A former chief scientist tells Western Australia's parliament the fish model behind its demersal ban is wrong, and the department stands by it

The stories

14 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   A former chief scientist tells Western Australia's parliament the fish model behind its demersal ban is wrong, and the department stands by it

   130,000

   people licensed to fish from a boat in Western Australia

   about 70% of them fish in the West Coast zone [1]

   96%

   of shark fisher Nick Soulos's catch was shark, not the protected fish

   his whole licence was cancelled in December [1]

   480+

   public submissions sent to the inquiry before its hearings

   the hearings opened on 3 November [3]

   What happened

   • Western Australia's parliament held 3 days of hearings from 3 November into its ban on catching demersal fish. [3]
   • The ban covers popular catches such as pink snapper, red emperor and dhufish along much of the coast. [1]
   • Jim Penn, once WA's chief fisheries scientist, told the hearings the state fisheries department's model is radically wrong. [2]
   • The department stands by its work and says these fish have not recovered to healthy levels for 2 decades. [1]
   • About 130,000 people hold a licence to fish from a boat in WA. [1]
   • About 70% of them fish in the West Coast demersal zone, from Kalbarri to Augusta. [1]
   • That zone has reopened to recreational fishers only, not to commercial boats. [1]
   • More than 480 public submissions reached the inquiry before its hearings began. [3]
   • Nick Soulos fished for shark off Bunbury for 58 years, until his licence was cancelled in December. [1]
   • Shark made up 96% of his catch. [1]
   • His fishery sent 200 tonnes of shark to local restaurants and fish and chip shops, he said. [1]
   • He told the committee: 'For the sake of 3 tonne of dhufish they have denied the consumer.' [1]
   • Fish shops told the ABC their sales have plummeted as fish prices rise. [1]
   • Manue Daniels, head of the WA Fishing Industry Council, said 'Trust in fisheries management has been deeply shaken.' [1]
   • She said her council has never argued against sustainable fishing, but expects decisions based on 'sound science'. [1]
   • Heather Brayford, head of the department, said dhufish are in a worse state now than in 2006. [1]
   • WA's Conservation Council backed the department's research against attempts to undermine it. [1]
   • The council also said fishers face far stricter sea-protection rules than offshore oil and gas firms. [1]
   • Pilbara trawl licence holders, including Westmore and Sea Harvest, are in a legal fight with the state government. [2]

   70 of 100

   of WA's boat fishers fish the West Coast zone

   Who is involved

   • Jim Penn a former chief scientist of WA's fisheries agency; he told the inquiry its fish model is wrong
   • Nick Soulos shark fisher for 58 years
   • Heather Brayford head of DPIRD, WA's department for farming, fishing and the regions; she stood by its research
   • Conservation Council of WA backs the department's science
   • Manue Daniels head of the WA Fishing Industry Council; she said trust in fish management is shaken
   • Jackie Jarvis WA's fisheries minister; she closed the West Coast demersal fishery
   • Sandra Carr a Labor member of WA's Legislative Council; she chairs the inquiry

   How it unfolded

   Commercial fishing for these fish has been banned from Kalbarri to Augusta since January. [3]

   Jackie Jarvis, WA's fisheries minister, also banned trawl fishing boats in the Pilbara. [1]

   She halved the catch in the other demersal fisheries, except the Gascoyne. [1]

   The minister said the strict rules were needed to save the fish from extinction. [1]

   1. January commercial ban starts
   2. 3 November inquiry hearings open, with more than 480 submissions in [3]
   3. June 2027 the committee's final report is due [1]
   4. January commercial demersal fishing banned from Kalbarri to Augusta [3]
   5. That week Jim Penn says the department's assessment has errors [1]

   Why it matters

   Daniels said cutting commercial fishing makes local fish harder for ordinary WA families to afford. [1]

   She said the inquiry can show whether the decisions were justified. [1]

   How it works

   Fisheries scientists call it a stock assessment: a model's estimate of how many fish are left. [1][2]

   The department's assessment found these fish under severe threat, and the minister closed the fishery on it. [1]

   Penn told the committee his own review of that assessment found multiple errors. [1]

   Seen it before

   A teacher who marks a few tests to judge a whole class can get the whole class wrong.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Western Australia shut commercial fishing for pink snapper, red emperor and dhufish on its west coast because its fisheries department says the fish have not recovered to healthy levels in 20 years. [1][3]At the hearings, Jim Penn, once the state's chief fisheries scientist, said the department's estimate has errors, and the department stood by it. [1][2]
   • Why it works on people One named fisher who lost his licence after 58 years is easy to picture. A model's estimate of fish under the sea is not, though the ban rests on it. [1]
   • The department's head said governments accepted its science for 2 decades, but getting decisions to cut catches was difficult. [1]
   • The fishing council says it warned ministers for at least 20 years about overfishing by recreational fishers. [1]
   • Who gains WA's charter fishing boats — They may still take 25 tonnes of demersal fish a year while commercial boats in the zone take none. [1][3]
   • Who pays WA's commercial demersal fishers — Nick Soulos lost his whole shark licence, though only half his fishery lay in the closed zone. [1]
   • Who pays WA fish shops and their customers — Shops say their sales have plummeted as locally caught fish gets dearer. [1]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the department's stock assessment has the errors Penn says it does.

     Penn's review found multiple errors, the department stands by its modelling, and the committee does not report until June 2027. [1]

   • Nobody knows yet

     How much of the fall in these fish came from recreational fishing rather than commercial boats.

     The fishing council blames recreational overfishing, and none of our sources gives a split of the catch. [1]

   What comes next

   The committee aims to deliver its final report by June 2027. [1]

1. 02

   Denmark moves to ban fast-growing chickens

   What happened

   • Denmark's government says it will seek a national ban on fast-growing 'turbo chickens', and an EU one. [5]
   • The breed, Ross 308, grows from about 50 grams to 2 kilograms in just 33 days. [5]
   • Other breeds take 46 to 63 days to reach the same weight. [5]
   • Growing that fast can cause problems with the birds' bones and organs. [5]

   Days to 2 kilograms

   Ross 30833

   Other breeds, fastest46

   Other breeds, slowest63

   Who is involved

   • Denmark's government seeks a ban at home and in the EU

   How it unfolded

   A film by TV2, a Danish broadcaster, says producer Christian Tvergaard broke Danish law on lighting. [5]

   The film says his birds got half the darkness the law requires, to make them eat more. [5]

   Tvergaard told TV2: 'I have made some wrong decisions.' [5]

   Why it matters

   About 95% of chickens in the EU are raised in intensive systems, Eurogroup for Animals says. [5]

   How it works

   Economists call it leakage: a rule at home can push production abroad if imports still come in.

   Danpo's boss says shops and restaurants could keep buying imported fast-growing chicken, so welfare would not gain. [5]

   Seen it before

   If one school bans fizzy drinks but the shop outside sells them, pupils still drink them.

   The truth

   • The minister, Christian Rabjerg Madsen, said a ban still needs legal and economic study. [5]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether a Danish ban would keep fast-growing chicken off Danish plates.

     Danpo warns imports would stay on sale, and the minister says the legal and economic study has not been done. [5]

2. 03

   US corn harvest runs a little behind

   What happened

   • US farmers had harvested 74% of their corn by 1 November, 3 points behind the 5-year average. [14]
   • Corn was behind the usual pace in 7 of the 18 states the US farm department tracks. [14]
   • Soybeans were 88% harvested, 4 points ahead of the average. [14]
   • Parts of the Corn Belt, the main US corn region, ran 6 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. [14]
   • Brownfield, a US farm news service, says the weather looks clear, so some farmers may finish by mid-month. [12]
   • Only 44% of the young winter wheat was rated good or excellent on 1 November. [14]

   How it unfolded

   1. 1 November 74% of corn in
   2. 10 November new US crop estimates

   Why it matters

   Winter wheat for 2027 is 83% planted. [14] The Plains need more rain before it rests for winter, Brownfield says. [12]

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     How large this year's US crops will turn out to be.

     The US farm department's next supply estimates are due on 10 November. [12]

   What comes next

   The US farm department publishes its next crop supply estimates on 10 November. [12]

3. 04

   US wheat sales abroad drop 37% in a week

   What happened

   • US wheat export sales fell 37% in a week, to 19.8 million bushels, Brownfield reports. [12]
   • The week before had been this season's highest. [12]
   • The Philippines and South Korea were the biggest buyers. [12]
   • Peru and Mexico bought 700,000 bushels between them for delivery in 2027-28. [12]
   • In Canada, a US official puts this year's wheat crop at 36.122 million tonnes, the second biggest ever. [12]
   • The record, 40.562 million tonnes, came the year before. [12]
   • Canada is set to export 28.95 million tonnes, a little below last year's 29.77 million. [12]

   Why it matters

   Weak demand from abroad is holding back any rise in US wheat prices, Brownfield says. [12]

4. 05

   Sysco courts small restaurants as critics say menus look alike

   What happened

   • Sysco, which supplies restaurants with food and other goods, runs 340 warehouses in 10 countries. [13]
   • It made $81 billion in sales in 2025, about twice the size of its nearest rival. [13]
   • It is now chasing independent restaurants, which it calls mom-and-pops. [13]
   • Critics in viral videos say it makes many restaurants serve the same dishes. [13]
   • Its catalogue holds more than 150 kinds of restaurant fries. [13]

   How it unfolded

   In March it bid $29.1 billion for Restaurant Depot, a cash-and-carry store for small restaurants. [13]

   1. March $29.1 billion bid for Restaurant Depot
   2. Now the deal is under review

   Why it matters

   Many small restaurants switch between Sysco and Restaurant Depot for the cheaper price, a restaurant group says. [13]

   Erika Polmar of that group says the deal would turn 2 competing channels into one. [13]

   How it works

   Economists call Sysco's edge economies of scale: costs per item fall as its volume grows. [13]

   When Amy Russo's diner chain grew to 5 sites, only Sysco could deliver to all of them. [13]

   Seen it before

   A big supermarket can price below the corner shop because it buys by the lorry load.

   The truth

   • Greg Keller, a Sysco executive, says the company is a partner to small restaurants. [13] He says its huge range lets them choose their own menus. [13]
   • Who gains Sysco — It sees its growth in small restaurants, as the national chains it supplies stall. [13]
   • Who pays Small US restaurants — A consultant says he caught soap and sanitiser prices spiking in clients' Sysco orders. [13]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US competition watchdog lets Sysco buy Restaurant Depot.

     The Federal Trade Commission is still reviewing the $29.1 billion deal. [13]

   What comes next

   The US Federal Trade Commission, which polices competition, is reviewing the deal. [13]

1. 06

   Antibiotic left in most beef tested in a Ugandan district

   What happened

   • Researchers tested 419 beef samples from Gomba district, Uganda, for oxytetracycline, a common cattle antibiotic. [8]
   • They found the drug in 321 of them, or 76.6%. [8]
   • Of those, 76% held more than the limits set by the FAO and WHO, the UN's food and health agencies. [8]
   • Kidney held the most, about 3,470 micrograms a kilo on average, against a limit of 1,200. [8]
   • The team also interviewed 378 cattle farmers about the drug's effects on people. [8]

   Micrograms a kilo

   Average in kidney3,470

   Safe limit for kidney1,200

   Who is involved

   • 378 cattle farmers asked what they knew

   Why it matters

   The authors blame the residues on farmers' misuse of the drug. [8]

   How it works

   Vets set a withdrawal period: the days a farmer must wait after a dose before slaughter. [8]

   The paper says these waits are rarely kept, as drug labels are in English and many farmers cannot read them. [8]

   Seen it before

   A freshly painted bench needs time to dry before anyone sits on it.

   Why a fishing ban rests on an estimate of fish nobody has seen

   Fisheries scientists call it a stock assessment: nobody can count fish at sea, so a model estimates them, and the rules follow the estimate.

   The twist

   Nobody can see the fish, so the case for the ban is only as strong as the model that estimated them.

   The picture

   70 of 100

   of WA's boat fishers fish the closed West Coast zone

   Step by step

   1. 1 Nobody can count fish under the sea
   2. 2 Scientists gather catches, fish ages and surveys
   3. 3 A model turns those samples into an estimate of the fish left
   4. 4 The estimate is checked against a safe level
   5. 5 Below that level, the catch is cut or stopped

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Sudan's farmland and Ethiopia's dam

     No river data were shared, so scientists estimated the flows with a model and satellite pictures, and the loss of floodplain farming comes from that estimate.

   • Antibiotic traces in Ugandan beef

     419 samples stand in for a whole district's meat, and the call for tighter rules rests on what those samples showed.

   • Tanzania's avocado forecast

     US officials estimate 250,000 tonnes from the land being picked and the age of the orchards, before the fruit is weighed.

   • Kashmir's shrinking saffron harvest

     Growers say fake Kashmiri labels keep the spice on shop shelves, which hides how small the real harvest has become.

   Where you've seen this

   Elections

   pollsters ask about a thousand people to estimate how millions will vote

   Wildlife parks

   rangers count elephants from a plane over strips of land and scale the count up

   Disease outbreaks

   health officials test a sample of people to estimate how many are infected

   The catch

   A model can be wrong in either direction. It can say fish are scarce when they are recovering, or plentiful when they are collapsing.

   And the whole of it

   The shark fisher, the angler, the fish shop and the scientist all depend on a number none of them can check by looking. Anyone in Western Australia who buys local fish is living by that same estimate.

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     How common antibiotic residues are in beef beyond Gomba.

     All 419 samples came from one Ugandan district. [8]

1. 07

   Sudan's floodplain farming fell as Ethiopia filled its dam

   What happened

   • Farming on Sudan's floodplains fell by 4% to 50% while Ethiopia filled its giant dam, a study found. [9]
   • Ethiopia's big dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, was first filled from 2020 to 2024. [9]
   • It held 95% of its storage by the end of the 2024-25 water year. [9]
   • With no data shared between the countries, the team estimated the river's flows with a model. [9]
   • It rebuilt how the reservoir filled from satellite pictures. [9]
   • The dam made 3,000 gigawatt hours of power, against 12,000 planned, mainly because its turbines came late. [9]
   • Very wet years and other steps largely spared the countries downstream, the study says. [9]

   Gigawatt hours

   Planned12,000

   Made3,000

   How it unfolded

   1. 2020 filling starts
   2. 2024 first filling ends

   Why it matters

   Sudan's floodplain farmers farmed less land. [9] Egypt's High Aswan Dam stayed high and made about as much power as before. [9]

   How it works

   Hydrologists fill missing river data with a model, a simulation of the river built from other records. [9]

   Seen it before

   You can tell how much juice a friend drank by checking the carton, without watching them.

   No river data were shared, so scientists estimated the flows with a model and satellite pictures, and the loss of floodplain farming comes from that estimate.

   The idea, in story 06: Why a fishing ban rests on an estimate of fish nobody has seen →

   The truth

   • All 5 authors once worked for Sudan's hydraulics research centre or its dams unit, they declare. [9]
   • Who pays Sudan's floodplain farmers — They lost farmed land in the years the dam upstream was filling. [9]
2. 08

   India's post offices start selling farmers' produce

   What happened

   • India plans to let farmer groups in 3 more states sell produce through post offices, Mint reports. [6]
   • The groups store goods at a post office and list them on MyStore, an online shop. [6]
   • When an order comes in, India Post packs it and sends it. [6]
   • India has 164,999 post offices, and over 90% of them are in rural areas. [6]

   How it unfolded

   The scheme began in Ahmedabad in November 2025, and has since helped 5 farmer groups sell pulses, cumin and pickles. [6]

   It has since spread to Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh. [6]

   1. Nov 2025 Ahmedabad pilot
   2. Since Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh
   3. Next 3 more states

   Why it matters

   A wider rollout could reach about 10,000 farmer groups and cut their reliance on bulk buyers. [6]

   How it works

   Economists call it cutting out the middleman: selling straight to buyers keeps more of the price.

   Seen it before

   Selling an old bike yourself online usually gets more than selling it to a second-hand shop.

   The truth

   • The farm ministry did not answer Mint's emails about the plan. [6]
   • Who gains India Post — It earns shipping fees on farm goods, charged by weight with a bulk discount. [6]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether India Post's farm scheme really reaches 3 more states.

     Two unnamed people described the plan to Mint, and the farm ministry did not answer its emails. [6]

   Good news

   • Mahesh Karangia of a Jamnagar farmer group said 'It has helped us expand our market reach.' [6]
3. 09

   Kashmir's saffron harvest shrinks to a third

   What happened

   • Kashmir and Jammu grew 2.6 tonnes of saffron in 2023-24, down from 8 tonnes in 2010-11. [4]
   • Saffron is the red threads inside a purple crocus flower, picked by hand before sunrise. [4]
   • About 4,000 flowers make 28 grams of saffron, which helps make it one of the world's dearest spices. [4]
   • In 2025 one Pampore farmer, Mohammad Asif, harvested nearly 250 grams, against close to 1.5 kilograms in 2024. [4]

   2010-118 tonnes

   2023-242.6 tonnes

   How it unfolded

   Researchers link the fall to dry weather in August and September, when the crop needs rain. [4]

   Roads, homes and shops have also been built on saffron land. [4]

   Why it matters

   Growers say fake Kashmiri saffron in shops hides how far the real harvest has fallen. [4]

   How it works

   Food scientists call this food fraud: selling a cheaper product under a dearer name. [4]

   Kashmiri saffron can fetch $4 or more a gram, well above Iranian saffron. [4]

   Seen it before

   A fake football shirt sells at the real shirt's price when nobody checks the label.

   Growers say fake Kashmiri labels keep the spice on shop shelves, which hides how small the real harvest has become.

   The idea, in story 06: Why a fishing ban rests on an estimate of fish nobody has seen →

   The truth

   • A government official told the BBC that certification has improved checks. [4] Growers say the rules are still enforced unevenly. [4]
   • Who gains Traders who repack Iranian saffron as Kashmiri — Buyers ask for Kashmiri saffron because the name sells, a Delhi trader told the BBC. [4]
   • Who pays Kashmiri saffron growers — Fake Kashmiri labels weaken buyers' trust and hurt farmers' income, a food scientist in Kashmir says. [4]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much of the saffron sold as Kashmiri is really imported.

     A Delhi trader says imported saffron is repacked under Kashmiri labels, and the BBC report gives no figure for how much. [4]

   Good news

   • Early research on growing saffron indoors shows steadier flowering, the BBC reports. [4]
4. 10

   Tanzania's avocado crop set to grow 25%

   What happened

   • US farm officials in Dar es Salaam forecast Tanzania will grow 250,000 tonnes of avocados in 2026. [7]
   • That is 25% more than the 200,000 tonnes grown in 2025. [7]
   • More land is being picked, and young orchards are maturing, the report says. [7]
   • Small farmers grow about 90% of the crop. [7]
   • Exports should rise 13.6% to 40,000 tonnes, with the EU and India among the buyers. [7]

   Why it matters

   Farmers get $1 to $1.50 a kilo, while shops in Tanzania charge $3 to $5. [7]

   How it works

   Exporters call it the cold chain: keeping fruit cold from farm to shop. [7] Tanzania's is still limited, the report says. [7]

   Late-season fruit for India and China increasingly flies instead of sailing, to keep its quality. [7] Air freight costs more than sea freight. [7]

   Seen it before

   Ice cream bought on a hot day needs a cool bag to get home in one piece.

   US officials estimate 250,000 tonnes from the land being picked and the age of the orchards, before the fruit is weighed.

   The idea, in story 06: Why a fishing ban rests on an estimate of fish nobody has seen →

   The truth

   • Who gains Avocado traders in Tanzania — Most say they are satisfied with their profits, the US report found. [7]
   • Who pays Tanzania's avocado growers — Many report too little farming advice, pests and disease, the US report says. [7]
5. 11

   A humic acid fertiliser lifts wheat yields in a Chinese trial

   What happened

   • Adding a little humic acid to urea fertiliser raised wheat yields by 7.0% to 23.3% in a Chinese trial. [10]
   • Urea is a common nitrogen fertiliser, and the humic acid is mixed in as it is made. [10]
   • China already makes about 1 million tonnes of it a year. [10]
   • The trial grew winter wheat on the North China Plain at 2 fertiliser rates. [10]
   • Farmers' profits rose by 8.8% to 29.8%. [10]
   • Greenhouse gas from the fields fell 10.1% to 23.3%, as less nitrogen escaped into the air. [10]

   Who is involved

   • The research team trial on the North China Plain

   Why it matters

   The study says cutting nitrogen losses is key to getting the most from fertiliser. [10]

   How it works

   Soil scientists call it nitrogen use efficiency: how much of the fertiliser ends up in the crop.

   Seen it before

   A leaky watering can wastes water before it reaches the plants.

   The truth

   • Making the new fertiliser gives off more greenhouse gas than plain urea, the study found. [10] Over its whole life it still came out lower. [10]

   Good news

   • In a Chinese field trial, wheat grown with humic acid urea gave 7.0% to 23.3% more grain. Greenhouse gas from those fields fell by 10.1% to 23.3%.
6. 12

   Scientists find what turns a locust into a swarmer

   What happened

   • Chinese scientists studied how crowding turns a grassland locust, Oedaleus asiaticus, into its destructive swarming form. [11]
   • Groups of 60 locusts made the most switches to the swarming form. [11]
   • The younger the insects, the more of them switched, and adults never did. [11]
   • Switched locusts kept their swarming looks even when they were put back alone. [11]
   • Silencing any one of 4 genes sharply cut the switching. [11]

   Who is involved

   The work came from China's Institute of Grassland Research in Inner Mongolia and Qingdao Agricultural University. [11]

   • Institute of Grassland Research Inner Mongolia
   • Qingdao Agricultural University

   Why it matters

   The swarming form threatens crops, grazing animals and local economies. [11]

   How it works

   Entomologists, who study insects, call it a phase change: crowding turns a loner into a swarmer.

   Seen it before

   A quiet pupil can get loud in a packed, noisy classroom.

   The truth

   • The locusts were caught wild and bred for under 2 generations, the authors note. [11] So the change is shown as a response to crowding, not as fixed in the genes. [11]
7. 13

   Cadmium found in West Bank farm soils near waste sites

   What happened

   • Researchers tested 80 soil samples from 5 farm sites in the West Bank near wastewater or a landfill. [15]
   • Of the 5 sites, 3 were classed as polluted. [15]
   • Cadmium, a heavy metal, was the biggest worry at one site. [15]
   • There it made up 93% of the soil's risk score for wildlife and plants. [15]

   Who is involved

   The team came from Germany's Juelich research centre and An-Najah National University in Nablus. [15]

   • Juelich research centre Germany
   • An-Najah National University Nablus

   Why it matters

   The sites are farmland, so the authors name cadmium there as a priority for more checks. [15]

   How it works

   Soil scientists call this a screening study: a first look that shows where to test next.

   Seen it before

   A smoke alarm tells you to look for a fire, not what is burning.

   The truth

   • The study does not show whether the metals reach crops, food or people. [15]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the cadmium in West Bank farm soil reaches crops or people.

     The study was a first screening and says it does not show food-chain exposure. [15]

8. 14

   A deal could close a gap in WA's pest fence

   What happened

   • Farmers and the Ngadju people, traditional owners of land east of Norseman, signed a deal to close a fence gap. [3]
   • WA's state barrier fence runs 1,650 kilometres from Kalbarri to Salmon Gums. [3]
   • It is meant to keep pest animals out of WA's main farming and grazing land. [3]
   • A 137-kilometre gap east of Norseman has stayed open for years without the owners' agreement. [3]
   • Scott Pickering of the Esperance Biosecurity Association called the agreement 'a game changer'. [3]

   Who is involved

   • The Ngadju people traditional owners

   Why it matters

   He said the agreement should let work on the gap begin. [3]

   How it works

   Biosecurity officers call this exclusion: keeping pests out at a line, before they reach farms.

   Seen it before

   A garden fence with one hole still lets the neighbour's dog in.

   Good news

   • Farmers and the Ngadju people signed an agreement that should let work begin on closing a 137-kilometre gap in Western Australia's 1,650-kilometre barrier fence against pest animals.