Day Lila

Food & Farming · Saturday, 19 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

India's rice harvest faces its biggest fall since 2009 as a record El Nino dries the monsoon

Food & Farming 21 sources

India's rice exporters expect about 10 million tonnes less rice this year after the monsoon brought 15% less rain than normal, while the government sits on a record 59.6 million tonnes in store.

10m tonnes

less rice India may harvest this year, its biggest fall since 2009/10

about 6.5% below last year's record crop of 154 million tonnes [1]

15%

less monsoon rain than normal across India since 1 June

in some rice-growing states the shortfall is as high as 42% [1]

59.6m tonnes

of rice in India's government stores on 1 September, a record

the target for 1 October is 10.3 million tonnes [1]

75%

chance that this El Nino becomes the strongest since 1950

the US forecast is for October to December [3]

The lead story — what happened

  • India's rice harvest could fall by about 10 million tonnes this year, says B.V. Krishna Rao, president of India's Rice Exporters Association. [1]
  • That would be nearly 6.5% below last year's record of 154 million tonnes. [1] It would be the biggest drop since 2009/10, when an El Nino drought also cut the crop. [1]
  • The cause is missing rain. India's monsoon, the rainy season that began on 1 June, has brought 15% less rain than normal, and up to 42% less in some rice states. [1]
  • In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, two of India's biggest rice-growing states, August rain was down 46% and 63%. [2] Rob Weston of CropGPT, a farm data company, says that could cut their crops by over 20%. [2]
  • Rice sown in the summer covered 42.68 million hectares by 11 September, nearly 4% less than a year earlier. [1] The summer crop makes up more than 80% of India's rice. [1]
  • The dry weather comes from El Nino, a warming of the Pacific Ocean that shifts where rain falls around the world. [2] US forecasters give a 75% chance that this one becomes the strongest since at least 1950. [3]
  • India sells more rice abroad than Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan put together. [2] Rice is the main food for about half the people on Earth. [2]
  • Rice prices inside India have started to rise. [1] India's export prices are now at their highest in more than a year. [1]
  • India's government holds a record 59.6 million tonnes of rice in store, against a target of 10.3 million. [1] A dealer at a global trading house says that lets India keep exporting without limits. [1]
  • Sugar is under the same dry, hot weather. [2] Beet crops are down 22% in Germany and 15% in France, and cane is down 7% in India and 7.5% in Thailand, CropGPT says. [2]
  • Raw sugar prices had their strongest month since October 2010 in August. [2] India had already stopped almost all sugar exports in May because of drought. [2]
  • Not every rice grower loses. [2] El Nino usually brings wetter weather to the southern US, where Arkansas grows about 40% of the country's rice. [2]
How much less rain than normal fell: across India for the whole season so far, and in August alone in two big rice states.

Who is involved

  • B.V. Krishna Rao

    president of India's Rice Exporters Association, the group of firms that ship Indian rice abroad; he put the fall at about 10 million tonnes

  • India's government

    the country's national government; it runs the world's biggest rice export trade and holds a record 59.6 million tonnes of rice in store

  • Rob Weston

    head of CropGPT, a farm data company; he says rain in two big rice states fell by half or more in August

  • Eszter Somogyi

    a director at USA Rice, which speaks for US rice growers; she says El Nino changes the odds of rain, not the certainty

How it unfolded

  1. 2009/10 an El Nino drought causes India's last big fall in rice output [1]
  2. May 2026 India stops almost all sugar exports because of drought [2]
  3. 1 June India's monsoon season begins; it brings 15% less rain than normal [1]
  4. August rain in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana is down 46% and 63% [2]
  5. 11 September summer rice area stands nearly 4% below last year [1]
  6. October to December El Nino is expected to peak, with a 75% chance of a record event [3]

Where this points

The next test is whether India keeps rice exports open while prices rise at home; a record stock says it can, and the winter-sown crop depends on reservoirs that are already low. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Rain not arriving High

India's monsoon has brought 15% less rain than normal. [1] In Kenya, 3.3 million people face acute food shortage after two failed or weak rainy seasons. [13] Australia's weather bureau expects a drier spring in the south-east because of El Nino. [4]

Heat on the harvest High

The United States had its hottest summer on record. [3] Champagne in France picked its earliest grapes ever, in early August. [19] Beet sugar crops are down 22% in Germany. [2]

Gene-edited crops reaching fields Building

An Indian crop institute won a licence to use the main gene-editing tool on small farmers' crops. [9] Florida growers are planting gene-edited orange rootstock against a disease with no cure. [11] Scientists in California got $18 million to field-test deep-rooted soybeans. [12]

Public money for farmers Steady

Swiss lawmakers passed a trade deal only after adding 517 million Swiss francs for farmers. [8] The US offered states up to $50 million to run their own meat inspection. [15] The US also gave out over $26 million to help farmers sell finished products. [17]

Border and visa rules Building

Australia will make backpackers, who hold one in seven farm jobs, wait three months for a visa. [5] Texas ranchers sued to stop a border wall that would take their land. [20]

The rest of the day

17 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    UN food agency gets a new American chief

    The United Nations named Luke Lindberg, 37, to run the World Food Programme, the UN agency that feeds people in wars and disasters. [6] He is now the US agriculture department's under secretary for trade. [6] He is also the son-in-law of John Thune, the leader of the US Senate. [6] He replaces Cindy McCain, who stepped down in February after a mild stroke. [6] The agency says up to 266 million people face acute hunger, but it aims to help only 110 million this year because of funding cuts. [6]

    How many people the World Food Programme says face acute hunger, and how many it plans to help this year. The second bar is less than half the first.

    Why it matters — The United States has long been the agency's biggest donor, and an American has run it since the early 1990s. [6] Lindberg takes over an agency that already plans to reach fewer than half of the people it says are in acute hunger. [6]

  2. 03

    Swiss parliament passes a South American trade deal

    Switzerland's lower house of parliament approved a trade deal with Mercosur, the South American trade group of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, on 16 September. [8] The same house had voted it down in June. [8] It changed its vote after lawmakers added 517 million Swiss francs, about $631 million, of help for Swiss farmers over six years. [8] The upper house had passed the same package two days earlier, by 35 votes to 7. [7]

    Why it matters — Farming is a sensitive subject in Switzerland, and the June no came from both the left and the right. [7] The deal is likely to go to a public vote under Switzerland's system of direct democracy. [8]

  3. 04

    Indian crop institute wins gene-editing licence

    ICRISAT, an international crop research institute in Hyderabad, India, has won a licence to use CRISPR-Cas9, the most widely used gene-editing tool. [9] The patents on it are held jointly by Corteva, a US seed company, and the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. [9] ICRISAT plans hardier, higher-yielding chickpea, pigeon pea, groundnut and millet, crops of dry regions. [9] Because the licence is not exclusive, it can pass edited seed to small farmers through partners. [9] Edited seed must still pass India's blind field trials before release. [9]

    Why it matters — Patents had long blocked the use of the tool in Indian farming, Nature India reports. [9] Drought and heat tolerance are shaped by many genes, so they are much harder to edit than resistance to one disease. [9]

  4. 05

    Florida plants gene-edited orange trees

    Citrus growers in Florida are planting trees on a gene-edited rootstock, the root part that a fruiting tree is grafted onto. [11] It was edited to resist citrus greening, a bacterial disease spread by a tiny insect that arrived in Florida in 2005 and has no cure. [11] Growers shipped about 300 million boxes of fruit a season in the late 1990s, and a little over 15 million this season. [11] The rootstock, CarriCea T1 from Soilcea, a Tampa company, was approved by the US Environmental Protection Agency earlier this year. [11]

    Boxes of fruit Florida's growers shipped in one season, then and now. This season's bar is a little over 15 million.

    Why it matters — Test trees planted last summer look taller and greener than their neighbours, but fruit takes years to show whether the fix works. [11] Ron English's family closed its citrus business in 2015 after greening killed its groves. [11]

  5. 06

    Soybeans bred to root deeper

    Scientists at the Salk Institute in California have bred soybean plants whose roots grow straight down instead of out to the side. [12] They found 347 genes linked to root growth and carbon storage, then edited plants to root deeper. [12] An $18 million grant from the Bezos Earth Fund, a climate charity, will pay for field trials. [12] From lab results, they estimate a hectare of these soybeans could store about one extra tonne of carbon dioxide a year. [12]

    Why it matters — Deeper roots could reach water below dry topsoil in a drought. [12] The team still has to show the plants keep their yields on real farms, and how long the carbon stays underground. [12]

  6. 07

    Scientist says Europe's gene-editing rules fall short

    In June the European Union ended its strict limits on growing gene-edited crops. [10] Until then every gene-edited plant was treated like a GMO, a crop that can carry DNA from another species. [10] The new rules split edited crops into two groups, and only the first is treated like a plant bred the ordinary way. [10] Writing in Nature this week, a plant geneticist argues flaws in the rules could limit their use. [10]

    Why it matters — A 2023 European Commission study put EU cereal farmers' possible yearly loss from the old limits at up to 2.7 billion euros by the early 2030s. [10] This is one scientist's argument, not a ruling, and the EU is still writing the detailed law. [10]

  7. 08

    Kenyan farmers know the advice but cannot pay for it

    About 3.3 million Kenyans face acute food shortage after two failed or weak rainy seasons, Nature Africa reports. [13] Kenya has had a climate-smart farming plan since 2016, backed by a $297 million World Bank project. [13] Yet few farmers use drought-tolerant seed and methods. [13] A study of 146 farmers in Makueni and Kajiado counties found poverty was the main barrier, ahead of a lack of training. [13]

    Why it matters — One farmer, Mary Ndunge, said the recommended seed is often missing from the shop, and when it is there she lacks the money. [13] The study found the agencies promoting the methods more often blamed a lack of education. [13]

  8. 09

    Australia's visa limits worry wheat growers

    Australia's government announced steps on 17 September to cut yearly immigration by tens of thousands of people. [5] They include a ballot limiting how many backpackers on working holiday visas can stay a second or third year. [5] Farm groups say processing these visas will now take three months instead of a few days. [5] The National Farmers' Federation says one in seven farm jobs is held by a backpacker. [5]

    Why it matters — Australia is the world's third-biggest wheat exporter. [5] Farm groups say a shortage of workers could put the next wheat harvest at risk. [5]

  9. 10

    Australia's crops look good, but a dry spring looms

    ABARES, Australia's farm forecaster, expects a winter crop of 61 million tonnes, the fourth-largest on record and 16% above the ten-year average. [4] Better rain than expected fell in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales. [4] Lentils could reach a record 2.3 million tonnes, while chickpeas could fall 52%. [4] The Bureau of Meteorology now expects a drier spring in the south-east because of El Nino. [4]

    Why it matters — Crops running weeks ahead of normal are exposed to late frost, and a dry end to the season would cut into that forecast. [4] High fertiliser costs have already pushed some farmers from wheat to barley, which needs less of it. [4]

  10. 11

    Rainmakers beaten when the rain fails

    In eastern Uganda, farmers who had paid rainmaker David Nabutsilili chased him after his rain flooded their gardens, and he broke his thigh bone. [14] Rainmakers are traditional spiritual leaders who perform rituals to ask for rain. [14] In South Sudan, at least two have been killed in the past two years. [14] In June, men in a dry south-eastern area buried a rainmaker named Albino Lobillia alive, witnesses told AP. [14]

    Why it matters — AP reports rainmakers are more and more often blamed as changing weather frustrates farmers. [14] Nabutsilili says he must flee his home when he fails to meet expectations. [14]

  11. 12

    US offers states money to inspect meat

    The US meat inspection agency announced a Stand-Up Program on 16 September, with up to $50 million to help states start or expand their own meat inspection. [15] Thirty-one states run such programmes, and New Mexico became the 31st this month. [15][16] A state-inspected plant can sell only inside its state unless the state joins a second scheme for shipping across state lines. [15] The move follows an executive order President Trump signed on 4 September. [15]

    Why it matters — The agency says start-up costs have kept states out, and more state programmes mean more places for ranchers to process animals close to home. [15] It says food safety standards do not change. [15]

  12. 13

    US grants $26 million to help farmers sell products

    The US agriculture department awarded over $26 million in Value Added Producer Grants on 18 September. [17] The grants help farmers turn what they grow into products they sell themselves, and pay for market research and marketing plans. [17] Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins tied the money to rebuilding the US cattle herd. [17]

    Why it matters — The department says selling a finished product lets a farmer cut out the middleman and keep more of the money. [17]

  13. 14

    US acts against 170 food-stamp shops in New York

    The US agriculture department said on 18 September it had acted against 170 shops across New York City's five boroughs after hundreds of undercover investigations. [18] The shops, mostly small grocers and convenience stores, take SNAP, the US food-stamp programme for low-income households. [18] The charges include swapping benefits for cash and selling alcohol or non-food goods with them. [18] Penalties run from temporary removal from the programme to a permanent ban. [18]

    Why it matters — The department called it part of a wider fight against fraud in what it describes as a $100 billion-a-year programme. [18]

  14. 15

    Champagne may be stronger this year

    The alcohol limit on champagne has been raised from 13% to 15%, for this year only, after record heatwaves in France. [19] Heat and drought gave the grapes more sugar, and yeast turns sugar into alcohol. [19] The first grapes were cut in early August, the earliest harvest ever recorded in Champagne. [19] The Comite Champagne, the industry body, says only a few wines should reach 13.1% or 13.2%. [19]

    Champagne's alcohol limit, raised for this year only after record heatwaves gave the grapes more sugar.

    Why it matters — The body says harvests this early could be normal in 10 to 15 years because of climate change. [19]

  15. 16

    Texas ranchers sue to stop a border wall

    Six landowners and the group Conserve Big Bend, acting for 230 more, sued the US Department of Homeland Security on 14 September. [20] They want to stop a border wall in the Big Bend region of west Texas that would take private land, including ranches. [20] The suit says the region fails the legal test for the waivers the wall relies on. [20] The Big Bend stretch had under 1.5% of arrests on the south-west border over five years. [20]

    Why it matters — Cattle rancher Yolanda Alvarado said families do not know what will happen to their homes and their ranches. [20] The waivers let the wall skip dozens of environmental and heritage laws. [20]

  16. 17

    Russian farmers plan less wheat

    Some Russian farmers plan to plant less winter wheat, Bloomberg reports. [21] Grain shipments from Black Sea ports have been choked since July, when Russia and Ukraine stepped up attacks on each other's ports, silos and ships. [21] Farmers in both countries are stuck with millions of tonnes of unsold grain, which has pushed prices down at home while their costs rose. [21]

    Why it matters — Russia is the world's top wheat shipper, so a smaller harvest there in 2027 would reach every country that buys its wheat. [21]

  17. 18

    The US had its hottest summer on record

    The United States had its hottest summer on record, beating a mark from the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s, the US weekly crop bulletin reported on 15 September. [3] June to August ran 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal across much of the West, the Plains and the Atlantic coast. [3] On 12 July, Miles City in Montana reached 115F. [3] It was also the driest US summer since 2020. [3]

    47 of 100

    47 in 100 rated poor or very poor

    Each dot is one part in a hundred of the US winter wheat crop. The filled dots were rated poor or very poor when the season ended.

    Why it matters — Winter wheat ended its season in early July with 47% of the crop rated poor or very poor. [3] El Nino also held off Atlantic hurricanes: there were none through August. [3]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a drought-proof seed can exist and still not reach the farm

A crop bred to survive drought still has to pass a patent, a rule, a seed supply and a price before a farmer in a dry year can plant it.

The twist

A seed that survives drought can exist in a lab and still be missing from the shop in a dry village. A patent, a rule, a seed supply and a price stand in between, and each one takes time or money.

The picture

  1. 1Greening reaches Florida0 years
  2. 2A family grove closes10 years
  3. 3Gene-edited fix approved21 years
Years after citrus greening reached Florida in 2005. One family's grove closed in 2015, and a gene-edited rootstock was approved only this year.

How it works

  1. Scientists make a crop that copes with drought or disease
  2. The tool they used is patented, so a breeder needs a licence
  3. A regulator decides what the crop counts as, and approves it
  4. Seed is grown in bulk and sent to shops near the farms
  5. The farmer has to afford it, and a tree has to grow to bear fruit
  6. So the drought or the disease can arrive years before the seed

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • ICRISAT's gene-editing licence

    The patent step: until the institute got a licence from Corteva and the Broad Institute, it could not hand edited seed to small farmers.

  • Europe's gene-editing rules

    The rule step: the EU now sorts edited crops into two groups, and only one group is treated like ordinary breeding.

  • Florida's gene-edited orange trees

    The waiting step: the disease arrived in 2005, the fix was approved this year, and the fruit that proves it is still years away.

  • Kenyan farmers and drought-tolerant seed

    The last step: the seed exists and farmers have heard of it, but it is not in the local shop, or they cannot pay for it.

Where you've seen this

New medicines

a drug can pass its trials and still take years to reach a village clinic, because patents, approvals and money come first

Water filters

a cheap filter that stops a disease exists, but a family must find one and buy it before it helps them

Internet cables

fast connections exist in cities long before anyone pays to lay the cable down a country road

The catch

The steps are not fixed. A crop bred the ordinary way needs no gene-editing licence, and seed handed out free removes the price step, so the gap shrinks when someone pays to close it.

And the whole of it

The rice farmer in Telangana waiting for rain, the scientist in Hyderabad with a new licence, the EU lawmakers writing the rules and the family buying rice are all on the same line from lab to field. Each of them sees only the step in front of them.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

India's monsoon has brought 15% less rain than normal during a strong El Nino. [1][2] India's rice exporters now expect the biggest fall in the rice harvest since 2009/10. [1] India's government holds a record 59.6 million tonnes of rice in store, so traders expect it to keep selling rice abroad even as prices rise at home. [1]

Who gains

  • Indian farmers growing premium rice — They will get higher prices in the open market as supply falls, the exporters' head says. [1]
  • US rice growers in Arkansas and Louisiana — El Nino usually brings them wetter winters and springs, which helps planting while India's crop shrinks. [2]
  • Swiss farmers — Lawmakers added 517 million Swiss francs of aid over six years to win their votes for the Mercosur deal. [8]
  • ICRISAT and its partner seed groups — The non-exclusive licence lets them develop and hand out gene-edited seed to small farmers. [9]
  • Small meat processors in US states — A $50 million programme will help states set up inspection, so more plants can legally sell meat. [15]
  • Soilcea, the Tampa company behind CarriCea T1 — Its gene-edited rootstock is approved and going into Florida groves. [11]

Who pays

  • Rice farmers in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana — August rain was down 46% and 63%, which CropGPT says could cut their crops by over 20%. [2]
  • Kenyan smallholders in dry counties — Two failed rainy seasons left 3.3 million Kenyans short of food, and poverty keeps many from buying drought-tolerant seed. [13]
  • Australian farms that rely on backpackers — Visa processing is going from a few days to three months just before the wheat harvest. [5]
  • Rainmakers in Uganda and South Sudan — Farmers beat them when the rain fails, and at least two have been killed in South Sudan in two years. [14]
  • Ranch families in Texas's Big Bend region — A border wall planned under legal waivers would take private land, and they have gone to court to stop it. [20]
  • Russian and Ukrainian grain farmers — Blocked Black Sea ports left them with millions of tonnes of unsold grain and lower prices at home. [21]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    How far India's rice harvest will actually fall.

    The 10 million tonne figure is the exporters' own estimate. [1] The winter-sown crop is still to come and depends on reservoirs that are holding less water than normal. [1]

  • 02

    Whether India keeps rice exports open.

    A dealer says the record stock lets it keep exporting without limits. [1] India did stop almost all sugar exports in May because of drought, and analysts warn that big shortfalls can bring export limits. [2]

  • 03

    How strong this El Nino gets, and where it hits.

    US forecasters give a 75% chance of the strongest event since 1950. [3] USA Rice says El Nino changes the odds of rain in a region, and other weather can override it. [2]

  • 04

    Whether Florida's gene-edited rootstock saves the fruit.

    Test trees look healthier, but fruit takes years to show up, and nobody yet knows how it will taste. [11]

  • 05

    Whether deep-rooted soybeans keep their yields on real farms.

    The carbon estimate comes from lab results, and the field trials the $18 million grant pays for have not been run. [12]

  • 06

    Whether Swiss voters accept the Mercosur deal.

    Parliament passed it, but it is likely to go to a public vote. [8]

  • 07

    How the new WFP chief will share a shrinking budget.

    The agency aims to help 110 million of the 266 million people it says face acute hunger, and no plan for choosing among them has been published. [6]

  • 08

    Whether Australia's harvest finds enough workers.

    Backpackers hold one in seven farm jobs, and their visas will now take three months to process. [5]

04 Hope carry this

Australia's farmers expect a winter crop of 61 million tonnes, the fourth-largest on record, and their lentils are heading for a record 2.3 million tonnes.

Also true today

  • An international crop institute in Hyderabad can now pass gene-edited chickpea, pigeon pea and groundnut seed to small farmers, after winning a licence to the patents on the tool.
  • Florida growers are planting orange trees on a gene-edited root that resists citrus greening. The disease cut the state's harvest from about 300 million boxes a season to a little over 15 million.

Across the beats