The Bank of England raises its rate to 4% in an 8-1 vote, the first rise since August 2023, and warns inflation will reach about 5%

The stories

34 stories on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   The Bank of England raises its rate to 4% in an 8-1 vote, the first rise since August 2023, and warns inflation will reach about 5%

   4%

   Britain's main interest rate, up from 3.75%

   the first rise since August 2023 [2]

   8-1

   the vote, with one member wanting 4.25%

   economists polled by Reuters expected 7-2 [2]

   5%

   the inflation the Bank expects by the middle of next year

   against 3.5% in September and a 2% target [1]

   99.96%

   the chance money markets gave a rise to 4%

   and after the decision the pound sat flat against the dollar [3]

   What happened

   • The Bank of England raised its main rate from 3.75% to 4% on Thursday. [1] It is the first rise since August 2023. [2]
   • The Bank is Britain's central bank, and its committee sets this rate, Bank Rate, to meet the inflation target. [1]
   • Its 9-member committee voted 8-1. [1] Catherine Mann wanted a bigger rise, to 4.25%. [1]
   • Inflation, the yearly rise in prices, reached 3.5% in September, against a 2% target. [1]
   • The Bank now expects about 5% by the middle of next year. [1]
   • The war in the Middle East is in its ninth month, and energy prices have kept rising, the Bank says. [1]
   • In July the Bank forecast 3% inflation for September, and it came in at 3.5%. [2]
   • Britain's economy has been stronger than the Bank expected, which added to the case for a rise. [1]
   • In September the committee voted 6-3 to hold. [2] Economists polled by Reuters expected 7-2 this time. [2]
   • Money markets gave a rise to 4% a 99.96% chance before the news. [3] One analyst put it at around 95%. [3]
   • The pound hit its strongest against a basket of currencies since 23 June 2016, the day of the EU vote. [3]
   • The FTSE 250 index of mid-sized British firms hit a record 25,176 before the news. [3]
   • So analysts said the rise itself would matter less than the vote, the forecasts and Bailey's words. [3]
   • In the first reaction, the pound was flat against the dollar. [3] The 2-year UK government borrowing rate rose 0.02 of a point to 4.76%. [3]
   • London's FTSE 100 share index closed down 0.4% at 10,782, after rising over 100 points earlier. [3] A slump on Wall Street spread to it, the Guardian said. [3]
   • Governor Andrew Bailey wrote that "the case is clear" for a rise now. [1]
   • Without softer news, he can see the argument for one more rise, then deciding on the evidence. [1]
   • Markets were pricing almost 1 percentage point more by late 2027 before the decision, a path one analyst called ambitious. [3]
   • The Bank's own survey of market players expected 4.25% by February. [1]
   • Bailey told reporters the rise is not inevitably the first of many. [3] Unless the Middle East conflict is resolved, he said, it does not seem "likely to be the last increase". [3]
   • Oxford Economics, a consultancy, says December's meeting "looks like a coin flip". [3] Deutsche Bank expects one more rise, to 4.25%. [3]

   Who is involved

   • Oxford Economics a coin flip
   • Deutsche Bank one more rise
   • Andrew Bailey Governor of the Bank of England; voted for 4% and can see the case for one more rise
   • Catherine Mann a member of the Bank's rate committee; the one vote for a bigger rise, to 4.25%
   • The Monetary Policy Committee the 9 people at Britain's central bank who set Bank Rate

   How it unfolded

   1. September a 6-3 vote to hold; inflation at 3.5% [2]
   2. Forecast 7-2 to raise
   3. 5 November the rate rises to 4% on an 8-1 vote [1]
   4. August 2023 the Bank's last rate rise [2]
   5. 27 October the energy prices in today's forecast end [1]
   6. 17 December the next decision is due [1]

   Why it matters

   Market rates have already fed through to rates faced by some households and firms, the Bank says. [1]

   Benchmark 2-year mortgage rates had risen nearly 0.5 of a point since early September, before today's move. [1]

   How it works

   Economists call the worry second-round effects: energy costs feeding into wider pay and price rises. [1]

   Firms are cutting costs and taking thinner profits, and little has spread to other prices yet. [1] Bailey says those moves can only be temporary. [1]

   Seen it before

   Your rent rises, so you ask for more pay. Your boss then raises prices, and others ask too.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Nothing has been signed, and the Bank of England's own 5% inflation forecast uses oil prices from before the fall. [1]
   • Bank staff based the forecast on energy prices to 27 October, with Brent averaging $108. [1]
   • Brent has since fallen to about $95, so the 5% rests on prices that have already moved. [4]
   • Bailey said the forecasts had oil at $95 only by May 2027. [3] He said the decision would still have been the same. [3]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the Bank of England raises again in December.

     Bailey says he can see the argument, but that depends on news that has not yet arrived, including on energy prices. [1]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether higher pay follows dearer energy in Britain.

     The Bank says there is limited evidence so far, and that such effects usually show up later. [1]

   What comes next

   The Bank's next decision is due on 17 December. [1]

1. 02

   Oil falls below $100 on hopes of peace

   What happened

   • Brent, the world's benchmark oil price, fell more than 8% on Wednesday, touching $93.91. [5][19]
   • It slipped to $93.65 early on Thursday in Asia. [5] By mid-morning in India it was back at $95.19. [4]
   • In midday New York trading it rose 2.6% to $97.11, AP reported. [59]
   • Both main oil prices settled on Wednesday at their lowest since 31 August. [5]
   • An analyst called a post by US Vice President JD Vance a key catalyst. [20] He wrote: "The reason we lost is the war." [19]
   • JPMorgan, a big US bank, estimates oil supply beat demand by 1.4 million barrels a day last month. [21] Latin America pumps about 1.5 million more a day than last year. [21]
   • Middle Eastern exports have returned to prewar levels, Semafor reports. [21]

   How it unfolded

   Traders read that as pressure on President Trump to end the war with Iran. [20] It has disrupted energy supplies for 8 months. [19]

   Why it matters

   Jet fuel is a big cost for airlines, so IndiGo, an Indian carrier, rose over 7% on cheaper oil. [5]

   How it works

   Traders call this a risk premium: the extra in a price against something feared, here a bigger war. [19]

   Oil gained more than 10% in October on fears of a bigger war. [19] Trump then said he had no immediate plans to strike. [19]

   Seen it before

   Umbrellas cost more when a storm is forecast. The price drops when the forecast clears, though no rain fell.

   The truth

   • No deal exists yet. [19] A trader at CIBC, a Canadian bank, said the fall "could be getting a bit overdone". [19]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US and Iran actually reach a deal.

     Oil fell on signals and a post by the US Vice President, and a trader at CIBC says the fall may be overdone. [19] Bailey said the past 2 days have not been backed by firm evidence of a peace process. [3]

   Good news

   • Brent oil fell more than 8% on Wednesday, to its lowest close since 31 August.
2. 03

   Shares in AI builders split in two

   What happened

   • On Wednesday Microsoft and Amazon each rose more than 6%, while CoreWeave, which rents out AI computers, fell around 10%. [11]
   • Modine, which cools data centres, and Sterling Infrastructure, which prepares their sites, each fell about 21%. [10]
   • Chip makers Micron and Nvidia fell 7% and 3.17%. [11]
   • Voters in Ohio and other states had backed limits on data centres on Tuesday. [10]
   • Goldman Sachs warned the results could put limits on roughly 45% of planned US data-centre growth. [22]

   Why it matters

   The big cloud firms own working data centres. [22] The smaller ones are spending billions to catch up. [22]

   How it works

   Economists call this a barrier to entry: limits on new sites would hold back rivals of Amazon, Google and Microsoft. [22]

   JPMorgan's James Sullivan says tighter supply makes existing capacity more valuable. [11] Debt-funded firms like CoreWeave also pay far more to borrow. [11]

   Seen it before

   When a town stops new cafes opening, the cafes already on the high street can charge a bit more.

   The truth

   • Any new US law limiting AI would still need President Trump's signature, Mint reports. [4]
   • Who gains Amazon, Microsoft and Google — Limits on new sites could make their working data centres worth more and hold back smaller rivals. [22] They still fell 2% to 4% on Thursday. [57]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much of planned US data-centre building will actually stop.

     Goldman Sachs says up to about 45% could face limits, and Nomura says the harder hit comes from 2028; neither is a count of cancelled projects. [22][11]

   What comes next

   Nomura, a Japanese bank, says much of the capacity due in 2027 is already being built. [11] The harder hit comes from 2028. [11]

3. 04

   The Dow has its best day in 18 months

   What happened

   • The Dow Jones index of 30 big US firms jumped 3% on Wednesday, its best day in 18 months. [23] The S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Nasdaq 1.4%. [23]
   • In points, the Dow rose more than 1,500. [24]
   • Investors bet a divided US government would limit big policy changes, after Democrats won both houses of Congress. [23]
   • Early on Thursday the Dow was still rising, up 334 points just after the open. [24] It closed down 1,833.06 points, more than Wednesday's gain. [24]
   • South Korea's Kospi index closed down 5.28% on Thursday. [58] Japan's broad Topix closed up 1.16%. [24]

   Why it matters

   On Wednesday AI shares came under pressure while economically sensitive ones rose, CNBC says. [24]

   How it works

   Investors call this rotation: selling one kind of share and buying another, as they did with AI names. [24]

   CNBC says investors were moving away from technology shares. [24] On Wednesday that lifted the Dow more than the tech-heavy Nasdaq. [23]

   Seen it before

   When a school canteen stops selling chips, the sandwich queue grows, though no more children came in.

   The truth

   • One economist, Steven Blitz, warned: "Democrats control Congress for the next two years, but not Trump." [23]
4. 05

   US borrowing costs keep falling

   What happened

   • The US ten-year government rate was around 4.865% early on Thursday, about 3 basis points lower. [25] A basis point is 1/100th of 1%. [25]
   • It had already ended Wednesday 6 basis points lower. [25]
   • The dollar index, against a basket of currencies, fell 0.36% on Wednesday. [26] It slipped 0.06% more to 101.41 on Thursday. [26]
   • ADP, a US payroll company, says private firms added 86,000 jobs in October, above the 69,000 forecast. [26]

   How it unfolded

   1. Thursday weekly jobless claims
   2. Friday October's jobs report

   Why it matters

   High government borrowing rates have been weighing on the US economy, CNBC says. [27]

   How it works

   Bond traders call the rate a yield, and yields and prices move in opposite directions. [25]

   Surging oil had pushed yields up on inflation fears. [25] A currency strategist traces this bond rally to lower odds of new strikes on Iran. [26]

   Seen it before

   If everyone wants a fixed-prize raffle ticket, its price rises, and the winnings per penny you paid shrink.

   The truth

   • What is really going on The big moves in oil, bonds and the dollar rest on one bet: that the Democrats' win in the US vote will end the Iran war sooner. [19][26]

   Good news

   • Private US firms added 86,000 jobs in October, more than the 69,000 forecast.

   What comes next

   The US government's own jobs report comes on Friday. [25]

5. 06

   A debt-limit fight looms for 2027

   What happened

   • The US Treasury can borrow up to $41.1 trillion, a limit Congress set in 2025. [27]
   • Its deficit, the gap between spending and tax, is $1.99 trillion this year. [27]
   • The Bipartisan Policy Center, which tracks this, says the US Treasury will likely hit the limit by midsummer. [27]
   • Accounting moves could stretch the last safe day to the fourth quarter of 2027, Wall Street estimates say. [27]
   • CNBC's analysis says this time Democrats hold the leverage, and would ask for more spending, not less. [27]

   Who is involved

   • Democrats Congress
   • Trump the White House

   How it unfolded

   In past fights Republicans demanded cuts from a Democratic president; this one reverses it. [27]

   Why it matters

   A missed US payment would put trillions in government bonds in doubt, and those bonds underpin the world's finance. [27]

   How it works

   Political scientists call this brinkmanship: pushing a must-pass bill to the edge to win something else. [27]

   The US cannot borrow what Congress has ordered it to spend once the limit is reached. [27] So Democrats can demand concessions for their votes. [27]

   Seen it before

   A flatmate who must sign the lease renewal can ask for the bigger room before signing.

6. 07

   A Senate flip shields the US central bank

   What happened

   • Democrats' win gives them the US Senate, which approves anyone joining the Federal Reserve, the US central bank. [28]
   • US Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh was confirmed in May by 54 to 45. [28] Only one Democratic senator backed him. [28]
   • Elizabeth Warren, a harsh critic of Warsh, will likely chair the US Senate committee that questions him. [28]
   • A White House panel moved its hearing on US central bank governor Lisa Cook from Thursday to 14 December. [29]
   • Traders see an 81.2% chance of a US rate rise in December, up from 77.4% a day earlier. [26]

   How it unfolded

   President Trump tried to fire Cook in August 2025; the US Supreme Court barred it in June, for now. [29]

   1. Thursday the old date
   2. 14 December the new date

   Why it matters

   President Trump has tried to meddle with the US central bank. [28] So who the US Senate approves shapes who sets rates. [28]

   How it works

   Economists call this central bank independence: rate-setters a president cannot simply replace. [29][28]

   Picks for the central bank need the US Senate's approval. [28] With Democrats in charge, that guards against more Trump allies there. [28]

   Seen it before

   Fans trust a referee more when one team cannot swap him for a friend before the match.

   The truth

   • Cook's lawyer has questioned the panel's fairness, and it is unclear if she will attend. [29]
7. 08

   China blocks SoftBank's robot deal

   What happened

   • China has told SoftBank, a Japanese investor, it cannot buy the robot unit of ABB for $5.4 billion. [12] ABB is a Swiss-Swedish firm. [30]
   • ABB confirmed on Thursday that SoftBank told it Chinese regulators had blocked the deal in China. [30]
   • China is ABB's biggest robot market, about 30% of that business. [12]
   • China's National Development and Reform Commission feared robot data would go abroad to train AI, the FT reported. [12] SoftBank is a major OpenAI investor. [12]
   • SoftBank's shares fell 5.1% to 4,053 yen on Thursday. [31]
   • Arm, the chip designer about 90% owned by SoftBank, fell about 5% too after its forecast disappointed. [31]

   How it unfolded

   The deal was agreed in October last year, and SoftBank expected approval until last week. [12]

   1. October last year the deal is agreed
   2. Until last week approval expected
   3. Thursday blocked

   Why it matters

   A deal between a Japanese and a Swiss-Swedish firm can still need China's approval, because it sells there. [12][30]

   How it works

   Lawyers call this foreign investment screening: a state checking who gains control of a technology, as China's planner did here. [12]

   The reported fear was robot data going abroad. [12] Because about 30% of the business is in China, China had a say. [12]

   Seen it before

   A school may stop an old laptop being sold to outsiders if it still holds pupils' records.

   The truth

   • ABB says the two firms are still working on the sale, and neither has said what happens next. [30]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What happens to ABB's robot sale now.

     ABB says it is working with SoftBank on the deal, and neither has said what comes next. [30]

1. 09

   Toyota's shares jump as its forecast rises

   What happened

   • Toyota's shares rose as much as 15% on Thursday after it raised its yearly profit forecast. [13]
   • It now expects operating profit of 3.9 trillion yen, up 15% from its forecast of 3.4 trillion. [32]
   • Its quarterly operating profit, 1.13 trillion yen, beat the 992 billion analysts forecast. [33]
   • That is its first rise in 6 quarters. [33] A weak yen and demand for hybrids, which mix petrol and electric power, helped. [33]
   • Net profit, the amount after everything, still fell 19% to 759.4 billion yen. [13]
   • Sales in China and the Middle East slid. [33]
   • Toyota's annual vehicle sales forecast went down, from 11.18 million to 10.99 million. [13]
   • The shares had already gained around 8% before the results. [33]

   Who is involved

   Toyota, a Japanese firm, is the world's top-selling carmaker. [13]

   Why it matters

   Revenue rose 8.6% despite lower vehicle sales, so the top-selling carmaker earned more on fewer cars. [13]

   How it works

   Accountants call this a translation gain: profit earned abroad is worth more in a weaker home currency. [13]

   The yen fell about 28% against the dollar over 5 years. [13] So each dollar Toyota earns turns into more yen. [13]

   Seen it before

   If your pocket money comes in a foreign coin that gains value, you can buy more without earning more.

   Why markets move on the surprise, not on the news

   Financial economists call it the efficient-market hypothesis: prices already hold what traders expect, so only the gap between forecast and result moves them.

   The twist

   A rate rise can be big news and still tell traders almost nothing, because they had already bought and sold on it.

   The picture

   99.96%Market chance of 4%

   vsvs

   1 of 9Vote for a bigger rise

   Step by step

   1. 1 Traders bet on what they expect: money markets gave the Bank's 4% a 99.96% chance
   2. 2 Those bets move prices early: the pound hit its highest since 2016 before the vote
   3. 3 A result that matches the forecast adds nothing new to trade on: after the 4%, the pound sat flat
   4. 4 Only the gap moves prices: Toyota beat a 992 billion yen forecast, and its shares jumped

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Toyota's forecast

     Its profit of 1.13 trillion yen beat a 992 billion forecast, and the shares rose after results on top of an 8% gain before them.

   • Rheinmetall's cut

     Sales rose 32% in the quarter, but the shares fell over 17%, because the forecast they were priced on came down.

   • Figma's fall

     It beat forecasts and fell 7%, because its shares are priced on fast growth, and growth is slowing to about 33%.

   • Novo's rise

     A forecast of up to 2% growth is a small number, and the shares jumped because traders had priced flat or falling sales.

   Where you've seen this

   A school exam

   A pupil expected to get top marks gets no praise for top marks, and one expected to fail gets plenty for a pass.

   A football transfer

   When everyone knows a star is coming, the fans have already celebrated; only a surprise signing fills the street.

   Weather and umbrellas

   A storm that was forecast all week changes nothing in the shop on the day it arrives.

   The catch

   The published forecast is not always what traders really expect. A firm can beat it and still disappoint them, and nobody sees their true figure until the price moves.

   And the whole of it

   A saver with a pension, a person who wants a loan and a trader all live inside these prices. The trader only sees the gap. The saver and the borrower get the rate itself, surprise or not.

   The truth

   • Net profit of 759.4 billion yen missed the 779.6 billion analysts forecast, and the shares rose anyway. [13]
   • Who gains Toyota's investors — The weak yen turns each dollar earned abroad into more yen. [13]

1. 10

   Rheinmetall falls 17% on a forecast cut

   What happened

   • Shares in Rheinmetall, a German arms maker, fell over 17% in early trading on Thursday. [14]
   • It now expects 2026 sales of around 13.2 billion euros, down from a range of 13.7 billion to 14.2 billion. [14]
   • The German army's order for Boxer armoured vehicles slipped to next year. [14] Artillery shells had setbacks in acceptance tests. [14]
   • Its third-quarter sales actually rose 32% to 3.15 billion euros. [14]
   • Orders waiting to be filled reached 78 billion euros. [14]
   • The shares are down about 46% this year, after gaining an average of 119% a year for 4 years. [14]

   How it unfolded

   It is the second forecast cut since August. [14] Germany then scrapped warships that would have been its biggest order since World War II. [14]

   Why it matters

   Spending by European governments drove that boom, so their delays now hit the forecast. [14]

   How it works

   Accountants call this revenue recognition: an order counts as sales only when delivered, so delays cut the forecast. [14]

   Rheinmetall holds 78 billion euros of orders. [14] Vehicles and shells that slip past 2026 cannot be counted as this year's sales. [14]

   Seen it before

   A paper round pays you for papers delivered, not for the list of houses you have promised to reach.

   Sales rose 32% in the quarter, but the shares fell over 17%, because the forecast they were priced on came down.

   The idea, in story 09: Why markets move on the surprise, not on the news →

   The truth

   • RBC, a Canadian bank, warned the news could feed doubts about traditional defence technology against newer rivals. [14]
2. 11

   CVS's shares fall 12% on its split

   What happened

   • Shares in CVS Health, the largest US healthcare group, fell about 12% on Wednesday after it announced a split. [16][34]
   • By the first half of 2028, its roughly 9,000 shops split from insurer Aetna and Caremark, a drug-benefit manager. [16]
   • The group was valued at $117bn, with over $400bn in revenue last year. [34]
   • Arkansas and Tennessee have passed laws to stop one firm both managing drug benefits and running pharmacies. [34]

   Who is involved

   • CVS Pharmacy 9,000 shops
   • CVS Health Aetna and Caremark

   How it unfolded

   CVS weighed a split in 2024 and walked away, when the shops looked too weak to stand alone. [16]

   Why it matters

   CVS, UnitedHealth and Cigna control roughly 80% of the market, the Guardian reports, so lawmakers are watching. [34]

   How it works

   Corporate finance calls this a conglomerate discount: a sprawling group can be valued below its separate units. [16]

   The split could let investors value each unit alone, not one sprawling group, CNBC says. [16]

   Seen it before

   A shop selling both toys and tyres is hard to value. Split in two, each part is easier.

3. 12

   Novo raises its forecast, led by the Wegovy pill

   What happened

   • Novo Nordisk's US-traded shares rose nearly 5% on Wednesday, their biggest gain since June. [35]
   • Novo is the Danish maker of Wegovy, a weight-loss drug. [35] It now expects sales growth of -2% to 2%, up from -6% to 0%. [36]
   • It earned 5.79 kroner a share, against the 5.10 Wall Street expected. [37]
   • Sales of the Wegovy pill beat Wall Street's estimates by roughly 17%. [35]
   • Novo estimates the pill takes about 80% of new prescriptions for weight-loss pills. [35]
   • Its cash left after spending is now forecast at 60 to 70 billion kroner, up from 45 to 55 billion. [36]

   Why it matters

   Its old outlook was flat to falling sales, so even small growth was a change for investors. [35]

   How it works

   Investors call Novo's quarter a beat-and-raise: a result above forecast and a higher forecast for what comes next. [35]

   The top of Novo's sales forecast rose to 2%, from flat to falling before. [35] Its shares then had their biggest gain since June. [35]

   Seen it before

   A pupil expected to fail who gets a middling mark is praised more than one expected to do well.

   A forecast of up to 2% growth is a small number, and the shares jumped because traders had priced flat or falling sales.

   The idea, in story 09: Why markets move on the surprise, not on the news →

   The truth

   • Novo itself names lower prices and lost exclusive rights in some markets as pressures ahead. [36]
4. 13

   Figma falls despite beating forecasts

   What happened

   • Figma, which makes design software, fell 7% in late trading on Wednesday after results above forecasts. [15]
   • Its quarterly sales were $391.4 million, against $375.8 million expected. [15]
   • It earned 10 cents a share, double the 5 cents expected. [15]
   • It raised its full-year sales forecast. [15] It sees growth of about 33% next quarter, above the 28% analysts predicted. [15]
   • Figma's sales grew about 43% in the quarter, so 33% is a slowdown. [15] Its finance chief called this a trade of short-term sales for long-term gain. [15]

   How it unfolded

   The shares had already fallen about 41% this year, on fears AI could compete with it. [15]

   Why it matters

   Figma is giving clients more AI credits at the same price, which is part of that trade. [15]

   How it works

   Investors call Figma a growth stock, priced on sales growth ahead. [15] So a slowdown can outweigh a good quarter. [15]

   Figma's growth was 43% and is forecast at about 33%. [15] The shares fell 7% even though results and forecast beat what analysts predicted. [15]

   Seen it before

   A runner who wins but slows down near the end can worry a coach more than the medal pleases them.

   It beat forecasts and fell 7%, because its shares are priced on fast growth, and growth is slowing to about 33%.

   The idea, in story 09: Why markets move on the surprise, not on the news →
5. 14

   Elf Beauty's sales jump 51%

   What happened

   • Elf Beauty, a make-up and skincare company, said quarterly sales rose 51% to $520.8 million. [38]
   • That is its 31st quarter in a row of sales growth, the company said. [38]
   • It now expects full-year sales of $2 billion to $2.03 billion, up from $1.94 billion to $1.97 billion. [38]
   • Rhode, the skincare brand it bought last year, also did well. [38]
   • Its chief executive, Tarang Amin, said every one of its brands grew. [38]
   • The firm calls itself the most-searched brand on TikTok Shop. [38]

   Why it matters

   Shoppers are still paying for beauty goods, with growth in both the US and abroad, the firm says. [38]

   How it works

   Marketers call this channel strategy: the firm sells in shops and online, including on TikTok Shop. [38]

   The firm says both shops and online sales drove the 51% rise. [38]

   Seen it before

   A lemonade stand does better when it sets up where the football crowd already walks past.

6. 15

   Gold climbs back above $4,100

   What happened

   • Spot gold, the price for buying it now, rose 1.9% to $4,134.83 an ounce early on Thursday. [39]
   • That is its highest since 22 October. [39] It climbed about 3.4% on Wednesday, its biggest daily gain since 19 August. [39]
   • Silver rose 1.7%, platinum 2.1% and palladium 2.6%. [39]
   • Citi, a US bank, forecasts $4,500 within 3 months if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. [39]
   • A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for people paying in other currencies. [39]

   Why it matters

   Gold miners listed in Australia jumped on it, with Evolution Mining up 14.2% and Newmont up 13%. [7]

   How it works

   Economists call it opportunity cost: holding gold, which pays no interest, means giving up what interest would pay. [39]

   Higher rates raise the cost of holding gold. [39] With US yields lower, that cost shrank, and gold rose to a two-week high. [39]

   Seen it before

   Coins in a jar cost you little when banks pay little interest, and more when banks pay well.

7. 16

   Norway holds its rate; Sweden raised

   What happened

   • Norway's central bank held its rate at 4.5% on Thursday, as investors expected. [8]
   • Sweden's central bank raised by a quarter-point on Wednesday, its first rise in over 3 years. [8]
   • Norway's inflation was 3.4% in September, above its 2% target since 2020. [8]
   • Governor Ida Wolden Bache said: "Inflation is too high." [8]
   • Norway makes most of its power from hydropower and other renewables, so it is less exposed to energy price swings. [8]

   How it unfolded

   Norway's bank has raised rates twice since the war began. [8]

   Why it matters

   Governor Bache said the rate will likely stay high for a time, which reaches Norway's borrowers. [8]

   How it works

   Central bankers call this forward guidance: saying what you may do next, as Norway did by keeping a rise open. [8]

   Norway held but said it is prepared to raise "if needed". [8] Investors had expected no change until the end of next year. [8]

   Seen it before

   A teacher who warns of detention can change a class without keeping anyone in.

8. 17

   Australia's central bank says trust is slipping

   What happened

   • Andrew Hauser, deputy governor of Australia's central bank, said trust in its near-term inflation fight has "fallen materially". [9]
   • About 55% of people surveyed still hold high or moderately high trust in the bank overall. [9]
   • The survey, begun in February last year, has drawn on 12,000 Australians. [9]
   • The bank raised rates to 4.85% this week, the highest in 18 years. [9]
   • More businesses doubt its inflation target will be met in 5 to 10 years, a Macquarie University survey found. [9]

   Why it matters

   Hauser said trust plays a very important role in managing what Australians expect inflation to be. [9]

   How it works

   Economists call this anchored inflation expectations: people believing prices will return to target, which more Australian businesses now doubt. [9]

   More businesses doubt the target will be met. [9] Hauser said the bank is determined to do what it must to get inflation down. [9]

   Seen it before

   If a teacher's deadlines keep slipping, the class stops taking them seriously, and the next deadline is harder to enforce.

9. 18

   Australian shares add $80 billion in a day

   What happened

   • Australia's main share index rose 2.6% to 9065.19 on Thursday, adding $80 billion in value. [7]
   • BHP, the world's largest miner, rose 6.7%, and Rio Tinto 7%, with Fortescue up 9.2%. [7]
   • Tech shares rose 10.1%. [7]
   • Woodside fell 6% and Santos 5.4%, as cheaper oil hit energy firms. [7]
   • It was the most the market had gained since April. [7]
   • Eagers Automotive, a car dealer, fell 13.2% after a poor trading update. [7]

   Why it matters

   An analyst said an end to the war would ease fears of more rate rises. [7] Consumer shares such as JB Hi-Fi rose 4.8%. [7]

   How it works

   Investors call Thursday a relief rally: prices rising because a feared outcome, more war, now looks less likely. [7]

   The US vote fuelled hope the Iran war could end soon. [7] Oil fell, and the market rose the most since April. [7]

   Seen it before

   A pupil dreading a test cheers when it is put off, even though nothing has been learned.

10. 19

    NAB's profit falls 9%

    What happened

    • National Australia Bank, the country's biggest lender to businesses, said annual profit fell 9% to A$6.14 billion. [40]
    • Its shares fell 5.4% on Thursday. [7]
    • Its chief executive, Andrew Irvine, said the chance of a recession had probably risen. [40] It is still not the likeliest outcome. [40]
    • NAB expects economic growth of about 1% next year. [40]
    • More home loan payments are overdue, the bank said. [40]

    How it unfolded

    The Reserve Bank has raised rates 5 times this year. [40] NAB passed the latest rise on to customers in full. [40]

    Why it matters

    NAB passes the rate rise to borrowers in full. [40] Its margin rose to 1.8%. [40]

    How it works

    Bankers call it the net interest margin, a key measure of profit on lending, and NAB's rose to 1.8%. [40]

    NAB's margin rose by 6 basis points while overdue home loan payments ticked up. [40]

    Seen it before

    A shop can earn more per loaf after a price rise, while some customers pay late.

    The truth

    • Who pays Australians with home loans — NAB passed this week's rise on in full, and more of its home loan payments are overdue. [40]
11. 20

    David Jones collapses after 188 years

    What happened

    • David Jones, a 188-year-old Australian department store, went into voluntary administration on Thursday. [41]
    • It has 38 stores, and its collapse leaves 6,000 workers uncertain. [41][42]
    • Talks with its landlord, Westfield, broke down, and it is behind on rent. [41]
    • Its lender, Hilco, appointed receivers, and stores keep trading under their control. [41]
    • Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent and others left their counters in the stores. [42]
    • Rival Myer's shares rose 13% on Thursday. [7]

    How it unfolded

    Its private-equity backer, Anchorage, paid for a $250 million revamp, and lenders ran out of appetite last year. [43]

    Why it matters

    An analyst says up to half its lost sales could go to Myer, worth up to $180 million. [43]

    How it works

    Insolvency law calls it voluntary administration: outsiders take over David Jones and review whether it can be reset. [41]

    The receiver says the process gives breathing space to restructure the business. [41] They have "ultimate control", and steps to shrink the store count are likely. [41]

    Seen it before

    A family that cannot pay its bills might let an adviser decide what to keep and what to sell.

    The truth

    • Staff keep being paid, but the receivers are still reviewing what workers are owed. [41]
    • Who gains Myer, David Jones's rival — An analyst says up to half of David Jones's lost sales could move to it. [43]
    • Who pays David Jones's 6,000 workers — Their jobs depend on which stores the receivers keep. [42]
    • Nobody knows yet

      How many David Jones stores close, and what staff are owed.

      The receivers are still reviewing stores and unpaid entitlements. [41]

12. 21

    Woodside cuts at least 500 jobs

    What happened

    • Woodside, an Australian gas company, will cut at least 500 jobs, about 10% of its staff. [44]
    • It aims to save $550 million a year from 2028. [44]
    • About 80% of its staff work in Australia, mostly in the west. [44] Where the cuts fall is not yet known. [44]
    • Its Scarborough gas project is 99% complete, and weeks from its first shipment. [44]
    • Its shares fell 6% on Thursday as oil fell. [7]

    How it unfolded

    BHP said in October it would cut up to 300 jobs in Western Australia's iron ore business. [44]

    Why it matters

    Workers in Western Australia fear for their jobs, and the state's treasurer said she was very disappointed. [44]

    How it works

    Managers call this a restructuring: Woodside cuts costs as part of a plan to raise returns to investors. [44]

    Woodside cuts jobs as Scarborough nears its first shipment. [44] One analyst says money is falling into its coffers. [44]

    Seen it before

    A family that has finished building a house no longer needs the builders, and can keep their wages.

    The truth

    • Who pays Woodside's staff — At least 500 lose their jobs under a plan to raise returns to investors. [44]
13. 22

    India's shares jump as oil falls

    What happened

    • India's Sensex index rose 1,621 points, or 2%, to 78,922.44 at its high on Thursday. [6]
    • It was the sixth rising session in a row, up around 5.6% in that time. [6]
    • The owner of IndiGo, an Indian airline, rose over 7%, and 17.5% over 5 sessions, as oil fell. [5]
    • Ashok Leyland, a truck maker, rose 10.5%, its biggest one-day gain since April. [45]
    • Emkay Global, a research firm, estimates India's current account gap at 1.7% of output with oil at $100. [4] At $90 it is 1.4%. [4]

    How it unfolded

    India's oil import bill is up around 24% so far this financial year. [4]

    Why it matters

    India depends on imports for its energy, so cheaper oil lifts its finances and company earnings, Mint reports. [4]

    How it works

    Economists call this the current account: what a country earns abroad less what it spends there. [4]

    Emkay Global's estimate falls from 1.7% to 1.4% as oil goes from $100 to $90. [4]

    Seen it before

    A family's savings grow when the petrol bill falls, even if nobody earns more.

    The truth

    • Cheaper oil may not bring foreign investors back in a big way, since global money still favours AI, Mint reports. [4]
    • Who gains Oil-buying countries such as India — Emkay Global's estimate of India's gap with the world drops from 1.7% of output at $100 oil to 1.4% at $90. [4]
14. 23

    Lenskart and Nykaa hit highs

    What happened

    • Lenskart, an Indian glasses seller, hit a record 762.75 rupees on Thursday, up 6%. [46]
    • Its sales rose 32.5% to 2,845 crore rupees in the quarter. [46]
    • Nykaa, an Indian beauty seller, hit a 52-week high of 363.40 rupees. [47]
    • Nykaa's profit tripled to 101 crore rupees, on sales up 28% to 3,006 crore. [47]
    • Lenskart buys raw material from China, and the rupee fell about 16% against the yuan. [46]

    Why it matters

    Nykaa's yearly customers rose 26%, and its stores went from 265 to 338 in a year. [47]

    How it works

    Economists call this operating leverage: as each Lenskart store sells more, its margin rises. [46]

    Lenskart's stores sold 20.8% more than a year ago. [46] Its margin grew by 274 basis points to 13.8%. [46]

    Seen it before

    A bakery's oven costs the same however many loaves it bakes, so each extra loaf earns more.

    The truth

    • A weaker rupee stays a risk until Lenskart makes more of its goods in India, Mint says. [46]
15. 24

    Deoleo falls 18% as rivals take it over

    What happened

    • Shares in Deoleo, the world's largest olive oil company, were down 17.8% on Thursday. [17]
    • Two Spanish rivals, Dcoop and Acesur, plan to buy it and hold 50% each. [17]
    • Firms from Italy, France and Australia had also been in the bidding, an intensifying fight. [17]
    • The shares had risen over 20% on 19 August when news of the fight came out. [17]
    • They are still up around 55% this year, helped by easier olive oil prices and US sales. [17]
    • Dcoop reportedly offered 470 million euros earlier. [17]

    Who is involved

    • Dcoop 50%
    • Acesur 50%

    Why it matters

    Spain is a leading olive oil producer, and this deal would further concentrate the trade there. [17]

    How it works

    Investors call this a takeover premium: the shares rose over 20% in August when a bidding fight emerged. [17]

    The fight was between Dcoop and foreign firms. [17] Thursday's plan puts Dcoop and Acesur together, and the shares fell. [17]

    Seen it before

    Friends bidding for a bike may agree to share it, and the seller loses a higher offer.

    The truth

    • CNBC gives no price for the deal and no reason for the fall. [17] Deoleo had not answered its request for comment. [17]
16. 25

    AstraZeneca is said to offer $10 billion for Rhythm

    What happened

    • AstraZeneca, a drug maker, has offered $10 billion for US biotech firm Rhythm, the Wall Street Journal reported. [3]
    • The offer is $124 a share. [3]
    • Rhythm's shares jumped 28% to $110.68 after the report. [3]
    • Rhythm develops treatments for rare disorders of the nerves and hormones. [3]

    Why it matters

    A deal would widen AstraZeneca's range of rare disease treatments. [3]

    How it works

    Investors call the gap the merger spread: Rhythm's $110.68 shares sat below the $124 reported offer. [3]

    AstraZeneca has declined to comment, so nothing is confirmed. [3] The shares were slightly lower before Thursday's US open. [3]

    Seen it before

    A ticket to a sold-out game costs less the day before if nobody is sure the game will happen.

17. 26

    HP picks the former GSK boss

    What happened

    • HP, the US PC maker, named Emma Walmsley as chief executive on Wednesday. [48]
    • She ran GSK, a British drug maker, from 2017 until December last year, and has no background in computer hardware. [48]
    • HP's shares rose 4.6% in early trading. [48]
    • She takes over on 4 January from an interim boss, Bruce Broussard. [48]
    • HP's PC shipments fell 16% in its third quarter. [48]

    How it unfolded

    1. Now Bruce Broussard, interim
    2. 4 January Emma Walmsley

    Why it matters

    AI data centres are absorbing much of the memory chip supply, driving up PC prices. [48]

    How it works

    Boards call this a turnaround hire: a leader chosen for restructuring, as HP chose Walmsley over hardware experience. [48]

    One analyst says Walmsley split Haleon from GSK, and that restructuring is what HP needs. [48]

    Seen it before

    A team in trouble may hire a coach who has rebuilt other clubs, even from a different league.

18. 27

    The New York Times adds 420,000 subscribers

    What happened

    • The New York Times added 420,000 digital subscribers in its third quarter, reaching 13.8 million in all. [49]
    • Revenue rose 9.7% to $768.5 million. [49]
    • Adjusted operating profit rose to $149.6 million from $131.4 million. [49]
    • Print subscribers fell to 540,000 from 570,000. [49]
    • Its aim is 15 million subscribers by the end of 2027. [49]

    Why it matters

    Digital subscriptions earned $421.3 million, up 14.6%, while print keeps shrinking. [49]

    How it works

    Media economists call this bundling: The Times counts readers across news, Wirecutter, Cooking, Games and the Athletic. [49]

    Seen it before

    A gym with a pool, a sauna and classes keeps members who only came for one of them.

19. 28

    Dangote's refinery sale widens; Nigeria's oil firm may follow

    What happened

    • Dangote, a Nigerian group, held talks with African exchanges to widen access to its $1.6 billion refinery share sale. [50]
    • The sale drew about $4.77 billion of orders, around 3 times what was on offer, Reuters sources said. [50]
    • Different listing rules in each country have complicated the plan. [50]
    • Nigeria's state oil company, NNPC, may float up to 10% of itself in Lagos, its chief told Reuters. [51]

    Who is involved

    Edoh Kossi Amenounve, head of West Africa's regional exchange, urged regulators to accept each other's approvals. [50]

    Why it matters

    Today the demand comes from Nigerian investors. [50] Wider access would let investors across Africa buy. [52]

    How it works

    Lawyers call this mutual recognition: one country accepts another's approval without repeating the checks. [50]

    Today a company needs each country's regulator to approve it separately. [50] Mutual recognition would turn many approvals into one. [50]

    Seen it before

    A school's reading test counts at the next school, so you do not sit it all over again.

    Good news

    • Nigerian investors asked for about 3 times the shares on offer in Africa's biggest share sale. [50][52]

    What comes next

    The shares are due to list in Lagos later this month. [50]

20. 29

    Kenya's corruption costs 2% of output a year

    What happened

    • The World Bank estimates corruption and poor governance could cost Kenya 2% of its yearly output in bigger deficits. [53]
    • Debt payments swallow roughly 60% of government revenue. [53]
    • Kenya's economy grew 5.1% in the first half of 2026, faster than a year earlier. [53]
    • William Ruto, Kenya's president, seeks re-election next year after street protests over living costs. [53]

    Why it matters

    Kenya's government revenue pays those debts, so a bigger bill leaves less for anything else. [53]

    How it works

    Development economists call this leakage: public money lost to graft instead of what it was meant to buy. [53]

    The World Bank says graft could raise what Kenya must borrow. [53] More borrowing adds to debt payments that are already heavy. [53]

    Seen it before

    A bucket with a hole needs more trips to the tap to fill it.

    The truth

    • Who pays Kenyans — Roughly 60% of government revenue goes on debt payments, leaving less for everything else. [53]

    Good news

    • Kenya's economy grew 5.1% in the first half of 2026, faster than a year earlier.
21. 30

    China runs short of copper

    What happened

    • Copper for delivery now cost 1,900 yuan a ton over futures in Shanghai on Wednesday, the highest gap since 2021. [54]
    • Chinese smelters, which refine the metal, have cut output, and less is coming from Africa and Russia. [54]
    • Copper for December cost $880 a ton more than January's in Shanghai. [54]
    • In London copper stood at $14,044.50 a ton on Thursday. [54]

    How it unfolded

    Copper hit records this year as US tariff bets drew it to America. [54]

    Why it matters

    Data centres are a key source of demand, so doubts about that boom have eased the rally. [54]

    How it works

    Commodity traders call it backwardation: Shanghai copper for December costs more than copper for January. [54]

    Factories in China are buying only what they need right away. [54] With supplies short, spot premiums have soared. [54]

    Seen it before

    A ticket for tonight's sold-out show costs more than one for next month's.

22. 31

    Bets on the vote reach $1.8 billion

    What happened

    • Bets on lesser races at Kalshi and Polymarket, 2 betting sites, reached $1.8 billion, nearly 5 times 2024's, Semafor found. [55]
    • The sites called the Democratic sweep by wider margins than most polling models. [55]
    • They missed Greg Abbott losing in Texas and Senate wins in Iowa and South Carolina. [55]
    • Sports and crypto bets still dwarf election bets on both sites. [55]
    • Kalshi has business deals with CNN and Dow Jones. [55]

    Why it matters

    Both sites are racing to win customers from sports betting, with big ad campaigns. [55]

    How it works

    Economists call this the wisdom of crowds: prices from many bets can predict, as these called the sweep. [55]

    The sites called the sweep but missed Abbott's loss. [55] So these prices got the big result right and some single races wrong. [55]

    Seen it before

    A class guessing sweets in a jar often gets closer on average than most of the pupils alone.

23. 32

    A US oil driller's owners weigh a $4 billion sale

    What happened

    • The backers of Enduring Resources IV, a US oil driller, may sell it at over $4 billion, sources said. [18]
    • EnCap Investments leads its private owners, and it has hired the bank Jefferies. [18]
    • It holds over 557,000 net acres in Colorado and New Mexico. [18]
    • It could be sold in pieces to several buyers because of its size. [18]
    • Nobody has confirmed a deal, and the sources warned none is certain. [18]

    How it unfolded

    1. Now weighing a sale
    2. Early 2027 the sale launches

    Why it matters

    A sale in early 2027 would show what buyers pay for US oil land after this week's oil fall. [18][19]

    How it works

    Private equity calls this an exit: backers selling a firm they own, as EnCap may here. [18]

    EnCap backed this version of the firm in 2017. [18] Its managers have built and sold oil companies for 2 decades. [18]

    Seen it before

    Someone who fixes up an old bike to sell does not plan to keep it forever.

    What comes next

    The sale is expected to launch in early 2027. [18]

24. 33

    Wall Street has its worst day since April 2025

    What happened

    • The Nasdaq index closed down 5.52% on Thursday at 24,315.00, CNBC reported. [24]
    • The S&P 500 fell 4.36% to 7,353.73. [24] The Dow lost 1,833.06 points, or 3.44%, to 51,523.06. [24]
    • All 3 had their worst day since April 2025. [24]
    • Fortune put the loss at roughly $3 trillion of share value during the session. [58]
    • Chip makers Broadcom and Nvidia fell 10% and 9%, and Qualcomm 9% on a weak outlook. [24]
    • A fund of chip shares, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, fell more than 12%, its worst day since March 2020. [24]
    • SpaceX and Tesla each fell more than 9%. [57]
    • The selling spread: Caterpillar fell 5%, JPMorgan 4%, and Boeing and Nike 3%. [24]

    How it unfolded

    The Dow rose more than 1,500 points on Wednesday. [24] It opened up 334 on Thursday, then more than wiped out Wednesday's gain. [24]

    1. Wednesday up more than 1,500
    2. Thursday open up 334
    3. Thursday close down 1,833.06

    Why it matters

    Investors fear the Democrats' wins could slow the building of data centres, CNBC says. [24]

    Senator Bernie Sanders, who sits with the Democrats, has called for a national halt to new data centres. [24]

    Rising interest rates and huge capital needs add fears of too much debt and too little revenue, CNBC says. [57]

    How it works

    Traders call a fall of 10% from a record a correction, and the Nasdaq has passed that line. [24] The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 4.45% and entered one too. [24]

    Keith Lerner of Truist Wealth says the tech sell-off "is now feeding itself into the broader market". [24]

    Seen it before

    A game everyone rushed to can empty fast once a rumour says it may be shut down.

    The truth

    • What is really going on On Thursday Wall Street fell on a second fear, that data-centre building will slow. [24]
    • A fund manager at Janus Henderson said nobody will know how far building slows "anytime soon". [57]
25. 34

    Emirates' profit falls 66% on the war

    What happened

    • Emirates Group, a Dubai state-owned firm, said first-half net profit fell 66%, to $1 billion from $2.9 billion. [56]
    • The airline carried 21.8 million passengers from April to September, 22% fewer than a year earlier. [56]
    • Its revenue fell 13%, and its own profit after tax fell 66% to $903 million. [56]
    • Cargo revenue rose 52%, though the amount of goods carried dipped slightly. [56]
    • The group's staff shrank 2% to 128,237. [56]

    Who is involved

    The group runs the Middle East's largest airline. [56]

    How it unfolded

    Iranian drones and missiles repeatedly targeted Dubai's airport early in the war. [56]

    Why it matters

    Its chairman said "global jet fuel prices doubled" against the same period last year. [56]

    How it works

    Airline economists call it the hub model: joining passengers between continents through one airport, as Gulf airlines do. [56]

    Nearly 1 in 6 transit passengers worldwide passed through the Middle East last year. [56] Strikes at Dubai disrupted flights and kept tourists away. [56]

    Seen it before

    When a big bus station closes, riders changing there lose their trip, even if they never lived nearby.