Nvidia's board opens an inquiry into boss Jensen Huang over reports he was a spying target, as a crypto stand-in for its shares falls 2%

The stories

22 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   Nvidia's board opens an inquiry into boss Jensen Huang over reports he was a spying target, as a crypto stand-in for its shares falls 2%

   $4.5 trillion

   what Nvidia is worth, making it the world's second most valuable company

   almost 12% of the Nasdaq 100, a big US share index [3]

   about 60

   people who report directly to Jensen Huang

   a flat structure that leaves no clear second in command [11]

   2%

   fall in a stand-in for Nvidia's shares on Hyperliquid, a crypto venue

   the main US share markets had not opened since the news [12]

   $4.8 billion

   of Nvidia chips bought by Megaspeed in two years

   the US has investigated Megaspeed over alleged smuggling, which it denies [5]

   What happened

   • Nvidia's board said on Sunday it has opened an independent inquiry into reports about its boss, Jensen Huang. [2]
   • Nvidia, whose chips power the AI boom, is worth about $4.5 trillion, Semafor says. [3]
   • The inquiry asks whether Huang was the target of a foreign spying effort, the board says. [2]
   • Huang told staff on Sunday he had been unfaithful to his wife. [8] Reports say the woman works for Megaspeed, an Nvidia customer. [5]
   • The New York Times reports that US officials believe she passed information to China, citing unnamed sources. [10]
   • No one has been charged, TechCrunch reports. [11] In October China's embassy called the claims "groundless smears and slanders". [11]
   • A committee of independent directors, helped by outside lawyers, will run the inquiry, the board says. [2]
   • The board says it has no reason to believe US security or Nvidia's secrets were compromised. [2]
   • The board also says it has confidence in Huang, and that he will cooperate. [2]
   • Nvidia told Semafor that Huang will go on leading the company "without interruption". [4]
   • Megaspeed, her employer, did not answer Fortune, and no report we read carries a reply from her. [5]
   • The main US share markets last traded on Friday, before Sunday's news. [12]
   • On Hyperliquid, a crypto trading venue, a stand-in for Nvidia's shares was down 2% over 24 hours, CNBC reported. [12]
   • That is a reading from one crypto venue, taken before New York opened on Monday. [12]
   • Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures, bets on where US shares will open, were up 0.42% on Monday. [12]
   • A senior South Korean official said trouble at Nvidia would not affect the country's contracted chip supplies. [14]
   • Huang has run Nvidia for more than 30 years, the BBC says. [9] He has more than once rescued it from going broke. [9]
   • Semafor says Huang has been inseparable from Nvidia's success, leading its launches and its deals with governments. [3]
   • Nvidia has no obvious successor waiting, Semafor says. [3] TechCrunch reports about 60 people answer directly to Huang. [11]
   • Huang owns nearly 4% of Nvidia and has no special extra-vote shares, Semafor says. [3] So that stake does not protect him from removal. [3]
   • Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of Yale's business school told TechCrunch that Huang's chance of surviving the crisis is "about a 50-50". [11]
   • Dan Ives, a managing director at Yorkville Ives, says it will "create an overhang", a worry weighing on a share. [6]
   • President Trump says Huang should stay as Nvidia's boss, Business Insider reports. [7]
   • Semafor reads it differently from Sonnenfeld, saying his removal looks unlikely for now. [3]

   Who is involved

   • Nvidia's board the directors who oversee the company; opened the inquiry and say they have confidence in Huang
   • Jensen Huang co-founder and boss of Nvidia; says he will cooperate with the inquiry
   • President Trump says Huang should stay
   • Megaspeed a Singapore data-centre firm and Nvidia customer; denies smuggling chips to China
   • The New York Times the US newspaper that first reported the officials' suspicions, citing unnamed sources

   How it unfolded

   The New York Times describes a memo written by Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state. [10]

   The Times says that memo warned top officials last spring about her suspected spying. [10] Huang still joined President Trump's China trip in May. [4]

   Megaspeed, a data-centre firm in Singapore, bought over $4.8 billion of Nvidia chips in two years, Fortune says. [5]

   The US investigated Megaspeed last year for allegedly helping to smuggle chips into China, which the firm denies, Fortune reports. [5]

   1. Friday US markets last close
   2. Sunday the inquiry is announced
   3. Monday New York opens later
   4. Last spring the memo circulates
   5. May Huang joins the trip to China
   6. 17 Nov Nvidia reports its results [1]
   7. 18 Nov The private briefing lawmakers have asked for [1]
   8. Late Oct The New York Times reports US officials' suspicions, citing unnamed sources [10]
   9. Last week Three US House chairs ask Huang to a private briefing [1]
   10. Sun 8 Nov Huang writes to staff and the board opens an inquiry [2]

   Why it matters

   Nvidia is almost 12% of the Nasdaq 100, a big US share index. [3] Millions of Americans hold it through retirement plans, TechCrunch says. [11]

   Nvidia has also invested in customers such as OpenAI, Anthropic and CoreWeave, TechCrunch reports. [11]

   TechCrunch warns that a leadership crisis at Nvidia could spread to those firms. [11]

   How it works

   Corporate governance, the study of how firms are checked, calls board members who do not work there independent directors.

   Huang is on Nvidia's board, so the inquiry falls to everyone else on it, TechCrunch explains. [11]

   Seen it before

   A referee stays out of checking a goal that involves his own team, so another official looks instead.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Nvidia's board has opened an inquiry into reports that its boss, Jensen Huang, was the target of a foreign spying effort, and it says it has confidence in him. [2]No one has been charged, and the suspicion rests on unnamed sources in The New York Times. [10] [11]
   • Why it works on people A suspected spy makes a story hard to look away from, so the plainer question gets less room: who would run Nvidia if Huang could not.
   • Semafor says directors will face questions about when they knew, and whether an earlier review was thorough. [3]
   • Nvidia earlier denied an affair to reporters, Semafor says. [3] It adds that withheld facts could bring shareholder lawsuits. [3]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether anyone will be charged over the suspected spying.

     No one has been charged, and the claims about the woman rest on unnamed officials quoted by The New York Times. [10] [11]

   • Nobody knows yet

     What the board's inquiry will find, and when.

     The board has set no end date and says only that it will give updates as appropriate. [2]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Huang keeps his job.

     Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of Yale puts his chances at about a 50-50, while Semafor says removal looks unlikely for now. [3] [11]

   • Nobody knows yet

     How Nvidia's own shares will react.

     The main US markets had not opened since the news, and the only reading is a stand-in on one crypto venue. [12]

   What comes next

   Nvidia reports its results on 17 November. [1] Three US House committee chairs want Huang at a private briefing on 18 November. [1]

1. 02

   Taiwan curbs bets against its shares

   What happened

   • Taiwan's main share index rose almost 6% on Monday, CNBC reported. [12]
   • It had fallen for 7 sessions in a row, its longest losing run since 2022. [13]
   • Taiwan's regulator limited short selling from Monday. [13] Short selling is betting a share will fall, using borrowed shares. [13]
   • The daily cap on short-sale orders fell to 3% of a stock's usual trading, from 30%. [13]
   • Taiwan's finance ministry also said it is ready to use its NT$500 billion stock stabilisation fund. [13]

   Why it matters

   Taiwan's market leans on chip makers like TSMC, so the AI sell-off hit it hard. [13]

   How it works

   Finance calls this a market stabilisation fund: money a state keeps to buy shares in a panic.

   Goldman Sachs counts 9 earlier uses of Taiwan's fund, spending NT$0.76 billion to NT$122.7 billion. [13] Just announcing it can lift prices. [13]

   Seen it before

   A shop that promises to match any price often never has to match one.

   The truth

   • After those 9 uses, shares rose 6% on average in the next week, Goldman says. [13]
   • But in 6 of the 9 cases, they fell a further 5% to 28% within six months. [13]
   • Who gains People holding Taiwanese shares — The cut in the cap on short-sale orders limits one kind of selling that pushes their shares down. [13]
2. 03

   Japan spent a record $50 billion in a day

   What happened

   • Japan spent a record $50 billion in one day, 30 July, to prop up its currency, the yen. [16]
   • Japan's finance ministry released the daily figures on Monday. [16] Japan bought yen on 3 days, not 2 as traders had thought. [17]
   • It bought 7.98 trillion yen on 30 July, then 5.55 trillion and 1.87 trillion on the following days. [17]
   • The total was 15.399 trillion yen, or $97.16 billion, across July and August. [16]
   • Japan and the US acted together in late July, their first joint move for the yen since 1998. [16]

   How it unfolded

   The yen had fallen to about 164 to the dollar earlier this year, a four-decade low. [16]

   1. 30 July the record day
   2. Monday the figures are published
   3. September rate raised to 1.25%
   4. By year's end another move expected

   Why it matters

   Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, has said the weak yen drives up prices in Japan. [16]

   How it works

   Economists call this currency intervention: a government buys its own money to push its price up.

   Japan's buying lifted the yen at first, but it is still near 158.20 to the dollar. [16]

   Seen it before

   Bailing water from a leaking boat helps for a while, but the water keeps coming in.

   The truth

   • Traders expect the wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates to last, keeping the yen weak. [16]

   What comes next

   The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25% in September, and is expected to act again by year's end. [16]

3. 04

   China's factory prices jump; shoppers' barely move

   What happened

   • Prices at China's factory gates rose 5.7% in October from a year earlier. [18]
   • That is the fastest in nearly 4 and a half years, and above the 5.3% economists forecast. [18]
   • Prices paid by shoppers rose just 0.7%, down from 0.9% in September. [18]
   • Factory prices have sped up for 3 months in a row, CNBC reports. [19]
   • Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, eased to 0.8% from 1%. [19]
   • Fuel prices held shop prices up, China's statistics office said. [19] A bigger fall in food prices than expected pulled them down. [19]
   • China's economy grew faster than forecast in the third quarter, helped by strong exports. [18]

   Why it matters

   Dear oil raised costs for coal, oil and chemical makers, Reuters reports. [18]

   Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, says the property slump is a key reason shop prices stay low. [19]

   How it works

   Economists call factory-gate prices the producer price index: what makers charge before goods reach the shops.

   China's makers pay more for materials, but weak household demand has so far kept those costs from fully reaching shoppers. [18]

   Seen it before

   A bakery pays more for flour but keeps its price, so its customers do not stop coming.

   The truth

   • Reuters says high oil prices drove the rise. [18] Zhang told CNBC it was very strong demand from abroad. [19]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What drove China's factory prices up.

     Reuters points to oil costs, and economist Zhang Zhiwei points to demand from abroad. [18] [19]

1. 05

   Oil slips, then steadies, on Trump's words

   What happened

   • Brent, the main world oil price, fell 0.85% to $97.48 a barrel at Monday's open. [20]
   • By mid-afternoon in Sydney it was flat at $98.33. [15]
   • President Trump told CNN that new attacks on Iran were "highly unlikely" if talks make progress. [20]
   • Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, says there has been no progress in the talks. [21]

   Who is involved

   • United States says talks can avert attacks
   • Iran says no progress

   How it unfolded

   Brent fell 17% last week, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the Covid pandemic. [20]

   JPMorgan, the US bank, estimates a surplus of 1.1 million barrels a day in September and 1.4 million in October. [20]

   Why it matters

   Cheaper oil eases inflation worries in buyers such as India, which depends heavily on imports. [27]

   How it works

   Why investors put a price on losing the boss

   In corporate finance this is key-person risk: when a company's future rests on one person, buyers pay less to allow for the chance that person goes.

   The twist

   Corporate finance calls it key-person risk: when much of a company's future depends on one person who cannot easily be replaced, buyers lower what they will pay.

   Step by step

   1. 1 A company's price is a guess at all its future profits
   2. 2 Part of those profits depends on one person's skill and contacts
   3. 3 That person could leave, fall ill or be removed
   4. 4 Buyers pay less to allow for that chance
   5. 5 A ready successor makes the discount smaller

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Crypto's political luck runs out in the US

     Crypto firms tied their plans to one US president, so when Democrats won the US Congress, investors had to allow for that backing weakening.

   • Oil slips, then steadies, on Trump's words

     Traders set the oil price partly on what one man decides, so one phone interview with CNN moved it and they cannot tell if he will change his mind.

   Where you've seen this

   A football club

   a team built around one striker is worth less the day he is injured

   A small restaurant

   if the chef is the reason people come, a buyer pays less for it

   A band

   ticket sales rest on the singer staying with the band

   The catch

   The discount is a guess. Investors cannot measure one person's value, and a company can thrive after a founder leaves.

   And the whole of it

   Millions of savers hold a small part of Nvidia through their retirement funds. They, its staff and its customers all rely on what a few directors decide. None of them can see what those directors have been told.

   The truth

   • Tim Waterer of KCM Trade says traders cannot yet tell if Trump's softer tone will last. [20]
   • Who gains Oil buyers such as India — A fall in oil eases the country's import bill and its inflation worries. [27]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US-Iran talks are making progress.

     President Trump says new attacks are unlikely if talks progress, and Iran's foreign minister says there has been no progress. [20] [21]

   What comes next

   Iraq says it reached an understanding with the US to ship oil through the Strait of Hormuz. [20]

1. 06

   Mitsui Chemicals agrees to buy JSR

   What happened

   • Mitsui Chemicals, a Japanese chemicals firm, said on Monday it will buy JSR for 1.8 trillion yen, about $11.6 billion. [22]
   • JSR makes materials used in making computer chips. [22] It is being sold by JIC Capital. [22]
   • The combined firm would be Japan's largest maker of chip materials by sales. [22]
   • Mitsui will borrow 1.64 trillion yen short-term, and the Development Bank of Japan adds 200 billion yen. [22]
   • Mitsui's shares fell nearly 14% on Monday, after nearly 12% on Friday. [22]

   Who is involved

   • Mitsui Chemicals buyer
   • JSR chip materials maker
   • JIC Capital seller

   Why it matters

   Mitsui warned its debt will briefly pass 4 times its core yearly earnings. [22]

   How it works

   Corporate finance calls a short-term loan for a purchase a bridge loan: it lasts until longer money is found.

   Mitsui plans to replace the 1.64 trillion yen of loans within a year of closing, to protect its credit rating. [22]

   Seen it before

   A family borrows for a few months to buy a new home before the old one sells.

   The truth

   • Mitsui targets about 40 billion yen of extra yearly profit by 2035, so its promise takes years to check. [22]
   • Who pays Mitsui Chemicals' shareholders — The purchase pushes debt past 4 times core earnings for a time, and the shares fell nearly 14%. [22]
2. 07

   ANZ's profit rises, and so do late home loans

   What happened

   • ANZ is one of Australia's 4 big banks. [15] It reported cash profit of A$7.6 billion for the year to September. [23]
   • Profit jumped 31% because last year's figure carried big charges from a cost-cutting drive. [23]
   • Without those charges, profit rose 10%. [23] Costs fell 14% and income rose 3%. [23]
   • ANZ's shares closed down 3.2% on Monday, the ABC reported. [15]
   • A UBS analyst called the result only in line with forecasts. [15]
   • ANZ will also stop funding new oil and gas projects, matching Australia's other 3 big banks. [15]

   Why it matters

   Late home-loan repayments rose in the second half, as living costs and rates bit, ANZ's finance chief said. [23]

   How it works

   Bankers call seriously overdue loans delinquencies: an early sign that borrowers are in trouble.

   ANZ's loans 90 days or more late rose by 0.12 of a point to 0.95% in six months. [23]

   Seen it before

   Missing one phone bill can be a slip, but missing three in a row usually means trouble.

   The truth

   • The ABC gives ANZ's profit as A$7.3 billion. [15] The Sydney Morning Herald gives its cash profit as A$7.6 billion. [23]
   • Who gains Australia's big banks' shareholders — ANZ's operating costs fell 14%, which lifted its profit for the year. [23]
   • Who pays Late-paying home borrowers in Australia — Higher rates and living costs raised the share of ANZ's loans at least 90 days behind. [23]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Why ANZ's profit is given as two different figures.

     The ABC says A$7.3 billion and the Sydney Morning Herald says a cash profit of A$7.6 billion, and neither explains the gap. [15] [23]

   Good news

   • ANZ says 87% of its retail customers are ahead on repayments. [23]
3. 08

   Australia's regulator stops two Angas funds

   What happened

   • Australia's market regulator, ASIC, stopped Angas Securities from selling 2 investment funds on Monday. [24]
   • Angas, based in Adelaide, held about A$114 million of investors' money at the end of June. [24]
   • ASIC is concerned investors may not have been told enough about Angas's finances and the risks. [24]
   • One fund's risks involve Bathla, a Sydney property developer that collapsed in August. [24]

   How it unfolded

   Bathla owed about A$3.4 billion, mostly to private credit funds, which lend money outside the banks. [24]

   1. 10 Nov ASIC's update on private credit
   2. Sept 2027 Bathla's administrators' deadline

   Why it matters

   About 200 former Bathla workers say they are chasing unpaid wages and answers. [25]

   Workers on temporary visas are not covered by Australia's government safety net for unpaid wages. [25]

   How it works

   Regulators call this a stop order: a firm may not sell a product until its risks are fairly explained.

   ASIC's interim orders bar Angas from offering or selling the 2 funds for now. [24]

   Seen it before

   A shop must take a jar off the shelf until its label tells the truth.

   The truth

   • Who pays Former Bathla staff on temporary visas — They are shut out of the safety net for unpaid wages, so getting paid depends on the insolvency. [25]
   • Who pays Investors in the Angas funds — The regulator is concerned they may not have been told the risks, and the funds cannot be sold for now. [24]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What Bathla's workers will recover.

     The administrators have until September 2027, and say the payroll records are taking longer than usual to sort out. [25]

   What comes next

   ASIC is due to publish an update on private credit on 10 November. [24] Bathla's administrators have until September 2027. [25]

4. 09

   Foreign money pours back into India

   What happened

   • Foreign investors have bought over $4.1 billion of Indian shares so far in November. [26]
   • That is already their biggest monthly buying since September 2024. [26]
   • India's main indexes rose about 10.5% in 7 sessions to Friday, their longest winning run this year. [26]
   • The rupee, India's currency, reached 93.91 to the dollar, its strongest since April. [27]
   • On Sunday a special Diwali session ended slightly lower, with the Sensex down 0.04%. [28]
   • The Sensex has ended that session lower just 8 times in 30 years. [28]

   How it unfolded

   Before this, foreign investors had been net sellers for 2 months running. [27]

   Why it matters

   Cheaper oil helps because India depends on imports. [27] India also has few AI shares to fall. [27]

   How it works

   Investment managers call this rotation: funds sell one group of shares and buy another.

   Funds selling AI shares across Asia have been moving money into India, where there are few of them. [27]

   Seen it before

   When the queue at one food stall grows too long, people drift to the next stall.

5. 10

   Tin slumps while the metal runs short

   What happened

   • London tin fell from over $50,000 a tonne to an eight-month low of $45,360 in a week. [29]
   • Tin solders electronics, so investors had bet on it during the AI boom, Reuters columnist Andy Home writes. [29]
   • Thursday's $3.2 trillion fall on Wall Street spilled over into metals. [29]
   • Yet stocks of tin held by exchanges, just under 9,000 tons, are at a four-year low. [29]

   How it unfolded

   Indonesia, the biggest exporter of refined tin, cut exports 14% as it cracked down on illegal mining. [29]

   Why it matters

   Electronics and solar panels both need tin, so a shortage would reach their makers. [29]

   How it works

   Traders call it backwardation when metal for now costs more than metal for later. [29]

   Tin for immediate delivery now costs $125 a ton more than tin in 3 months. [29] Buyers pay extra because little is on hand. [29]

   Seen it before

   Concert tickets for tonight can cost more than the same seats next month, when more are on sale.

   The truth

   • The AI effect on tin has been mostly about investors' mood, Tom Langston of the International Tin Association says. [29]
   • Who gains Whoever holds tin ready to deliver — Tin for immediate delivery costs $125 a ton more than tin in 3 months, because so little is on hand. [29]
6. 11

   Europe and Britain near a carbon-market link

   What happened

   • The EU and the UK are close to linking their carbon markets, people familiar with the deal told Bloomberg. [30]
   • Firms buy carbon permits to emit greenhouse gases. [30] The link would let permits be traded across both markets. [30]
   • The EU market covers around 10,000 factories, power plants and airlines. [30]
   • UK permits closed at 64.81 pounds a ton on Friday, with EU permits at 86.55 euros. [30]

   How it unfolded

   1. Now final details
   2. 20 Nov leaders' meeting

   Why it matters

   Firms working in both places would save on border carbon taxes over time. [30]

   How it works

   Economists call this emissions trading: a capped number of permits, priced by buyers and sellers.

   UK permits have already narrowed their discount to EU permits since the two sides committed to a link last year. [30]

   The truth

   • The treatment of financial bets on carbon prices is the one issue still open, people told Bloomberg. [30]

   What comes next

   The deal is expected at a meeting of UK and EU leaders on 20 November. [30]

7. 12

   Crypto's political luck runs out in the US

   What happened

   • Bitcoin fell below $74,000 over the weekend, its lowest since August. [12]
   • By Monday afternoon in Sydney it was about $74,522, the ABC reported. [15]
   • With Democrats taking the US Congress, crypto firms face tougher rules and closer checks, the Sydney Morning Herald reports. [31]

   How it unfolded

   In September the US Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, a bill to set crypto rules. [31]

   Trump launched his own digital assets and made crypto part of his agenda. [31]

   Why it matters

   Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic senator, is expected to lead the US Senate banking committee. [31]

   How it works

   Crypto firms tied their plans to one US president, so when Democrats won the US Congress, investors had to allow for that backing weakening.

   The idea, in story 05: Why investors put a price on losing the boss →

   The truth

   • Austin Campbell, an academic at New York University, says firms that sided with Trump now face consequences. [31]

   What comes next

   The federal stablecoin law, covering digital tokens tied to the dollar, would need a new law to repeal. [31]

8. 13

   Anthropic orders $3.4 billion of generators

   What happened

   • Anthropic, an AI company, bought commitments for $3.4 billion of gas generators, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. [32]
   • The deal covers 1.7 gigawatts of heavy machines from OnePWR Solutions, a Texas equipment firm. [32]
   • Anthropic bought the commitments in late September, the paper says. [32]
   • It did not buy OnePWR itself, and none of OnePWR's staff moved across, the paper says. [32]
   • The deal also includes the engineering and building skills needed to install the machines. [32]
   • Anthropic makes the Claude family of AI models. [32] Strong demand for them has pushed it to secure more computing and power. [32]

   How it unfolded

   1. Late September Anthropic commits
   2. Sunday the Financial Times reports it

   Why it matters

   Anthropic expects to spend over $500 billion on AI buildings and machines in 10 years, Reuters reported in September. [32]

   The truth

   • Reuters could not confirm the report, and Anthropic and OnePWR did not reply, CNBC says. [32]
9. 14

   Democrats aim at Trump's tariffs

   What happened

   • Democrats plan to challenge President Trump's import taxes, called tariffs, on taking over the US Congress, CNBC reports. [33]
   • Hakeem Jeffries, likely the next House speaker, would rush a bill to reassert the US Congress's power over trade. [33]
   • The US Supreme Court struck down Trump's near-global tariffs in February. [33] His government was ordered to refund $166 billion. [33]
   • Democrats still lack the 60 US Senate votes that stop a block on a bill. [33]
   • Trump could also veto a bill, and overriding him takes two-thirds of both chambers. [33]

   Who is involved

   • Hakeem Jeffries Democratic leader in the US House

   Why it matters

   Ron Wyden, a Democratic senator, says tariffs on Canada raise prices on both sides of the border. [33]

   How it works

   Lawyers call this the separation of powers: under the US constitution, Congress sets taxes.

   The US Congress handed some tariff power to presidents over decades, CNBC notes. [33] Democrats now want to take it back. [33]

   Seen it before

   Lending your brother your bike is easy, but getting it back once he relies on it is harder.

   The truth

   • Jamie Raskin, a Democrat, alleges Trump's tariff exemptions were "sweetheart deals" for favoured industries. [33]
10. 15

    A forecaster expects AI spending to fall in 2028

    What happened

    • Capital Economics, a research firm, expects AI spending to fall about 10% in 2028, Fortune reports. [34]
    • A handful of big technology firms are expected to spend $800 billion this year, double last year. [34]
    • Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics calculated that AI revenue from outside customers would have to grow 10-fold by 2030. [34]
    • She expects the S&P 500 share index to be 12% below today's level by the end of 2027. [34]

    Why it matters

    Taiwan's growth next year should be around 3 points lower, she says, and South Korea's 1 point lower. [34]

    How it works

    Economists call this the wealth effect: people spend more when their shares rise, and less when they fall.

    Capital Economics says last year's share rally lifted US output by around 0.4%, so a fall would take some back. [34]

    Seen it before

    A family that thinks its house has lost value often puts off buying a new car.

    The truth

    • This is one firm's forecast, and it says AI could still raise output per worker. [34]
11. 16

    David Jones shoppers flock to a collapsed store

    What happened

    • Shoppers rushed to David Jones, a big Australian department store, after its directors gave up the business on Thursday. [35]
    • Its receivers, the firm running it for creditors, say sales are at record levels. [35]
    • New orders are being placed to restock shelves ahead of Black Friday sales, they say. [35]
    • There are 38 David Jones stores, and some closures are expected this week, an unnamed source told the Herald. [35]

    How it unfolded

    1. Tuesday the sale is advertised
    2. This week store closures expected

    Why it matters

    Staff would be the first to hear of any closures, the receivers say. [35]

    What comes next

    Advertisements seeking a buyer will be published on Tuesday. [35]

12. 17

    BYD and Land Rover head to court

    What happened

    • A court in The Hague will decide this week whether BYD has a case to answer over its Ti7 car. [36]
    • Bailiffs acting for Jaguar Land Rover seized digital records at BYD's Dutch offices in August, the Sunday Times reported. [36]
    • Jaguar Land Rover and BYD both declined to comment. [36]

    Who is involved

    • Jaguar Land Rover claims a copy
    • BYD China's carmaker

    Why it matters

    BYD plans to sell the car in the UK from January at 47,995 pounds. [36] The Defender starts at 68,465 pounds. [36]

    How it works

    Lawyers call this intellectual property: the legal right to an original design.

    Jaguar Land Rover won a similar case against Jiangling, a Chinese carmaker, in 2019, after three years. [36]

    Seen it before

    If you sell a copy of someone's school book cover, they can ask a teacher to stop you.

13. 18

    Fitch raises Cyprus's credit rating

    What happened

    • Fitch, a firm that rates how safe borrowers are, raised Cyprus's rating to A from A-. [37]
    • Fitch expects Cyprus to run a budget surplus of 3.2% of its economy in 2026, the euro area's highest. [37]
    • Fitch forecasts growth of 3% a year from 2026 to 2028, above the euro area's average. [37]
    • Fitch says spending at home and services are driving that growth. [37] Tourism recovered quickly after a slowdown when the Middle East conflict began. [37]
    • Fitch expects Cyprus to spend more abroad than it earns, by 8.1% of its economy a year to 2028. [37]

    Why it matters

    Fitch cited Cyprus's fast-falling debt as a reason for the rise. [37]

    The truth

    • Fitch sees inflation challenges too, at 5.2% in September, up from 0.9% in February. [37]

    Good news

    • Cyprus's government debt is expected to fall to 46.3% of its economy in 2026, from 52.4% in 2025, Fitch says. [37]
14. 19

    Philippines' growth slows again

    What happened

    • The Philippine economy grew 2.1% in the three months to September from a year earlier. [38]
    • Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast 3.1%. [38] It was the fifth straight quarter of slower growth. [38]
    • That is down from 2.4% in the second quarter. [38]
    • Bloomberg describes the Philippines as one of Asia's worst performers on growth. [38]

    Why it matters

    Weak farm output pulled growth down, and high energy costs and El Nino cloud the outlook, Bloomberg reports. [38]

    The slowdown raises questions about the Philippine central bank's interest-rate rises, Bloomberg says. [38] It adds pressure on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. [38]

15. 20

    An economist blames US debt for high US rates

    What happened

    • Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution says last week's share fall tested why US borrowing costs rose. [39]
    • Some say AI firms' borrowing pushed up US rates. [39] Brooks says the US government's debt is to blame. [39]
    • The US budget gap widened to $1.99 trillion in the year to September, from $1.78 trillion. [39]
    • Net interest on US debt rose 8% to $1.05 trillion, or about $2.9 billion a day. [39]

    Who is involved

    • AI firms' borrowing one theory
    • US government debt Brooks's theory

    Why it matters

    Interest is now the third-biggest item in the US budget, above defence. [39]

    How it works

    Economists call this a risk premium: the extra return lenders demand for holding a riskier borrower's debt.

    Brooks says the long-term rate lenders demand did not fall when AI shares did, so AI cannot explain it. [39]

    The truth

    • Other analysts still blame AI firms' borrowing for crowding out US government bonds, Fortune reports. [39]
16. 21

    Australia's rate rises may bite less

    What happened

    • A Commonwealth Bank economist, Ashwin Clarke, says the five rate rises so far have hit households slightly less. [15]
    • The Reserve Bank of Australia, the country's central bank, has raised its rate 5 times in this run. [15]
    • Clarke compared this run of rises with earlier ones before the pandemic. [15]
    • Mortgage debt is lower against income, at 115%, about 9 points below 2022, the bank says. [15]
    • Three of Australia's 5 largest banks did not automatically cut mortgage payments after last year's 3 rate cuts. [15] Those banks hold over half of all mortgages. [15]
    • So the first 3 rate rises probably had little effect on what households had to pay, the bank says. [15]

    Why it matters

    About 85% of its customers did not ask to lower their payments after last year's rate cuts. [15]

    How it works

    Money saved as deposits has also grown, so higher rates pay more into some households. [15]

17. 22

    Indian banks face a dollar-interest bill

    What happened

    • Indian banks face $8.6 billion to $9.3 billion a year in interest on special foreign-currency deposits. [40]
    • The deposits raised $133 billion, and India's central bank's cover excludes the interest payments. [40]
    • The deposits come from non-residents and run for 3 to 5 years, the Economic Times says. [40]
    • Banks pay an average interest rate of 6.5% to 7% on them. [40]
    • On 10 October India's central bank also made banks hold cash equal to 20% of certain currency contracts. [40]
    • The extra cost of buying dollars a year ahead was 3.91% on 6 November, up from 2.78% in early August. [40]

    Why it matters

    Treasury chiefs at six banks told the Economic Times at least half the interest is not protected against currency moves. [40]

    How it works

    Traders call buying dollars in advance a forward contract: it fixes today what a later purchase will cost.

    Banks must buy those dollars forward themselves each year, Anindya Banerjee of Kotak Securities told the paper. [40]