Japan raised rates to a 31-year high and the yen fell anyway. Its officials began the checks that come before buying yen.

The rest of the day

40 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

1. 02

   A Fed official says the problem is not just oil

   Neel Kashkari, who runs the Federal Reserve's Minneapolis branch, said on Sunday that American inflation is too high across the whole economy, not only in fuel. [6] Strip out energy and food, he said, and prices are still rising too fast. [6] He backed last week's unanimous quarter-point rise to 3.75%-4.00%, after dissenting at the previous meeting because he wanted a rise then. [6] All but two of the Fed's rate-setters now expect at least one more increase this year. [6] He added that interest rates cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz or make oil cheaper. [6][10]

   Why it matters — Kashkari is saying the Federal Reserve cannot blame the war for this and wait. That is the argument that turns one rise into a series, and it lands on every American with a credit card or a new mortgage.

2. 03

   Traders move to a rise in October

   Futures markets now put a 56% chance on the Federal Reserve raising rates again in October, and treat a rise by the end of the year as settled. [3] Analysts at Bank of America said tightening cycles are usually front-loaded and that the Fed almost never stops after one increase. [3] They kept their forecast of two more rises, in October and December, pointing to American consumer spending running 6.3% higher than a year ago. [3] Money markets ended Friday pricing one more American rise by the end of 2026 and two more by June 2027. [7]

   Why it matters — A week ago the argument was whether September was a one-off. It is now about how many more come, which is what sets the rate on anything borrowed at a variable rate.

3. 04

   Money shifts into short US government debt

   Investors are moving into government bonds that are repaid soon rather than in decades, a bet that the Federal Reserve will get inflation down in the end. [8] The interest on two-year US debt has climbed to about 4.75%, the highest in years, as the price of those bonds fell. [8] Reuters put it at 4.7604%, up 0.36 points in a fortnight. [3] Futures markets are pricing another 0.8 percentage points of increases over the coming year. [8] Bloomberg said that shows traders believe Kevin Warsh, who chairs the Federal Reserve, will keep his promise to fight inflation. [8]

   Why it matters — A short bond pays out before inflation can eat much of it, so buying short is a way of saying the fight will be won but not quickly. Savers are being offered the best return on cash in years.

4. 05

   The US ten-year rate reaches a 19-year high

   The interest the American government pays to borrow for ten years passed 5% last week, its highest in 19 years. [34] It was 4% in March. [33] Two things pushed it there: shortages first from the pandemic and now from war, and governments borrowing so much that the market is flooded with their bonds. [34] Petrol is $4.47 a gallon and American home loans cost about 7%. [33] The Economist puts the ten-year rate at its highest in two decades. [32] The Wall Street Journal warns that even working out why bond prices moved is harder than it looks. [43]

   Why it matters — The ten-year rate is the number most rich-world mortgages are priced from, so it reaches households long before it reaches governments.

5. 06

   Asian shares rise while oil slips

   South Korea's technology-heavy share index gained 1.1% on Monday and a wide index of Asian shares outside Japan rose 0.3%, lifted by demand for chips. [3] Japan's market was closed, though its futures rose 0.5%. [3] Oil eased despite the attack on Saudi Arabia's capital, because Saudi Arabia is trying to restart shipments through a damaged pipeline. [3] Brent settled 0.2% lower at $103.68 a barrel and US crude at $100.02. [3] Investors were weighing a recovery in Saudi shipments against the attack. [10]

   Why it matters — Two forces are pulling in opposite directions on the same day: a war that removes oil from the market, and repairs that could put some back.

6. 07

   The world's oil cushion shrinks by two thirds

   Vivek Dhar, head of commodities at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, now estimates that the world has five to ten weeks of oil and fuel in storage before stocks run down. [3] A fortnight ago his estimate was 15 to 20 weeks. [3] The change follows the closing of Saudi Arabia's east-to-west pipeline, which carries crude around the Strait of Hormuz, after drone attacks damaged it. [3][12] Dhar said the closure has materially altered the oil market. [3]

   Estimated a fortnight ago15 weeks

   Estimated now5 weeks

   Why it matters — Stored oil is what keeps a price steady when supply is interrupted. A smaller store means the next interruption moves the price at the pump faster.

7. 08

   Hiring an oil tanker costs a record

   The daily price of hiring a ship to carry crude oil has reached a record, the Wall Street Journal reported. [12] Drone attacks shut Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline earlier this month, pushing crude back onto ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. [12] That fleet was already stretched, and the longer voyages and short shuttle runs around Hormuz tie each ship up for longer. [12] Reuters reported Saudi Arabia is now trying to restart some flows through the line. [3] The effect has spread worldwide. [12]

   Why it matters — The oil itself is only part of what a litre of petrol costs. When the ships run short, the freight bill is added to a price that is already high.

8. 09

   Gold stalls while bonds pay more

   Gold was little changed on Monday at $4,379.74 an ounce, after touching a one-week high on Friday. [10] American gold futures for December delivery slipped 0.1% to $4,419.40. [10] Rising rates usually curb demand for gold, because assets that pay interest become more attractive and gold pays none. [10] Silver rose 0.8% to $66.76 an ounce and platinum 0.2% to $1,804.33. [10] Indian buyers held off, hoping gold gets cheaper. [11] In India, gold futures ended last week 1.04% higher at 154,000 rupees per 10 grams and silver rose nearly 3%. [42]

   Why it matters — Gold is the asset that reacts to what people expect rates to be, not to what they are today. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said it needs oil or bond rates to fall before it can climb again. [10]

9. 10

   A German state vote unsettles the euro

   Projections showed the far-right Alternative for Germany finishing first in state elections in north-eastern Germany on Sunday, a blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives. [1] Reuters described it as their worst election result since 1949. [3] The euro barely moved at $1.1482, having lost almost 1% last week. [1] Economists at the Dutch bank ING said years of economic stagnation helped split the vote, and that the split will now make the stagnation harder to escape. [1]

   Why it matters — Lenders charge a government more when they doubt it can hold a majority together long enough to fix its finances. German government debt was expected to come under pressure on Monday. [3]

10. 11

    Five more central banks decide this week

    Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Mexico and South Africa all set interest rates in the coming days, with the three European ones expected to hold. [7][3] Business surveys for September are due in the United States, the euro area and Britain. [7] James Knightley, an economist at ING, said that with only two American rate-setters expecting no further rise this year, the shift to a tougher line has already happened. [7]

    Why it matters — A decision everybody expects changes nothing when it lands. What moves prices is the wording that comes with it, and this week there are five chances for a surprise.

11. 12

    America sells $183bn of debt this week

    The US Treasury auctions $69 billion of two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion of five-year notes on Wednesday and $44 billion of seven-year notes on Thursday. [7] Money markets ended Friday pricing another quarter-point American rise by the end of 2026 and two more by June 2027. [7] Buyers therefore have to decide what to pay for debt whose value falls if those rises arrive. [7]

    Why it matters — These three sales test how many buyers American government debt still has this week. What they cost feeds into the ten-year rate that most American mortgages are priced from. [32]

12. 13

    India drains cash as a rate rise nears

    India's ten-year government rate rose for a fifth week running to 7.0686%, after climbing about 0.26 points over the previous four weeks. [13] The Reserve Bank of India sold 500 billion rupees ($5.21 billion) of short-dated bonds last week, its first net sale at auction since November 2017, and will sell 250 billion more today. [13] The point is to pull cash out of the banks, which are flush after lenders raised $127 billion under a special currency scheme. [13]

    Why it matters — Too much spare cash pushes overnight lending rates below the level the Reserve Bank of India has set, which makes its own rate meaningless. Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise again in October, which pushes India the same way. [13]

13. 14

    Indian firms borrow before October

    Large Indian companies have been raising money in the bond market in recent days and more are expected this week. [14] They are moving ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's rate meeting on 5-7 October, where a quarter-point rise is expected, and ahead of the cash squeeze the Reserve Bank of India has started. [14][13] Surplus cash in the banking system is still strong enough that buyers are taking the bonds. [14]

    Why it matters — A company that borrows now locks in today's rate for years. Every firm doing that is making the same bet: that money will be dearer in a fortnight than it is today.

14. 15

    An Indian state lender borrows abroad

    India's National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development is raising $500 million through a ten-year bond, its first ever sale to overseas investors. [15] It is separately in talks to raise about $1 billion over 15 years with a guarantee from the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, part of the World Bank group. [15] The guarantee means the World Bank arm pays if the Indian lender cannot, which lets it borrow for longer. [15]

    Why it matters — Roads, ports and power stations take decades to pay back, and Indian banks do not lend that far out. A guarantee is how a country reaches money it could not otherwise borrow.

15. 16

    Investors prefer emerging markets' own money

    Fund managers investing in developing countries are sticking with bonds issued in local currencies rather than in dollars, as rising American rates make dollar bonds less attractive. [16] The appeal is cheap valuations and the chance to profit by borrowing where interest is low and lending where it is high. [16] Fund inflows and returns both show the shift. [16] Further American rises and a stronger dollar are the risk to it. [16]

    Why it matters — This is the choice that decides whether a government in Africa or Latin America can borrow from its own savers or has to find dollars it does not earn.

16. 17

    Turkey liquidates 131 investment funds

    Turkey's Capital Markets Board ordered two state banks, Isbank and Ziraat, to oversee the winding up of 131 investment funds run by seven managers, after a cash crunch triggered a sharp fall in the Istanbul share index. [17] One of them, Tera Portfoy, said investors asked for about 300 billion lira ($6.15 billion) back in a short period. [17] It paid out between 16 and 18 September, then could not continue because accounts were blocked. [17] Several executives have been detained. [17]

    Why it matters — Ordinary Turkish savers put money into these funds and cannot now get it out. Finance minister Mehmet Simsek said the problem is contained and not a danger to the wider system. [17]

17. 18

    An Australian landlord rejects a raised bid

    Ingenia Communities, which runs land-lease housing estates in Australia, rejected a A$2.06 billion ($1.47 billion) offer from Warburg Pincus, a firm that buys whole companies. [18] The cash offer of A$5.05 a share is 6.3% above the bid Ingenia turned down last month, and 16.9% more than the shares last closed at. [18] It still required Ingenia to abandon its own $711 million purchase of the developer Peet. [18] Ingenia's board said the price substantially undervalues it. [18]

    Share price on Monday4.43 A$

    The offer Ingenia rejected5.05 A$

    What Citi calls compelling5.25 A$

    Why it matters — Analysts at Citi said A$5.25 to A$5.50 in cash would be compelling, so the two sides are about 4% apart. [18] Ingenia's shares rose 2.6% to A$4.43, still below the offer. [18]

18. 19

    A second Australian board says no

    Perpetual, an Australian firm that manages other people's investments, rejected a third approach from EQT, a Swedish firm that buys companies, and ended the talks. [19] EQT offered A$22.50 a share in cash, about US$16.03, the same price as its second attempt in July. [19] This time it added that it would still pay in full even if Perpetual paid a dividend of up to A$0.60 a share. [19] EQT called it best and final. [19]

    Why it matters — Two Australian boards turned down higher cash offers on the same morning. Both said the buyer was undervaluing a business that is harder to price while interest rates keep moving.

19. 20

    Telix buys a German isotope maker

    Telix Pharmaceuticals of Australia agreed to buy ITM Isotope Technologies Munich for about $1.65 billion, before cash and debt are counted. [20] ITM's owners will receive about $1.25 billion in Telix shares priced at $11.84 each, leaving them with roughly 23.7% of the combined company. [20] ITM already makes medical isotopes at commercial scale and turns a profit. [20] Telix uses those isotopes in treatments it is developing. [20]

    Why it matters — Telix is buying its own supplier rather than paying for isotopes on the open market. It is the same instinct that made carmakers buy battery plants.

20. 21

    Paramount offers California $1.5bn

    Paramount and California's attorney general have discussed a package of concessions to settle the state's challenge to its $81 billion purchase of Warner Bros Discovery, including a $1.5 billion investment in film and television production inside California. [21] Company executives and the group of states that sued spent the weekend on the detail. [21] A deal would clear the way for HBO, CBS, CNN, the streaming services and the film studios to sit under one owner. [21]

    Why it matters — The states sued to stop the merger; the price of dropping that is now a number. It tells every future buyer what a competition objection costs to settle.

21. 22

    UBS boss fights Switzerland's capital rules

    Sergio Ermotti, chief executive of UBS, said it is a mistake to think shareholders alone would pay for tougher rules, and that customers and staff would too. [22] Swiss lawmakers are deciding how much of its own money UBS must hold against its foreign arms. [22] A committee compromise would let it cover half with a cheaper kind of capital, which Ermotti said would mean finding $13 billion of it, painful but doable. [22] A stricter 90% option, he said, goes too far. [22]

    Why it matters — UBS chairman Colm Kelleher has already said the bank would have to think hard about its future in Switzerland if the rules leave it unable to compete. [22] Ermotti also said the Swiss regulator and the Swiss National Bank bear some responsibility for Credit Suisse's collapse. [22]

22. 23

    China's economy lags its own AI boom

    China's youth unemployment, excluding students, reached 18.9% in August. [23] Car sales fell 20% in the first half of this year and housing sales fell another 14%, and prices across the economy are falling. [23] Economists close to the Chinese government have warned publicly that too much money is going into artificial intelligence, which employs few people, and too little into the rest. [23] Li Daokui, a former central bank adviser, said the economy is running too cold. [23]

    Why it matters — Xi Jinping arrives in the United States this week with the strongest technology story China has had and the weakest domestic economy in decades. Both facts will be in the room.

23. 24

    China resists letting the yuan rise

    As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare to meet, the familiar demand that China let its currency rise is back from the United States and Europe. [24] The yuan is reckoned to be as much as 30% below what it would be worth if it floated freely. [24] A cheap yuan makes Chinese goods cheap abroad. [24] Raising it quickly would squeeze factory profit margins that are already thin and push unemployment higher, and would not fix the deeper problem of falling prices. [24]

    Why it matters — Every country asking China to raise the yuan is asking it to accept fewer factory jobs at home. That is why the request has been made for twenty years and mostly refused.

24. 25

    Currencies wait for the Trump-Xi meeting

    Asian currencies barely moved against the dollar in early Monday trading as investors waited for the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping later this week. [4] Analysts at MUFG Bank said trade and economics will dominate, with technology and artificial-intelligence restrictions the hardest part. [4] The dollar was little changed at 156.87 yen and 6.6943 offshore Chinese yuan, while the Australian dollar edged up 0.1% to US$0.7125. [4] The dollar was steady against a basket of big currencies. [1]

    Why it matters — MUFG said a constructive statement afterwards would lift Chinese assets and the Asian suppliers that depend on them. [4] Until then, most of Asia's currencies are parked.

25. 26

    A discounter's read on American shoppers

    Todd Vasos, chief executive of the American discount chain Dollar General, said households earning $100,000 a year are now behaving like lower-income shoppers. [25] He said his core customers, those earning under $45,000, change how they shop when petrol passes $4 a gallon: they stay closer to home, come more often and buy less each time. [25] The national average petrol price is now $4.476 a gallon. [25][33]

    Why it matters — This is what the oil price looks like from inside a household budget. It is also why the Federal Reserve's own officials keep saying inflation is not only an energy story.

26. 27

    A furniture chain grows in a frozen market

    Williams-Sonoma, the American home-goods retailer that also owns Pottery Barn and West Elm, has gained about 23% on the stock market this year while house sales stay weak. [26] The United States is 96% of its sales, and American buyers face high loan rates plus rising energy and food bills. [26] The company lifted its operating profit margin from 7.9% in 2019 to 17.6% in 2021 by cutting discounts and reorganising deliveries. [26] Revenue fell from $8.25 billion in 2021 to $7.81 billion in 2025 while operating profit held. [26]

    Why it matters — It is the clearest example this week of a company keeping its profits by selling less at full price rather than more at a discount.

27. 28

    Jefferies sticks to a rising market

    The bank Jefferies kept its forecast that America's S&P 500 index of big company shares ends 2026 at 8,000 and 2027 at 9,000. [27] It expects company profits to grow 35% this year, against the 29% most analysts forecast. [27] Companies exposed to artificial intelligence and data centres make up about 46% of the index, with profits expected to grow about 60% this year and 24% next. [27] Jefferies named bond rates as the main risk. [27]

    Why it matters — The ten-year American rate has already risen more than 0.6 points this year, and Jefferies notes that a rise above one point has historically made investors pay less for each dollar of profit. [27]

28. 29

    Another bank names three risks to shares

    BCA Research kept a positive view on American shares with a year-end target of 8,100, but named three risks: higher bond rates, slower profit growth and a heavy run of new stock market listings. [28] The price investors pay for each dollar of expected profit has already fallen from 21.5 to 19.4 in six months, because profit forecasts rose faster than share prices. [28] Expensive shares have historically done worst when rates rise. [28]

    Why it matters — Two banks read the same market on the same day, and both put bond rates at the top of the risk list. The rate the US government pays is now the number share investors watch most.

29. 30

    The cheap money era is declared over

    Economists told the Associated Press that the 15 years of low rates and low inflation after the 2008 crisis are finished. [29] The average American 30-year home loan reached 6.95% last week, the highest in more than 18 months, against rates in the 3% range in the 2010s. [29] Joe Brusuelas of the advisory firm RSM said healthy spending is now colliding with shortages of oil, chips and workers. [30] Big technology firms are also borrowing heavily to build data centres. [29]

    Why it matters — Governments and technology companies are now competing for the same pool of savings. When two big borrowers want the same money, the price of borrowing it goes up for everyone else.

30. 31

    Americans worry about a $40 trillion debt

    The US government's total debt passed $40 trillion last month. [31] A survey commissioned by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation found 92% of registered voters concerned about what the debt does to their cost of living, with 57% very concerned. [31] Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said audiences are shocked to hear that the United States spends more on interest than on defence. [31] Watchdogs expect only small measures this year. [31]

    Why it matters — Voters are describing the debt through their own bills rather than through a budget line. That is also the channel through which it actually reaches them.

31. 32

    House prices face the ten-year rate

    The Economist argued that rising government borrowing rates will now change the housing market as well as government finances. [32] Most American mortgage rates closely track the ten-year US government rate, which is around 5% and the highest in two decades. [32] German mortgage lenders price their loans off long-term German government debt in the same way, and other rich countries follow the same pattern. [32] If rates stay high or rise further, house prices could be weak for a long stretch. [32] That rate passed 5% last week for the first time in 19 years. [34]

    Why it matters — This is the step between a bond auction and a household. The rate a government pays sets the rate a lender charges, and that sets what a buyer can afford to offer.

32. 33

    A warning that US shoppers are tiring

    Business Insider argued the American economy faces a squeeze from two directions: households pulling back, and a central bank that now has to slow the economy to bring prices down. [35] It noted that none of the Federal Reserve's own forecasters saw growth risks tilted downwards. [35] Consumer spending added nearly 2.5 percentage points to growth in the second quarter, which is the contribution that would be missed if shoppers stop. [35]

    Why it matters — Most of the week's forecasts assume the American shopper keeps going. This is the argument for what happens if that one assumption is wrong.

33. 34

    When profits rise and shares do not

    The Indian investment firm Carnelian Capital found that 110 of 272 large listed Indian companies saw investors pay less for each rupee of profit between March 2016 and March 2026. [36] Those firms still grew profits about 15% a year, while their market value grew only 10%. [36] Its sharpest example is Aptus Value Housing Finance, whose profit rose from 2.67 billion rupees in 2021 to about 9.43 billion in the year to March 2026 while its shares lost value. [36]

    Why it matters — Investors had already paid for that growth when the company listed. A price contains a forecast, and the profits only reward you if they beat it.

34. 35

    Two ASEAN markets pull away

    Thailand's main share index has risen 26% and Singapore's 22% in the year to 18 September, while the Philippines and Malaysia are close to flat and Indonesia, the bloc's biggest economy, has lagged. [38] Reuters columnist Manishi Raychaudhuri argued that local factors rather than global ones will now decide which South East Asian markets lead. [38] Most of this year's attention went to the AI-driven gains in North Asia instead. [38]

    Why it matters — These markets hold the savings of South East Asia, and they have spent the year moving on their own domestic news rather than on North Asia's chip boom. [38]

35. 36

    India argues about its own growth figure

    India reported 7.8% growth in the first quarter of its financial year, and the figure set off an argument about whether the gains are real. [39] The Economic Times built a list of 20 indicators across five areas, from farm health to job quality, choosing each one only if it said something the others did not. [39] It paired consumption with credit, to show whether spending is being funded by borrowing. [39]

    Why it matters — One headline number cannot be checked by a reader. Twenty can, and the disagreement is about whether the growth is reaching households or sitting above them.

36. 37

    A Chinese glove maker's profits jump

    Zhonghong Pulin Medical Products, which makes protective gloves in Xiamen in southern China, said sales in the first half of 2026 reached 1.478 billion yuan, 19.46% more than a year earlier. [44] Profit attributable to shareholders was 159 million yuan, more than 26 times the figure of a year before. [44] The company said higher selling prices for protective gloves did most of it, helped by tighter control of raw materials and stock. [44] It is building a plant in Indonesia. [44]

    Why it matters — A glove maker is a plain read on the cost of raw materials and the price it can charge. Its Indonesian plant would add capacity for eight to ten billion gloves a year. [44]

37. 38

    Kenya is given ten maternity hospitals

    Amsons Group, a Tanzanian company built on cement, fuel and logistics, is funding ten specialist mother-and-child hospitals in Kenya through a $35 million grant. [37] The first, at Chebunyo in Bomet county, will have 250 beds, operating theatres and intensive care for mothers and newborns. [37] The ten will be built, equipped and handed to Kenyan public authorities, and are expected to handle up to a million patient visits a year. [37] President William Ruto said it is a grant, not a loan. [37]

    Why it matters — Kenya's health ministry says 26 counties account for about 60% of the country's maternal deaths, and hospitals are planned in ten counties including Garissa, Kwale and West Pokot. [37]

38. 39

    Some economists see rates as survivable

    The Wall Street Journal reported that some economists see an upside to the global jump in borrowing costs: economies are proving strong enough to take it. [40] Government borrowing rates have reached multi-decade highs across the developed world, and the American, Japanese and European central banks have all raised rates to hold down inflation caused by the war with Iran. [40] Growth has held up anyway. [40]

    Why it matters — A rate rise that an economy can absorb is a very different event from one that breaks it. Which of the two this is will not be clear for months.

39. 40

    American data cooled last week

    The Conference Board's index of leading American indicators slipped 0.1% to 99.5, held down by what consumers expect. [5] House building fell 2.6% in August to an annual rate of 1.275 million homes, where economists had expected 1.3 million and a rise. [5] Claims for unemployment benefit fell by 10,000 to 196,000 in the week to 12 September. [5] Canadian factory-gate prices rose 13.5% over the year, a 23rd straight annual increase. [5]

    Why it matters — Jobs are holding and building is not. That is the split the Federal Reserve is trying to read before it decides on October.

40. 41

    A warning about doing two things at once

    Bloomberg's opinion desk argued that the British, American and Japanese central banks are trying to hold down long-term government borrowing rates while talking tough about inflation. [41] It compared that to pressing the accelerator and the brake together. [41] The piece said none of the three governments is taking the politically hard decisions on debt, and that bond-market measures buy time while making inflation harder to beat. [41]

    Why it matters — This is an opinion, not a finding, and it names the tension underneath the whole week: the same institutions want cheaper government borrowing and dearer private borrowing.