Day Lila

Finance News · Saturday, 17 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Brent oil touches $110 a barrel for the first time since May, as US diesel nears records and Exxon books $4.5 billion more from refining

31 stories 56 sources

Brent, the main world oil price, closed at $109.86 on Friday after more attacks around Hormuz and a missile aimed at a Saudi oil port, while fuel refiners earned more and truckers paid more.

$109.86

for a barrel of Brent oil at Friday's close, the highest close since mid-May

it touched $110 during the day [2]

$6.33

for a gallon of diesel at US pumps on Friday

more than 70% above a year earlier, AAA says [1]

$4.5bn

extra refining profit Exxon expects for July to September

compared with April to June; its full results come on 30 October [5][6]

The lead story — what happened

  • Brent, the main world oil price, touched $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May. [1] It closed at $109.86, up 3.7% on the day. [2]
  • West Texas Intermediate, the main US oil price, closed at $101.41, its first finish above $100 in nearly a month. [2] It rose more than 10% over the week, and Brent nearly 5%. [1]
  • Traders were reacting to more attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane most Gulf oil passes through. [1] A missile aimed at Yanbu, a Saudi port that lets oil avoid the strait, was shot down. [3]
  • Crude oil shipped through Hormuz fell to 9.4 million barrels a day in the week to Wednesday, Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, counted. [1] That is about 70% of the amount before the war. [1]
  • US stocks of crude also fell by more than 8 million barrels in the week to 9 October, after Hurricane Isaias shut oil wells on the Gulf Coast. [1]
  • The scarcest fuel is diesel, not crude. [4] Wholesale diesel prices in the US and Europe have more than doubled this year. [4]
  • In New York, diesel sells for more than $100 a barrel above crude. [4] That gap, called the crack spread, is a measure of what refiners earn. [4]
  • US drivers paid $6.33 a gallon for diesel on Friday, more than 70% above a year earlier, AAA, a US motoring group, said. [1]
  • ExxonMobil, the biggest US oil company, said higher refining margins added about $4.5 billion to its July-to-September profit, compared with the three months before. [5] Its shares rose as much as 1.5%. [6]
  • Lower crude prices in the quarter cut about $1.3 billion from Exxon's oil-pumping profit. [5] So the gain came from making fuel, not from pumping oil. [5]
  • JB Hunt, a big US trucking company, fell as much as 3.2% after its costs, as a share of sales, came in higher than analysts expected. [6]
  • A grocery chain told the US central bank's survey of businesses that trucking a head of lettuce from California now costs more than the lettuce itself. [7]
  • The International Energy Agency, which coordinates rich countries' emergency oil stocks, agreed on Thursday to release more than 20 million more barrels. [2] It says global oil storage is not tight. [2]
  • On Wall Street, energy and utility shares were the day's biggest gainers while technology shares fell. [8]

7 of 10

Crude through Hormuz, week to Wednesday

For every 10 barrels that crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day before the war, about 7 crossed in the week to Wednesday.

Who is involved

  • ExxonMobil

    the biggest US oil company; it said dearer fuel added about $4.5 billion to its refining profit

  • The International Energy Agency (IEA)

    the body that tracks oil for rich countries and runs their emergency stocks; it is releasing more barrels

  • Kpler

    a firm that tracks ships and cargoes; it counted Hormuz crude at about 70% of pre-war flows

  • JB Hunt

    one of the biggest US trucking companies; its higher costs knocked its shares

How it unfolded

  1. 28 Feb The US-Iran war begins [22]
  2. May Brent is last at $110 before Friday [1]
  3. Thu 15 Oct The IEA agrees to release more than 20 million more barrels [2]
  4. Fri 16 Oct Brent touches $110 and closes at $109.86 [2]
  5. 30 Oct Exxon reports its full quarterly results [6]

Where this points

Watch next week's count of crude crossing Hormuz, which Kpler put at about 70% of pre-war flows, and Exxon's results on 30 October, which will show how much refiners keep. [1][6]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Fuel costs spreading High↑

Prices of goods the US buys from abroad rose 8.1% in a year, the most since July 2022. [9] Imported fuel alone rose 4.8% in September. [9] The US secretary of state is visiting a giant Indian refinery as US diesel prices surge. [10]

Lenders charging AI firms more High↑

Buyers of CoreWeave's June bonds now demand 15% a year, against 9.675% when they were sold. [11] A Bloomberg Intelligence analyst said dearer loans for AI firms raise doubts about banks' income from arranging them. [12] An IMF official warned that AI debts may be hard to repay if AI earns too little. [13]

Money leaving AI shares Building↑

The Nasdaq, a US index full of tech firms, fell 4.5% this week. [14] India's software shares rose 11.7% as buyers moved out of chip shares elsewhere in Asia. [15] Rich countries' government bonds were on course for their best week since late May. [8]

Banks facing new taxes and rulings Building↑

The UK finance minister is expected to raise the extra tax on bank profits to 8% from 3%. [16] India's top court upheld a ruling against Yes Bank's 2020 write-off of some of its bonds. [17] US officials pressed China to let Mastercard and Citigroup work there more freely. [18]

Africa looking for investors Building↑

Orders for Dangote Refinery's shares came to three or four times the target, its owner said. [19] A Nigerian lender and an investment firm launched a $200 million fund for small businesses. [20] Limpopo, a South African province, collected 138 billion rand of investment pledges. [21]

The rest of the day

30 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    US tech shares have their worst week since June

    The Nasdaq, a US share index full of technology firms, fell 2.1% on Friday and 4.5% over the week, its worst week since June. [14] The S&P 500, which tracks 500 big US companies, fell 1.1% on Friday. [14] Chip makers led the fall, and Micron, which makes memory chips, was down 3.9% in morning trading. [23] The VIX, a gauge of how much traders expect share prices to swing, rose above 22 for the first time in four months. [24]

    Why it matters — The Dow, an index of 30 big US firms, still rose over the week, because banks and other shares gained while tech fell. [14][25] Tesla, SpaceX and Meta report their profits next week, the next test for AI shares. [24]

  2. 03

    CoreWeave's boss has sold nearly $1 billion of its shares

    CoreWeave, which rents out computers for AI, was on course to lose about a quarter of its share value this week. [26][8] Filings show that its chief executive, Michael Intrator, and entities linked to him have sold nearly $1 billion of its shares since it listed in March 2025. [26] Most of the sales ran under plans set in advance. [26] Buyers of bonds it sold in June at 9.675% a year now demand 15%. [11]

    Why it matters — Max Frumes of 9fin, a firm that tracks company debt, expects other AI borrowers to follow CoreWeave into trouble. [11] Jefferies, an investment bank, called the fall overdone, but said new loans may cost CoreWeave more. [27]

  3. 04

    Long US bonds rally, short ones struggle

    Buyers piled into government bonds this week as AI shares fell. [8] The US ten-year bond had its best week since February, and its yield, the yearly return it pays, ended at 5.097%. [14] Bonds of the G7, seven big rich economies, were on course for their strongest week since late May. [8] Short-term US loans did worse: an eight-week Treasury bill auction drew record-low demand at 4.05%, the highest in over a year. [28]

    Why it matters — The US Treasury has sold nearly $100 billion of new bills this month to pay for a widening budget deficit. [28] Barclays, a bank, expects more than $320 billion more in the next six weeks. [28]

  4. 05

    US import prices rise fastest in four years

    Prices of goods the US buys from abroad rose 1.1% in September, above the 0.8% economists expected, the US Labor Department said on Friday. [9] Over a year they rose 8.1%, the most since July 2022. [9] These figures leave out tariffs, the US taxes on imports. [9] Imported fuel rose 4.8% in the month, and prices without food and fuel still rose 0.7%. [9]

    Why it matters — It came after faster rises in shop and factory prices earlier in the week, so price rises are spreading beyond energy. [9] Markets still expect the US central bank to hold rates in October and raise them in December. [9]

  5. 06

    US bank shares fall for a sixth week

    The KBW Bank Index, which tracks 24 big US banks, fell nearly 1% this week, its sixth weekly fall in a row. [12] That is its longest losing run since 2008, and it sits about 13% below its August record. [12] Citigroup, State Street, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley did worst. [12] JPMorgan was the exception, up about 2% for the week. [12]

    Why it matters — Herman Chan of Bloomberg Intelligence said rates staying high for longer raise the risk of slower growth and more unpaid loans. [12] He also named AI programs that act for customers as a long-term threat to the cheap deposits banks profit from. [12]

  6. 07

    First Horizon sells $4.5 billion of old mortgages at a loss

    First Horizon, a US bank based in Tennessee, agreed to sell about $4.5 billion of home loans at roughly a 10% discount, it told analysts on Thursday. [29] The loans pay an average of 3.85% a year, low next to today's rates. [29] The sale cost it $473 million, and the bank reported a net loss of about $79 million for the quarter. [29] The buyer was not named. [29]

    Why it matters — Its chief executive, Bryan Jordan, said the bank is selling now because it became clear rates are rising. [29] The bank expects the sale to lift its 2027 earnings per share by about 4%. [29]

  7. 08

    Chip-tool makers fall ten days running

    KLA, Lam Research and Applied Materials make the machines that build computer chips. [30][31][32] By Friday morning KLA and Lam were on course for ten straight days of falls, the longest runs in records going back to the 1980s. [30][31] Lam was down about 22% over those ten days, and Applied Materials about 22% over nine. [31][32] A wider index of chip shares was heading for its steepest eight-day fall since April 2025. [23]

    How far each share had fallen this week, as of Friday morning in New York.

    Why it matters — All three were still up 40% to 64% this year on Friday morning, so the fall takes back part of a big rise. [30][31][32] Lam reports its results next week. [25]

  8. 09

    UK bank shares fall on a tax plan

    Shares in Lloyds fell 1.8% and NatWest 1.5% on Friday, on reports that the UK government will raise its extra tax on bank profits. [16] John Healey, the UK finance minister, is expected to lift it to 8% from 3% in his budget on 28 October. [16] The rise could bring in about GBP2 billion a year, and analysts at KBW say it could cut banks' earnings by 6%. [16] Helge Berger, a senior IMF official, said the UK would do better to trim pension and benefit spending instead. [33]

    Why it matters — The four biggest UK banks made GBP29.2 billion in profit in the first half and pledged GBP13.7 billion of it to shareholders. [33] UK Finance, the banks' lobby group, says the tax would leave lending GBP10.4 billion lower by 2029-30. [33]

  9. 10

    India's software shares have their best week since 2008

    The Nifty IT index, which tracks India's software and outsourcing firms, rose 11.7% this week, its biggest weekly gain since April 2008. [15] Six of its ten firms gained more than 10%, led by Tech Mahindra at 18.7%. [34] Buyers came back after better-than-expected results, and as money left AI chip shares in South Korea and elsewhere in Asia. [15][35] The rupee closed at 94.96 to the dollar, its first close below 95 in 38 days. [15]

    Why it matters — The index is still down about 16% this year, after fears that AI tools would replace outsourcing work. [15][35] Three of the four biggest firms just had their weakest July-to-September quarter in three years. [35]

  10. 11

    Ships crowd a UAE port outside Hormuz

    Fujairah, a port in the United Arab Emirates that lies outside the Strait of Hormuz, is growing fast as trade moves around the strait. [22] Transfers of cargo from one ship to another there rose from a handful before the war to 120 in September. [22] A pipeline from Abu Dhabi, opened in 2012, can carry 1.8 million barrels of crude a day to the port. [22] Lorries queue for about 10 miles to get in. [22]

    Why it matters — Insurers say they need six months of stable peace before they cut war-risk premiums there. [22] Off India's coast, Gulf producers made 82 ship-to-ship transfers in September, about 680,000 barrels a day, Vortexa, a ship-tracking firm, counted. [2]

  11. 12

    Iran gets some gas and jet fuel past the US blockade

    Iran has exported some liquefied petroleum gas, a cooking and heating fuel, and some jet fuel since July despite a US naval blockade, Reuters reported. [36] UANI, a US group that tracks Iran's tankers, counted at least eight gas tankers leaving since mid-July, carrying about 4.1 million barrels. [36] One tanker of jet fuel reached Myanmar in September. [36] Iran's crude exports fell to zero in September, Kpler counted. [36]

    Why it matters — A US Treasury spokesperson said such ship data should be treated with caution, because ships can fake their positions. [36] The US military says it turned back 135 ships in the blockade's first three months. [36]

  12. 13

    Rubio to visit the world's biggest refinery

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, will visit Jamnagar in India on a trip from 17 to 22 October. [10] Jamnagar is the world's largest refinery, owned by Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, and can process 1.4 million barrels of crude a day. [10] Reliance plans a large new refinery in Texas. [10] Analysts told CNBC that Reliance is well placed to sell diesel to the US. [10]

    Why it matters — US diesel prices are near records ahead of November's US elections, and the Trump administration is looking for more fuel. [10] It has already paused sanctions so that Russia can sell diesel abroad. [10]

  13. 14

    US-Mexico trade talks stall

    Trade talks between the US and Mexico ran into trouble this week. [37] Howard Lutnick, the US commerce secretary, objected to big cuts in US tariffs, taxes on imports, on Mexican steel, aluminium and cars. [38][37] Mexico is the biggest trading partner of the US. [37] US talks with India, by contrast, were close to a deal, the US ambassador to India said. [37]

    Why it matters — The US, Mexico and Canada trade under one shared agreement. [37] An expert warned that undoing more of it could hurt many US companies and make US goods dearer. [37]

  14. 15

    US presses China to open to Mastercard and Citi

    US Treasury officials pressed China this week to let Mastercard and Citigroup do more business there, a US official told CNBC. [18] The meetings were held in Bangkok, Thailand, beside the IMF and World Bank meetings. [18] Mastercard wants to run card payments in China on its own, not through a local partner. [18] Citigroup wants a licence to trade and sell Chinese shares itself. [18]

    Why it matters — China approved Visa on 13 October to start preparing its own card network there. [18] Trump and Xi Jinping, China's leader, are expected to meet again in Shenzhen in November. [18]

  15. 16

    A billionaire's insurers kept 'short' loans for years

    Insurers owned by Mark Walter, who also owns the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, rolled six-month loans over and over for years, a Bloomberg analysis found. [39] One $40 million loan made in 2018 was still unpaid last December. [39] US rules ask insurers to set aside as little as 0.39% against some short loans, but up to 30% against risky long ones. [39] Almost all the loans went to firms Walter controls. [39]

    Money an insurer may have to set aside for each $100 lent. Booking a loan as short can shrink the amount held back.

    Why it matters — The US Justice Department and the SEC, the US market regulator, are looking into why more than $20 billion of loans to Walter's own firms were not disclosed. [39] On Thursday Joshua Wander pleaded guilty to fraud. [40] His firm, 777 Partners, had put insurance customers' money into risky bets, a 2023 Semafor investigation found. [40]

  16. 17

    Travelers beats forecasts and still falls

    Travelers, a big US insurer, earned $9.18 a share in July to September, against the $7.42 analysts expected. [41] Its shares still fell 4% before trading began on Friday. [41] Investment gains lifted its profit. [42] Alcoa, which makes aluminium, rose more than 2% after beating forecasts, helped by a rebound in alumina, the powder aluminium is made from. [41] Regions Financial, a US bank, said its interest income grew 3.3%. [42]

    Profit per share for July to September. Travelers earned far more than forecast, and its shares still fell 4% before the open.

    Why it matters — More companies report next week, and S&P 500 firms are expected to show profit growth of more than 30% for the quarter. [25]

  17. 18

    Tesla shares rise after a 'flying' sports car

    Tesla shares rose about 4% before trading on Friday, after it showed a new Roadster sports car. [43] The car uses air thrusters built with SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket company, and leapt into the air in a filmed demonstration. [44][43] Production is due in 2028, at a price above $200,000. [44] SpaceX shares rose 1%. [43]

    Why it matters — On Kalshi, a betting market, the odds of Tesla and SpaceX merging before March rose to 56% from 29%. [45] Barclays now expects a merger could be announced before Tesla's yearly shareholder meeting, due by 6 December. [45]

  18. 19

    Two Wall Street advisers call off a merger

    A planned merger of Perella Weinberg Partners and Piper Sandler, two firms that advise companies on deals, has fallen apart, Semafor reported. [46] Perella's top bankers were offered $2.5 million in shares to stay for up to three years. [46] Other partners were offered $500,000 to $1.5 million. [46] Many called the offers far too low next to the millions they earn each year. [46]

    Why it matters — Perella's shares have lost half their value since early last year. [46] Recruiters at rival banks are already calling its bankers, Semafor said. [46]

  19. 20

    Foreign holdings of US government debt rise

    Foreign holdings of US Treasuries, the US government's bonds, rose more than $83 billion in August to $9.33 trillion, US data showed on Friday. [47] Canada added $38 billion and Belgium nearly $20 billion. [47] Japan, the biggest holder, cut $36 billion to $1.1 trillion. [47] China's holdings fell $27 billion to $591 billion, an 18-year low, and Britain's passed $1 trillion for the first time. [47]

    US government bonds held in August, in billions of dollars. Japan, the biggest holder, had about $1,100 billion.

    Why it matters — The figures count price changes as well as buying and selling. [47] Some analysts think China now buys through other countries such as Canada. [47]

  20. 21

    Court ruling eats into Yes Bank's capital

    India's Supreme Court on Thursday upheld a lower court's ruling against Yes Bank's write-off of 84.15 billion rupees of AT-1 bonds during its 2020 rescue. [17] AT-1 bonds are risky bank bonds that can be cancelled if a bank gets into trouble. [17] Yes Bank said its core capital ratio, the share of its own money held against losses, could fall by about 2.5 percentage points. [17] Its shares fell 14% on Thursday and 3.4% more on Friday. [17]

    Why it matters — Yes Bank, India's central bank and India's government had all appealed, and lost. [17] S&P Global, a ratings firm, said Yes Bank's 13.87% ratio can take the hit and stay well above the 5.5% minimum. [17]

  21. 22

    World Bank aims to lend five times more for minerals

    The World Bank plans to grow its work on critical minerals, metals needed for batteries and power lines, fivefold in five years. [48] Its president, Ajay Banga, said so in Bangkok on Friday. [48] It aims for $19 billion of such financing in 2026-2030, against $3.6 billion in 2021-2025. [48] It has named 20 countries it could work with. [48]

    Why it matters — Banga said the goal is to build mining and processing inside producing countries, so they keep more of the jobs and money. [48] He also launched 'small AI', cheap AI tools for farmers, teachers and health workers in poorer countries. [48]

  22. 23

    US says foreign investment hit a record

    SelectUSA, a US Commerce Department programme that courts foreign companies, says it has secured $280 billion of investment under Trump, across more than 345 projects. [49] Officials said that beats the $255 billion it brought in over the dozen-plus years before. [49] Investors include South Korea's Korea Zinc and Japan's Isuzu Motors. [49] An official said tariffs were used to win investment promises from other countries. [49]

    Why it matters — The figures are the programme's own count, given out less than three weeks before the US elections. [49]

  23. 24

    Dangote's refinery share sale reaches Egypt

    Dangote Refinery, Africa's largest, will offer its shares in Egypt as well as Botswana and Kenya, through depositary receipts, certificates that stand for shares listed elsewhere. [19] The sale began in Nigeria in mid-September and aims to raise $1.6 billion, with a cap of $2.1 billion. [19] Aliko Dangote, its owner, said orders came to three or four times the target. [19] The deadline moved two weeks, to 27 October. [19]

    Why it matters — The lowest price is 40 cents a share, set so that small savers can join. [19] It is Africa's biggest share sale, and policymakers see it as a sign that ordinary buyers can deepen Africa's stock markets. [19]

  24. 25

    Zambia and an Abu Dhabi firm end a copper row

    International Resources Holding (IRH), an Abu Dhabi company, and ZCCM-IH, Zambia's state mining company, said they had settled a dispute over Mopani Copper Mines. [50] In September ZCCM-IH had accused IRH of not putting in money it owed and of taking on debt without approval. [50] IRH paid $620 million in 2024 for 51% of Mopani. [50] The statement left the funding questions open. [50]

    Copper from the Mopani mines: last year's output, and the owner's target. The target is a plan, not a result.

    Why it matters — Zambia wants to more than triple its copper output to 3 million tonnes a year. [50] IRH aims to lift Mopani's output from 66,369 tonnes in 2025 to 300,000 by 2029. [50]

  25. 26

    Nigerian lenders launch a $200 million fund for small firms

    Cascador, a Nigerian investment firm, and Sterling Bank launched a $200 million fund to lend to small and medium-sized businesses. [20] Each business can borrow up to $1 million from it. [20] Cascador found that only 22% of firms in sub-Saharan Africa have a bank loan or credit line, against 36% worldwide. [20] Small and medium firms make up more than 90% of African businesses. [20]

    Why it matters — Africa's small firms are short of finance by an estimated $331 billion, so one fund fills only a sliver of the gap. [20]

  26. 27

    Black-owned South African firms lack $45 billion

    Black-owned businesses in South Africa are short of $45 billion of funding, a report by British International Investment and Sweden's Swedfund found. [51] Both are state-owned lenders that invest in poorer countries. [51] The report blamed open bias among investors, as well as a lack of assets to borrow against. [51] It comes three decades after South Africa began Black Economic Empowerment, rules meant to undo apartheid's harm. [51]

    Why it matters — The US ambassador wants South Africa to scrap those rules for a better investment climate, and its government has refused. [51] Officials are discussing a $60 billion fund for small Black-owned firms instead. [51]

  27. 28

    South African province draws 138 billion rand in pledges

    Limpopo, a mining and farming province in South Africa, collected more than 138 billion rand of investment pledges at its yearly conference, beating a 120 billion rand target. [21] Most went to water and roads, farming, mining and manufacturing. [21] Deputy President Paul Mashatile said the pledges must turn into working projects and jobs. [21] Pledges from 2021 to 2025 came to 452 billion rand. [21]

    Why it matters — Limpopo's unemployment rate is 33%, and its premier aims to bring it under 20%. [21] A pledge is a promise, so the jobs depend on how many projects are actually built. [21]

  28. 29

    Schwab joins a tax-saving trade for the rich

    Charles Schwab, a big US broker, will launch its own 'tax-aware long-short' strategy, its chief executive Rick Wurster said on Thursday. [52] These strategies use borrowed money to help wealthy clients book losses that cut the tax on their gains. [52] Schwab's loans to clients for buying shares rose 14% in the quarter to $187.9 billion. [52] About $60.7 billion of that is tied to these strategies. [52]

    Why it matters — Money in such strategies grew to more than $170 billion this year from $2 billion in 2022, by one estimate. [52] Wurster said they have drawn client money across the industry. [52]

  29. 30

    Reliance pays staff early before Jio's share sale

    Reliance Industries has urged most of its nearly 420,000 staff to consider buying shares in Jio Platforms, its phone and digital arm, people familiar with it told Bloomberg. [53] It paid October salaries about 15 days early, giving workers cash to invest. [53] The $3.2 billion share sale, due next week, is set to be India's biggest. [53][54] The top price is 1,119 rupees a share. [54]

    Why it matters — Meta and Google own about 10% and 7.7% of Jio, and neither is selling. [54] Staff were not told why they were paid early. [53]

  30. 31

    Cult.fit and three others cleared to list in India

    SEBI, India's market regulator, cleared Cult.fit, a fitness chain, to sell shares to the public on Friday. [55] It plans to raise about 9.5 billion rupees from new shares, while existing owners sell up to 178.6 million more. [55] It runs 708 gyms and had more than 987,000 paying members in March. [55] Sohan Lal Commodity Management, Eswari Global Metal Industries and Indian Gas Exchange were cleared too. [55]

    Why it matters — Cult.fit has set no price or date yet. [55] Part of the money would go into opening more gyms. [55]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why money that leaves AI shares has to go somewhere else

A fund that sells AI shares must still hold something, so the money moves into bonds, energy and other shares instead.

The twist

When big funds sell AI shares, they buy something else with the money. So the week that hurt AI shares also lifted government bonds and India's software firms.

The picture

Over the same week, the Nasdaq fell 4.5% and India's software shares rose 11.7%. Some of the money leaving chip shares in Asia went to Indian software firms.

How it works

  1. Investors start to doubt one group of shares
  2. Big funds sell those shares
  3. The funds must still hold something with the cash
  4. They buy what the doubt does not touch
  5. Those prices rise while the first group falls

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • India's software shares have their best week since 2008

    Funds sold AI chip shares in South Korea and elsewhere in Asia, then bought India's older software firms, which already earn steady fees.

  • Long US bonds rally, short ones struggle

    Investors worried about AI firms' debts bought government bonds instead, and the US ten-year bond had its best week since February.

  • Wall Street on Friday

    As tech shares fell on Friday, money went into energy and utility firms, the day's biggest gainers on Wall Street.

  • US tech shares have their worst week since June

    The Nasdaq fell 4.5% but the Dow still rose for the week, because the money stayed in shares, just not in tech.

Where you've seen this

Football transfers

A club that sells a star spends the fee on other players, so one sale pushes up prices elsewhere.

Gold

When people fear for their currency, they swap it for gold, and the gold price rises.

Holidays

When one country looks unsafe, tourists still travel, and hotels in the next country fill up.

The catch

If the fear touches everything, such as a sharp rise in interest rates, funds can sell across the board and sit in cash, and then almost nothing rises.

And the whole of it

A pension saver in Britain, a fund manager in Mumbai and a bond buyer in New York all took part in this one move. Each saw only the price in front of them, and none saw where all the money went.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Brent oil reached $110 on Friday as traders worried about the barrels still crossing Hormuz, but the scarcest fuel is diesel, and refiners such as Exxon are earning billions more from it. [1][5][4] In the same week, lenders started charging AI builders like CoreWeave much more, and investors moved money out of AI shares into bonds and other markets. [11][8]

Who gains

  • Fuel refiners such as ExxonMobil — A diesel shortage lets them sell fuel far above the cost of crude, which added about $4.5 billion to Exxon's quarter. [5][4]
  • Fujairah's port in the UAE — Ships avoiding Hormuz now transfer cargo there, up from a handful before the war to 120 in September. [22]
  • Owners of India's software firms — Money leaving AI chip shares helped add about 3 lakh crore rupees, 3 trillion, to the top ten firms' value this week. [34]
  • New lenders to AI firms — A buyer of CoreWeave's June bonds now earns 15% a year, against 9.675% when they were sold. [11]
  • The UK Treasury — Raising the bank surcharge to 8% could bring in about GBP2 billion a year. [16]

Who pays

  • Anyone who buys diesel or trucked goods — US diesel costs $6.33 a gallon, and a grocer says moving lettuce now costs more than the lettuce. [1][7]
  • Trucking firms such as JB Hunt — Higher costs as a share of sales squeezed its margins and knocked its shares. [6]
  • CoreWeave's shareholders — The shares were on course to lose about a quarter of their value this week. [26]
  • Yes Bank's shareholders — The court ruling cuts its core capital ratio by about 2.5 points, and the shares fell 14% on Thursday. [17]
  • Shareholders of UK lenders such as Lloyds and NatWest — Their shares fell on Friday on the tax plan, which KBW says would cut earnings by 6%. [16]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    How much oil is really getting out of the Gulf.

    Kpler counted crude through Hormuz at about 70% of pre-war flows in the week to Wednesday. [1] The IEA says exports from the Middle East have recovered to pre-crisis levels. [2] Pipelines to ports outside the strait, such as Yanbu and Fujairah, may explain the gap, but neither source splits the figures. [22]

  • 02

    How big Exxon's refining profit will be.

    A BMO analyst reads Exxon's filing as about $8.5 billion of refining profit. [5] Analysts cited by Bloomberg expect about $7.8 billion, which would still be a record. [6] Exxon reports on 30 October. [6]

  • 03

    Whether CoreWeave can keep borrowing at a price it can afford.

    Its June bonds now pay 15% a year. [11] 9fin expects other AI debt to follow it into trouble, while Jefferies calls the fall overdone. [11][27]

  • 04

    Whether the US central bank raises rates on 27-28 October.

    Its chair, Kevin Warsh, again gave no hint. [48] Futures put the odds of a rise at about 17%, and Goldman Sachs expects a pause in October and a rise in December. [27][56]

  • 05

    What the UK budget on 28 October does to bank lending.

    KBW says a surcharge of 8% would cut banks' earnings by 6%. [16] UK Finance says lending would be GBP10.4 billion lower by 2029-30, but that figure comes from research the banks' own lobby group paid for. [33]

  • 06

    How much money Mark Walter's insurers lent to his own firms, and on what terms.

    The insurers do not have to report what the short loans are or how risky they are. [39] US investigators are looking at more than $20 billion of undisclosed loans to his firms. [39]

  • 07

    Whether Iran's fuel is leaking past the blockade in growing amounts.

    UANI counts a handful of gas tankers, while the US Treasury says ship-tracking data can be faked. [36]

  • 08

    Whether the US-Mexico trade talks survive.

    Lutnick's objection is reported, but neither government has set a new date for talks. [37]

  • 09

    How many of Limpopo's 138 billion rand of pledges become projects.

    Of the 452 billion rand pledged in 2021-2025, 71 billion has turned into real investment so far. [21]

04 Hope carry this

Orders for shares in Dangote Refinery, Africa's largest, came to three or four times the $1.6 billion target. The lowest price was set at 40 cents a share so that small savers could buy in.

Also true today

  • Cascador, a Nigerian investment firm, and Sterling Bank launched a $200 million fund that will lend up to $1 million each to small businesses.
  • India's rupee closed below 95 to the dollar for the first time in 38 days, after its biggest weekly gain in seven months.

Across the beats