Finance News · Friday, 11 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Europe's central bank raised rates to 2.5%. Oil had just passed $100 again, and it lifted its growth forecast anyway.

The European Central Bank raised its main rate a quarter point on Thursday, blaming an oil price the Iran war has pushed above $100 a barrel. In the same statement it said the euro zone will grow faster this year than it expected in June.

2.5%

the European Central Bank's main rate, after Thursday's quarter-point rise

it was 2.25% after the June meeting and unchanged in July [2][6]

3.3%

euro-zone inflation in August, against the bank's 2% target

energy prices alone were 14.3% higher than a year earlier [6]

$105.30

a barrel of Brent crude oil on Thursday, up more than 4% in a day

it was $87.16 a month ago and $67.91 a year ago [1][26]

0.9%

euro-zone growth the bank now expects in 2026, raised from 0.8% in June

it lifted its inflation forecast to 3.0% in the same statement [3]

The lead story — what happened

The European Central Bank, which sets interest rates for the 21 countries that use the euro, raised its main rate by a quarter point to 2.5% on Thursday. [1][2]
It was the second rise this year. The bank raised rates in June for the first time since 2023 and then held them in July. [2][6]
Euro-zone inflation was 3.3% in August, against a 2% target, and energy prices alone were 14.3% higher than a year earlier. [6]
Christine Lagarde, the bank's president, called the decision a no brainer and said inflation will last longer than she and her colleagues had expected. [3][8]
The bank now expects inflation to average 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027. It also raised its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9%, from 0.8% in June. [3]
The meeting was held in Berlin rather than at the bank's headquarters in Frankfurt. [2]
The euro fell 0.3% to about $1.159, and Germany's two-year government borrowing rate rose to about 3.072%. [1]
Europe's STOXX 600 share index was down 0.7% after the decision. [1]
Oil rose more than 4% the same day to $105.30 a barrel and traded above $107 later. The war has closed most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. [1][20][18]
A rate rise makes borrowing dearer, so people and companies buy less. It cannot put more oil on a ship. [2][52]
Rates markets now price three more quarter-point rises from the bank by the middle of next year. [8]
Not everyone agrees. David Rees of the fund manager Schroders said the bar for more tightening is high and this looks more like a final rise. [1]

Who is involved

Christine Lagarde

president of the European Central Bank, which sets interest rates for the 21 countries using the euro; she called Thursday's rise a no brainer
Kevin Warsh

chairman of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank; he has stopped telling markets in advance what he will do, and decides on rates next Wednesday
Scott Bessent

the US treasury secretary, who manages government borrowing; his bond buyback bought less than its limit on Thursday and borrowing costs rose
OPEC

the group of oil-producing countries that set output quotas between them; it cut its forecast for this year's oil demand for the fifth time running

How it unfolded

February the United States and Israel attack Iran, and global energy prices start climbing [4]
11 June the European Central Bank raises rates for the first time since 2023, to 2.25% [6]
23 July it holds rates and says it is watching the conflict [6]
Wednesday Brent crude passes $100 a barrel for the first time since July [7]
Thursday the bank raises to 2.5%, and US wholesale prices come in at 5.4% for the year [1][9]
Friday US consumer price figures for August are published [15]

Where this points

Watch the US consumer price figures on Friday: governor Christopher Waller has said he would consider voting for a rise if inflation comes in hot, and the forecast for the month, leaving out food and energy, is 0.2%. [16][15]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

The oil price High↑

Brent passed $105 after the biggest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began [1], and American petrol is 32% dearer than a year ago at $4.22 a gallon [18]

Government borrowing costs High↑

the US ten-year rate reached 4.95%, its highest since 2023 [21], and long British government borrowing costs are the highest in nearly 30 years [8]

Households cutting back Building↑

1-800-Flowers sold 12.9% less in its quarter as shoppers held back [39], and the US government shelved a copper tariff because it would raise prices before November's elections [29]

Central banks turning tougher Building↑

traders put a 70% chance on a US rise next Wednesday after wholesale prices climbed [13], and Japan's central bank is expected to raise to 1.25% at its meeting next week [5]

Doubt about the AI share boom Building↑

Capital Economics said most of its bubble gauges now suggest the AI share boom is nearing an end [43], on a day Oracle's cloud infrastructure sales more than doubled to $7.4bn [32]

The rest of the day

31 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Oil passes $105 as tankers are hit

Brent crude, the price of a barrel of oil traded internationally, jumped more than 4% on Thursday to $105.30, and traded above $107 later in the day. [1][20] The rise followed the biggest wave of attacks on shipping since the war between the United States and Iran began in February. [23] The United States destroyed five Iranian tankers on Tuesday, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that carried a fifth of the world's oil before the war, has largely stopped. [18] Oil was $87.16 a month ago and $67.91 a year ago. [26]

Why it matters — Oil sets the cost of moving everything else, so this is the number behind Thursday's rate rise in Europe and the bets on an American one next week. [1][13]
03
US wholesale prices climb 5.4%

The producer price index measures what American companies charge each other, before anything reaches a shop. It rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% over twelve months, up from 4.8% in July and from a 0.1% monthly rise the month before. [9][11][12] Energy prices alone rose 4.2% in the month, after falling for two months. [9] Prices for transport, warehousing, hospital care and airfares all jumped. [14] Leaving out food and energy, the monthly rise was 0.2%, below the 0.3% economists had forecast. [10]

Why it matters — This is the first of two inflation readings that decide next Wednesday's US rate meeting, and it pushed the odds of a rise above 70%. [13][14]
04
Bets on a US rate rise jump past 70%

Traders raised the chance they put on the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, lifting rates next Wednesday. The figure moved from about 60% in the morning to more than 70% after the wholesale price report, and one reading reached 73%. [19][14][15] The US rate has sat between 3.50% and 3.75% since December. [14] A majority of the economists polled by Reuters still expect no rise this year. [23][24]

Why it matters — Traders and economists are reading the same figures days before the meeting and reaching opposite answers. [14][23]
05
Bond yields reach multi-decade highs

Governments borrow by selling bonds, and the yield is what they have to pay to find buyers. The US ten-year rate climbed above 4.9% on Thursday, its highest since October 2023, and hit 4.95% after a government buyback. [20][21] The thirty-year US rate is the highest since 2007, long British rates the highest in nearly 30 years, and long French rates the highest in more than twenty. [8] The two-year US rate rose 15 hundredths of a point in one day. [8]

Why it matters — Mortgage rates and company loan rates follow these numbers, so this is where a war's oil price reaches an ordinary borrower. [22]
06
Treasury buyback stops short of its limit

The US Treasury said it would buy back up to $6bn of its own longer-dated bonds on Thursday, a move meant to support their price and hold borrowing costs down. It bought $5.19bn, short of the maximum, and yields rose further afterwards. [21] Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, had raised the programme from $4bn last month, but banks had expected about $8bn. [22] He said the sell-off does not reflect what he called underlying market fundamentals. [22]

Why it matters — Bessent is trying to lower his own government's borrowing cost, and the market has moved the other way twice this week. [21][22]
07
Trump promises $5,000 to every adult

President Donald Trump told his party's convention on Wednesday that his administration would pay every adult American citizen $5,000 if Republicans win control of both houses of Congress in November. [31][8] Economists told CNBC the payment is unlikely to happen and would push prices up if it did. Brian Bethune of Boston College said it makes no economic sense, because adding spending to a supply shortage makes the shortage worse. [31] Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis put the inflation caused by pandemic-era payments at about 2.6 percentage points. [31]

Why it matters — It arrives while the same government is shelving a copper tax to show it is lowering costs, and bond investors read the promise as more borrowing to come. [29][20]
08
Copper tariff shelved over prices

The US government has not decided whether to tax imports of refined copper, two people told Reuters, because dearer copper would raise costs for carmakers, builders and electrical manufacturers. [29] The country imports about half the copper it uses and has two working smelters. [29] Copper prices are at record highs because buyers have been stockpiling ahead of a tax that may never arrive, which is also keeping metal out of markets elsewhere. [29] Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick was asked to recommend by June whether to impose 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. [29]

Why it matters — A tax meant to rebuild American mining collides with a promise to lower the cost of living, eight weeks before an election. [29]
09
Gold falls as rate bets rise

Spot gold fell 0.9% to $4,359.19 an ounce on Thursday and US gold futures fell 1.3%. [23] Silver dropped 4% to $64.56, platinum 4.6% and palladium 3.9%. [23] Gold pays no interest, so when the return on safe lending rises, holding gold costs more. Earlier the same day gold had been up 0.3%, before the wholesale price figures landed. [24] One gauge put the spot price at $4,340.99 at 9am in New York. [25]

Why it matters — Gold usually rises on an inflation scare. It fell on this one, because the scare made a rate rise more likely. [23]
10
Oracle's cloud sales more than double

Oracle, an American company that sells business software and rents out computing power, said revenue grew 30% in the quarter to 31 August. Sales of cloud infrastructure more than doubled to $7.4bn and net income reached $4.68bn. [32] Its shares rose 7% after hours, though they are still down 22% this year. [32] The company spent $55.66bn on buildings and equipment in its last financial year and expects that to approach $70bn in this one. [33]

Why it matters — Oracle is borrowing to build data centres, which puts it in the queue for the same savings governments are bidding for. [33][8]
11
Adobe beats forecasts on AI sales

Adobe, the American company behind Photoshop, beat revenue expectations for its third quarter. Revenue from its newest AI products grew more than 150% on the year. [34] The company named Anil Chakravarthy as its next chief executive last week; Shantanu Narayen, who has led it since 2007, becomes executive chair on 1 December. [34] Its finance chief left in June, and the head of its creative business steps down on 27 September. [34]

Why it matters — Adobe and Oracle both reported strong AI demand on the day one research firm said the AI share boom is near its end. [32][43]
12
OPEC cuts its demand forecast again

OPEC, the group of oil-producing countries that set output quotas between them, cut its forecast for how much more oil the world will use in 2026 to an extra 380,000 barrels a day. [27] It was the fifth cut in a row. The group still expects more consumption than the International Energy Agency, which now thinks demand will fall outright this year. [27] OPEC raised its 2027 forecast in the same report. [27]

Why it matters — OPEC's figures are the most optimistic in the industry, and even they now show the world adding less oil use than the group expected in the spring. [27]
13
European gas at a four-year high

The benchmark European gas price, the Dutch TTF contract, is at its highest since the end of 2022, trading around 79.21 euros a megawatt-hour after passing 80 the day before. [28] European storage tanks are about 67% full, against a five-year average of 84% at this point in the year. [28] Asian buyers are paying more for shipped gas, which makes it harder for Europe to attract cargoes before winter. [28]

Why it matters — Europe goes into the heating season with less gas in store than usual, and that is the other half of the inflation its central bank raised rates against. [28][1]
14
American fuel prices set records

The average price of a gallon of petrol in the United States is $4.22, about 32% higher than a year ago. [18] Diesel reached an all-time high of $5.94 a gallon and has kept climbing since. [18] Diesel matters more than its share of sales suggests, because it powers the lorries and trains that move nearly everything else. Brian Jacobsen of Annex Wealth Management said diesel is driving wholesale inflation with no sign of slowing. [17]

Why it matters — Petrol and diesel reach a household before anything else does, and a higher interest rate does not make either cheaper. [18]
15
A flower seller's sales fall 13%

1-800-Flowers, an American flowers and gifts retailer, reported fourth-quarter revenue of $293.1m, down 12.9% on the year, and a wider loss than analysts had expected. [39] The number of orders it took across the full year fell 17.6%. The company said shoppers stayed cautious about spending on things they do not need, and it is weighing asset sales to fund a turnaround. Its shares fell about 15% before the opening bell to $2.98. [39]

Why it matters — The company blames caution about spending on things people do not need, and it took 17.6% fewer orders across the year. [39]
16
Primark's owner warns on sales

Associated British Foods said sales at Primark, its cheap clothing chain, are expected to be 3% lower in the quarter ending 12 September than a year earlier, comparing the same stores. [7] Its shares fell 8.6% in London on Thursday, the sharpest fall of the session. [7] Primark is one of Europe's biggest clothing retailers and sells mainly to households on tight budgets.

Why it matters — Primark sells to households with little spare money, and their fuel bills went up before their clothes budget did. [7]
17
Copart's profit falls as volumes drop

Copart, an American company that auctions damaged and salvaged vehicles, reported quarterly revenue of $1.15bn, up 2.4%, but net income fell 17.4% to $327.4m. [40] The number of vehicles it sold fell 2.9% in the quarter and 5.5% over the year, which the company put down to fewer insurance claims being made, while the price per vehicle rose 5.4%. [40] The company announced an all-cash deal to buy ACV Auctions, and its shares rose 8.59% after hours to $33.39. [40]

Why it matters — Copart charged 5.4% more per car and sold 2.9% fewer of them, and its profit still fell 17.4%. Higher prices did not cover the missing volume. [40]
18
Nasdaq puts $100m into Kraken's parent

Nasdaq, which runs one of the largest stock exchanges in the United States, said its venture arm will invest $100m in Payward, the parent company of the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. [35] The two plan to launch Nasdaq Equity Tokens in the second quarter of 2027, so that shares can be traded and settled outside normal market hours. Just after the announcement, Nasdaq won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to let certain shares trade in tokenised form. [35]

Why it matters — An established exchange is buying a stake in the kind of platform that competes with it, rather than waiting to be competed with. [35]
19
Coinbase takes stablecoins to small banks

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is partnering with the payments firm Moov so that community banks and credit unions can accept and settle stablecoins, which are digital tokens meant to hold a fixed value in dollars. [36] Moov already serves more than 1,000 such institutions. The deal lands days before a US Senate vote on the Clarity Act, a bill that would split oversight of digital assets between two regulators. [36] Banks have opposed it, warning that interest-like rewards on crypto exchanges would drain their deposits. [36]

Why it matters — Coinbase is offering the banks a share of the business they are fighting, a week before the vote that settles it. [36][37]
20
Kalshi wants perpetual futures on shares

Kalshi, an American prediction-market platform, plans to ask regulators for permission to offer the country's first regulated perpetual futures tied to single shares, including Tesla, Apple and Nvidia, people familiar with the plan told the Wall Street Journal. [38] A perpetual future is a bet on a price that never expires, with a fee paid to keep the position open. The trades have grown quickly outside the United States this year. [38]

Why it matters — A product built offshore is being brought inside American rules while the US Senate is still arguing about what those rules are. [38][37]
21
Apple's folding phone lands below expectations

Apple unveiled the iPhone Duo on Wednesday, a passport-sized phone that opens into a 7.6-inch screen, starting at $1,999 and on sale from 23 October. [42] Analysts had expected $2,300 to $2,500; Erik Woodring of Morgan Stanley said Apple is prioritising adoption over near-term profit. [41] Apple shares rose 3.5% on Thursday, breaking a long pattern of falling the day after a launch. [8][41] The iPhone 18 Pro models cost $100 more than last year, which Apple linked to dearer components. [42]

Why it matters — Apple rose 3.5% on a day when nine of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500 fell. [8]
22
A bullish firm says the AI boom is near its end

Capital Economics, a research firm that has been more optimistic than most about AI shares since 2023, said most of the eight gauges it uses to spot a late-stage bubble now point to one. [43] Expected earnings growth for the S&P 500 is at levels last seen at the peak of the dot-com boom, and the index's concentration in a few big companies is at similar extremes. [43] Foreign ownership of American shares is at a record high. [43]

Why it matters — The warning comes from the firm whose year-end forecast for the index has been above the consensus all year. [43]
23
An old market rule stops confirming

The Dow Theory, an investing rule from the late 1800s, holds that a rise in industrial shares can only be trusted if transport shares rise too. [44] Over the last three months the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 3% while the Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen nearly 8%. [44] Paul Ciana of Bank of America said the loss of confirmation removes a condition that supported the market all year, and that trading volume in Norfolk Southern, FedEx and Union Pacific has fallen since May. [44]

Why it matters — Railways and trucking firms buy diesel by the tanker, and diesel is at a record high. [18] A rule written in the 1800s is picking up this year's oil bill. [44]
24
Shell swaps one power plant for another

Shell's North American arm agreed to sell its stake in RISEC Holdings, which owns a 609-megawatt gas-fired power station in Rhode Island, to Constellation Energy for $715m. [45] Separately it will buy all of Hunlock Creek Generating, a 169-megawatt gas plant in Pennsylvania. Andrew Smith, Shell's president of trading and supply, said the company invests selectively and sells when conditions are attractive. Both deals need regulatory approval and should close in the first quarter of 2027. [45]

Why it matters — Shell is swapping a New England power station for a Pennsylvania one while gas prices climb in Europe and Asia. [45][28]
25
Circle8 confirms an approach for SThree

Circle8 Group, a staffing company listed on Nasdaq, confirmed it has made a proposal to buy SThree, a London-listed recruiter that places people in science, engineering and technology jobs. [46] SThree had gross revenue of about 1.3bn pounds in its 2025 financial year, and Circle8 said the combined business could approach $3bn. [46] Circle8 said the deal is structured to be financed without issuing new shares, so existing holders would not be diluted. Talks are at an early stage. [46]

Why it matters — Circle8 says existing shareholders will not be diluted, which means the money comes from cash or borrowing rather than from new shares. [46]
26
Hong Kong court convicts the Journal's publisher

A Hong Kong court convicted Dow Jones Publishing (Asia), the publisher of the Wall Street Journal, of deterring a reporter from taking up a trade union role. [47] Selina Cheng, who chairs the Hong Kong Journalists Association, lost her job in July 2024 and brought the private prosecution herself; she said senior editors asked her to cut ties with the union. [48] The court cleared the company of dismissing her over the role. Each charge carried a maximum fine of 100,000 Hong Kong dollars, about $12,750. [47]

Why it matters — The conviction lands on the company that owns the Journal and Dow Jones Newswires, one of the main suppliers of market information. [47][48]
27
Sinclair raises its political advertising guidance

Sinclair, an American broadcaster that owns local television stations, raised its guidance for political advertising to at least $375m for the 2025-2026 election cycle. [49] Chief executive Chris Ripley said the US communications regulator's repeal of a 39% ownership cap, and a court decision striking down a rule limiting ownership of top-four stations, have produced the best regulatory setting for broadcast in years. [49] The company has cut debt by $320m since the start of 2025, while ordinary advertising stays under pressure. [49]

Why it matters — Sinclair's own forecast is one count of how much money is about to be spent on November's elections. [49]
28
Oakley Capital trades a third below its own value

Oakley Capital Investments is a London-listed company that buys stakes in private businesses. It said the value of its holdings rose 6% in the first half of 2026, to 1.29bn pounds or 782 pence a share, up from 738 pence at the start of the year. [50] Its own shares still trade about 33% below that figure, against a long-run average gap of about 20%. [50] Management pointed to AI-related activity across its holdings. [50]

Why it matters — Oakley's holdings gained 6% while its own shares stayed a third below what those holdings are worth, a gap 13 points wider than its long-run average. [50]
29
WISeKey shareholders vote to move to the Caribbean

Shareholders in WISeKey, a Swiss cybersecurity company listed in Zurich and New York, approved moving the group's holding company from Switzerland to the British Virgin Islands. [51] The move is structured as a merger with a wholly owned subsidiary, agreed in June, and still needs its closing conditions met. Chairman Carlos Moreira said the new structure is designed to support access to global capital markets. [51]

Why it matters — The vote decides which country's courts and company rules apply to everyone who owns a share in it. [51]
30
California power bills run 89% above the US average

Residential electricity in California costs about 89% more than the American average and has risen nearly 9% in a year, CNBC reported from Los Altos during a heat alert with temperatures at 36C. [52] The local utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, asked small businesses to cut their usage. Electricity, water and fuel together account for roughly 10% of total household spending in the United States. [52]

Why it matters — Electricity, water and fuel are the bills a household pays before anything else, and in California the power bill alone is up nearly 9% in a year. [52]
31
The dollar stays soft while US rates rise

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of others, slipped 0.1% to 98.738 early on Thursday before recovering during the day. [53][8] Chris Turner of ING said the dollar remains soft despite higher energy prices and firm short-term American interest rates. [53] Scott Bessent has pressed for a weaker dollar and worked with Japan's government to buy yen over the summer, telling traders this week that he has information they do not. [54][55]

Why it matters — A currency normally rises when its interest rates do. The US treasury secretary wants the dollar lower, and a rate rise next Wednesday would push the other way. [54]
32
Toronto's exchange says it is two years early

TMX Group, which runs the Toronto Stock Exchange, told a Scotiabank conference that first-half organic revenue reached C$975m, putting it on course to reach a C$2bn target by 2027, about two years ahead of plan. [56] It has announced roughly C$2bn of acquisitions, including Cboe Australia and pending deals for CDS Canada and MEMX Group. About 300 companies have listed there so far this year, with a pipeline of more than 2,000. [56]

Why it matters — An exchange's queue counts the companies that still want to raise money, and TMX says more than 2,000 are in it. [56]

02 Lesson why it matters

When fuel costs more, the clothes shop finds out first

A household cannot buy less petrol this month, so when petrol costs more the money comes out of whatever can wait.

The twist

A jump in the oil price does not show up as people buying less fuel. On Thursday it showed up as Primark warning that its sales are down 3%, and its owner losing 8.6% of its value in a morning.

How it works

War stops tankers, so fuel and heating cost more
A household cannot buy less heating this month
So the same wage buys the same fuel and less of everything else
The cut falls on what can wait: clothes, flowers, a new car
Those shops report weaker sales, and their share prices drop

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

Primark's owner warns on sales

the step is a household cutting the purchase it can postpone: clothing sales down 3%, and the shares fell 8.6% the same morning
A flower seller's sales fall 13%

the same step one rung further down, because a gift is easier to skip than a coat: 1-800-Flowers took 17.6% fewer orders over the year
Copper tariff shelved over prices

the US government hit the same limit from the other side and dropped a tax that would have raised the price of wiring and cars
OPEC cuts its demand forecast again

the same squeeze counted in barrels, as OPEC lowers how much oil it thinks the world will burn for the fifth month running

Where you've seen this

A rent rise

the rent gets paid first, so the saving comes out of holidays and takeaways

School uniforms in September

a family that must buy the uniform buys fewer shoes in October

A hospital's budget

heating and wages are fixed, so the cut lands on new equipment

The catch

It holds only while the dear thing cannot be skipped. Give people long enough and they do drive less, move closer to work or buy a smaller car, and then the cut lands on the fuel as well.

And the whole of it

A family fills the tank before it buys anything else, a shop cuts its orders when the tills go quiet, and a central bank raises rates because raising rates is the only thing it can do. None of them can see the whole chain, and it begins with tankers that cannot get through the Strait of Hormuz.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Three of the things that pushed prices up on Thursday were choices by the US government: it destroyed five Iranian tankers on Tuesday, its treasury secretary said another large bank will be cut off from the dollar on Monday, and the president promised every adult $5,000 if his party wins in November. [18][30][31] On the same day that government shelved a tax on imported copper, because the metal is already too dear before the election. [29]

Why it works on us — A single round number is easy to picture and a supply shortage is not, so a $5,000 cheque lands as help with prices even when economists say it would raise them. [31]

Who gains

European savers and pension funds — The rate the central bank pays banks went to 2.5%, and two-year German government debt now pays about 3.072%. [1]
Oil producers — Brent went from $87.16 a month ago to $105.30, and energy was the only one of eleven S&P 500 sectors to rise on Wednesday. [26][18]
Oracle — Its cloud infrastructure sales more than doubled to $7.4bn, and it holds $664bn of contracted work not yet delivered. [32]
Copper traders holding metal inside the United States — The unresolved tax has kept prices at record highs and stopped the metal flowing back out to other markets. [29]
Sinclair — It raised its political advertising guidance to at least $375m as spending on November's elections begins. [49]

Who pays

Associated British Foods shareholders — Primark's comparable sales are expected to fall 3%, and the shares lost 8.6% in a day. [7]
American drivers — Petrol is $4.22 a gallon, about 32% up on the year, and diesel hit an all-time high of $5.94. [18]
Anyone taking out an American mortgage this autumn — The ten-year government borrowing rate, which mortgage rates follow, reached 4.95%, its highest since 2023. [21][22]
European households heating their homes this winter — Gas storage is 67% full against an 84% average, and the benchmark price is the highest since the end of 2022. [28]
1-800-Flowers staff and shareholders — Quarterly revenue fell 12.9%, the company is weighing asset sales, and the shares fell about 15%. [39]
The US government — It bought back $5.19bn of its own bonds on Thursday and its thirty-year borrowing cost still reached the highest since 2007. [21][8]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

Whether the US central bank raises rates next Wednesday.

Traders put it at 70% after the wholesale price figures. A majority of the economists polled by Reuters expect no rise this year. Both groups are reading the same data. [14][24]
02

What Friday's US consumer price figure will show.

The forecast is 0.2% for the month, leaving out food and energy. Governor Christopher Waller has said he would consider voting for a rise if the figure comes in hot, and has not said what number counts as hot. [16][15]
03

How much the odds of a US rate rise really moved on Thursday.

Four figures were published for the same day - 60%, 68%, 70% and 73% - each read off futures prices at a different hour. [19][23][14][15]
04

Whether the European Central Bank is at the end of its rises or the start of a run.

Rates markets price three more quarter-point rises by the middle of next year, while David Rees of Schroders said the bar is high and this looks like a final one. [8][1]
05

Which bank will be sanctioned on Monday.

Scott Bessent named neither the institution nor the country it is in. [30]
06

Whether the copper tax happens at all.

Howard Lutnick's recommendation to the president has not been published, and the US government says no final decision has been made. [29]
07

How much August's wholesale prices actually tell the US central bank.

The statistics bureau changed how it prices portfolio management, legal services and software this month. Lou Crandall of Wrightson ICAP said there is less confidence than usual in translating the figures into the measure the bank targets. [9]
08

When oil comes down.

Trump said prices will not fall until after the 3 November elections and will then fall immediately. His advisers have privately said the war could run to the end of his term in 2029. [11][20]
09

Whether the Clarity Act passes the US Senate on 15 September.

It needs 60 votes, the ethics provisions are still being negotiated, and banks oppose it. Coinbase's chief executive says the industry gets clearer rules either way. [37][36]

04 Hope carry this

Selina Cheng lost her job at the Wall Street Journal in 2024 after refusing to give up the chair of Hong Kong's journalists' union. She brought a private prosecution herself, and on Thursday a Hong Kong court convicted her former employer.

Also true today

Europe's economy has held up better than its own central bank expected. The bank raised its forecast for growth this year to 0.9%, from the 0.8% it published in June.
Leave out food and energy and American wholesale prices rose 0.2% in August, less than the 0.3% economists had forecast.
Apple's first folding phone starts at $1,999, between $300 and $500 below what analysts had expected it to cost.