Finance News · Monday, 14 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Saudi Arabia's pipeline around Hormuz stays shut, the Gulf talks are postponed, and oil passes $107

Saudi Arabia's main way of shipping oil around the closed Strait of Hormuz has been shut since Friday, and a Monday meeting on the strait was postponed. Oil rose past $107 a barrel, two days before the US central bank is expected to raise rates.

of the world's oil, carried by the pipeline before it shut

about 4 million barrels a day went to the Red Sea port of Yanbu [1]

5 to 7 days

of exports Saudi Arabia can keep up from the oil stored at Yanbu

Yanbu can hold about 35 million barrels, and its tanks are not full [1]

$107.51

a barrel for Brent crude, the world's main oil price, early on Monday

up 2.77% after the weekend's attacks [5]

6.2m of 10.9m

barrels a day Saudi Arabia pumped in August, against February before the war

its oil supply is at a more than three-decade low, the International Energy Agency says [1]

The lead story — what happened

Oil rose more than 2% on Monday, and Brent crude, the world's main oil price, reached $107.51 a barrel. [5]
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, shut its East-West pipeline on Friday after drones launched from Iraq hit it on Thursday. [5][3]
The 1,200km pipeline carries oil across the country to the Red Sea coast, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely blocked during the war. [6][2][8]
Before it shut, the pipeline was carrying about 4 million barrels a day, roughly 4% of the world's oil, to the port of Yanbu. [1]
Three industry sources told Reuters that Yanbu holds enough stored oil for only five to seven days of exports. [1]
Saudi Arabia has not said how badly the pipeline is damaged. [1] One source said repairs could take five to six weeks, and another said pumping could partly restart sooner. [1]
Oman's foreign minister said Monday's meeting between Iran and the Gulf Arab states on the strait had been postponed in the interests of consensus. [2][6]
Iran's foreign minister said Iran will not reopen the strait until the United States meets its demands. [6]
Yemen's Houthis, an armed group allied with Iran, reached Perim island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a lane that has carried 4-5% of the world's oil in recent months. [5]
A ship was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and caught fire. [3] Iran said one person died aboard an Iranian commercial ship struck off its coast. [5]
US diesel reached a record of more than $6.20 a gallon on Sunday, about 65% higher than when the war began. [6][4]
World oil stocks have fallen by 507 million barrels since the war began, according to the International Energy Agency. [7]

Who is involved

Saudi Arabia

the world's biggest oil exporter; it shut its pipeline to the Red Sea on Friday and has not said when it reopens
Badr Albusaidi

Oman's foreign minister; he postponed Monday's meeting between Iran and the Gulf states on the strait
Abbas Araqchi

Iran's foreign minister; he says the strait stays shut until the US meets Iran's demands
The Houthis

an armed group in Yemen allied with Iran; they reached Perim island at the south end of the Red Sea

How it unfolded

28 Feb The US and Israel start the war on Iran, and traffic through Hormuz slows to a trickle [3]
July The Houthis declare a sea blockade of Saudi Arabia [2]
Thu Drones launched from Iraq hit the East-West pipeline [3]
Fri Saudi Arabia shuts the pipeline, and the Houthis reach Perim island [3][5]
Sun Oman postpones the Iran-Gulf meeting, and a ship is hit in Hormuz [6]
Mon Brent crude reaches $107.51 a barrel [5]

Where this points

Watch whether the pipeline restarts before the oil stored at Yanbu runs out, which three industry sources put at five to seven days of exports. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Moving oil costs more High↑

Brent crude, the world's main oil price, rose to $107.51 a barrel on Monday. [5] Rates on Middle East tanker routes are up close to 500% on a year earlier. [19] The seaport in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, is working with exporters on new routes to avoid the troubled straits. [20]

Borrowing getting dearer Building↑

Goldman Sachs now expects the US central bank to raise interest rates on Wednesday. [10] Markets see a 76% chance that Japan's central bank raises its rate on Friday. [11] The ten-year US government borrowing rate ended last week at 4.97%. [13]

Elections coming up Building↑

Donald Trump said the war with Iran will likely end right after the US midterm elections in November. [3] Polls suggest a US rate rise before that vote could add to voters' worries about living costs. [16] Britain's prime minister is reported to be waiting until after a by-election to decide on a gas field. [28]

Worries about AI companies Building↑

Futures on the Nasdaq 100, an index of big US tech shares, fell 1.2% as investors weighed warnings about AI safety. [18] OpenAI's chief, Sam Altman, said now would be an ill-advised moment to list the company's shares. [22]

The rest of the day

14 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Goldman Sachs now expects a US rate rise

Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest US investment banks, now expects the US central bank to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday. [10][11] It had previously forecast no change. [10] Traders put the chance of a rise at 86% after August's consumer prices came in hotter than expected. [11] It would be the first rise since mid-2023, from a rate now set at 3.5% to 3.75%. [11][17] JPMorgan's chief US economist expects a second rise in December. [11]

Why it matters — A rise makes borrowing dearer for households and companies. [17] The ten-year US government borrowing rate already ended last week at 4.97%, and 30-year US mortgage rates went above 7%. [13][31]
03
Trump says the US should pay the world's lowest rate

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that no country should have lower interest rates than the United States. [16] He spoke to reporters at his golf resort in Doonbeg, Ireland, three days before the US central bank decides. [16] He said he did not know whether it would raise rates, but that the US should pay the lowest rate whatever the inflation figures say. [16] Earlier this month he threatened to cut off all US trade with some countries if the US central bank did not cut rates. [13]

Why it matters — The US central bank meets weeks before the US midterm elections, and Reuters/Ipsos polls suggest a rate rise could add to voters' worries about the cost of living. [16] Trump's approval ratings have fallen as inflation has stayed high. [16]
04
Shares in Asia fall as oil climbs

Japan's Nikkei share index fell 1.7% on Monday, and South Korea's main index dropped 3.3%. [11] Futures on Wall Street, which let traders bet on where shares will open, pointed lower too. [11] Last week the Dow Jones index of big US companies fell 1.6%, its biggest weekly drop since March. [18] Investors were weighing dearer oil, a likely US rate rise and new worries about artificial intelligence. [18]

Why it matters — Higher government borrowing rates make the profits companies expect in future years worth less today. [13] Goldman Sachs's chief US share strategist looked at the last seven rounds of US rate rises. [11] Shares fell 2% on average in the first three months, then rose 9% in the 12 months after the first rise. [11]
05
The yen holds near a seven-month high

The Japanese yen traded at 153.49 to the US dollar on Monday, close to the seven-month high it touched last week. [14] It has gained about 4% this month. [14] In July a dollar bought almost 164 yen. [11] Markets see about a 76% chance that the Bank of Japan, the country's central bank, raises its rate to 1.25% on Friday. [11] The Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75% on Thursday, though the vote could be split, and Taiwan's central bank is expected to raise rates. [11][15]

Why it matters — Japanese workers got their biggest pay rise in almost three decades, part of the case for Japan's central bank to keep raising rates. [30] Analysts at TD Securities say that if it does not signal another rise, a dollar could again buy 157 to 160 yen. [14]
06
A tanker fund is up 3,600% this year

The Breakwave Tanker Shipping fund, which tracks what it costs to ship oil by tanker, is up about 3,600% this year to early September. [19] That makes it the best performer among US funds that do not use borrowed money to boost their bets, according to Morningstar data. [19] Rates on the Middle East tanker routes it follows are up close to 500% on a year earlier. [19] One trade adviser said companies are paying prices that may be 300% higher, because it is the only ship available. [19]

Why it matters — Ship owners are making record profits, and everyone who needs a cargo moved pays for it. [19] The same adviser said ships now on order will ease the shortage, but only in 18 to 36 months. [19]
07
Somalia's main port tries new shipping routes

Importers in Somalia usually bring goods from Asia through Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Saudi Arabia. [20] With shipping disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz and at Bab el-Mandeb, the strait at the south end of the Red Sea, Mogadishu's seaport has worked with exporters on other routes. [20] It brought in a ship carrying sugar directly from Sri Lanka for the first time, its director, Mohamed Ali Nur, said. [20]

Why it matters — Somalia depends on the sea for many everyday goods, so longer journeys can mean higher transport costs and slower deliveries to shops. [20] Fighting in Yemen, across the water, has forced more than 85,000 people from their homes since the start of September, the International Organization for Migration said. [20]
08
Baker Hughes sees no slowdown in energy building

Baker Hughes, a US company that makes equipment for the oil and gas industry, said it sees no slowdown in energy projects despite higher interest rates. [21] Its chief executive said high prices lead to investment today, which brings new supply tomorrow. [21] The company has just over $37 billion of orders it has yet to deliver, including work for gas pipelines and plants, power for data centres, and liquefied gas. [21]

Why it matters — The war has put gas from Qatar, one of the world's biggest exporters, at risk because ships cannot pass the Strait of Hormuz freely. [21] Baker Hughes expects the world to need capacity for 900 million tonnes a year of liquefied gas, gas cooled into a liquid so it can travel by ship, by 2035. [21]
09
Anthropic picks the Nasdaq, and OpenAI waits

Anthropic, the company that makes the Claude AI system, has chosen the Nasdaq stock exchange for its planned share sale, which could come as soon as October. [23] Some estimates put its value at $2 trillion, though that figure is not final. [23] It told some shareholders it will make an operating profit for a second quarter in a row, the Financial Times reported. [22] OpenAI, which makes ChatGPT, will not list its shares this year, its chief Sam Altman said. [18]

Why it matters — Anthropic's chief, Dario Amodei, wrote at the weekend that AI companies should slow how fast their best models improve, because of safety risks. [18] An analyst at Gartner, a research firm, said strict safety rules could favour Anthropic and OpenAI if smaller rivals cannot afford them. [22]
10
Michael Dell's investment firm nears an insurance deal

DFO Management, the firm that invests Dell Technologies chief Michael Dell's money, is close to buying Baldwin Insurance Group, the Financial Times reported. [24] Baldwin, based in Tampa, Florida, gives businesses and people advice on risk and insurance, and is valued at about $4.14 billion. [24] The deal would take it off the stock market at a price above its current value, the report said. [24] Reuters could not confirm the report. [24]

Why it matters — If it goes ahead, Baldwin's shareholders are paid out and the company leaves the stock market. Baldwin reported that its revenue grew 30% to $492.9 million in the second quarter of 2025. [24]
11
GE HealthCare in talks to buy a cancer-scan firm

GE HealthCare, a US maker of hospital scanners, is in talks to buy Sofie Biosciences for about $1 billion, the Financial Times reported. [25] Sofie, based in Dulles, Virginia, makes radioactive chemicals that help cancer show up on scans. [25] It is developing ones for PET scans to find some cancers of the stomach, the gullet and the pancreas. [25] A deal could be announced as soon as next week, the report said. [25]

Why it matters — Sofie would add to GE HealthCare's business that supplies the chemicals used in scans. [25] Reuters could not confirm the report, and neither company could be reached for comment. [25]
12
Canada's main share index loosens its rules

S&P Dow Jones Indices, which runs Canada's main share index, said on Friday it will let some foreign companies listed in Toronto join it. [26] Until now only companies based or incorporated in Canada could qualify. [26] Firms from elsewhere can now qualify if they have a material and substantive connection to Canada. [26] The change takes effect on 21 December 2026, after a consultation that began in July. [26]

Why it matters — Investors said it would likely keep Anglo Teck, a big copper producer being formed in a proposed merger, in the index. [26] Anglo Teck is to be headquartered in Vancouver but have its main share listing in London. [26]
13
German firms put more money into China, less into the US

German companies invested €5.6 billion more in China in the first half of 2026 than a year earlier, a rise of about a third. [27] The figures come from a study by the German Economic Institute, based on data from Germany's central bank. [27] Their investment in the United States fell by nearly two-thirds, to about €4.3 billion, amid US tariffs. [27] That put China ahead of the US as a place for German investment. [27]

Why it matters — The institute's Juergen Matthes said Chinese state subsidies and a cheap yuan make producing in China artificially cheap. [27] He said the shift moves production and jobs away from Germany, and he wants the EU to put tariffs on Chinese imports to offset the subsidies. [27]
14
Britain's prime minister meets company bosses on growth

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham meets the heads of several big companies on Monday to talk about his plans for economic growth, his office said. [28] They include the bosses of Britain's biggest energy companies. [28] The meeting follows a report that he will wait until after a by-election next month to decide whether the Jackdaw gas field, which Shell backs, can start producing. [28] A by-election is a vote to fill one seat in parliament.

Why it matters — His finance minister, John Healey, set out a brighter view of the economy last week, before a budget with hard choices on tax and spending. [28] Burnham will also meet founders from finance technology, AI, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. [28]
15
The BRICS summit ends with new trade plans

Leaders of the BRICS group of emerging economies ended their summit in New Delhi on Sunday. [29] China's President Xi Jinping proposed an AI cooperation zone, shared special economic zones and a services trade forum that China will host next year. [29] The group began as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and now also includes Iran, Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. [29] On Saturday its leaders agreed a joint statement urging maximum restraint in the Middle East, backed by both Iran and the UAE. [29]

Why it matters — China chairs the group next year and wants to make it a working platform for development among poorer countries. [29] Iran's president also met the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, the highest-level meeting between the two countries since the war began. [29]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a scarce ship earns its owner far more for the same trip

When the war closed most ways to move Gulf oil, buyers began bidding for the few ships left, so their owners collect several times more per voyage.

The twist

A tanker owner is not doing more work this year. There are fewer other ships a customer can hire, so each trip on his ship pays several times what it did.

How it works

A war closes the usual way to move oil out of the Gulf
Buyers crowd onto the few ships, pipes and ports still working
New ships take a year and a half to three years to arrive
So buyers bid against each other, and old customers get bumped for whoever pays most
The owner of a working ship earns far more for the same trip
Those earnings pay for new ships and projects, which later bring the cost back down

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

Saudi Arabia's pipeline shutting

The pipeline was one of the few ways left to get Gulf oil out. With it shut, the few ships and the stored oil that remain carry more of the load, and each barrel costs more.
The tanker fund up 3,600%

Rates on Middle East tanker routes are up close to 500%, because long-time customers are now bidding against strangers for the same few ships.
Somalia's port trying new routes

When the usual ports in the Gulf became hard to reach, Mogadishu's importers had to pay for other journeys, including a ship straight from Sri Lanka.
Baker Hughes seeing no slowdown

High gas prices are paying for new gas projects now. Those projects are what will add supply later and bring the cost back down.

Where you've seen this

Concert tickets

when a show sells out, people holding tickets can resell them for several times what they paid

Flats in a city short of homes

landlords raise rents because tenants have few other places to go

Ride apps in a storm

fares jump when many people want a car and few drivers are out

The catch

The high earnings last only while nothing new can arrive. Ships now on order would ease the shortage in 18 to 36 months, and a reopened strait would end it much sooner.

And the whole of it

The extra money a tanker owner earns is paid by people further along the line. That means a refinery, a trucker buying diesel at more than $6 a gallon, and a shopper in Mogadishu whose sugar came by a new route. Each of them sees a higher price at a pump or a shop, and almost none of them can tell which ship or pipe it came from.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Saudi Arabia's main way of getting oil around the blocked Strait of Hormuz has been shut since Friday, and the Iran-Gulf talks set for Monday were postponed with no new date. [1][6] An analyst at IG, a trading firm, says oil could keep rising unless the talks produce something or the pipeline is back quickly. [5] On Wednesday the US central bank is expected to raise interest rates to fight inflation that dearer fuel is feeding. [10][12]

Why it works on us — Trump's promise that petrol prices will drop like a rock soon after November's midterm elections gives voters a date to wait for, without saying what has to happen first. [6]

Who gains

Owners of oil tankers — Rates on Middle East tanker routes are up close to 500% in a year, and shipping companies are making record profits. [19]
Baker Hughes and other makers of energy equipment — High prices are paying for new gas projects, and Baker Hughes has just over $37 billion of orders still to deliver. [21]
Buyers of US government bonds — A ten-year US government bond now pays close to 4.97% a year, near its highest since 2007. [12][13]
The Nasdaq stock exchange — It won Anthropic's planned share sale, after winning SpaceX's listing earlier this year. [23]
Anthropic and OpenAI — An analyst at Gartner said strict safety rules could favour them if smaller rivals cannot afford the checks. [22]

Who pays

People and firms buying diesel in the US — It reached a record of more than $6.20 a gallon on Sunday, about 65% higher than before the war. [6][4]
Shoppers in Somalia — The country buys many everyday goods by sea, and longer journeys can mean higher transport costs and slower deliveries. [20]
People in Yemen — More than 85,000 have been forced from their homes by fighting since the start of September. [20]
People buying a home in the US — Rates on 30-year fixed US mortgages went above 7% last week. [31]
Workers in Germany — German firms raised investment in China by about a third, and the German Economic Institute's Juergen Matthes said that moves production and jobs away from Germany. [27]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

How long the East-West pipeline stays shut.

Saudi Arabia has not said how badly it is damaged. One source told Reuters repairs could take five to six weeks, and another said pumping could partly restart sooner. [1]
02

Who launched the drones that hit the pipeline.

They came from Iraq and nobody has claimed the attack. Iraq has long been home to armed groups backed by Iran. [8]
03

When the Iran-Gulf meeting on the strait will happen.

Iran's foreign ministry said it would agree a new date with Oman, and none has been set. [6] Before it was postponed, only Iraq had publicly confirmed it would attend, and Bahrain said it would not. [9]
04

How much oil is really leaving through Hormuz.

Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, counts about 5 million barrels a day since June. The real figure may be higher, because many ships switch off their tracking systems when they cross. [7]
05

Whether a US rate rise on Wednesday is one move or the first of several.

JPMorgan's chief US economist expects a second rise in December. Analysts at ING, a Dutch bank, call it an adjustment, not a new series of rises. [11][14]
06

Whether the Bank of England's vote splits on Thursday.

It is expected to hold its rate at 3.75%, but three of its officials backed a rise at the meeting in late July. [11][30]
07

What Anthropic is worth.

Some estimates put it at $2 trillion, but the figure is not final and its share sale filing has not been made public. [23]
08

Whether the Dell and GE HealthCare deals happen at all.

Both were reported by the Financial Times, and Reuters could not confirm either one. [24][25]

04 Hope carry this

Mogadishu's seaport brought in a ship carrying sugar directly from Sri Lanka for the first time, after its usual routes through the Gulf were disrupted.

Also true today

At the BRICS summit in New Delhi, Iran and the United Arab Emirates both backed one joint statement urging restraint in the Middle East. Iran's president also met the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, the highest-level meeting between the two countries since the war began.