Food & Farming · Monday, 19 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Food prices worldwide are set to rise faster into 2027, the UN food agency's chief economist says, as Indonesian rice and Indian sugar hit records and Egyptian bread costs a quarter more

War at sea, dearer fuel and an El Nino drought are pushing up the price of staple foods, and the poorest importing countries feel it first. Countries that grew a big crop at home, like Zambia, are paying less.

136

points on the FAO's index of world food prices in September

its highest reading since November 2022 [1]

30%+

rise in the price of wheat so far in 2026

attacks on Black Sea ports have disrupted wheat shipments [1]

22% of 150

countries where food got dearer faster than prices overall, July to September

up from 14% in the three months before, the World Bank found [1]

41%

less wheat reaching Indonesia in September than a year earlier

491,000 tonnes arrived, by the count of Kpler, a shipping data firm [1]

The lead story — what happened

Food prices around the world are set to rise faster in the coming months and stay high into 2027, Reuters reported on Monday. [1] Maximo Torero, chief economist at the FAO, the UN's food agency, expects the biggest effect at the end of this year and early next year. [1]
Rice in Indonesia has hit record prices, with the rains forecast to come late. [1] Sugar in India hit an all-time high after the weakest monsoon in more than a decade cut the crop. [1]
In Egypt a big loaf of bread that is not paid for by the state now costs about 5 Egyptian pounds, up from 4 in July. [1] Cooking oil in the United Arab Emirates costs about 40% more. [1]
Wheat prices are up more than 30% this year. [1] Attacks on ports and grain stores in the Black Sea have disrupted wheat shipments. [1] Ships also avoid the Red Sea by sailing the longer way around Africa. [1]
The war between Iran and the US and Israel has raised fuel prices and held up fertiliser leaving the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. [1] Shipping on some routes, such as the Black Sea to Southeast Asia, costs about 50% more. [1]
Indonesia received 41% less wheat in September than a year earlier, 491,000 tonnes. [1] Some of its flour mills are running below capacity, a milling company executive said. [1]
Food makers buy grain on contracts of three to six months, and they are now renewing them at higher prices. [1] Franciscus Welirang of Indofood, Indonesia's biggest food company, says a weaker rupiah makes the shipping bill bigger still. [1]
Importers in the Middle East and Africa that skipped buying after good harvests at home will soon need to buy again. [1] Alexander Karavaytsev of the International Grains Council, which tracks the world grain trade, expects a new wave of demand within a couple of months. [1]
Not everywhere is dearer. Zambia's record maize harvest left its maize 15% cheaper than a year ago. [2] Its food inflation fell to just under 6% in September, from about 15% a year earlier. [2] In Nigeria, food inflation fell to 19.6% in August, from 25.3% a year earlier. [2]
Malawi's maize, from a bigger home harvest, cost 29.3% less in September than a year earlier. [2] Wheat sold abroad by the US cost 49.9% more, after dry weather and the trouble in the Black Sea. [2] Argentina's cost 15.5% more, as buyers looked for wheat from elsewhere. [2]
Joseph Glauber, a former chief economist at the US farm department, names El Nino and dearer fertiliser as the two biggest threats to food output in 2027. [3] He expects farmers to spread less fertiliser, and possibly to harvest less as a result. [3]
In the US, wholesale food prices rose 1.2% from August to September, the biggest monthly rise since February. [4] In the EU, food and drink prices rose 34% between August 2021 and August 2026, Euronews found in official figures. [5]

Big loaf, July4 Egyptian pounds

Big loaf, now5 Egyptian pounds

The price of a big loaf of bread in Egypt that the state does not pay towards, in Egyptian pounds.

Who is involved

Maximo Torero

chief economist of the FAO, the UN's food agency; he expects the biggest rise at the end of 2026 and into 2027
Alexander Karavaytsev

senior economist at the International Grains Council in London, which tracks the grain trade; he expects importers to return together
Franciscus Welirang

a director of Indofood, Indonesia's largest food company; he says shipping and a weak rupiah raise its costs
Joseph Glauber

a former chief economist of the US farm department; he names El Nino and fertiliser costs as 2027's biggest threats

How it unfolded

Late 2025 Food prices start rising around the world [1]
Sep 2026 The FAO's food price index averages 136, its highest since November 2022 [1]
Sep 2026 Indonesia's wheat arrivals fall 41% from a year earlier [1]
13 Oct The FAO's bulletin finds world wheat and maize prices rose in September [2]
19 Oct The FAO's chief economist says the biggest effect comes at the end of the year and into 2027 [1]

Where this points

Watch whether wheat buyers in the Middle East and Africa return to the market in the next couple of months, as the International Grains Council expects, and whether Australia's and Argentina's wheat harvests come in as forecast. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Fuel costing more High↑

Kenya raised diesel by 4.5% and petrol by 6% on 15 October, blaming import costs from the war in the Middle East. [6] In Juba, South Sudan's capital, diesel more than doubled between February and September, the FAO says. [2] Agrifac, a Dutch sprayer maker, is building electric drives it says will use 35% to 50% less fuel. [20]

Aid money running out High↑

The World Food Programme will cut about 500,000 people in Gaza off its food aid in the coming weeks because its funding has fallen short. [7] A Sudanese aid expert told Sky News Arabia that money for Sudan's refugees is more than 47% short this year. [23] A food bank in Crewe, in England, is spending about 1,000 pounds a week on food as donations fall. [22]

Mills and abattoirs shutting Building↑

The UK has about 200 abattoirs left, against about 2,500 in the 1970s, a group of more than 150 food and farming bodies says. [13] In Pakistan around 500 cotton gins, which separate cotton fibre from its seed, and more than 150 textile mills have closed. [12]

Food tests with gaps Building→

US rules make baby formula makers test for two germs, and botulism is not one of them, though 52 babies were taken to hospital in two outbreaks. [15] Canada's food inspectors do not check whether ethoxyquin, a preservative in fish feed, ends up in the fish people eat. [14]

Old apples and trees brought back Building↑

Spar, one of Austria's biggest grocers, is testing two apple varieties first grown in the 1840s and 1870s. [17] Farmers in central Tanzania are letting trees grow back on their fields, and say their maize harvests have risen. [16]

The rest of the day

14 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Gaza food aid to be cut for 500,000

The World Food Programme, the UN agency that hands out food in emergencies, will cut about 500,000 people in Gaza off its aid in the next few weeks. [7] Its acting head, Carl Skau, told NPR on Sunday that the reason is money, not need or access. [7] Nearly 1.4 million people, more than two-thirds of Gaza, face crisis levels of hunger. [7] Last week COGAT, the Israeli body that runs Gaza's crossings, said goods for sale would stop going in, amid a dispute over taxes on the trucks. [9][7]

2 of 3
people in Gaza facing crisis hunger
More than two in every three people in Gaza, nearly 1.4 million, face crisis levels of hunger, the World Food Programme says.

Why it matters — Families Skau met near the front line eat once a day and have no gas to cook, and winter is coming. [7] He saw some trucks of goods for sale moving again. [7] United Arab Emirates convoys took in 789 tonnes of food and shelter supplies this week, but Skau says shops must work again for fresh food to come in. [8][7]
03
USDA trims US pork and milk forecasts

The Economic Research Service, the US farm department's forecasting arm, cut its forecast for US pork by 150 million pounds this year and 245 million pounds in 2027. [10] The September count of US pigs pointed to fewer sows giving birth in the months ahead. [10] It also cut this year's US milk output to 236.9 billion pounds, because there are fewer dairy cows and each gives less milk. [10] It lowered its forecast for egg prices, as laying flocks grow. [10]

Why it matters — Fewer piglets born now means less pork for sale through next year. [10] The forecast price farmers get for milk in 2027 rose 65 cents, to 20.45 dollars for every 100 pounds of milk. [10]
04
Two rice crops a year spread pests

Rice farmers in Pakpattan, Okara and Sahiwal, in Pakistan's Punjab province, report harvests of only 20 to 35 maunds an acre, a maund being about 40 kilograms. [11] Stem borers, caterpillars that eat into the stalk, are in almost every field, two farm experts wrote in Dawn, a Pakistani newspaper. [11] Many farmers now grow an early rice crop from March, and it lets the pests breed before the main crop. [11] Punjab lifted its ban on early rice in April 2025 and took no clear position in 2026. [11]

Why it matters — Rice is Pakistan's biggest farm export. [11] Farmers who never grew the early crop still pay for extra sprays, while pesticide sellers report higher sales. [11]
05
Pakistan's cotton crop up, its gins idle

Cotton reaching Pakistan's ginning factories, which separate the fibre from the seed, rose 7.53% from a year earlier to 4.08 million bales by 15 October, the ginners' association says. [12] Yet around 500 gins and more than 150 textile mills have closed, the textile mills' association says. [12] Industry groups blame high costs and cheap yarn and fabric brought in under an export scheme, which they say is sold inside Pakistan instead. [12]

Why it matters — A cotton research official warned that farmers may plant less next season if cotton keeps paying less than other crops. [12] Punjab's crop office puts the province's crop at 2.98 million bales, while the ginners count 1.64 million arriving there so far, a gap the ginners' forum chairman pointed out. [12]
06
UK groups ask for help to keep abattoirs

The Abattoir Sector Group, a coalition of more than 150 food and farming bodies, has written to Prime Minister Andy Burnham asking for lighter rules and targeted money for small abattoirs. [13] The UK had about 2,500 abattoirs in the 1970s and has about 200 now. [13] In a 2025 survey of 850 farmers, two-thirds had struggled to find an abattoir, and 43% said they could not sell meat locally if theirs shut. [13]

1970s2,500 abattoirs
Today200 abattoirs
Abattoirs in the UK, by the coalition's count.

Why it matters — Small abattoirs let farmers sell meat straight to butchers, farm shops and shoppers, which keeps more of the money near the farm. [13] For one East Sussex sheep farmer, taking five sheep to the next nearest abattoir and collecting the meat means about six hours on the road. [13]
07
A fire retardant still goes into fish feed

Ethoxyquin is a chemical used since the 1960s to stop fishmeal catching fire on ships. [14] It is still allowed in animal feed in the US, Australia, Japan and South Korea, an investigation by The Outlaw Ocean Project found. [14] Fishmeal is ground, dried fish that is fed to farmed fish. [14] The EU suspended its use in animal feed in 2017, and studies have linked it to harm in laboratory animals. [14] Canada's food agency does not check whether it ends up in seafood, its 2022 report shows. [14]

Why it matters — More than half of the seafood eaten in the world now comes from fish farms, and most farmed species are fed fishmeal. [14] Its most popular replacement, BHA, is listed by the US National Toxicology Program, a government research body, as reasonably expected to cause cancer in people. [14]
08
Baby formula botulism petition posted

The publisher of Food Safety News, a US food-safety lawyer, has posted a draft petition asking the FDA, the US food regulator, to make baby formula makers test for the germ behind infant botulism. [15] He will file it with 23 parents whose babies were taken to hospital, and wants comments by 30 October. [15] Two outbreaks, from ByHeart and Nara Organics formula, put 52 babies in hospital, and the FDA linked both to one milk supplier. [15] The 22 dairies the milk was traced to have never been named, a US TV station, WJLA, reported. [15]

Why it matters — ByHeart tested 472 samples from its own factories and all were clean, because the germ came in with the milk powder. [15] In February the FDA found a botulism-type germ in 2 of 48 samples of milk powder sold to formula makers. [15]
09
Regrown trees lift maize in Tanzania

Farmers in Bahi District, near Dodoma in central Tanzania, say regrowing trees on their land has raised their maize harvests. [16] Godfrey Wilson, 24, said two acres once gave him six sacks, and one acre now gives him up to 15. [16] The Kisiki Hai programme, run by the LEAD Foundation with a partner group, Justdiggit, aims to regrow more than 32 million trees on 500,000 hectares of farmland. [16] It has launched a phone app, Kijani, to reach more farmers. [16]

Before3 sacks an acre
Now15 sacks an acre
Maize on Godfrey Wilson's farm in Bahi District, as he described it: six sacks from two acres before, up to 15 from one acre now.

Why it matters — The farmers say the trees keep water in the soil through short rainy seasons, and fallen leaves feed it. [16] Women in the villages also walk less far to collect firewood. [16]
10
Austria's forgotten apples return to shops

Spar, one of Austria's biggest grocery chains, is testing two old apple varieties with Frutura, a fruit and vegetable firm: the Ilzer Rosenapfel, from about 1840, and the Falchs Gulderling, from the 1870s. [17] Only about 10 of Austria's 2,000 apple types reach supermarkets. [17] A test orchard in Styria has 2,150 trees, and the first fruit was picked this week. [17] It goes to a shop in Vienna and to schools next month. [17]

1 of 200
apple types sold in Austria's supermarkets
About 10 of Austria's 2,000 apple types reach supermarkets: one in every 200.

Why it matters — The trial will test whether old varieties resist disease, keep on the shelf and grow in modern orchards. [17] Arche Noah, an Austrian group that saves old seeds and plants, helped choose them. [17]
11
Drought leaves livestock farms short of grass

Grass yields were 16% lower by mid-August than in 2025, James Daniel, a consultant at Precision Grazing, told Farmers Weekly, a British farm paper. [18] He expects a shortfall of at least 10% to 15% by the end of the year, and 25% to 33% on some dry farms. [18] Rain in August and September brought grass back on some farms in north-west England. [18] Others in north-east England were growing just 4 kilograms of dry grass a hectare in October. [18]

Why it matters — Some farms fed their winter silage during the summer drought, and some winter crops for animals failed. [18] Those farms start the winter with less feed and may need to buy hay or straw. [18]
12
Lidl US recalls gelato over Listeria

Lidl US is recalling one batch of its Gelatelli coffee and vanilla gelato after routine testing found Listeria, a germ that can cause serious illness. [19] The gelato was sold in Lidl stores in nine US states and Washington DC between 19 July and 15 October. [19] Its best-by date is March 2028, so tubs may still be in freezers. [19] No illnesses have been reported. [19]

Why it matters — Listeria can take up to 70 days to cause symptoms. [19] Pregnant women, old people, young children and people with weak immune systems face the most danger. [19]
13
Dutch maker builds electric crop sprayers

Agrifac, a Dutch maker of crop sprayers, is building three electric drives for sprayers that carry their own engine instead of being pulled by a tractor. [20] They are diesel-electric, a diesel and battery hybrid, and fully battery-powered. [20] It says the diesel-electric version should use about 35% less fuel than today's diesel models, and the hybrid up to 50% less. [20] The hybrid can deliver 301 horsepower continuously. [20] The first machine for sale is due in 2027. [20]

Why it matters — The fuel savings are the company's own figures, and the machines are still being tested. [20] Agrifac says the change will reach different countries at different times. [20]
14
German start-up pushes gene-silencing sprays

SenseUP, a German start-up, says it can make RNAi pesticides cheap and stable enough for ordinary farms. [21] RNAi, or RNA interference, switches off one gene in a pest, so it can kill an insect or fungus without harming soil or wildlife. [21] SenseUP grows the active material inside bacteria and says it keeps for 18 months or more at room temperature. [21] Its co-chief executive, Juan Martinez, spoke at a farm technology summit in London. [21]

Why it matters — Older chemical sprays are becoming less effective and carry costs for the environment. [21] The cost and shelf-life claims are the company's own. [21]
15
Crewe food bank appeals as gifts fall

St Paul's Charity in Crewe, a town in north-west England, has launched an appeal because its food bank spends about 1,000 pounds a week on food while donations get harder to find. [22] It gives out about 10 food parcels a day. [22] It is asking people to give 2 pounds a month. [22] Peter Dean, who runs the food bank, said many of the people who come are in work and still poor. [22]

Why it matters — Chief executive Jez Chalmers said the rising cost of living raises the number of people who need help and cuts what others can give. [22]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why Zambia's maize got cheaper while Egypt's bread got dearer

Zambia eats maize from its own record harvest, while Egypt bakes bread from wheat bought abroad, so the world's price rise hit one far harder than the other.

The twist

Two countries can face the same world prices and pay very different amounts for food, because what matters is which harvest feeds them.

The picture

1Malawi maize−29.3%
2Zambia maize−15%
3Argentina wheat for export15.5%
4US wheat for export49.9%

Price change in the year to September 2026, from the FAO's bulletin. The maize was grown and sold at home. The wheat was sold on the world market.

How it works

Every staple food comes from one harvest: the home one or the world's
Food grown and eaten at home is priced by the home crop
Food bought abroad is priced by the world crop, plus the ship and the fuel
A weaker home currency makes bought-in food dearer again
So one world price rise lands hard on importers and lightly on others

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

Food aid cut in Gaza

Gaza depends completely on goods let in through its crossings, so when aid money runs short or trucks of goods for sale stop, there is no home harvest to fall back on.
Pakistan's idle cotton gins

Pakistan's cotton reaching the gins grew 7.5%, but industry groups say cheap imported yarn is being sold at home, so the bigger home harvest did not keep the gins and mills open.

Where you've seen this

Electricity

a country that makes most of its power from its own rivers or wind feels a jump in the world gas price less than one that buys its gas abroad

Housing

a family that owns its home outright feels a jump in rents far less than one that pays rent every month

The catch

The protection lasts only as long as the home harvest does. India grows its own sugar, and its sugar still hit a record price when the monsoon was the weakest in more than a decade.

And the whole of it

A shopper in Lusaka pays less for maize because Zambia's own fields had a record year. A baker in Cairo pays more for flour because of attacks on Black Sea ports and a war in the Gulf, and neither of them chose any of it. Most of us eat from both kinds of harvest every day without knowing which is which.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Food is getting dearer in many poorer countries, and staples bought abroad, like the wheat in Egypt's bread, carry the costs of war: disrupted Black Sea shipments and dearer fuel and freight. [1] Home harvests decide the rest. India's weak monsoon sent its sugar to a record, while Zambia's record maize crop left its maize cheaper than a year ago. [1][2]

Who gains

Wheat exporters outside the Black Sea, such as Argentina and Australia — Buyers turned to them as Black Sea shipments were disrupted, and their wheat export prices rose 7.2% and 6.5% in September alone. [2]
Shoppers in Zambia — The country's record maize harvest left maize 15% cheaper than a year ago while world grain prices rose. [2]
Pesticide sellers in Punjab's rice districts — Two rice crops a year let stem borers breed, farmers spray again and again, and dealers report much higher sales this year. [11]
Firms selling imported yarn and fabric inside Pakistan — Industry groups say yarn and fabric brought in under an export scheme, meant to be sent abroad again, are sold at home instead, where an 18% sales tax leaves local makers at a disadvantage. [12]
Peru's fishmeal exporters that dropped ethoxyquin — The head of a Peruvian fishmeal firm said in 2022 that all of Peru's fishmeal sent to Europe, Canada, the US and Australia was free of it, which keeps buyers who refuse the chemical. [14]

Who pays

Poor families in importing countries such as Indonesia and Egypt — A Jakarta parking attendant says a meal that cost 7,000 to 8,000 rupiah now costs 15,000, and he has cut back on meals. [1]
About half a million people in Gaza — The World Food Programme will stop feeding them in the coming weeks because its funding fell short, as winter starts. [7]
Rice farmers in Pakpattan, Okara and Sahiwal — The writers in Dawn say the early crop lets stem borers breed, and main-crop yields are down to 20 to 35 maunds an acre even after repeated spraying. [11]
Workers at Pakistan's closed gins and textile mills — Around 500 gins and more than 150 mills have shut even as more cotton arrived than last year. [12]
Small livestock farmers in the UK — In a 2025 survey, 43% said they could no longer sell meat locally if their abattoir shut, and 29% said their meat business might have to close. [13]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

How far food prices will climb in 2027.

The FAO says the rise could last potentially through next year, and the International Grains Council sees significant upside risk, but both depend on harvests in Australia and Argentina that are not in yet. [1]
02

When the wheat importers of the Middle East and Africa return, and how many at once.

The International Grains Council expects a new wave of demand in a couple of months, but no buying has been reported yet. [1]
03

When Black Sea grain trade gets back to normal.

Ukraine's maize export prices stopped being quoted after its Black Sea ports suspended activity, and Russia's large harvest has few ways out, the FAO says. [2]
04

Whether the World Food Programme finds the money to keep feeding half a million people in Gaza this winter.

Its acting head named no donor and gave no figure for the gap. [7]
05

Whether goods for sale keep flowing into Gaza.

COGAT says Gaza's traders stopped because of Hamas fees, while the head of Gaza's truckers' union says Israel made the decision. [9] Carl Skau saw some trucks moving, but nobody has said the dispute is settled. [7]
06

How much ethoxyquin is in farmed fish sold in the US and Canada.

Canada's food agency does not test the seafood itself, its 2022 report shows, and the US still allows the chemical in feed within limits. [14]
07

Which 22 dairies supplied the milk linked to the baby formula botulism outbreaks.

The FDA traced the milk to them but has never named them, a US TV station reported. [15]
08

How big Pakistan's cotton crop really is.

The ginners' association counts 1.64 million bales arriving in Punjab, while Punjab's own crop office puts the crop at 2.98 million, and the ginners' forum chairman says bad weather may leave it below the first estimates. [12]
09

Whether Punjab will enforce its old ban on early rice next year.

It took no clear position in 2026, and the writers say some farmers who planted early this year got good yields and prices, which may tempt more to try. [11]
10

Whether the UK government will answer the abattoir coalition.

Defra, the UK farm ministry, was invited to comment and had not replied when Farmers Weekly reported the letter. [13]

04 Hope carry this

In Bahi District in central Tanzania, Godfrey Wilson, 24, now harvests up to 15 sacks of maize from an acre since trees grew back on his land. Two acres used to give him six.

Also true today

Zambia's record maize harvest helped bring its food inflation down to just under 6% in September, from about 15% a year earlier.
The first apples were picked this week from 2,150 trees of two Austrian varieties first known in the 1840s and 1870s. They go to a shop in Vienna and to schools next month.
Nigeria's yearly food inflation fell to 19.6% in August, from 25.3% a year earlier.