 33% of Turkey's electricity last year. [8] Solar and wind made nearly 23%. [8]

   In 2015 the Paris Agreement set a goal of well below 2C, and as close to 1.5C as possible. [6]

   Since 2022 the Albanese government has approved 38 coal, oil and gas projects, says Climate Action Network Australia. [1]

   It took 26 years of COP talks before a deal named fossil fuels, in Glasgow in 2021. [4]

   1. 9 Nov the talks open
   2. 20 Nov the talks are due to end
   3. 2015 the Paris Agreement sets its warming goals [6]
   4. Now 1.5C is being passed
   5. 2021 Glasgow's COP names fossil fuels in a deal for the first time [4]
   6. Last year Belem leaves them out
   7. 10 Nov carbon budget report
   8. 11-12 Nov world leaders' summit [5]
   9. Last year COP30's final text leaves fossil fuels out [6]
   10. This week Brazil publishes a voluntary fossil fuel roadmap [1]
   11. 9 Nov COP31 opens in Antalya [1][5]

   Why it matters

   Countries that buy their fossil fuels abroad hold 3 in 4 of the world's people. [3] Dear oil is pushing them toward electricity. [3]

   Niklas Hohne, of Germany's NewClimate Institute, said of US climate money: "there's no other player who can jump in." [2]

   Watch whether the cover decision, the text every country must sign at the end, names fossil fuels at all. [1]

   How it works

   UN climate talks decide by consensus: a text passes only when every country agrees to it. [1]

   Jotzo said countries that want fossil fuel plans kept out "will simply prevail". [1] AP reports that is why fossil fuels rarely appear in final texts. [2]

   Seen it before

   A class choosing a trip where any one pupil can say no ends up with the trip nobody minds.

   The truth

   • What is really going on COP31 opens on Monday without any plan to move off fossil fuels on its formal agenda, and with Australia, which expects A$141bn from coal and gas exports this year, running the negotiations. [1][4]
   • Why it works on people A round-number goal, 35% of energy as electricity by 2035, is easy to cheer, and it says nothing about whether that electricity comes from coal or from the sun. [3][4]
   • The 35% goal does not say where the extra electricity comes from. [4] A country could meet it with power from coal. [4]
   • By 2030 governments plan to produce more than double the fossil fuels that fit a 1.5C limit. [4]
   • Who gains Countries that sell coal, oil and gas — Because every country must agree, any one of them can keep fossil fuel plans out of the final text. [1][2]
   • Who pays Poorer countries counting on climate money — With the US out of the talks, no other country is ready to take over its share, Niklas Hohne said. [2]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much warming the world is heading for.

     AP reports the UN found 2.6C, while New Scientist reports the world is on track for 2.8C. [2][6]

   • Nobody knows yet

     What share of the world's energy comes as electricity today.

     Bloomberg says about 20%, AP says 21%, and New Scientist cites an analyst's figure of about 23% of energy delivered to consumers. [3][2][7]

   Good news

   • Experts' main hope is how cheap solar and wind power now are, AP reports. [2] Electric car sales keep growing too. [2]

   What comes next

   A global carbon budget report comes out on 10 November. [5] World leaders meet in Antalya on 11 and 12 November. [5]

1. 02

   Senator's pipeline rule helps his old firm

   What happened

   • Alan Armstrong, a US senator for Oklahoma, pushed rules in a bill that would make gas pipelines easier to approve. [9]
   • He ran Williams, a big gas pipeline company, for 15 years until March. [9]
   • On 22 October he still held at least tens of millions of dollars in Williams shares, his filings show. [9]
   • The bill would limit what states can weigh when they review those permits. [9] It also limits court challenges. [9]

   Who is involved

   • Alan Armstrong US senator for Oklahoma since March

   How it unfolded

   New York blocked Williams's Constitution pipeline in 2016 by refusing it a water permit. [9] Williams now wants it revived. [9]

   1. 2016 New York refuses a water permit
   2. Now Williams asks to revive it
   3. Now the bill waits
   4. Next week a vote on the bill

   Why it matters

   There are 251 streams along the pipeline's route in upstate New York, and state regulators said 87 hold trout. [9]

   How it works

   Why the side that has to prove its case usually loses

   Lawyers call it the burden of proof: when the facts are unclear, the side that had to prove them loses, so who carries it often decides the fight.

   The twist

   Moving the burden of proof can settle a fight before a single new fact is found, because unclear facts count against whoever had to prove them.

   The picture

   TodayWilliams proves safe

   vsvs

   Under the billNew York proves harm

   Step by step

   1. 1 Every dispute has a rule on who must prove what
   2. 2 The facts are often unclear or hard to get
   3. 3 When they are, the side that had to prove them loses
   4. 4 So moving the burden changes results without any new facts

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • The senator's pipeline rule

     Today Williams must show its pipeline keeps New York's water clean, and the bill would make New York prove harm instead, to a higher standard.

   • Tesla's Solar Roof case

     Tesla kept failing to hand over its own records, so the judge treated fraud as decided and left the trial only the damages.

   • The solar import floor

     From 4 December importers must sign forms for their solar parts, so the job of showing a shipment qualifies falls on the importer.

   Where you've seen this

   Criminal courts

   the prosecution must prove guilt, so real doubt sets the accused free

   New medicines

   a drug maker must show a drug works and is safe before it can be sold

   Football video replays

   the referee's call stands unless the video clearly shows it was wrong

   Insurance claims

   the person claiming must show the loss happened before the insurer pays

   The catch

   No placement of the burden is free: a high bar for regulators lets more harmful projects through, and a high bar for builders stops some good ones.

   And the whole of it

   Families along New York's trout streams, a homeowner in California with no finished roof, and solar importers at US ports all live under rules about who must prove what. Most people do too, as neighbours, customers and taxpayers, usually without knowing which side the burden sits on.

   The truth

   • What is really going on In the US the same week, a senator holding tens of millions of dollars in Williams shares pushed pipeline rules that would help Williams. [9]
   • Armstrong's office did not answer Inside Climate News's questions. [9] Williams says it backs the whole bill. [9]
   • Who gains Williams, the gas pipeline company — States could weigh only direct discharges into water, so New York would find it harder to block the Constitution pipeline again. [9]
   • Who pays People along the Constitution pipeline route in upstate New York — New York could no longer weigh erosion or runoff from digging across their streams, only direct discharges. [9]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US permitting bill passes, and with the water permit limits in it.

     The vote is due next week, and New York is already in court over Williams's attempt to revive its pipeline. [9]

   What comes next

   The bill is due for a vote next week. [9]

1. 03

   Nationals leader fights EU deal's climate terms

   What happened

   • Matt Canavan, leader of Australia's Nationals party, says his party will not back an EU trade deal as written. [10]
   • He says the deal would bind Australia by law to the aims of the Paris Agreement, including net zero. [10]
   • The draft bars any act that "materially defeats" the Paris Agreement's purpose. [10]
   • Canavan says Australia should stay in the Paris deal, but cut emissions only where it can afford to. [10]
   • Trade minister Don Farrell says the deal is worth $10 billion in trade, with no renegotiation. [10]
   • Canavan also said he would rather live next to a nuclear power station than a wind turbine. [10]

   Who is involved

   • Matt Canavan leader of the Nationals, a senator for Queensland

   Why it matters

   He spoke as COP31 was about to open, with Australia's minister running the negotiations. [10][1]

   The truth

   • The ABC reports the deal is understood to reaffirm climate duties Australia already has. [10]
2. 04

   Iowa county blocks a gas plant site

   What happened

   • Linn County's 3 supervisors in Iowa voted unanimously in October to reject a site for a gas power plant. [12]
   • Fairfax, Atkins and Cedar Rapids, home to 140,000 people, all lie within 3 miles of the site. [12]
   • It would run only at busy times, a kind of plant called a peaker. [12]
   • Peakers burn more gas for each unit of power than the more efficient combined-cycle kind. [12] This one would emit about 1.5 million tons of greenhouse gases a year. [12]

   Who is involved

   Alliant Energy's Iowa arm wants to build it just outside the town of Fairfax. [12]

   • Alliant Energy power company behind the plan

   How it unfolded

   Google and QTS are building data centre campuses in Cedar Rapids that will use 1.6 gigawatts together. [12]

   1. October the county says no
   2. Next month the state commission hears it

   Why it matters

   Linn County's power demand could rise nearly fivefold if 3 data centre campuses are built, a local group says. [12]

   The truth

   • Alliant says it does not build plants for one customer. [12] Its staff said data centres are driving demand. [12]
   • Who pays Families near the proposed Iowa gas plant — Its exhaust towers would release carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and fine particles near their towns. [12]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Iowa's state commission will overrule Linn County on the gas plant.

     It has the power to, but campaigners say that would be unprecedented, and the hearing is next month. [12]

   What comes next

   Next month the Iowa Utilities Commission hears the case, and it can overrule the county. [12]

3. 05

   US solar import floor starts 4 December

   What happened

   • New US limits on imported solar parts start on 4 December, under a trade law called Section 232. [13]
   • They set minimum import prices: $0.22 a watt for solar cells and $0.38 for finished panels. [13]
   • Officials have not yet issued the forms importers must sign after the deadline. [13]
   • Sabah Bayatli, head of the developer OCI Energy, said "it is hard for the market to price solar modules today". [13]

   How it unfolded

   US developers grew their stock of solar gear 126% in the second quarter, to beat trade deadlines. [13]

   1. Summer earlier trade deadlines
   2. 4 Dec Section 232 limits start

   Why it matters

   Bayatli says tariffs that builders did not plan for will flow into the price of power. [13]

   How it works

   Economists call this a price floor: the lowest price the law allows, here for solar parts coming into the US. [13]

   Seen it before

   A shop that may not sell anything below a set price cannot undercut the shop next door.

   From 4 December importers must sign forms for their solar parts, so the job of showing a shipment qualifies falls on the importer.

   The idea, in story 02: Why the side that has to prove its case usually loses →

   The truth

   • Who pays Buyers of US solar power — Tariff costs that builders did not plan for will flow into higher prices for power deals, OCI Energy's boss says. [13]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether panels assembled in the US from imported cells can sell below $0.38 a watt after 4 December.

     Customs and commerce officials have not yet issued the forms and instructions importers need. [13]

4. 06

   Pakistan taxes petrol cars to fund EVs

   What happened

   • Pakistan's government unveiled a new car policy on Saturday that favours electric vehicles. [14]
   • A new levy on petrol cars above 1,000cc, ordinary family cars, would pay for the help to electric ones. [14]
   • Electric cars would pay 1% sales tax, range-extended cars 6% and hybrids 9%. [14]
   • Small petrol cars under 1,000cc, used by many families, are left out of the levy. [14]

   Who is involved

   That needs approval from the International Monetary Fund, whose programme Pakistan is committed to. [14]

   How it unfolded

   Electric two-wheeler sales rose to 240,000 in the last financial year, from 60,000 the year before. [14]

   Why it matters

   Haroon Akhtar Khan, the prime minister's industries adviser, said dear oil raises the import bill. [14] It also pushes up prices at home. [14]

   How it works

   The adviser called the plan "neutral revenue": the new levy pays for the tax cuts. [14]

   Economists call this revenue neutral, and here it lets Pakistan help electric cars within its IMF promises. [14]

   Seen it before

   A family that buys a new game by selling an old one keeps its pocket money the same.

   The truth

   • Who gains Buyers of electric cars in Pakistan — They would pay 1% sales tax, and state-backed car loans for them rise to 10 million rupees, repaid over five years instead of three. [14]
   • Who pays Pakistanis buying petrol cars over 1,000cc — A new levy on their cars pays for the tax cuts on electric ones. [14]

   Good news

   • Pakistan sold 240,000 electric two-wheelers in its last financial year, four times the 60,000 sold the year before.

   What comes next

   The goal is for 30% of new vehicles to be electric by 2030. [14]

5. 07

   Tesla found liable for Solar Roof fraud

   What happened

   • A California judge has ruled Tesla liable for fraud over a Solar Roof it never finished. [11]
   • Ambrose Conroy signed in 2020 for $82,210, and the deal grew to about $110,000. [11]
   • The roof never passed a county inspection and never made any power. [11]
   • Tesla has admitted breaking the contract and the warranty, and being negligent. [11]
   • On 11 September the judge deemed Tesla liable for fraud, after it failed to hand over records. [11]
   • Conroy says repairs will cost well over $2.5 million. [11] Tesla once offered him $5,000. [11]

   Who is involved

   Solar Roof was Tesla's roof of solar tiles, and Tesla installed only about 3,000 before ending it this year. [11]

   How it unfolded

   1. Feb and June two fines over records
   2. 11 Sept liable for fraud
   3. 20 Nov trial date dropped
   4. 4 Dec trial readiness hearing

   Why it matters

   Other installers are still dealing with Solar Roofs that Tesla left behind when it ended the product. [11]

   How it works

   Lawyers call it an issue sanction: a side that keeps hiding evidence loses that question without a trial. [11]

   So a jury would only set how much Tesla pays, not whether it committed fraud. [11]

   Seen it before

   A pupil who will not show their working can lose the marks, even when the answer is right.

   Tesla kept failing to hand over its own records, so the judge treated fraud as decided and left the trial only the damages.

   The idea, in story 02: Why the side that has to prove its case usually loses →

   The truth

   • Tesla has asked an appeal court to step in, calling the ruling "unduly punitive". [11]
   • Who gains Ambrose Conroy, the Solar Roof homeowner — With fraud treated as decided, a trial would only have to set how much Tesla pays him. [11]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much the Solar Roof case will cost Tesla.

     Liability is decided, but Tesla has asked an appeal court to step in and no damages have been set. [11]

   What comes next

   The 20 November trial date is off, and a hearing to get the case ready is set for 4 December. [11]

6. 08

   Warming may bring more lightning, unevenly

   What happened

   • Lightning could change from 11% less to 44% more for each degree of warming, a new review finds. [17]
   • The average of all its projections is 7.5% more per degree. [17] Other scientists are still checking the review. [17]
   • Most projections agree lightning will rise far from the equator, nearer the poles. [17]
   • South-east Australia's forests had 50% more dry lightning in 2000 to 2016 than in the 20 years before. [17]
   • Big fires can build their own storm clouds, whose lightning starts new fires. [17]
   • In Black Summer, Australia's 2019-2020 fires, there were almost as many fire clouds as in the 40 years before. [17]

   How it unfolded

   Dry lightning, which strikes without rain, is starting more fires in Australia, a report said last week. [17]

   Why it matters

   About 24,000 people die from lightning strikes each year around the world. [17]

   How it works

   In a storm cloud, small ice crystals hit soft ice pellets called graupel and pass on electric charge. [17]

   Warmer air holds more water and more energy, which can feed taller storm clouds. [17]

   Seen it before

   Rubbing a balloon on a jumper builds up charge until it sparks.

   The truth

   • Andrew Dowdy, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, says "large uncertainties" remain. [17]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much more lightning a warmer world will bring.

     Projections run from 11% less to 44% more per degree, and the review has not yet passed peer review. [17]

7. 09

   Victoria approves a 155-turbine wind farm

   What happened

   • Victoria, a state in Australia, approved the Meering West wind farm, with up to 155 turbines. [18]
   • It would make 1.3 gigawatts and store 1,000 megawatt-hours in batteries, with building due in 2029. [18]
   • The approval came a day before Victoria's government went into caretaker mode for the 28 November election. [18]
   • The opposition Coalition has promised to scrap VNI West, the new power line the farm would use. [18]

   Who is involved

   Farmer Tyler Nelson says more than 100 people objected, over noise, fire risk and land values. [18]

   • Tyler Nelson a neighbouring farmer who objected

   How it unfolded

   1. The day before the farm is approved
   2. 28 Nov the state election

   Why it matters

   So the farm's future could turn on who wins the election on 28 November. [18]

   The truth

   • Who pays Neighbours of the Meering West wind farm — Their requests, such as moving turbines away from their land, were not taken up, farmer Tyler Nelson says. [18]
8. 10

   Electric truck maker Harbinger raises $240 million

   What happened

   • Harbinger, a maker of electric delivery trucks, raised $240 million from investors. [15]
   • That is believed to be one of the biggest firm orders ever for medium or heavy electric trucks. [15]
   • Harbinger has raised over $650 million since 2021. [15]
   • It will spend the new money on power storage, power generation, self-driving software and defence. [15]

   How it unfolded

   It recently won a $300 million order from FedEx, the delivery firm, for 2,000 trucks. [15]

   Why it matters

   Delivery firms like FedEx and Amazon are moving to electric trucks to cut emissions and avoid dear diesel. [15]

   The truth

   • Electrek names Harbinger itself as the source of these figures. [15]

   Good news

   • FedEx has ordered 2,000 electric delivery trucks from Harbinger, believed to be one of the biggest such orders ever.
9. 11

   Lab solar cell cuts a hidden loss

   What happened

   • Scientists at ICFO, an institute for the science of light, found a way to cut one loss in solar cells. [16]
   • Solar cells lose some energy as light they give off, which is called the Boltzmann loss. [16]
   • The team used a thin silver layer so the cell gave off less light sideways. [16]
   • That raised the cell's efficiency by about 0.85%, a modest gain. [16]

   Who is involved

   Francisco Bernal Texca led the study, published in the journal Energy & Environmental Science. [16]

   • Francisco Bernal Texca first author of the study

   How it unfolded

   Today's ceiling in theory, the Shockley-Queisser limit, is 33.16%. [16] Panels on homes usually reach 20 to 23%. [16]

   Why it matters

   If the idea works in real panels, the same roof could make more power. [16] No such panel is on sale yet. [16]

   How it works

   Physicists describe a mismatch: a cell takes in sunlight from a narrow cone. [16] It gives off light in a much wider one. [16]

   Narrowing the cone of light a cell gives off lets less energy escape, so more can become power. [16]

   Seen it before

   A torch with a mirror behind the bulb sends its light one way instead of everywhere.

   The truth

   • The headline's "almost double" is the team's long-run aim. [16] The test cell itself gained about 0.85%. [16]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the cavity trick works in ordinary silicon panels.

     The test used an organic solar cell, and its gain was about 0.85%. [16]

   What comes next

   The team says that, in principle, cells could then approach 43%. [16]

10. 12

    Workhorse brings its electric trucks to Canada

    What happened

    • Workhorse, an electric truck maker, has signed its first dealer in Canada, Tristan Fleet Management. [20]
    • Tristan will sell and repair Workhorse's W56 electric trucks from 7 sites in Quebec and Ontario. [20]
    • Its trucks have now driven 20 million miles with no tailpipe emissions. [20]

    How it unfolded

    Workhorse has supplied electric trucks in Canada since 2021 through Purolator, a Canadian delivery company. [20]

    1. 2021 Purolator starts with Workhorse
    2. Now a first dealer is signed

    Why it matters

    Tristan says Quebec's Ecocamionnage incentives and very high fuel costs make going electric pay better than ever. [20]

    The truth

    • Electrek names Workhorse as its source for the story. [20]
    • Who gains Delivery fleets in Quebec and Ontario — A local dealer now sells and repairs Workhorse's electric trucks, with round-the-clock roadside help. [20]
11. 13

    Yamaha shows an electric scooter for Europe

    What happened

    • Yamaha showed the XENTER E, an electric scooter for European cities, at the EICMA show in Milan. [19]
    • It matches a 125cc petrol scooter, the kind many European commuters ride. [19]
    • Its 3.5 kWh battery gives a claimed range of 108 km. [19]
    • A public charging station fills it in about 5.5 hours. [19]

    Why it matters

    Electrek says Yamaha now looks serious about replacing its petrol 125cc scooters, not just adding to them. [19]

    The truth

    • The 108 km is Yamaha's own figure on a test cycle, and real riding is expected to give somewhat less. [19]

    What comes next

    Early reports from Milan put its price in Germany at 7,799 euros, with deliveries from spring 2027. [19]