Finance News · Monday, 28 September 2026
Oil rises 1.8% as Asia opens on Monday. Trump turned down Iran's plan to reopen Hormuz, and Iran says it will not soften it
Brent crude rose to $106.31 a barrel in early Asian trading after Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan; Iran says its conditions stand, and Trump says talks resume this week.
$106.31
for a barrel of Brent crude early on Monday in Asia
Friday's close was $104.32, after a 2.1% fall that day
71%
how much Brent has risen since the start of the year
US crude is up nearly 61% over the same months
64%
the chance markets give of another US interest rate rise on 28 October
the US central bank raised rates in September after oil prices jumped
The lead story — what happened
-
Brent crude, the world's main oil price, rose 1.8% to $106.31 a barrel in early Asian trading on Monday.
[1] -
US crude rose 1.3% to $93.62.
[1] On Friday both had fallen more than 2%, as the US and Iran held talks at the United Nations.[2] -
The rise came after US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected Iran's offer: "They made a proposal but I rejected it."
[1] [2] -
Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifted its naval blockade, eased sanctions on Iranian oil and released Iranian assets.
[9] [2] -
About a fifth of the world's oil passed through the strait before the war, which began with US and Israeli air strikes on 28 February.
[2] -
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran will not back down from its conditions.
[2] He says Iran is still waiting for a formal US answer through the go-betweens, Qatar and Pakistan.[9] [3] -
On US television on Sunday, Araghchi said Iran is ready both for talks and for war.
[4] Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, called Iran's offer a cynical attempt.[4] -
Trump told the news site Axios that he expects talks to resume this week.
[6] [7] -
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has told aides he expects US strikes on Iran to resume after November's midterm elections.
[1] -
Mediators are now pressing Iran to offer something on its nuclear programme, the issue Trump cares about most, the Wall Street Journal reports.
[5] -
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday they had captured an American underwater drone in the strait.
[2] The US military did not immediately comment.[2] -
Futures on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, two big US share indexes, were down 0.1% as trading began.
[8]
Who is involved
-
Donald Trump
the US president; he rejected Iran's plan on Saturday and says talks should resume this week
-
Abbas Araghchi
Iran's foreign minister; he made the seven-day offer and says Iran will not soften it
-
Mike Waltz
the US ambassador to the United Nations; he called Iran's offer a cynical attempt
-
Qatar and Pakistan
the go-betweens carrying messages between the US and Iran
How it unfolded
-
28 Feb US and Israeli air strikes on Iran start the war
[2] -
June the two sides reach a memorandum; a ceasefire follows and later collapses
[9] -
Friday Araghchi offers to reopen the strait in seven days; Brent falls 2.1%
[1] [2] -
Saturday Trump says he rejected the plan
[1] -
Sunday Iran says it will not back down; Trump says talks should resume this week
[2] [7] -
Monday Brent rises 1.8% as Asian trading opens
[1]
Where this points
Watch whether Qatar and Pakistan carry a formal US answer to Iran this week, and whether Iran adds anything on its nuclear programme, as mediators are asking.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
Brent rose 1.8% to $106.31 when Asia opened on Monday.
The US government's 10-year borrowing rate is near 5.17%, so companies building AI data centres pay more to borrow.
Foreign investors pulled an estimated $192 billion out of Asian shares in September, a record for one month.
Gold Fields offered about $27 billion for Northern Star, which said no.
Britain's finance minister must fill a 4.7 billion pound gap in defence plans.
The rest of the day
17 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
Northern Star turns down Gold Fields
Northern Star, Australia's biggest gold miner, said on Monday it had turned down Gold Fields, a South African miner.
[14] Gold Fields offered 0.3125 of its own shares plus 7.25 Australian dollars in cash for each Northern Star share.[13] That came to about A$27 a share, or A$38.7 billion ($27.1 billion), 22% above what Northern Star's shares were worth on 11 September.[13] [14] Chairman Michael Chaney said the price fell well short of the company's value.[13] Northern Star has cut its output forecasts several times, and Elliott, a big investor, has pushed it to consider a sale.[15] [13] - Cash7.25 A$ · 27%
- Gold Fields shares19.75 A$ · 73%
What Gold Fields offered for each Northern Star share, in Australian dollars, at 11 September prices. Most of it was in Gold Fields' own shares. Why it matters — Northern Star told Gold Fields on Friday that it would not discuss the offer further, so Gold Fields must raise it or walk away.
[13] Gold Fields has been buying in Australia, including Gold Road Resources for $2.4 billion.[15] -
03
Money pours out of Asia's share markets
Foreign investors pulled an estimated $192 billion out of Asian share markets in September up to the 25th.
[22] The old record for one month was $45 billion, in 2025.[22] That is the count of Manishi Raychaudhuri, a former BNP Paribas analyst, writing a column for Reuters.[22] He blames US 10-year borrowing rates of 4% to 5%, which pull money to the US.[22] Separately, foreign buyers put a record $426 billion into US shares and funds in the second quarter, chasing the AI boom.[23] $192bnOut of Asia, September$45bnOld monthly record, 2025Money pulled out of Asian shares this month, against the old record for a month. This month's is more than four times bigger. Why it matters — Currencies of countries that buy more from abroad than they sell, such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, fell hardest, which makes imports dearer.
[22] Inflation is 6.1% in the Philippines, and its central bank and Indonesia's have each raised rates three times this year.[22] -
04
Britain's finance minister makes his first big speech
John Healey, Britain's finance minister, makes his first speech to the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Monday.
[16] He will back firms that build for the military, such as three floating docks for submarines on the Clyde in Scotland.[16] He must also fill a 4.7 billion pound gap in the defence plan.[16] His first budget is on 28 October, and he is skipping many conference events to work on it.[17] The OECD, an economic research group, has just raised its British growth forecast for this year to 1.1% and cut its inflation forecast to 3.1%.[19] Why it matters — Energy costs from the Iran war and tight public money leave him little room.
[16] Tax rises, spending cuts or both could be on the way, the AP reports.[18] -
05
Europe and Japan face their own tests this week
Forecasters expect euro-area prices in September to be 3.7% higher than a year earlier, the fastest rise in three years, when the figure comes out on Friday.
[12] Markets expect up to four more quarter-point rate rises from the European Central Bank within a year.[11] In Japan, the Tankan, a big central-bank survey of companies, is expected on Thursday to show large manufacturers at their most hopeful since December 2017.[11] [12] Markets expect more than four rate rises from Canada's central bank over the next year.[11] Why it matters — A high euro-area figure would add to the case for a third European Central Bank rate rise this year.
[12] That would make loans dearer in the countries that use the euro. -
06
Indian shares fall for a seventh week
India's main share indexes ended lower for a seventh week in a row.
[10] The Sensex, an index of 30 big Indian companies, hit its lowest in more than three months on Thursday, then rose 0.43% to 73,895.74 on Friday.[10] Analysts blame oil above $100 a barrel, rising borrowing rates abroad and steady selling by foreign investors.[10] [24] Economists at ANZ, Citi, HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise its main rate in October.[25] Why it matters — India's central bank has already drained more than half of the spare cash in the banks, because that cash, dear oil and a weaker rupee all push prices up.
[25] ANZ expects three rises in a row, taking the main rate to 6%.[25] -
07
AI builders pay more to borrow
The US government's 10-year borrowing rate is near 5.17%, up about a point since January, so AI data-centre builders pay more to borrow.
[26] JPMorgan estimated in June that $4.1 trillion of AI-related debt will be sold by 2030.[26] Shares of Oracle, which borrows heavily for AI, fell 7% last week.[26] Bloomberg had reported that it sent a legal notice to protect itself from higher costs at its New Mexico data centre.[26] It would let Oracle delay paying for the site if it is not running by 2028; Oracle says the project is on schedule.[26] Why it matters — Riley Thompson of Mitsubishi HC Capital America told CNBC that lenders are getting choosier.
[26] He said the market really wants to fund only about 20 of 50 smaller AI cloud companies.[26] Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft borrow more cheaply because of their strong credit ratings.[26] -
08
Warburg Pincus bids a third time for Ingenia
Ingenia Communities, an Australian company, said on Monday it is weighing a third offer from Warburg Pincus, a private equity firm, meaning one that buys whole companies.
[20] [21] The new offer is A$5.25 a share, or about A$2.14 billion.[20] Ingenia's board turned down A$4.75 and then A$5.05, saying both were far too low.[20] Warburg still wants Ingenia to drop its planned $711 million purchase of Peet, a builder of new neighbourhoods.[20] Ingenia's shares rose as much as 7.1%, to their highest since late January.[20] Why it matters — After two refusals, the offer is now 10.5% above the first one.
[20] The board has still not said yes, and has made no recommendation to shareholders.[20] -
09
Ukraine asks for $27 billion more
Ukraine is asking its partners for another $27 billion this year for defence.
[33] It says the war costs more as Ukraine and Russia trade long-range drone and missile attacks.[33] President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that the EU and the IMF understand Ukraine needs the help.[33] Ukraine expects to need more than $52 billion of foreign financial help next year.[33] Its finance minister, Sergii Marchenko, said an IMF team comes in November to review Ukraine's loan, and a plan for next year's budget is needed by then.[33] Why it matters — Zelenskiy says drones must be ordered in October and November, or Ukraine faces trouble at the start of next year.
[33] Ukraine has also asked the EU to pay part of a loan early.[33] -
10
Senegal hopes to finish its debt rework soon
Senegal's president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, said he wants to finish reworking the country's debts quickly.
[30] His first aim is a $2.2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.[30] Senegal plans to rework its foreign-currency debt but leave out debt in the regional CFA franc.[31] S&P Global Ratings said African banks hold only that local debt, and not much of it, so they face little risk.[31] Even a 70% cut to local debt would leave them above the capital rules, S&P estimated.[31] Why it matters — Leaving local debt out suggests that lenders owed foreign currency would take the losses, S&P said.
[31] Those lenders could get less money back, less interest, or later payments.[31] -
11
The IMF changes how it writes its loans
The International Monetary Fund, which lends to countries in trouble, said on Thursday that its loan programmes should ask for fewer but deeper reforms.
[28] Its review covered programmes from 2018 to 2024, years of trade war, the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.[28] The IMF still favours early budget cuts, because they go with programmes that work.[28] But it says cuts should go only as far as possible, with spending kept to protect the poorest.[28] Its board backed the changes.[28] Why it matters — Critics such as Jubilee USA say past IMF terms cut health spending in some poor countries.
[28] They also say countries keep falling back into debt.[28] -
12
A top ECB official moves to the IMF
Isabel Schnabel, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, which sets interest rates for the euro, is set to leave in January.
[29] She is going to a senior job at the IMF, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.[29] Schnabel would run the IMF's department for money and financial markets.[29] Her eight-year term at the European Central Bank would have ended next December.[29] Why it matters — She leaves just as markets expect up to four more rate rises from the European Central Bank within a year.
[11] [29] -
13
Tata firms face a hard vote
Companies in India's Tata Group must soon vote on whether Natarajan Chandrasekaran stays on the board of Tata Sons, the group's holding company.
[27] Tata Sons' board voted on 17 September to keep him as executive chairman for five more years.[27] But Noel Tata, who chairs the Tata Trusts, opposes it, and the trusts own a majority of Tata Sons.[27] About 10 group companies, including Tata Motors and Tata Steel, own 12.86%.[27] The annual meeting was put off in August for lack of a quorum.[27] Why it matters — The group companies fear any vote will be read as taking a side, and some may not vote at all.
[27] Tata Sons may ask a company-law court to let the meeting go ahead without the trusts' nominee.[27] -
14
Airtel Money files to list in London
Airtel Money, which runs mobile payments for customers in Africa and is 77% owned by Airtel Africa, has filed to list its shares in London.
[19] Reports value it at more than 6 billion pounds.[19] That would make it the biggest new listing in Britain since Wise in 2021.[19] Britain has had only 11 new listings of more than 100 million pounds since the start of 2023.[19] Meanwhile Schroders and Beazley, two big London companies, leave the stock market in October after being bought.[19] Why it matters — Britain's stock market is slowly shrinking because more companies leave than join, says Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.
[19] One big listing does not change that on its own, he says.[19] -
15
Help to Buy may come back
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expect Britain to bring back Help to Buy in the 28 October budget.
[19] The scheme ran from 2011 to 2023.[19] It lent first-time buyers up to 20% of a new-build home's price, or 40% in London.[19] A government review found it raised new housing supply by 15% and added 25.1 billion pounds to the economy.[19] Shares in housebuilders such as Vistry and Crest Nicholson have been hit hard this year by the Iran war and dearer mortgages.[19] Why it matters — The loan made it easier for buyers to find a deposit and pass a lender's checks.
[19] RBC says a return would be the biggest boost the housebuilders could get.[19] -
16
Trump's fraud figure is hard to check
US Vice President JD Vance, who leads the Trump administration's task force on fraud, said this month that it had found 250 billion dollars of fraud.
[32] A New York Times check found some of the task force's figures overstated or vague.[32] Some rely on cases that began before Trump's second term.[32] The task force's own list claims more than 300 billion dollars found or stopped.[32] It gives details for only about 47 billion dollars of that.[32] Why it matters — A senior Trump administration official said the task force does not list each case, to avoid harming live investigations.
[32] So nobody outside can check the total.[32] -
17
India widens compulsory pension saving
India has raised the part of monthly pay on which retirement saving is compulsory, from 15,000 rupees to 25,000 rupees, from 17 September.
[34] The change is expected to bring about 10 million more workers into the Employees' Provident Fund, the national savings scheme for workers.[34] It follows minimum wages above 15,000 rupees in seven states and territories, including Delhi and Maharashtra.[34] Employers must also pay more into workers' pensions.[34] Why it matters — A worker earning 25,000 rupees a month now puts in 3,000 rupees instead of 1,800, taken from the worker's pay.
[34] The employer's payment into the worker's pension rises to 2,083 rupees from 1,250.[34] -
18
Romania pays blood donors in bonds
Romania has raised $604 million since 2025 by offering blood donors government bonds that pay more interest than usual.
[35] The scheme also helps with the country's blood shortages.[35] S&P Global Ratings may update Romania's credit rating on Friday.[12] After months of political trouble, Romania sits on the lowest investment grade, and is in danger of a cut to junk, the grade for riskier borrowers.[12] Why it matters — Governments with big deficits are working harder to borrow from their own citizens, using rewards, marketing and tax breaks.
[35]
Saying no to the first offer is often how a better one arrives
A board that turns down a bid is telling the buyer the price is too low, and the next offer shows how much the buyer wants the company.
The twist
A board's 'no' is usually not the end of a sale. It is how the seller asks for more, and it works as long as the seller can afford to wait.
The picture
How it works
- A buyer offers a price, often when the seller's shares are low
- The seller's board says no, and says the price is too low
- Saying no costs the seller little, as long as nothing forces a sale
- The buyer must offer more or walk away
- Each new offer shows how much the buyer really wants the company
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
-
Warburg Pincus bids a third time for Ingenia
Ingenia's board said no at A$4.75 and at A$5.05 a share, and on Monday Warburg came back at A$5.25.
-
Northern Star turns down Gold Fields
Northern Star's board called the offer too low and told Gold Fields it would not talk further, so Gold Fields must now offer more or leave.
-
Trump turns down Iran's seven-day plan
Trump said no on Saturday and expects talks this week, and mediators are now asking Iran to add something on its nuclear programme.
Where you've seen this
Selling a used car
a seller who turns down your first price is waiting to see if you will pay more
A job offer
a worker who turns down the first salary often gets a higher one, if the employer really wants them
House sales
sellers often reject the first bid to find out how high buyers will go
The catch
It only works while the seller can wait. A buyer can walk away for good, and then the shareholders lose the higher price they were offered.
And the whole of it
Behind each board's 'no' are its shareholders, and the board decides for them. They gain if the buyer comes back with more. They lose the offer if the buyer walks away, and nobody, the board included, knows which will happen when it says no.
What is really going on
Oil rose 1.8% on Monday after Trump said no to Iran's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it works on us — A flat 'no' in a headline sounds final, so a price jumps on it, even when both sides say a day later that talks go on.
Who gains
-
Northern Star's shareholders
— Their board's refusal keeps open the chance of more than A$27 a share, if Gold Fields comes back.
[13] -
Ingenia's shareholders
— After two refusals, Warburg Pincus's offer is 10.5% above its first, and the shares rose as much as 7.1% on Monday.
[20] -
The US share market
— US borrowing rates of 4% to 5% and the AI boom drew a record $426 billion of foreign money into US shares and funds in the second quarter.
[23] [22] -
Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft
— Their strong credit ratings let them borrow more cheaply than smaller AI firms as rates rise.
[26] -
British shipyards
— Healey plans to back firms building for the military, including three floating submarine docks on the Clyde.
[16]
Who pays
-
Indian companies and shareholders
— Oil above $100 a barrel squeezes company profits, analysts say, and Indian shares have fallen for seven weeks.
[10] -
People in the Philippines, India and Indonesia
— Money leaving for the US weakened their currencies, which makes imports dearer; inflation is 6.1% in the Philippines.
[22] -
Smaller AI cloud companies
— As US rates rise, lenders are choosier, and one says the market wants to fund only about 20 of 50 of them.
[26] -
British taxpayers
— The budget must cover a 4.7 billion pound defence gap and dearer energy, and the AP reports tax rises, spending cuts or both could follow.
[16] [18] -
Lenders owed Senegal's foreign-currency debt
— Senegal plans to rework that debt and leave its local debt alone, which points to losses for them, S&P says.
[31] -
Indian workers near the new pay ceiling
— A worker on 25,000 rupees a month now puts in 3,000 rupees a month instead of 1,800, taken from their pay.
[34]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
-
01
Whether US and Iranian talks start again this week.
Trump told Axios he expects them to. Iran says it has not yet had a formal US answer through Qatar and Pakistan.
[6] [9] -
02
Whether Trump plans more strikes on Iran.
The Wall Street Journal reports it from unnamed US officials. Trump's own words on Sunday were about talks, not strikes.
[1] [7] -
03
Whether Gold Fields comes back with a higher offer for Northern Star.
Northern Star told it on Friday that it would not discuss the offer further, and none of the reports carries a reply from Gold Fields.
[13] [14] [15] -
04
Whether Ingenia's board accepts A$5.25 a share.
The board says it has not formed a view, and Warburg Pincus still wants Ingenia to drop its purchase of Peet.
[20] -
05
How Britain's finance minister fills the 4.7 billion pound gap in defence plans.
He has not said whether Britain will spend 3% of its economy on defence by 2030.
[16] Failing to win that target was part of why he quit as defence minister under Keir Starmer.[16] -
06
Whether Help to Buy comes back in the 28 October budget.
RBC Capital Markets expects it, but the government has not announced it.
[19] -
07
How much money really left Asia's share markets in September.
The $192 billion is one columnist's estimate from stock exchange data, not an official count.
[22] -
08
Whether India's central bank raises rates in October.
ANZ, Citi, HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect it. ANZ says the spare cash in India's banks must fall below 3 trillion rupees first for a rise to work.
[25] -
09
How much fraud the White House task force has really found.
It claims more than 300 billion dollars but gives details for about 47 billion, and says listing cases would harm investigations.
[32]
The OECD, an economic research group, raised its forecast for Britain's growth this year to 1.1% from 0.9%. It also cut its forecast for British inflation this year to 3.1% from 3.7%.
Also true today
- India raised the part of monthly pay on which retirement saving is compulsory to 25,000 rupees, from 15,000. The change is expected to bring about 10 million more workers into the national savings scheme.
- Romania has raised $604 million since 2025 by offering blood donors government bonds that pay more than usual, and the scheme is helping with the country's blood shortages.
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