Finance News · Monday, 5 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Saudi Arabia cuts its November oil price for Asia to a six-year low, against forecasts of a rise, as Gulf exports recover

Saudi Aramco will sell its main crude to Asian buyers at $5 a barrel below the Gulf yardstick, the widest gap since 2020, to cover part of their record shipping costs. It raised its price for Europe by $3.

a barrel below the Gulf yardstick: Saudi Arabia's November price for its main crude in Asia

the widest gap since June 2020; traders had expected a rise [1]

$1.2m

a day to hire a supertanker from the Gulf to China, on Friday

a year ago the same ship cost about $80,000 a day [1]

98%

of their pre-war level: Middle East crude exports, by JPMorgan's estimate

about 17.5 million barrels a day [5]

$101.58

for a barrel of Brent, the world's main oil price, on Monday in Asia

down 0.7% as G7 governments prepare to release emergency stocks [4]

The lead story — what happened

Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state oil company, cut its November price for Asian buyers of its main crude, Arab Light, by $3 a barrel. [1]
Arab Light will now sell at $5 below the average of the Oman and Dubai prices, the yardstick for Gulf oil sold in Asia. [1] That is the widest gap below the yardstick since June 2020. [1]
Traders and refiners had expected the price to rise by up to $5, in surveys by Reuters and Bloomberg. [1][3]
Aramco raised its November price for northwest Europe by $3 a barrel and made no change for US buyers. [1][3]
Three Asian refining sources told Reuters the cut looks meant to pay them back for shipping costs. [1] Hiring a supertanker to carry 2 million barrels from the Gulf to China cost $1.2 million a day on Friday, against about $80,000 a year ago. [1]
Many buyers avoid sailing into the Gulf, so producers shuttle oil out through the Strait of Hormuz and move it onto other tankers in the Gulf of Oman. [2][3] Saudi cargoes loaded at Sidi Kerir, a port in Egypt, have also been delayed. [1]
Crude exports from the Middle East are back to about 98% of their pre-war level, the bank JPMorgan estimates. [5] Crude passing through Hormuz itself was back to its pre-war level, about 13.5 million barrels a day, in the week to 28 September, by the count of Kpler, a tanker-tracking firm. [9] About 40% of the region's crude now leaves by pipeline without crossing Hormuz, against 17% before the war. [6]
Fuels are still short. Gulf exports of diesel, petrol and jet fuel are about half their normal level, Goldman Sachs estimates, partly because many refineries are still out of action. [7] China, the world's biggest refining centre, has also halted most of its fuel exports this month. [10]
OPEC+, the alliance of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, kept its November output targets unchanged on Sunday. [8] Its Gulf members are pumping well below those targets anyway. [8]
Brent crude, the world's main oil price, fell 0.7% to $101.58 a barrel in Asian trading on Monday. [4] The G7 group of rich democracies agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels from emergency stocks. [4]
Bloomberg's reporters read the cut as a sign that Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter, wants to sell more in Asia as other Gulf producers return. [3]

A year ago$80,000

Friday$1,200,000

What it costs to hire one supertanker for a day to carry Gulf oil to China. The ship now costs fifteen times as much.

Who is involved

Saudi Aramco

Saudi Arabia's state-controlled oil company and the biggest oil exporter; it sets a price list for each region every month
Asian refiners

the plants in Asia that turn crude into fuel and buy Saudi oil on long contracts; they pay to ship it home
Tanker owners

the firms that own the supertankers; they charge far more for a Gulf-to-China trip than a year ago
OPEC+

an alliance of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia that sets output targets; it held them on Sunday

How it unfolded

28 Feb US and Israeli strikes on Iran start the war, and Gulf exports collapse [6]
September Gulf crude exports climb back to at least 16.5 million barrels a day, 10.5 million more than in March [6]
Fri 2 Oct Supertanker hire reaches $1.2 million a day; the G7 agrees to release 100 million barrels [1][4]
Sun 4 Oct OPEC+ keeps its November output targets unchanged [8]
Mon 5 Oct Aramco's November list cuts Asia's price by $3 and raises Europe's by $3 [1]

Where this points

Watch whether the other Gulf producers also cut their November prices for Asia, and whether supertanker hire falls back from $1.2 million a day. [1][3]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Oil near $100 High→

Brent was $101.58 a barrel on Monday, even with Gulf crude flowing again. [4] In India, crude above $100 is one reason a rate rise is expected this week. [14] Diesel in Britain hit a record 199.18p a litre last week. [6]

Dearer borrowing High→

The ten-year US borrowing rate touched 5.342% on 1 October, its highest since early 2002. [25] India's ten-year rate rose for a seventh week in a row, to 7.21%. [14] The US government paid about $1.05 trillion in interest in 11 months. [26]

A strong US dollar Building↑

The euro was near its lowest since May 2025, at about $1.125. [21] India's rupee fell to 96.3 to the dollar last week. [14] India's central bank sold dollars to support it, and its reserves fell by a record amount in one week. [13]

Companies buying and selling Building↑

Schneider Electric, a French maker of power equipment, is close to buying PTC for about $20 billion. [28] AkzoNobel sold its Southeast Asian paints business to Nippon Paint for $1.35 billion. [32] A big shareholder promised its 17.6% of Monte dei Paschi to Intesa Sanpaolo's bid. [31]

Fewer and older people Building↑

Japanese companies over 100 years old are going bankrupt at a record pace, 112 by August. [39] Moody's says the G7 will have about two working-age people per older person by 2050, down from three. [40] Japan's count of its own citizens fell 3.5% in five years. [41]

The rest of the day

22 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
India's central bank is expected to raise rates

The Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, began a three-day meeting on Monday and announces its decision on Wednesday. [14] Most economists expect it to raise its main rate from 5.25% to 5.50%: 35 of 61 in a Reuters poll and 9 of 10 in a Mint survey. [12][11] It would be the first rise since February 2023. [14] Prices rose 4.82% in the year to August, above the bank's 4% target. [12] Nearly half the goods in the price index now rise by 4% or more, up from a third in March. [16]
5%5.5%6%
1. 1Now5.25%
2. 2Expected on Wednesday5.5%
3. 3Nomura's forecast for December5.75%
India's main interest rate today, and where economists expect it to go.
Why it matters — A rise makes loans dearer for Indian households and firms, and economists say it would back up the bank's defence of the falling rupee. [12] India's Nifty 50 share index has fallen for eight weeks in a row, its longest losing run in 25 years. [13]
03
Bets on a US rate rise fall, and Asian shares climb

Traders now put a 22% chance on the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, raising its rate in October, down from 64% a week ago. [18] The change followed Friday's US jobs report, which showed slower hiring than expected. [18] Japan's Nikkei share index rose about 2% on Monday and touched 70,037. [18][22] Markets in mainland China and South Korea were shut for holidays. [19] The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its September meeting, when it raised rates, on Wednesday. [20]

A week ago64%
Monday22%
The chance traders put on a US rate rise this month.

Why it matters — Traders still expect a US rise in December and two more in the first half of 2027. [21] Jefferies, an investment bank, expects only one more from the Federal Reserve. [21]
04
Bessent says the bond sell-off is worldwide

Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, told Axios on Saturday that rising US borrowing costs mostly follow a rise across the world. [23] He said he would worry more if the cause were special to US markets. [23] On 8 September he had said 'I am the house now', warning traders not to bet against the US government. [24] Since then the 30-year US rate has risen from about 5.25% to as high as 5.69%. [24] The ten-year rate touched 5.342% on 1 October, its highest since early 2002. [25]

Why it matters — Bessent said the US government cannot dictate where bond rates trade. [23] Total US government debt has passed $40 trillion, so higher rates add to the interest taxpayers carry. [24]
05
The euro sits near its lowest since May 2025

The euro traded at about $1.1246 on Monday, near its lowest level since May 2025, after four weekly falls in a row. [21] Traders blame France's debts and a political deadlock there before next year's presidential election. [21] French borrowing costs rose sharply last week, against those of other euro countries. [20] The US dollar sat near a 17-month high against other big currencies. [21]

Why it matters — Matthew Ryan of Ebury, a payments firm, said the dollar is winning because higher US rates and the worldwide bond sell-off pull money into it. [21] Strategists at OCBC, a Singapore bank, expect pressure on the euro to last while rate swings stay large. [21]
06
The US interest bill tops $1 trillion

The US government paid about $1.05 trillion in interest in the first 11 months of its budget year. [26] TD Securities, a bank, expects that bill to reach $1.4 trillion in 2027 and $1.6 trillion in 2029 if rates stay near today's level. [26] Its analysts say a crisis is not close. [26] US government debt has 5.9 years left to run on average, so higher rates reach it slowly, and it pays about 3.4% on average. [26]

2026$1.10tn
2027$1.40tn
2028$1.50tn
2029$1.60tn
TD Securities' estimate of the US government's yearly interest bill if rates stay near today's level.

Why it matters — The danger analysts describe is a loop: higher rates force more borrowing, and more borrowing pushes rates higher. [26] For now the US economy is growing faster, in money terms, than the rate on its debt, which slows the loop. [26]
07
Schneider Electric nears a $20bn deal for PTC

Schneider Electric, a French company that makes the power and cooling equipment inside data centres, is close to buying PTC for about $20 billion, a person close to the deal told Reuters. [28] PTC, based in Boston, makes software used to design, build and service products. [28] It was worth about $15.6 billion on the stock market. [28] The Financial Times first reported the talks and said a deal could be announced as soon as Monday. [29][30]

Why it matters — The price would be about $4.4 billion above PTC's stock-market value. [28] It would follow Schneider's agreed purchase of Cognite, an AI software firm, in June, and its offer for Shelly, a Bulgarian smart-home maker. [28][30]
08
Brazil goes to a runoff, and its markets open

Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, led President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday's first round of voting. [36] With nearly 85% of votes counted he had 48.47% and Lula 43.49%, though surveys had expected Lula to lead. [36] The two meet again in a runoff on 25 October. [35] Reuters reported that Brazil's markets were expected to jump when trading opened on Monday. [18]

Why it matters — Investors worry about Brazil's government finances and slow growth, and the campaign held little debate about either. [35] Flavio Bolsonaro is close to Trump, whose government has clashed with Lula's over trade and security. [35]
09
India says US trade talks have hit a plateau

Nirmala Sitharaman, India's finance minister, said on Monday that trade talks with the US have reached a plateau. [33] Giving more ground would be very, very difficult for both sides, she said. [33] The two countries have been negotiating since February 2025. [33] Last week Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, said a deal was not imminent. [33] Sitharaman said trade between the two runs in India's favour, and the US wants to shrink that gap. [33]

Why it matters — A week apart, both governments have now said in public that no deal is close. [33] Sitharaman added that the talks are still going on. [33]
10
Trump threatens South Korea over Alaska gas

Trump said on Friday that if South Korea does not join a $50 billion gas project in Alaska, he will 'double it up', without saying what he would double. [34] South Korean media suggested he meant tariffs on Korean goods. [34] South Korea says it is still checking whether the project would pay. [34] Trump also announced an $8.4 billion oil project that South Korea's industry ministry said was not part of their agreement. [34]

Why it matters — South Korea's industry ministry has asked the US, through trade channels, to explain the oil project. [34] Trump said he 'didn't jump the gun' in announcing South Korea's part. [34]
11
A big shareholder backs Intesa's bid for Monte dei Paschi

Delfin, a company registered in Luxembourg, promised to hand its whole 17.6% stake in Monte dei Paschi di Siena to Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover offer, Intesa said on Sunday. [31] Both are Italian banks, and Intesa is bidding for its smaller rival. [31] Delfin holds 534.68 million shares. [31] The offer covers up to 3.04 billion shares, and more if Monte dei Paschi's planned merger with Mediobanca, another Italian bank, finishes first. [31]

Why it matters — Intesa's bid now starts with 17.6% of Monte dei Paschi promised, from a shareholder that will also vote with Intesa at Monte dei Paschi's meeting. [31]
12
Japanese companies leave China at a record pace

The number of Japanese companies operating in China fell to 10,118 in June, the lowest since records began in 2010, says Teikoku Databank, a Japanese credit research firm. [38] That is 22% fewer than two years earlier. [38] A record 4,137 Japanese firms left China in those two years, and only 1,221 arrived. [38] Relations soured after Japan's prime minister said last November that Japan could join a war over Taiwan. [38]

Left China4,137
Moved in1,221
Japanese companies that left China and that arrived there, in the two years to June.

Why it matters — Japan's listed companies now earn less than 15% of their profits in China, down from 23% in 2020, and 35% in the US, a Monex Group expert estimates. [38]
13
China closed a record 670 banks last year

China closed 670 banks in 2025, a record, as its government tries to cut risk in a slowing economy, Semafor reports. [37] Nearly all of them were rural banks. [37] Fitch, a credit-rating firm, calls rural banks the weakest part of the system, with bad loans, thin savings of their own and poor management. [37] An expert told the Financial Times the closures aim to stop small banks from running out of cash. [37]

Why it matters — After years when lending drove China's growth, the banks' problems now hold growth back, an expert at Rhodium Group said. [37]
14
AkzoNobel sells its Southeast Asian paints to Nippon Paint

AkzoNobel, the Dutch company that makes Dulux paint, agreed to sell its house-paint business in Southeast Asia to Japan's Nippon Paint for $1.35 billion. [32] The sale covers Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Papua New Guinea and Australia. [32] AkzoNobel expects about $1 billion in cash after tax and payments to partners. [32] It has already sold its paint businesses in India and Pakistan. [32]

Why it matters — AkzoNobel says it will now focus on closing its merger with Axalta, a US coatings maker. [32] Nippon Paint had earlier taken part in a 12.5 billion euro bid for the whole company, which was withdrawn. [32]
15
Bill Gross turns against long-term bonds

Bill Gross, a co-founder of PIMCO, one of the world's biggest bond investors, wrote in the Financial Times that he would own no bonds except one-year US Treasury bills. [27] Those bills now pay 4.55%. [27] He said government, mortgage and company debt totals about $84 trillion, and US federal debt has reached 100% of the economy. [27] Hedge funds now hold 8.5% of US government bonds, nearly double their 2023 share. [27]

Why it matters — Hedge funds sell faster than the central banks that used to buy and hold these bonds, so prices swing more. [27] The ten-year US rate has risen more than one percentage point since the Iran war began. [27]
16
Moody's warns that ageing will strain budgets

Moody's, a firm that grades how safe it is to lend to governments, warned that ageing populations will squeeze public budgets well before they start to shrink. [40] The G7 rich countries have about three working-age people for each person over 65, and that will fall to about two by 2050. [40] The EU's population could peak as soon as 2029, the European Commission projects. [40] Japan's new census shows its own citizens fell 3.5% in five years, to 119.1 million. [41]

Today3
20502
Working-age people for each person over 65 in the G7 countries, by Moody's estimate.

Why it matters — Fewer workers pay less tax while pensions and care cost more, Moody's says. [40] Japan is also making it harder for foreigners to stay, raising the fee for permanent residency to $1,271 from $64. [41]
17
Japan's 100-year-old firms fail at a record pace

In the first eight months of 2026, 112 Japanese companies more than 100 years old went bankrupt, a record pace, Teikoku Databank says. [39] Rising costs, a shortage of workers and a shrinking home market are the main causes, economists told CNBC. [39] Sube Shoten, a tofu maker founded in 1877, stopped work in May. [39] Kadoya, a sesame-oil maker founded in 1858, is being taken private by Integral, a Japanese investment firm. [39]

Why it matters — Bankruptcies linked to rising prices rose 23.8% to 556 in the first half of 2026. [39] Small firms that sell mostly at home find it hardest to pass higher costs on to buyers, an S&P Global economist said. [39]
18
Trump defends data centres, and towns push back

Trump defended data centres at a rally in Ohio on Saturday, saying 'you can't just turn them off' or they will go to China. [42] The crowd went quiet. [42] Voters in both parties worry that these huge buildings full of AI computers raise power bills and use up farmland and water. [42] In Hazle Township, Pennsylvania, a developer offered $10,000 to households that accepted a 1,300-acre data-centre campus, and most residents rejected it. [43]

Why it matters — Amazon is in talks to use the Pennsylvania site but has no deal, and said on Friday it will stop signing secrecy agreements with governments over such projects. [43] Democrats likely need Ohio's Senate seat to win control of the US Senate, and the race there is close. [42]
19
North Sea oil workers vote to strike

More than 160 offshore workers at Apache, a Texas oil company, voted to strike after pay talks broke down, the Unite union said. [44] Apache offered a 4% rise, which Unite calls a real-terms pay cut for many staff. [44] A strike could begin later this month and would hit the Forties and Beryl oilfields in the North Sea. [44] Unite says it could severely disrupt UK fuel supplies. [44]

Why it matters — Apache says its offshore staff are among the best paid in the UK and work about 153 days a year. [44] A stoppage would come while diesel in Britain is at record prices. [6]
20
Glasgow moves to fire and rehire 23,000 staff

Glasgow City Council began sending letters to sack its 23,000 non-teaching staff and rehire them on new terms, after talks with unions collapsed. [45] The new pay system is meant to fix long-standing equal-pay problems. [45] Under the offer, 11% of staff would take a pay cut. [45] Unison, one of three unions, refused to put the offer to its members. [45]

Why it matters — It is one of the biggest fire-and-rehire plans the UK has seen. [45] Unison is asking lawyers whether the council may treat its members differently from those of the other two unions. [45]
21
Scams through hacked social accounts rise 400%

Money stolen in Britain by criminals who take over people's email and social media accounts reached 6.3 million pounds in the 2025-26 financial year, up from 1.2 million pounds the year before. [46] The figures come from Report Fraud, run by the City of London police. [46] Many scammers use a hacked account to sell fake gig tickets to the owner's friends and family. [46] People scammed once are often targeted again with calls and texts. [47]

Why it matters — The real total is likely higher, because many victims never report it. [46] One actor who lost 16 pounds to a fake visa website still gets scam calls every week, 17 months later. [47]
22
Tech job openings rise despite AI fears

TrueUp, a hiring website that follows more than 9,000 tech companies, counts more than 280,000 open tech jobs, up strongly since January. [49] About 190,000 tech workers have lost their jobs so far in 2026, against about 430,000 in 2023 at the peak of layoffs. [49] Demand for hardware engineers has jumped with spending on AI computing. [49]

Why it matters — The fear that AI would wipe out tech jobs is not showing in hiring yet, TrueUp's figures suggest. [49] Its founder linked the demand to AI chips, robots, new US factories and SpaceX. [49]
23
Costa's coffee shops make a profit again

Costa's main coffee-shop business made an operating profit of 20 million pounds in 2025, after losses of 13.5 million pounds in 2024 and 5.8 million pounds the year before, its accounts show. [48] Sales rose 5% to almost 1.3 billion pounds. [48] The chain opened a net 50 shops in the UK last year, its first net rise in several years. [48] Iced drinks, matcha and decaf for younger customers drove the growth. [48]

Why it matters — Costa plans 50 more UK shops this year, including drive-throughs. [48] It employs about 20,000 people across 2,700 outlets in the UK and Ireland. [48]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a buyer pays for the trip and the currency, not just the oil

A refinery pays for oil at its own gate: the oil, the ship that brings it, and the cost of swapping its money into dollars.

The twist

Asian refiners count everything they pay to get oil to their own gate, so when shipping costs jumped, Saudi Arabia cut its oil price to keep them buying.

The picture

about $100Oil at the port

$1.2m a daySupertanker hire

down 6% this yearThe rupee against the dollar

An Indian refinery pays all three of these for the same barrel. The price of the oil is only one of them.

How it works

Gulf oil is priced in dollars at the port where it is loaded
The buyer also pays for the ship that carries it home
And the buyer pays in its own money, swapped into dollars first
So a refinery compares what the oil costs once it reaches its own gate
When the ship or the swap costs more, a seller that wants to keep the buyer charges less for the oil itself

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

India's central bank is expected to raise rates

India buys its oil in dollars, so when the rupee falls each barrel costs more rupees, and that imported rise is one reason a rate rise is expected on Wednesday.
The euro near its lowest since May 2025

Europe also pays for oil in dollars, so a weaker euro adds to its bill on top of the $3 rise Saudi Arabia set for northwest Europe.
Trump threatens South Korea over Alaska gas

A tariff is one more cost added on the way to the buyer. A higher US charge would make Korean goods dearer in the US, even if the Korean factory charges the same.

Where you've seen this

Online shopping

a cheap item with costly delivery loses to a dearer one that ships free

A holiday abroad

the room, the flight and the exchange rate together decide what a family pays

Fruit from far away

it must be cheaper on the farm to sell at the same shop price as fruit grown nearby

The catch

A cut at the port does not mean a lower fuel bill: Brent is still near $100, and diesel from the Gulf is still at half its normal flow.

And the whole of it

A driver filling up in India or in France pays part of a tanker's hire and part of their own currency's fall. Neither appears on the receipt, which shows one number for a litre of fuel.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Gulf oil is flowing again, but carrying it to Asia now costs far more: a supertanker from the Gulf to China costs $1.2 million a day, against $80,000 a year ago. [1] Saudi Arabia is paying part of that bill with a lower price for Asian buyers, so that they keep buying its oil. [1][3] Buyers in northwest Europe will pay $3 a barrel more. [1]

Why it works on us — The Trump administration points to Gulf exports at pre-war levels as proof the US controls the Strait of Hormuz, and the number is true. [5] The fuels people actually buy, diesel, petrol and jet fuel, are still at about half their normal flow. [7]

Who gains

Refiners in Asia — They will pay $5 a barrel below the Gulf yardstick in November, a $3 cut they had not expected. [1]
Supertanker owners — Hiring one from the Gulf to China costs $1.2 million a day, against about $80,000 a year ago. [1]
Holders of short US government bills — One-year US Treasury bills now pay 4.55%, the one bond Bill Gross says he would still own. [27]
PTC's shareholders — A $20 billion price would be about $4.4 billion above PTC's stock-market value of $15.6 billion. [28]
Nippon Paint — It buys AkzoNobel's Southeast Asian house-paint business for $1.35 billion, after a bid for the whole company was withdrawn. [32]

Who pays

Refiners in northwest Europe — Aramco raised their November price by $3 a barrel. [1]
Households and borrowers in India — Prices rose 4.82% in a year, and most economists expect loans to get dearer on Wednesday. [12][14]
US taxpayers — Their government paid about $1.05 trillion in interest in 11 months, and TD Securities expects $1.6 trillion a year by 2029. [26]
Glasgow council staff — Under the council's offer, 11% of its 23,000 non-teaching staff would take a pay cut. [45]
Friends of people whose accounts are hacked — They buy fake tickets from hacked accounts, and thefts this way reached 6.3 million pounds in a year. [46]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

Why Saudi Arabia raised its price for Europe while cutting it for Asia.

Aramco gave no reason, and the refiners who spoke to Reuters talked only about Asian shipping costs. [1]
02

Whether Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE follow with cuts of their own.

Their November prices for Asia were not in anything we could read. Bloomberg reads the Saudi move as a race among Gulf producers for Asian buyers. [3]
03

Whether India's central bank raises its rate on Wednesday, and by how much.

Polls differ: 35 of 61 economists in Reuters' poll expect a rise, 9 of 10 in Mint's and 15 of 19 in Moneycontrol's. [12][11][15] A Larsen and Toubro economist expects no change, because demand is not overheating. [17]
04

Whether the US bond sell-off comes from debt worries or from a strong economy.

Bessent calls it a worldwide trend, Bill Gross blames too much debt, and TD Securities points to strong growth. [23][27][26]
05

Whether Schneider Electric signs a deal for PTC, and how much it pays PTC's owners.

The talks were reported by people close to them, and neither company had commented. [28][29]
06

What Trump would 'double' if South Korea stays out of the Alaska gas project.

He did not say, and South Korean media can only guess that he meant tariffs. [34]
07

How Brazil's markets take a runoff between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro.

Brazilian trading had not opened when this was written; Reuters reported that markets were expected to jump. [18]
08

Whether China's bank closures are slowing or still going.

Semafor's record figure of 670 covers 2025, and nothing we read gives a number for 2026. [37]

04 Hope carry this

Crude oil exports from the Middle East are back to about 98% of their level before the Iran war, by JPMorgan's estimate. In March, in the first weeks of the war, the region shipped about 10.5 million barrels a day less than it did in September.

Also true today

Costa's main coffee-shop business made a profit of 20 million pounds last year, after two years of losses. The chain opened 50 more UK shops than it closed and plans 50 more this year.
Tech companies have more than 280,000 jobs open, by the count of the hiring site TrueUp. About 190,000 tech workers have lost jobs so far this year, under half the 430,000 of 2023.