Day Lila

Finance News · Monday, 7 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Oil is up about 8% in a week. The producers met on Sunday and added nothing, because they cannot agree the numbers their quotas are built on.

Finance News 31 sources

Brent crude traded near $96.80 a barrel on Monday after American and Iranian forces attacked each other's ships around the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ left October's output targets where they were, and Iran says it will fence off a stretch of sea outside the strait within days.

$96.80

a barrel of Brent crude on Monday morning, after a 7.8% rise last week

the strait most of it passes through is running about ten ships a day, the fewest since May [1][2]

0

extra barrels OPEC+ agreed for October at Sunday's meeting

its 21 members must first settle the 2027 figures each country's quota is measured from [3]

$5.90

a gallon of diesel in the United States on Saturday, an all-time high

diesel runs the lorries, trains and tractors that bring food and goods to a shop [6]

$79.6bn

wiped off Japan's foreign reserves in August, the largest fall on record

it spent 15.4 trillion yen buying its own currency between 30 July and 26 August [7]

The lead story — what happened

  • Brent crude, the price most of the world's oil is sold against, traded near $96.80 a barrel on Monday morning after rising 7.8% last week. [1][2]
  • US Central Command said its forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal. [1]
  • The navy of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had fired on three oil tankers using what it called unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and on three American vessels elsewhere. [1]
  • Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on Sunday that Iran will declare a restricted stretch of sea outside the strait within days. Ships entering it could face sanctions. [1][2]
  • About ten commodity ships a day crossed the strait over the past ten days, the fewest since May, according to the shipping-data firm Kpler. A fifth of the world's oil normally passes through it. [1][2]
  • OPEC+, a group of 21 oil-producing countries that includes Russia, met on Sunday and left October's output targets exactly where they were. [3][1]
  • The group says it cannot decide on more oil until it agrees new 2027 baselines. A baseline is the reference figure each member's own quota is calculated from, and those talks are only expected later this year. [3]
  • Its members are already pumping well below the targets they have, so a higher target would not have put another barrel on the water anyway. [3]
  • The maritime intelligence firm Marisks called Saturday's attacks a major escalation, and said commercial tankers are now being used deliberately by each side to raise the other's costs. [1]
  • The bank ANZ expects Gulf exports to stay squeezed for the rest of 2026, with a gradual reopening late in the year and pre-war traffic not back until early 2027. [1]
  • Dearer oil is the main reason the European Central Bank is expected to raise its rate to 2.75% on Thursday. [4] Traders put the chance of a US rate rise at its 16 September meeting at somewhere between 50% and 60%. [4][8][9]
  • American drivers paid an average $5.90 a gallon for diesel on Saturday, a record. Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, said on Sunday that the answer to a shortage is to produce more. [6]

Who is involved

  • OPEC+

    an alliance of 21 oil-producing countries, Russia among them, that agrees how much crude each will pump; it made no change for October [3]

  • Mohsen Rezaei

    secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the body that sets the country's security policy; he announced the coming restricted zone [1]

  • US Central Command

    the American military headquarters covering the Middle East; it said it struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday [1]

  • Chris Wright

    the United States energy secretary; he told CBS that the US government's focus is producing as much energy as possible [6]

  • Kpler

    an analytics firm that counts ship movements; it reported Hormuz traffic at about ten vessels a day, the fewest since May [1]

How it unfolded

  1. Saturday US forces strike three Iranian oil tankers; Iran's Revolutionary Guard fires on three tankers and three American vessels [1]
  2. Sunday OPEC+ meets and leaves October output unchanged [3]
  3. Sunday Iran says a restricted zone outside the strait is coming within days [1][2]
  4. Monday Brent trades near $96.80 and Hormuz traffic sits at about ten ships a day [1][2]
  5. Friday US inflation figures for August land, days before the rate decision on 16 September [4]

Where this points

Watch where Iran draws the line when it publishes the restricted zone, because a boundary covering the approaches would cut traffic further and a narrow one would let insurers price it.

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Fear of a longer blockade High

Iran says it will fence off water outside the strait within days [1]

Room for producers to add oil Easing

OPEC+ members already pump below the targets they hold [3]

Pressure on central banks to raise rates Building

dearer fuel is why Europe's central bank is expected to lift its rate on Thursday [4]

The dollar's pull Easing

higher US rate bets did not lift it, with US debt above $40 trillion in view [8][13]

The rest of the day

21 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Japan's reserves have their biggest fall ever

    Japan's foreign reserves stood at $1.208 trillion at the end of August, down $79.6 billion in a month, its finance ministry said on Monday. That is the largest fall ever recorded. It was led by sales of foreign securities, which are mostly US government bonds and make up about 70% of the reserves. Japan spent 15.4 trillion yen, about $98.66 billion, buying its own currency between 30 July and 26 August. Part of that was done jointly with the United States, the first time the two have acted together since 2011. [7]

    Why it matters — The yen went from about 164 per dollar to 155.20, slid back toward 160, and is now near 156. The money is spent and the currency is roughly where the buying left it. To avoid selling more American bonds, Japan can now draw dollars from a US central bank facility built in 2020. [7][8]

  2. 03

    The dollar will not rise on its own good news

    Traders spent Monday morning pricing in a better chance that the US central bank raises rates on 16 September, and the dollar barely moved. Against a basket of currencies it slipped 0.07% to 99.09, close to its recent low of 98.558. A higher interest rate normally pulls money toward a currency. Reuters reported that worries about US government debt were pulling the other way. Elias Haddad of the bank BBH said other central banks raising at the same time removes the gap that usually favours the dollar. [8][9]

    Why it matters — The euro was $1.1618 and the pound $1.3519, both little changed. Reuters put the dollar's weakness partly down to worries about ever-growing US debt, which now stands above $40 trillion. [8][13]

  3. 04

    Korea's leveraged chip funds lose most of their value

    South Korea allowed single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds about three months ago. These let an ordinary investor take a magnified bet on one company's shares, with the bet reset every day. Since late May the fund tracking the memory-chip maker SK Hynix has fallen to a third of its starting value, and the one tracking Samsung Electronics has lost half, the Nikkei reported. Neither share has fallen anything like that far. Both have swung violently instead, and the losses have become a political argument in Seoul over whether the products harmed the people who bought them. [11]

    Why it matters — SK Hynix rose 6.1% and Samsung 4% on Monday alone, which shows the size of the daily swings. A fund that resets its bet each morning loses money on those swings even when the share ends near where it began. [10][11]

  4. 05

    China puts $54bn into its state insurers and banks

    China's finance ministry said on Sunday it will inject a combined $54 billion into state-owned insurers and banks. China Life, the country's largest life insurer, receives 35 billion yuan, about $5.2 billion. China Taiping gets 7 billion yuan, the People's Insurance Company of China is selling up to 15 billion yuan of new shares to China's finance ministry, China Export and Credit Insurance gets 10 billion and China Reinsurance 3 billion. Chinese insurers have been squeezed by years of very low interest rates, and many smaller ones have reported weakening capital. [12]

    Why it matters — Some of these insurers had been directed to support China's stock market with long-term money. The state is now refilling the capital that job used up, which makes the injection part of the cost of the market-support policy rather than a separate rescue. [12]

  5. 06

    US borrowing costs face a test at 4.8%

    The rate the US government pays to borrow for ten years sat near 4.784% on Monday, close to its highest since late 2023. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, wrote that a sustained move above 4.8% would be particularly concerning. It would mean worries about US borrowing were beating official attempts to talk the rate down. In August the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, announced a buyback of long-dated US government debt. It worked briefly, then the 30-year rate returned to 5.27%, exactly where it stood before he announced it. [13][14][4]

    Why it matters — More than $8.4 trillion of US government debt has to be refinanced before the end of the year, and September could be a record month for company bond sales. The US government is competing for the same lenders. Talking moves a rate for a few days. The amount that has to be borrowed does not change. [13]

  6. 07

    Asian shares jump as chipmakers rally

    Asian markets rose sharply on Monday. South Korea's KOSPI index climbed 3.4% and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose about 1.9%, with SK Hynix up 6.1% and Samsung Electronics up 4%. The move followed a rise in American chip shares after OpenAI launched a new model, which revived expectations of more spending on the machines that run artificial intelligence. Japan's Kioxia gained 7.6% and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 1.5%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific index added 1.1%. American markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday, so trading was thin. [10][4][18]

    Why it matters — Dearer oil and a strong US jobs report made a rate rise more likely this week, and higher bond yields normally pull share prices down by raising the return investors demand from riskier assets. [15][4] In Asia on Monday the chip story won anyway. [10]

  7. 08

    Goldman Sachs raises its target for Asian shares

    Goldman Sachs lifted its forecast for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index to 1,120 from 1,080, which it says implies about 26% upside from where the index sits. Its stated reason is earnings. Second-quarter profits across that index grew 102% from a year earlier, with 44% of companies beating expectations against 27% missing. Goldman said the growth was led by Singapore, Taiwan and Indonesia while Australia, Malaysia and India lagged, and that it favours chip and computer-hardware companies. Its 12-month target for South Korea's KOSPI is 12,000. [16]

    Why it matters — A bank's target is its own opinion and nothing more. The 102% earnings figure underneath it is measured, and it says the Asian half of the AI build-out is now showing up in company profits rather than only in announcements. [16]

  8. 09

    India's rupee is being held up by its central bank

    The Indian rupee rose 0.9% last week to 94.4850 per dollar, its strongest in two months, held up by the Reserve Bank of India selling dollars day after day. Anil Bhansali of Finrex Treasury Advisors said India's central bank is now the biggest factor and the question is whether it follows through. India's ten-year government bond yield ended Friday at 6.9625%, a third straight weekly rise after climbing about 0.15 points over the previous fortnight. Spare cash in the Indian banking system passed 10 trillion rupees, about $105.84 billion, for the first time on record. [5]

    Why it matters — India buys most of its oil abroad and pays for it in dollars, so a dearer barrel pushes the rupee down and forces India's central bank to spend more holding it up. The oil price in the lead story therefore decides how much of India's savings goes on defending its own currency. [5]

  9. 10

    About $9bn of Iranian money passed through US banks

    While the US government tightens sanctions meant to cut Iran out of the financial system, Iranian money keeps moving through American banks. The US Treasury identified about $9 billion of Iranian funds that passed through US lenders in 2024 alone, the Wall Street Journal reported. Iran uses foreign partners and front companies to disguise the transactions, which makes them hard for a bank to spot. The report ran on the same weekend that American and Iranian forces attacked each other's ships around the Strait of Hormuz. [19]

    Why it matters — Sanctions work by making banks check who they are paying. When the checking is the weak part, a rule can be strict on paper and leaky in the payment system that is supposed to enforce it. [19]

  10. 11

    Sugar has its best month since 2010

    Sugar prices rose 21.5% in August, the biggest monthly gain since October 2010. A summer heatwave cut expected sugar-beet yields in the European Union. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization also blamed worries about Asian production, lower output in Brazil, and India's decision to let raw sugar in without duty. The European Commission now expects EU production to fall 19% to 13.4 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, from 16.6 million. Sugar is up about 20% in 2026, ahead of the 13% rise in the S&P 500 index of large American companies. [20]

    Why it matters — Sugar beet grows in the same fields and the same months as corn and wheat, so a heatwave that damages one threatens all three. William Osnato of Barchart said forecasters have all been moving their estimates the same way, toward a bigger shortfall. [20]

  11. 12

    China's central bank has bought 2,366 tonnes of gold

    China's central bank has raised its reported gold holdings from about 1,950 tonnes when it resumed buying in November 2022 to roughly 2,366 tonnes by July 2026. It added about 225 tonnes in 2023, its largest year on record, and about 20 tonnes in July, its strongest month since October 2023. Estimates built from customs data, refinery exports and physical demand put official buying since January 2024 at 161.6 tonnes, against the 130.9 tonnes the bank reported. Chinese regulators also let ten insurers hold gold last year, capped at 1% of their assets. [21]

    Why it matters — Hong Kong is building vaults that could hold more than 2,000 tonnes, up from about 200 now, along with a clearing system and a delivery link to the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Buying the metal is one business; storing, clearing and settling everyone else's is a much larger one. [21]

  12. 13

    An Angolan group buys a third of Angola's second bank

    Congolian Financial has agreed to buy 33.35% of Banco de Fomento Angola, the country's second-largest bank, from the Portuguese lender Banco BPI for at least $452 million. The payment comes in three parts: 345 million euros on completion, about 43.5 million euros in May 2027, and a variable sum equal to half of the bank's 2026 dividend on those shares. BPI has been trying to leave Angola since 2017 under pressure from European regulators, and once owned 48.1% of the bank. It expects the sale to add about 9 million euros to its accounting equity. [22]

    Why it matters — The deal still needs Angola's central bank and its capital market commission to clear it. Unitel, the Angolan telecoms company that owns the majority of the bank, also has a contractual right to buy the shares first, and if it uses that right the sale does not happen. [22]

  13. 14

    Games makers argue tariff refunds are theirs to keep

    Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo all raised games console prices after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs by executive order last year. At the time they blamed market conditions. The US Supreme Court then ruled those tariffs illegal, which forced the US government to refund the companies that had paid them. Sony's lawyers have now asked a court to throw out a class action from customers, arguing the buyers suffered no injury because they paid the advertised price and got working consoles. Walmart and Costco say they will pass their refunds back to shoppers. [23]

    Why it matters — A court now has to decide who owns money collected under a tax that was later ruled illegal. Sony says the buyers agreed to the advertised price and got working consoles, so the refund belongs to the company. No court has ruled yet. [23]

  14. 15

    France pays the most to borrow since 2008

    France's ten-year government borrowing cost has reached 4.2%, its highest since 2008, according to Goldman Sachs. The gap between French and German ten-year rates, the usual measure of how risky lenders think France is, has widened past 0.8 percentage points. French public debt is approaching 120% of the size of the economy, the budget deficit is above 5%, and a split parliament makes spending cuts hard to pass. Marine Le Pen leads first-round polling above 30%, ahead of Edouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Melenchon on about 15% to 20% each. [26]

    Why it matters — The CAC 40, France's main share index, has been Europe's weakest large-company index in 2024, 2025 and 2026, trailing the STOXX 600 by 7.8%, 5.2% and 6.8%. Only about 15% of those companies' sales are made in France, so the discount is about France's public finances rather than the businesses. [26]

  15. 16

    Apple's launch could go against its shares

    Brandon Nispel, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, told clients that Apple's iPhone event on 9 September is likely to push its share price down rather than up. Apple has two uncomfortable choices. It can raise prices across the range and risk shocking buyers, or raise them on selected models and invite questions about its profit margins. KeyBanc expects three new iPhones, including a first folding model. KeyBanc kept an Underweight rating and a $250 target against a share price of $324.96, and expects about 80 million iPhone 18s built across two quarters. [24][25]

    Why it matters — Nispel wrote that neither pricing choice is a good outcome, and that Apple's September event is usually followed by a modest fall in the shares. A launch normally lifts a phone maker; this one has investors asking what the phone will cost to build. [24][25]

  16. 17

    Microsoft will publish Azure's revenue on its own

    Microsoft said it will start reporting quarterly revenue for Azure, its cloud computing business, and will cut its reporting segments from three to two. The structure it is replacing has been in place since 2015. Azure has been one of the largest winners of the AI boom, and analysts at Stifel estimated in July that about half of Azure's revenue growth in Microsoft's 2026 financial year came from OpenAI alone. Amazon began disclosing revenue for its cloud arm in 2015 and Alphabet did the same in 2020. [27]

    Why it matters — Until now investors could only see Microsoft's cloud growth folded inside a larger number. Publishing the figure means anyone can check the AI story against one line rather than inferring it from the total. [27]

  17. 18

    The AI land rush reaches American farmland

    Land bought in the United States for future data centres reached about $6 billion in the first half of 2026, a 79% rise on a year earlier, CNBC reported. Data centres need large amounts of land, electricity and water, so builders are going to rural areas where all three are cheaper. Sid Miller, the Texas agriculture commissioner, told a protest in Lubbock in July that developers were taking the state's best farmland and paying sometimes ten times its value. That, he said, made it hard for farmers to refuse. [28]

    Why it matters — The farmers who sell are getting far more than the land was worth for growing crops. The neighbours who did not sell now compete with a data centre for water, power and road space. [28]

  18. 19

    Zscaler grows 25% as firms pay to police AI

    The cybersecurity company Zscaler reported quarterly revenue up 25% from about $719 million a year earlier, and cut its net loss to $3.37 million from $17.58 million. Its annual recurring revenue, the yearly value of its subscriptions, also rose 25%, to $3.77 billion, beating a $3.75 billion estimate. Chief executive Jay Chaudhry said demand is coming from companies trying to control what AI software is allowed to reach inside their networks, and called it a longer-term opportunity with significant barriers to entry. Security shares have risen sharply this year on that demand. [31]

    Why it matters — Every company putting AI software to work has to decide what it may touch and what it may not. That decision is turning into a subscription somebody sells. [31]

  19. 20

    Gold ends a week of swings almost exactly flat

    Gold traded flat at $4,426.93 an ounce on Monday morning. It finished last week at $4,429, down 0.6%, after crossing above and below $4,400 repeatedly as traders changed their minds about US rates. Silver rose 0.2% to $66.37 an ounce and platinum fell 0.5% to $1,813.77. Gold pays no income, so a higher interest rate makes cash more attractive by comparison and normally weighs the metal down. [17]

    Why it matters — Two forces are cancelling out. The fighting around the Strait of Hormuz pushes people toward gold, and the growing chance of a US rate rise pulls them back to cash. [17]

  20. 21

    Citi builds a gauge for the new US central bank chief

    Citi has built what it calls a Warsh shadow rate, a gauge assembled from the indicators Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the US central bank, said he watches in his speech at Jackson Hole. Warsh put weight on underlying inflation, the money supply, jobless claims, financial conditions and share prices, and played down inflation expectations, wages and the headline jobs number. Citi says the measures he favours are mostly pointing toward tighter policy while the ones he plays down have softened, and that the gauge is near levels seen before past rate-raising cycles. [30]

    Why it matters — Citi's own economists still do not expect a rise this month. They say August inflation on Friday decides it: a core rise of 0.3% or more makes an increase likely, 0.1% would probably delay it, and 0.2% settles nothing. [30]

  21. 22

    Hong Kong counts its Belt and Road listings

    More than 100 companies from countries in China's Belt and Road programme are now listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a combined market value above HK$340 billion, about $43.4 billion. Hong Kong's financial secretary published the figure in his weekly blog and said more state-owned companies from Central Asia are preparing to list in the city. Belt and Road is China's programme of trade and infrastructure investment across Asia, Africa and Europe. [29]

    Why it matters — A stock exchange lives on which companies choose to list on it. Hong Kong's government is publicly counting the ones that came through China's Belt and Road programme, and says more state-owned firms from Central Asia are on the way. [29]

02 Lesson why it matters

A fall and a rise of the same size do not cancel

Take 20% off 100 and you have 80. Put the same 20% back and you have 96, not 100.

The twist

Twenty percent off 100 is 20, and twenty percent back on 80 is only 16, so a price that falls and rises by the same percentage always ends lower than it started.

How it works

  1. A fall is measured from the big number
  2. The climb back is measured from the smaller one
  3. So the same percentage does not get you home
  4. Down a half needs up a double
  5. Anything that resets its bet each day pays that gap on every swing
  6. The price returns to where it started and the money does not

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • Korea's leveraged funds on chip shares

    the fund tracking SK Hynix is worth a third of what it started at, so it now needs to triple, while the share itself has not fallen by anything like two-thirds

  • Japan's record fall in reserves

    the yen was bought up from 164 to 155.20, slid back toward 160 and sits near 156, so the currency made the round trip and $79.6bn did not come back with it

  • The failed attempt to talk US borrowing costs down

    the 30-year rate rallied after the August buyback announcement and returned to 5.27%, exactly where it began, so a fortnight of movement left borrowers paying what they paid before

  • Gold's flat week

    it crossed $4,400 in both directions all week and finished 0.6% lower, because the up days and the down days were never the same size in money

Where you've seen this

Wages

a 20% pay cut needs a 25% rise to put you back where you were

Shop prices

take 30% off and you have to add 43% to get back to the old ticket

An economy

one that shrinks 10% has to grow 11% to be the size it was

The catch

A plain holding really does recover if the price comes all the way back; the gap bites the people who buy and sell on the way and the funds that reset their bet every morning.

And the whole of it

Anyone with a pension or a savings account has been through one of these round trips without being told. The number on the statement went down and came back up, and the two moves were never the same size.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

OPEC+ met on Sunday and added no oil for October, because its 21 members cannot agree the 2027 reference figures their individual quotas are worked out from. So this week the price of oil is set by which ships dare to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and not by any decision the producers took.

Why it works on us — A weekly percentage does most of the work in this story: 'up almost 10% in a week' reads as one dramatic event, while the same move spread over two months would barely be reported at all.

Who gains

  • Oil producers outside the Gulf — Brent near $96.80 pays every producer the same higher price, and barrels shipped from outside the Gulf carry none of the Strait of Hormuz risk. [1][2]
  • OPEC+ as a group — Its members already pump well below the targets they hold, so agreeing no increase costs the group no actual barrels. [3]
  • China Life, China Taiping and the other state insurers — The finance ministry is putting $54 billion back into capital they ran down partly by being directed to support China's stock market. [12]
  • Banco BPI — A nine-year attempt to get out of Angola ends with at least $452 million and about 9 million euros added to its accounting equity. [22]
  • Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo — They keep the tariff money the US government has refunded to them while arguing in court that the customers who paid the higher shelf price are owed nothing. [23]

Who pays

  • Anyone buying diesel in the United States — The average price hit $5.90 a gallon on Saturday, an all-time high, and diesel is the fuel under freight, farming and construction. [6]
  • Small investors in South Korea — The leveraged fund tracking SK Hynix is worth a third of what it started at since late May, and the Samsung one half. [11]
  • The French government — It now borrows for ten years at 4.2%, the highest since 2008, with debt approaching 120% of the size of its economy. [26]
  • Every government and company borrowing this autumn — More than $8.4 trillion of US government debt rolls over before the end of the year, and September could be a record month for company bond sales, all competing for the same lenders. [13]
  • People living near new American data centres — Land bought for data centres reached about $6 billion in the first half of 2026, up 79%, and neighbours who did not sell now compete with the sites for water, power and road space. [28]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    How much oil actually moved in price this week.

    One Reuters report on Monday morning put Brent at $96.45, up 0.2%, having climbed almost 10% last week. Another Reuters report the same morning put it at $96.80, up 0.54%, with Brent up 7.8% and US crude up nearly 10%. A third Reuters piece also says 7.8%. [4][1][5]

  • 02

    Whether the US central bank raises rates on 16 September.

    Figures quoted the same morning ranged from a coin toss near 50%, cited by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, to 57%, 58% and about 60% elsewhere. Nobody can check which pricing is right until Friday's inflation figure lands. [9][8][4][17]

  • 03

    What OPEC+ will set as its 2027 baselines.

    The group says members must first review their production capacity and agree new baselines before any remaining cuts are unwound, and those talks are only expected later this year. No draft figures have been published. [3]

  • 04

    Where Iran's restricted zone will actually be drawn.

    Mohsen Rezaei said it would be announced within days and would sit outside the strait, with ships entering it possibly facing sanctions. No boundary, no rule and no start date has been given. [1][2]

  • 05

    How much of Japan's $79.6bn reserve fall was selling American government bonds.

    Its finance ministry gave the total and said foreign securities led the decline, without saying how much was sold or when. [7]

  • 06

    Whether the Angolan bank sale happens at all.

    Unitel, which owns most of Banco de Fomento Angola, holds a contractual right to buy the shares before anyone else, and Angola's central bank and market regulator have not cleared the deal. [22]

  • 07

    Whether anyone who bought a games console gets tariff money back.

    Sony has asked a court to dismiss the class action, and no court has ruled on whether a refund paid to a company is owed on to its customers. [23]

  • 08

    How much gold China's central bank really holds.

    Estimates built from customs data, refinery exports and physical demand put official buying since January 2024 at 161.6 tonnes, against 130.9 tonnes reported by the bank itself. [21]

  • 09

    Whether Marine Le Pen wins France's presidency.

    Goldman Sachs economists put her chance at 68% while betting markets put it near 30%, from the same polls. [26]

04 Hope carry this

Walmart and Costco have said they will lower prices for shoppers who were squeezed by tariff-driven price rises, after the US Supreme Court ruled those tariffs illegal and the US government began refunding the companies that paid them.

Also true today

  • Microsoft will start publishing Azure's revenue as its own figure. The cloud business has been reported inside a larger unit since 2015, and from now on anyone can read it on a line of its own.
  • Japan can now raise dollars from a US central bank facility built in 2020, so it can buy its own currency without selling American government bonds. The two countries acted together in the currency market this summer for the first time since 2011.

Across the beats