The world will use about 30 million tonnes more corn than it grows this season, the widest gap in over 30 years

The stories

12 stories on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   The world will use about 30 million tonnes more corn than it grows this season, the widest gap in over 30 years

   ~30m tonnes

   more corn the world is forecast to use than it grows in 2026/27, the widest gap in over 30 years

   and America is still harvesting its second-largest corn crop on record [2]

   16%

   rise in Chicago corn prices in August alone

   a record one-month rise, in a month when prices usually fall [1]

   9.7%

   of a year's US corn use forecast to be left in store

   the tightest since 2020/21, when it was 8.3% [2]

   Over 2x vs 5%

   growth in oilseed land against grain land among big exporters since 2000/01

   Brazil's growing soybean fields drove much of it [1]

   What happened

   • American farmers have started harvesting their second-largest corn crop on record. [1][2]
   • Even so, the world is forecast to use nearly 30 million tonnes more corn than it grows in the 2026/27 season. [1]
   • That would be the widest gap in more than three decades, on the US Department of Agriculture's estimates of 11 September. [1][3]
   • Prices moved first.
   • Chicago corn futures, prices for corn to be delivered later, rose a record 16% in August, a month when they usually fall. [1]
   • The big exporting countries together will grow much less corn and wheat than last year.
   • It is the biggest fall by volume since 1993/94. [1]
   • The world is also forecast to use more wheat than it grows this season. [1]
   • In America, the corn left over at the end of the season is forecast at 9.7% of a year's use, the lowest share since 2020/21. [2]
   • One cause is land.
   • Since 2000/01 the big exporters have more than doubled the area they harvest for soybeans and other oilseeds.
   • Their grain area grew by 5%. [1]
   • Brazil's crop agency, Conab, said on Tuesday that soybean planting will grow at its slowest pace in 20 years. [1]
   • Weaker profits, costly loans and fertiliser prices are holding farmers back. [1]
   • Brazil is also turning more of its corn into ethanol, a fuel made from crops.
   • The US agriculture department cut its forecast of Brazil's corn exports for that reason. [1][3]
   • El Nino, a warming of the Pacific that shifts rain around the world, cut India's monsoon rain about 15% below normal by mid-September. [2]
   • Kenya is heading for its smallest corn crop since 2000/01, after its driest June and July since 1980. [2]
   • In the US, the share of the lower 48 states in drought rose from 46% to 59% in the six weeks to 1 September. [4]

   Who is involved

   • The US Department of Agriculture the US government's farm department; its monthly world crop estimates set the numbers traders use
   • Conab Brazil's national crop agency; on 15 September it forecast the slowest growth in soybean planting in 20 years
   • Karen Braun chief market analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, a US farm trading firm; she set out the world shortfall in a Reuters column
   • Russia and Ukraine two of the world's biggest wheat sellers; their combined wheat stocks are at a 33-year high while the war slows shipping [1]

   How it unfolded

   1. 2000/01 to now oilseed land among big exporters more than doubles, grain land grows 5% [1]
   2. August Chicago corn prices rise a record 16% [1]
   3. 11 September the US agriculture department forecasts the world's widest corn gap in over 30 years [1][3]
   4. 15 September Brazil's crop agency forecasts the slowest soybean planting growth in 20 years [1]
   5. 9 October the next US corn yield forecast is due [2]

   Why it matters

   Watch the US corn estimate due on 9 October, and the rain in Mato Grosso as Brazil plants its soybeans. [1][2]

   The truth

   • What is really going on America is harvesting its second-largest corn crop ever, and the world is still forecast to run short of corn and wheat this season. [1]Farmers in the big exporting countries have spent 25 years giving their new land to soybeans and other oilseeds, and this year heat, drought and El Nino cut grain harvests in India, Kenya and the US Plains. [1][2]
   • Why it works on people A record-sized American harvest in the headlines makes a world shortage hard to believe, because people judge supply by the biggest number they see.
   • Who gains American corn farmers — The US agriculture department raised its forecast of the average corn price they receive by 30 cents, to $4.80 a bushel. [3]
   • Who pays Farmers who feed corn to animals in the US — The US agriculture department cut the corn going to animal feed by 150 million bushels, because there is less to go round. [3]
   • Who pays Brazil's soybean farmers — Weaker profits, costly loans and fertiliser prices are slowing their planting. [1]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How badly El Nino will hit Brazil's soybeans.

     Brazil's crop agency still forecasts a record crop, while Karen Braun warns the El Nino threatens Mato Grosso, the biggest soybean state. [1] Planting has barely started, so nobody can know yet.

   • Nobody knows yet

     How big the US corn crop really is.

     Only 5% of it had been harvested by 6 September, and the next yield estimate is due on 9 October. [2]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Russia's and Ukraine's wheat can reach buyers.

     Their combined wheat stocks are at a 33-year high, but the war keeps disrupting shipping on the Black Sea. [1] The US agriculture department cut both countries' exports after weak August shipments. [3]

1. 02

   Trump and Xi meet on 24 September

   What happened

   • US President Donald Trump will host China's leader Xi Jinping in Washington on 24 September, their second meeting this year. [5]
   • The US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said there would be announcements on agriculture. [5]
   • A tariff pause agreed last October runs out on 10 November. [5]
   • The easiest way for China to cut tariffs on $30 billion of goods would be to cut its duties on American farm products. [5]

   Why it matters

   Trump wants farm sales he can announce before the US midterm elections in November. [5]

   American farmers have just started bringing in their corn. [1]

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether China buys American farm goods at the 24 September summit.

     The US trade representative promised announcements on agriculture, but nobody has named a crop or an amount. [5]

1. 03

   US plan to sell more ethanol abroad

   What happened

   • The US Department of Agriculture published a plan on 16 September to sell more American biofuels abroad. [6]
   • Ethanol is a fuel the US makes mostly from corn, and it is mixed into petrol.
   • American ethanol exports reached a record 2.2 billion gallons in 2025, worth $4.7 billion. [6]
   • The department says the plan will remove limits on American biofuels abroad and find new markets for them. [6]

   Why it matters

   Corn made into fuel does not feed animals or people.

   The plan lands in a season when the world is forecast to be short of corn. [1]

   How it works

   Why soybeans took the land that wheat used to get

   A field grows one main crop a season, and for 25 years soybeans paid better, so exporting countries gave their new land to soybeans, not grain.

   The twist

   The world is short of corn and wheat partly because of soybeans. For 25 years farmers gave most of their new land to soybeans and other oilseeds, because those paid better.

   Step by step

   1. 1 A field can grow only one main crop in a season
   2. 2 A farmer plants the crop expected to pay more
   3. 3 For 25 years soybeans and other oilseeds paid well, so most new farmland went to them
   4. 4 Grain land barely grew, so grain supply relied on each field growing more
   5. 5 When a bad year cuts grain harvests, there is no spare grain land to make it up

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Benin turns its cotton into clothes

     A Benin farmer gives three acres to cotton and four to corn. Cotton pays 300 francs a kilo and corn 120, so cotton keeps its share of his land.

   • US plan to sell more ethanol abroad

     The same choice happens after harvest. Corn sold to a fuel plant is corn that no animal eats, and the US government wants to sell more of it as fuel.

   • Irrigation spares land and its carbon

     Watered fields grow more on each acre. Without the water, farms would need more land, and it would come from forests and grassland.

   Where you've seen this

   Land near cities

   a plot becomes houses or stays a farm, depending on which pays the owner more

   Shop shelves

   a supermarket gives more shelf to what sells, so something else gets less space

   Television schedules

   an hour given to one show is an hour taken from another

   The catch

   Less land does not always mean less food. Farmers now get far more grain from each acre, and that carried most of the growth in grain while grain land hardly changed.

   And the whole of it

   Nobody decides how much wheat the world grows. Millions of farmers each choose a crop for their own field, and the world's supply is what those choices add up to. A family paying more for bread next year will be paying for choices made in fields it has never seen.

   The truth

   • Who gains US ethanol makers — The government's new plan aims to remove limits on American biofuels abroad, after record ethanol exports of $4.7 billion in 2025. [6]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What the US biofuels trade plan actually asks other countries to do.

     The department's announcement names no countries, targets or dates; they are in a report we did not read. [6]

1. 04

   UK grocery prices up 2.3%

   What happened

   • UK grocery prices were 2.3% higher in the four weeks to 6 September than a year earlier, the market researcher Worldpanel said. [10]
   • Shoppers spent 2.0% more, which means they bought slightly less food once higher prices are counted. [9]
   • Marks and Spencer, Ocado and the discount chain Lidl grew fastest. [9]
   • Tesco, the biggest chain, lost market share for the fourth report in a row. [9]

   Why it matters

   Official figures showed UK food inflation at 1.3% in July, the lowest since August 2024. [11]

   Intense competition between supermarkets and long energy contracts have kept prices down so far. [11]

   The truth

   • Who gains Marks and Spencer, Ocado and Lidl — Their grocery sales grew 14.8%, 13.3% and 8.0% while UK shoppers bought slightly less food overall. [9]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether UK food inflation really climbs to 5.6-6.6% in 2027.

     Official UK food and drink inflation was 1.3% in July. [11] Worldpanel's count of grocery prices was 2.3% in early September. [10] The forecasts come from two industry bodies, the Institute of Grocery Distribution and the Food and Drink Federation, and their numbers echo each other. [10]

2. 05

   UK food inflation could reach 6.6% in 2027

   What happened

   • The Institute of Grocery Distribution, the UK grocery industry's research body, forecast food inflation of 2.9% to 3.9% for 2026. [10]
   • It expects 5.6% to 6.6% in 2027 and 5.3% to 6.3% in 2028. [10]
   • It blames energy prices and extreme weather, including an El Nino it calls extremely severe. [10]
   • Fruit and vegetables are expected to rise most, because they grow fast and are hurt quickly by weather. [10]

   Why it matters

   The Bank of England worries that dearer food makes people expect all prices to keep climbing. [10]

   The group's numbers are close to a forecast the Food and Drink Federation, which speaks for food manufacturers, published earlier this month. [10]

   The truth

   • Who pays UK households — The grocery industry's research body expects food inflation of 5.6% to 6.6% in 2027, with fruit and vegetables rising most. [10]
3. 06

   US grocery prices flat in August

   What happened

   • US grocery prices did not change in August, the US Labor Department said. [13]
   • Fruit and vegetables fell 0.4%.
   • Lettuce was 6.2% cheaper because of an outbreak of cyclospora, a stomach parasite. [13]
   • Egg prices rose 2.9%, and dairy cost more. [13]
   • Food prices overall were 2.7% higher than a year before. [13]

   Why it matters

   Average hourly pay, once rising prices are taken off, fell 0.3% over the year to August. [13]

   So US households are paying 2.7% more for food with pay that buys less. [13]

   The truth

   • Who pays US workers — Their average hourly pay, once rising prices are taken off, fell 0.3% over the year to August. [13]
4. 07

   Fuel costs keep fishing boats in port

   What happened

   • France will keep paying fuel help to farmers and fishermen until the end of the year, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's office said on 16 September. [14]
   • Fishermen will get 35 cents a litre, up from 25.
   • Farmers keep 15 cents, now folded into France's drought response. [14]
   • In the Philippines, fishermen have docked their boats because they cannot afford fuel. [15]
   • Oil prices have climbed towards $110 a barrel since the war with Iran began. [15]

   Why it matters

   Tractors and fishing boats run on diesel.

   France is paying part of that fuel bill, and in the Philippines some fishermen have stopped going out. [14][15]

   The truth

   • Who gains French fishermen — Their fuel help rises from 25 to 35 cents a litre until the end of the year. [14]
   • Who pays Fishermen in the Philippines — Some have docked their boats because they cannot afford fuel. [15]
5. 08

   Benin turns its cotton into clothes

   What happened

   • Benin, in West Africa, is Africa's biggest cotton grower. [7]
   • Until 2020 it sent almost all of its raw cotton to Bangladesh, and since then its government has pushed to make finished goods at home. [7]
   • A factory zone near Cotonou now turns about 40,000 tons of Benin's cotton into 7 to 10 million garments a year. [7]
   • At least 183,746 growers in 2,206 village groups supply the cotton. [7]

   Why it matters

   The farmers are paid a price set by the authorities, about 300 West African francs a kilo, against 120 for corn. [7]

   One grower plants three acres of cotton and four of corn, and says cotton is more profitable. [7]

   How it works

   A Benin farmer gives three acres to cotton and four to corn. Cotton pays 300 francs a kilo and corn 120, so cotton keeps its share of his land.

   The idea, in story 03: Why soybeans took the land that wheat used to get →

   The truth

   • Who gains Benin's cotton farmers and weavers — Cotton has a buyer at a set price of about 300 francs a kilo, against 120 for corn. [7] A weaver named Chabi Bake earns about $545 a month. [7]

   Good news

   • Toussaint Bapetem grows cotton near Benin's border with Nigeria. Since 2024 his cotton money has paid off a debt of 500,000 francs, about $885, and kept his children in school.
   • Chabi Bake weaves Benin's own cotton into cloth for about $545 a month, and she has started building a house for her five children.
6. 09

   Irrigation spares land and its carbon

   What happened

   • Researchers at Colorado State University asked what would happen if US farms stopped irrigating. [8]
   • Watered fields grow more, so farms without water would need more land.
   • Clearing that land would release about 6.86 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases. [8]
   • That is about 363 years of the emissions US irrigation makes now, mostly from pumps. [8]
   • The study was published on 14 September in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a US science journal. [8]

   Why it matters

   Farming and clearing land for food, fibre and fuel cause nearly a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases. [8]

   The authors say the western US also needs that water for towns and nature, and their study does not weigh those uses. [8]

   How it works

   Watered fields grow more on each acre. Without the water, farms would need more land, and it would come from forests and grassland.

   The idea, in story 03: Why soybeans took the land that wheat used to get →
7. 10

   Cow embryo cells grow into mini muscle

   What happened

   • Scientists at the European Molecular Biology Laboratory in Barcelona grew tiny pieces of tissue from cow embryo stem cells. [16]
   • Stem cells can become many kinds of cell. [16]
   • The pieces held muscle, nerve and blood-vessel cells, and they arranged themselves without being assembled. [16]
   • Meat grown from cells usually starts from adult cow cells, which stop dividing sooner. [16]

   Why it matters

   The pieces are tiny and the liquid the cells grow in is very expensive, so the researchers say a steak made this way is not affordable yet. [16]

   The method may help scientists learn how muscle forms. [16]

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether steak grown from cow embryo cells can ever be made at a price people pay.

     The researchers grew only tiny pieces, and the liquid the cells grow in is too expensive for food production today. [16]

   Good news

   • Scientists in Barcelona grew cow embryo cells into tiny pieces of tissue that formed their own muscle, nerve and blood-vessel cells.
8. 11

   Engineered microbes to protect soybeans

   What happened

   • Robigo Bio, a company in Cambridge, Massachusetts, raised new money in a round led by Leaps by Bayer, the investment arm of the German seed and farm-chemical company. [18]
   • Robigo engineers microbes that are coated onto seeds and make chemicals that fight plant disease all season. [18]
   • Its first product, aimed at a soybean disease called sudden death syndrome, is due in 2028. [18]
   • The company says its early field trials worked as well as chemical sprays and cost half as much to use. [18]

   Why it matters

   The disease it targets costs US soybean farmers an estimated $200 million to $500 million a year. [18]

   The trial results come from the company itself. [18]

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Robigo's disease-fighting microbes work outside its own trials.

     The claim that they match chemical sprays at half the cost comes from the company's own early data. [18]

9. 12

   Gene-editing start-up raises $1.62m

   What happened

   • Spearhead Bio, a spin-out from a plant science centre in St.
   • Louis, raised $1.62 million from investors. [17]
   • CRISPR, the gene-editing tool, is good at cutting DNA but bad at adding large new pieces in the right place. [17]
   • Spearhead pairs it with genes that move around by themselves, to insert large pieces of DNA where it wants them. [17]

   Why it matters

   Its founders say this could save seed companies years of work on each new trait. [17]

   They say a new trait can cost an extra three years and $80 million to approve, and some of their edits may qualify for a shorter route. [17]