Finance News · Thursday, 29 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

The US central bank holds its rate at 3.75-4% in a 10-2 vote, with two officials wanting a rise, as inflation runs at 3.7% and traders bet on a December increase

The Federal Reserve held its rate for the first time since September's rise, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for another; Canada raised its rate, Lagarde said she will leave the ECB early, and Alphabet fell 10% before New York opened.

3.75% to 4%

the US central bank's main rate, left where it was

10 of its 12 voters chose to wait [1]

78%

chance traders give a rise in December

by the CME exchange's FedWatch count on Thursday [6]

3.7%

rise in US prices in the year to September

up from 3.4% in August, against a 2% goal [3]

The lead story — what happened

The US central bank held its main interest rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday. [1] The bank, the Federal Reserve, sets what it costs to borrow in US dollars. [3] In September it voted 12-0 to raise rates, its first rise since 2023. [15]
This time 10 of its 12 voters chose to wait, and 2 wanted a quarter-point rise. [1] The two were Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, and Beth Hammack, who runs the Cleveland Fed. [4] Cook had never voted against the group since joining the board in 2022. [1] A governor and a regional bank head last dissented on the same side in 1992. [1] Donald Trump, the US president, has tried to fire Cook. [1] Trump has said US interest rates should be 1% or less. [3]
US prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August. [3] The US Fed's goal is for prices to rise 2% a year. [3] Kevin Warsh, the chair, said they would "take stock of where we are" before acting. [1] He said borrowing got harder after September's rise, a sign it is starting to work. [14] But he said he was "unwilling and unable" to call borrowing conditions tight. [11] The US Fed also upgraded its view of the US economy from solid to strong. [5]
Traders now see a 78% chance of a rise at the US Fed's December meeting. [6] The rate on two-year US government loans fell to 4.712% in Asian trading. [6] That two-year rate moves with what traders expect the US Fed to do. [6] The rate on ten-year loans rose to 5.042% just after Warsh spoke. [5] Lenders asking more for long loans suggests some doubt inflation will fall in time. [7] Of the hold, bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach said, "What are you waiting for?" [9] The S&P 500, an index of 500 big US companies, rose 0.3% on Wednesday. [8]
Warsh also said the US Fed will hold fewer meetings that vote on rates. [2] In 2027, 1 of its 8 meetings will discuss only strategy, with no rate vote. [2] In 2028, 2 meetings will be for strategy, leaving 6 chances to change rates. [2]
Warsh said "politics played no role in the decision". [3] The US votes in midterm elections on 3 November, less than a week later. [23] US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said another rise would "not necessarily" be a mistake. [10]

Who is involved

Kevin Warsh

chair of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank; he gave no hint about December
Lisa Cook

a governor on the US Fed's board whom Trump has tried to fire; she voted for a rise
Beth Hammack

head of the Cleveland Fed, one of its regional banks; she voted for a rise
Scott Bessent

the US Treasury Secretary; he said another rise would not necessarily be a mistake
Donald Trump

the US president; he wants rates of 1% or less

How it unfolded

Sept the US Fed raises rates 12-0, its first rise since 2023 [15]
28 Oct the US Fed holds at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote [1]
Thu the PCE price figure is due [13]
3 Nov US midterm elections [23]
Dec the next Fed meeting, with a 78% chance of a rise priced in [6]

Where this points

Fewer votes means fewer set dates when the cost of borrowing can change. [2] The rate sets what people pay on mortgages and credit cards, and earn on some savings. [3] Warsh said high rates are cooling the AI boom as investors push back on tech borrowers. [4] The next test is PCE, a US price figure due Thursday, then December's meeting. [13]

Signals on this beat

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.

Central banks fighting dear energy High↑

The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.5% so dear energy does not spread into all prices. [16] Two of the US Fed's voters wanted a rise too. [1] The European Central Bank decides on Thursday, with euro-area inflation at a three-year high. [25]

Investors counting AI cash Building↑

Alphabet, Google's owner, spent $9.07bn more than its businesses brought in, and its shares fell 10% before trading opened. [28] Microsoft kept its spending inside its cash and rose nearly 4%. [28] Bank of America expects a record $175bn of company bonds in November, mostly for AI. [7]

War-time fuel prices High→

Shell, Europe's biggest oil company, nearly doubled its profit as damaged refineries left too little fuel. [36][37] Britain doubled a tax on bank profits to pay for help with energy bills. [39] Oil eased 0.7% to $114.50 a barrel on hopes of peace talks with Iran. [44]

The rest of the day

30 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Canada raises its rate to 2.5%

The Bank of Canada raised its main interest rate a quarter point, to 2.5%, on Wednesday. [16] It was the bank's first rise since July 2023. [17] Canada's prices rose 3.2% in a year to September, above its 1% to 3% band. [18] The bank now expects 3.1% inflation in 2027, up from the 2% it forecast in July. [16] It also raised this year's growth forecast to 1.0%, from 0.7% in July. [16]

Why it matters — A higher rate will likely push up Canadian loan and mortgage costs, Reuters reported. [16] Governor Tiff Macklem said of any further rise, "we will proceed carefully." [16]
03
Britain's borrowing costs ease after the Budget

On Wednesday Britain's ten-year borrowing rate dipped to 5.321% as the Budget held no big surprises. [20] By Thursday morning it had slipped to 5.308%. [19] City economists called John Healey's first Budget as chancellor a "no harm" budget. [19] The official forecaster, the OBR, cut 2027 growth to 1% from 1.5%. [21] It sees prices rising 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2027. [23] Prices only get back to the 2% goal in 2028, a year later than March's forecast. [21] The room left under the borrowing rules shrank to £15bn, from £23.6bn in March. [21]

Why it matters — Higher interest on its debt costs the UK government an extra £14bn this year. [19] Markets still expect the Bank of England to raise rates next month. [22]
04
Lagarde will leave the ECB early

Christine Lagarde will step down as head of the European Central Bank on 7 February. [24] Her term was due to end in October 2027, nearly nine months later. [25] The ECB sets interest rates for the 21 countries that use the euro. [25] European Union leaders will choose her successor, and the search starts at once. [24] Klaas Knot of the Netherlands and Spain's Pablo Hernandez de Cos are seen as favourites. [19]

Why it matters — A Berenberg economist says this way the choice is made before France's 2027 election. [19] The ECB announces its own rate decision at 13:15 GMT on Thursday. [26]
05
Alphabet's shares fall 10% before New York opens

Shares in Alphabet, Google's owner, were 10% lower before New York trading opened on Thursday. [28] A close over 9.77% lower would be its worst day after results since listing in 2004. [28] Its sales rose 25% to $127.6bn in the three months to September. [29] Its operating profit, from running its businesses, rose 30% to $40.6bn. [29] But its final profit fell 25% to $26.2bn. [27] An $8.7bn loss on its stake in SpaceX pulled that profit down. [27] Its spending was $9.07bn more than the cash its businesses brought in; analysts expected $2.70bn. [28]

Why it matters — Alphabet still plans to spend $195bn to $205bn this year, mostly on data centres and chips. [27]
06
Microsoft rises as it keeps spending inside its cash

Microsoft's shares were nearly 4% higher before Thursday's open, after results beat forecasts. [28] Its sales rose 19% to $92.3bn in the three months to September. [32] Its profit was $36.6bn, above the $35.1bn analysts expected. [33] Azure, its business renting out computing power, grew 48%. [31] It spent $45.2bn on buildings and equipment, less than the $50.67bn analysts expected. [31] The cash left after spending fell 27% to $18.63bn but stayed above zero. [28] Its adjusted profit left out a loss of about $200m on its stake in OpenAI. [31]

Why it matters — Finance chief Amy Hood said "we still have demand that exceeds supply." [31] One analyst said Microsoft builds "in a measured way", so it holds fewer surprises. [28]
07
Samsung falls despite a record profit

Samsung Electronics made a record 107.44 trillion won of operating profit in its latest quarter. [34] No big tech firm had topped 100 trillion won, about $74.52bn, in a quarter before. [35] Its chip business, lifted by AI demand for memory, made nearly all of that profit. [34] Yet its shares closed 4.13% lower in Seoul on Thursday. [34] It has paid or planned 35 trillion won of the 90 to 110 trillion it promised. [35] The detailed plan for paying shareholders comes only in January, which disappointed investors. [34]

Why it matters — Its rival SK Hynix set out a $75bn plan for shareholders a day earlier. [35] Samsung's fall pulled South Korea's main share index, the Kospi, down 2.1%. [14]
08
Shell's profit nearly doubles on fuel shortages

Shell, Europe's biggest oil and gas company, made $10.8bn in its latest quarter. [37] That is nearly double the $5.43bn it made a year earlier. [37] Its refineries earned a record $42 a barrel, against the old record of $28.04 in 2022. [36] Damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia left the world short of fuel. [37] Shell will buy back $5bn of its own shares over three months, up from $3bn. [37] Its shares rose about 3% to a record high in London. [36]

Why it matters — Shell is now the biggest company on London's FTSE 100 index. [37] Greenpeace, a campaign group, said oil bosses "cash in on our misery". [37]
09
Lloyds' profit doubles as its tax goes up

Lloyds, a big UK bank, said its profit before tax rose 99% to £2.33bn. [40] Most of the jump came because last year's £800m car-loan charge did not repeat. [40] Its income rose 9% to £5.07bn. [40] On Wednesday the chancellor doubled the extra tax on bank profits from 3% to 6%. [39] He said it lasts 15 months, to pay for help with energy bills. [39]

Why it matters — Finance chief William Chalmers said he sees no obvious link between energy prices and bank taxes. [39] Spain's 2022 bank tax was meant to last two years and was extended three more. [39]
10
Volkswagen has its biggest loss in a decade

Volkswagen, Germany's biggest carmaker, lost €4.2bn before tax from July to September. [19] It was its biggest loss since the end of 2015. [19] A €6.4bn cut in the value of its stake in Porsche drove the loss. [19] Its sales fell 11% to 5.9m cars in nine months, mostly because of China. [19] It is cutting up to 100,000 jobs, many of them in Germany. [19]

Why it matters — Its finance chief said earnings are "too low to continue investing strongly in our future." [19] Its shares fell 1.6% as nine-month operating profit fell 98.7%. [38]
11
Thames Water's lenders vote on a £2.4bn loan

Lenders to Thames Water vote on Thursday on an emergency loan of £2.4bn. [41] The company supplies 16 million customers in London and the Thames Valley. [41] It owes about £20bn, and its owners walked away in 2024. [41] The lenders, including BlackRock and Elliott, lent it £3bn last year at 9.75% interest. [41] The new loan would take the total to £5.4bn and keep it running to autumn 2027. [41]

Why it matters — A campaign group says the interest could add £40 to each home's bill if passed on. [41] The lenders say the cost will not be added to bills. [41] Prime Minister Andy Burnham is weighing whether to bring it under state control. [41]
12
A 90-year-old Wall Street law firm plans to close

Weil, Gotshal & Manges, a Wall Street law firm over 90 years old, plans to close. [42] Its managers asked the partners, the lawyers who own it, to vote to wind it down. [42] It has about 1,200 lawyers and reportedly earned more than $2bn in 2025. [42] Nearly two dozen partners have left since mid-September, many to rival firms. [43] Merger talks with another firm, Willkie Farr & Gallagher, broke down days ago. [42]

Why it matters — Weil worked on famous bankruptcies, including Lehman Brothers, General Motors and Enron. [42] Semafor says rival firms now lure star lawyers with pay guaranteed for two or three years. [43]
13
Oil eases on hopes of Iran talks

Brent, the main world oil price, fell 0.7% to $114.50 a barrel early Thursday. [44] Prices had risen on Wednesday after Yemen's Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia's largest refinery. [45] US Vice President JD Vance wrote to Iran's security chief to restart peace talks, reports say. [44] An Iranian official called a new Qatari draft deal "unacceptable ideas". [44]

Why it matters — Traders also fear US strikes on Iran after the US vote on 3 November. [44] Even after the fall, oil stayed above $100 a barrel. [14]
14
China's tech shares fall hard

Shanghai's STAR50 index of tech companies fell 4.2% by midday Thursday. [46] The wider Shanghai Composite fell 0.9%. [46] Hong Kong's tech shares fell 2%, while its main index edged up 0.1%. [46] Taiwan's main index fell 1.1%, while Japan's Nikkei rose 1.0%. [14]

Why it matters — Selling of AI-linked shares outweighed the US Fed's decision to hold, Reuters reported. [46] Investors in Asia also weighed company results on top of the US Fed. [14]
15
Indian shares rise as the rupee slips

India's Sensex share index rose more than 600 points to above 73,860 on Thursday. [47] Traders credited the US Fed's hold; Adani Ports led with a rise of over 4%. [47] Kotak Mahindra Bank rose 4.3%, its highest close since April 2025. [49] But the rupee slipped 0.15% to 95.3675 to the dollar, a two-week low. [48] Traders said firms bought dollars to repay foreign debts, and India's central bank stepped in. [48]

Why it matters — Foreign funds have pulled record sums out of Indian shares, Jefferies, an investment bank, says. [50] Jefferies says a cut in India's tax on long-held share gains could bring them back. [50]
16
UK mortgage approvals hit a near three-year low

UK lenders approved 53,443 mortgages to buy homes in September, Bank of England figures show. [19] That is the lowest since December 2023, and 19.4% fewer than a year before. [19] Economists had expected about 54,000. [19] It was the third monthly fall in a row. [19] Card and other consumer lending grew 9.8% in a year, the fastest since April 2018. [19]

Why it matters — Anthony Codling, an analyst at RBC, said demand for homes remains "stubbornly subdued". [19]
17
Premier Inn's owner expects a smaller tax bill

Whitbread, owner of Premier Inn hotels, expects £45m to £60m less property tax by 2029. [19] Business rates are a tax that firms pay on shops, hotels and other premises. [22] The Budget holds their rise to inflation for two years, until 2028. [19] It had expected its rates bill to rise £35m; now it sees £7.5m to £12.5m. [19] Its boss, Dominic Paul, said the change will "do much to mitigate" past budgets' damage. [19]

Why it matters — A pub owner called it "like letting the tyres down and then handing you a pump." [51] The Pets Corner chain says its costs still rise faster than its sales. [51]
18
Oracle jumps after limiting new fundraising

Oracle's shares rose 10.73% on Wednesday, the top gain in the S&P 500. [52] Oracle, a big US software and cloud firm, will cap new fundraising at $20bn through 2030. [8] It also expects to bring in more cash than it spends by its 2028 financial year. [8] Shares barely moved on the US Fed and only woke up at Oracle's news, Barron's said. [8]

Why it matters — Tech firms now borrow or sell shares to pay for AI, not just use their cash. [12]
19
AI borrowing floods the bond market

Bank of America expects strong US firms to sell a record $175bn of bonds in November. [7] That compares with about $100bn in October, and AI is the main reason. [7] Big US tech firms will borrow over $200bn for AI this year, perhaps near $250bn. [7] Riskier borrowers are starting to feel the strain, Reuters reported. [7] Interest on some debt of neoclouds, firms that rent out AI computers, has reached double digits. [53]

Why it matters — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that debt is not "problematic at all". [53] He said neoclouds such as CoreWeave and Nebius are a small part of AI. [53]
20
Ford beats forecasts but sees a flat 2027

Ford earned 49 cents a share in its latest quarter, above the 40 cents expected. [54] Its car sales of $46.08bn came in a little below forecasts. [54] Ford said its 2027 profit will be roughly in line with this year's. [54] It narrowed this year's profit forecast to $10.5bn to $11bn, before interest and tax. [54] Its electric car unit, Model e, will lose about $4bn this year. [54]

Why it matters — Ford is still recovering from supplier problems that hit its F-Series pickup trucks. [54]
21
FedEx raises its forecast

FedEx, the US parcel company, raised its forecast for the year after beating estimates. [55] It now expects $18 to $18.60 of profit a share, up from $16.90 to $18.10. [55] Its reported profit fell to $290m from $650m a year earlier. [55] Leaving out one-off items, such as losses on short-term investments, it earned $3.74 a share. [55] It is its first report since FedEx moved its year-end to 31 December. [55]

Why it matters — FedEx said it earned more per parcel and carried more of them in the US. [55]
22
US restaurant chains report

Chipotle's shares rose 7% after its boss said sales growth will continue. [56] Sales at its older restaurants grew for a third quarter in a row. [56] Its boss said lower-income customers spent more than richer ones, a first this year. [56] Restaurant Brands said US sales at older Burger King restaurants rose 8.4%. [57] Sales at its Popeyes chicken chain in the US fell 2.2%. [57]

Why it matters — Chipotle expects growth of about 2% in the last three months of the year. [56]
23
Two big drug makers raise their forecasts

Eli Lilly, maker of the weight-loss drug Zepbound, raised its 2026 sales forecast on Thursday. [58] It now expects $91bn to $92bn, up from $85bn to $87bn. [58] Demand for Zepbound and its diabetes drug Mounjaro beat forecasts again. [58] Sales of its new weight-loss pill, Foundayo, were slightly below what analysts expected. [58] Merck, which makes the cancer drug Keytruda, also raised its profit forecast. [59] A new injected form of Keytruda sold $830m, its best quarter since its 2025 launch. [59]

Why it matters — Merck is racing to replace Keytruda's sales before key patents start to expire in 2028. [59]
24
Visa and Citi win approvals in China

Tencent, which runs China's Weixin app, and Visa signed a deal on cross-border payments. [60] Visa won approval to prepare a bank-card clearing business inside China. [60] Citi, a big US bank, got approval to set up its own securities firm in China. [60] The deal aims to let travellers pay shops through Weixin Pay and Visa's network. [60]

Why it matters — The approvals open more of China's payments market to US firms. [60]
25
Some BP directors want to break it up

Some board members at BP, a UK oil giant worth $129bn, favour a break-up, Semafor reports. [61] Its chief executive, Meg O'Neill, appears to oppose it, and nothing has been decided. [61] A BP spokesperson called the report "categorically false". [61] BP reports its results on Friday. [61]

Why it matters — A break-up could start a rush among other oil majors for BP's parts. [61] It could anger the UK government if part of BP then listed in the US. [61]
26
GM moves its shares to the Nasdaq

General Motors is moving its share listing from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq. [62] It wants to join the Nasdaq's tech-heavy index, which would bring new investors. [62] GM shares rose 5% on the day it moved. [62] Walmart made the same switch last year, aiming for $19bn of index-fund money. [62] Hilton, the hotel group, announced its own move last week. [62]

Why it matters — Semafor says GM still trades like an old carmaker, not a tech company. [62]
27
Wall Street bosses keep coming to the Gulf

Bosses of Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone and KKR toured the Gulf this week despite the war. [63] Saudi Arabia's yearly investment meeting, FII, was postponed after Houthi attacks. [63] Apollo's Marc Rowan expects Gulf states to spend $1 trillion protecting their infrastructure. [63] Bahrain's Investcorp joined Saudi investors to buy REDA Gulf, a fire safety firm. [64] It is one of the first foreign deals in Saudi Arabia since the war escalated. [64]

Why it matters — The buyers bet REDA can list its shares within a few years, though Saudi listings slumped. [64]
28
Canada and the UAE sign a trade pact

Canada and the United Arab Emirates signed a trade pact on Tuesday. [65] Their trade outside oil rose about 20% in 2025 to $4.2bn. [65] The UAE pledged last November to invest $50bn in Canada. [65] Canada hopes to sell more planes, cereals, machines and vehicles there. [65]

Why it matters — Prime Minister Mark Carney wants new partners to offset a strained trade link with the US. [65]
29
Noel Tata leaves six Tata boards

Noel Tata, who chairs Tata Trusts, will leave six Tata company boards on 12 November. [66] He turns 70 that day, the group's retirement age for non-executive directors. [66] He stays on the board of Tata Sons, the group's holding company. [66] He has fought Tata Sons over a new five-year term for its chairman, N Chandrasekaran. [66] Its board approved that term by 4 votes to 1, with Noel Tata against. [66]

Why it matters — Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi said Tata is being "criminally destroyed". [67] Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman accused him of turning a business matter into politics. [67]
30
Hyundai India rises despite a profit fall

Hyundai Motor India's shares rose over 5% on Thursday despite a 23.9% fall in profit. [68] Higher costs for materials cut its profit to Rs 1,196.16 crore. [68] It sold a record 219,072 cars in the quarter, up 15%. [68] Its revenue topped Rs 20,000 crore for the first time. [68]

Why it matters — Its boss expects sales to speed up in the second half of the year. [68]
31
Zerodha's founder says a trading tax backfired

Nithin Kamath, co-founder of the Indian broker Zerodha, says a trading tax has backfired. [69] India raised its tax on trades to curb risky bets on futures and options. [69] Kamath says it pushed some traders into even riskier trades instead. [69] About 50% of futures traders on Zerodha made money, he said. [69] Only 10% of option buyers did. [69]

Why it matters — He called for careful thought about "second- and third-order effects" of rules. [69]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a fall in another company's shares can cut a company's own profit

When a company owns shares in another firm, a drop in their price is counted as a loss in its own profit, even if it sells nothing.

The twist

Alphabet's own businesses earned 30% more than a year ago. Its profit still fell 25%, because SpaceX shares it owns lost value.

The picture

Profit from running its businesses$40.60bn

Profit after the SpaceX loss$26.20bn

Both bars are Alphabet's latest quarter. The gap between them is mostly the fall in value of its SpaceX stake.

How it works

A company buys a stake in another company
Each quarter it counts that stake at its latest value
When the other company's shares fall, the drop goes into its profit as a loss
No cash leaves, and its own business is unchanged
So reported profit can fall while its own business earns more

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

Alphabet's fall before the open

An $8.7bn loss on its SpaceX stake took its final profit to $26.2bn, while profit from running its businesses rose to $40.6bn.
Volkswagen's biggest loss in a decade

A €6.4bn cut in the value of its stake in Porsche turned the quarter into a €4.2bn loss.
Microsoft's rise

Its own adjusted figure left out a loss of about $200m on its stake in OpenAI.
FedEx's raised forecast

Losses on short-term investments helped cut its reported profit to $290m, while its profit without one-off items was $3.74 a share.

Where you've seen this

A pension statement

the savings show a loss after a bad month on the markets, though nothing was sold

A family home

it is worth less on paper when local prices fall, while the family still lives in it

A football club

it writes down a player's value after a bad injury, though the player is still on its books

The catch

A paper loss can turn back into a gain if the shares recover. If the company later sells the stake for less, the loss becomes real cash.

And the whole of it

When SpaceX's shares fell, the loss showed up for SpaceX's own investors, in Alphabet's profit, and for every pension fund that owns Alphabet shares. Each of them saw one part of the chain.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

The US central bank held its rate at 3.75% to 4% while prices rise 3.7% a year, and two of its own voters said it should have raised. [1][3] Its chair, Kevin Warsh, gave no hint about December, so the decision now rests on the next price figures and on the meeting after the 3 November election. [6][13]

Why it works on us — A hold with no hint sounds calm, so the 78% chance traders already put on a December rise is easy to miss. [6]

Who gains

Shell's shareholders — Damaged refineries pushed Shell's refining margin to a record $42 a barrel, and Shell is passing $5bn back through a share buyback. [36][37]
Thames Water's lenders, including BlackRock and Elliott — Their £3bn loan pays 9.75% interest, and a new £2.4bn loan would keep the company running to autumn 2027. [41]
Rival law firms such as Cravath and Simpson Thacher — Weil's head of mergers took a team of partners to Cravath, and six private-equity partners went to Simpson Thacher. [43]
Whitbread, owner of Premier Inn — A two-year cap on business rate rises cuts its expected tax by £45m to £60m by 2029. [19]
Savers with US bank accounts — Holding the rate at 3.75% to 4% keeps up what some savings accounts pay. [3]

Who pays

US home buyers and card users — The rate stays where it is, and traders expect it to rise in December. [3][6]
Canadian borrowers — The Bank of Canada's rise to 2.5% is likely to push up loan and mortgage costs. [16]
UK banks such as Lloyds — The extra tax on bank profits doubles from 3% to 6% for 15 months, to pay for help with energy bills. [39]
Volkswagen's workers — The company is cutting up to 100,000 jobs as sales in China fall. [19]
Alphabet's shareholders — The shares were 10% lower before New York opened, after spending outran cash by $9.07bn. [28]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

Whether the US Fed raises its rate in December.

Warsh refused to give any guidance, and the 78% chance is a price traders pay, not a promise. [6][9]
02

Whether US prices start to slow before that meeting.

The PCE price figure due Thursday is the next reading, and the September figure of 3.7% was higher than August's. [13][3]
03

How large Alphabet's SpaceX loss was.

The Guardian puts its loss on its stakes at $8.7bn and ties it to SpaceX; Business Insider puts the SpaceX loss alone at $8.2bn. We used the Guardian's figure. [27][30]
04

Who will run the European Central Bank after 7 February.

EU leaders have only just started the search, and the two favourites are one economist's view, not a shortlist. [24][19]
05

What the European Central Bank decides on Thursday.

Its decision comes at 13:15 GMT, after this edition was written. [26]
06

Whether Britain's higher bank tax really ends after 15 months.

Britain's Treasury says it will write the limit into law, but Spain extended a bank tax meant to last two years by three more. [39]
07

Whether Thames Water's new loan ends up on household bills.

A campaign group says the interest could add £40 a home; the lenders say it will not be added. [41]
08

Whether Weil closes for good.

Its partners vote in the coming days, and the Wall Street Journal says it could shrink instead of closing. [42][43]
09

Whether BP is broken up.

Some directors want it, its chief executive appears opposed, and BP calls the report false. [61]

04 Hope carry this

Canada's central bank raised its growth forecast for this year to 1.0%, from 0.7% in July.

Also true today

Oil fell 0.7% to $114.50 a barrel on Thursday, after reports that the US vice president wrote to Iran's security chief to restart peace talks.
Whitbread, which runs Premier Inn hotels, now expects to pay £45m to £60m less property tax by 2029.
At Chipotle's restaurants, lower-income customers spent more than richer ones for the first time this year.