Food & Farming · Monday, 21 September 2026
China has bought more than half the soybeans it promised. The rest of America's farm sales wait on one last 10% tax.
China's state traders have booked about 13 million tonnes of American soybeans this season, against a pledge of 25 million a year. The bigger prize, $17 billion of corn, sorghum and other farm goods, needs a 10% tax dropped, and the two presidents meet on 24 September.
25m tonnes
of American soybeans China is said to have agreed to buy every year to 2028
the US government says the deal was struck at last year's summit in South Korea, and China's government has never confirmed it
13m tonnes
actually bought so far this season
state traders booked at least 1 million tonnes of it in a single week
$17bn
of other American farm goods China is said to have agreed to buy on top
US officials say reaching it probably needs a 10% tax waived first
$29bn
of American farm goods sold to China in 2024
soybeans are the largest single item in that trade
The lead story — what happened
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China's state-owned traders have bought about 13 million tonnes of American soybeans this season.
[2] -
That is more than half of the 25 million tonnes a year the US government says China agreed to buy through 2028.
[2] [1] -
At least 1 million tonnes of it was booked in a single week, just as the American harvest began.
[2] -
China's government has never publicly accepted that those purchase agreements exist. It is buying anyway.
[1] -
A second promise has not been met: $17 billion of other American farm goods, agreed when Trump visited China in May.
[1] -
To reach it, China would probably have to drop the last 10% tax it still charges on American farm imports.
[1] -
Sorghum and corn are the crops named as candidates, because they were the biggest American farm sales to China after soybeans.
[1] -
Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, said on 3 September there could be announcements to encourage American farm sales to China.
[1] -
The two governments are discussing cutting taxes on about $30 billion of trade in both directions, covering farm goods and energy.
[3] -
American farm exports to China were worth $29 billion in 2024, soybeans first among them.
[1] -
Farm goods are among the least touchy parts of the relationship, which is why they are the likely place for a deal.
[1] [5] -
Trump hosts Xi Jinping in Washington on 24 September, their second meeting this year.
[4]
13 of 25
million tonnes of American soybeans
Who is involved
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Donald Trump
the US president; he hosts China's leader in Washington on 24 September
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Xi Jinping
China's leader; his government has never publicly confirmed the farm purchase deals it is meeting
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Jamieson Greer
the US trade representative, who negotiates trade deals for the US government; he said on 3 September there could be announcements on farm sales
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China's state-owned grain traders
the companies that actually do the buying; they booked at least 1 million tonnes of American soybeans in one week
How it unfolded
-
Feb 2025 the US taxes Chinese goods over fentanyl; China taxes US coal, gas, oil and cars
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Mar 2025 China puts taxes of 10-15% on American farm goods, covering $21 billion of sales
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Oct 2025 Trump and Xi agree a truce in South Korea; China restarts soybean buying
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May 2026 Trump visits China; it agrees to buy Boeing jets and American farm products
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Last week China's traders book at least 1 million tonnes of American soybeans
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24 Sept Trump hosts Xi in Washington
Where this points
Watch whether China's last 10% tax on American farm goods is waived at the meeting on 24 September: that, and not the soybean total, is what would move corn and sorghum.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
China and the United States are discussing cuts to the taxes each puts on the other's farm goods and energy, covering about $30 billion of trade.
The World Food Programme has received $206 million for Sudan so far this year, against $645 million for the whole of last year.
Japanese growers used to ship strawberries from December to June and now struggle to sell past April.
Chile's energy ministry has drafted a plan to mix 10% crop alcohol into its petrol, to cut about $107 million a year off its fuel bill.
Cattle sold at $219.06 per hundred pounds in the first week of September, about $44 below May's record.
The rest of the day
20 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
Brazil's beef, shut out of China, heads to America
China's low-tax allowance for Brazilian beef filled early this year, and a 5% tax then applied to everything after it.
[6] Brazil's beef sales to China fell nearly 90% in August against a year earlier, and China normally takes about half of all the beef Brazil sells abroad.[6] On 26 August the US government widened its own low-tax window: 300,000 tonnes of beef trimmings may enter in three monthly batches from 1 September to 30 November, instead of paying the 26.4% rate charged above the limit.[6] Brazil is the main country it affects.[6] Why it matters — Trimmings are the lean beef that becomes ground beef for canteens and fast-food kitchens, so this reaches the price of a burger rather than a steak.
[6] The order also says those trimmings must be sold 25% below what the market is charging.[6] -
03
Argentina's cheap-beef window is nearly used up
The US government raised Argentina's low-tax beef allowance by 80,000 tonnes for 2026, handed out in four batches through the year.
[6] Three have been used up, the third by 28 August, and the fourth and last opens on 1 October.[6] American imports of Argentine beef reached 49 million pounds in July, the largest month on record from that country and up nearly 500% on a year earlier.[6] US beef imports as a whole are forecast to run 16% above last year.[6] Why it matters — Argentine shipments jumped as each batch opened, which is how an allowance of this kind shows up in the trade figures: in bursts rather than a steady flow.
[6] -
04
US cattle prices keep sliding from May's record
Cattle sold in America's five main marketing regions for $219.06 per hundred pounds in the first week of September, about $44 below the record set in mid-May.
[6] Young animals sold on to be fattened averaged $346.69 per hundred pounds in August at the Oklahoma City stockyards, and by 31 August were 14% below their early-May peak.[6] The US agriculture department cut its forecast for next year's beef production again, to 24.835 billion pounds, and lowered its price forecasts for this year and next.[6] Why it matters — The department says tight cattle supplies and less slaughterhouse capacity, not the new import allowance, are still what mainly sets what a rancher is paid.
[6] Feedlots are holding animals longer: 31% of cattle on feed in August had been there more than 150 days, the second-highest share on record.[6] -
05
America's egg prices are down by three fifths
A dozen large eggs sold wholesale in New York for an average of $1.11 in August, $1.65 cheaper than in August 2025.
[6] Prices fell through the month, from $1.48 to $0.86 a dozen, and the last price quoted before September's forecasts was $0.83.[6] The reason is birds. On 1 August the United States had 315 million hens laying table eggs, the biggest flock since December 2024 and 4.8% more than a year before.[6] Young hens waiting to start laying are 6.4% up on last year.[6] Aug 2025$2.76Aug 2026$1.11Wholesale price of a dozen large eggs in New York. The 2025 figure is this August's price plus the $1.65 fall the department reported. Why it matters — The agriculture department raised its forecast for how many eggs America will lay this year to 7.851 billion dozen, 4.7% more than 2025.
[6] Cattle, hog and chicken prices were all revised down in the same report, so eggs are not alone.[6] -
06
Pork demand sags and ham prices drop a third
Americans bought less pork in August, and a whole pig carcass at wholesale fell to $98.83 per hundred pounds, more than 14% below August 2025.
[6] Hams weighing 23 to 27 pounds, the cut Mexican buyers favour, were more than 31% cheaper than the same week a year earlier, and pork bellies, which become bacon, were almost 17% cheaper.[6] Those two cuts make up about 41% of what a carcass is worth.[6] Farmers were paid $69.43 per hundred pounds for their pigs, almost 11% less than a year ago.[6] Hams31%Bellies17%Whole carcass14%How much cheaper these were at wholesale than the same week a year earlier. Why it matters — The agriculture department links the weaker demand to people eating out less and driving less on holiday because petrol is dear.
[6] Processors are squeezed too: their gross margin per pig fell from $33.69 to $25.50.[6] -
07
More milk than expected, and cheaper butter
The US agriculture department raised its forecast for how much milk American farms will produce this year to 237.2 billion pounds, and next year's to 238.6 billion.
[6] There are more cows than it expected and each is giving more: it now sees 9.71 million dairy cows in 2027, averaging 24,570 pounds of milk each.[6] With more milk about, it cut its 2026 butter price forecast to $1.595 a pound and its cheddar forecast to $1.570.[6] The price farmers get for all milk is forecast at $19.90 per hundred pounds.[6] Why it matters — Dairy farmers are being paid about what last month's forecast said, while shops get cheaper butter and cheese.
[6] The department also raised its forecast for how much dairy Americans will eat this year and next.[6] -
08
The Philippines will buy more chicken, and Brazil is selling it
American agricultural staff in Manila forecast that the Philippines will produce 5.8% more chicken meat in 2027 and eat 8.6% more, and will import more to cover the gap.
[14] They expect Brazil to take a bigger share of those imports because its chicken is cheaper.[14] Chicken keeps its place partly because the country's pig farms have still not recovered from African swine fever, a disease that emptied herds across Asia.[14] In the same week the department cut its forecast for American chicken exports in 2027 to 6.5 billion pounds, blaming Brazilian competition.[6] Why it matters — American chicken farmers are being told they will sell less abroad next year, and the Philippines is one of the markets where it is happening.
[6] [14] -
09
WFP halves rations in Sudan as its money halves
The World Food Programme has $206 million for Sudan this year, against $645 million for all of last year, its deputy head Carl Skau said.
[8] Almost 20 million Sudanese face hunger after two and a half years of war between the army and a paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces.[8] Up to 14 million have been driven from their homes.[8] The agency now works only with the 5 million most in need, and reaches about 4 million.[8] In Tawila in North Darfur, where about a million people shelter, the monthly ration covers two weeks.[8] 2025, full year$645m2026 so far$206mMoney the World Food Programme received for Sudan. Nearly three quarters of 2026 had passed when the second figure was given. Why it matters — Skau said he does not know how people there survive the other two weeks.
[8] The International Organization for Migration says its shelter and sanitation supplies for Sudan run out at the end of September, and that the aid system there is funded only to December.[8] -
10
Seeds and goats for 13,000 Haitian households
The UN's food agency has finished the first round of an emergency farming programme in Haiti, giving seed and tools to 13,000 households, about 65,000 people, across ten municipalities.
[9] More than $16 million from a regional humanitarian fund pays for it, and it is meant to reach 326,000 people with 205 tonnes of seed and over 160,000 small animals.[9] The next phase, handing out the animals, targets 29,394 more households.[9] More than half of Haiti's people do not have reliable access to food, on the international scale used to rank food crises.[9] Why it matters — A household given seed eats from its own plot within one season and needs less help the next time, which is why the agency treats emergency planting as a way to save lives.
[9] -
11
Forests feed billions and go uncounted
More than 5 billion people rely to some extent on forests and trees for their living, according to a report the UN's food agency published on 15 September.
[10] More than 50,000 wild species are used for food, medicine or other purposes.[10] The report says this food barely appears in national statistics or farm policy, so it is invisible when governments plan.[10] The world lost an average of 10.9 million hectares of forest a year over the past decade.[10] About 645 million people went chronically hungry in 2025.[10] Why it matters — A study in Africa cited in the report found children in areas with more tree cover eat a more varied diet.
[10] The agency is asking governments to write forests into their food plans.[10] -
12
The UN scores itself on hunger and poverty
Ten years ago the world's governments set 17 development goals for 2030, among them no poverty, zero hunger, clean water and gender equality, broken into 169 separate targets.
[11] The UN's latest assessment finds that 15% of the targets with enough data behind them are on track.[11] Another 21% are making moderate progress and 32% marginal progress.[11] Seventeen per cent have not moved at all, and 15% have fallen below where they stood in 2015.[11] Why it matters — Zero hunger is one of the 17 and the deadline is four years away.
[11] The count is the UN measuring itself, and it published the shortfall.[11] -
13
US inspectors to swab for listeria nationwide
America's meat inspection agency will extend listeria swabbing to all nine of its districts, after piloting it in Alameda, Chicago and Raleigh this year.
[7] Inspectors will take four extra swabs, two from surfaces that touch food and two from surfaces that do not, each time they sample ready-to-eat products such as sliced meats.[7] The change came out of a review of listeriosis outbreaks in 2024 traced to products the agency regulates.[7] The agency says the swabs are meant to find where the bacterium is living on and around the processing line.[7] Why it matters — Testing the finished meat tells inspectors a batch is contaminated.
[7] Testing the machinery tells them where it came from, which is what a factory has to fix.[7] -
14
New Mexico becomes the 31st state to inspect its own meat
New Mexico joined the American state meat and poultry inspection scheme in September, after the federal agency judged its programme at least equal to the national one.
[7] Thirty-one states now inspect their own plants, and 11 of those may also send state-inspected meat across state lines.[7] The federal agency announced a $50 million fund on 16 September to help more states start or expand such programmes.[7] It has already spent $75 million and then $20 million in the past two years cutting overtime and holiday inspection fees for small plants.[7] Why it matters — The agency says high start-up costs have kept states out of the scheme, and that more state programmes give ranchers somewhere closer to have animals processed.
[7] -
15
Guernsey asks for a share of Britain's tuna quota
Guernsey is asking for part of the UK's bluefin tuna quota so anglers there can fish for them, the BBC reported.
[12] Five commercial licences were granted in Jersey this year, part of trials in Wales, Jersey and Scotland that use 26 tonnes of the UK's 2026 allowance.[12] Bluefin catches are rationed by ICCAT, the body that divides the Atlantic bluefin catch between countries.[12] Britain has been a member since 2020 and Guernsey sits outside that membership, so it would have to be extended and the island's laws changed first.[12] Why it matters — Nicky Harris, a marine biologist on the island, said Guernsey is badly under-resourced for monitoring and enforcement, and that a tuna fishery is not a fix for waters that are already declining.
[12] -
16
US Supreme Court weighs a lobsterman's GPS case
America's Supreme Court decides on 28 September whether to hear a challenge by Frank Thompson, a Maine lobster fisherman, to a rule that he fit a GPS tracker to his boat to keep his licence.
[13] Maine required the trackers in 2023 on all federally permitted lobster boats, to comply with a US data-collection rule.[13] Thompson argues the tracking is an unreasonable search; a federal appeals court rejected that last year.[13] Officials say the data matters because the lobster population in New England appears to be declining.[13] Why it matters — Most American commercial fishing is watched by observers or electronic devices, so a ruling for Thompson would reach well past lobster.
[13] Conservation groups have opposed cutting back monitoring at sea.[13] -
17
Starbucks may sell control of its 1,883 Japanese shops
Starbucks is considering selling a majority stake in its Japanese business, two people with knowledge of the talks told Reuters, in a deal that could value it at about $3 billion.
[15] Japan is the chain's biggest overseas market that it runs itself rather than through a franchise, with 1,883 shops, nearly 9% of its worldwide total as of September 2025.[15] A formal sale process could begin in the last three months of the year.[15] Why it matters — Starbucks buys coffee beans at one end of the chain and sells cups at the other.
[15] This would hand the selling end, in one of its largest markets, to somebody else.[15] -
18
Chile looks at mixing crop alcohol into petrol
Chile's energy ministry has drafted a plan to move to E10 petrol, meaning 10% ethanol, the alcohol made from crops such as sugarcane and corn.
[18] Officials calculate it would cut government fuel supply costs by about $107 million a year, according to documents seen by Reuters.[18] Chile imported 181,000 barrels of crude oil a day in 2025, and Brent crude traded above $105 a barrel on Wednesday against about $73 before the US-Israeli war on Iran.[18] Chile buys most of its ethanol from Argentina and Bolivia.[18] Why it matters — A country with no oil of its own would be swapping one import for another, and the second one is grown on farmland.
[18] -
19
A strawberry bred in two years instead of ten
Culta, a Japanese company founded in 2017, says it has cut the time needed to breed a new strawberry variety from about ten years to two.
[16] It reads plants' genetics and physical traits together to choose which to cross, and runs three breeding cycles a year indoors instead of one outdoors.[16] Its first variety, SAKURA DROPS, is built to survive hot early springs: Japanese growers used to ship strawberries from December to June and now struggle to sell past April.[16] Thirty-six contract growers grow its varieties under licence, and Culta buys the whole crop back.[16] Why it matters — Breeding is the slowest step in adapting a crop to hotter weather, and Japan's strawberry season has already lost about two months at the end.
[16] -
20
An Italian farm-data firm buys into Brazil's sugarcane
xFarm, an Italian farm-management software company, has bought Sibium Analytics, a Brazilian firm whose tools map sugarcane fields from satellites and produce the paperwork mills need for sustainability certificates.
[17] The deal takes xFarm onto 24 million hectares across more than 600,000 farms, and is its sixth acquisition and its second Brazilian one in a year.[17] Terms were not disclosed.[17] Brazil grows around half the world's sugarcane and is the largest producer of ethanol made from it, which also supplies roughly 9% of the country's electricity.[17] Why it matters — The same cane becomes either sugar or fuel, and these are the tools the mills use to run both sides of that choice.
[17] -
21
Five dollars a day at the Chennai fish dock
About 30,000 people work around the fish auction at Kasimedu harbour in Chennai, in southern India, which starts at 4am, NPR reported on 20 September.
[20] Pavadairayan, who is 60, is one of the harbour's basket men: he carries 35-pound baskets of fish a third of a mile from the boats to the auction house, 40 or 50 times between 2am and 7am.[20] He earns about $5 a day.[20] If supervisors think fish have gone missing they can dock his pay by several thousand rupees, and he says basket men have few rights.[20] Why it matters — This is the step between a boat and a market price, and the men doing it are paid about $5 for a five-hour shift.
[20]
Why a country lets a set number of tonnes in cheaply, and taxes the rest
Most food trade rules name an amount, not a price, so the cheap rate stops the moment that amount is filled.
The twist
Most of these rules carry two tax rates, not one, and which one a shipment pays depends on how much has already arrived that year.
The picture
3 of 4
batches of Argentina's extra beef quota
How it works
- A government sets an amount that may come in at a low tax
- Shipments fill that amount, first come first served
- The moment it is full, the tax jumps to the full rate
- Sellers stop shipping there and look for another buyer
- Another country widens its own low-tax amount, and the goods go there
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
-
Brazil's beef, shut out of China, heads to America
China's low-tax amount for Brazilian beef filled early in the year, the tax jumped to 5%, and Brazil's August sales there fell nearly 90%
-
China's soybean promise to the United States
the promise is counted in tonnes, 25 million a year, while the rest of the farm trade waits behind a tax written as 10%
-
Guernsey asks for a share of Britain's tuna quota
the catch is an amount too: 26 tonnes of Britain's 2026 allowance went to trials, and Guernsey must be handed part of it before anyone there can fish
Where you've seen this
Cheap flight seats
an airline releases a set number at the low fare, and the price jumps once they are gone
A phone plan
a fixed number of gigabytes is included, and every one after that costs far more
School places
a school has a set number, so a late family pays for somewhere else however good their case
The catch
An amount only bites when sellers actually want to ship more than it allows, and plenty of these allowances sit half empty all year.
And the whole of it
Somebody wrote those numbers down, usually years before, in rooms the farmers were not in. An Argentine rancher, a Brazilian meat packer and an American shopper buying mince are all living with the same figure, and none of them chose it or can see the other two.
What is really going on
China is on track to meet the soybean promise the US government says it made, a promise China's own government has never publicly accepted.
Why it works on us — Both governments have a meeting on 24 September, so every unfinished piece of a slow trade argument gets reported as something that might be settled on the day.
Who gains
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American soybean farmers
— China's state traders booked at least 1 million tonnes in a single week, right at the start of the American harvest.
[2] -
US meat plants that grind beef
— 300,000 tonnes of imported trimmings can enter at the low tax rate until 30 November, and the order says they must be sold 25% below what the market is charging.
[6] -
Beef exporters in Argentina
— Their country's low-tax allowance was raised by 80,000 tonnes this year, and July shipments to the United States hit 49 million pounds, the largest month on record.
[6] -
American shoppers buying eggs
— Wholesale eggs in New York averaged $1.11 a dozen in August, $1.65 less than a year earlier, as the laying flock rebuilt to 315 million hens.
[6] -
Brazil's chicken exporters
— The US agriculture department cut its own 2027 chicken export forecast and named Brazilian competition, and its staff in Manila expect Brazil to take a bigger share of Philippine imports.
[6] [14]
Who pays
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American cattle ranchers
— Cattle sold at $219.06 per hundred pounds in the first week of September, about $44 below May's record.
[6] -
American pig farmers
— Hogs sold at $69.43 per hundred pounds in August, almost 11% below a year earlier, and hams were more than 31% cheaper.
[6] -
Brazil's beef exporters
— Sales to China, about half their export market, fell nearly 90% in August once China's low-tax allowance filled and a 5% tax applied.
[6] -
People sheltering in Tawila in North Darfur
— About a million people there get one monthly ration that covers two weeks.
[8] -
American farmers who sell corn and sorghum to China
— Those crops still face China's 10% tax, and US officials say the extra $17 billion of purchases probably needs it waived first.
[1]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
Whether China will drop the last 10% tax on American farm goods.
The US trade representative said on 3 September there could be announcements to encourage farm sales, and neither government has said what they are.
[1] -
02
What China actually agreed to buy.
The US government says the deals cover 25 million tonnes of soybeans a year to 2028 and $17 billion of other farm goods. China's government has never confirmed either one.
[1] -
03
How much Brazilian beef will really reach the United States under the widened allowance.
The US agriculture department says it is unclear whether Brazil can ship the full 100,000 tonnes a month the window allows.
[6] -
04
Why only 104 head of cattle crossed from Mexico into the United States in one week.
The agriculture department reports an equipment problem at the Douglas crossing in Arizona and gives no further detail.
[6] -
05
How people in Tawila in Darfur eat for the two weeks their ration does not cover.
The World Food Programme's deputy head, Carl Skau, said it is not clear to him how they are surviving.
[8] -
06
Whether the goal of zero hunger by 2030 can still be met.
The UN's latest count says 15% of the targets with enough data are on track and another 15% have fallen below where they stood in 2015, without separating hunger out of that figure.
[11] -
07
Whether Guernsey will get any of Britain's bluefin tuna quota.
The island must first be brought inside Britain's membership of the tuna commission and change its own laws, and no date has been set for either.
[12] -
08
Whether the US Supreme Court will hear the lobsterman's case at all.
The judges consider it on 28 September and do not have to give a reason for refusing.
[13]
A dozen wholesale eggs in New York cost $1.11 in August, $1.65 less than in August 2025. The American laying flock is back to 315 million hens, the biggest it has been since December 2024.
Also true today
- The UN's food agency has handed seed and tools to 13,000 households in ten Haitian municipalities, about 65,000 people. A second round will give small livestock to 29,394 more households.
- Five fishermen in Jersey now hold licences to catch bluefin tuna in the English Channel, and 26 tonnes of Britain's 2026 allowance has gone to trials in Wales, Jersey and Scotland. Anglers in Guernsey are asking for a share.
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