Minutes show most US central bank officials expect another rate rise by year end, as 10-year US borrowing costs touch their highest since 2002

The rest of the day

38 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

1. 02

   IMF head says growth will not shrink debts

   Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, which lends to countries in trouble, spoke in Singapore on Wednesday. [25] She said government debt worldwide is near its highest since the second world war and on course to reach 100% of world output. [19] For 17 years interest rates stayed below growth rates, which gave governments 'a relatively easy ride', she said. [25] Higher rates have ended that, so debts will not fall without spending cuts or tax rises. [25] She called the energy shock from the Iran war 'large but contained' so far. [26]

   Why it matters — She spoke a week before the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. [19] It lands on every government now paying more to borrow, from the US to France and Britain. [14]

2. 03

   Samsung expects an $80bn quarterly profit

   Samsung Electronics, the world's biggest maker of memory chips, expects an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, about $80bn, for July to September. [22] Operating profit is what its business earns before interest and tax. [22] That is nearly nine times last year's figure, and its fourth record quarter in a row. [27] Reuters says no technology company has passed 100 trillion won in a quarter before. [22] Memory prices have soared because AI data centres need more chips than factories can make. [22]

   Why it matters — Samsung and Micron, a US rival, expect the shortage to last into 2028. [22] Dearer memory also raises costs for Samsung's own phones and for other gadget makers. [22]

3. 04

   France says it needs no help from the ECB

   Emmanuel Moulin, head of the Bank of France, the country's central bank, said on Wednesday that France does not need help from the European Central Bank for now. [28] France's 10-year borrowing rate rose 0.18 points that morning, to 4.93%. [14] Lenders now want about 1.4 points more to lend to France than to Germany, down from nearly 1.6 last week. [29] Moulin blamed France's bigger deficit and doubt over whether its budget will pass. [28] France's government aims to cut the deficit from 5.4% of output to 5% next year. [28]

   Why it matters — Marine Le Pen, a far-right leader, wants the European Central Bank to step in and push French rates down. [28] Teachers and students have protested against wage freezes and school cuts in the budget. [14]

4. 05

   Oil climbs as Trump cools on an Iran deal

   Brent crude, the main world oil price, rose 1.36% to $101.54 a barrel on Thursday. [30] NBC News reported that President Trump's team has discussed restarting large US strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, possibly before the midterm elections. [31] Trump said late on Wednesday that a deal 'isn't really something that I want to do'. [31] Two Houthi attacks on airports at Abha and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia killed three people on Wednesday, Saudi officials said. [32]

   Why it matters — Trump's approval rating is at a record low, with petrol and diesel prices high. [31] Dear energy is the main reason US central bank officials fear prices will keep rising. [4]

5. 06

   Europe's diesel promise uses old barrels

   Last Friday the G7, a club of rich countries, promised to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel after US officials threatened to ban US diesel exports. [33] On Wednesday France and Germany said their share comes from stocks already pledged in March, not new barrels. [34] The International Energy Agency, which coordinates rich countries' emergency stocks, backed releasing that March pledge faster, diesel first. [35] Its members still hold about 1.1 billion barrels. [35]

   Why it matters — Diesel costs more than $6 a gallon in the US and a record 2.24 euros a litre in Europe. [35] Mike Wirth, head of the US oil company Chevron, called an export ban 'unwise' and said it could make supplies worse. [36]

6. 07

   EU and China open trade talks in Beijing

   Maros Sefcovic, the EU's trade chief, meets China's commerce minister, Wang Wentao, in Beijing on Thursday and Friday. [37] The EU buys more than 1 billion euros a day more from China than it sells there. [37] EU imports of plug-in hybrid cars rose 86% in the year to September while their prices fell 20%, and more than half came from China. [37] China refused an EU request to limit those car exports itself, the Financial Times reported. [38] The European Parliament voted 454 to 86 for a tougher line on China. [39]

   Why it matters — EU leaders meet on 15-16 October and want results to point to. [37] The Commission wants China to cap some exports, and it is unclear which ones China might accept. [37]

7. 08

   Porsche will sell fewer cars at higher prices

   Porsche, the German sports-car maker controlled by Volkswagen, set out its turnaround plan to investors on Wednesday. [40] Its profit margin fell to 1.1% last year, from 18% in 2023, as sales in China plunged and US tariffs bit. [41] It now wants to make a profit on fewer than 200,000 cars a year; it delivered 279,449 last year. [42] It plans to raise the average price of its top models by about 20%, to 330,000 euros, copying Ferrari. [43] About 9,000 jobs will go. [42][44]

   202318%

   20251.1%

   Why it matters — The plan ends Porsche's push towards electric cars, a U-turn that cost it and Volkswagen nearly 7 billion euros. [40] Jobs are already being lost across German carmaking as cheaper Chinese rivals grow. [42]

8. 09

   Shell's refineries earn a record per barrel

   Shell, Europe's biggest oil and gas company, expects its refineries to make $42 on each barrel of fuel from July to September. [16] That compares with $24 in the spring and an old record of about $28, set early in the Russia-Ukraine war. [16] War damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia has pushed fuel prices up faster than crude oil. [16] Diesel now sells for more than $100 a barrel above crude, for the first time. [16]

   Old record, 2022$28

   April-June$24

   July-September$42

   Why it matters — Refiners in Europe and the US earn most from that gap. [16] Drivers and lorry firms pay that gap at the pump, where prices have hit records. [16]

9. 10

   A supertanker trip to China costs $76m

   Trafigura, a big commodity trading firm, has hired the supertanker Alexandros to carry oil from the US Gulf Coast to China for $76m, CNBC reported. [17] Before the war the same trip cost $7m to $10m. [17] Gulf producers now carry oil across the Strait of Hormuz in one ship and load it onto another, which ties up far more tankers. [17] Vitol, the biggest independent oil trader, says the world's tanker fleet is fully in use. [45]

   Before the war$10m

   Now$76m

   Why it matters — The charter adds about $38 to the cost of each of its 2 million barrels. [17] Vitol says the war has opened 'huge' chances to profit from price gaps between regions. [45]

10. 11

    SpaceX seeks $40bn of loans to buy chips

    SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket and Starlink satellite company, is in talks with Apollo, an investment firm, and several banks to borrow for $40bn of Nvidia chips. [23] The loans would likely use the chips themselves as security, a person familiar with the talks told CNBC. [23] SpaceX listed its shares in June and raised $25bn in bonds two weeks later. [23] Measured against its profits, it carries five times as much debt as Alphabet, Google's owner. [46]

    Why it matters — Lenders are assuming the chips keep their value for about seven years. [23] Since June, the bonds of AI-linked companies have fallen in price, so new borrowing like this costs them more. [23]

11. 12

    Temasek calls an AI sell-off the biggest risk

    Temasek, the investment company owned by Singapore's government, said a fall in AI shares is the biggest risk to markets. [47] Its investment chief, Rohit Sipahimalani, said AI profits are holding US shares near records even as borrowing costs surge. [47] Roughly half the companies in the Russell 3000, a broad US share index, are at least 20% below their June highs, he said. [47] Analysts expect profits at the 500 biggest US companies to rise nearly 30% on a year earlier. [48]

    Why it matters — A small group of AI winners is carrying the whole market. [47] Sipahimalani said tighter safety rules, or customers not earning back what they spend on AI, could start a fall. [47]

12. 13

    Iraq makes its currency cheaper

    Iraq has set its official exchange rate at 1,500 dinars to the US dollar, down from 1,320, its second big devaluation in six years. [20] More than 90% of its budget comes from oil sold in dollars, nearly all of it shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. [20] The war has delayed those sales and forced discounts, so Iraq's government ran short of dinars. [20] It has delayed salaries in several provinces and payments to wheat farmers. [20] Each oil dollar now buys about 13% more dinars. [20]

    Why it matters — That helps Iraq's government pay nearly eight million workers, contractors, farmers and pensioners. [20] Iraqis will pay more for imported food, medicine and cars. [20]

13. 14

    IMF staff agree $1.2bn for Pakistan

    IMF staff and Pakistan's government reached a deal on Thursday that would release about $1.2bn, once the IMF's board approves it. [21] The money comes from a $7bn loan programme and a smaller $1.4bn resilience fund, and would bring payments so far to about $5.7bn. [21] Pakistan's inflation eased to about 10.3% in September after peaking in May, the IMF said. [49] It expects growth of 3.6% this year, held back by dearer energy. [49]

    Why it matters — Pakistan relies on Gulf energy and needs outside money to repay its debts. [49] On Wednesday it raised petrol to 396.65 rupees a litre, and shops must already close by 9pm to save fuel. [50]

14. 15

    South Africa weighs $600m of fuel relief

    Unions and business groups want South Africa's government to spend about $600m to cut fuel prices, after petrol passed 30 rand a litre for the first time. [18] Cosatu, the biggest union federation, says workers spend nearly a third of their wages on transport. [18] South Africa's finance minister, Enoch Godongwana, presents a three-year budget plan later this month. [18] The rand fell 1% against the dollar on Wednesday, and the rate on its main government bond, due in 2035, rose to 8.85%. [51]

    Why it matters — South Africa's central bank has raised rates twice this year, which squeezes the same households again. [18] Relief now would test the South African government's name for keeping its budget in order. [18]

15. 16

    The Weston family buys Boots for $8.9bn

    Wittington Investments, the company of Canada's Weston family, which controls the Loblaws grocery chain, is buying Boots for $8.9bn, or 6.74bn pounds. [52] Boots is a British chemist and beauty chain with 1,800 shops and 50,000 staff. [52] Sycamore Partners, a US private equity firm, and Stefano Pessina, Boots' long-time backer, are selling. [52] In 2022 Walgreens tried to sell Boots for up to 10bn pounds, and buyers could not raise the money. [52]

    Why it matters — The deal still needs approval from regulators and should close early in 2027. [52] Galen Weston, who is likely to chair Boots, said the family plans further investment in Boots. [52]

16. 17

    UK house prices stop rising

    The average UK home cost 298,441 pounds in September, about the same as a month and a year earlier, by the Halifax index from Lloyds Banking Group. [15] Economists had expected a small rise. [15] Prices fell 0.3% in August, the first drop in three years. [15] Banks have raised home-loan rates because of the global bond sell-off, though the Bank of England has not changed its own rate since December. [15]

    Why it matters — Rising rates hit people whose fixed-rate deals are ending, and buyers who need a loan. [15] Lloyds says new inquiries from buyers are at their highest since February. [15]

17. 18

    Africa opens its own credit rating agency

    The Africa Credit Rating Agency, AfCRA, opened in Mauritius on Wednesday, backed by the African Union after nearly ten years of talks. [53] It will rate governments, cities and companies, alongside the three big US agencies, Fitch, Moody's and S&P. [54] Those three hold 95% of the world's ratings business, and 23 African countries have no rating from them at all. [54] In 2024 Africa paid about $9 in interest for every $100 it borrowed abroad, against $4.70 for emerging Asia. [53]

    Africa$9

    Latin America$6.50

    Emerging Asia$4.70

    Why it matters — A low rating makes lenders charge more, and no rating can shut a country out of bond markets. [54] The agency has not yet named its owners or its chief executive. [54]

18. 19

    Congress panel links Webull to China

    A committee of the US House of Representatives that studies China said Webull, a share-trading app with 28 million users, is tied 'in structural ways' to China's government. [55] It pointed to Webull's owners, engineers, technology and data links. [55] The committee said the risk grew after Webull began holding customers' cash in October 2025. [55] Webull, based in Florida, said the report contains 'significant inaccuracies'. [55] Its shares fell 18% on Wednesday morning. [55]

    Why it matters — Chinese law can force companies to cooperate with China's government, including by handing over data, and the committee says Webull's software depends on systems under those laws. [55]

19. 20

    US regulators look into farm-machinery makers

    The Federal Trade Commission, the US competition watchdog, and the US Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday they will investigate makers and dealers of farm machinery. [56] They want to know whether the companies use their market power to squeeze farmers. [56] Shares in Deere fell 5%, CNH Industrial 5.7% and AGCO 5.9%. [56] The agencies are asking farmers and mechanics to describe dealer contracts, hidden charges and retaliation. [56]

    Why it matters — It follows a settlement that gave US farmers the right to repair their own Deere equipment. [56]

20. 21

    Japan raids its four big brewers

    Japan's Fair Trade Commission, its competition regulator, searched the offices of Asahi, Kirin, Sapporo and Suntory this week. [57] The four control more than 90% of Japan's beer market. [57] Officials suspect their sales managers met in secret for years to agree when, and by how much, to raise prices. [57] The inquiry covers price rises in October 2022 and April 2025, which the firms blamed on raw materials, energy and transport. [58] Shares in Asahi, Kirin and Sapporo fell. [58]

    Why it matters — If the suspicions are proved, drinkers in Japan paid more than they should have for years. [57]

21. 22

    Five ex-Barclays traders are cleared

    The Court of Appeal in London quashed the convictions of five former Barclays traders on Wednesday. [59] They were jailed between 2016 and 2019 for rigging Euribor or Libor, benchmark interest rates that fed into ordinary people's mortgages, savings and pensions. [59] The UK Supreme Court ruled last year that the juries in two similar trials were given unfair instructions. [59] The Serious Fraud Office, which brought the charges, did not oppose the appeals. [59]

    Why it matters — Nine bankers were convicted in these cases, and seven of those convictions have now been overturned. [59]

22. 23

    South West Water's owner asks for 550m pounds

    Pennon, which owns South West Water and supplies water to about 3.5 million customers in south-west England, will raise 550m pounds from its shareholders. [60] The money is part of a 1bn-pound plan to fix its pipes and service. [60] It will also cut its dividend, the payout to shareholders, by about 30%. [60] Last month a judge fined South West Water a record 7.9m pounds for hundreds of sewage spills. [60] Pennon's shares fell as much as 22%. [60]

    Why it matters — The fine is paid by shareholders, not through customers' bills. [60]

23. 24

    Royal Mail plans 2,500 job cuts

    Royal Mail, Britain's postal service, plans to cut up to 2,500 jobs in its head office and support teams by the end of next year. [61] Letter deliveries have fallen more than 70% since their peak in the mid-2000s. [61] It says no postal workers or drivers will lose their jobs, and nobody will be forced out. [61] These are the first cuts since EP Group, the company of the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky, bought it for 3.6bn pounds last year. [61]

    Why it matters — Ofcom, the regulator, has fined Royal Mail 37m pounds since 2023 for missing delivery targets. [61] The postal union says about 200 of its members are affected. [61]

24. 25

    Badenoch promises to scrap inheritance tax on homes

    Kemi Badenoch, leader of Britain's Conservative party, said a Conservative government would end inheritance tax on family homes. [62] Couples could also leave an extra 1m pounds tax-free. [62] Fewer than 5% of families pay the tax now, and she said that number would more than halve. [62] She put the cost at 6bn pounds, to be paid for with cuts including to welfare. [62] Critics said it favours the rich. [62]

    Why it matters — The plan could give older owners a reason to stay in big family homes instead of selling them, the Guardian reported. [62] Tax Justice UK, a campaign group, called it 'reckless'. [62]

25. 26

    A billionaire who 'left' Britain left long ago

    David Reuben, a property billionaire, was reported last weekend to have moved from London to Monaco, which has no income or inheritance tax. [63][64] TaxWatch, a research group, found he has been tax resident in Monaco since at least 2014, and his spokesperson confirmed it. [64] He and his brother Simon are worth almost 28bn pounds together. [64] Other rich people, such as Jim Ratcliffe, the owner of Ineos, have complained about Britain's taxes. [63]

    Why it matters — The previous chancellor, Rachel Reeves, ended the 'non-dom' rule in April 2025, which let some residents pay UK tax only on UK income. [64] This case shows that a departure reported as new can be ten years old. [64]

26. 27

    Amazon and HubSpot cut jobs

    Amazon cut fewer than 1,000 jobs on Tuesday, mostly in its shops business, in customer service, seller support and engineering. [24] It cut about 30,000 jobs late last year and early this year. [24] At the same time it plans to spend a record $220bn on data centres, chips and other AI equipment. [24] HubSpot, which sells software for marketing and sales, will cut about 660 jobs, 7% of its staff. [65]

    Why it matters — HubSpot's chief executive said the cuts follow a shift to AI but are 'not driven by AI-related efficiencies'. [65] HubSpot's shares are down about 45% this year. [65]

27. 28

    Cracks show in risky loans

    Loans to weak companies that now trade at 60 cents on the dollar or less have reached a level not seen since March 2020, JPMorgan strategists said this week. [66] The most are in technology. [66] In private credit, where funds lend straight to companies, a KKR fund values different loans to Kellermeyer, a US cleaning firm, at anything from nearly 100 cents to about 10. [67] Lawsuits accuse funds at KKR, Ares and Blue Owl of inflating such values, which they deny. [67]

    Why it matters — These funds set their own loan values and are paid fees on them, which gives them a reason to keep the values high. [67] The SEC, the US markets regulator, urged more 'rigor' in those valuations last week. [67]

28. 29

    Levi's profit gets a lift from tariff refunds

    Levi Strauss, the US jeans maker, raised its profit forecast for the year on Wednesday. [68] Refunds of tariffs it had paid added 4.9 points to its profit margin in the quarter to August. [68] Its sales were weaker: it cut its growth forecast to 7%, the bottom of its range, and US sales fell 1%. [68] Its profit for the quarter fell to $168.6m, from $218.1m a year earlier. [68]

    Why it matters — Levi is putting 5 of the 16 cents a share from the refunds back into holiday marketing and promotions. [68]

29. 30

    Congo finds $20bn paid to unregistered suppliers

    Fourteen big mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo paid at least $20bn from 2020 to 2025 to subcontractors that did not meet Congo's rules. [69] The country's subcontracting regulator told Semafor this after a round of checks. [69] They include parts of Glencore, a Swiss commodities giant, Ivanhoe Mines and Sicomines. [69] Congo's law says local partners must really own and run the firms that supply the mines. [69] Congo's regulator has ordered about 1,800 contracts ended, 1,540 of them at two Glencore units. [69]

    Why it matters — Detailed inspections start this month, and firms that do not comply could be shut, said the regulator's head, Juan Ted Beleshayi. [69] Glencore declined to comment. [69]

30. 31

    Nigeria's oil firm spent $8bn guarding pipes

    NNPC, Nigeria's state oil company, said it spent $8bn in 2025 protecting oil pipes and plants, 26% more than the year before. [70] Oil sales bring Nigeria about 90% of its foreign currency. [70] Theft and damage to pipelines have cost the country about $300bn in recent years. [70] Atiku Abubakar, who is challenging President Bola Tinubu in January's election, asked who was paid and for what. [70]

    Why it matters — NNPC's profit after tax rose 33% to $5.4bn last year, while its sales fell 24%. [70] It recorded five pipeline breaks in the first half of 2026. [70]

31. 32

    Britain proposes a duty on a Chinese paint whitener

    Britain's Trade Remedies Authority recommended new duties on rutile titanium dioxide from China, a white powder used in paint and paper. [71] It found Chinese makers were 'dumping' the powder, meaning selling it in Britain unfairly cheaply. [71] It said British makers, who employ over 570 people, face an 'imminent' threat of harm. [71] The business minister decides after the authority hears feedback. [71]

    Why it matters — It is one of several British moves against cheap Chinese goods, after tougher limits on steel imports this year. [71]

32. 33

    India's weak monsoon threatens food prices

    India had its lowest June-to-September rainfall in more than a decade, because of El Nino, a warming of the Pacific Ocean that shifts weather around the world. [72] Its foreign minister warned that this, with fertiliser shortages caused by wars, will bring a major food crisis in the coming months. [72] Farms employ 46.1% of India's workers and help feed almost 1.5 billion people. [72] Rural buyers matter to firms like Hindustan Unilever, Nestle and Maruti Suzuki. [72]

    Why it matters — It is expected to slow India's rural economy and push inflation up sharply, CNBC reported. [72]

33. 34

    China's payment network has a record day

    China's own system for moving money between banks across borders, a rival to dollar networks, had its busiest day ever in August, Semafor reported. [73] Use jumped last spring as the Iran war sent sanctioned companies looking for ways around the US. [73] The number of banks connected to it directly has more than doubled since Russia invaded Ukraine. [73] The dollar still sits behind most world trade and currency deals. [73]

    Why it matters — The Chinese currency's share of central banks' savings has actually fallen since 2022, so this is a small gain for China, not a threat to the dollar's place. [73]

34. 35

    Musk blames Indian rivals for Starlink delay

    Elon Musk said 'certain oligarchs' are blocking the launch of Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, in India. [74] He did not name them. [74] India's market is led by Jio, owned by Mukesh Ambani's Reliance, and Sunil Mittal's Airtel, which together hold over 80%. [74] SpaceX signed deals with both firms last year, and Jio announced its own satellite service in June. [74]

    Why it matters — Jio is widely credited with cutting mobile data prices in India after it launched a decade ago. [74] Musk says Starlink would reach people who cannot afford current prices. [74]

35. 36

    Four tribes launch betting apps with Kalshi

    Four Native American tribes in California and Oklahoma launched apps on Tuesday for betting on future events, run with Kalshi, a big US exchange for such bets. [75] Each tribe owns its app and brand, while Kalshi matches the trades and holds the money. [75] Many tribes have opposed these apps, which they see as a threat to their casino income. [75] The first tribal app launched less than a month ago, in Louisiana. [75]

    Why it matters — The deals split what had been a united front of tribes against the industry. [75]

36. 37

    Mubadala will keep investing $39bn a year

    Mubadala, an Abu Dhabi government investment fund worth $385bn, plans to invest about $39bn every year, in good markets and bad, its finance chief Carlos Obeid said. [76] That is roughly a tenth of what it holds. [76] Asia's share of its money rose from 10% to 13% in three years. [76] It wants more in China, South Korea, India and Japan. [76]

    Why it matters — It named the switch to cleaner energy, technology, supply chains and shoppers as its four themes. [76]

37. 38

    Germany's exchange stalls an EU markets plan

    EU finance ministers meet in Luxembourg on Thursday and Friday to agree a package that would put Europe's biggest market firms under one EU supervisor. [77] It is part of a 10-year effort to build one European market for shares and bonds that can compete with Wall Street. [77] Germany wants Deutsche Boerse, which runs the Frankfurt stock exchange, kept under German supervision, fearing job losses. [77] Smaller countries object. [77]

    Why it matters — Politico reported that the German exemption could put Friday's deal at risk. [77]

38. 39

    EU weighs a bigger charge on large companies

    The European Commission is looking at raising a yearly charge on large companies, partly to collect more from Apple, Meta and Google, the Financial Times reported. [78] The plan builds on a proposal called CORE, under which any company with EU sales over 100m euros pays a fixed sum to the EU budget. [78] The sums now proposed range from 100,000 to 750,000 euros a year. [78]

    Why it matters — A charge on all large firms avoids a tax aimed only at US tech companies, which could anger the Trump administration. [78]