Finance News · Friday, 16 October 2026
Indonesia's main share index falls 11%, its worst day since 1998, after MSCI proposes dropping it from the share lists global funds copy, and freezes changes for Turkey
MSCI says Indonesia's stock market no longer deserves emerging-market status because of suspected coordinated trading, a move that would force index-tracking funds to sell; investors ran to bonds and gold as AI shares fell, and US wholesale prices rose 1.3%.
11%
fall in Indonesia's main share index on Friday
its steepest one-day drop since January 1998
32%
lost by that index so far in 2026, before Friday
the worst of any country's main share index this year
$4.7bn
of Indonesian shares sold, net, by foreign investors this year
investors told Reuters MSCI's move is likely to send more money out
15 in 100
shares in each company that Indonesia plans to require be free to trade
MSCI wants proof that such rules work, not only the plan
The lead story — what happened
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MSCI, a US company whose lists of shares are copied by big investment funds around the world, said on Thursday that Indonesia's stock market no longer deserves its 'emerging market' label.
[2] -
It proposed moving Indonesia to 'standalone' status, outside both of its lists for developing countries' markets.
[2] Argentina, Lebanon and Palestine are in that group now, and no Asian market is.[2] -
MSCI said it still suspects traders of working together to push share prices, and sees no evidence that anyone has been properly punished.
[2] -
On Friday the Jakarta Composite, Indonesia's main share index, fell more than 11%, its steepest one-day fall since January 1998.
[3] [4] -
The index had already lost about 32% this year, the worst of any country's main index.
[2] Foreign investors had sold a net $4.7 billion of Indonesian shares.[3] -
Funds that simply copy MSCI's lists would have to sell their Indonesian shares if the change goes ahead, and managers judged against those lists may sell too.
[2] -
Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS Bank, said this could hurt more than a one-step demotion, because funds bound by their rules would also have to cut.
[1] -
Indonesia has promised to publish every owner of more than 1% of a company, and set out a path to a rule that at least 15% of each company's shares are free to trade.
[2] -
Investors say the gap is punishment, not rules: Angus Mackintosh of Alethia Capital said Indonesia must fine and sanction those behind concerted share manipulation.
[1] -
Jeffrey Hendrik, head of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, said it had already made the market more open, and asked MSCI to explain its decision.
[3] -
The same day MSCI froze some index changes for Turkey's shares, over suspected coordinated trading in small companies held by Turkish funds.
[5] It said it may consult on moving Turkey out of its emerging list too if there is not enough progress by June 2027.[5] -
MSCI will take comments on Indonesia until 30 April 2027 and decide by 30 June.
[2]
Who is involved
-
MSCI
a US company that publishes lists of shares, called indexes, which trillions of dollars of funds copy; it proposed the downgrade
-
Indonesia Stock Exchange
the country's stock market, led by Jeffrey Hendrik; it says it has already reformed and asked MSCI to explain
-
Index-tracking funds
funds that buy whatever is on MSCI's lists; they would have to sell Indonesian shares if the change goes ahead
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Turkey's market
also under MSCI's watch after a crisis in its fund industry; given until June 2027 to show progress
How it unfolded
-
Jan 2026 MSCI warns it may demote Indonesia and freezes new additions of Indonesian shares
[2] [3] -
Jun 2026 MSCI postpones its review to see if new openness rules work
[2] -
Thu 15 Oct MSCI proposes moving Indonesia to standalone status, and freezes some changes for Turkey
[2] [5] -
Fri 16 Oct Indonesia's main index falls more than 11%
[3] -
30 Jun 2027 MSCI's final decision is due
[2]
Where this points
Watch whether Indonesian authorities fine or charge anyone over share-price pushing before the April 2027 deadline, because MSCI says it will go ahead unless it sees clear proof of change.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
US ten-year borrowing costs had their biggest one-day drop in more than a year on Thursday.
US wholesale prices rose 1.3% in September, the biggest monthly rise since March 2022.
Insuring $1 million of bonds of CoreWeave, which rents out AI computers, now costs about $100,000 a year.
MSCI froze some index changes for Turkish shares over suspected coordinated trading.
The UK's finance minister plans to raise taxes on banks in his 28 October budget.
The rest of the day
42 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
US wholesale prices jump 1.3%
US producer prices, what businesses charge each other before goods reach shops, rose 1.3% in September, the US Labor Department said on Thursday.
[7] That was more than twice the 0.6% economists expected, and the biggest monthly rise since March 2022.[6] Over a year they were up 6.3%, led by a 20% jump in petrol prices.[8] Without food, energy and trade services, prices still rose 0.5%, so the rise is wider than fuel.[8] Expected0.6%Actual1.3%US wholesale prices in September, rise in one month: what economists expected and what came. Why it matters — Economists use these figures to estimate the US central bank's favourite inflation measure, now expected to rise 0.32% for September.
[8] Futures traders put a 91% chance on at least one more US rate rise by December.[8] -
03
US shops sell more, layoffs stay low
US retail sales rose 0.8% in September, double the 0.4% economists expected, government data showed on Thursday.
[6] Much of the rise was petrol: without cars and petrol stations, sales grew only 0.25%, down from about 1.1% in August.[6] The same week 199,000 people made new claims for unemployment benefits, close to historic lows.[9] Employers are keeping workers but hiring little, which AP calls a low-hire, low-fire job market.[9] Why it matters — Axios said the week's data shows little sign that price pressures are fading on their own.
[10] Spending on everything except fuel is slowing, a sign that dear petrol is squeezing other purchases.[6] -
04
Warsh gives no hint before the vote
Kevin Warsh, who chairs the US central bank, spoke on Friday at the yearly meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand.
[11] He would not say whether the bank will raise rates again at its 27-28 October meeting, saying he does not prejudge meetings.[11] The bank raised its rate to 3.75%-4% in September, its first rise since 2023.[11] Goldman Sachs economists expect a pause in October and a final rise in December.[11] Why it matters — A blackout on comments by the bank's officials starts after Friday, so the week's hot price data is the last big clue markets get before the vote.
[11] Traders put the chance of no change in October at 72.3%.[11] -
05
Investors run back to bonds and gold
The rate on ten-year US government bonds fell about 10 basis points to 5.09% on Thursday, its biggest daily drop in more than a year.
[14] One basis point is 0.01 percentage points.[12] Investors bought government bonds for safety as AI and chip shares fell, even though price data that day was hot.[13] Gold rose as much as 1.4%, back above $4,150 an ounce.[17] Gold pays no interest, so it gains when bond rates fall.[17] Why it matters — US mortgage rates follow the ten-year rate.
[33] One day's fall leaves most of the rise since late February in place, when the ten-year rate climbed 1.23 percentage points.[33] -
06
The dollar has its worst day in a month
The dollar fell 0.3% against other big currencies on Thursday, its biggest drop since 3 September, and about 1% against the Swiss franc.
[15] Traders said money leaving AI shares went into US government bonds, which lowered US rates and made the dollar less attractive to hold.[15] The euro rose from a 17-month low to about $1.12.[16] Over the five weeks before, it had lost more than 3% on worries about France's debts and a winter energy squeeze.[16] Why it matters — Brent Donnelly of Spectra Markets, a trading adviser, said the US economy now leans so hard on AI spending that trouble there weighs on the dollar.
[15] Sterling also rose this week, helped by news that Britain's economy grew in August.[16] -
07
Australia's job losses cool rate bets
Australia lost jobs in September and its unemployment rate rose, figures showed on Thursday.
[44] Traders cut their bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the country's central bank, will raise rates again.[44] The Australian dollar fell as much as 1.1% to 68.94 US cents, its lowest since early July.[44] Its rate rises this year add up to one percentage point, the latest in September.[44] Why it matters — Tim Baker of Deutsche Bank said the rise in unemployment suggests the bank may have raised rates enough and is now slowing the economy.
[44] A CIBC strategist said the data points to no change at the November meeting.[44] -
08
TSMC earns a record for a sixth quarter
TSMC, the Taiwanese company that makes most of the world's most advanced chips, reported record profit for a sixth quarter in a row on Thursday.
[18] It expects revenue in October to December to be 58% higher than a year earlier.[18] Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Google and others compete for space on its factory lines, and its North American head gets at least 10 calls a day about it.[18] Its shares still slipped 0.4% on Friday.[3] Why it matters — US tech giants plan well over $700 billion of spending on buildings and equipment this year.
[18] A Mizuho analyst said TSMC's limited room to make more chips could hold back the AI firms' plans.[18] -
09
Chip shares bounce after a $1 trillion week
The biggest chip companies lost more than $1 trillion of stock-market value this week.
[19] SK Hynix fell 26% in five days and Samsung 22%, after CXMT, China's leading memory-chip maker, announced a denser memory design.[20] Some analysts doubt CXMT can make it in volume, and Ben Barringer of Quilter Cheviot asked what share of its chips would actually work.[20] On Friday South Korea's main index rose 3.3%, after a fall of almost 8% on Thursday.[3] Why it matters — SK Hynix and Samsung make up more than half of the value of South Korea's main index, so a chip sell-off moves the whole market.
[19] A Korean newspaper column quoted industry figures warning of a flood of new memory supply by 2029.[20] -
10
Insurance against AI defaults gets dearer
Insuring $1 million of CoreWeave's bonds against default for five years now costs about $100,000 a year, against under $40,000 a year ago.
[21] CoreWeave rents out computers for AI and has taken on more than $51 billion of debt and obligations.[22] A buyer of one of its bonds now earns 15.78% a year.[22] Insurance on Oracle, a big US software and cloud company, rose 12% in a week, to $28,000 a year per $1 million.[21] A year ago$40,000Now$100,000Yearly cost of insuring $1 million of CoreWeave bonds against default: just under $40,000 a year ago, about $100,000 now. Why it matters — The cost is rising most for the firms that borrowed most to build AI, which means lenders think a default there is more likely.
[21] The head of DBS, Singapore's biggest bank, said that after chips and power, money may be the next thing AI runs short of.[23] -
11
Anthropic investors discuss $1.5 trillion, not $2 trillion
Some investors in Anthropic, the AI company that makes Claude, discussed valuing it at about $1.5 trillion for its share sale in November, four people told Reuters.
[24] They had expected about $2 trillion.[24] Anthropic told them its revenue rose 45% to $16.8 billion in July to September, and that it was profitable by its own adjusted count.[24] Some were disappointed because revenue had more than doubled the quarter before.[24] Why it matters — Investors see the share sale as a test for the whole AI market, ahead of a possible OpenAI listing next year.
[24] SB Energy, a data-centre company, has already delayed its own listing.[24] -
12
Buyout owners borrow to pay themselves
Private-equity funds, which buy whole companies with investors' money, are making those companies borrow more so the funds can pay cash back to their investors.
[25] The usual ways out, selling the company or listing it on a stock market, have been scarce.[25] Moody's, a credit-rating agency, estimates such firms in Europe, the Middle East and Africa could borrow another EUR41bn before reaching debt levels that usually lead to a downgrade.[25] Why it matters — Funds now hold companies longer than the usual five or six years.
[25] The extra debt can leave those companies less able to invest or survive a downturn.[25] -
13
Buyout firms take CCC private for $6.1bn
CCC Intelligent Solutions, which makes claims software for insurers, agreed on Thursday to be bought for $6.1 billion by a group led by GTCR and including Elliott, two private investment firms.
[26] Shareholders get $7.75 a share in cash, 44% above the price before Reuters reported in July that a sale was being explored.[26] Its shares had fallen on slowing growth and fewer insurance claims.[26] The deal should close in early 2027.[26] Why it matters — CCC was owned by another buyout firm, Advent, until 2025, so it goes back into private hands a year after leaving them.
[26] -
14
BNY's profit beats forecasts
BNY, the world's biggest custodian bank, which holds and looks after investments for other firms, said revenue rose 12% to $5.7 billion in July to September.
[27] Profit per share rose 24% to $2.37, above the $2.27 analysts expected.[27] It was the bank's 15th quarter in a row of revenue growth, and it raised its forecast for the year.[27] Its shares rose more than 3% on Thursday.[27] Why it matters — Both the fees it charges and the interest it earns beat forecasts, in a week of heavy selling in AI shares.
[27] -
15
Emergency oil release grows past 400m barrels
The International Energy Agency, which coordinates emergency oil stocks for its member countries, said on Thursday that they will release more than the 400 million barrels agreed in March.
[28] Members promised to speed up the last 100 million barrels or so, including over 20 million barrels of diesel.[28] Brent crude, the main world oil price, traded around $105 a barrel this week.[29] Why it matters — US diesel is near a record, at about $6.29 a gallon, AAA data shows.
[29] Diesel fuels ships and other transport, so a faster diesel release aims at the fuel whose price is hurting most.[29] -
16
Shipping a barrel costs 15 times more
Hiring a supertanker in the Gulf now costs over $200,000 a day, against about $50,000 in late 2025, by Fearnpulse's count.
[29] A trip from the Gulf to East Asia costs over $30 a barrel, up from under $2 this year, BCA Research estimates.[29] A supertanker was hired from the US Gulf Coast to China last week for $76 million, about $38 for each barrel it carries, CNBC's Brian Sullivan reported.[30] About 20 oil tankers were lost in two weeks, one count says.[29] Start of 2026$2Now$30Cost of shipping one barrel of oil from the Gulf to East Asia, in dollars. Both figures are BCA Research estimates. Why it matters — A buyer pays for the oil and for the trip, so fuel can stay dear even when the oil price on screen falls.
[30] Shipowners' shares have risen with the rates.[30] -
17
Ship fuel stays scarce, Vitol says
Vitol, one of the world's biggest oil traders, said heavy fuel oil for ships is still scarce.
[31] Exports of it through Hormuz, the Gulf's sea exit, are down at least 800,000 tonnes a month from February, its Asia head Kieran Gallagher said.[31] Attacks on Russian refineries cut another 1 million tonnes a month.[31] The extra price paid for that fuel in Asia was near $50 a tonne this week, against $5.10 in February.[31] Why it matters — Producers are paying higher freight and risk charges to keep fuel moving, because their governments' budgets depend on the oil money, Gallagher said.
[31] -
18
US Treasury hits back at the IMF
David Zervos, a new adviser to the US Treasury Secretary, said on Thursday that the IMF should check its own forecasting record before criticising US policy.
[32] The IMF's head, Kristalina Georgieva, had said strong growth will not be enough to put US debt on a safe path.[32] US government debt has passed $40 trillion, and this year's deficit is about $2 trillion.[32] [33] Zervos listed IMF forecasts that went wrong, from 2008 to Argentina.[32] Why it matters — Long-term rates above 5% and a $2 trillion deficit threaten to make the debt problem worse, CNBC's analysis says.
[33] The IMF, which lends to countries in trouble, has given France a similar warning.[32] -
19
France's central bank backs a 3% deficit goal
Emmanuel Moulin, governor of the Bank of France, said on Thursday that France can cut its budget deficit to 3% of its economy by 2029.
[34] It was 5.1% last year, and the EU has put France under its procedure for countries that overspend.[34] He said higher interest costs add about EUR10bn a year to the task.[34] He blamed rising French borrowing costs on doubts that a budget will pass, not on the public finances.[34] Why it matters — Worries about France's debts helped push the euro to a 17-month low this month.
[16] Moulin said passing a budget that keeps the deficit at 5% would reassure lenders.[34] -
20
UK chancellor to tax banks more
John Healey, the UK's chancellor, its finance minister, plans to raise taxes on banks in his 28 October budget, the Guardian reported and bank bosses told the BBC.
[35] [36] One option is to raise the extra tax on bank profits back to 8% from 3%, which could bring in about GBP2bn a year.[36] The four biggest UK banks made about GBP15bn of profit in the first half of this year.[36] Lloyds fell about 1.9% and NatWest 1.6% early on Friday.[35] Why it matters — Higher interest rates have widened the gap between what banks charge borrowers and pay savers, and former banker Philip Augar said that leaves room for a moderate rise.
[36] UK Finance, the banks' trade body, warned that more tax would discourage investment and jobs.[36] -
21
UK economy grows when it was meant to shrink
The UK economy grew 0.1% in August, when analysts had expected a small fall, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday.
[37] Over the three months to August it grew 0.7%, with computer programming the biggest help.[37] Factories and energy grew in August, services were flat and building shrank.[37] The statistics office also raised its figure for June's growth to 0.4%.[37] Why it matters — Healey called it a sign of resilience two weeks before his budget.
[37] Capital Economics' Paul Dales said the economy is coping with dearer energy and borrowing better than expected.[37] -
22
Thames Water asks for GBP2.4bn more
Thames Water, the UK's biggest water company, asked its lenders on Thursday for another GBP2.4bn.
[38] It said it would otherwise run out of cash at the end of 2026 or early in 2027.[38] Its debts are about GBP20bn, and it has used GBP2.65bn of a GBP3bn loan its lenders gave last year.[38] The lenders, led by US funds such as Elliott and Silver Point, propose writing off GBP9.6bn of loans in a rescue.[38] Why it matters — Thames serves 16 million people in London and the Thames valley.
[38] The rescue needs Ofwat, the water regulator, to let Thames pay penalties in advance under special rules, which the UK government has found hard to accept.[38] -
23
UK minister may step into Sky's ITV deal
Lisa Nandy, the UK culture secretary, said on Thursday she is minded to intervene in Sky's GBP1.6bn purchase of ITV's channels and streaming service.
[39] Sky is owned by Comcast, a US media giant, and the deal would create the UK's biggest commercial broadcaster.[39] The companies have five days to respond.[39] If she steps in, Ofcom, the media regulator, and the Competition and Markets Authority will investigate.[39] Why it matters — Few in the TV industry expect the deal to be blocked, as broadcasters merge to compete with Netflix and YouTube.
[39] -
24
US bill targets banks' Epstein links
US lawmakers from both parties, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Robert Garcia, introduced a bill on Thursday called the Epstein Wall Street Records Act.
[40] It would make regulators such as the US central bank and the Securities and Exchange Commission investigate finance firms and bosses linked to Jeffrey Epstein, the late sex offender.[40] Those found at fault could be fined or banned from US finance.[40] Warren also criticised Barclays over how it checked its former boss Jes Staley.[40] Why it matters — Regulators would also have to publish their records on Epstein and his associates and pass any possible crimes to the US Justice Department.
[40] -
25
UniCredit cleared to take over Commerzbank
UniCredit, an Italian bank, said on Thursday that the European Central Bank has allowed it to own more than 30% of Commerzbank, a big German bank, with no upper limit.
[41] It expects to hold about 50% of the votes by the end of the year and take control.[41] Commerzbank is valued at EUR35bn.[41] The German government, which still owns about 12% of it, has resisted the takeover.[41] Why it matters — UniCredit says joining Europe's split-up banks will help them compete with bigger US rivals.
[41] Germany's finance minister has asked for guarantees that Commerzbank keeps lending to German firms.[41] -
26
Norway's fund may buy nuclear-arms makers
A commission set up by Norway's government proposed on Thursday that the country's EUR2 trillion wealth fund, the world's largest, be allowed to buy shares in some makers of nuclear weapons again.
[42] The fund now excludes 14 such companies, including Airbus, BAE Systems, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Safran.[42] The change would cover firms from nuclear-armed NATO allies of Norway.[42] Comments are open until 15 January, and parliament decides next spring.[42] Why it matters — Finance minister Jens Stoltenberg, a former NATO head, called it a paradox that the fund cannot own firms crucial to Norway's security.
[42] Some parties on the left oppose the change.[42] -
27
SEB pays $33m over Baltic checks
SEB, a Swedish bank, agreed to pay $33 million to New York's financial regulator after a review of its checks against money laundering in its Baltic branches from 2015 to 2019.
[43] The US Justice Department ended its own review without action.[43] SEB said this closes its US cases on the matter.[43] It will book the cost in its October to December quarter.[43] Why it matters — SEB said the payment will have only a limited effect on its finances, and its cost target for the year is unchanged.
[43] -
28
Hybe jumps on BTS's world tour
Shares in Hybe, the South Korean company behind the band BTS, rose 10% on Friday.
[45] iM Securities, a Korean broker, expects its revenue for July to September to more than double, to 1.5 trillion won, about $1.1 billion.[45] Concert sales should nearly triple, as about 3 million people went to its acts' shows.[45] For the first time, more than 70% of that audience was in Western countries.[45] Why it matters — Hybe rose far more than South Korea's main index, which gained 2.9% the same day.
[45] -
29
Ethiopia joins Africa's own payment system
Ethiopia's central bank has joined PAPSS, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, the platform said on Thursday.
[46] PAPSS lets firms in different African countries pay each other in their own currencies.[46] That skips the US dollar and the foreign banks that such payments used to pass through.[46] It started in 2022 with 10 banks and now has more than 150, in over 15 countries, though not South Africa.[46] Why it matters — Cutting the cost of payments between neighbours is meant to support the African free trade area.
[46] Ethiopia's central bank governor, Eyob Tekalign, called it a step to modernise the country's financial system.[46] -
30
US wants Senegal's debt deal within a year
Erin Browne, the US Treasury's under-secretary for international affairs, said on Thursday that the US wants Senegal's debt restructuring finished in under a year.
[47] Senegal has been in a debt crisis since 2024, when it found debts the previous government had hidden.[47] It is using the G20 Common Framework, a process set up in 2020 to help poor countries rework their debts.[47] The IMF said the day before that it is optimistic a deal can be reached.[47] Why it matters — Earlier cases under the same process, in Zambia and Ghana, were criticised for taking years.
[47] -
31
India drops a two-month-old closing rule
Sebi, India's market regulator, on Thursday scrapped the closing auction it brought in two months ago for the days when derivative contracts, bets on the price of a share or index, are settled.
[48] The auction caused abrupt price swings, and too few buyers and sellers turned up.[48] The closing price on those days will again be the average of the last 30 minutes of trading, weighted by how many shares changed hands.[48] Why it matters — Settlement days are Tuesday for Nifty options and Thursday for Sensex options, so the rule sets the price at which those bets are paid out.
[48] -
32
Indian funds stop big gold orders
Several big Indian fund houses, including Kotak Mahindra, UTI and HDFC, stopped taking large new orders for their gold funds late on Thursday.
[49] The halt followed talks with Sebi, the market regulator, a fund executive and two bullion officials told Reuters.[49] It comes just before the festive season, when demand for gold usually rises.[49] India imports most of its gold.[49] Why it matters — The rupee is under pressure from dear oil and foreign selling of Indian shares, and buying gold abroad adds to it.
[49] Gold imports fell to $1.8 billion in September from $2.3 billion in August.[49] -
33
IDBI Bank shares swing 9% and 8%
Shares of IDBI Bank, an Indian lender, rose 8.98% on Wednesday and fell 8.1% on Thursday.
[50] On Wednesday India's cabinet approved selling a 60.72% stake, owned by India's government and Life Insurance Corp, a state insurer, to Fairfax Financial, a Canadian group.[50] After the sale the two will still hold 34%, so between them they owned about 95% before it.[50] A Mint analysis found the shares often rise on Wednesdays, when the cabinet meets.[50] 5 of 100
shares not held by India's government or LIC
IDBI Bank before the sale: about 95 of every 100 shares were held by the Indian government and Life Insurance Corp. The rest traded. Why it matters — Hitesh Tailor of Choice Broking said the Wednesday pattern comes from a few big news days rather than a steady habit.
[50] -
34
Indian software firms beat forecasts
Tech Mahindra's shares rose 7% on Friday after its profit for July to September jumped 32.7% from a year earlier.
[51] Its revenue rose 15.6%, and it declared a dividend and one free share for each share held.[51] Infosys and Wipro rose over 3.5%.[51] Wipro's own profit fell 2%, but it has paid shareholders 2.6 times its six-month profit through a share buyback and dividends.[52] Why it matters — The Nifty IT index, which tracks India's software firms, rose nearly 2% on a day when India's main shares were slightly down.
[51] -
35
Taiwan's fund managers quit to trade
Fund managers and analysts in Taiwan are leaving their jobs to trade their own money, because local rules bar them from owning single stocks.
[53] Taiwan's main share index has risen 62% this year, the best of any major market, adding about $1.8 trillion of value.[53] Fewer than half of the 20 largest local share funds have kept the same manager for more than three years, by MoneyDJ's count.[53] Why it matters — Many of them move to less-regulated trading firms that let staff trade for themselves.
[53] Memory and circuit makers such as Nanya Technology have more than doubled in 2026.[53] -
36
Harvard's endowment gains 27%
Harvard University's endowment, the investment fund that pays for much of its work, returned 27.1% in the year to June, its best year since 2021.
[54] It now holds nearly $68 billion.[54] Its biggest holding is a $2.2 billion stake in SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket company.[54] Federally funded research income fell 19.5% to $509 million.[54] Why it matters — A US tax on Harvard's investment income rises from 1.4% to 8% this year, which takes a larger cut of future gains.
[54] -
37
KFC swaps Pepsi for Coca-Cola
KFC's US restaurants will switch from PepsiCo drinks to Coca-Cola next year, its owner Yum Brands said on Thursday.
[55] KFC has served Pepsi drinks in the US since PepsiCo bought the chain in 1986, and kept them after it was spun off.[55] Before that deal, KFC was Coca-Cola's second-largest fountain-drink customer after McDonald's.[55] The chain is trying to win back diners who left for Chick-fil-A and Popeyes.[55] Why it matters — KFC's US president called the switch a critical step in the chain's comeback plan.
[55] -
38
Netflix replaces its content chief
Netflix said on Thursday that Bela Bajaria, its chief content officer, will leave after nearly ten years.
[56] She will be replaced on 26 October by Peter Rice, who ran Disney's cable channels, news and live sport.[56] Bajaria had focused on Netflix's push into live sport.[56] Co-chief executive Ted Sarandos called Rice one of the industry's most effective operators.[56] Why it matters — Rice will run all of Netflix's series, films and live events worldwide.
[56] -
39
Supermicro names a new finance chief
Super Micro Computer, which builds servers for AI and works closely with Nvidia, named Mark Long its chief financial officer on Wednesday.
[57] It had promised a new one in December 2024, after an internal investigation.[57] In March, US prosecutors charged co-founder Wally Liaw over $2.5 billion of servers with export-controlled Nvidia chips allegedly sent to China.[57] Long was finance chief at Western Digital, a data-storage company.[57] Why it matters — Fortune said the hire is meant to rebuild trust with investors who have doubted the company for two years.
[57] -
40
Ex-White House crypto adviser's firm took Tether money
Bo Hines helped shape a US law on stablecoins, digital tokens tied to the dollar, while a firm he part-owned was paid by Tether, the biggest stablecoin company, the Wall Street Journal found.
[58] The firm, Nxum, earned $6.3 million under the deal, Fortune reported.[58] Hines kept a one-third stake while in government.[58] Tether hired him to run its new US arm a month after he left his job advising the US president, weeks after the law was signed in July 2025.[58] Why it matters — It adds to questions about conflicts between the Trump administration's crypto rules and private interests.
[58] Trump's latest filing showed $1.4 billion of crypto-related wealth.[58] -
41
China says rare earths will keep reaching Europe
China will keep approving export licences for rare earths to Europe, a commerce ministry spokesman told CNBC on Thursday.
[59] Rare earths are metals used in magnets for cars and electronics, and the promise holds whether or not China's trade truce with the US is extended past January.[59] China tightened its export rules on them a year ago, then paused that as part of the truce with the US.[59] EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic met China's commerce minister last week.[59] Why it matters — The promise separates Europe's supply from the US-China dispute, whose truce now runs only to January.
[59] -
42
Health bills keep Chinese families saving
Rural households in China spend 8.7% of their spending money on healthcare, second only to the US at 9.9% among 20 big economies, a new IMF book found.
[60] Urban China is third, at 5.4%.[60] Yet income per person in the US is more than 10 times China's.[60] The IMF says high health costs are a big reason Chinese families save rather than spend.[60] Why it matters — The IMF said more state spending on welfare would lift what Chinese families spend.
[60] -
43
Lawmakers question Meta's data-centre tax break
More than two dozen US House members from both parties wrote to the US Treasury about reports that Meta is claiming a research tax credit for building data centres, Semafor reported.
[61] They said that would turn a reward for experiments into a subsidy for ordinary building.[61] Meta said its new AI data centres need testing that cannot be simulated.[61] Why it matters — Semafor called it the latest sign of the US Congress responding to voters' anger at the AI building boom.
[61]
Why a share price is easy to push when owners hold most of the shares
When owners lock away most of a company's shares, a small group trading the rest can move the price, and big funds stop trusting it.
The twist
Only the shares that are actually for sale set the price, so a handful of traders can decide what a big company is said to be worth.
The picture
- Shares owners keep85%
- Shares that trade15%
How it works
- A founder, family or government holds most of a company's shares and rarely sells
- Only a small slice, the free float, is ever bought and sold
- A small group buying together can push that slice's price up fast
- Outsiders cannot tell a real price from a pushed one
- So index makers and big funds step back, and when they sell, the price falls hard
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
-
MSCI's freeze on Turkey
Turkish funds piled into small companies with few shares for sale, prices rose, and when the funds had to sell to repay savers, the same shares fell.
-
IDBI Bank's 9% and 8% swings
With about 95 of every 100 shares held by India's government and LIC, a few trades on cabinet news moved the price 9% up and then 8% down.
-
India drops its closing auction
Too few buyers and sellers came to the closing auction, so a small number of orders could swing the price, and Sebi went back to a 30-minute average.
Where you've seen this
Concert tickets
when only a few tickets are resold, one keen buyer can set the price for all of them
Rare football stickers
a sticker few people swap has a price set by whoever wants it most that week
Houses in a small town
when two homes sell in a year, those two sales decide what every house is said to be worth
The catch
Few shares for sale does not prove anyone is cheating: many family-owned firms are honest, and a thinly traded price can still be fair.
And the whole of it
A pension saver in Europe whose fund copies MSCI's lists owns a small piece of Jakarta's market without ever choosing it. If MSCI goes ahead, that fund will sell those shares without that saver choosing that either.
What is really going on
MSCI, a private US company, is telling Indonesia that the foreign money which copies its share lists will leave unless the country punishes the traders it suspects of pushing share prices together. Indonesia's main index fell 11% on Friday, and MSCI gave Turkey a similar warning the same day, with a June 2027 deadline.
Why it works on us — An 11% fall in one day looks like a verdict on a whole country, but MSCI's complaint is about how a small set of shares is traded, and one investor told Reuters it says little about most Indonesian companies.
Who gains
-
Holders of US government bonds
— Bond prices rise when their rates fall, and the ten-year rate had its biggest one-day drop in more than a year on Thursday.
[14] -
The UK government's budget
— Putting the bank surcharge back to 8% could raise about GBP2bn a year.
[36] -
UniCredit
— The European Central Bank let it raise its Commerzbank stake with no upper limit, so it expects control by the end of the year.
[41] -
CCC's shareholders
— They are paid $7.75 a share in cash, 44% above the price before the sale talk was reported.
[26] -
Coca-Cola
— It wins the drinks for KFC's US restaurants, which have served Pepsi since 1986.
[55] -
Western makers of nuclear weapons
— Airbus, BAE Systems, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Safran could again be bought by the world's largest wealth fund if Norway accepts the proposal.
[42]
Who pays
-
Indonesian companies, big banks most of all
— Bank Danamon's Irman Faiz said fewer big investors means less trading and dearer money raised by selling shares, with large banks most exposed.
[1] -
People who own Indonesian shares
— The main index had lost about 32% this year before it fell another 11% on Friday.
[2] [3] -
Shareholders in UK banks
— Lloyds fell about 1.9% and NatWest 1.6% after the tax plan was reported.
[35] -
Companies owned by private-equity funds
— They borrow to pay cash to their owners, which leaves less room to invest or ride out a downturn.
[25] -
Anyone buying oil carried by sea
— Shipping a barrel from the Gulf to East Asia now costs over $30, against under $2 at the start of the year.
[29] -
PepsiCo
— It loses the drinks contract for KFC's US restaurants from next year.
[55]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
-
01
How much money would actually leave Indonesia.
No source we could read puts a figure on how much index-tracking money holds Indonesian shares, and MSCI will not decide until 30 June 2027.
[2] -
02
Whether Indonesia will punish anyone before the deadline.
MSCI says it has seen no meaningful enforcement, and investors say sanctions are the only fix, but none of our sources names a case under way.
[1] [2] -
03
Who MSCI thinks has been pushing prices.
MSCI speaks of suspected coordinated trading in Indonesia and Turkey but has named no company or trader.
[2] [5] -
04
Whether the US central bank raises rates on 28 October.
Goldman Sachs expects a pause and traders put the chance of no change at 72.3%, while Nationwide's chief economist sees a real risk of a rise.
[11] [8] -
05
Whether September's jump in wholesale prices shows up in the inflation figure the US central bank watches most.
Seven bank estimates for it range from 0.29% to 0.35% for the month, and the official figure comes later in October.
[8] -
06
Whether the firms that borrowed most for AI can keep paying.
Insurance on CoreWeave's bonds trades at levels usually seen for firms in distress, while its boss told staff the market is acting irrationally.
[21] [22] -
07
What price Anthropic's shares will sell at.
Some investors talked of about $1.5 trillion against an earlier $2 trillion, but no price has been set and the people spoke to Reuters without being named.
[24] -
08
How much more tax UK banks will pay.
Raising the surcharge back to 8% could bring in about GBP2bn a year, former banker Philip Augar spoke of up to GBP3bn, and the chancellor has not said.
[36] -
09
Whether Thames Water's rescue goes through.
The lenders' plan needs Ofwat to allow special treatment that the UK government has found hard to accept.
[38]
Britain's economy grew 0.1% in August, when analysts had expected it to shrink, and it grew 0.7% over the three months to August.
Also true today
- Only 199,000 people in the US made new claims for unemployment benefits last week, close to historic lows, and most American workers are keeping their jobs.
- Ethiopia's central bank joined PAPSS, Africa's own payment system, which lets firms in more than 15 countries pay each other in their own currencies without going through the US dollar.
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